Tom Froemming

Now that the dust has settled a little bit on this one, yes, that is definitely a big takeaway. Flip the perspective and just think how Cleveland must feel today. They had to endure a 16-inning game AND lost. All the frustration from the Twins in not being able to scratch across more runs is somewhat lifted by the fact they still won. Yes, it's just one game, and that Cleveland team and manager are a bunch of pros, but this is the kind of loss that you could see potentially having a carryover effect. Or maybe that's just wishful thinking.

We know Jose Berrios can pass any physical test you put in front of him, but Wednesday night he passed an emotional test with flying colors. Berrios was in control and fellow Puerto Rico native Eddie Rosario scored the game-winning run in the 16th inning on a walk-off hit by Ryan LaMarre.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)Download attachment: Snapshot418.png Download attachment: WinEx418.png That’s right, the Sire of Fort Myers became the Hero of Puerto Rico tonight. LaMarre came off the bench and delivered three hits, including the game winner. Alan Busenitz managed to keep Cleveland off the board for two more innings, giving the bats another opportunity to strike. Rosario led off the 16th with a single, Logan Morrison delivered a base hit of his own and Eduardo Escobar was intentionally walked. That brought up LaMarre, who had one career RBI prior to collecting his first walk-off hit. Byron Buxton, who sat last night due to migraines, was placed on the 10-day DL earlier today and Max Kepler left the game in the 10th inning with a sore right knee. Rosario was looked over by the training staff after his single in the 16th inning, but appeared to be fine as he advanced from first to third on Morrison’s single. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen418.png Next Three Games Fri at TB, 6:10 pm CT Sat at TB 5:10 pm CT Sun at TB 12:10 pm CT Last Three Games CLE 6, MIN 1: Kluber, Lindor Outshine Twins in Puerto Rico MIN 4, CHW 0: Mauer Reaches 2,000 Hits, Leads Twins to Victory MIN 9, HOU 8: Max to the Rescue! More From Twins Daily Twins Minor League Report (4/18): Wiel, Gordon Stay Hot as Lookouts Sweep Doubleheader Click here to view the article

I believe the overall run expectancy based on the data from 2010-15 says your expected runs that inning jumps from .319 to .429. Here's a link to the Run Expectancy Matrix. With 2-outs and a runner on 2B, average number of runs: .319 With 2-outs and runners on 1B and 2B, average number of runs is .429. As far as walks go, I'll take one in pretty much any situation from any batter. If his teammates get out and no runs score, that's their fault. Don't blame it on the guy who reached safely. The only way an inning ends is by recording three outs. A hitter's ability to simply not get out is still an underrated skill. Joe Mauer is a very good hitter, but his career BABIP is .342, meaning he gets out 65.8 percent of the time he puts the ball in play. Gimme a walk all day, every day.

The leverage stuff is based on hard numbers. Here's some more info from B-Ref on win expectancy and leverage index. I believe they define a high-leverage situation as anytime the leverage index is 1.5 or higher. Only 19.2 percent of Mauer's career plate appearances fall into that high leverage bucket, so it's not like they're casting a very wide net.

I thought that was pretty silly. Obviously they couldn't have seen this many postponements, but you had to figure there was going to be at least one.

Jake Odorizzi’s night changed in a hurry, Corey Kluber was doing his thing and a Puerto Rican native had a special moment … but, sadly, it wasn’t one of our guys. The Twins dropped the opening game of the Puerto Rico Series, but tomorrow is La MaKina night!Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)Download attachment: Snapshot417.png Download attachment: WinEx417.png Odorizzi was really good … until he wasn’t. He held Cleveland scoreless through 4 2/3 innings and had six strikeouts, then he gave up a double and a home run before recording the final out of the fifth. He came back out for the sixth and served up homers to the first two batters he faced. It went from pitcher’s duel to slugfest in the blink of an eye. The first of those home runs was hit by Puerto Rico product Francisco Lindor. It was a pretty cool moment, I guess. If you’re into that sorta thing. I dunno, probably would’ve been a lot cooler if it had been Eddie Rosario. Unfortunately, the Twins had to face Corey Kluber, the best pitcher in baseball, tonight. Over his last 26 starts entering this game, Kluber had a 1.62 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over 189 1/3 innings while holding opponents to a .171/.209/.277 line. His 2.10 FIP over that span is the best in baseball by a wide margin. KluBot was excellent yet again, holding the Twins to one run over 6 2/3 innings. Brian Dozier knocked him out of the game with an RBI double. It didn’t get any easier for the Twins from there, as Andrew Miller entered the game and was followed by Cody Allen. Max Kepler had a double, a walk and scored the Twins’ only run. Joe Mauer drew a pair of walks. Tyler Kinley threw a scoreless ninth inning. Byron Buxton was out due to migraines. Max slid over to center and Robbie Grossman played right. He was 0-for-4 with a strikeout and looked out of place in the outfield, though it’s not like he badly misplayed anything. Grossman is 2-for-18 with no walks to start the season. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:Download attachment: Bullpen417.png Next Three Games Weds vs. CLE, 6:10 pm CT (Puerto Rico Series) Fri at TB, 6:10 pm CT Sat at TB, 5:10 pm CT Last Three Games MIN 4, CHW 0: Mauer Reaches 2,000 Hits, Leads Twins to Victory MIN 9, HOU 8: Max to the Rescue! MIN 4, HOU 1: Odorizzi, Twins Battle Their Way to Victory More From Twins Daily Twins Minor League Report (4/17): Wiel Walks it Off to Back Littell Twins vs. Indians Series Preview Puerto Rico Series Comes With Added Importance Click here to view the article

Here are the top 10 pitchers drafted that year: Mark Prior (16.6 bWAR) Dewon Brazelton (-3.1 bWAR) Gavin Floyd (15.6 bWAR) Josh Karp (0 MLB innings) Chris Smith (0 MLB innings) John Van Benschoten (-3.6 bWAR) Colt Griffin (0 MLB innings) Kenny Baugh (0 MLB innings) Mike Jones (0 MLB innings) Kris Honel (0 MLB innings) Ouch.

Love seeing the bullpens side-by-side here. Let's hope tonight's game goes 23 innings, then we'll have Cleveland right where we want them with that nine-man pen

It seems to me that Joe's biggest enemy is going to be the limit. He's going to need a lot of guys to get elected or drop off the ballot between now and when he appears. BBWAA members can only vote for 10 players. Here are the 10 guys who came the closest to election this year: Edgar Martinez Mike Mussina Roger Clemens Barry Bonds Curt Schilling Omar Vizquel Larry Walker Fred McGriff Manny Ramirez Jeff Kent Some of those guys are going to get in, but there will be more players added to the ballot. This is one of the many problems I have with the HoF. The question isn't going to be is Joe Mauer a Hall of Famer, it's going to be is he one of the 10 best players on the ballot?

We could put in links to their MiLB.com profiles, would that be helpful?

Thanks for the feedback. This is what I call the Saturday Speed Round edition of the minors reports. Hopefully it still has all the stuff you'd expect from the regular format, but it shaves a little bit of time off writing it. Saturday's can be tough, especially once the short season leagues start. A left groin strain. At least it's not an arm injury.

The three Twins affiliates who played Saturday all won close ballgames. LaMonte Wade and Nick Gordon delivered in the clutch for the Lookouts. Aaron Slegers, Adalberto Mejia and Phil Hughes were all in action. Ryan Mason was with a new team, but still doing big things out of the bullpen.TRANSACTIONS Ryan LaMarre was optioned to Rochester (but you'll be happy to know that he just keeps hitting). Brady Anderson was sent back to Fort Myers from Rochester. RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 4, Gwinnett 2 Box Score W: Aaron Slegers (6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K) SV: Matt Magill (1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) HR: Brock Stassi (1) Multi-hit games: Ryan Lamarre (2-for-3, BB, RBI) Gregorio Petit (2-for-4, 3B, 2 R) It took the Red Wings’ offense some time to get rolling, so it was good Aaron Slegers brought his A game. He pitched six shutout innings in a game that was tied at 0-0 through five innings. Rochester built a 4-0 lead, but Adalberto Mejia ran into some trouble in his relief appearance. He pitched clean innings in the seventh and eighth frames, but things got interesting in the ninth. Mejia issued a leadoff walk, the next batter reached on an error which was followed with an RBI single. Mejia was charged with one earned run on a hit, two walks and a hit batter over his two innings, but he also struck out four batters. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 3, Pensacola 2 Box Score W: Todd Van Steensel (2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) SV: Omar Bencomo (2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K) SP: Lewis Thorpe (4 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K) HR: None Multi-hit games: LaMonte Wade (2-for-4, 2 RBI) Nick Gordon (2-for-4, RBI, SB) The Lookouts entered the fifth inning trailing 2-0 but rallied to take the lead. T.J White led off the frame with a single and Brent Rooker followed suit. Brian Navarreto advanced them both on a sac bunt, then Ryan Walker lived up to his name and drew a base on balls to load ‘em up. Tanner English went down swinging, bringing LaMonte Wade up with the bases juiced and two outs. He delivered a two-run, game-tying single and Nick Gordon capped the inning by driving in the go-ahead run on a single of his own. Lewis Thorpe gave up two runs over four innings, one of them unearned due to his own throwing error. The bullpen shut out the Blue Wahoos from there, with Todd Van Steensel (two innings) Anthony McIver (one inning) and Omar Bencomo (two innings) protecting the one-run lead. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 5, Tampa 4 Box Score W: Phil Hughes (5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K) SV: Ryan Mason (2 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K) HR: None Multi-hit games: Aaron Whitefield (2-for-4, 2B, R, SB) Jimmy Kerrigan (2-for-4, 2B, 2 R) Phil Hughes pitched five shutout innings and 44 of his 61 pitches were for strikes (72.1 percent). Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press passed along on Twitter that this lines Hughes up to return April 24 at Yankee Stadium. Similar to the Rochester game, the Miracle also jumped out to a 4-0 lead. Colton Davis, the first man out of the bullpen ran into some trouble, but Ryan Mason righted the ship. Mason, making his first appearance since being called up from Cedar Rapids, entered the game with the Miracle clinging to a one-run lead. There were two men on base and two outs in the seventh inning. Mason struck out the next batter swinging to end the threat. It was Mason’s game from there, as he closed things out to earn his third save already in this young season (he had two with the Kernels). KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids vs. Clinton Postponed (rain) STARS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day: Ryan Mason Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day: LaMonte Wade TOP PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects performed: #3 Nick Gordon: 2-for-4, RBI, SB #7 Brent Rooker: 1-for-4, R, K #12 Lewis Thorpe: 4 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K #13 Lewin Diaz: 0-for-4, K #14 LaMonte Wade: 2-for-4, 2 RBI, K #17 Travis Blankenhorn: 0-for-3, BB, RBI SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester at Gwinnett (12:05 pm CT), Fernando Romero Chattanooga at Pensacola (1:05 pm CT), Kohl Stewart Fort Myers vs. Tampa (3:00 pm CT), Clark Beeker Cedar Rapids vs. Clinton (2:05 pm CT), Blayne Enlow Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss the games. Click here to view the article

This is an updated version of a post that originally appeared in the blog section over the offseason. We felt like the discussion was worth revisiting this afternoon in the wake of Joe collecting his 2,000th hit. Another Twins Daily piece from the offseason that's worthy of mention is John's Report from the Fort that made it sound like Mr. Mauer intended to stick around awhile longer. Also, Andrew put together a nice overview on some things that need to happen for Mauer to return to the Twins in 2019.

You're right, and Buxton had a huge impact on the bases that inning. Singled, stole second, advanced to third on a fly out to the center fielder and then scored on a groundball hit to the shortstop while the infield was drawn in. A very small percentage of players would have been able to make all that happen. The White Sox made some poor throws that allowed him to get to third and then home, but it definitely seemed like they were feeling the pressure of Buxton on the bases. On replay, I still can't believe it took them over three and a half minutes to review that Berrios-Anderson pickoff and they still got it wrong.

Gracias, fixed. I had seven on the mind last night, so I shorted him four Ks. Either that or I ran out of fingers and toes

Sometimes milestones are anticlimactic, but this one was pretty neat. With the Twins leading 2-0 in the seventh inning, Joe Mauer ripped a single up the middle for his 2,000th career hit. That drove in two runs and came in front of his home fans. If you ask for more than that, you’re just being greedy.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot412.png Download attachment: WinEx412.png Of course, in order to get to 2,000 Mauer had to get 1,999. He delivered an RBI single in the third inning and also walked in the first. Berrios was incredible. He tied a career high with 11 strikeouts and did not walk a batter over seven shutout innings. Of his 99 pitches, 73 were for strikes. On the season, Jose has 24 strikeouts, one walk and an ERA of 2.18. Wow. He’s on quite a roll heading into the Puerto Rico series. According to Baseball Savant, Berrios racked up 17 swinging strikes tonight, 11 of them on the 37 curveballs he threw. That pitch is developing into one of the more formidable offerings in baseball. Brian Dozier had an RBI double and scored twice. He has a hit in every game so far this season. Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario also doubled. Byron Buxton stole a pair of bases, giving him four on the year already. He didn't swipe his fourth base until May 18 last season. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen412.png Next Three Games Fri vs. CHW 7:10 pm CT Sat vs. CHW 1:10 pm CT Sun vs. CHW 1:10 pm CT Last Three Games MIN 9, HOU 8: Max to the Rescue! MIN 4, HOU 1: Odorizzi, Twins Battle Their Way to Victory HOU 2, MIN 0: Failure to Launch More From Twins Daily Minors Report A Milestone For Minnesota And Mauer Logan Morrison: Bad or Just Bad Luck? Changing Timeline: Is It Time To Start Worrying About Santana? Click here to view the article

The gmLI shows who has been asked to pitch in the highest-leverage situations, so I think that's an interesting trend to note. Of course that can all change. WPA isn't predictive at all, but it's an interesting stat to show what has happened so far But I didn't say "hey everybody, draw concrete conclusions off these numbers!!!" Nerdy stats are fun, loosen up If we can't talk about anything over a 10-game stretch, this site is going to be really boring.

If tonight's game is close things could get interesting. I wouldn't expect Duke or Rodney to be available to pitch for a third-consecutive game. It also seems to me like it'd be for the best to give Hildy a break if possible. Reed was outstanding yesterday, but he's still recovering from strep throat. I have no problem with Molitor leaning on his top guys to get through the Houston series instead of trying to save bullets for the White Sox, but here's hoping Jose Berrios has a nice start.

Here's some fun bullpen nerdery to pass along: gmLI (avg. leverage index when pitcher enters the game) 1.74 Rodney 1.64 Reed 1.50 Hildenberger 1.47 Duke 1.06 Rogers 0.84 Pressly 0.16 Moya 0.01 Kinley WPA (pitcher's impact on win expectancy) 0.61 Reed (ranks 12th among all relievers) 0.19 Rogers 0.04 Pressly 0.02 Moya 0.00 Kinley -0.12 Hildenberger -0.19 Duke -0.28 Rodney

Fixed, thank you.

You should be able to see all the usual bells & whistles now.