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    What Does Carlos Correa's Return Mean for the 2023 Twins?

    Nash Walker

    By Nash Walker

    Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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    The long-standing saga is finally over. Was it worth the treacherous, annoying wait? I certainly think so. The Twins have agreed to terms with Carlos Correa in a stunning twist to the craziest free agency story in recent memory. Now onto the baseball: how does Correa impact the 2023 roster?

     

    On the surface, Carlos Correa’s return isn’t an addition. He played 136 games for the Twins in 2022, hitting .291/.366/.467 (140 OPS+) while producing 5.4 b-Wins Above Replacement. Correa lead the team in bWAR and OPS (.834), mostly thanks to a scalding September. 

    While “adding” a player of Correa’s ilk is always exciting, many Twins fans may be understandably more skeptical of his impact on the roster. The Twins won only 78 games last year, with Correa mostly healthy; why should we expect more with a similar group in 2023?

    The Twins collapsed late in the summer, making Correa’s torrid finish a forgotten tale. The fresh memory on many minds is Correa’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position when the Twins needed him all summer. Through July 1st, Correa posted a wRC+ of 85 with runners in scoring position, well below the league average of 106. 

    Naturally, Correa posted a sterling 128 wRC+ with runners in scoring position after July 1st. We’ve learned through study (and this book) that great hitters are great hitters no matter the situation. Correa’s career OPS with runners in scoring position is .818. His career OPS with no men on base? .825. 

    Correa had a tremendous second half in 2022, hitting .304/.380/.486 (149 wRC+) while producing 2.4 f-Wins Above Replacement. Correa was top-10 in the American League in Win Probability Added after the All-Star break. Correa's slower start could be due to a shortened spring training, heightened pressure on a quasi-one-year deal, or simple batted-ball luck. Whatever it was, Correa put it in the rearview after the first half. 

    While it’s understandable to question Correa’s true impact, his .730 OPS with RISP in 2022 is due for positive regression. He should drive in more runs and provide more overall impact at the plate throughout the season. Trust the numbers here, including his highest hard-hit rate since 2017 (44.7%). 

    The concern with his right ankle isn't insignificant. Two teams took the PR hit rather than commit huge money to Correa. Something must be up, right? It's impossible to know for sure. Correa may have a rough time through his 30s... or he may not. In a refreshing change of pace, the Twins are taking the risk. Players of Correa's stature are rarely available to the Twins in free agency. 

    It’s easy to forget the hype surrounding Correa when the Twins signed him last March. We’re honestly talking about a generational shortstop. Through their age-27 seasons, only three shortstops have more bWAR than Correa since the Senators moved to Minnesota: Alex Rodríguez, Robin Yount, and Cal Ripken Jr. 

    Among those shortstops who logged at least 3,500 plate appearances, Correa ranks 3rd in OPS+ behind only A-Rod and Hanley Ramírez. Since 2019, Correa’s 39 Defensive Runs Saved are the most among all shortstops. He’s a unique talent, evidenced by at least two teams offering him over $300 million in contracts this winter. 

    FanGraphs ZiPS projects Correa for 5.6 fWAR in 2023. That’s the highest among Twins and a full 4.2 more than Kyle Farmer. Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. 

    The "Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings" from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs pegged the Twins for 81 wins before the Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Joey Gallo signings. We can reasonably expect that projected win total to rise at least four notches after these moves. As currently constructed, the Twins look like an 85-86 win team. Add a frontline starter via trade, and that number will approach the desired 90. Correa was a key piece as one of the best free agents available. 

    Beyond his impact on the field, the Twins will welcome Correa, the person, back with open arms. Byron Buxton, José Miranda, and countless other team members spoke highly of their new friend and teammate throughout the 2022 season. Correa’s postseason experience and pedigree - things we lauded him for less than a year ago - are needed more than ever. 

    It’s natural to wonder if the Twins are truly getting *better* with the move to retain their star shortstop. Every season and roster is different, and the Twins are much better today than they were yesterday. Continue to acquire great players, and great things tend to happen. Correa is a great player. 

    Excitement is warranted. 

    Want to play the role of Twins general manager? Check out our free-to-use "You're The GM" offseason tool and build your own Twins roster!

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    Nash Walker has contributed at Twins Daily since 2019. He hosted a daily podcast, Locked On Twins, for 3.5 years and nearly 1,000 episodes.
    Follow Nash Walker on Twitter: @NashWalker9
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    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 6,873

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    On 1/10/2023 at 8:53 PM, DocBauer said:

    WOW! I thought this might actually happen until those last minute reports the Mets thought they would work it out. This is a tremendous and completely surprising deal! I expected the deal to be front loaded, but 6yrs and $200M guaranteed was just never expected! And there is control over the last 4yrs for both parties, along with smaller AAV. 

    *Just my opinion, I won't give credit to the FO having this fall in their lap. I DO give them credit for staying in contact and working out a good deal for both sides. I also DO give them credit for chasing him in the first place. Again, my opinion, the Twins initial offer WAS very fair based on the market the past few years. The fact that the market went NUTS this year doesn't, IMO, diminish the fact that they dove in to the deep end this year.

    WHAT DOES CARLOS CORREA'S RETURN MEAN FOR THE 2023 TWINS?

    1] However it turned out, their perception changed simply because they took a plunge in to the deep end, and were winners in the end.

    2] The Twins have one of the best SS in all of MLB, and arguably one of the best players overall. SS is set for 6yrs with a great player.

    3] The defense is better.

    4] The offense is better.

    5] Team leadership remains remains from having him. In his ONE YEAR, he was so invested in the team that he knew all the top milb talent. And he openly stated that if brought back, there were other things he wanted to do to work with the team going forward as a leader.

    6] The infield depth is better now as Farmer becomes a valuable and versatile piece for 2yrs instead of being a solid but not great starting SS. It even puts less pressure on Gordon as the only viable infield utility player on the roster. (No disrespect toward Arraez being able to fill in).

    7] The FUTURE infield, and maybe even OF, depth and versatility improves. Lewis can now take all of his talent to 2B or 3B, or OF, or ALL, and still backup SS. Lee can play 3B, or 2B, and also cover SS. Miranda can cover both infield corners. A healthy AK can play 1B and corner OF. Martin can play across the OF, and possibly still cover 3B and 2B, which he played in college. And I'm not even certain where Julien fits in, but he's a top prospect with the talent to fit in somewhere.

    8] While I don't necessarily want to trade any of our young talent to add elsewhere...I love having a ton of abundant talent available...the truth is the Twins have suddenly gained the ability to do so.

    So yeah, this move changes a LOT!

    NOW, more than ever, the FO can't stop. Go grab Mancini for a RH bat who can play some corner OF and 1B. If the FO has belief in McCutchon, or someone else that's left, FINE. But get a RH bat that the roster needs. Go grab ONE quality RP to INSURE the pen has enough talent and depth. I'd grab Fulmer. But there's a couple really good LH also available. Who do you want? Go get him! I don't know you can get 2, but go grab at least ONE. The best pen you can put together also makes the rotation better. 

    I'm deliberately ignoring a trade for a rotation arm because it's beyond THIS topic point. There's still $ available to add a couple pieces without blowing up payroll. A combination of players and prospects MIGHT allow to make a big trade still. If it's smart. But right now, with Correa back in the fold, you can't just sit back and NOT make a couple more obvious additions.

    Chafin - Hand - Fulmer (2 of these 3)

    McCutchen if only spend on one reliever.

    Kepler - Pagan - Celestino & whoever else needed to get a Starting Pitcher. If we must move Polanco, Farmer can handle 2nd until youth is ready every day in ‘24.



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