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Turd Furgeson

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Everything posted by Turd Furgeson

  1. Turd Furgeson
    Buxton ranked 18th? Fail.
  2. Turd Furgeson
    Andrew McCutchen is a player he's often compared to. But honestly, who cares about comps? They never really fit very well because every player is unique in some way. That said, the Trout comp isn't very far fetched. At least he'd compare well to the Trout we thought we'd get before he started hitting 30 home runs his rookie year. Buxton has a much stronger arm than Trout, and is probably faster but he doesn't have the power that Trout does now.
  3. Turd Furgeson
    Well, not that you can't take a pitcher at the top of the draft, but I'd prefer to take one that's of the Taillion, Bundy, Cole breed. If there's a position prospect who's equal, I'd generally prefer them because their success rate is much higher. I'd say traditionally, to load up on stand out arms in the latin american free agency market, and in later rounds of the draft, but to be honest I'm not caught up on where MLB is with all of that currently.
  4. Turd Furgeson
    This is incorrect. At least most sources, thought Buxton was the best player in the draft let alone the best pick available at #2. Most saw Appel as a #2 or #3 starter as his ceiling, not a #1 pitcher. I agree with your second paragraph though. The Twins have multiple needs. Pitching stands out, obviously but don't reach for a pitcher if you don't have to and everyone should bear in mind that the odds are heavily against said pitcher being a positive contributor in the majors. Particularly if that pitcher is drafted out of high school.
  5. Turd Furgeson
    Yep, as others have said it's all about Taveras being at a higher level, and his age. The guy has very special contact skills with some pretty legit power as well. Buxton is likely a better prospect, but he's only at low A so Keith isn't ready to put him at #1 yet. It's not really a big deal because by next year Buxton may be #1 on the majority of lists and Sano will be top 5.
  6. Turd Furgeson
    Okay. That just makes me giddy.
  7. Turd Furgeson
    Hitting the ball to all fields is a good approach to hitting. I don't know that the Twins have actually ever said, "don't pull the ball, ever!" but a lot of people seem to think that's the case. Honestly, the vast majority of success or failure is on the part of the player. Whether that be their athletic inability, their mental makeup, their poise, it doesn't matter. Coaching helps, sure but I don't believe it's the tipping point for whether hitters succeed or fail. Joe Benson may have felt pretty helpless in this organization after a bad start and then seeing that the Twins have a lot of other outfield talent. That could have been affecting his approach to his at bats. I think there have always been questions about his swing and miss. Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects - Royals Review That has a pretty good breakdown of prospect failure and success rates. Benson was a fringy top 100 prospect, those guys fail a lot. They are on the top 100 because they have some tools and have shown something in games.
  8. Turd Furgeson
    Pitch Framing has likely been a thing for years and years. I've only been following baseball prospecting for about 4-5 years and in that time, I've read a lot about a prospects ability to frame pitches is an essential skill of a catcher. I didn't even realize that stats were been kept for it.
  9. Turd Furgeson
    Sano and Machado are not comparable. Machado is an American born player. Sano is a international signee and they typically take longer to develop. Sano will be up before he's 22. Sano also JUST turned 20. His birthday is in May. He'll be up when he's 21, barring some freak regression or injury.
  10. Turd Furgeson
    Barry Bonds career walk per season average: 116 Barry Bonds 2004 season intentional walk total: 120 Delmon Young career walk total: 150 Ole Delmy's got him beat by a bit now.
  11. Turd Furgeson
    Well, given that you're speaking to people who frequent a Twins message board and that seems to be the fans you're referring to, they probably have a decent grasp of the prospect rankings of their own prospects. They probably realize that they might have the talent to jump levels quicker than a lot of others. The bottom line, we haven't had a Machado level prospect in our system since Mauer, or more recently Buxton. Buxton's first full year in the minors, he's starting in low A, and he'll almost undoubtedly receive a midseason promotion to high A. Next year, he could start in AA or, he'll be in AA by a midseason promotion. With the likelihood of him making it to the majors the year after. All in all, that would be moving through the minors just as fast as Machado did. I'm not really sure what the problem is. Did you expect Hicks to be pushed through the minor league system inspite of the fact that he wasn't ready? You are looking at Machado and comparing him to players like Sano, Rosario and Hicks and complaining that they aren't moving through the levels at equal speeds. The reality is that all of them are on their own development path and none of them are as good of a prospect as Machado. You guys are aiming your criticism in the wrong direction. The problem was the unwillingness to spend money in the draft. Teams that spend money in the draft, generally get good prospects. The Twins have been quite active in the international free agent market, but this hard slotting system in the draft has benefited a team like the Twins, as it forces them to spend money.
  12. Turd Furgeson
    They wanted to make him a pitcher because his arm is amazing. Some people wanted to make Buxton a pitcher as well. If "the process" can be defined, it was going after players over slot in the draft. You need to get the talented players. After you've done that, really, the development and such is mostly going to come on the player's end. It takes time, and they need to be challenged at each level but that's where it is. Now that there is a hard slot, you basically have to sign those types of players. Who knows, in years past we may have passed on a guy on Buxton and that would have been tragic.
  13. Turd Furgeson
    Well considering that he was continuously ranked in the top 15 on a lot of prospect lists, I'd say a number of people recognized the talent. He was a high draft pick. The numbers aren't great, but you know what Bryce Harper wasn't blowing people away at all times in the minors either, he hit well in low A but was just decent in AA and AAA. There's a lot more to determining whether a player is ready than just the numbers. Yeah, if a player has video game stats you can say, he's clearly outperforming his competition but there may be other subtle things that stop someone from being promoted.
  14. Turd Furgeson
    So any team that hasn't developed a great player in the last 5 years, you can say the process isn't working? The process worked exceptionally well when they developed great players like Mauer, Santana. When's the last time Baltimore developed a player like that? Is the process truly working for Baltimore?
  15. Turd Furgeson
    Drafted players are assets. Those assets can be traded to fill positions where our team is weak. They did that with Revere not even a year ago. Imagine that we had an Austin Meadows or Aaron Hicks or what have you who may end up being considerably better than Revere was last year and they could be used to leverage a better pitcher. I will never support the idea of drafting for need unless it's between two equal prospects. Also, I will add that the free agent market can and should be used to supplement our roster, and to fill any weak spots that we have. Granted, the Twins haven't been known to do that much, historically but hopefully this is a different Twins team when some of these high profile prospects finally come up.
  16. Turd Furgeson
    You did, but you edited your post after I already posted my reply. That wasn't originally in there. That said, of course it's special, it's a friggin 70-80 tool! That would make him faster than the vast majority of the league.
  17. Turd Furgeson
    Not exactly. "He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton." John Sickels I mean, he's essentially said he has 80 speed which is amazing enough. I've just heard plenty say that Billy Hamilton is something beyond 80 speed. Though there isn't an official numbering system for it, it's somewhere beyond that.
  18. Turd Furgeson
    Who said that Buxton has 70 speed? I know I did not. Scouts generally err on the side of caution when rating players, though. They usually wait to see a player multiple times, listen to scouting reports or what have you before putting an 80 on a tool. I remember it took awhile before Sano was considered to have 80 power. That said, Gallo probably has 80 power right now, along with Sano. Harper most definitely had 80 power. Giancarlo Stanton had 80 power. Also, Buxton is not the fastest player in the minors. That would be Billy Hamilton. The guy who stole 155 bases last year.
  19. Turd Furgeson
    This is what we've been arguing with against, What is the best feature of Justin Upton? His plus plus power. He had it going into the minors when he was drafted. Byron Buxton does not have plus plus power. He could possibly have plus power maybe more if the stars align. Do you see the difference?
  20. Turd Furgeson
    Jason Parks had this to say recently: Peter (Georgia): Back on Buxton, if all things come to fruition, what kind of power/speed numbers are we talking about here? Could he reach Mike Trout levels? Jason Parks: Mike Trout is a freak and I'm hesitant to put other players in his universe, but Buxton has a crazy ceiling and I think the speed numbers could be there. I think the power will develop, but I don't see him as a 30+ HR type. Peter (Georgia): In fairness not many ppl threw 30Hr projections on Trout either, so Buxton is wait and see, but would you call the power average to plus now? Jason Parks: I wouldn't. I'd say plus potential [key word] is possible, and maybe more as he finds his body and his swing. Not that Parks is the ultimate authority on this issue of course, but he seems to echo the same sentiments that I have been.
  21. Turd Furgeson
    Let's be clear, Justin Upton has 70-80 power. There may be more that would firmly put him in the 80 camp than the 70 camp. Byron Buxton likely has 55-65 power. At least that would be the range I would expect most scouts to put him in. Still above average, to potentially well above average and that's really good for someone who profiles as an elite center field defender, base runner etc.
  22. Turd Furgeson
    So what's the argument now? You guys are throwing out Hall of Famers to draw your comparisons from. No one is saying that Buxton has no shot of ever hitting 30 home runs. To say he has BJ Upton power is to say mid 20 home run power, with the potential to touch 30. If you are saying he has Justin Upton power, that is someone who sits at 30 home runs with the potential to touch 40. There's quite a difference there. There's a lot more that goes into home run power then how big the guy is. Does he undercut the ball, does he create a lot of torque and backspin? Bat speed. Does he generate power with his legs? I mean, there's a more as well. It's a question of probability. Could Buxton sustain 30 home run seasons? I suppose there is an outside chance of that but based on what he's shown thus far, it's not likely. That's all I'm saying.
  23. Turd Furgeson
    Power potential is essentially, raw power. If anything, I would say that Upton has underperformed on his power potential/raw power a tad in the pros. Aside from this season, so far anyway. It's not just about being big. As much or more of it has to do with swing mechanics. From what I've seen, Buxton's swing is a bit more on an even plane, through the zone and you're not going to generate a lot of power with a line drive swing like that unless you have Pujols power.
  24. Turd Furgeson
    I agree with kab21 here. Justin Upton was the Bryce Harper of a few years ago, to a bit of a lesser extent but he was around the level of a prospect before he was drafted. The guy had tremendous raw power in his first year as a prospect. People don't talk about Buxton like that. He has about as much power as B.J., maybe slightly more, but he should hit for a lot better average than B.J.. If he had Justin Upton raw power, we'd be talking about the next Griffey.
  25. Turd Furgeson
    This was on the same team in the minors. I'm surprised no one else has talked about this group. You have two all-star caliber players and several others who have had lengthy careers. I will also add, Corey Koskie (same team), and Michael Cuddyer was in the minors at that time as well.
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