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Steven Buhr

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Blog Entries posted by Steven Buhr

  1. Steven Buhr
    The Minnesota Twins lost this afternoon.
     
    Ordinarily, I’d say things have reached the point where another Twins loss falls into the “dog bites man” category. It’s not exactly news.
     
    But this loss had a couple of things going for it that gave me cause to put pen to paper (figuratively, of course).
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
     
    First of all, I actually watched the game on television. Between attending Kernels games and being blacked out by MLB’s “local market” television rights policy, I don’t see many Twins games these days. I did, however, grab lunch at my local hangout and watch them lose 6-3 to the Detroit Tigers.
     
    Second, and more notably, was the day that Eddie Rosario had.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Rosario16a-600x400.jpg
    Eddie Rosario (Photo: SD Buhr)

    Rosario had a bad day. It started in the first inning when he threw to the wrong base and failed to keep a runner from advancing. He had his typical no-plate-discipline day with the bat, striking out twice, while looking bad. He failed to make a catch on a “tweener” that fell for a hit in shallow left field. And then came the top of the seventh inning.
     
    Rosario grounded a single up the middle and, a couple of batters later, found himself at second base with two outs and the Twins trailing 5-1 with Joe Mauer at the plate. That’s when things got interesting.
     
    The Tigers went into a modified shift, with their shortstop barely to the left of second base and their third baseman, Nick Castellanos, playing deep and at least 25 feet away from third base. As Justin Verlander went into his stretch, Rosario took a walking lead off second and then broke for third.
     
    Verlander stepped back off the rubber and threw to third, but by the time Castellanos got to the bag and caught the throw, Rosario was there with relative ease.
     
    The Tigers continued their shift against Mauer and, on the next pitch, Rosario took an extended lead down the third base line, prompting Verlander to step back again and, since there was literally no infielder remotely close to third base, all he could do was take a few running steps at Rosario to force him back to the bag.
     
    Since Mauer ultimately struck out, it really didn’t matter where the Tigers placed their infielders, nor did it matter whether Rosario was on second or third base. And, I suppose, since the Twins only ultimately scored three runs in the game, while giving up six, I guess you could argue it wouldn’t have mattered if Rosario had managed to score.
     
    But all of it did matter. Boy did it matter.
     
    Because when the Twins took the field, Darin Mastroianni took Rosario’s spot in the outfield.
     
    You see, whether you call it conventional wisdom or one of baseball’s unwritten rules, Rosario was not supposed to steal third base with his team down four runs in the seventh inning and the team’s best hitter at the plate. He would, the argument goes, have scored on a Mauer single just as easily from second base as he would from third and stealing third base in that situation represented a risk greater than the potential reward.
     
    In his post-game comments to the media, manager Paul Molitor made it clear he wasn’t happy with Rosario.
     
    According to a Tweet from Brian Murphy of the Pioneer-Press, Molitor remarked, "The risk 100 fold is greater than reward. Being safe doesn’t make it right. I wanted to get Eddie out of the game at that point."
     
    Now, let me just say that I’ve been slow to be overly critical of Paul Molitor. I’ve had the pleasure of speaking to the man personally and came away knowing with 100% certainty that he has “100 fold” more knowledge of baseball than I do.
     
    With that said, I believe he was wrong in this situation. I realize that in Molitor’s mind (and that of many, many baseball traditionalists), stealing third base in that situation was not something a runner should do.
     
    And maybe it wasn’t. But, while I’m open to that possibility, I don’t think it was as cut-and-dried as others (including Molitor, obviously) do.
     
    First, forget the four run deficit. If we know anything, it’s that every run matters. If you have a chance to improve your chances of scoring a run, you should do it. It’s not like the Tigers haven’t coughed up a four run lead lately. They couldn’t protect a lead of twice that many runs just two nights earlier.
     
    The steal (and subsequent excessive lead off third base) might have aggravated Verlander. But, I hope we can all agree that, even if it did, that doesn’t make what Rosario did wrong, in the least. If anything, aggravating the pitcher in that situation is what a runner SHOULD try to do.
     
    In fact, if I were to criticize Rosario for anything in this sequence, it might be for not continuing to take such a huge lead down the third base line that Verlander and the Tigers couldn’t possibly ignore him. Hell, let him try to steal home there if they insist on playing their nearest infielder 30 feet away from the bag. But, in all likelihood, his third base coach was reigning him in at that point.
     
    If Rosario had been MORE aggressive, rather than being wrangled in, maybe the Tigers would have been forced to abandon (or at least significantly modify) their shift against Mauer, and thus shifting the odds more in favor of him coming through with a hit to drive Rosario in.
     
    But Mauer struck out and Rosario was benched for his efforts.
     
    Now, maybe Molitor’s patience with Rosario had simply run out. After all, his poor throw in the first inning, his flailing at pitches and his allowing a ball to drop in the outfield were each arguably, by themselves, grounds for being yanked by his manager.
     
    Rosario has been bad most of the year and chances are he’d already be back in Rochester if Byron Buxton had played well enough to keep a big league roster spot. But Molitor and the Twins need a couple of outfielders on the roster than can cover some ground if they’re going to let Oswaldo Arcia and Miguel Sano spend a lot of time out there. So he’s still around (for now).
     
    I’m undoubtedly more of an “old-school” baseball fan than most Twins fans are, especially those fans who are active on social media. And I’m not a big Rosario fan. I’d have probably shipped him out, via trade, demotion or release, before now, even though part of me would love to see what the Twins could do with a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler outfield at some point.
     
    He frustrates me and I do believe his play is one major reason the Twins have underperformed (but just one of many reasons).
     
    But I loved what he did on the bases in the seventh inning and I think, by yanking him, Molitor sent a dangerous precedent with this team.
     
    The Twins have won just 10 games. They aren’t going to improve by just trying to play baseball in traditional methods better than they have been. They need to shake things up and start aggressively doing things in ways that their opponents aren’t expecting – and that’s what Rosario was doing.
     
    If your opponents don’t like that you’re stealing third base when they shift, that’s a good reason TO do it. Take chances. Manufacture runs. Be frigging aggressive in everything you do.
     
    That might make some people uncomfortable and one of those people very possibly is a baseball traditionalist like Molitor.
     
    Say what you will about Rosario and we could say plenty. Say he swings at too many bad pitches. Say he tries to throw lead runners out when he should keep force plays in effect. Say he takes unwise chances on the basepaths.
     
    But at least Rosario is trying to DO something different and when you've lost three quarters of your first 40-ish games of the season, maybe "different" is good.
     
    If the Twins are going to begin the transition to a roster of new young players, and take some lumps in the process, how about they at least instill a culture of aggressiveness while doing it. It may not prevent the Twins from losing 90 games (or even 100 games) this season, but it would at least be more fun to watch, wouldn’t it?
  2. Steven Buhr
    There's nothing like having a really bad product at the Major League level to focus fans' attention on prospects in an organization's minor league system and that's exactly what has happened in Twinsville over the past several years.
     
    Many Twins fans that have turned their primary attention to the club's prospects have, for the past couple of years, been somewhat underwhelmed by the stat lines of pitcher Kohl Stewart and outfielder Travis Harrison, to the point where I mentioned in my offseason "top prospects" article that both players were approaching career crossroads.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
     
    The criticisms of Stewart were almost entirely centered on his low strikeout rates and Harrison wasn't living up to some peoples' expectations offensively, especially with regard to power numbers.
     
    I wrapped up my article in February with the following:
     

    Both of these young players undoubtedly know they’ve reached the point where they need to show everyone just why the Twins scouts liked them enough to use very high draft picks on them as they were coming out of high school. They’re both hard workers. 

    Don’t be surprised if, a year from now, we are all talking about how they both had breakout seasons and wondering how the Twins are going to find big league spots for them in the near future. 
    Well, we aren't anywhere close to a year down the road, as the minor league season is just under 25% complete, but it's worth checking in on the early returns for both players, each of which is, for the first time in their respective careers, repeating a level of minor league ball; Stewart at advanced-A Fort Myers and Harrison at AA Chattanooga.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Harrison2016a1000-600x400.jpg
    Travis Harrison (Photo: Steve Buhr)

    Harrison still hasn't shown pronounced home run power, though he does have two home runs for the Lookouts. That would project to eight for the season, which would be his highest total since smacking 15 for Class A Cedar Rapids in 2013, but still might be considered lower than some would have expected. Still, he is just 23 years old, so there's plenty of time to see more power develop and home runs are just about the only thing he's not hitting this season.
     
    Harrison is hitting .297 in 29 games for Chattanooga, which is 57 points higher than his .240 average in 2015 and he's slugging almost 50 points higher, as well. He's also in the midst of an impressive stretch of offensive production, hitting .405 in his last ten games, during which he's had six multi-hit games. He's still striking out more than you'd like to see, but on balance, you'd have to be encouraged by his 2016 season to-date.
     
    In 2015, Stewart threw by far more innings (129.1) than he had ever thrown since he passed on a scholarship to play quarterback for Texas A&M to sign with the Twins as their 2014 first round draft choice, but he continued to strike out barely one batter for every couple of innings he toed the mound.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Stewart16a-600x400.jpg
    Kohl Stewart (Photo: Steve Buhr)

    He's on pace to throw about 140 innings in 2016 (and could be more if he's promoted to AA, where the Twins are less inclined to utilize a 6-man starting rotation than they are at the Class A levels). More importantly (to many, anyway) Stewart is also on pace to strike out over 130 batters, which would nearly double his K total from a season ago.
     
    Stewart has managed to pick up his strikeout rate without suffering in other areas. He's carrying a 2.08 ERA through his first six starts and has given up just one home run on the year.
     
    As with Harrison, we tend to forget just how young Stewart is because we've been watching and talking about him for years, but he'll still be just 21 years old when the minor league seasons wrap up in September. Even if he doesn't maintain his early strikeout rate (which is certainly possible, especially if he's eventually promoted to AA this summer), he has demonstrated that he's capable of sitting batters down. For a 21-year-old, that's enough to satisfy me for now.
     
    It's certainly premature to project certain big league stardom for either Harrison or Stewart, but I predicted we would see breakout seasons from both in 2016 and I certainly like the way they've started out.
  3. Steven Buhr
    So this season has certainly de-escalated quickly, hasn’t it Twins fans?
     
    Ask any group of Twins fans what went wrong and you’ll get a wide variety of responses. Of course, there’s no shortage of I-told-you-so’s going around out there, either. Haters gonna hate and nothing makes haters happier than when things go badly and they can loudly proclaim how smart they were to hate in the first place.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Facepalm-600x351.png
     
    The thing is, I don’t think anyone is (or at least they shouldn’t be) shocked by what’s happening with the Twins. Was an 8-20 start “expected”? No, not by most of us. But I’m more disappointed than surprised and I would imagine that I’m not alone in feeling that way
     
    ​(This article was originanally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    General Manager Terry Ryan clearly made the decision during the offseason that 2016 was going to be the year he would push the first wave of young potential stars into the big league fray. He wasn't interested in adding any free agent that might block a significant young talent. His only big move was the addition of Korean slugger Byung Ho Park and that particular move is looking very good.
     
    To appreciate why Ryan was relatively passive during the offseason, you have to start with the understanding that, all along, 2016 was going to be another season in the longer rebuilding process. I think most of us recognized that.
    It would be the first full season of big league ball for Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Tyler Duffey.
     
    It would, hopefully, be a near-full season of Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Sano16d-600x400.jpg
    Miguel Sano

    We would also likely see significant Major League playing time for several more building blocks for what, at some point, could be the next great Twins team. That group might include Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Alex Meyer and perhaps several other highly touted bullpen arms.
     
    That’s a lot of youth and it’s probably unrealistic to expect all of those guys to perform well enough to propel the club into serious contention for a postseason spot.
     
    Still, the Twins came real close to nabbing a wild card spot last year, so was it really unrealistic to expect them to improve the following season? Maybe, maybe not.
     
    It’s not unrealistic to believe it’s POSSIBLE to improve on their prior season’s results, but you could argue that it was unrealistic to EXPECT so many young players to step up in one season, without any of them finding themselves overmatched, at least temporarily, by Major League competition.
     
    Many of the challenges we foresaw occurring this season have become reality.
     
    The Twins strike out a lot. Only the Astros and Blue Jays hitters have K’d more than the Twins so far in 2016. We knew this would happen and there was no shortage of warnings uttered before the season that it could be disastrous.
     
    Miguel Sano has been a bad outfielder. We knew he wouldn’t win any gold gloves out there, but I’m not sure he’s been any worse than anyone would have expected. He’s actually shown some of his athleticism at times, even while also clearly not being confident that he can field the position well.
     
    The hope was that Byron Buxton’s presence in center field would somewhat minimize the damage done while Sano learns right field on the fly. Then Buxton failed to get on track with the bat and had to be sat down and, eventually, demoted.
     
    That problem was exacerbated by Eddie Rosario’s significant regression at the plate. While Oswaldo Arcia’s bat has perhaps made up for Rosario’s poor start, that also left the Twins with the prospect of having Arcia and Sano constitute two-thirds of the defensive outfield. That’s not optimal, by any means.
     
    Yet, to me, if the worst problems this team had were on the offensive side, I wouldn’t be too worried.
     
    They aren’t ripping through opposing pitchers, but there’s enough good stuff going on (Joe Mauer, Byung Ho Park, Sano, Arcia and surprising production from Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana) that there would be time to get guys like Dozier, Buxton and Rosario on track (or replaced) and still have a very nice season.
    Alas, the bats aren’t the worst problems.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Gibson2016a-600x400.jpg
    Kyle Gibson

    The worst problems are exactly where they have been for years – on the pitchers’ mound.
     
    We were uneasy about the bullpen going in. Maybe – MAYBE – Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen and Trevor May would hold down the back end of the bullpen, but starting the season with essentially the same mediocre (or worse) middle and long relief from a year ago was scary.
     
    Then Perkins went on the Disabled List and Jepsen has been ineffective. Newcomer Fernando Abad and Michael Tonkin have looked good, but they’ve seemed to largely be used in situations where the Twins have already fallen behind, virtually wasting their effectiveness.
     
    Ryan Pressly and Casey Fien have been awful and Ryan O’Rourke, since being promoted, hasn’t fared any better.
     
    I’ve read comments that the starting pitching has been better than some expected. I don’t understand that at all.
     
    Yes, we’re all very pleasantly surprised that Ricky Nolasco has made the decision to hand him the fifth rotation spot look extremely wise and Ervin Santana hasn’t been awful most of the time, but outside of that, I just don’t see why anyone thinks the starting pitching has been anything but a train wreck.
     
    Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson have been awful and Tommy Milone has been bad enough that he was the guy who eventually lost his rotation spot.
     
    There’s some potential for improvement, perhaps. Jose Berrios has shown the filthy stuff he has in his two starts and, if he’s given time to settle into a routine, he could quickly become an effective big league starting pitcher. Tyler Duffey will never be confused with Berrios in terms of his stuff or velocity, but Duffey still looks better than at least 60% of the guys who opened the season in the Twins’ rotation.
     
    The conclusion I’ve drawn from this is that “fixing” the Twins right now isn’t that complicated – or at least it doesn’t have to be.
     
    I wouldn’t touch the offense right now. Let things play out a while and do what you have to do to get guys like Buxton, Kepler and Polanco raking in Rochester so they’re ready to come back up in a month or two and stick.
     
    If you insist on making some kind of change, fine. Bring up catcher Juan Centeno from Rochester. At this point, I wouldn’t even care whether it was John Ryan Murphy or Kurt Suzuki that you replaced. Neither of them should figure in the long term plans for the Twins, anyway, and it might be time to promote either Stuart Turner or Mitch Garver from Chattanooga up to Rochester so they can both get regular innings behind the plate.
     
    While you don’t want to read too much into one month of work, I don’t think there’s much risk in replacing Pressly, Fien and O’Rourke in the bullpen. I’d see what J.T. Chargois and Buddy Boshers have to offer.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Chargois16a-429x600.jpg
    J.T. Chargois

    My rotation, for now, would be Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, Berrios and Duffey. The stint on the DL that Gibson is doing gives the Twins some time to get good looks at Berrios and Duffey. I like continuing to see Meyer start at Rochester, until he proves once and for all that he’s best suited for bullpen work.
     
    If Hughes doesn’t get it together, the Twins will need to figure out what “injury” he has and let him work through that while on the DL for a while, too.
     
    The limited roster changes I’ve described would be a good start, but it shouldn’t be the end of the transition.
     
    If the club is still wallowing toward the bottom of the standings a month from now (which seems almost certain at this point), it will be time to start dealing away those players who have some market value and likely aren’t part of the next generation of competitive Twins teams.
     
    There’s no longer a reason to try to blend young players into a veteran clubhouse. Frankly, many of the young players coming up have won at Elizabethton, Cedar Rapids, Ft. Myers and Chattanooga over the past four years and they’re probably more equipped to create a “winning clubhouse atmosphere” at Target Field than the Twins’ veterans are.
     
    I am not going to hold out much hope that the Twins will recover from their disastrous start to fight their way back into contention for even a wild card spot, but that doesn’t mean the season is over or that there shouldn’t/couldn’t be something well worth watching over the rest of the season.
     
    It may not always be pretty and there will certainly be plenty for the haters to hate on, but it doesn’t have to be boring or meaningless – unless the front office allows it to become so.
  4. Steven Buhr
    It was a minor story this week. Minnesota Twins (and former Cedar Rapids Kernels) pitcher Tyler Duffey was one of a handful of Major League ballplayers that have come to agreements with a firm by the name of Fantex to “sell” a share of their future earnings in return for an immediate sum of money.
     
    You can read the AP story here and, for a description of how the investments in the players actually works, you can click this link to a year-old Fortune article.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/baseballMoney.jpg
     
    The concept of exchanging an immediate known sum of money for some future undetermined, yet theoretically predictable, amounts is hardly new. Commercials for companies willing to “buy” your annuity payments are not infrequent. You can even find organizations willing to buy your life insurance policies and essentially gamble that you’ll die soon enough that they’ll make more money on the policy than they pay you for it.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    Fantex also is making similar investments in a few professional golfers. That’s really nothing new, either. A lot of aspiring golf professionals get their early funding to travel around the country competing in tournaments from others who are willing to buy a share of their future winnings.
     
    But this is a new thing for baseball. You don't find anyone doing any direct investment in ballplayers (outside of Latin America, anyway).
     
    Before we go further with this, let's be clear about one thing. This kind of financial instrument is likely one of the more speculative (read: risky) you're likely to find. Seldom would the cliché "buyer beware" be more applicable than to investing with Fantex on a venture like this. That said, it's interesting to look at how such an initiative, should it become commonplace, could effect the financial underpinnings of the game.
     
    Duffey and the other players involved have agreed to relinquish a percentage (generally about 10%) of their future on-field and off-field income to Fantex in return for a substantial immediate payment. (Duffey’s $2.23 million is the lowest among the ballplayers).
     
    Duffey was a fifth round draft pick by the Twins in 2012 and reportedly received a signing bonus of about $267,000. Minor league salaries are notoriously low. For example, Duffey would have been getting something in the neighborhood of $1100 per month during his days with the Kernels in 2013.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Duffey2015b-1414937-428x600.jpg
    Tyler Duffey

    While on the Twins’ Major League roster, he’s making $525,000 this season, which is slightly above the big league minimum salary. He won’t be eligible for salary arbitration for at least another three years, which means that, in the interim, the Twins are unlikely to offer him contracts much higher than what he’s currently making.
     
    With the way MLB teams currently operate, if Duffey were to perform very well for the Twins in the next year or two, it is likely that their front office would offer him a multi-year contract that would cover at least much of his arbitration-eligible years and possibly extend into his free-agency era. This gives the player some insurance against injury and/or poor performance and, in turn, the team controls their salary costs for an extended period.
     
    More often than not, these agreements are viewed as “team friendly” and not only save the club money, in the long run, but improve the players' value on the trade market.
     
    A lot of players in Duffey’s situation readily accept those deals (unless their agent is Scot Boras, who routinely recommends that his clients bet on themselves and go through the arbitration and free-agency process as soon as possible).
     
    It’s easy to understand why a player would take the deal. Sure, you may cost yourself some money down the road, but you get security and you are still probably assured of seeing more money than anyone in your family has ever seen. And, after all, what other choice do you have if you do value some level of financial security?
     
    None. Until now.
     
    Even after his agent and the government get their share, Duffey is likely to pocket $1 million from his deal with Fantex, if it goes through (If Fantex can't raise the $2.23 million to pay Duffey from investors, the deal is cancelled). That’s likely going to give his agent a much better negotiating posture if and when the Twins decide they want to talk about an extension. Duffey would no longer be solely reliant on the Twins for financial security.
     
    If this concept takes hold and becomes wide-spread, the whole process by which teams deal with their middle-to-lower tier of players could be affected. Currently, teams balance their payrolls between those they have to overpay (relative to their actual performance) by millions of dollars either on the free agent market or to preclude them from leaving to test free agency and those who they can underpay because they're still making close to the league minimum or they’re still playing under extensions they signed early in their careers.
     
    If a concept such as Fantex gives players another option for attaining some level of financial security without having to agree to give up (or at least postpone) their big future paydays, that could have a challenging effect on clubs’ payroll management.
     
    Officially, MLB has stated that these arrangements do not violate any MLB rules and the MLB Players Association has an agreement with Fantex that allows them to approach players. It will be interesting, however, to see if the subject finds its way onto the negotiating table this year as the two sides try to hammer out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
     
    In the meantime, if you’re a believer in the future of Tyler Duffey as a big league pitcher, you may have a new – more substantive – way to express that confidence.
     
    It’s too bad we couldn’t come up with a way to spread this concept into the minor leagues. I doubt we’d have to look too far to find some guys in Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers who would be happy to offer a couple percent of their future earnings in return for enough money to afford a pizza once in a while.
  5. Steven Buhr
    Twenty games into their 2016 season, the Cedar Rapids Kernels find themselves right in the thick of the chase for the Midwest League’s Western Division first-half title race with an 11-9 record. They sit just one-half game behind Division co-leaders Kane County and Clinton.
     
    The Kernels are a combined 4-7 against the front-running Cougars and Lumberkings.
     
    If you look strictly at the club’s offensive numbers, you’d be hard pressed to figure out how the Kernels have managed to keep aloft in the standings. They’re batting just .229 as a team, which is better than just four other MWL clubs.
     
    What’s been the secret? It’s no secret, really. It’s been all about the pitching, so far.
     
    “Pitching and defense is what you preach and try to be the most consistent at,” explained Kernels manager Jake Mauer this week, adding, “hitting tends to be more volatile.”
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Mauer2015a-600x400.jpg
    Jake Mauer

    Mauer, who will notch his 250th win as Kernels manager with the next Cedar Rapids victory, doesn't have to reach any further for an example of what he's referring to than the team’s recent weekend series in Clinton.
     
    After being rained out on Thursday night, the Kernels dropped a 3-1 game on Friday, mustering just five hits.
     
    On Saturday, the two clubs had a pair of seven-inning games scheduled to make up for the rainout, but game one ran 18 innings, with the Kernels falling 2-1. They were then shutout 3-0 in game two.
     
    On Sunday, the bats woke up and the Kernels put a 9-0 thumping on the Lumberkings to salvage their lone win in the series, despite outscoring Clinton 11-10 across the four games (and 43 innings).
    Consistent pitching and defense, volatile hitting.
     
    “We haven’t clicked very well offensively,” Mauer admitted. “We had the big outburst opening night (12 runs on 15 hits against Quad Cities) and we scored nine the last day in Clinton, but really in between that, we really haven’t done too much.”
     
    Ah, but the pitching, that’s a different story.
     
    The Kernels opened the season with 15 players on their roster who saw time in Cedar Rapids last season and some of those guys are playing key roles on the mound.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Clay16b-600x400.jpg
    Sam Clay

    Returning pitchers Randy LeBlanc and Sam Clay have led the rotation. LeBlanc has a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of 0.83 through his four starts, while Clay’s put up a 0.53 ERA in his three starts. He has struck out 19 batters in 17 innings pitched.
     
    Cody Stashak, who was promoted to Cedar Rapids a couple weeks ago, has made two starts, winning both games and notching a 1.13 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
     
    The bullpen has been stellar, as well.
     
    John Curtiss and CK Irby have each made six appearances this season and neither has allowed an earned run. Irby has struck out 10 in 9 2/3 innings of work, while Curtiss has averaged more than two strikeouts in every inning he’s worked, amassing 17 Ks in 8 innings. Nick Anderson has also struck out more than one hitter per inning out of the pen.
     
    “LaBlanc’s a guy returning and Curtiss is a guy returning, they’ve both been outstanding,” Mauer observed. “We’ve gotten big innings from Irby. Anderson has done fine. Clay has been really good. He looks like a different animal than he was last year.”
     
    Like LeBlanc, Curtiss, Anderson and Irby, Clay put in time with the Kernels in 2016. He posted a 0-3 record and allowed 1.86 runners to reach base for each inning he pitched for Cedar Rapids, resulting in a trip back to the Twins’ rookie-level club in Elizabethton.
     
    “It’s a testament to what (Elizabethton pitching coach) Luis Ramirez did down there at Etown and that staff,” Mauer said, referring to Clay’s significant improvement. “It was the same with Felix Jorge a year ago. “For whatever reason they didn’t do so well here, they went down there and got right, came back and now they’re on their way.”
     
    Curtiss spent time in the Kernels’ rotation last season, but suffered some shoulder issues. He was a reliever at the University of Texas and his return to the bullpen now appears to be permanent and Mauer thinks that could help the righthander move quickly up the organizational ladder.
     
    “I think that’s the right call, keep him in the bullpen,” Mauer said. “He’s got a chance to be a pretty fast mover, I think. It can happen pretty fast for those college relief guys.
     
    “(Irby) is another one that could move quick. Anderson, same situation. There’s three guys right there that, if they’re rested and we can set the game up the way we want, we like our chances with the lead going with those three guys.”
     
    Of course, that involves a couple of pretty big “ifs.” It assumes you can generate enough offense to get an early lead and also that those arms will stay in Kernels uniforms for at least a while longer.
     
    The parent Minnesota Twins have had some pitching issues already during the first month of their season, both in terms of injuries and ineffectiveness. That could lead to some early adjustments to pitching assignments, not only at the big league level, but also all the way through the system.
     
    “We’re three weeks in, I’m sure there’s going to be some movement here, probably sooner than later,” Mauer said.
     
    He can’t do anything about it if Twins Farm Director Brad Steil decides his pitchers should be promoted, so the manager’s focus is on getting wins any way he can.
     
    “Pitching has been really our key and now we’re starting to play better infield defense, getting a little more settled in the infield. Hopefully we don’t have any more of those 18 inning games.
     
    “We played 18 innings (in game 1 Saturday), then played seven more (in game 2), and only scored one run. That’s pretty frustrating, especially with all the opportunities we had, including runners at third with nobody out and one out. Guys let the moment get too big and try to do too much instead of just doing what they can. We’ve been a little better at that starting Sunday.”
     
    Outfielder LaMonte Wade has been the most consistent offensive contributor, hitting .344 with six doubles, two triples and a home run. Unfortunately, Wade has been on the shelf for a few games while nursing a sore hamstring.
     
    Chris Paul was batting .346 when he was promoted to the Fort Myers Miracle and infielder Luis Arraez has come on to hit .395 and put up an OPS of 1.083 in 11 games, doing most of his damage after Paul’s departure (he’s hit .483 in his last eight games).
     
    “Arraez has been a shot in the arm for us,” his manager said. “He played in the big leagues down there in Venezuela in their winter league, so he’s not intimidated by anything that’s going on here, that’s for sure. He’s a hitter, really, He knows where the barrel is, works counts, not a strikeout guy, just puts together good at-bats.”
     
    On the other end of the spectrum, the Kernels have seven players who currently are batting below the .200 mark.
     
    “Really, it’s been LaMonte and Chris Paul, before he left, and Arraez that have been our only offense,” Mauer confirmed. “(Zander) Wiel looks like he’s starting to come around a bit, which is good. Get him going and then (Jermaine) Palacios had a better week last week, he’s hitting the ball better. We need to get some of these guys to get going here so we don’t have to rely on the pitchers.”
     
    In the meantime, Mauer looks for things he can do to put his team in the best position to win a game, even when the crucial hits aren’t coming.
     
    “We’re struggling a little bit when we’re in scoring position and we’ve got to get better at it,” he explained. “That’s why we played the infield in (Tuesday) in the fourth inning with nobody out. Runs are hard to come by for us. Same thing with Arraez trying to score (from third base) on a 180-foot fly ball. Kid made a good throw - we were kind of hoping that he would throw it away or something - try to force the issue a little bit. We’ve got to do things like that to try to create something. We don’t get many opportunities.”
     
    Wade is expected to return to the Kernels lineup within the next day or two and the manager is hoping his return, along with some improvement among the others in his lineup, will help put a few more runs on the board.
     
    If not, the manager is mindful that changes can be made.
     
    “We left a couple college guys that are down there (in Extended Spring Training) that could probably help us. Sometimes you just need a break or a movement situation.”
  6. Steven Buhr
    As the Cedar Rapids Kernels begin a stretch of seven consecutive "commuter" games (those where they bus to the away game and back home again after the game each day/night) this week, they are off to a 7-4 start to their Midwest League Season, good enough for second place in the MWL's West Division, a half-game behind Kane County.
     
    (This article was originally posted at knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    Early on, the Kernels' offense was riding on the shoulders of LaMonte Wade and Chris Paul. Paul was promoted to Ft. Myers, but Wade has continued to rake, hitting an even .400 on the season and putting up a 1.119 OPS. The 22-year-old former Maryland Terrapin has hit safely in each of Cedar Rapids' 11 games this season.
     
    With Paul no longer around, the club needed others to step up their games and Luis Arraez has done exactly that.
     
    Arraez had back-to-back games this week in which he led off the bottom half of the first inning with a home run. That's remarkable enough, but then consider that they were the first two round-trippers of the infielder's career. He has raised his batting average to .346 and his OPS to 1.008.
     
    As the starting pitchers complete their second time through the rotation, Sam Clay has led the crew with a perfect 0.00 ERA, while striking out 13 batters in 11 innings of work. Relievers C.K Irby and John Curtiss have equaled that perfect 0.00 ERA out of the bullpen. Curtiss had K'd 8 in 4 innings on the mound and Irby has set down 7 batters in 6 2/3 innings.
     
    The first home series of the season last week was more than a little chilly, though that did make for a couple of interesting pictures. With a couple of sunny day games this past weekend, there were more opportunities for decent photo shooting. I wish I had at least one of every player, but I didn't quite manage that. I'll get there eventually.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Arraez16a-600x400.jpg
    Luis Arraez squeezes a pop fly

    With the kind of week Arraez had, he deserves a couple of pictures, don't you think? Let's add one of the infielder at the plate.
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    Luis Arraez

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    Christian Cavaness

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    Sam Clay

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    John Curtiss

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Cutura16c-600x400.jpg
    Andro Cutura

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Fernandez16a-600x400.jpg
    JJ Fernandez

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    Sam GIbbons

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    Manuel Guzman

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    Bryant Hayman

    And, in case you're now wondering whether Bryant actually made contact with that pitch, yes, yes he did.
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    Bryant Hayman

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    Logan Lombana

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Miller16f-600x400.jpg
    Sean Miller

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    Max Murphy

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Murray16h-400x600.jpg
    AJ Murray

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    Miles Nordgren

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    Jermaine Palacios

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    Chris Paul (just because he's not currently with the Kernels doesn't mean we shouldn't see his picture!)

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    Dereck Rodriguez

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    Rafael Valera - I'm not sure this is the fielding position they teach, but then the coaches don't typically assume you'll be trying to keep your throwing hand warm in 38 degree temps, either.

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    LaMonte Wade

    If anyone has earned getting two pictures in this post, it's LaMonte Wade.
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    LaMonte Wade

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    Zander Wiel models the cold weather hoodie most players made use of the first week.

    That's what I've got uploaded so far. I thought I had a few more, but can't put my fingers on them at the moment, anyway. I'll load up some more next homestand.
  7. Steven Buhr
    The Cedar Rapids Kernels organized two public events to give fans and media opportunities to meet the 2016 crop of ballplayers and coaching staff this week.
     
    The team arrived on Monday and were greeted at Veterans Stadium by fans and staff as their bus from the airport pulled into the players' parking lot.
     
    On Tuesday, the annual Meet the Kernels Night gave media an opportunity to talk to manager Jake Mauer and his coaches, as well as a trio of ballplayers, while other players mingled with fans on the concourse to have a bite to eat and try to stay warm.
     
    I posted articles over at Knuckleballsblog.com covering both events and decided I would combine them into one blog post here at TwinsDaily. Enjoy.
     
    Cedar Rapids Welcomes the 2016 Kernels
     
    A modest, but devoted, crowd of fans, staff and host parents greeted manager Jake Mauer, his field staff and 24 players to Veterans Memorial Stadium with applause and a handful of signs as they stepped off their bus from the Cedar Rapids airport early Monday evening.
     
    It was upwards of 70 degrees in Florida when the team departed their Fort Myers spring training camp earlier in the day and many of the players were still sporting the short sleeve sport shirts that were more appropriate on departure than they were upon arrival at their new home, where temperatures hovered a degree or two on one side or the other of 40 degrees.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/ShucksTank-768x548.jpg
    Mr Shucks spends some time with young Kernels fans while they wait for the team’s bus to arrive. (photo: SD Buhr)
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    Manager Jake Mauer steps off the bus to the applause of local fans. (Photo: SD Buhr)
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    Young Kernels fans greeting the arriving 2016 Kernels (Photo: SD Buhr)
    After arriving and settling into his office, Mauer confirmed that pitcher Michael Cederoth, originally listed as a member of the initial Kernels roster, did not make the trip to Cedar Rapids with the team. The manager indicated that Cederoth has an issue with his back and that no final decision has yet been communicated concerning who will take his spot on the active roster.
     
    The Quad Cities River Bandits will visit Cedar Rapids on Thursday to open the 2016 season. Game time is 6:35.
     
    "Meet the Kernels" Night is a Cold One
     
    “Meet the Kernels” Night in Cedar Rapids could just as well be re-named “Kernels Meet the Cold” Night. as the freshly arrived group of players once again were greeted by 40 degree temperatures Tuesday night, in addition to meeting media members and fans during the annual event.
     
    Manager Jake Mauer and his new coaching staff, pitching coach J.P. Martinez and hitting coach Brian Dinkelman, took questions from local media for several minutes before being replaced at the interview table by three of the 16 Kernels that spent time in Cedar Rapids uniforms a year ago, infielder Chris Paul along with pitchers Sam Gibbons and Randy LeBlanc
     
    Many of the questions for the field staff and the trio of players focused on the cold weather and the higher-than-normal number of players returning to Cedar Rapids to start the 2016 season.
     
    While the interviews were going on and for a time afterward, players and fans mingled on the concourse and tried to stay warm.
     
    The introduction of the team and short workout, originally scheduled for 7:00, were mercifully moved up to 6:15.
    The forecast for Thursday’s Opening Day in Cedar Rapids is for warmer temperatures – perhaps all the way up to the upper 40s by game time – and a 45% chance of afternoon rain.
     
    Photos from Tuesday’s event:
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    Kernels broadcaster Morgan Hawk introduces the 2016 Kernels to fans (Photo: SD Buhr)
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    JP Martinez, Jake Mauer and Brian Dinkelman take questions form the local Cedar Rapids media (Photo: SD Buhr)
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    Returning Kernels Sam Gibbons, Randy LeBlanc and Chris Paul share a moment of levity during their group interview with local media (Photo: SD Buhr)
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    Kernels grabbing some grub and mingling with fans on the concourse (Photo: SD Buhr)
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/KernelsMeet2-768x512.jpg
    Players and fans alike were trying to stay warm as they got to know one another. (Photo: SD Buhr)
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    On the field before their workout, an unusual combination of shorts and hooded parkas (Photo: SD Buhr)
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/FlipInParkas-768x512.jpg
    Pitchers gathering for a little game of Flip is not unusual – playing it in parkas is less common (Photo: SD Buhr)
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    Fans who stuck around to the end watched the Kernels take a round of infield (Photo: SD Buhr)
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/KernelsBP-768x407.jpg
    I’ll just say that I’ve taken batting practice in cold weather. It is never fun. (Photo: SD Buhr)
  8. Steven Buhr
    What is baseball going to do about teams tanking?
     
    That question, framed in one manner or another, is being posed incessantly by baseball media’s talking heads as Major League Baseball prepares to kick off the 2016 season.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/tanking2-600x355.jpg
     
    There’s no question that teams like the Washington Nationals, Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs have emerged from prolonged periods of ineptitude to become not only competitive, but, in the case of the Cubs, the odds-on preseason favorite to win the 2016 World Series.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    The focus of most discussions seems to be on trying to differentiate between “tanking” – that is, intentionally designing your Major League roster in such a way that it will be all but impossible to lose fewer than 90 games (and likely considerably more) – and “rebuilding,” which is simply attempting to do whatever is deemed necessary, within the rules of the game, to improve talent levels to the point where your team can realistically compete for a championship.
     
    It is, seemingly, a distinction without a difference. Yet, "rebuilding" is almost always viewed as simply a necessary process teams having a bad season or two must undergo, while "tanking" is portrayed as a serious threat to the competitive balance of Major League Baseball.
     
    Tanking, I suppose, is arguably just one method at a general manager’s disposal to accomplish a rebuild. If so, it is quite possibly the most effective method available to teams that are considered middle or small market organizations, without the necessary financial resources to fill every critical roster gap with a top-tier free agent.
     
    While the Astros, Nationals and Cubs have been raised as examples of teams that have tanked their way back into competitiveness, the Oakland Athletics are often cited as an organization that takes a more noble tact. As ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote recently, “Oakland has never taken (the tanking) route since general manager Billy Beane took over the franchise. The Athletics just don't quit.”
     
    Here's something else that the Oakland Athletics have never done under Beane’s leadership over the past two decades: win a World Series.
     
    That’s a trait that the A’s share with Theo Epstein’s Cubs, Jeff Luhnow’s Astros and Mike Rizzo’s Nationals, though those GMs took over their respective teams far more recently than Beane took over the helm in Oakland.
    It’s also an aspect that each of those teams share with the Minnesota Twins.
     
    If it seems like forever for Twins fans since their team held up a championship trophy at the end of the 1991 season, there’s some small solace to be taken from the fact that Minnesota's 1991’s success is more recent than anything the other four organizations have experienced.
     
    The Athletics last won it all in the 1989 “Earthquake Series,” and the Cubs last took home the hardware in 1908. Astros fans have never celebrated a World Series title in the club’s fifty-plus years of existence, nor have Nationals fans (even those that can claim allegiance going back to the club’s days as the Montreal Expos).
     
    There seems to be no doubt that the Nationals, Cubs and Astros tanked their way back in to baseball relevance. They fielded teams that were designed to lose so many games that they would consistently benefit from high draft picks and inflated international spending allowances.
     
    Oakland, however, was really never bad enough to fall below middle-of-the-pack status for more than a year at a time. Beane couldn’t retain his big-money stars, so he often traded them for something of current MLB-level value before they would be lost to free agency. His now-famous “moneyball” strategies sought to unearth players with enough hidden value to allow his team to at least be competitive almost every season.
     
    Who did it right? Baseball purists may claim that tanking is ethically wrong and others will claim Beane's approach does little but perpetuate mediocrity.
     
    However, based on what arguably is the most important criteria, World Series Championships won, it would be difficult to declare one strategy more successful than the other. Then again, the Nationals, Cubs and Astros are all projected to fare much better than the Athletics in 2016, so maybe this will be the year that tanking's advantage becomes apparent.
     
    But what about the Twins? What exactly was their strategy?
     
    Regardless of what they were thinking at any particular point in time, there’s no question that the Twins have benefited from the high draft positioning that resulted from four consecutive seasons of winning 70 or fewer games (a benefit that could be negated considerably in the future if the anti-tanking crowd gets some of the rule changes they propose).
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Buxton2015-600x400.jpg
    Byron Buxton
    Miguel Sano was signed out of the Dominican Republic toward the end of the team’s run of qualifying for six postseasons within nine years, but both their top hitting prospect (Byron Buxton) and top pitching prospect (Jose Berrios) were available to be selected by the Twins because their 99 losses in 2011 allowed them to pick in the second position in the 2012 amateur draft. Buxton was chosen with the second overall pick and Berrios with the first pick of the supplemental first round.
     
    Over the following several years, the Twins added a number of highly touted young players due to consistently picking at the top end of the draft. Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay, the team's first round picks over the following three years, all sit comfortably among the top rated prospects in the Twins organization and each has been ranked among the top 100 prospects in the game at one time or another.
     
    Of course, the Twins also held picks at the top of each successive round of those drafts, enabling them to select from among the cream of the non-elite crop of young players, as well. The fact that the Twins continue to have one of the top rated minor league organizations is due, in no small part, to their draft position over the past four drafts.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Berrios2016-400x600.jpg
    Jose Berrios
    In the end, whether by design or otherwise, the Twins have positioned themselves much the same way that the Nationals, Cubs and Astros have. By losing a lot of games for several consecutive seasons, they have amassed considerable young baseball talent, much of which is now positioned to arrive and contribute at the Major League level.
     
    Yet you seldom, if ever, see the Twins mentioned in articles bemoaning (or praising) the practice of tanking.
     
    Of course, you also won’t see writers praising the Twins as an organization that has consistently found ways to rebuild on the fly - remaining competitive, as the Athletics have, even after star players move on via trade or free agency.
     
    The result is that General Manager Terry Ryan and the Twins front office get neither the credit (blame?) for being at the forefront of the tanking strategy that Epstein, Luhnow and Rizzo embody, nor the commendations that Beane continues to get for trying to rebuild while continuing to put a teams on the field that are at least close to being worth the price of a Major League ticket to watch.
     
    So did the Twins really tank, and just do a better job of camouflaging it than other teams did, or was Ryan trying to employ the stay-competitive strategy that Beane did, and simply wasn't as effective at identifying and acquiring new talent as his counterpart in Oakland was?
     
    It would be a stretch to say that the Twins were tanking in 2011. They were coming off of an American League Central title season and most of the core players from that team were returning. There’s little doubt that then-GM Bill Smith thought he was creating a roster to contend again that season.
     
    Then came the Tsuyoshi Nishioka disaster and very limited game time from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span in 2011. The result was a 99-loss team.
     
    Another result was that 2011 also saw the return to Ryan to the GM’s office after the season.
     
    Arguably, Ryan followed the Beane approach in his first partial postseason back on the job as General Manager. While his evaluation process was certainly more scout-based and less analytics-based than Beane’s, his addition of players like Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit indicated he was trying to add veterans with value, as Beane does, rather than tear the club down and build it back up from scratch.
     
    Whatever he was trying to do, it didn’t work. 2012 was, once again, a disaster on the field. This led to a consistent, “there isn’t any shortcut,” line of quotes out of Ryan the following offseason.
     
    It also led to the trading of two thirds of the Twins’ starting outfield, Denard Span and Ben Revere, for three pitchers, only one of which had any big league experience at all. Was that indicative of Ryan having decided to go the tanking route?
     
    Even if so, you would never have gotten the GM to admit it then, and probably couldn’t drag it out of him now.
     
    Target Field was still relatively new and so were the taxes being imposed in Hennepin County to pay for it. Joe Mauer, though coming off a challenging season, was still in the early stages of an eight-year mega-million contract. It would have been professional suicide for anyone in the Twins front office to come right out and declare an intent to tank.
     
    Can you imagine Ryan telling the media, “We looked at the draft class we were able to put together after losing 99 games in 2011 and, given that we had so many things go wrong in 2012, we should expect to select a similarly strong class this year. We’ve come to realize that if we continue to lose more than 90 games a while longer, as well, we could really put together an organization that would be poised to field very good teams for a decade or more. So we’re not going to try too hard to win for the next couple of years.”
     
    Given some of the comments that Twins owner Jim Pohlad has made the past couple of offseasons about being tired of losing, I’m not sure Ryan would have dared to express those thoughts to Pohlad, even in private.
    Then again, maybe he did tell Pohlad that. In fact, maybe he told all of us that he was planning to engage that kind of strategy.
     
    Ryan is a man of few words. He doesn’t believe in giving his competitors a free look into his thinking on any subject related to his strategy for roster building. He’ll answer fan and media questions, but often you need to read between the lines a little bit to decipher exactly what he’s saying.
     
    I wonder if it’s possible that he actually did say, “We’ve come to realize that if we continue to lose 95 games a year for a while longer, we could really put together an organization that would be poised to field very good teams for a decade or more. So we’re not going to try too hard to win for the next couple of years.”
     
    It’s just that, when he said it, all we heard was, “there isn’t any shortcut.”
     
    Truth be told, I don't believe the Twins intentionally tanked during any part of the past four years. After all, moves like spending several million dollars on the 2014 in-season signing of Kendrys Morales would not be consistent with intentionally trying to lose as many games as possible.
     
    I think Ryan was simply trying to balance current competitiveness with future success. In other words, he was showing the ethical nobility of Beane's approach, while realizing the same results as those teams who were intentionally assembling losing rosters.
     
    In the end, all that matters is the results and the Twins have a significant number of talented young players about to arrive in the big leagues.
     
    That said, it will be interesting to keep an eye on what anti-tanking steps MLB and/or the Players Union propose be built into the new Collective Bargaining Agreement next year. Specifically, what effect would those proposals have had on, not only teams that made no attempt to disguise their tanking strategies, but also the Twins.
  9. Steven Buhr
    I did something recently that I hadn’t done in probably 15 years.
     
    It used to be a habit. In fact, in retrospect, it may have actually become my very first true habit – something I came to feel I needed. Whether it was a good habit or a bad habit is probably open to debate, depending on one’s perspective.
     
    (This article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
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    The habit had its roots in my youth. My dad was a baseball coach, so I spent most of my spring and summer playing or watching baseball. I spent a lot of time around the high school players that my dad coached and wanted to do pretty much anything that would make me feel connected to real ballplayers.
     
    I turned five years old during the Minnesota Twins’ first season of existence in 1961 and it was at least indirectly because of the way my friends and I followed that team in the early to mid-60s that we eventually began to spend an increasing percentage of our weekly allowances to feed our mutual habit (remember when kids got allowances that they had to learn to live within each week?).
     
    My parents seemed to understand. They were baseball fans, after all, and didn’t want to discourage me from being one, too. Of course, had they known how much money I would eventually spend (arguably, “throw away” might be a more appropriate term) on the habit, they might have more closely supervised or restricted my activities. Then again, people did a lot of things in the 60s that, it turns out, weren’t exactly good ideas.
     
    By the late 1980s, I was more heavily involved with the habit and I could see that my own young son was also taking it up. I was even more of an enabler than my own father had been with me. I didn’t even make my son spend his own money to get started on the habit, I covered a significant portion of the financial commitment necessary to get him hooked.
     
    By the mid 1990s, my son and I were both putting money into buying baseball cards.
     
    He graduated from high school in 2001 and I’m not sure how much he has continued to spend on the habit, but I’m certain he hasn’t kept up with the levels we did when he was younger.
     
    Personally, I have picked up a pack once in a great while, but I hadn’t bought a full multi-pack hobby box of cards for a very long time – until now.
     
    I don’t know what made me backslide. I could probably blame it on the idleness that comes with having retired from my day-job, leading me to spend too many of my cold (and not-so-cold) winter days in bored hibernation. But the honest truth is, I just wanted to do it.
     
    I wanted to buy a box of cards and spend some time opening every pack, looking to see what superstars might emerge as I tore open the packs and thumbed my way through the individual cards - just the way I did when I was eight years old and hoping to find a Harmon Killebrew or Tony Oliva, while I combed past the checklists and the inevitable Bill Monbouquette card that seemed to be present in every pack.
     
    And it felt good. Very good. Maybe dangerously good, for a guy who’s facing a future of living on a relatively fixed (and potentially decreasing) retirement income.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/BuxtonCorreaCard-2-600x400.jpg
    Nice card. Now if it had just been autographed by both of these guys...

    I’m not sure what caused me to backslide. I think perhaps a couple pictures of new cards found their way into my Twitter timeline, triggering a previously buried subliminal command that forced me to spend time entering various baseball card-related phrases into my search engine of choice that day. At least I’ll blame it on Twitter. I blame a lot of things on Twitter, after all.
     
    In the end, I decided to order a box of 2012 Panini Extra Edition Elite cards. Honestly, until the day I ordered them, I hadn’t heard of Panini baseball cards. It turns out, though, that they issue sets of prospect cards each year and the fact that they supposedly included six autographed cards in each hobby box (20 packs with 5 cards per pack) was a selling point.
     
    I figured the 2012 set might include some of the first three classes of Twins-affiliated Cedar Rapids Kernels that I've gotten to know during the past three seasons.
     
    The box arrived Thursday morning. It was smaller than I envisioned it being, but I got past that. Alas, many things from the days of our youth seemed bigger than they really were, in retrospect.
     
    I opened the box and gave some thought about how I wanted to proceed with opening the packs. I considered opening just three or four packs a day, spreading out the fun of opening them over the course of at least a few days.
     
    Yeah, that didn’t happen. I opened the first 10 packs in just minutes, coming across four autographs and a handful of other special “numbered series” cards in the process. I paused at that point to get a drink and look up the names of a couple of the unfamiliar guys I now had autographs of.
     
    I’m not too proud to admit there were a couple of well-regarded prospects in 2012 that I had no recollection of ever hearing about (but I’m also not going to open myself up to public humiliation by admitting exactly who they were).
     
    After acquainting myself with those players, I ripped into the remaining 10 packs.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/KyleTuckerCard-2-600x400.jpg
    About the time this card was being released, Kyle Tucker was turning 15 years old. Three years later he became the Astros' 2015 first round draft choice (5th overall).

    I ended up with seven autograph cards (one more than the promised six - bonus!) and my hopes concerning picking up a few former Kernels/Future Twins were also realized. Among them were Luke Bard, Adam (sans Brett) Walker, Mason Melotakis and J.O. (a.k.a. Jose) Berrios.
     
    Twins pitching prospect J.T. Chargois showed up in a pack, as well, though he never had the honor of wearing a Kernels jersey.
     
    None of the autograph cards were Twins prospects, but I did get a “Building Blocks” card featuring the Astros’ Carlos Correa and Twins uber-prospect Byron Buxton.
     
    Maybe best of all, there wasn’t a Bill Monbouquette in the entire box. In fact, I only had a total of three duplicate cards. (if you're a particular fan of Joe DeCarlo, Brett Mooneyham or Matt Price, let me know and I'll hook you up with a card.)
     
    As I write this, probably three hours or so after opening the last pack of the box, I’m left to wonder what this all means.
     
    I want to convince myself that this was a one-time thing – that buying one box of cards doesn’t mean I’m destined to relapse into the full depths of another epoch of card-collecting. I’m just not sure that even I would believe that.
     
    If you should hear that I’ve decided to take my 401(k) money in a single lump sum, please pray for me.
  10. Steven Buhr
    The pitchers and catchers for the Minnesota Twins have finally reported to Spring Training and position players are already filtering into the Fort Myers camp in advance of their mandatory reporting day later this week. The Twins will open their season in Baltimore on April 4, but from all that’s being written about the Twins, it appears there are only minor questions about the composition of the Opening Day roster and even less question about the Opening Day lineup.
     
    Manager Paul Molitor has stated that Kurt Suzuki will open the season as his club’s starting catcher.
     
    Joe Mauer will be the first baseman.
     
    Brian Dozier will hold down second base.
     
    Trevor Plouffe will man the hot corner at third base.
     
    Eduardo Escobar has earned the right to call the shortstop spot his own.
     
    Eddie Rosario will be the Twins’ left fielder and Miguel Sano will man the opposite corner in right field.
     
    Centerfield is Byron Buxton’s to lose. Yes, there’s a chance the club will decide Buxton needs a month or so in Rochester to fine tune his approach at the plate, giving an opportunity for Danny Santana, Ryan Sweeney, Darin Mastroianni or Joe Benson to serve as a short-term placeholder for Buxton.
     
    And then there’s the designator hitter position, which will belong to Byung Ho Park, the Korean slugger that represents the primary (some would say only) significant free agent addition added to the Twins this offseason.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    Most of that makes perfect sense to me. I think Buxton should go north with the club in April as the centerfielder, but if he doesn’t, I’ll understand the decision (probably) and I’ve actually been on-board with the decision to give Sano an outfielder’s glove and see what he can do with it. I felt that way even before the Twins got Park’s autograph on a contract.
     
    But here’s something I don’t quite understand. Why is virtually everyone so certain that Park will immediately adapt to Major League pitching well enough to be penciled into the middle of the Twins’ batting order right from the start of the new season?
     
    Certainly, I'm not alone in feeling that either Oswaldo Arcia or Kennys Vargas is likely to demonstrate in March that he is better prepared to generate runs for the Twins on Opening Day than newcomer Park might be. Why do many prognosticators seem so certain that Park will be an effective big league hitter on Opening Day while being less convinced that Buxton will?
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Arcia2015ST-600x400.jpg
    Oswaldo Arcia (Photo by SD Buhr)

    I want to see Park succeed as much as any Twins fan but maybe I’m suffering from residual Nishioka flashbacks, because I’m simply not convinced that a player that struck out a lot against Korean Baseball Organization pitching will have immediate success against Major Leaguers.
     
    Does the KBO compare favorably to American AA or AAA levels? Maybe. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that it does. If Park had struck out 303 times at any minor league level over the past two combined seasons, would we be writing his name in ink into the Twins' Opening Day lineup now?
     
    If you forced me to bet an amount of money that it would genuinely hurt me to lose, I would bet that Park’s first regular season professional baseball uniform will have “Red Wings” (or even “Lookouts”) emblazoned across the front of it - and I would not consider that to necessarily mean his acquisition was a mistake. It shouldn’t be surprising to anyone if it takes Park a few weeks or more to earn a spot in the Twins’ lineup.
     
    Arcia and Vargas both must be coming to Fort Myers aware that their respective futures with the Twins are hanging in the balance. I expect that one of them is more likely to be found in Molitor’s first lineup card of the season than Park is.
     
    Finally, what happens if the Sano experiment doesn’t develop the way that the Twins hope it will? That would immediately make Sano the likely Day 1 designated hitter and force the Twins into a Plan B for right field. That would be a Plan B that the front office has not admitted even exists yet.
     
    In that eventuality, again Arcia becomes a likely candidate for reinsertion into the club’s plans as the right fielder.
     
    Park has a better than fair chance of finding his way up to Target Field with the Twins at some point during the 2016 season, but I’m not at all convinced he’ll start the season with the big club.
     
    Here’s my pre-camp projection for the Twins’ Opening Day starting lineup:
     
    1. Buxton CF
    2. Dozier 2B
    3. Mauer 1B
    4. Sano RF/DH
    5. Arcia DH/RF
    6. Plouffe 3B
    7. Rosario LF
    8. Escobar SS
    9. Suzuki C
    SP Santana
     
    Typically, we have to be cautious about reading too much into strong spring training offensive performances. There are too many at-bats against less-than-MLB-level pitchers, especially during the first couple of weeks of spring training games, to get a true reading of just how well prepared a hot hitter might be for a Major League regular’s role.
     
    But there are a number of position players who can’t afford to give poor showings during the first few weeks of spring training games and Park, Arcia and Vargas would be among those whose chances could be damaged by early struggles at the plate.
     
    Sweeney, Mastroianni and Benson similarly need good starts if they want to be viewed as contenders for the stop-gap centerfielder, should the Twins decide Buxton needs some early seasoning in Rochester.
     
    Park, if he doesn’t make the Opening Day lineup, could see an early promotion, as could Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, depending on their performances and those of the players that they might be looking to replace.
     
    The Twins’ lineup is perhaps more settled going into spring training than it has been in most years, but there is some amount of intrigue that will make it worthwhile to pay attention to the box scores coming out of Fort Myers in March.
  11. Steven Buhr
    In an article posted early Friday afternoon, Brian Murphy of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported that Minnesota Twins catcher-turned-first baseman Joe Mauer has continued to suffer from concussion symptoms, including blurred vision, over the past two seasons. (Click here to read the article)
     
    This is some scary stuff.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/MauerST11j-1024x767.jpg
    Joe Mauer (Photo: SD Buhr)

    The Mauer story has been beaten to death, so I won’t rehash everything here. Suffice to say, Mauer was on a near-certain Hall of Fame catching career arc before the beatings he took behind the plate led to multiple concussions and, ultimately, a move to first base.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    The hope was that the position move would allow him to play more games and, not inconsequentially, give him a much better chance of living out the rest of his life without dealing with Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE).
     
    While Mauer has never played more games or made more plate appearances in a season than he did in 2015, he has not hit baseballs in the manner that made him a three-time American League batting champion and 2009 AL MVP. Now, perhaps, we know why.
     
    Murphy included a number of interesting (some would say troubling) quotes from Mauer, including the following two statements concerning the vision problems he would occasionally deal with.
     
    “It could be a lot of things,” Mauer continued. “There are so many different symptoms. For me it was lighting, I couldn’t really pick up the ball. It was blurry at times."
     
    And:
     
    “If you’re just a little off, you’re fouling off pitches you should be driving into the gap,” he said. “In the big leagues, you don’t get too many more opportunities to see good ones to hit.”
     
    This is certainly a true statement. Major League pitchers throw fastballs that run between 90 and 100 miles per hour and mix them with offspeed pitches that prevent even the best hitters (those with perfect vision) from being able to react with perfect timing. Given that Mauer has apparently not benefited from perfect vision, it’s not surprising that he has fallen from the ranks of the game’s best hitters.
     
    But that was not my first reaction to reading the Mauer quote.
     
    I can’t be the only person whose first thought was that, if blurred vision causes Mauer to be, “just a little off,” the last situation into which he should place himself is standing 60 feet away from a man throwing a baseball 95 miles per hour.
     
    Joe Mauer is a professional athlete who has competed at the highest level of his profession and, while he famously may not have a reputation for demonstrating it outwardly in a manner recognizable to fans, he has a competitive nature that no doubt causes him to think first and foremost about how factors influence his ability to perform at levels he has become accustomed to.
     
    It’s easy to see, from the other statements he made to Murphy, that the desire to regain his game and help his team to succeed has resulted in him not only continuing to take the field in spite of continued concussion symptoms, but also be less than 100% forthcoming with his manager and others in the organization about those ongoing symptoms.
     
    I haven’t read much of the social media reaction to this article yet, but I’m sure there will be a lot of criticism of Mauer. After all, criticism of Mauer has almost surpassed drilling holes in the ice and pretending to fish while you drink excessive volumes of bad beer as the favorite pastime of a certain segment of the Minnesota population.
     
    Personally, I’ve made enough poor life decisions in my nearly six decades of time on this planet that I try to refrain from criticizing the decisions others make concerning how they lead their lives.
     
    I’m not concerned right now about whether Mauer’s continued presence in the Twins lineup is a positive or negative for the short, middle or long term success of my favorite MLB team.
     
    I simply do not want to see Mauer’s career end in a frightful manner.
     
    According to the article, Mauer says he has been more asymptomatic during his offseason workouts this year and that he’ll be trying new exercises and even wearing sunglasses this spring to try to keep the vision issues at bay and regain his productivity at the plate.
     
    I hope he’s successful. I hope that this summer, finally, he will be symptom-free and will hit baseballs in a manner that will remind all of us, himself included, of the Joe Mauer we watched before the concussion problems surfaced.
     
    However, if he finds himself unable to see clearly every pitch thrown in his direction at a dangerously high rate of speed, I hope he’ll realize that continuing to expose himself to that kind of risk is not in his best future interests - nor that of his family.
  12. Steven Buhr
    Make a list of the top three things you think are wrong with professional baseball today. In fact, make it five things, if you wish.
     
    A year from now, the landscape regarding those issues is likely to be quite different than it is today. Things may be better, from your point of view, or they may be worse.
     
    I take that back. Unless you’re a Major League ballplayer, they’re almost certainly going to be worse.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    Major League Baseball and the players’ union (MLBPA) are about to begin hammering out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) and the result is likely to have a direct or indirect effect on just about every aspect of professional baseball that any of us care about in the least.
     
    Yes, this is going to be that big.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/mlb-and-union600-600x412.jpg
     
    The thing is, we already know which side is going to win. It will be the players. We just don’t know the final score, yet.
     
    There will also be more than one loser. It won’t be just the owners, though they will certainly be losers, some of them much more than others (that would be you, Minnesota Twins).
     
    Owners/operators of some minor league teams are also possible losers (some of them potentially big losers).
     
    Minor league players will be losers (as they always are in these CBAs).
     
    Amateur ballplayers, in the United States and elsewhere, will be losers.
     
    On the other hand, I’ve looked into my crystal ball and the future looks very, very bright – if you’re Mike Trout. In fact, the future also looks pretty good if you’re swimming anywhere in the top half of the MLB player talent pool.
     
    For the rest of us, though, it could be a very bumpy ride.
     
    In the early 2000s, estimates placed the percentage of MLB revenues paid out in Major League salaries at about 55%. Current estimates have been reported at something close to 43%. The players are clearly going to want to see those numbers project closer to 50% in the new CBA and they have enough leverage this time to get what they want.
     
    You always want to be cautious about speaking ill of the dead, but the former head of the players union, Michael Weiner, who passed away in 2013, arguably gave away the farm to Bud Selig and the owners in his first, and only, CBA negotiation back in 2011.
     
    In his defense, he wasn’t exactly dealt a strong hand going into those negotiations. Players’ reputations were continuing to be tarnished by the image among fans that they had all built their careers on Performance Enhancing Drugs, making it certain that any work stoppage resulting from a failed CBA negotiation would be blamed on the players. Regardless of the reasons, though, the final result was a contract in which the owners got most everything they wanted.
     
    Current MLBPA Executive Director Tony Clark, the first former player to lead the union, should carry a much stronger bargaining position into this round of negotiations.
     
    As a group, baseball’s owners are making money by the boatload, thanks to incredible increases in local television revenues in many markets. That’s a double-edged sword, however, when it comes to negotiating a new CBA.
     
    It makes it impossible for baseball to contend that they can’t afford to give a bigger share of the financial pie to the players, yet those revenues are anything but evenly distributed. As a result, increasing salaries across the board would adversely affect the competitiveness of teams who have not been able to cash in on the local TV bonanza (see: Twins, Minnesota).
     
    On top of that, the owners with those huge TV deals stand to lose a lot of money in the event of a strike or lockout that results in games not being played, as do owners who rely on revenue sharing from those teams. Wide public awareness of the enormous revenues also makes it likely that ownership will be viewed by fans as being primarily at fault for any such work stoppage, should it occur.
     
    The result is a players’ union with a very strong negotiating position and plenty of motivation to take advantage of it.
    Here’s how the union could attempt to go about increasing the share of revenues that go to players’ salaries:
     
    Significantly increase the minimum salary for Major League players
     
    The minimum player's salary was $507,500 in 2015. That may not immediately increase to $1 million in 2017, but it won't be surprising if it's closer to that number than where it currently sits.
     
    This is important to the union because significantly increasing the minimum would potentially result in fewer players signing early team-friendly extensions that buy out arbitration years and, in some cases, free agency years. These extensions are viewed by the union as a drag on average player salaries.
     
    Elimination of the Qualifying Offer/draft pick compensation system for teams that stand to lose free agents
     
    Despite changes that have been made to lessen the market-dampening effect for many free agents, the players still hate this system. It’s seen as being particularly hard on the union’s “upper-middle class” of players – those who aren’t in the elite category, but for whom having to settle for merely $15 million or so on a one year contract is “unfair.”
     
    Significantly reducing the number of years a player is “under team control”
     
    This refers to the total number of years that a club can restrict a player’s ability to shop his services to the highest bidder on the free agent market. It consists of a three-year (usually) period of essential “serfdom,” during which the player has no alternative but to accept whatever salary (subject to the Major League minimum) the team offers and another three-year period of years during which the team must decide whether to offer the player binding arbitration or grant him unconditional release.
     
    The result is a total of six years (in most cases) of team control before a player can become a free agent, meaning that currently a player who makes his MLB debut on or after turning 24 years old will be at least 30 by the time he’s eligible to file for free agency if his team exercises every year of control they have over the player.
     
    In combination with the increased minimum salary, reducing the number of years of team control could make it far more likely that players would forego the additional security of an early team-friendly contract extension, in favor of playing out their arbitration years to reach free agency as soon as possible. It could also make it much more likely that young superstars hit free agency right at their peak, in terms of productivity, rather than somewhere at the beginning of the downside of that curve.
     
    More time off for players
     
    The MLB schedule is a gauntlet. Between the day games after night games and, perhaps worse, the night games followed by cross-country overnight travel to begin another series the next day, the 162-game schedule is more than merely grueling and players want more than the three or so days off each month they currently get. The problem is that, with the extra postseason games resulting from the Wild Card era, the season already is starting and finishing during time periods where no sane person should be trying to play meaningful baseball in many northern big league cities.
     
    One idea often floated to address this problem is to cut the schedule back to the 154 game levels that existed before the leagues expanded from eight to ten teams in the early 1960s. This would result in each team losing four home dates, however, and that would cut into revenues, not only with regard to attendance, but also in programming for those local TV partners that are shelling out big bucks to show the games.
     
    Another possibility would be to expand active rosters. If you have 27 players, for example, instead of 25, it would be easier to give everyone an extra day off occasionally. It probably sounds better in theory than it would work in practice, however. Still, it would increase union membership by 8%, so don’t be shocked if the union pushes the idea pretty hard. In a worst case scenario, it gives them something they can “give up” when it comes time to finding a way to allow the owners to save some face.
     
    Each of these would have the net effect of increasing the share of MLB revenues that go into the pockets of the players, collectively. Since the owners really cannot afford a work stoppage, if the MLBPA is willing to play hardball, we shouldn't bet money against the players' chances of getting some version of these changes. All of them.
     
    What the owners will get
     
    Of course, the owners won’t just cave on those issues while getting nothing in return – and that’s where things can turn bad for the rest of us.
     
    The owners might get more drug testing. After all, the union has gone down this path already, so what’s the big deal about going a bit further? On the other hand, this “give” doesn’t put even a dime in the pockets of the owners, so they aren’t likely to push too hard for it.
     
    The owners want an international draft, to further dampen costs of acquiring new talent. Since giving in on this issue costs the union membership absolutely nothing, they may posture about how unfair it is, but they will capitulate to the owners.
     
    If the owners want further restrictions on bonuses paid to players subject to the draft, both foreign and domestic, the union can give on that issue, too. Again, it doesn’t cost their membership anything, so why not?
     
    Of course, at a time when fewer parents are allowing their sons to play football, giving MLB an ideal opportunity to come up with ways to attract kids back to baseball, this is exactly the time when MLB should be adopting a system that encourages the best athletes in this country and around the world to choose baseball as a potential career over other sports, not discourage it.
     
    But that might cost money and owners, by the time this subject gets addressed at the negotiating table, are probably going to be ticked off about the extra money they’re having to shell out to players already in the big leagues, so we shouldn't expect logic to win the day.
     
    Indirect side effects on the rest of us
     
    Unfortunately, none of the ownership "wins" are going to even come close to making up for the money the owners are going to lose to their players in this deal, so they’re going to end up looking elsewhere to recoup some of those bucks.
     
    This is where minor league players, teams and fans should start feeling nervous.
     
    Minor league players, you can forget about seeing your pay go up to anything close to a living wage. Consider yourselves lucky if they don’t lower your base pay. After all, neither the union nor the owners are looking out for your interests in this negotiation.
     
    You might find yourself with less competition for that low paying minor league roster spot you’ve got, though.
     
    The number of minor league teams with MLB affiliations hasn’t changed significantly in decades. The current working agreement between MLB and MiLB assures owners of current affiliated minor league teams of having a MLB affiliation every year, but that agreement expires after 2020. Renegotiation of that agreement is just one of many things that is waiting for the completion of the new CBA.
     
    If owners decide they have been terribly abused under the new CBA, it shouldn't be too surprising to see them propose elimination of some affiliated minor leagues.
     
    That would mean fewer communities with affiliated minor league teams, fewer jobs for minor league staff, fewer spots for minor league players and fewer games for minor league fans to attend.
     
    Is this a Doomsday scenario that can’t possibly happen? Maybe. But neither MLB nor the players' union has ever been shy about screwing over minor leaguers in CBA negotiations. After all, minor league teams and players are not represented in those negotiating sessions, making it easy for both sides to sacrifice minor league interests if it means getting something of even moderate value in return. It's not unlikely that minor league baseball could look a little bit different in 2021 than it does today if Major League owners determine it's in their best financial interests to impose significant changes.
     
    A year from now, we’ll likely know a lot more about the changes coming for professional baseball going forward. Unless you happen to be a big league ballplayer today, you have a right to feel very uneasy about those changes.
  13. Steven Buhr
    In 2015, Twins outfield prospect Max Kepler had his long-awaited breakout season, primarily with the Class AA Chattanooga Lookouts. He was the Southern League Player of the Year and, immediately after his Lookouts team won the Southern League Championship, Kepler was on his way to join the Twins for the remainder of the 2016 season.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Kepler2015a-600x400.jpg
    Max Kepler

    Kepler had an injury-plagued season in 2013, not being able to even join the Cedar Rapids Kernels until mid-June due to an arm injury. In 2014, he made progress with the Fort Myers Miracle, but still wasn’t wowing the supposed “experts.” He had a very good stint in the Arizona Fall League in 2014, however, setting the stage for his outstanding 2015 season.
     
    This has led to some conjecture as to what his role might/could/should be in 2016. The topic became the subject of a Twitter exchange I participated in on Monday but making a thoughtful argument on a matter like this in 140 character bites is all but impossible.
     
    Fortunately, I have a blog that has no such limit.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) ​
     
    I don’t recall how the topic was originally raised, but in essence, I believe the question of Kepler perhaps being utilized as the Twins’ fourth outfielder in 2016 was posed.
     
    The immediate reaction, from informed persons with considerable experience and knowledge on such matters, was that Kepler would not and should not open the season with the Twins if he’s not going to be one of the three starting outfielders. In that case, he should begin the year on the farm where he’ll be an everyday player, preparing for a possible mid-season promotion.
     
    This is a reasoned and logical view. It’s a view I would have shared a year ago. It’s a view I wouldn’t necessarily criticize the Twins’ front office for taking this spring, either.
     
    But I don’t necessarily agree it would be the correct approach in 2016.
     
    I don’t think we can rely too much on one very impressive season out of Kepler (or any prospect) and we can’t assume that he’s going to pick up in March right where he left off in Septermber, though he will get an opportunity to impress coaches and the front office during the Twins’ spring training. He may struggle against what passes for big league pitching in the initial spring training games and, if so, the only decision to be made will be whether he opens 2016 in Rochester or back in Chattanooga.
     
    Just for the sake of argument, though, let’s assume he opens strong and is successful against the March versions of Major League pitching he faces, but not to the extent that he forces his way into one of the top three outfield spots with the Twins.
     
    Now, what do you do?
     
    Option one, of course, is that you still send him to the minors where he’ll play every day.
     
    Option two is that you bring him north to Minnesota to open the season as the Twins’ fourth outfielder.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Kepler2015d-1414939-474x600.jpg
    Max Kepler

    With a prospect of his caliber, conventional wisdom is that you don’t want him rotting on the big league team’s bench. You want him honing his craft in the upper minors by getting daily looks at quality pitching (though, clearly, not MLB level “quality”).
     
    I’m not prepared to just blindly follow conventional wisdom, in this case, however. It may be conventional, but I’m not convinced it’s wise.
     
    As things currently stand, the Twins’ starting outfield is likely to be some three-man combination of the following four players: Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. If Trevor Plouffe remains the Twins’ starting third baseman on Opening Day, it’s quite possible that all four of the aforementioned men are with the Twins, making Arcia the likely “fourth outfielder.”
     
    But, again, for the sake of argument, let’s assume Plouffe, Rosario or Arcia is not with the organization, Buxton struggles in spring training or the Sano-as-outfielder experiment goes bust.
     
    In our “what if” scenario, then, the Twins are left with the choice of adding a replacement level fourth outfielder in the Shane Robinson mold or making Keper that fourth outfielder.
     
    If the Twins were still in the midst of a run of 95-loss season futility, Kepler would be farmed out. If you have little hope of competing for the postseason, you give your top prospects all kinds of time to develop in the minors, even if they might make your big league club marginally better. You’re planning and playing for the future, when you can contend.
     
    But the Twins of 2016 are no longer rebuilding. To my mind, every roster decision they make coming out of spring training should answer only one question – who gives us the best chance to win games at the MLB level?
     
    I simply don’t buy the argument that Kepler’s development would be damaged by being the Twins’ fourth outfielder, as opposed to being a regular in Rochester if – BIG IF – he demonstrates that he is not overwhelmed by big league pitching.
     
    Given the likely composition of the Twins’ starting outfield (and the fact that Paul Molitor, not Ron Gardenhire, is the Twins’ manager), Kepler would not rot on the bench. Most starting outfielders get one game off each week, either entirely off or where they serve as the designated hitter. That would potentially give Kepler three starts every week. At worst, he would start twice and pinch hit a time or two.
     
    Together, Shane Robinson and Jordan Schafer averaged over ten plate appearances per week for the Twins in 2015 and they were not the only reserves who saw time in the Twins outfield.
     
    Reynaldo Rodriguez led the Red Wings, playing in 132 of Rochester’s 140 games in 2015. He averaged about 25 plate appearances per week. If you subscribe to the “promote Kepler at mid-season” philosophy, he’s not going to come anywhere close to that number, anyway.
     
    If the Twins can find a dozen plate appearances for Kepler each week at the big league level and if he demonstrates he is not overmatched in those opportunities, I would rather he learn to hit MLB pitching in the Major Leagues, not simply continue to show a proficiency for hitting good minor league pitching.
     
    But that’s not really the point, anyway.
     
    The point is that these Twins should be doing absolutely everything within their power to win Major League games. They found out in 2015 just how important every single win is and that a win in September is no more important than a win in April.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Kepler2-600x400.jpg
    Max Kepler, in Arizona Fall League (2014)

    For that reason, if the Twins believe that Max Kepler’s presence, whether it’s his defense, his baserunning, his pinch-hitting or his ability to ably fill in as a starting outfielder two or three times a week, is likely to result in more wins over the course of the season than whoever else they might alternatively utilize in that role, then that’s all that really matters. You keep Kepler in April, period, even if that means Kepler doesn’t reach his full potential as a big leaguer for another year.
     
    The Twins – and their fans – need to stop thinking like an organization still “waiting until next year.” Next year is now and the Twins should need to begin acting like they plan to compete with the Kansas City Royals for dominance of the American League Central Division and do so beginning in 2016.
     
    That means you bring your best 25 players to Minnesota with you in April. If that includes Max Kepler (and/or Byron Buxton and/or Jose Berrios), then so be it
     
    (All photos above of Max Kepler by S D Buhr)
  14. Steven Buhr
    Last week, Minnesota Twins General Manager Terry Ryan went back-to-back-to-back making three deals in three days in an effort to improve his club, winning the bidding for the right to negotiate with Korean slugging first baseman/DH Byung-ho Park, trading backup catcher Chris Herrmann for a prospect, which cleared the way for catcher John Ryan Murphy to be added via trade.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Ryan2015-600x399.jpg
    After one or two more roster adjustments, Terry Ryan should R-E-L-A-X. (Photo: SD Buhr)

    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    It has been almost a week since the last of those deals was announced, so the question has become, “Now what?”
     
    I felt the catching situation was the most glaring need that had to be addressed this offseason and Ryan & Co. appear to have resolved that situation with the addition of Murphy.
     
    Now, where should the GM turn his focus?
     
    Given the state of the Twins the past four offseasons, it seems odd to say it, but I think Ryan's offseason work should be about done already.
     
    Let’s take a position-by-position look at where the Twins stand right at this moment, with some thoughts as to how they could still be improved.
     
    Between incumbent catcher Kurt Suzuki and the newly-acquired Murphy, the position appears to be set. If Ryan could find a taker for Suzuki, they could just hand the starting job to Murphy and look for another backup, but that seems highly unlikely.
     
    Joe Mauer is at first base and isn’t going anywhere. The Twins added another first baseman in Park, which was surprising to most of us, so the odds are stacked high against seeing another one added. Kennys Vargas remains on the periphery of the 1B/DH mix and now we’re seeing reports that he could make a good sized payday in Korea or Japan if the Twins are willing to sell his contract.
     
    Brian Dozier will play second base. If the Twins get an offer they can’t refuse for Dozier, Jorge Polanco would likely get his shot at a permanent promotion to the big leagues. It's hard to imagine the Twins adding someone else to the mix. James Beresford performed well in Rochester, but he's a minor league free agent again this year and is at least an even bet to sign elsewhere after the Twins didn't even give him a look in September.
     
    Eduardo Escobar did everything anyone could ask of him at shortstop in 2015 and appears to have given the Twins the stability they’ve lacked at the position since the ill-advised trade of J.J. Hardy to the Orioles. The Twins will also have Danny Santana around as a utility player, should Escobar falter. It’s unlikely the Twins will go looking for another shortstop.
     
    Everyone seems to think that third base is already crowded. Trevor Plouffe is still manning the hot corner, but is looking over his shoulder at the hulking figure of Miguel Sano. This has led many to recommend that the Twins trade Plouffe this offseason and hand the position to Sano.
     
    While that might make sense, providing that Ryan could get fair value for Plouffe on the market (I’m not all that certain would be the case, but it’s possible), making that deal would mean putting all of the club’s third base “eggs” in the Sano basket. That makes me nervous.
     
    Maybe Sano can play third base competently every day, but that’s hardly a certainty. If Plouffe is sent packing, Ryan had better have a reliable Plan B ready to step into the position. With Plouffe gone, who would that be?
     
    There are few internal options that manager Paul Molitor could plug in. Do we want to see Eduardo Núñez as the Twins’ starting third baseman? Polanco and Santana have rarely played the position, even in minor league ball, but maybe one or both could do it.
     
    Could a Plouffe trade be followed by the acquisition of a stop-gap type? Conceivably, yes. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook projects 37-year-old Juan Uribe to sign a one-year deal for $3 million. That sounds a little high, to me, for Uribe, but if it’s in that neighborhood, it wouldn’t be a bad price for this particular situation.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/PlouffeST2015-600x400.jpg
    Trevor Plouffe in a Twins uniform, where he should stay, at least for now (Photo: SD Buhr)

    Unless Ryan is really wowed by an offer for Plouffe, however, I think he’s better off keeping the status quo. Let’s see how Sano handles the position (and how he handles his sophomore season at the plate) before running the risk of turning the third sack back into the black hole it was between the departure of Corey Koskie and the arrival of Plouffe.
     
    Likewise, the outfield appears pretty full, even with the departure of Aaron Hicks to the Yankees in the Murphy deal.
    Eddie Rosario will be in one corner and the Twins are hoping Byron Buxton claims centerfield right out of spring training. They’ve expressed their intention to teach Sano to play a corner outfield spot, especially now that Park seems likely to get most of the DH at-bats. Oswaldo Arcia is another internal outfield option, but the Twins won’t (or shouldn’t, anyway) consider any option that results in Arcia and Sano sharing the same outfield, no matter how good the man in centerfield is. Max Kepler earned the opportunity to impress coaches and the front office enough in spring training to claim an Opening Day roster spot, but I suspect they'll start him in Rochester, especially if the alternative is a fourth-outfielder role with the Twins.
     
    And then there’s the pitching staff.
     
    The predominant theory seems to be that the Twins have plenty of internal options to fill out their rotation, but need to look to the free agent and/or trade market to improve their bullpen.
     
    I disagree. Not that the bullpen wasn’t bad (it was), but I disagree with that approach to fixing it. I would prefer to fix the bullpen by improving the rotation even more.
     
    There are four pitchers that you have to figure should be locks to open in the Twins’ rotation. Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes will, unless traded or injured before then, open the year as Twins starters.
    Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios and Ricky Nolasco all have starter pedigrees, in the minors and/or Major Leagues, and any of the five could earn the Twins’ fifth rotation spot. But if the Twins are set on being more than just a borderline contender in the American League Central Division, you have to ask yourself whether they could do better than those five pitchers in that final rotation opening.
     
    Now, I’m a Zack Greinke fan from way back. After the 2010 season, I advocated here for the Twins to engineer a trade with the Royals to acquire Greinke. Five years later, I’d still love to have him at the top of the Twins’ rotation, but the Twins are not going to shell out the $25+ million per year over 5+ years that is being projected as being what it will take to sign the free agent - alas, nor should they.
     
    Likewise, you can pretty much rule out names like Price, Cueto, Samardzija and Zimmerman, all of which are likely to garner $100+ million/5+ year deals on the open market. That’s an awful big commitment to make to pitchers who, in each case, come with some significant question marks about their abilities to perform at “ace” levels for the next half-decade. Only Price, in my view, is worth that kind of money. Unfortunately, he won’t be had for that kind of money – it will likely take over $200 million to get him. Ouch.
     
    Berrios is a future Twins starter. May and Meyer could very well be future rotation fixtures, as well. The big unknown, in each case, is the definite arrival time of that future. We just don’t know. It could be April, 2016, and if it is, for just one of those pitchers, then the rotation question is asked and answered.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/MayST15a-600x400.jpg
    Trevor May - Bullpen or rotation in 2015? Answer: yes (Photo: SD BUhr)

    However, like the situation with Sano as a full time third baseman, relying on any of the five possible fifth starters currently on the roster to be good enough to help propel the Twins into an elite-level team in 2016 is pretty risky.
     
    If Ryan decides to take that risk, it’s fine with me, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the Twins take a one-year flyer on Doug Fister, who certainly will be looking for a make-good contract to rebuild his value with an eye on trying free agency again next year. Two years ago, Fister was traded to Washington after 2 ½ successful years in a Tigers uniform. Had he been a free agent a year ago after notching a 2.31 ERA over 25 starts for the Nationals, he’d have undoubtedly been near the top of every team’s free agent starting pitcher wish-list.
     
    But he was Washington property for another year and he did not live up to expectations in 2015, to put it mildly. He lost his starting rotation spot as the dysfunctional Nationals faltered and he finished the season working out of the bullpen.
     
    Could a return to the familiar AL Central spur a revival of Fister’s starting career? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t mind if the Twins spent $10-15 million or so to find out. At that price, they can afford the risk. If it works out, he’s more than just another fifth starter. If it doesn’t work, all they’ve lost is a few bucks and they move on with whoever is looking the best from among the internal options.
     
    With a rotation of Santana, Duffey, Gibson, Hughes and Fister, you are left with a lot of pretty strong options to improve your bullpen.
     
    Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen will be there. You have to be concerned with the way Perkins pitched the last half of 2015 and I’m not certain Jepsen is really as good as he looked after being acquired from the Rays, but those two will be cornerstones of the 2016 relief corps, if they’re healthy.
     
    Now, just for fun, plug the following five arms into the bullpen: Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios and Ricky Nolasco.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/BerriosOlivaST2015-600x400.jpg
    Jose Berrios and Tony Oliva chatted during a spring training game in March. They should be able to have chats like this at Target Field in 2016 (Photo: SD Buhr)

    Yes, that leaves just Perkins and Milone as lefty arms, so I’d like to see Logan Darnell make the team, meaning Nolasco is cut loose or one of Meyer/Berrios is kept in Rochester to stay stretched out in case there’s an early hole to plug in the rotation.
     
    No team survives a season without running 7-10 pitchers through their rotation during the year and all five of these guys could work their way into starting roles either by their own performance or attrition among those who open the year as starters.
     
    But the point remains that the Twins have pitching that is capable of bolstering their bullpen and I’d spend $10-15 million to take a chance on Fister improving the rotation. Then, as the dominoes fall, quality internal pitchers are pushed to the bullpen.
     
    To me, that’s preferable to making multi-year commitments to one or more of the flavor-of-the-month relief arms available in free agency when the Twins have guys like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, J.T. Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Zach Jones, Alex Wimmers and Mason Melotakis (to name just a few), any of which could become high-quality internal bullpen options before 2016 is over. Even 2015 top draft pick Tyler Jay, who will be given an opportunity to work in a minor league rotation somewhere to start the season, could be called on for a big league relief role, if needed at some point.
     
    The best free agent bullpen arms will command large, multi-year deals, which the Twins should not invest in, and the next tier on the open market are no more likely to provide consistent quality relief innings than the Twins’ own internal options.
     
    The bottom line, for me, is that Terry Ryan can get Park signed, make a deal with Fister, then go on vacation, as far as I’m concerned. If he can get someone to take Nolasco’s contract off his hands, terrific, but otherwise, I’d be content to head to spring training with that roster.
  15. Steven Buhr
    Here we are in the final week of the 2015 MLB season and the Twins are still in contention for a playoff spot. All things considered, that’s pretty incredible. Virtually none of us expected this when the season began.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/what-if-600x304.jpg
    Hoped for it? Sure. We all hope for it. We’ve hoped for it for the past four years, too, but show me someone who went on record in April that the Twins would have a .500 record locked down and still be pushing for a wild card berth, then I’ll believe someone actually expected this to happen.
     
    (This article ​was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    The Twins front office, their manager and coaching staff, and particularly the players, deserve a lot of credit for putting the team in this unlikely circumstance. Twins fans should all appreciate the hard work that has produced the most encouraging Twins season in at least five years.
     
    And yet…
     
    It’s really hard for me not to play a little “what if?” game. If the Twins are not able to overcome both the Astros and Angels to capture the coveted final American League wild card spot, they’ll almost certainly finish within a couple of games of doing so.
     
    A couple of games.
     
    That makes it pretty easy to go back and look for opportunities that were lost to turn enough losses into wins to put the Twins in the playoffs.
     
    The easy part is looking at late game leads that were blown by a failed relief pitching, by a late error, by a baserunning mistake or by failing to capitalize on runners in scoring position. Those examples are easy to come by.
     
    Then again, you can say that about literally every team that finishes just short of the postseason, every year.
     
    Similarly, though to a lesser extent, fans of any team that falls just short can come up with strategic managing/coaching decisions that failed and, ultimately, led to enough losses to make a difference. Not every decision made by a team’s manager is going to work and when a decision ends up in a loss, second-guessing is easy and, with Paul Molitor in his first season as a manager at any level, there have been plenty of second-guess-worthy decisions to choose from if you want to find a couple of games that could have had better outcomes.
     
    And then there’s the front office.
     
    On August 3, I wrote about my disappointment with the lack of results from the Twins at the non-waiver trade deadline.
     
    To demonstrate that none of us are above being second-guessed, I obviously undervalued the addition of Kevin Jepsen at that time. Despite being underwhelmed with the Jepsen trade, my biggest problem wasn’t the trade itself or the prospects that were given up for the reliever. My problem with it was that it was the only deal made.
     
    It seemed to me that either General Manager Terry Ryan should have acquired more help for his manager to take in to the final two months of the season than just an additional bullpen arm or he shouldn’t have bothered going out to get even that much.
     
    Clearly, Jepsen has been a life-saver in light of the free-fall we’ve seen from closer Glen Perkins. Without Jepsen, the Twins would have almost certainly been eliminated before now, so kudos to the front office for that deal. I was wrong about Jepsen.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Ryan2015-600x399.jpg
    Terry Ryan must feel it's lonely at the top at times (Photo: SD Buhr)

    I’m still playing coulda-shoulda-woulda, however, on the question of whether there might not have been one or two other deals that “coulda-shoulda” been made in July that “woulda” made more than a couple games’ difference in the Twins fortunes this year.
     
    It’s an impossible question to answer, of course. And, to be fair, you can’t just throw out a name and say, “if the Twins had gone out and gotten this guy, they’d be playoff bound by now.” There’s no way to know that.
    The primary positions most people talked about upgrading were shortstop and catcher.
     
    But would any of the shortstops available at the time done better at solidifying the position than Eduardo Escobar has? That’s a debate we could have, but it’s certainly not a given that any addition would have been a net-gain over Escobar for the Twins in the win column.
     
    Kurt Suzuki has struggled to control opponents’ running games, but catching is about so much more than throw-out rates that I think it’s impossible to say whether a change at the starting catcher position would have had a positive effect on the team over the final two months. We simply don’t know what effects that would have had on the effectiveness of the pitching staff.
     
    Could the Twins have added a starting pitcher at the deadline? Sure. But you have to ask who would have been the likely odd man out of the rotation to make room for a newcomer. It doesn’t take much imagination to consider that it might have been rookie Tyler Duffey. The same Tyler Duffey who has been arguably the most consistent starter in the rotation over the final two months.
     
    If the Twins end up falling short of the playoffs this week, it will be almost impossible for us not to ask, “what if?” I know I’ll do plenty of that.
     
    Sure, we can pretty much all agree that this Twins roster doesn’t look like it’s built for a deep playoff run this season, anyway. With the young talent in the pipeline, maybe 2016 or 2017 will be more likely seasons for legitimate title contention.
     
    But, as Twins fans have learned, you can’t for granted any opportunity you get to qualify for the postseason. You can’t assume other opportunities are just around the corner. Stuff happens and that stuff isn’t always good stuff.
     
    So I’ll continue to ask, “what if?” I’ll continue to maintain that more help should have been brought on in July; that Molitor was not given the tools to make a legitimate playoff run this season.
     
    I’ll also acknowledge, however, that it wouldn’t have been easy and that there’s no assurance that any such additional “help” would have necessarily improved the results. I’m smart enough to know that any additional “help” that would have been brought in might have actually ended up resulting in fewer wins, rather than more (see: Nationals, Washington).
     
    In the end, I’m glad it was Terry Ryan making those decisions in July, rather than me. Ryan may not have done everything right and he’s certainly accustomed to second-guessing from people like me. It all goes with the GM job.
     
    And we are still paying attention to the Twins during the final two series of the season. I’d almost forgotten how much fun that is.
  16. Steven Buhr
    If you go to the web site of the baseball program at the University of South Carolina-Aiken, you’ll find a link listing all of the Pacer ballplayers who are playing professional baseball.
     
    Well, not quite all of them.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Miller2015b.jpg
    Sean Miller (Photo: SD Buhr)

    Cedar Rapids Kernels infielder Sean Miller spent three years in a Pacers uniform and he’s now played for two minor league teams, but South Carolina-Aiken’s webmaster hasn’t updated the list since last September and Miller just wrapped up his college career this past spring.
     
    ​(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    Miller, the first of the Minnesota Twins’ 2015 draft class to suit up for the Kernels this season (Chris Paul joined Cedar Rapids later), was a “young junior,” to use Kernels manager Jake Mauer’s words. He was just 20 years old throughout his junior year of college and won’t turn 21 until after the current season ends.
     
    That may have been one factor that the Twins found attractive about Miller, whom they selected in the 10th round of the 2015 draft. The Twins sent the middle infielder to their Appalachian League affiliate in Elizabethton, Tennessee, just about a four hour drive north of his college campus in Aiken, immediately after signing him to a contract that included a reported $125,000 bonus.
     
    It was a short stay for Miller in Tennessee. On July 11, he was promoted to the Kernels.
     
    The quick promotion caught Miller a bit by surprise.
     
    “Actually, it did. Kind of a lot,” Miller admitted. “Because I was only in Etown for two or three weeks, I guess. I played in 12 or 13 games (it was officially 11 games). So it was definitely surprising, but it was really exciting.
     
    “I was playing good defense there and I was hitting okay. I was hitting balls hard but I didn’t have a great average or numbers, like that.”
     
    Short as it was, Miller said he enjoyed getting his first taste of professional ball in Elizabethton.
     
    “It was exactly what I was expecting. It was awesome to get a chance to play and be on your own and just get the whole experience of it.”
     
    In truth, Miller was hitting just .209 in Elizabethton when he was promoted to Cedar Rapids. But his numbers since joining the Kernels have been much more encouraging. He’s not showing a lot of power, but he carried a .303 batting average with the Kernels through this past weekend.
     
    “Sean’s put the ball in play and gives us a little bit of speed that, obviously with (Tanner) English gone, we’ve been lacking a little bit,” Mauer said of Miller.
     
    Miller played high school ball in Maryland for his father, Steve Miller, who had his own five-year minor league career after being the 13th round pick of the San Francisco Giants in the 1983 June Amateur Draft.
     
    Having a dad with that kind of background comes with both advantages and disadvantages.
     
    "It’s always hard with him being your dad,” Miller conceded. “You don’t want to listen to him, but you have to because you know he’s been there. He’s been through the same stuff you’re going through.
     
    “It’s definitely (a battle), always arguing about something, but you’ve just got to realize that he knows more than you do.”
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Miller2015a.jpg
    Sean Miller (Photo: SD Buhr)

    The elder Miller has made two trips to see his son in his first minor league season, one to Tennessee and the other to Cedar Rapids.
     
    The Kernels infielder said his dad’s advice has remained on the practical side from the beginning.
     
    “He always kind of told me it’s not as glamorous as everyone makes it out to be. It’s more of a job than a game now. And it’s kind of how he described it. He was pretty right on it.”
     
    Miller is finding that to be true as he nears the end of a year that began in the Peach Belt Conference and is concluding in the Class A Midwest League. He’s found there’s a pretty significant difference in the quality of the pitchers he’s now facing.
     
    “It’s definitely a lot better, more consistent” Miller acknowledged. “Night in, night out, you face guys that are definitely a lot better. Position players, too. A lot of the outfielders, if they get a chance, they’re going to run it down and catch it. They’re not going to allow a hit there. It takes some getting used to.”
     
    As you’d expect, Miller is happy with the success he’s had thus far with the Kernels.
     
    “Definitely,” he confirmed. “I’m just trying to come in every day and have fun and just play ball.”
     
    So far, Miller has found the biggest challenge in pro ball to be just maintaining an even keel over the course of a long season.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Miller2015c.jpg
    Sean Miller (Photo: SD Buhr)

    “I think getting too high, sometimes you have a good game and you’re kind of up here,” Miller said, lifting his hand toward the top of his head. “And you come up the next night and go 0 for 4 or something like that. I mean it sucks, but you’ve got to find a happy medium there and kind of stay consistent with your attitude. Can’t get too excited when you have a good game and can’t get too upset about a bad game.”
     
    His manager concurs, but feels the Miller is off to a good start.
     
    “He’s handled himself good,” Mauer added, of Miller. “He needs to learn what it takes to play every day and maintain his strength. It’s going to be a big offseason for him to get bigger and stronger and continue to improve his speed, but he’s been very good for us.
     
    “He’s been doing a pretty nice job in the middle of the infield, mostly just shortstop is all that he’s played. He’s learning how to play second and handled himself pretty good there.”
     
    Off the field, you are likely to find Miller on a golf course.
     
    “I like to play golf,” he said. “I haven’t really got a chance to play too much, lately, but hopefully I’ll get a chance in the offseason.”
     
    Miller said he’ll make South Carolina his primary home once the season ends.
     
    “I’ll be back and forth between Maryland and South Carolina, but I just kind of wanted to get started and be on my own a little bit.”
  17. Steven Buhr
    In each of the past several seasons, the Cedar Rapids Kernels have held an “Autism Awareness Night” at the Veterans Memorial Stadium, with the Kernels wearing special jerseys that are auctioned off to benefit The East Central Iowa Autism Society.
     
    The Society’s web site reports that the rate of autism is currently 1 in 88. However, as the site goes on to point out, “To most Americans, 1 in 88 is a number. To the families of a child with autism, our 1 in 88 has a face and a name.”
     
    For one Kernels player, that face is his younger brother’s and that name is Max.
     
    Cedar Rapids outfielder Zack Larson doesn’t need to wear a special jersey to remain aware of autism. In the unlikely event that Larson would require such a reminder, he needs only to look at his own right arm and the tattoo there consisting of the puzzle piece logo, widely used to promote autism awareness, along with his brother’s name.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Larson2015c.jpg
    Zack Larson carries brother Max's name with him via the tattoo on his arm. (Photo: SD Buhr)

    Larson’s a native of the Bradenton, Florida, area, but moved to Virginia with his family when he was just five years old.
     
    “I lived there for four years,” Larson recalled, “then, my little brother was born in Virginia and was diagnosed with autism. So we moved back down to Florida where we found a school for him to go to. That’s where we’ve been since.”
     
    Max and the rest of Larson’s family follow Zack and the Kernels as closely as possible from Florida.
     
    “They bought that (MiLB.tv) package so they watch the games on TV that are there to watch and they listen to every game with Morgan (Kernels radio broadcaster Morgan Hawk). My mom came (to Cedar Rapids) in May, so it was good to see her.”
     
    If, as you’d expect, Max looks up to his big brother the ballplayer, it’s equally apparent that Zack admires Max, as well.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ZackMaxLarson.jpg
    Zack Larson grew a mustache in high school and his brother Max got one, too. (Photo: courtesy Zack Larson)

    “He has pretty severe autism,” Larson explained. "He doesn’t talk very well but he knows words. He’s really brilliant on the computer. He knows how to work every electronic thing you can think of. My dad won’t know how to turn on something and Max will go in there and turn it on right away. My dad’s like, ‘what the heck?’ He’s a genius when it comes to electronics and computers and stuff.
     
    “Not many people totally understand what it’s all about. It was eye-opening for me when I first started to understand what my brother was diagnosed with. I was still young. It made me a better person, it made my family better people and it’s a blessing to have my brother.”
     
    Larson was signed out of high school in 2012 after being drafted by the Twins in the 20th round. Like virtually all high school players that are drafted, he had to choose between starting his professional career immediately or going to college first and trying to improve his future draft status. It really wasn’t a difficult decision for Larson, however.
     
    “I signed with a junior college, but ever since I was a little kid, I always wanted to be a professional baseball player and the Twins gave me the opportunity,” Larson recalled. “I didn’t want to pass on it. I could have gone to college and got hurt and could have never gotten another chance to play professional baseball.”
     
    Larson said he did discuss options with his family, but, in the end, “it was always my childhood dream to play pro ball, so I did it.”
     
    Had Larson gone to a four year college instead, he’d have been a draftable junior in this year’s draft. That’s not something he gives any thought to, however.
     
    “I don’t play any ‘what if’ games. I just did what I wanted to do. I just followed my dream and I haven’t looked back since.”
     
    Is he happy with how that dream has turned out, so far?
     
    “Yeah, absolutely. It’s awesome.”
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Larson2015b.jpg
    Zack Larson

    Larson played 41 games with the Kernels a year ago, but missed much of the season with a hamstring injury. The result of missing so much time with an injury was being assigned, again, to Cedar Rapids this spring as he works to resume his rise up the Twins’ organizational ladder.
     
    “My goal was just to have good quality at-bats, not to give any at-bats away,” Larson said, of his plans for 2015. “Just get on base however I can. I never really set any number goals or any of that. I wanted to get to the playoffs the first half and we did.”
     
    Larson got off to a slow start in April, hitting just .211 for the month, but he and Kernels hitting coach Tommy Watkins have been working together and that work is starting to show results.
     
    “I’m working with Tommy just on staying through the ball, working down to the ball instead of lifting the ball,” Larson explained. “I’ve been getting under it and lifting it. I’ve just been working with Tommy every day in the cage and starting to improve.”
     
    Larson has been particularly effective at driving in runs for the Kernels, hitting .347 with runners in scoring position and leading his team with 39 Runs Batted In headed in to the July 4 weekend.
     
    Watkins said he likes what he’s seeing from his pupil.
     
    “He’s got a pretty good swing,” Watkins observed. “We’re just working with him on using the whole field, trying to drive some balls to the gap. Right now, just trying to get him to stay on top of the ball and use the middle to the opposite way. To pull the ball, let that happen on its own.
     
    “He’s a student of the game and he’s a guy that I look to lead our club, being here last year. He’s more of a quiet guy and he’ll lead more by example than anything, but I look for him to be a leader on this team. Great guy with runners in scoring position. He hunts out those RBIs and that’s a good thing.”
     
    Larson and his teammates put together a 41-29 record in the first half of their Midwest League season, good enough to lock up a playoff spot by finishing second in the Western Division, but they know they have more work to do.
     
    “We had a pretty good first half, but we think we can do better,” Larson said. “We had a meeting with Jake (manager Jake Mauer) and he said that if we had averaged four runs per game, we could have won 50 games in the first half. So, we were like, ‘what the heck, we can score four runs.’
     
    “We don’t want to take the second half lightly, we want to show the teams that we’re playing some ball and we’re ready for the playoffs, that we can push it all the way into the playoffs and make a run.”
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
  18. Steven Buhr
    The Midwest League’s Eastern Division All-Stars took two hours and forty-four minutes to top their Western Division counterparts 5-0 in Peoria Tuesday night, but any Cedar Rapids fans who made the trip hoping to watch the Kernels’ representatives had to be careful with the timing of any trips to the concession stand.
     
    Pitchers Felix Jorge, Jared Wilson, Trevor Hildenberg and Cam Booser spent less than a combined 15 minutes on the mound while throwing a total of two and one-third innings for the West.
     
    Jorge needed just ten pitches to retire all three hitters he faced in a perfect 3rd inning, striking out one.
     
    Wilson started the 8th inning and was just as efficient, using just seven pitches to get through his assigned two outs, including a strikeout.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/KernelsASG2015.jpg
    Kernels MWL All-Stars Jared Wilson, Cam Booser, Trevor Hildenberger, Trey Vavra and Felix Jorge (Photo: SD Buhr)

    Hildenberger relieved Wilson and used just four pitches to finish the inning with a strikeout of his own.
     
    Booser was assigned the first out of the 9th inning, entering with the West trailing 2-0. He walked one and gave up a pair of hits before getting an out on a bouncer back to him on the mound.
     
    The four Kernels pitchers threw just 34 pitches between them, but All-Star games aren’t all about playing time.
     
    This article originally was posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    Hildenberg and Jorge agreed afterward that the experience was well worth the trip.
     
    “It was fun,” Hildenberger said, between bites of his postgame meal. “Getting to meet players you play against, talking to them about how their seasons are going. And to pitch in an All-Star game is an honor.”
     
    Jorge, who’s role as a starting pitcher with the Kernels, calls for him to prepare to throw six or seven innings at a time, said he didn’t change his approach for the rare one-inning relief appearance.
     
    “I was just trying to do the same,” he said.
     
    West hitters managed just three hits off Eastern Division pitching on the night and perhaps could have used the bat of injured Kernels first baseman Trey Vavra, who made the trip to Peoria after being elected to start the game before going on the Kernels’ Disabled List with an ankle injury.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/KernelsAutoASG2015.jpg
    Kernels All-Stars work the pregame autograph ropeline at the 2015 MWL All-Star Game L-R: Jorge, Booser, Hildenberger, Wilson, Vavra. (Photo: SD Buhr)

    Vavra was happy to get the opportunity to participate in the All-Star festivities, but there was no chance he’d be able to play in the game.
     
    “I’m glad that the Twins gave me the opportunity to come here and hang out with everybody,” Vavra said before the game. “It’s great that they allowed me to do that.
     
    “My rehab’s come a long ways. I’m not going to be able to play in the game tonight. It’s unfortunate, but it’s kind of how it worked out.”
     
    Despite the progress with his rehabilitation, Vavra isn’t sure yet when he’ll be back in the Kernels’ lineup. He’s also not certain whether he’ll complete his rehab in Cedar Rapids or whether he’ll make a trip to the Twins’ facility in Fort Myers.
     
    “It’s kind of up to (the Twins) at this point. We’ve been doing some rehab for a long time. I’m progressing. I wouldn’t anticipate anything in the next week, but maybe the week after that.
     
    “I might go down there (to Fort Myers). I’ve heard both. Going down there to get some extended batting practice, but I’ve also heard that I’m staying up here and doing all that stuff up here, so I’ll just keep my head down and keep working.”
     
    With the All-Star break now in the rear-view mirror, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins didn’t make some roster adjustments and that could include promoting any of the four pitchers the Kernels sent to Peoria for the All-Star Game.
     
    Vavra, as well, played well enough while he was healthy to warrant consideration for a promotion, but it’s likely the organization would want to see him get more time in with the Kernels when he’s ready to resume his season.
     
    Hildenberger, however, indicated that they haven’t heard anything yet from the Twins about any possible promotions.
     
    On Wednesday, the Twins and Kernels announced that pitcher Brandon Bixler has been activated from the Disabled List and lefty starting pitcher Luke Westphal has joined the Kernels' active roster from Fort Myers. Bixler made 41 appearances for the Kernels in 2014, notching a 2.68 ERA out of the Cedar Rapids bullpen. Westphal has put up a 3.82 ERA in five starts and 11 relief appearances for the Miracle this season.
     
    The Kernels will begin the second half of the season on Thursday night against Quad Cities. The River Bandits were the champions of the league’s Western Division in the first half of the season
     
    P.S. This is where you watch the game from when you're late with your request for media credentials for the MWL All-Star Game. On the other hand, the weather was terrific and I would have missed this ballpark sunset if I'd been in the pressbox!
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/PeoriaDozerPark.jpg
  19. Steven Buhr
    Brett Doe didn’t make the trip north to Cedar Rapids out of spring training with his friends and teammates when they broke camp to start the 2015 season, a fact that was, “pretty disheartening,” Doe said in an interview over the past weekend.
     
    "When I first heard it, it was pretty tough," Doe admitted. "I played with most of these guys down in E’town and they’re definitely the guys that I wanted to spend the year playing with."
     
    Doe didn't allow himself to dwell long on that disheartened feeling though.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/DoeWatkins2015-600x400.jpg
    Brett Doe and hitting coach Tommy Watkins

    "A few hours kind of down on myself a little bit, doubting myself," he said. "But then I thought, ‘what good is being negative?’ Negativity only slows you down, holds you back."
     
    (This article originally was posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    Doe said he also got a bit of tough love from his buddies back home.
     
    "I talked to a lot of friends and they were saying, ‘hey, we don’t want to hear you complain, we’re going to our jobs right now and we’d give anything to be where you are right now.' So kind of taking that attitude kind of helped me once I got here because it’s something I can’t take for granted.
     
    "Being down there (in extended spring training) and knowing how anxious I was to get here and knowing that nothing is guaranteed. Even if I’m playing well and hitting well, it’s still a long season to go."
     
    Even going back in to spring training, Doe recognized that a guy selected as late as he was in the draft can't afford to relax in the effort department.
     
    "I was a 38th rounder during spring training. I would wake up and think, ‘I hope today is not the day they send me home. I don’t want to go back home.’ So I’d work hard every single day and, as cliché as that sounds, I’d work hard and have to go back and get in bed so tired after the day was over. Still, every day I've got to realize that nothing is guaranteed."
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Doe2015c-400x600.jpg
    Brett Doe

    A couple of weeks in to the season, Doe got the call to join the Kernels when Jorge Fernandez went on the Disabled List with a concussion.
     
    Since then, Doe has hit .318 and has stepped in to make a critical contribution to the Kernels’ offense during their successful drive to clinch at least a second-place finish in the Midwest League’s Western Division first-half standings and the guaranteed postseason berth that comes with it.
     
    “It’s been huge, to be honest with you,” Kernels manager Jake Mauer said of Doe’s contribution.
     
    “He just hadn’t gotten much of an opportunity early,” Mauer added. “Now he’s getting a chance and with his swing, how short it is and compact, it works, there’s no doubt about it. It’s just a matter of him getting an opportunity, really. He’s making the most of it.”
     
    He didn't exactly hit the ground running upon arrival in Cedar Rapids, though.
     
    "When I first got here, I started off a little slow. Not playing that much and when I got in, I got up there with the attitude that I've got to prove that I belong here. I think that if I’d have squared up some of those balls I swung at, they’d have gone about 500 feet," Doe recalled, laughing.
     
    Mauer and Kernels hitting coach Tommy Watkins had some conversations with Doe about that approach.
     
    "That’s not the type of player I am," he acknowledged. "It’s putting the ball in play, trying to find barrels and move guys and score guys. That’s the type of player I am and they helped remind me of that and that’s helped me out a lot."
     
    Doe was primarily an infielder during his junior college and college career, but the Twins are making a catcher out of him.
     
    The reason for the position change to squatting behind the plate was simple, according to Doe. Pro scouts spelled things out clearly to him during the scouting process.
     
    "I went to junior college and looked to get drafted out of there," Doe explained. "I was just a shortstop, and I’d show up places and run my 60-yard dashes and scouts would kind of hold their breath and kind of, ‘ohhh, not what we want.’ That had held me back."
     
    According to Doe, the scouts told him, "The only chance you may have is if you catch because you don’t have to run."
     
    "That was kind of what held me back from playing infield," Doe added. "Struggled swinging the bat a few years in college. ‘Can’t run well, streaky hitter, so we want you to catch a little bit.’"
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/LeBlancDoe-600x400.jpg
    Randy LeBlanc (15) and Brett Doe (23) pose during a Sunday postgame autograph session

    It took a bit of truth-stretching for Doe to get his first opportunity to get behind the plate during his junior year at Baylor, though.
     
    "A couple of our catchers went down with injuries so I kind of mentioned it, ‘yeah I caught in junior college,’ which wasn’t entirely truthful," Doe rather sheepishly admitted. "But I wanted to stay in the lineup. So I went back there and they said, ‘OK you’re catching this weekend.’
     
    "That started it. That was my junior year. I caught about 15-20 games there. Then senior year, I went back to shortstop once our other catchers got healthy. I didn’t start doing it full time until last year at E’town."
     
    While his future in professional baseball is likely going to be determined by how well he wears the "tools of ignorance," as we called catchers' gear in my day, the Kernels currently have four catchers on their roster. That means that Doe's defensive versatility allows his manager to keep his hot bat in the lineup and he's been playing a lot of first base for the Kernels recently.
     
    That's fine with Doe, because it's all about getting playing time. "Seeing my name in the lineup every day is really, really nice.
     
    "The background of being in the infield has helped me. I'm taking some ground balls at other positions in case some guys need breaks in the long season.
     
    "I’m more comfortable doing that than catching most of the time. Catching is still new to me. Now I’ve just got to figure out when I can get my catching work in and still be fresh and ready for games."
     
    Mauer thinks that Doe is handling his defensive responsibilities well, regardless of the position.
     
    "He’s done everything we’ve asked," said the manager. "He’s doing fine at first, a position he hasn’t played a lot.
     
    "He was an infielder who’s catching, so he’s probably a little bit more familiar with going back out in the infield. He’s done a nice job when he’s caught for us. It’s just another way to get him in the lineup. (Alex) Real has been swinging the bat real well, too, so we’re trying to get both of them in there."
     
    Asked about his goals for the year, Doe emphasized team goals.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/DoeAndParents-600x450.jpg
    Brett Doe and his parents show off his "Jurassic" jersey from a recent Kernels charity night

    "Of course, the big goal is to make the playoffs," he said. "I don’t really have any specific individual goals besides showing up every day and knowing that I did my best that day and just trying to help my team win."
     
    Three days after speaking those words, Doe and the Kernels locked in their playoff spot by clinching at least second place in their division for the first half of the season, so he and his teammates can check that goal off the list.
  20. Steven Buhr
    Going in to this weekend’s series against the Milwaukee Brewers, our Minnesota Twins are 11 games over .500, sitting atop the American League Central Division (barely) with a 32-21 record.
     
    Naturally, after the four year run of futility Twins fans have endured coming in to the current season, the main topic of conversation in the Twins community revolves around, “is this for real or are they going to crash and burn?”
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/MayST15a-600x400.jpg
    Trevor May (photo: SD Buhr)

    Being more than ten games over the break-even point a couple of months in to the season is rarified air for the Twins this decade. In fact, it’s relatively rare for any team to work their way more than ten games above .500 by June 4 in any recent year.
     
    When you look at the results for other teams that have managed to win ten more games than they’ve lost as of this date, you can find some cause for optimism – but you can also find a cautionary tale or two, as well.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
     
    A year ago, four teams found themselves on June 4 with records showing at least ten more wins than losses. Those teams were the Giants, Athletics, Brewers and Blue Jays.
     
    That’s not exactly encouraging news for Twins fans. Two of those teams, the Giants and A’s, hung on to claim wild card spots. The other two failed to make the postseason at all.
     
    In 2013, seven teams streaked out to early success in the first two months of the season. Boston, Texas, Oakland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all sat at least ten games over the .500 mark as of June 4.
     
    Four of those teams would ultimately claim Division championship banners, three scraped in to a wild card spot and one, the Rangers, failed to make the postseason (and even they did play a "game 163"). That’s obviously a more encouraging precedent for Twins fans to focus on than the 2014 season.
     
    Only the Dodgers had at least ten more wins than losses on June 4, 2012, and they fell short of postseason qualification.
     
    In 2011, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Cleveland were ten games over .500 on June 4. The Phillies won their division, the Cards were a wild card team and the Tribe were left on the outside looking in at playoff time.
     
    In 2010, the Rays, Yankees and Padres all were at least ten games above the .500 mark on this date. Tampa Bay won their division, the Evil Empire claimed the wild card and the Padres were left out. In fairness, however, if today’s two-wild card format had been in effect in 2010, San Diego would have qualified for the second National League wild card spot.
     
    (The Twins, in their final "good" season before the sucking years, were nine games over .500 on June 4, 2010.)
    Add all of that up and you get a pretty interesting – and even – mix of results for teams that were, on this date, in a situation similar to where the Twins find themselves today.
     
    Six of 18 teams won their division. Six of 18 claimed wild card spots. Six of 18 were left out in the cold.
     
    Of the six teams who failed to make the postseason after their early-season success, two of them did go on to win at least 90 games. The 2010 Padres won 90 and, as mentioned, would have claimed a second wild card spot had the format been the same as what’s in place today. The 2013 Rangers won 91 games and lost a “play-in” game to the Rays.
     
    The other four non-qualifiers ended up with 86 (2012 Dodgers), 83 (2014 Blue Jays), 82 (2014 Brewers) and 80 (2011 Indians) games.
     
    We all want to believe in the Twins success. We look at the potential to add a front line pitcher to the rotation in Ervin Santana and see possibilities of additional help from young players on the verge of making their big league debuts. We hope to see some guys improve to counter what’s likely to be some regression to the mean among other players.
     
    But, after four years of frustration, it’s hard for some of us to allow ourselves to become wholly emotionally invested in the Twins again, despite the surprisingly hot start.
     
    That said, coming in to the season most of us would have been more than pleased with an 81-81 Twins record at the end of 2015. Considering that only one of 18 teams in the past five years that accomplished what the Twins have accomplished so far failed to finish with at least 81 wins, it’s hard for me not to start getting pretty excited.
     
    Maybe – just maybe – that’s okay.
  21. Steven Buhr
    It may not be what casual baseball fans want to see, but in most cases and at most levels of professional baseball, the teams with the best pitching win the most games. Sometimes, it really is that simple.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/KernelsAutographs-600x400.jpg
    (L-R) Zack Larson, Stephen Gonsalves, Zach Granite and CK Irby sign autographs on the field after a Kernels game on April 26

    It arguably has been exactly that simple for the Cedar Rapids Kernels over the course of the first three weeks of their season.
     
    The Kernels are 11-7 on the year and sitting in a second place tie behind the Quad Cities River Bandits in the Midwest League’s Western Division standings. They open their first series with the Bandits on Tuesday in Davenport.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    Cedar Rapids’ offense has been, at best, a bit streaky. They sit at or near the middle of the MWL pack in most hitting categories, though they have managed to score the fourth-most runs in the league.
     
    But, through the weekend's games, Kernels pitchers lead the MWL in team ERA (2.27), strikeouts (187) and WHIP (1.09).
     
    When you see team numbers like those, obviously it’s not just one or two guys carrying the load.
     
    The Kernels are consistently getting quality work out of their starting rotation and their bullpen has been locking things down in the late innings.
     
    Manager Jake Mauer and pitching coach Henry Bonilla have primarily used six pitchers in their rotation, so far. Stephen Gonsalves, Mat Batts, Felix Jorge, Michael Cederoth, John Curtiss and Jared Wilson have accounted for all but two of Cedar Rapids’ starts this year.
     
    Zack Tillery has one spot start and Twins pitcher Ricky Nolasco started Sunday's game on a rehabilitation assignment.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Theofanopoulos2015b-600x400.jpg
    Michael Theofanopoulos

    Gonsalves, Batts and Jorge each have ERAs at 1.50 or better, with Gonsalves leading the team at 0.90.
     
    The success of Gonsalves and Batts is impressive, but not entirely unexpected. The two pitchers combined to make 13 starts for the Kernels last season and both were being counted on from the season's onset to make strong contributions again in 2015.
     
    Jorge’s success was far from a sure thing, however, at least in the minds of fans who only saw his work on the mound for Cedar Rapids early last year. In 2014, he put up a 2-5 record in 12 appearances (including eight starts) and amassed a 9.00 ERA before being sent back to Extended Spring Training by the Twins.
     
    Jorge turned his year around with a solid season at rookie-level Elizabethton, but nobody was quite certain what to expect from the 21-year-old righthander during his second shot in the Midwest League.
    “This was the Jorge we thought we were getting last year,” Mauer said recently. “It's a lot of things. Here it was freezing cold, he probably didn't get comfortable right away.
     
    "He's got a different look to him (this year). He's way more confident. He's worked really hard with Henry as far as his timing, when his hands break. he seems to be way more in rhythm than he was last year. If you can be way more in rhythm, you're going to throw a lot more strikes.”
     
    Bonilla, who was also Jorge's pitching coach in Elizabethton last year, is happy to see the improved version of the pitcher this season.
     
    “It's good to see him get some good games under him early, especially with the cold," Bonilla said over the weekend, of Jorge. "I think the cold kind of had him a little bit last year. But he's kind of taken responsibility for that and he's gone forward.
     
    "Ultimately, at the end of the year, you can hopefully start seeing his (velocity) get back to where it was when he was a young kid and his delivery get down in the zone a little bit. His breaking balls are coming along pretty good."
     
    Bonilla thinks Jorge was primarily throwing an 88-89 mph fastball a year ago, which is not what the Twins were expecting when they gave the then-17-year-old Domincan a $250,000 signing bonus in early 2011.
     
    "That's not really what he is. I think he's kind of getting back to it. We're doing some stuff mechanically. Hopefully, by the end of the season, we're talking more plan and location, instead of delivery, with him."
     
    Of course, the downside for Kernels fans to having pitchers get off to hot starts is that the fans may not get many more opportunities to watch those players in Cedar Rapids. They are all just a phone call away from a promotion to the class high-A Fort Myers Miracle.
     
    Batts, at 23 years old, might be a guy the Twins want to push up a level as soon as he appears ready and, between the end of last season and his start to the current campaign, the Twins could be getting close to wanting to see what he can do against more mature hitters.
     
    It may be likely that the parent club would want to see Jorge demonstrate more extended success in the Midwest League, given his false start at this level a year ago.
     
    Gonsalves doesn’t turn 21 until July, but his manager feels the Twins’ fourth round pick in 2013 has already shown just about enough to move up a level.
     
    “He’s getting close,” Mauer said recently, when asked if he thought Gonsalves might be ready for a promotion. “I’d like to see a little more shape on his breaking ball, but he's dominated the teams that he's thrown against. If he gets a breaking ball, he's going to be really dangerous. Really, really dangerous.”
     
    Gonsalves' velocity on his fastball has ticked upward this season but his manager doesn't think he's topped out yet.
     
    "I think it's going to even get better. As he keeps maturing, I think he's going to be a 94-95 (mph) guy. I really do. When he gets his 'man-muscles,' as they say. I think he's really going to bring it.
     
    "He's thrown some better this year. Some breaking balls have had some shape, compared to last year. He gets bigger and stronger, that ball will have even more shape. He's got a good change up. But I think he's going to run it up there pretty good."
     
    The bullpen could be ripe for plucking by the Miracle, as well, if the need arises.
     
    It's a bullpen that even their manager had expressed some nervousness about at the onset of the season.
     
    “We didn't know who was going to step up," Mauer recalled over the weekend, ”and they've been outstanding. Really, really good.”
     
    The nine pitchers who have made relief appearances for the Kernels have put up a combined 1.92 ERA out of the pen.
     
    Relievers Cameron Booser (1.13), Trevor Hildenberger (1.00) and Michael Theofanopoulos (1.74) are each sporting sub-2.00 ERAs for the Kernels.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Tillery15a-600x400.jpg
    Zack Tillery

    This crew has brought some heat in April.
     
    The only full-time reliever who hasn’t averaged a strikeout per inning is newcomer Miles Nordgren, who has made just two appearances since joining the Kernels as the replacement for Curtiss, who went on the disabled list with a concussion. And, while Nordgren hasn’t been a strikeout machine in those two appearances, he also hasn’t given up a run.
     
    In that regard, he joins Tillery and Wilson, neither of which have surrendered an earned run in their relief appearances.
     
    Bonilla is glad to see his staff get off to a good start, before the hitters start to catch up to them.
     
    “They're taking advantage of the cold and that's a good thing," the pitching coach explained, "because once it gets warm, the bats get hot, too. Those guys want to swing the lumber. It's good numbers-wise. It's a confidence boost a little bit."
     
    But Bonilla believes the hot start for his pitching corps is important for reasons that go beyond the obvious results on the field. He believes that early success also aids individual development.
     
    "There's some things each guy is working on - his own individual plan and the goals we have for him," he explained. "It's good to get off to a fast start because it builds confidence in the season and they're more open to do things that maybe they werent - that they're reluctant to do when they're struggling.
     
    "When you're struggling, you want to get back to what you're comfortable with. So we can maybe add a few things like maybe sink the ball a little bit more to certain guys - working on breaking balls. They're a lot more open, when you're having success, to do things. When you're struggling, you're just grinding away.”
     
    If the Kernels can keep most of this pitching staff intact and the bats in the lineup can heat up as the weather warms up, Cedar Rapids could be a serious Midwest League contender in 2015.
  22. Steven Buhr
    It’s pretty hard to imagine this baseball season getting off to a better start, isn’t it? I mean, even the most optimistic of us probably wouldn’t have predicted a .789 winning percentage through the first week of games! This looks like it could be a fun summer of baseball!
     
    What’s that? You say the Twins are languishing with a 1-6 record? Who cares? I’m talking about their full-season minor league affiliates! That’s where the action (and literally ALL of the fun) is!
     
    The AAA Rochester Red Wings are 3-1.
     
    The newest Twins affiliate, the AA-level Chattanooga Lookouts (with arguably one of the most loaded rosters in all of minor league baseball) are sitting at 4-1.
     
    The Class A Advanced Fort Myers Miracle are 3-2 (pending the outcome of their Tuesday game – what’s up with these morning start times, anyway?).
     
    And last, but certainly not least, the Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels are still on pace to be a perfect 140-0 at the end of the year after winning their first five games of the season.
     
    That means that the four minor league affiliates, combined, are 15-4 through Monday night and have lost two fewer games than the Twins have managed to drop all by themselves.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/batteredball.jpg
    Does this represent the Twins' pitching woes or their farm clubs' hitting prowess? Take your pick.

    Of course, it’s early. You don’t want to read too much in to the small sample size of a week’s worth of games. After all, will even the Twins continue losing at their current pace to finish the year with a 27-135 record? Of course they won’t. Well – probably not, anyway.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
     
    But while those of you who insist on following only the big leaguers continue to wonder why you’re paying big league prices to watch what even Torii Hunter has admitted to essentially being “Bad News Bears” baseball, here’s a small sample of what you’ve been missing on the farm:
    The Red Wings have three guys, all deemed by Twins management to be unworthy of a spot with the Twins, with an OPS over 1.000. Two of them, Danny Ortiz and Aaron Hicks, would likely improve the Twins’ outfield defense if they weren’t wearing Rochester uniforms. The third, Josmil Pinto, probably deserves an entire post dedicated to discussing why he should or shouldn’t be in Minnesota.
    The consensus top two Twins prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, both are in the Lookouts’ everyday lineup, so it’s not surprising that Chattanooga also has three guys with above-1.000 OPS numbers. Then again, none of those three guys are named Buxton or Sano. Stephen Wickens, DJ Hicks and Travis Harrison are bringing the lumber, so far, for the Lookouts. They aren’t the only productive hitters, however. That lineup is stacked, as expected. Their TEAM OPS is .829. Oh, and their pitchers are striking out almost 1.3 batters per inning, too.
    Niko Goodrum is a .400 hitter, going in to Tuesday’s game, for the Miracle, who also had two starting pitchers, Aaron Slegers and Ryan Eades, who each tossed six shutout innings in their initial starts of the season.
    No less than five Kernels hitters have put up 1.000+ OPS numbers through the first five games. As a TEAM, the Kernels have put up a .316/.380/.471 (.851 OPS) slash line. That Midwest League-leading team batting average is a full 47 points over the next highest team in the league. Not to be outdone, the pitching staff has put up a 1.80 ERA, so far, and have struck out 57 batters in a combined 45 innings of work.

    Conversely, the Twins have put up a team OPS of .530 on the season, which is the worst in Major League Baseball. Their team ERA is 6.52, which is also dead last among the 30 big league teams. Not coincidentally, their 35 staff strikeouts is also good for dead last.
     
    All of this might be more understandable if the Twins had made clear that, for the good of the franchise, they were going to punt on 2015 - that the plan would be to plug journeymen “replacement level” players in to fill every perceived gap in their big league roster, in order to give their much-heralded minor league prospects more time to become adequately seasoned on the farm.
     
    But that’s not what they did. Every public comment from everyone in the organization from the end of 2014’s fourth consecutive 90+ loss season through the final days of spring training expressed the company line that they were expecting significant improvement this season.
     
    That's not really surprising. Twins fans generally hear that refrain every offseason.
     
    The truth is that the Twins have been hoping that fans would be patient, because there really is a ton of young talent approaching the Major League team's doorstep. From the sounds coming from Target Field on Monday, it seems that 'patient' is not exactly what much of the fan base is feeling.
     
    I don't think it had to be this way.
     
    Back in early October, I wrote that I thought it was time for the Twins to adjust their model, when it comes to promoting their prospects. I suggested that, despite both guys losing virtually their entire seasons a year ago to injury, the Twins should consider simply promoting Buxton and Sano and letting them learn their craft on the big stage.
     
    I argued that, yes they would struggle, but they’re likely to struggle a while whenever they are finally promoted and both young men have demonstrated that they learn, adapt and, ultimately, dominate, very quickly as each new challenge is presented.
     
    I also argued for either signing one of the top free agent starting pitchers or simply getting Alex Meyer and Trevor May in to the rotation from the start and setting up Jose Berrios for a debut not too deep in to the season.
     
    I didn’t discuss the bullpen, at the time, but if I’d known what the Opening Day bullpen was going to look like, I’d have argued pretty forcefully for an immediate youth movement there, too.
     
    Instead, the Twins have assembled a cast at the big league level that deflated and discouraged its fan base (warm welcome-home ovation for Torii Hunter, notwithstanding) virtually before the Home Opener was finished.
     
    The future does look bright. There is an embarrassment of riches in terms of baseball talent in the Twins organization.
     
    Unfortunately, the Twins have decided that you won’t see a lot of it at Target Field for a while.
     
    That’s bad news for fans in Minnesota, but Twins fans in New York, Florida, Tennessee and Iowa look to be in for a lot of fun this summer.
  23. Steven Buhr
    With Thursday night's announcement that Chris Herrmann would be heading north with the Minnesota Twins, their opening day roster appears to be set. The back up catcher spot was the final unresolved question of the spring.
     
    A lot is made of the make up of the Twins' roster as they open the 2015 season, but it really is of just mild interest to me, personally.
     
    Yes, I like to see a guy like Herrmann rewarded for his hard work and persistence and JR Graham's story as a Rule 5 pick up earning a spot in the bullpen is compelling.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/HerrmannST15-600x400.jpg
    Chris Herrmann (photo: SD Buhr)

    But I'm a lot more curious, already, as to what the Twins roster will look like come mid to late July than I am concerning what it looks like when they travel to Detroit to open the season. And I suspect there will be at least a 33% turnover in the roster by the end of July.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    That would be eight or nine spots on the 25-man roster that would be held down by someone not making the trip north out of spring training with the Twins - and I think that sounds about right. In fact, I could see the turnover being more than that.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GrahamST15-600x400.jpg
    JR Graham (photo: SD Buhr)

    I'm not making that prediction based purely on an expectation that the Twins will be clearly en route to a fifth straight 90+ loss season and find themselves in sell-off mode. In fact, I'm probably more optimistic about the Twins' chances of remaining competitive beyond the All-Star break than I've been in a couple of years.
     
    I think that, if they stay healthy, this line up will score plenty of runs and I think a lot of people are underestimating how improved the starting rotation may be with the addition of Ervin Santana and a healthier Ricky Nolasco.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/MayST15a-600x400.jpg
    Trevor May (photo: SD Buhr)

    My belief in the likelihood of significant turnover comes not so much from a lack of confidence in the team as initially constituted (though I do worry about that bullpen), but from a sense that there are simply so many talented young players at the higher levels of the organization minor leagues that are almost certain to force their way on to the Twins roster by mid-season.
     
    To start with, if Josmil Pinto is healthy and still in the Twins organization, I have little doubt he'll be wearing a Twins uniform by July.
     
    Beyond that, does anyone not believe that Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed will be pitching for the Twins by mid-year if they come out of the gate strong in their respective minor league assignments? Those are four pitchers that you could make an argument for putting on the roster right now. You might even be tempted to put Jose Berrios on that list, though I suspect he may be held down on the farm at least until later in the season.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/BerriosOliva-600x400.jpg
    Jose Berrios and Tony Oliva (photo: SD Buhr)

    Even if any/all of those arms fail to impress during the season's first half, that doesn't mean that all of the arms that are making up the Twins' opening day pitching staff are likely to have performed well enough to keep their jobs. This pitching staff (especially among the relief corps), as initially constituted, is simply not strong enough to avoid the need for a significant make-over, whether via promotions or trades (or, perhaps most likely, some combination thereof).
     
    And we haven't even mentioned the organization's consensus top pair of prospects, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. If they manage to shake off the rust that resulted from lost seasons a summer ago (and which clearly still existed during spring training), I expect they will both be Minnesota Twins by mid season. They could easily be joined by Eddie Rosario and, of course, nobody would be at all surprised to see Aaron Hicks rejoin the big league club.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SanoST15-600x400.jpg
    Miguel Sano (photo: SD Buhr)

    In addition to the prospects that have become familiar to much of the Twins' fan base, the AA Chattanooga Lookouts' everyday line up is going to be literally full of players that are only a hot start and the ability to play a defensive position of need away from being called up.
     
    What it all means is that the Twins roster in July, August and September should include far more players that are likely to be part of the next generation of Twins capable of contending for future postseasons than the roster we are discussing in April.
     
    It's not easy being patient, but most of these young players will benefit from getting a little more minor league seasoning. The good news is that we are no longer talking about it being several years before we see these promising prospects at Target Field, but, hopefully, merely several weeks.
  24. Steven Buhr
    Almost exactly 11 months ago, Mitch Garver arrived in Cedar Rapids to get started on his first full season of professional baseball in the Minnesota Twins organization. This spring, he’s a big league catcher – for now, anyway.
     
    Garver, the Twins’ ninth round draft choice in 2013 out of New Mexico, spent all of last season with the Cedar Rapids Kernels, not only playing a leadership role behind the plate but at the plate, as well. He hit .298, led Cedar Rapids with 79 RBI and was voted the Midwest League’s post-season all-star catcher.
     
    Garver reported to the Twins’ spring training facility in Fort Myers, Florida, with the other Twins major league pitchers and catchers in February and he’s been putting on a big league uniform every day since.
     
    (This article was originally published at Knuckelballsblog.com.)
     
    Major League teams invite a limited number of their minor league catchers to big league camp every spring in order to have enough catchers to handle catching duties for all of the pitchers that need to work out their kinks during the first four weeks or so of spring training and Garver got one of those coveted invitations to big league camp this year. (Tyler Grimes, who caught for the 2013 Kernels, also is getting a taste of big league life with the Twins this spring.)
     
    On Friday, Garver talked about his experience this spring in the Minnesota Twins’ major league camp.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Mitch-Garver.jpeg
    Mitch Garver (photo: Minnesota Twins)

    After Garver and the Kernels wrapped up their 2014 season back in September, he spent a little time in Minnesota and Florida getting checked out physically, including a CT scan due to late season concussion issues.
     
    “No issues there, everything came back clean,” Garver assured. “It was just an experience for me to make sure everything was OK. I got to see Target Field and everything around there. They wanted to make sure I was healthy enough to go back to Albuquerque to work out, so I was in (fall instructional league in Fort Myers) for a month to kind of iron some things out.”
     
    Garver split the next couple of months between time with his fiancé in Corvallis, Oregon, and with his family in New Mexico.
     
    It was while in New Mexico that he woke up one morning, about a week before Christmas, to find he had a missed call on his phone.
     
    “It was at like eight or nine in the morning and I didn’t know what the number was,” Garver recalled. “So I called it back.”
     
    It was a good decision. The call turned out to have been from Twins General Manager Terry Ryan.
     
    “He asked me how my health was and made sure everything was good with my hips and with my brain and everything. I told him I was doing great, having a great offseason. Then he invited me to spring training.” That’s major league spring training, with the big league Twins.
     
    “It was really exciting. Very cool,” added Garver.
     
    Garver has been in camp since February 20 and, as you might expect, walking in to a big league clubhouse as a player for the first time was special.
     
    “It’s very different because you walk in and you find your locker and you turn around and there’s five clubhouse guys behind you. Five clubbies, asking you if there’s anything you need, anything they can do for you at that moment in time. You’re just being bombarded with love, it seems like. It’s a cool experience. It’s just fun to be here.”
     
    He’s not just there for the cool experience, of course. Garver is there to work. He’s rooming with fellow Twins catching prospect Stuart Turner at the new baseball academy that the Twins have built on-site at their complex in Fort Myers.and, according to Garver, their days get off to a pretty early start.
     
    “I wake up at 6:30, we leave the academy about 6:40 and get over to the field. I like to get there a little bit early. They have breakfast for us over there in the new, renovated locker room and kitchen. And the weight room is right there as well. Sometimes you work out in the morning, sometimes you go hit in the morning or you do both.
     
    “And then team meetings around 9:00. After that, we head out to different fields and do PFPs (pitchers’ fielding practice), bullpens, live batting practice, baserunning, bunt defense. There’s a defensive station every day. So either we’re catching bullpens or we’re doing something catching-related. For that particular day, it could be blocking or the next day it could be catching pop flies or anything like that. But most of the time, it’s bullpens and we get all of our work in during the bullpens.
     
    “When it’s all said and done, it’s probably around 1:00 or 2:00 in the afternoon and you go have lunch and then you call it a day.”
     
    The time Garver and other young players get on the field with major league players and coaching staff is valuable, of course, but it’s not the only aspect his first big league spring training that Garver is taking advantage of.
     
    “It’s nice to get to know these guys (the major leaguers). You kind of want to get associated with them and learn what kind of people they are off the field, because you already know what they can do on the field. It’s fun to talk with them and converse about different things, finding out where people are from and all of these different stories they have, baseball related or not.
     
    “Torii Hunter has some really different stories about everything. It’s fun to listen to him talk. It’s just a good experience overall.”
     
    The experience also has made Garver even more aware of just how close he could be to realizing his dreams of being a major league ballplayer.
     
    “It’s surreal. You’re playing with superstars and if you put it in perspective, you’re not that far off,” Garver observed. “Just a hop, skip and a jump away from being in the big leagues, whatever level you’re at.”
     
    Garver got his first taste of big league game experience on Thursday night, as a pinch hitter, in the Twins first spring training game. It was memorable on multiple levels for Garver.
     
    “I was sitting in the dugout (Thursday) night and we were playing the Boston Red Sox. People that I’ve only ever seen on TV, or only ever imagined playing against are in the other dugout,” he recounted.
     
    “And in the other dugout is one of my best friends from Albuquerque, Blake Swihart. He’s one of the best catching prospects in the game and it’s just surreal seeing him over there. Then he’s catching when I’m batting and I’m facing a big leaguer (Boston reliever Matt Barnes). It’s kind of weird to think about it, but it’s right there in front of me. I’ve just gotta go get it.”
     
    As exciting as the experience has been and continues to be, Garver is realistic and knows his time in the major league clubhouse is going to come to an end (for this season, anyway) shortly.
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Garver2014b.jpg
    Mitch Garver as a Kernel

    Minor leaguers begin reporting to spring training in a few days and eventually Garver will be joining them at the minor league complex across the parking lot from the Twins’ big league facility.
     
    Garver is OK with that.
     
    “Yeah, it’s coming. I know it is. Everybody knows it is. I think the 15th will be our last day and the 16th is the day we’re sent back.
     
    “But you know what, that’s fine with me,” said Garver, in a tone of voice that certainly sounded genuine.
     
    “I’ve come, I’ve seen, I’ve learned a lot of things thus far. And I think being sent down to the minor leagues is going to be a good thing because I’ll get to play every day. I can prepare myself for the season, as opposed to helping major leaguers prepare for their season, because I’m just kind of helping out right now.”
     
    Asked whether he’d like to add a couple of points to his batting average in 2015, to get it up to the magic .300 mark, Garver laughed and said that was, indeed, one his goals. But then that’s not new.
     
    “I want to hit .300, I want to make the All-Star team and I want to have the most RBIs on the team. There you go. Those are my goals. The same as last year and the year before.”
  25. Steven Buhr
    A couple days ago, I posted several videos I shot at the Arizona Fall League games I attended last week. Today, you get still pictures. I wish I had had an opportunity to get more pictures of Jones, Adam and Rogers, but I only saw Jones pitch once and chose to shoot a video rather than try to get pictures through the netting, Adam didn't pitch at all in the games I saw and Rogers, of course, is injured and did not pitch.

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Salt-River-Field-2.jpg
    Salt River Field - Home of the Rafters and the D'Backs/Rockies spring training site

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Salt-River-Field-BattersEye-2.jpg
    Salt River Field Batters Eye - Wonder if the hitters complain about it like the trees at Target Field

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rosario3.jpg
    Eddie Rosario

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/JakeReed1.png
    Jake Reed

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Kepler2.jpg
    Max Kepler

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Rogers1a.jpg
    Taylor Rogers

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/AdamJonesRogers.jpg
    (L to R) In the bullpen, Jason Adam, Zack Jones, Taylor Rogers

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rosario9.jpg
    Eddie Rosario

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Kepler6.jpg
    Max Kepler

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Reed12.jpg
    Jake Reed

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rosario7-400x600.jpg
    Eddie Rosario

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/KeplerDarinEverson.jpg
    Max Kepler and base coach Darin Everson (Rockies)

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Reed10.jpg
    Jake Reed

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rosario8.jpg
    Eddie Rosario

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Kepler3.jpg
    Max Kepler diving back in to first base on an attempted pick off

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ReedAutograph1.jpg
    Jake Reed signing autographs

    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/KeplerAutograph3.jpg
    Max Kepler signing autographs

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