Ted Schwerzler

The Minnesota Twins recently announced that 2015 6th overall pick Tyler Jay was headed to the bullpen full time. While that obviously saps the value from the pick, it's a clear indication that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are all for positioning their young talent to produce the best possible return on the most ideal timeline. Given the state of the Twins, the organization actually has a lot of boxes checked off thanks to that young talent. With Jay entering the fold, Minnesota now has a group of pen arms that could take what has been a poor relief corps, to the top in pretty short order. Building a stable of relief options that include Jay, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers is a pretty great scenario to be in. Given the reality that all of them are in the cards for the 2017 season, their impact can be felt in relatively short order. Then, moving to the offensive side of things, the new braintrust can look at a lineup littered with relatively young and projectable talent. The group consists of a former top prospect in Byron Buxton, a hulking slugger in Miguel Sano, a solid do-everything type in Max Kepler, and a bunch of other talent in the form of Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, ByungHo Park, Jason Castro and Eddie Rosario. Sure, it still remains to be seen whether or not Polanco and Dozier can realistically coexist, but trading the latter almost certainly brings another nice piece into the fold. From this perspective, it's pretty easy to see that the Twins have a strong foundation when it comes to both their offensive firepower and the relief corps. Sure, not all of them are in their prime, and there's a handful of development still to take place. What's a pretty safe bet however, is that the intersection of peak performance should be relatively similar among the entire group. That brings us to the elephant in the room, and it's a big one. Tell me if you've heard this before, a big league club needs starting pitching. On that front, the Twins really only have Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Kyle Gibson. It's probably fair to reason that Fernando Romero could factor into the big league rotation within the next two seasons, and Stephen Gonsalves certainly looks like an MLB arm. If there's something this group is lacking, it's definitely void of a sure thing. Given a relatively solidified bullpen and offense, splurging on an ace, or number two starting pitcher should be in the cards for the Twins. Whether scouring the free agent market as money is plentiful over the next two offseasons, or dealing from a position of wealth in order to recoup that top arm, Minnesota must commit to grabbing two pitchers. In the season ahead, the development of the youth explained above will be nearly as intriguing of a storyline as the results themselves. If the breakouts come from the pen, and the offense sees it's youth round into the solid everyday types it should be littered with, then Falvey and Levine can absolutely envision a 25 man that's not too far away. Given the state of the AL Central, that's a really promising notion. It's always going to be a pretty big ask to suggest a big league team go and get top tier pitching. If there's a club positioned well to overextended, or at least pull out all of the stops, it might be the Minnesota Twins. With two third of the roster categories complete thanks to internal help, looking at the best external options to complete the third is a very realistic possibility. Regardless of how 2017 finishes for the Twins, a strong development arc could put them a pitcher or two away from being something really special for quite some time. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Aaron Gleeman has noted this multiple times. Ryan is often credited for the strong run in the early 2000s, but often its overlooked how mediocre his teams were. His tenure wasn't much more than .500, and he rarely did anything incredibly well. Ryan is a good scout at his core, but leading a front office, that wasn't his forte.

Recently, Twins Daily reported that the Minnesota Twins have pulled the plug on turning 2016 6th overall raft pick Tyler Jay, into a starter. It's an unfortunate outcome that makes the pick look much worse off than what it was originally perceived, but at this point it's also representative of what was, and what is now. As the rest of Jay's narrative plays out, he'll be looked at through at a very unique lens. When selected 6th overall in the 2015 draft, there was plenty of concern over the pick immediately. Jay was a college reliever for the University of Illinois, and starting had never been something he'd done. His stuff was electric, and he was viewed as a potential quick riser as a reliever, but the peripherals really didn't suggest he could start. Then there was the reality that in selecting Jay, Minnesota declined to draft Andrew benintendi, Carson Fulmer, Ian Happ, James Kaprielian, or Walker Buehler. The list of those they past on, is simply much more impressive than the guy they took at this point. Making the commitment to use Jay as a reliever full time, the Twins new regime has noted they are playing with house money. It was Terry Ryan as General Manager when Jay was selected, and it was his vision that he could be cast as a starter. Instead of sharing in that belief (and one that hadn't produced great results), both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine saw a way to get value, and in a more immediate fashion. There's always been a pretty solid belief that Tyler Jay can be a good big league reliever. He was a closer in college, and his fastball and slider combination has seemed deadly out of the pen. Over his final 12 games in relief during the 2015 season, Jay worked 11.2 IP and owned a 1.54 ERA in which he allowed opposing hitters just a .505 OPS. During his pro debut being used solely in relief, Jay generated 10.8 K/9. No matter how good of a reliever Jay becomes though, he almost certainly will never be able to justify the mistake that Terry Ryan made. That's something that Falvey and Levine have seemingly come to grips with, and decided it wasn't their problem. In using Jay as a reliever, he can more quickly help the Twins pen, and should be an option as early as midway through the 2017 season. Although the Twins have strong relief arms in the form of Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, and J.T. Chargois, none of them were first round selections. Looking at elite bullpen arms such as Zach Britton and Andrew Miller, you find two failed big league starters that both began nearly 50 games at the highest level. Both became full time relievers at their age 26 and 27 seasons respectively, and it seems Minnesota is going to get a jumpstart on their guy. Right now, Tyler Jay is just nearing his 23rd birthday. He's got a very realistic chance to debut in the big leagues not long after, and he could quickly find himself pitching in high leverage situations. Sure, that's not the result anyone wanted from that high of a pick, but the new regime has been given the keys to a solid bet on a fix for the pen, and they're turning the ignition over on him. My guess would be that Jay pitches at Double-A Chattanooga to start the year, with a brief cameo in Rochester prior to his debut. I don't know that he'll beat Jake Reed to the big leagues, but given Nick Burdi's lost 2016, Jay could overtake him. At any rate, the Twins getting an influx of arms like Reed, Jay, Burdi, and Mason Melotakis in relief this season is a very good thing. Tyler Jay wasn't a pick made by the current regime, and it's very likely he isn't the guy they would've wanted. Instead of committing to slow process with a high washout rate until he's about 26, Minnesota is cashing in now. Jay won't have to be the failed starter going to some other team and latching on as a strong reliever, he can do that for his new bosses. There's a pretty good blueprint for a lefty that owns a good slider and fastball combination, and he also happened to be the 6th overall pick. His name, the aforementioned Andrew Miller. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Glad you asked, was the subject of my piece earlier this week: http://offthebaggy.blogspot.com/2017/03/twins-in-for-overhaul.html?m=1

With just a couple of weeks left of baseball down in Fort Myers, the Twins are gearing up quickly for the beginning of the 2017 Major League Baseball season. In what should be a much more competitive season, Paul Molitor's club is looking to put their best foot forward. It's been nearly two months since I last looked at the 25 Minnesota will take north two months ago, and an update is more than overdue. Although there hasn't been a ton of shuffling, the Twins have been dealt a significant injury blow, as well as having played more than a handful of games. Looking at the landscape right now, here's how I see it playing out: Rotation (5) Ervin Santana Phil Hughes Kyle Gibson Hector Santiago Adalberto Mejia The only change here is that Trevor May is obviously no longer a candidate. I think he had the inside track, but with a torn UCL, he's definitely out of the picture. The Twins could go Ryan Vogelsong for the final spot, but that'd be settling in the most disappointing way possible. Jose Berrios could also factor in, as he's got a higher upside the Mejia. Thus far though, Mejia has been sharp this spring, gives Minnesota another lefty, and has the staying power to remain in the rotation for the long haul. Starting Lineup (9) Jason Castro C Joe Mauer 1B Brian Dozier 2B Jorge Polanco SS Miguel Sano 3B Eddie Rosario LF Byron Buxton CF Max Kepler RF ByungHo Park DH There wasn't ever going to be much change among the starters, they'd been cemented nearly from the get go. The switch here comes in the form of the designated hitter. Initially I had Park pegged, and felt the need to switch things around when he was removed from the 40 man roster. The reality is he's a superior player in comparison to Kennys Vargas, and he's looked as much this spring. Park is fully healthy with his wrist surgically repaired. He's now more acclimated to the culture of Major League Baseball, as well as undoubtedly feeling more comfortable in a new country. He's looked relaxed at the plate, has chased less, and connected more. Expecting a breakout year from ByungHo is far from a stretch. Bench (4) Eduardo Escobar Robbie Grossman Ehire Adrianza Chris Gimenez The only way for Grossman to be unseated would be if the Twins decided they need more of a defensive presence in the outfield off of the bench. In that scenario, Drew Stubbs could get some consideration. Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianza don't pair particularly well, in that they both play the same set of positions, but the former has a bit better bat while the latter plays incredible defense. Behind the dish, it's become apparent that Chris Gimenez is going to be Jason Castro's backup. He has a level of familiarity with Derek Falvey and Thad Levine having played for both of their previous organizations. He's a strong veteran, and while he may not do anything exceptionally well, he's more than capable as a big leaguer. I'd still bet on Mitch Garver being the next man up however, even ahead of John Ryan Murphy. Bullpen (7) Brandon Kintzler Closer Ryan Pressly Setup J.T. Chargois Matt Belisle Justin Haley Craig Breslow Taylor Rogers As it stands in this piece, the pen has seen a pretty significant shakeup from the former roster projection. Kintzler and Pressly remain status quo at the back, but from there, things get interesting. Matt Belisle was brought in on a major league deal and is going to have a role, while I also believe the Twins will keep Rule 5 pick Justin Haley in long relief. At some point, J.T. Chargois could go from middle relief to high leverage, and it's a role he seems really well suited for. Then the Twins give themselves some real flexibility in having two capable lefties. Craig Breslow has reinvented himself, and looked very strong this spring. Pairing him with the youth of Taylor Rogers could be a great developmental tool as well, and both southpaws can get batters out from both sides of the plate. We're not too far removed from Spring Training coming to a conclusion, and as we draw ever more near to that point, the Twins will continue to make cuts and provide more clarity. I feel good about this collection of players, and think Minnesota will have an immediate boost in the win column because of them. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Literally their only reason to fall back on would be that Mejia and Berrios have options. Mejia has only pitched for a short time in the Twins org, so they may want to see more of him there first. It'd be an absolute cop out, but I'd assume that's what they would suggest.

The more I hear beat guys talk of the possibility he makes it, the more frustrated I get. He's been outpitched by Mejia significantly, and has nothing to offer over Berrios. The last solid season he put forth was 2012. If you want to keep him as insurance at AAA, maybe fine. Even there though, he blocks much more talented arms.

Agree with this, but didn't write about the infield in the piece. Sano will be ok, but Polanco is going to be an issue. When Grossman is in LF, the whole LF is going to be a problem. The trio of OF'ers mentioned though will be very, very good when out there.

With just a couple of weeks left until Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins will be whittling down their players in camp and aligning the 40 man. What that means for a team with no spots left on the 40 man roster, is a handful of hard decisions lie ahead. The interesting bit for the new regime, is that it appears there are more moves than initially were to be expected. Although the active 25 man roster can remain in flux through the first few weeks, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to make decisions on who they want to hang onto. With so many new faces coming into the picture, there's going to be some holdovers that find themselves out of luck. Shuffling the 40 man and sending guys to the minors, or looking for a different organization, is never an easy or fun task. From where I'm standing though, it seems there's plenty of work ahead. First, let's take a look at the guys likely needing a spot: Craig Breslow- RP When the Twins signed Breslow this offseason, much was made about how he had reinvented his arm angle and pitching philosophy. Taking an analytical approach, Breslow broke down his mechanics and remade himself to suit his current ability. He's looked plenty capable this spring, and gives Minnesota a solid lefty presence in relief. Chance he makes the club: 85% Ryan Vogelsong- SP Vogelsong hasn't been great this spring, and he's been largely mediocre since 2012. However, with Trevor May going down, I could definitely see the Twins going the easy or safe route with the 5th starter. Both Adalebrto Mejia and Jose Berrios still have options, and given the usage needed from a 5th starter, Vogelsong wouldn't have to take the ball incredibly often. Should Minnesota go this route, I'd look at it as settling, and really, an unnecessary 40 man move. However, reports are beginning to suggest it looks likely, and he'll need to be accommodated. Chance he make the club: 80% Chris Gimenez- C Despite how good Mitch Gavrer has shown this spring, the reality is that there's a big jump from Double to Triple-A, and even further to the big leagues. Gimenez seems locked in now as the backup catcher, and his familiarity with both Falvey and Levine from previous organizations helps. He's a solid veteran presence, and has been on some really good ballclubs. He doesn't do anything incredibly well, but he's a serviceable backup to Jason Castro and allows the Twins time to wait on Garver to develop. Chance he makes the club: 95% ByungHo Park- DH Before spring training started, Park was jettisoned from the 40 man. He went unclaimed on waivers and was brought into camp still competing for a DH job with Kennys Vargas. I have wondered if Vargas wasn't given this move as a vote of confidence that he was the lone 40 man DH, but he's done little with it. Park has looked solid at the plate this swing, both with the approach (6/4 K/BB) and the results. On top of that, he's the better fielding first basemen, and really gives the Twins a higher ceiling bat. I don't see Vargas as much more than a bench bat long term and think Park has earned his way back in. Chance he makes the club: 60% Drew Stubbs- OF Stubbs inclusion is an interesting one, because it largely depends on how the Twins view Robbie Grossman. They are both solid OBP guys, but it's Stubbs who swings and misses (and has been ineffective in general) much more often. The one dynamic playing to Stubbs' strength is his ability to play all three outfield spots. Grossman is a corner guy only, and average at best. If the Twins want to have a more dynamic fourth outfielder, they could decide to go this way. However, teams shouldn't be beating down Stubbs' door, so Minnesota could likely hold him at Triple-A as well. Chance he makes the club: 10% With this construction, we have at least four guys needing 40 man spots, with a potential fifth. Right now the Twins find their 40 man at capacity, so what gives? Trevor May- P This is the easiest move for the Twins to make to clear a 40 man spot. May is done for the year after suffering a torn UCL. He'll likely need Tommy John surgery, and it's a certainty he's placed on the 60 day DL. Removed from 40 man: 100% Buddy Boshers- RP Including Boshers here isn't a slight to him, but more of a roster crunch. Assuming Breslow makes the club, the Twins are going to carry a max of one more lefty reliever. That leaves the group of Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke, and Boshers vying for that spot. The first won't be removed from the 40 man, and both Boshers and O'Rourke could find themselves out in the cold. Removed from 40 man: 50% Ryan O'Rourke- RP First, see above. Then realize O'Rourke is a dominant LOOGY but is rarely used solely in that instance, and is 28. He's been passed through waivers before, and likely would go unclaimed again. Regardless, I think it's a coin flip as to what happens between him and Boshers, with the slight edge going to Buddy. Removed from 40 man: 51% Glen Perkins- RP At this point, Perkins presents an interesting case. He's on the path to recovery, but his exact timetable for return remain a mystery. He needed his labrum literally reattached to the bone, and I doubt his overall effectiveness going forward. For the time being though, Minnesota could open up a 40 man spot by stashing him on the 60 day DL. Removed from 40 man: 25% Michael Tonkin- RP Out of options, and probably on the outside of the pen looking in, Tonkin could find himself looking for a new team. He was improperly used in 2015, and then did little with his opportunities a year ago. With Rule 5 pick Justin Haley in the fold, as well as newly signed Matt Belisle, there's maybe not enough room in the Twins relief corps to accommodate Tonkin. He could clear waivers, but I don't think the Twins view him as must keep material. Removed from 40 man: 60% Danny Santana- Util This spring, Santana has been used all over the place, and he's played quite a bit. I'm starting to try and convince myself he's being used as the guy who gets breaks in for teammates. At this point, he's a utility man that can't play any position above average defensively, and his bat has never been anything close to the inflated BABIP number his rookie year lulled many into thinking. With Ehire Adrianza the superior fielder, and Eduardo Escobar a better all around player, Santana ends up being a roster casualty out of options. Removed from 40 man: 90% Robbie Grossman- OF Of those included, Grossman is probably the least likely to be going anywhere. He's completely tied to Drew Stubbs and how that situation plays out. I'd view them as an interchangeable duo, and only one stays. If Minnesota keeps Grossman, they'll try to hold onto Stubbs on the farm. If it's Stubbs, Grossman will likely look to latch on elsewhere. Removed from 40 man:10% With that breakdown, we have seven candidates that could create room for four or five 40 man additions. The Twins are still a ways away from needing to have answers, but the guys on the bottom list are absolutely going to be considered to make way for those above them. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

There's no skirting around just how bad the Minnesota Twins were on the mound last season. Their starting pitching was the worst in the big leagues, and their relief options broke down far too often as well. Although and overhaul hasn't taken place, the more important understanding is that a heightened focus on defense may be all that was ever needed. Target Field has been pegged all over the place as to which side of the game it favors. Although at times it plays big, I think the understood reality is that it leans more between hitter friendly and neutral. With the Twins running out fly ball pitchers such as Phil Hughes and Hector Santiago, having capable outfielders ready to track balls down is a must. For the first time in 2017, they should have a group worthy of league wide notoriety. Plenty has been made about the boost Jason Castro should provide the pitching staff behind the plate. His pitch framing and game calling approach is a significant upgrade over what Kurt Suzuki brought to the fold. What's overlooked however, is just how important a 162 game sample of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler can be. Defensive metrics remain a mystery, and certainly in a small sample size. Numbers derived from DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) still fail to completely tell us what they're trying to indicate. While the picture of an outcome as it relates to a positive result is painted, the context surrounding each play is often left up for interpretation. Be that as it may, Buxton (3), Kepler (5), and Rosario (2) combined to be worth 10 DRS in 2016. That's hardly a number to be proud of, but again, it's a sign of things to come. In 2016, Buxton and Rosario sporadically played in just 92 games for Minnesota, while Kepler gave the club 113. Without the ability to get in rhythm, contribute continuously, or really cement their place in the outfield, it's far from surprising that the best output wasn't achieved. Given a full year, Buxton is expected to be in the conversation with the likes of the Rays Kevin Kiermaier as the best defensive center fielder in the game. His combination of instincts and elite speed should rarely see balls land around him. Max Kepler will be entering his first full major league season, and comes from a background that has seen him capable of playing all three outfield spots. Having settled into Target Field's dimensions a bit further, a heightened level of comfortability should follow suit. Arguably the biggest question mark of the group is Rosario, and it's in regards to what kind of player he shows up as. Back in 2015, Rosario put up 10 DRS for the Twins in just under 750 innings in left field. He was an assist machine, and rarely had a play go unmade. A season ago, he regressed significantly and was no better than replacement level. The step backwards could be explained by both runners taking less chances on him, as well as a more casual approach to the defensive side of his game. Should he return to form, the trio will have plenty going for it. While on paper the numbers trend towards the Twins having a strong outfield group, there's also a couple of in game factors that show promise. Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler have some of the strongest arms from the grass in the big leagues, and that should help to limit opposing baserunners stretching base hits. On top of their cannons, both Buxton and Kepler have proven their ability to make the difficult play. Over at Baseball Savant, Statcast recently rolled out a new Catch Probability metric. Unlike UZR and DRS, this metric takes into consideration the amount of time a player has to make the play correlates it with the distance needing to be covered. The formula calculates measurable factors to produce and outcome that can be compared across several instances. The results are broken down into plays designated with "Star Rankings," 1 being the easiest opportunities (91-95% probability) and 5 being the most difficult (25% or less probability). Among players with at least 50 opportunities, only seven players had more 5 star outs than Buxton (6) and Kepler (6) recorded. Of those with at least 25 opportunities for a 5 star out, only Adam Eaton's 27% success rate (10-37) was higher than Buxton's 24% (6-24). When looking for Max Kepler on the list, you don't have to go far to see his 18.8% (6-32) comes in 8th among those same stipulations. Being that this is such a new metric, and we only have two years of data, it's hard to glean much from it at this point. Looking at it from its core though, suggesting that both Buxton and Kepler have strong instincts and ball tracking abilities, with solid play making athleticism is a more than fair statement. At the end of the day, Paul Molitor's club is absolutely going to have to pitch. They're integrating Miguel Sano back into third, and have questions about Jorge Polanco at shortstop. When the ball is put in the air to the outfield however, the group that should patrol the grass more often than not, is going to have a very high probability to get the job done for the guy on the bump. The more pieces of the puzzle Minnesota can shore up, the closer they get to becoming a complete team, and this outfield group looks as sure of a bet as any For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Having spent time at spring training down in Fort Myers last week, the Twins came off with a process that looked poised to process better results. 2017 has been looking like a season in which Minnesota could turn the page from an ugly 103 loss a season ago. Then, upon returning to Minnesota, the news that Trevor May's season would now be over had hit. What happens now? After looking back through some of my tweets from Minnesota's exhibition against Team USA, it seems I had been aware of what really was unknown. Sitting around 95 mph on his fastball at the start of the game, May's velocity dipped to 91-92 mph in short order. It was later revealed that in a pitch midway through his outing, he blew out his UCL. Now destined for Tommy John surgery, the Twins must pick up the pieces and ask themselves what's next. I had Trevor May penciled in as the team's fifth starter. He wasn't going back to the bullpen with his back issues, and he offered legitimate upside in the rotation. While that now isn't going to happen, the list of candidates to take his place is long. Everyone from Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Justin Haley to Ryan Vogelsong, Tyler Duffey, and Nick Tepesch should be in play. For Molitor's squad though, I think the narrative is less about the next man up than it is the men already involved. There has long been little doubt that Phil Hughes, Hector Santiago, or Kyle Gibson would be in the Twins Opening Day rotation. Each of those three was a lock, and they'd be joining Opening Day starter Ervin Santana. What becomes integral now is that the trio elevate themselves to pick up the slack. First and foremost, Hughes has to show his injury is behind him. Over the course of the spring, a lot had been made of Hughes' velocity, and for good reason. After undergoing Thoracic Outlet surgery, he's seen a visible decline in the speed of his fastball. For a guy that doesn't blow batters away, losing any competitive advantage isn't ideal. Last season, Hughes turned in just 59 innings before ending his season. He had already given up 11 homers, after surrendering a league worst 29 the season before, and his walk rate had doubled (but still respectable at 2.0 BB/9). Hughes hasn't given Minnesota more than 5.4 K/9 since his incredibly debut season, and he'll need to be better than his low water mark this time around. Minnesota isn't going to bank on him to be that Cy Young type pitcher he was in 2014, but he must have an ERA right under 4.00 and strike out at least six per nine. It's a big ask for a guy with a lot of question marks, but the Twins can't have him do less now. That brings us to Hector Santiago, who's done little to put himself in good graces since getting to Minnesota. The Twins are paying him virtually the same $12 million that Ricky Nolasco took up, and his numbers haven't been heartwarming. After coming over from Los Angeles last season, Santiago owned a 5.58 ERA and gave up 13 long balls (to total 33 on the year). The addition of Jason Castro should help Santiago. Kurt Suzuki wasn't going to do him favors behind the dish, and a pitcher who has given up 62 homers since 2015 needs every advantage he can muster. Again, the Twins won't be counting on the 2015 All Star version of the former Angels pitcher, but they need him to pitch like he deserves to be in the rotation as opposed to an arbitration casualty. Finally, the biggest boost from the group could come from home grown Kyle Gibson. The former first round pick has been a breakout candidate for the past two years now, and it just hasn't come together. After an exciting 2015, Gibson took a big step back in 2016, and that needs to reverse its course. Despite owning a 5.07 ERA last season, it was the 4.70 FIP that did him in. Owning strikeout and walk totals in line with his career norms, Gibson wasn't doing himself any favors with an already shaky defense. Molitor's sinkerballer needs to put himself in good situations and capitalize on them. Through early spring action, he's arguably looked the best of all Twins starters, and while results aren't much to get hung up on, his process and efficiency have been notable as well. If Gibson can emerge as the ace of the Twins staff, and take the reigns from Ervin Santana, the rotation group will be elevated beyond what the loss of May likely is. At the end of the day, Minnesota not having Trevor May in the rotation to begin the year is an unfortunate development. No matter who fills his shoes however, it's going to be on the cast of the already assumed starters that will need to pick up the slack. What kind of upside Minnesota's 5th starter possesses was always going to be a wild card, but the margin for error is now markedly smaller. Time to see who can pick their teammate up. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into spring training, the Minnesota Twins had no less than three of the five starting rotation spots claimed. Ervin Santana was a lock, Kyle Gibson wasn't going anywhere, and Phil Hughes was expected to be healthy enough to claim his role. With two openings left, Hector Santiago was presumably given another one, That left just one spot and a lot of competition for the Twins down in Fort Myers. My expectation from the onset is that Trevor May would be given every opportunity to move back into the starting rotation. Thus far, that looks to be the plan of action that Minnesota has employed as well. May has started games as opposed to coming in second, and has been included among the group of five previously mentioned. However, as he transitions his way back from the bullpen, there could continue to be some growing pains. As a starter, May's velocity will likely dip some from where he was at a year ago, and his strikeout numbers shouldn't be nearly as high. He looked like a natural fit in the role initially, and in time, the rotation seems like the best fit. What's up for debate is whether or not Opening Day represents that correct timing. If it's not Trevor May, there's more than a handful of possible candidates. It would be great if Jose Berrios was dominant this spring and ran away with the role, but it appears his command is still coming into form. Veteran Ryan Vogelsong was brought in as a likely bridge guy, and there's not much reason to block prospects by sending him to Rochester. Could Rule 5 pick Justin Haley get some run in the rotation? Even former Texas Rangers starter Nick Tepesch figures to make things interesting. Of all the possible outcomes though, it may be the guy that Minnesota nabbed for Eduardo Nunez from the San Francisco Giants. Enter Adalberto Mejia. Mejia was Baseball Prospectus' 86th prospect prior to the 2015 season. He has top 100 prospect notoriety from a couple of other outlets as well. The 6'3" hurler would give the Twins flexibility with a second lefty in the rotation, and he should be viewed as having a relatively safe floor. Although he doesn't necessarily possess the ceiling of prospects like Jose Berrios, Stephen Gonsalves, or even Fernando Romero, as a 5th starter, there's reason to be excited. In 2016, Mejia posted a 3.00 ERA between Double and Triple-A in the Giants and Twins organizations. He owned a respectable 8.6 K/9 while issuing just 2.0 free passes per nine innings. For the most part, Mejia has kept the ball in the yard, and his 132 innings a season ago represent a sizeable workload. With just over two innings of big league experience under his belt, you can't draw anything from Mejia's exposure with Minnesota a season ago. His fastball sits low 90's while he also utilizes a four pitch mix including a slider, curve, and chanegup. There's no reason to think that Mejia would be incredibly out of his element when called upon to pitch at the highest level. Thus far this spring, and it's early, Mejia has shown well. He's done nothing to set himself back, and he's taken advantage of the opportunities presented to him. It's going to take some combination of May faltering to bump Mejia up the ladder, but it's far from being out of the question. If it's Mejia that the Twins give the ball to when the 5th turn comes around, buckle in and enjoy the ride. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I believe Murphy has options remaining. This is assuming Vargas opens as DH Adrianza is on the 40 man. The Twins have plenty of guys they can cut bait with, Santana being one of them. I think that's the one outlier on Grossman. He was TERRRRRRIBLE last year, and has never even been bad before.

The Minnesota Twins have now played a handful of games this spring, and with the calendar quickly approaching the middle of March, players will be cut and reassigned to minor league camp shortly. For Paul Molitor's club, squeaking out extra wins on a roster looking to rebound from a tough 2016 is going to be an absolute must. I'm not so convinced there aren't a few surprises in store as to how the bench is constructed. Arguably the most predictable scenario, or at least the one causing the least amount of change, would include a bench of John Ryan Murphy, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, and Danny Santana. If the Twins go that route, they'd be looking to make as few waves as possible, and it's probably the safest bet as well. Although the ceiling for each player isn't high at all, the floor also isn't disastrous for the most part. Getting creative though, there's a real situation in which none, or almost none, of those players go north with the Twins this spring. If Minnesota looks for upside, and some fresh talent, there's a surprise group of four players that could join together. Here's what that may look like: Mitch Garver- Backup Catcher Garver owned a ,764 OPS between Double and Triple-A in 2016. It was a nice offensive showing, and his defense was spectacular. He threw out 52% of would be base stealers in Chattanooga (44 attempts) and caught three of ten runners at Triple-A. Garver is 25 and has never been a household name, but he's pushed himself to the top of the Twins organization when it comes to up and coming backstops. He's a right-handed batter and would give the Twins both a defensive minded option to spell Jason Castro, as well as bringing a respectable bat to the big leagues. It's a pretty big jump for him to go from 22 Triple-A games to the big leagues, so that could definitely work against him. Unless the Twins settle for John Ryan Murphy or Chris Gimenez, Garver absolutely makes a good deal of sense. Ehire Adrianza- SS, 2B, 3B New to the Twins organization, Adrianza has never been lauded as any sort of top prospect. What has been touted this offseason however is his glove, and specifically at shortstop. In a limited sample size, he's produced Andrelton Simmons-esque defensive metrics, and that's something the Twins haven't had for quite some time. Adrianza owns just a .605 OPS in 154 MLB games but he's got a .822 OPS across five Triple-A seasons. Even if he can't bring much to the plate, Adrianza could be vital to the Twins with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco slated to man the left side of the infield. Pitching could end up struggling to get consistent outs from that side of the diamond, and Adrianza as a fill in or defensive replacement makes a good deal of sense. Zach Granite- OF The Minnesota Twins minor league player of the year would be making his big league debut if he joined the 25 man roster. Granite brings exceptional speed and defense to the big league club, and that's absolutely what separates him from the competition. Last season, as a 23 year old at Double-A, Granite posted a .729 OPS (his best as a pro). More of a singles hitter than a gap guy, Granite got on base and then advanced via the steal. He racked up 56 stolen bases and nearly walked (42) more often than he struck out (43). When comparing Granite to the likes of Robbie Grossman, or even J.B. Shuck, Minnesota gets a fielder that can realistically play all three outfield spots. Granite is above average no matter where he is in the grass, and has the speed to let very little fall in. The big jump from Double-A is worrisome potentially, but as a hitter with a great eye, the on base skills could quickly rival those of Grossman. Byungho Park- 1B/DH Removed from the 40 man roster this offseason, the Twins gave Kennys Vargas the leg up in winning the designated hitter role. He still could fill that spot, but a healthy Park should be expected to be a different player. He struggled with velocity in his first big league season, although a wrist injury could have contributed to that. Park's spring homers thus far have come off of 93 and 96 mph heat, and while he'll still strikeout plenty, that power can play. While Joe Mauer is Gold Glove caliber at 1B, he's not going to be able to play every day. Vargas has been below average defensively, while in roughly the same limited sample, Park has been as asset. He was a quality player in the field over in Korea, and represents a clear upgrade in the field behind Mauer as well. This construction would require the Twins to figure out what to do with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana, and Eduardo Escobar. They can save money (roughly $2 million) by moving on from Escobar. Grossman has a smaller deal, and Santana has been a guy that I've contended Minnesota would be best served to move along from for quite some time. The likelihood that this construction plays out if minute at best, but it remains an intriguing group of guys that I believe would serve the Twins well to start 2017. Admittedly the biggest hole here is the lack of a left-handed bat, but given Minnesota's options, it still may represent the most optimal scenario. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins. There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands. Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts. Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor. Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career. The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump. If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit. As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place. Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Many have argued over the years that the amount of games played in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues could be drastically reduced. While teams need to gear up for their upcoming schedules, a month long exhibition fest may be too long. What's always worth remembering though, is that the process is more telling than the results. It's pretty easy to understand that the record the Minnesota Twins, or any other team for that matter, put forth over the next month doesn't hold much weight. What's harder to wrap your head around is the production doesn't carry much weight either. Whether home runs are being sent over the wall on a consistent basis, or strikeouts are being piled up, the results are always going to be looked at through the microscope of the process. Early on in spring training, we've been reminded of this thanks to Byungho Park. The Korean slugger has two homers to his credit already, and has been the Twins star through the first handful of games. He's also not on the 40 man roster, and is being forced to prove why he's more deserving of an Opening Day roster spot than Kennys Vargas. Whether or not he continues to provide #ParkBang highlights or not, the questions will be in regards to his strikeout rate, and how well Vargas is playing. The reality is that spring production can far too often be an outlier. While I have continued to conduct the Park hype train, suggesting his 2016 was a mirage due in large part to injury, his uphill climb is a massive one. Trying to figure out how the narrative plays out when the dust settles simply from a production standpoint is a fool's errand. Should we get to the end of March with Park continuing to put together complete at bats, and Vargas finds himself struggling, we may have more to look at. Also worth noting is that spring training isn't simply process oriented for just the players, but the manager as well. It is here that Paul Molitor needs to begin to put his best foot forward in a season in which he could be managing for his career. Far too often a year ago, his lineups lacked any evidence based backing, and he often times appeared in over his head during in-game situations. Through just the first few games, Molitor has played Leonardo Reginatto in LF, despite being a career infielder (an outfield blunder ensued). He has used Daniel Palka in LF with Robbie Grossman in RF despite the natural spots for both being the opposite. He's even used top prospect Nick Gordon as a 2B, despite him playing just two professional games there, and Gordon ended up looking out of position communicating on a short blooper to right. While it's fair to understand that spring training is about getting players repetitions in games, it's also integral that they happen in logical scenarios. Playing guys out of position simply to get them in, or worse, because you don't know any better, does no one any good. If there's something that Molitor needs to take drastic strides forward from 2016 in, it's understanding the strengths of his team, and relating better to the youth that should be the lifeblood of this organization. Spring training is still in its infancy at this point, and with multiple weeks of action left, the club is going to move towards a more well oiled machine. Players, such as Byungho Park, will need to make their process match up consistently with the results. The manager will have to do the same. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

While Spring Training is just a few games old, the Minnesota Twins have thrown plenty of pitchers. Coming off one of the worst pitching seasons in franchise history, it's incredibly important that Paul Molitor's club puts its best foot forward early this season. The immediate indications suggest there could be some excitement on the bump. After making his spring debut, Trevor May reiterated to Cory Provus on the Twins Radio Network, that his goal is to work as a starter in 2017. He wants to eat innings, totaling over 200, and he wants to take a burden off the bullpen. As a guy who's now seen what an overtaxed relief corps can look like, his goal is an admirable one. In his Grapefruit League debut, the most exciting thing may have been just how quickly his pitches were crossing the plate. Having averaged right around 93 mph in relief a season ago, May didn't see the sizable uptick that normally greets pitchers in the pen. As a starter, May worked mainly at 95, topping out at 96, and working above 94 for the duration of his 31 pitch outing. While it's not quite upper 90's heat, it is an increase that may not have been predictable. Although he did deal with back injuries a season ago, May hasn't ever been highly touted as a flamethrower. What's also exciting is that May isn't on his own. Both Fernando Romero and Jose Berrios drew plenty of praise from the Fort Myers radar gun in their Grapefruit League debuts. Romero has been named to many top Twins prospect lists, and some have him as the best player in the system. With true ace potential, Romero is the outlier that seems to have gotten stronger post Tommy John surgery. In his initial showing against the Washington Nationals, Romero pumped a fastabll that topped out at 98 mph, and backed it up with a slider that registered at 89 on the gun. A lethal combination that helped to rack up just shy of 10.0 K/9 at Fort Myers last season, Romero has done nothing to suggest he isn't one to keep an eye on. He has real ability to overpower big league hitters, and his command was more than promising in just over 90 innings pitched during 2016. Although Berrios didn't spot his pitches as fluidly as the Twins may have liked, his first two spring innings showed promise as well. With Romero, he was the only other pitcher to register two strikeouts in his debut action, and his fastball touched 96 while sitting 94-95. At the big league level last year, Berrios averaged just north of 93 mph. His fastball has always had solid movement, and for a guy short in stature with an unfortunate ball plane, generating extra velocity is a definite positive. Maybe most intriguing from the early spring velocity numbers is that it would give the Twins a new found weapon to their pitching arsenal. For an organization that has so often been comfortable pitching to contact, there's real strikeout arms that can contribute in relative short order. I wouldn't expect Romero to debut in the big leagues this season, but both May and Berrios should provide Minnesota better strikeout numbers than the rest of their starting contingent. There's nothing wrong with having sinkerballers, or guys that generate outs by getting batters to put the ball in play. Pairing them with a stable of similar individuals doesn't challenge opposing hitters however, and on a nightly basis, the difference should be a bit more significant. Derek Falvey has gone on record multiple times throughout the offseason suggesting that the way in which the Twins develop pitching will be challenged. They are going to collaborate from multiple different avenues, and are going to work towards pushing the envelope when it comes to results. It's a great idea in theory, and given the brief beginning to Falvey's Head of Baseball Ops tenure with the Twins, seems to be a believable plan of action as well. Paul Molitor is going to need his pitchers to give him more this season if Minnesota is going to avoid another disastrous record. The expectation should be that the water level will be raised, but if this trend keeps up, the club will only stand to reap significant benefits. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

When it comes to baseball cards, Topps remains the gold standard. With the 2017 Series 1 collection already released, Topps is hard at work readying plenty of new offerings to baseball fans throughout the upcoming season. The Topps Now program was a great addition to the card collecting scene a season ago, and what's in store for the season ahead should continue to be plenty exciting. Earlier this offseason, Topps sent out thank you cards to customers that purchased Topps Now product a season ago. While it was a nice touch in and of itself, maybe the most exciting bit was that they would be unveiling "Road to Opening Day" sets. Players will be revealed for each team throughout spring training, and the set itself comes with some added perks. Direct from Topps' website, here's some information on the Minnesota Twins Road to Opening Day set: New to this year’s edition of Topps Now MLB are Road To Opening Day Team Sets for all 30 teams! As a purchaser of this set, you will have the chance to win Topps Now bonus cards, which are directly dependent upon the success of the 2017 Twins! Below is a list of player/team milestones that will trigger your exclusive bonus card(s) over the course of the 2017 season… Twins place first in division at MLB All-Star Break Twins pitcher tosses no-hitter or perfect game at any point in regular or postseason Twins hitter hits for cycle at any point in regular or postseason Although the Twins have yet to have a player revealed, the set will be worth watching all the way up until April 4th, at which point the sale ends and the set is printed and shipped. The 15 card set will cost $49.99 and offer fans, as noted above, a chance at bonus exclusive cards throughout the 2017 campaign. As a reader of Off The Baggy, you have the exciting opportunity to win one of these exclusive Topps Now Minnesota Twins Opening Day sets. Topps will be providing a giveaway that I'll announce rules and entry specifications for at a later date. Should you end up not winning, or want to guarantee your set, you can purchase them directly from Topps here. Finally, throughout the season as Twins players generate Topps Now cards through spectacular moments, you can count on Off The Baggy to bring you the news first. Working directly with Topps, Off The Baggy will have information on the upcoming card and where you can make a purchase. For all your future baseball card needs, a direct link to the Topps website has been added to the right side of the Off The Baggy page. There should be plenty of excitement for the Twins in a turnaround 2017 season, and Topps will be there to commemorate it all. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With the offseason officially behind us, and the first pitches of Spring Training already having been thrown, the Twins will kick off their slate of games down in Fort Myers. As the club embarks on a turnaround in 2017, there's plenty of things to keep an eye on in the first year of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine being at the helm. Although the front office isn't visible on the field of play, their decisions should be apparent to those that have become accustomed to how things used to run. For Molitor, he'll have some decisions that are put in front of him requiring better execution and results from the 103 losses suffered a season ago. Over the course of the next month or so though, there's a handful of key situations worth monitoring. The Battle To Hit This offseason, Byungho Park was DFA'd and had to pass through waivers. He went unclaimed and was outrighted to Triple-A Rochester. Still invited to big league camp, he's battling with Kennys Vargas for the designated hitter role, and he's got a massive hill to climb. Vargas is going to be given every opportunity to head north, and Park is no longer on the 40 man roster. I'd be shocked if Park doesn't get some run at the big league level this season, and I expect him to have a strong second season in the big leagues. Vargas has a lot of supporters, and given his numbers, it seems a bit over-zealous to me. Regardless, Minnesota needs to get production out of the DH spot, and the responsibility will fall on one of these two. Rounding Out the Rotation Four of the five starting pitchers seem to be locked in at this point. Ervin Santana is going to get the ball on Opening Day, while some order of Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, and Hector Santiago follow him. From there, it's a toss up between the likes of Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, Adalberto Mejia, and maybe even Justin Haley. While Minnesota was the worst pitching team last season, they have no shortage of options in 2017. Going north, I'd expect May to get the nod. He's going to make the club, and given his injury issues due to bullpen usage, I can't see any reason not to give him another crack at starting. Berrios has nothing to prove at the Triple-A level, but giving an arbitration deal to Hector Santiago took up a rotation spot with a questionable ceiling. I'd love to see Duffey transition to the pen, and outside of Mejia, the only other name I'm really intrigued by is Haley. Playing Out The Pen With the bullpen needing a boost, the Twins also have a large contingent of relief options. Only Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Pressly should be considered locks at this point. Glen Perkins probably isn't a good bet to count on, and the other five arms could come from a group of about 10-12 players. This season, the Twins need more strikeout pitchers and a better usage plan to utilize pitchers strengths. Creating a group with higher ceilings in general is a good look, and Minnesota should be well positioned to do that. Learning The Ropes The left side of the infield could be a disaster, or it may end up being overblown speculation. Either way, we know Jorge Polanco wasn't good at all a season ago when playing shortstop. There's always been concerns about him sticking there, and we need proof that he and Brian Dozier can coexist. Next to him, Miguel Sano will be attempting to prove he can handle the hot corner. A big boy that's already been bumped from two positions in his professional career, a full time DH role would be unfortunate. There's glove first options for the Twins that can take over, but the reality is that Molitor's lineup is best when both of these two are in it. They need to provide defensive value along with bringing their bat to the park. A Surprise On The 25 Down in Fort Myers this year, the Twins have a few bigger name non-roster guys. Both from within the organization, and joining it for the first time, will any of them make a surprise jump to the 25 man? Can Park work his way back? Does Vogelsong or Tepesch have value? Where does Drew Stubbs fit? Over the course of the spring slate, the Twins will have to sort out who they want to protect, and who may have a future. Carlos Quentin was the lone ranger a season ago, and there's more than a few guys just looking for a chance. I'm not sure any of them can separate themselves far enough, but if there's one thing that's certain, it's that Minnesota could use to improve the bottom of their active roster. For a team coming off 103 losses, there's no place for this group to go but up. They have significantly more talent than the 2016 record displayed, and there's plenty to keep an eye on over the next month. Buckle up and let's get going. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Early on in spring training, Thad Levine said that Brandon Kintzler would be "given every opportunity to start the year in the closer's role." That statement all but solidified the assumed reality that Glen Perkins will open 2017 on the disabled list for the Minnesota Twins. What's worth wondering is, who closes out the most games for the hometown nine when the dust settles? For Minnesota, having an elite closer in a season that .500 looks to be a solid effort, there's no denying that being anything but a luxury. However, given the way the sport has trended, bullpens are anchored by the guy who can slam the door on a victory. Although Paul Molitor won't have Aroldis Chapman to call on out of his pen, he'll have some solid options even if it isn't Kintzler that racks up the biggest number. So who are the candidates and where do they fall? Brandon Kintzler Coming in as the incumbent, Kintzler will likely get the longest leash of any pitcher entering in the 9th inning for Minnesota. He racked up 17 saves a year ago and did so to a respectable 3.15 ERA. The problem for Kintzler could come in the fact that he simply doesn't miss bats. He totalled just 5.8 K/9, and that's not far off from his 6.5 career mark. Throwing just 92 mph, he doesn't bring swing and miss stuff, and if there's a place that it falls apart, that could be it. Glen Perkins Perkins is a three time All-Star, and pushed his Twins career saves total to 120. He's held his own in the role since the 2012 season, and outside of injuries, he's been one of the best under-the-radar-pitchers in the game. That injury though, it's real, and it's scary. Perkins had to have his labrum reattached to the bone, and his shoulder may never be the same. He's going to open the year on the DL, and frankly, I'm not sure he should be relied upon in any great measure for the rest of his career. J.T. Chargois A college closer, Chargois has been among the touted fireballing relievers coming up through the Twins system. He beat the likes of Nick Burdi and Jake Reed to the show, and there's plenty of reason to be excited about him sticking. While his first 23 MLB innings were a mixed bag, that 96.6mph average on his fastball is legit. Chargois is going to need to settle into the highest level, but the Twins would gladly welcome his minor league career 10.6 K/9 Ryan Pressly A former Rule 5 draft pick, Pressly has long been one of the most underappreciated arms in the Twins pen. Last season, his fourth in the big leagues, Pressly picked up his first save. He's generated a nice 7.8 K/9 over the past two seasons and his velocity sat at a career best 95.2 mph average in 2016. If inexperience is working against Pressly, it might be wise to be reminded that Glen Perkins had to start somewhere as well. Tyler Duffey Maybe thrown in somewhat for fun, but Duffey has a legitimate reason to be named in this space as well. He was college teammates with Chargois at Rice, and the operated as co-closers. Working as a starter for the Twins thus far, I think Duffey's best cast as a relief option. He has a three pitch mix that's focused mainly around a fastball and a curveball. His 90.4 mph velocity should see an uptick with lower usage rates though. I'd put him in a middle innings role first, but Duffey could work his way to the back of the bullpen. The Best of the Rest If one of these guys ends up leading the Twins in saves during the 2017 season, the injury bug has a wrath that really has no fear. Regardless, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and even Trevor Hildenberger could all be in line to call the closer space their home in the not-so-distant future. Burdi is the hardest throwing of the trio, while Hildenberger is the most advanced at this point. Each of them has some command issues to deal with, but expecting them to be quality big league pen options seems like a really good bet. If you ask me to put money on it right now, I'd go with J.T. Chargois leading the Twins in saves this year when everything is said and done. I think Kintzler works better as a lower leverage type, and I just don't know what to expect out of Perkins. Pressly would be a fun option to run out there, but I'm not sure the Twins will move him out of his setup-type role. No matter who closes games for the Twins this year, Paul Molitor will be hoping they have ample opportunity. For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins are nearly certain they'll start Jorge Polanco at shortstop to open the 2017 season. He played over 400 innings there in 2016, and with Brian Dozier remaining within the organization, there isn't realistic room to shift Polanco to the other side of second base. The question is, can his bat elevate him high enough to overcome his defensive inefficiency? Under Paul Molitor last season, Polanco started 45 games at shortstop. Prior to that, the last time he played shortstop was for a 19 game stint at Triple-A Rochester in 2015. Recently, Molitor was asked why a guy they relied upon so heavily, wasn't given a better opportunity to succeed. On Polanco not playing shortstop in the minors last season, the Twins skipper told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, "I wish I had a better explanation, we didn't handle it the right way." That's an answer that could be used all too often for some of Molitor's roster and lineup decisions a season ago, but it's one that needs to be phased out in the coming season. For a Twins club that should be looking at defense as the linchpin to growth, making sure guys are well positioned and prepared is a must. For Polanco though, it's worth wondering just how much can be done. Prior to the 2016 season, Polanco showed up on both Baseball American and MLB.com's Top 100 prospect lists. He was primarily a second basemen, and has been widely regarded as a bat first guy. Across seven minor league seasons, the young Dominican owns a .757 OPS backed by a strong .286 average and .346 OBP. He's never going to hit for much power, but as a gap guy with speed, he'll stretch extra bases plenty. It's always seemed that second would be his home however, and that coexisting with Brian Dozier was unlikely. A year ago, Polanco turned in 406 innings at short. He racked up a -8 DRS and committed 11 errors. It wasn't quite a Danny Santana level of futility (-15 DRS 16 E in 578.1 innings during 2015), but it was well down that path. Polanco's range was a serious detriment for the Twins (-10.9 UZR) as well, and it's probably fair to wonder if taking poor routes to compensate for a noted lack of arm strength wasn't part of the issue. All things considered, expecting Polanco to win a Gold Glove playing shortstop is not a likely proposition. For Minnesota though, that really shouldn't be the goal. What they need to see happen is Polanco land somewhere in the average territory, and we can find a relative group of what that may look like. In 2016, only five players (with 400+ innings) had worse DRS numbers at short than Polanco. Alexei Ramirez (-20), Brad Miller (-14), and Jordy Mercer (-9) all played for losing clubs. Both Xander Bogaerts (-10) and Didi Gregorious (-9) played on teams with winning records, and their bats spoke loudly for them. At the top of the shortstop DRS list resides the likes of Addison Russell (19) and Brandon Crawford (19). The middle ground is something in the -3 to 0 range. Seven shortstops fall within -3 to 0 DRS having played over 400 innings. They include Carlos Correa, Chris Owings, Aledmys Diaz, Elvis Andrus, Ketel Marte, Orlando Arcia, and Corey Seager. Of that group, only Owings' Diamondbacks and Arcia's Brewers had losing seasons. There's also a decent contingent of solid hitters in that bunch, allowing them to contribute to their club's offensive production as well. For Jorge Polanco, finding a way to get to the middle ground is a must. He can't continue to post the 6th worst DRS numbers in the big leagues, and he has to put up a better UZR than the 5th worst mark in baseball. By now we know that the position puts a strain on him with a lack of arm strength, and honestly, being miscast as a fit. Although he's not going to hit like Bogaerts, a Gregorious-esque (.276/.304/.447) slash line seems more than doable. With a few minor tweaks, rounding himself into a more complete player would help the Twins out substantially. In 2017, the Twins are going to win more games simply because of minor tweaks. Jason Castro elevates the pitching staff, and a consistent outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler provide a massive defensive boost. Polanco needs to raise the water mark by elevating his play just a little, even if he's still somewhat of a liability. The bat has never been the concern, and it's time to make the glove less of one. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I mean, math from the hip, but shy of 100

For a couple of seasons, Byron Buxton was the top prospect in all of Major League Baseball. The Twins second overall pick in the 2012 draft was making scouts drool with a shed full of tools just begging to be put on display at the big league level. Fast forward to 2017, and we haven't seen it all come together yet, but the Minnesota centerfielder is an eyelash away from already becoming elite. Offensively, Buxton has excelled at every stop he's made on his way to the big leagues. Batting average, on base percentage, and even some power, the speedy kid from Georgia has done it all. While the big leagues have presented more of a challenge, his .287/.357/.653 slash line in 29 games from September 1 through the end of 2016 should present plenty of reason for optimism. When trying to quantify Buxton's value though, you're backwards if you're starting with a bat in his hand. In 2016, Buxton played just 92 games for the Minnesota Twins. He made 88 starts in centerfield, or roughly just over a third of the season. In that time frame, he posted a +3 DRS, and a 3.9 UZR. Although extrapolating those numbers to 162 games doesn't immediately put him in the elite territory of Kevin Pillar or Kevin Kiermaier defensively, the secondary information tells us to expect that as reality. Per Daren Willman of MLB.com, just four center fielders made at least 10 catches in which they had to travel 100 feet. Buxton was among them, and only Leonys Martin had 11 of the group. Of the other three players (Martin, Jake Marisnick, and Adam Eaton), none played in less than 118 games for their big league club, affording them at least 26 more games of opportunity than the Twins speedy outfielder. Looking at Fangraphs, and using Inside Edge technology, Byron Buxton had 10 opportunities to make plays with a "remote" chance of success last season. The definition given is that success falls within a 1-10% chance. Of those ten plays, Buxton made one. However, among players with at least ten opportunities (13 total), only Billy Hamilton (53.3%) made catches more often. The trend becoming apparent here is that Buxton's speed absolutely will play. Broken down by this graph on BaseballSavant.com, Buxton also made 27 catches that were deemed "tough" or "highlight" worthy. Putting him up against the rest of the big leagues, that number stands out even despite his limited exposure. The absolute hope for 2017 would be that James Rowson can help to unlock Buxton's big league bat in a way that Tom Brunansky couldn't. It's a pretty decent bet that the scenario plays out, but for the 23 year old, even if it doesn't things will be fine. On a bad day, Buxton is probably a .240 hitter that steals bases and stretches singles. Given the reality that his center field defense will put him in the discussion as being the best in the game, Minnesota has cemented a great player for quite some time. If things break right offensively even a little bit, Buxton is going to vault himself into conversation as one of the most complete players in all of baseball. Elite defensively already, the Twins are just looking for that final piece of the puzzle. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I can't see any way the Twins only go with 3 bench players and Escobar's OF days should be long gone.

Not sure if I led you in the wrong direction or not, but the point us Adrianza and Escobar take the utility spots.