Ted Schwerzler

Median or worse because of offensive expectations? He doesn't hit for power, but his 36 doubles last season were a yearly high since 2010. As a defender, graded out as elite, and better in baseball than anyone not named Brandon Belt...

I thought it an interesting hire from the get go for Detroit, because Gardy is being brought in at around the same situation he was let go from the Twins. The thinking behind 87 wins is an improved team, and a worse division. They've addressed regression and then some. If I really wanted to go out on a limb, I'd be closer to saying they'll win 90 than win 81. Sano playing DH means he's failed to control his weight and therefore his athleticism. I think that'll end up being the case, but I'd still prefer to see either a 3B/1B bat or a RH OF bat brought in.

Woof, how did I forget that, thanks. I'd tend to agree with you that if there's a team at the bottom capable of winning some down the stretch it would be the White Sox. So much hinges on the development of their prospects, when they arrive, and how much they contribute.

With free agency being a bit slower moving (to put it nicely) this offseason, this piece comes out a few weeks later than in previous years. At this point, there's still a handful of quality major league talent unemployed. For the most part, I think the AL Central is looking towards the year ahead as opposed to who else can join them in competing during 2018. Projection systems have started to run win totals for the upcoming season, and major sportsbook Bovada has also posted over/under win totals for each team. Rather than hold out for the last of the remaining free agents to leave IMG Academy in Bradenton, it's time to throw numbers out for the Twins and their competition. Here's how I see the AL Central in 2018: 1. Cleveland Indians (98-64) The team at the top of the division seems to have taken a slight step backwards over the offseason. Carlos Santana left for the Phillies, and key pen arm Bryan Shaw is no longer in the mix. Yonder Alonso will have to recapture his Oakland magic if he's going to remove the memory of Santana, and it'll be lightning in a bottle if Melvin Upton or one of the MiLB deals pans out well. That said, the Indians are still the team to be in the division, and it's largely on the backs of a strong pitching staff. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco remain lights out at the top, with a strong duo of Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer behind them. The bottom half of the Central getting weaker should help add some additional wins to offset some of the talent losses. 2. Minnesota Twins (87-75) If you asked me to take a bet on what was more likely, the Twins win 90 games or lose 81, I'd take the former. After making a Postseason appearance a season ago, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine accomplished what they set out to do this winter. Although the club didn't land the big fish in Yu Darvish, Jake Odorizzi is a top three starter for them, and helps to supplement the roation. The relief corps was strengthened with the addition of Addison Reed, and both Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney should play a big role for this club. With so many players still looking for jobs, it's fair to wonder if Minnesota doesn't aim a bit higher than Kennys Vargas or Robbie Grossman for the DH role. I'd expect Miguel Sano to miss a handful of games due to suspension, but still think he'll have a shot at surpassing the 114 contests he got into a season ago. Another year of growth for the youth, plus some key veteran additions, make the Twins the most improved team in the AL. Their record is a reflection of battling back against regression, as well as a division that should have plenty more wins to be had from the doldrums. 3. Kansas City Royals (72-90) If there's a team that lost more than the Indians over the offseason, it's definitely the Royals. Unfortunately for Kansas City, they don't have near the ability left to overcome it. Exits from Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain will be felt mightily, and even if Mike Moustakas is brought back, the core just isn't there any longer. Jason Vargas played a key role in the first half for the Royals, and he's now in New York. Combine the exits with a lack of internal talent ready to step up and you've got somewhat of a doomsday scenario. Right now, the Royals are treading water but don't have much of a direction. The farm doesn't have anything in terms of top prospects, and there's a lot of fliers at the top that can play fill in roles. Without much in terms of capital to deal for future talent either, it could be a bit before the Royals find themselves relevant again. 4. Chicago White Sox (69-93) Arguably the most talent deprive 25 man roster in the division, the White Sox are in a full rebuild situation, but at least they know it. Having moved on from players in return for a good group of prospects, there's a plan in place here even if it takes a few more years to come to fruition. Over the winter, Chicago handed out a few low-risk veteran deals that should also be able to net them some pieces throughout the upcoming season. Yoan Moncada should be a staple at the big league level this season, but guys like Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech aren't there yet. Lucas Giolito needs to be a big arm for the South Siders, and players like Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, and Dylan Cease have to develop in the year ahead as well. Most of the names Chicago will build its future around won't show up in 2018, but fans should be checking the box scores on the farm frequently. 5. Detroit Tigers (66-96) The bottom three teams in the division provide nice comparisons to each other. If the Royals are treading water without a plan, and the White Sox are stripping it down to rebuild, the Tigers are old and stuck in some level of purgatory. Miguel Cabrera still has six-years and $184 million left on his deal, and I'd suspect no one would take on Cabrera's contract at this point. Michael Fulmer is a nice young piece, but he probably isn't going to be around by the time Detroit finds itself relevant again. For new skipper Ron Gardenhire, the club is going to have to find a direction sooner rather than later. The club should hang around in the early going, but fading down the stretch and holding somewhat of a fire sale seems like a good bet. Gardenhire was let go around the time Minnesota could see the rebuild bear fruit, so he'll be navigating some similar waters in Motown with 90 loss seasons checking off the past four years of his resume. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Also a solid point. It feels long ago, but Pearson, Severino, and Banuelos are great additions that the Twins gave up nothing of substance for.

The addition of Odorizzi while giving up next to nothing in return is big. Twins can still turn prospects into a nice piece at the deadline if they want to.

Over the course of his career, Joe Mauer has been worth 48.1 fWAR. As a catcher (and including his 35 G rookie year), he averaged 4.1 fWAR per season. Having played four years since moving from behind the dish, that would extrapolate his total to 60.34 fWAR. That number would put him somewhere in the realm of Fisk, Berra, and Pizza. No other AL catcher has ever won a batting title, and only two other catchers have one a single one at all. Mauer has 3. I realize people dislike his contract (wrongly), or are mad because he doesn't profile as a prototypical first basemen (or power threat), but if you don't see what he's done over the course of his career (and what is was on track to be), then I really can't help you. Oh, and because why not at this point.... Mauer>Puckett

Over the weekend, Minnesota Twins fans felt the full gambit of emotions. After announcing that Anibal Sanchez had been given a major league deal, frustration was felt in full force. A bounce-back candidate that has ugly numbers of late wasn't going to gain much confidence for a revamped starting rotation. Then, a day later, Jake Odorrizi was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays and the tide felt like it had turned. Putting a bow on the Minnesota offseason, it's hard not to like where this team is headed. Going into the offseason, the Twins had one focus in hopes of returning to Postseason play, fix the pitching. The 4.60 team ERA in 2017 came in 19th among MLB clubs, and the 7.31 K/9 was better than only the Texas Rangers. Both in the rotation and the pen, Paul Molitor's club needed better names and the ability to miss more bats. From the jump, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine knew this was where the focus had to be, and it appeared they had a plan to execute on. Signing Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke, the Twins bring in two arms with little risk and a relatively high upside. Rodney is an experience, but his 10.6 K/9 is an asset, and he allows arms like Trevor Hildenberger to be deployed outside of the 9th inning. Duke isn't just a LOOGY, and he too is a punchout pitcher when healthy. There's little arguing that Addison Reed was the pen headliner this winter however. After signing a 2yr/$16.75M deal with Minnesota, Falvey and Levine had somehow landed one of the premier options on what looked like a budget deal. Yet to hit 30, Reed owns a career 9.5 K/9 and a 2/3 BB/9 that makes him arguably the best arm in Minnesota's relief corps. While it's hard to overstate the importance of the three relief acquisitions on their own merits, it's also big to note what their inclusion does for Paul Molitor as a whole. Instead of rounding out the pen with toss in names, the Twins can now rely on arms like Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, and Ryan Pressly as complimentary pieces. Again, with the goal being a raised water level across the board, the front office accomplished that to a T in the pen. From the outset of the winter Minnesota was tied to starter Yu Darvish. Given all of the factors, a union of the two sides made an immeasurable amount of sense from the home town perspective. Unfortunately, Darvish chose to sign with the Chicago Cubs in the end. Falvey and Levine may have ruled themselves out by failing to match the Cubs offer, but the likelihood always remained that the former Rangers ace wanted a bigger market than the up and coming Twins. While a tough blow for sure, there's no sense of settling either. With Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, and Jake Arrieta all having their warts, the remaining top tier free agents left a decent bit to be desired. Draft pick compensation was tied to each of them, and the dollar ask would likely not be in the line with the expected level of production. Although I'll always be of the stance that you should spend from an unlimited cash pool as opposed to dealing from a limited talent pool in acquiring players, Minnesota found a way to make things look better the opposite way. Netting Jake Odorizzi from the Tampa Bay Rays, the Twins gave up little more than a flier middle infielder. Jermaine Palacios went on a tear to start the 2017 season at Cedar Rapids, but struggled mightily as a 20 year-old at High-A Fort Myers. Odorizzi is a soon-to-be 28 year-old under team control for two more years, and immediately slots in among Minnesota's top three. Despite tallying his worst season as a pro in 2017, the numbers still equated to a 4.14 ERA and an 8.0 K/9. For the former Rays hurler, a 5.14 FIP and 3.8 BB/9 leave plenty of room for growth. His HR/9 rate spiked to 1.9 a season ago, and there's been plenty made about the idea that getting down in the zone could be a key to expanded success. Not the headliner that Odorizzi is for Minnesota, Anibal Sanchez being brought in as a depth signing looks much better than when it was originally reported. I still think it's odd the deal needed to be of the MLB sort, guaranteeing a current 40 man roster spot despite it being uncertain that he'll make the opening day roster. The ERA there is awful, but the 8.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 are great marks. Sanchez posted a 2.52 FIP in his first two seasons with the Tigers, and then ballooned to a 5.01 mark the past three years. After never allowing home runs, he's gotten worse the last three seasons going from 1.7 to 1.8 to 2.2 HR/9. If Falvey saw a correctable adjustment to keep the ball in the park, that contract could end up being a steal for the Twins. As with the bullpen, the goal in the rotation was to raise the overall water level. Now with Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Ervin Santana locked in as the top three, Minnesota has an enhanced level of depth to fill out the back end. Nothing is guaranteed for Adalberto Mejia, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, or Sanchez in terms of a rotation spot. They'll all be pushed by the likes of Stephen Gonsalves, Fernado Romero, Zack Littell, and Dietrich Enns. For a club that used way too many arms, and saw a vast level of ineffectiveness at times a season ago, the situation as a whole looks much better entering 2018. Given the current roster construction, I'd imagine the Twins are done adding arms. They probably have room for a bat on a minor league deal, and 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson has been suggesting that could be Mike Napoli for weeks now. The Rays recently DFA'd Corey Dickerson, and he'd be a huge addition for Minnesota as well. Regardless, if another move is coming, it's probably a less noteworthy offensive addition. With the dust now settled, it's hard to look back on the offseason with any sort of displeasure. There was one ace out there, and the Twins chance was always a long shot. They added significant pitching in the bullpen, grabbed a good arm for the rotation, and added a couple of fliers along the way. While the division, including the Cleveland Indians, got worse, Minnesota retained it's talent and added pieces. The American League is going to be tough in 2018, with teams like the Yankees an Angels both getting better. For Minnesota, the Postseason may have to come through their own division, and you have to like how they positioned themselves for this season and beyond. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In the season ahead, Joe Mauer may be looking at one of the most important campaigns of his entire career. Yes, he’s got three batting titles and an MVP to his name, but it’s 2018 that has some very real story lines awaiting their resolution. What will Mauer bring to the table? Will he be back? Should the Twins want him? All are very real questions, and the answers could go a long way to cementing the living legend’s legacy.At first base, Joe Mauer has reinvented himself on the diamond. Despite being an offensive juggernaut behind the dish, he was also more than adept with the glove. After the brain injury forced him into a new role, he very nearly grabbed his first Gold Glove at a new position a year ago (and deserved to win). That progression at first base has a four year arc now, and it’s worth speculating what’s to come in the year ahead. Across just over 1,000 innings a season ago, Mauer posted career bests in DRS (7), UZR (7.1), RngR (3.9), and UZR/150 (9.1). He came in as better than virtually every first baseman not named Brandon Belt in all categories, and his 61.5% conversion rate on plays with an expected success rate of 10-40% paced MLB first basemen. In short, his 4th year was his best at the new position, and despite being 34 years-old, he didn’t appear to be slowing in the field. When stepping into the batter’s box, things followed a similar narrative a year ago. His .801 OPS was a high water mark dating back to 2013, and the .305 AVG was the first time rising above that plateau since the same season. After dipping to a .267 AVG and .733 OPS over the past three seasons, Mauer had rebounded nicely. Getting in 141 games for Paul Molitor last season, Mauer continued to be a cornerstone of a team that made a postseason run, and kept things interesting in the AL Central. He’s played at least 130 games each of the past three seasons, and has played 140 or more twice. It’s reasonable, and also visible, that Mauer is better with regular rest, but also not hard to see that he’s capable of producing on more than a rotational basis. For 2018, there are a couple of reasons to dissect the notes above. In relation to his defense, a Gold Glove could go a long ways toward putting a final stamp on his Cooperstown resume. Mauer would be only the third player ever to win the award at two positions, and he’d be the first catcher to do so. The resume could also be bolstered by another high-average season, something that holds less weight in the game but has long been a hat-hanging opportunity for the Minnesota native. Outside of personal gain, there’s also plenty to take away from where both the Twins and Joe go from here. On the last year of his 8yr./$184m. deal, both sides will have a decision to make prior to the 2019 season. For Mauer, it will come down to whether or not he wants to continue playing at the age of 36. Minnesota will be positioned to easily accommodate a short-term deal, at a significantly reduced rate, and the evaluation of how the player fits will likely determine the extent of the offer. In the current competitive window, the season ahead should also help to paint a picture of how integral Mauer may be as the Twins look to dive deep into the postseason. Although Miguel Sano is probably destined for first base at some point, will the defensive downgrade be immediately worth transitioning to? Is Kennys Vargas going to be a part of the equation, or will Brent Rooker be given a look? Contingency plans will have to be evaluated as Mauer, whether returning or not, is in a position to begin the transition to his eventual replacement. In short, the 2018 Twins have plenty of intrigue coming off of a season that saw them kick down the door to the winning ways that lie ahead. On an individual level however, Mauer may be among the most must monitored names in the 162 games that lie ahead. It’s been 14 years of watching what amounts to a living legend, and Minnesota fans may not see something as good as Mauer has been for quite some time. Keeping an eye on what indicators tell us is next will be can’t-miss viewing all season long. No matter how the story ends, the chapters with Joe Mauer in a Minnesota Twins uniform have been a great read. If 2017 is any indicator, planning the epilogue right now may be a bit premature. Molitor and the 25-man need Joe, and if 2018 trends in the same direction as a year ago, Twins Territorians are in for a treat again. Click here to view the article

Valentine's Day is here, and the highlight is simply that the Minnesota Twins have begun their first workout. While the Hallmark holiday suggests you go all out for those you love today, pitchers and catchers are active on the diamond in Fort Myers. Rather than get all sappy or dole out presents, I thought it a fun idea to check out some Twins possibilities I love to take place in 2018. Looking back at the year that was in 2017, and what numbers a handful of Twins players came up with, here's a look into some projections before Vegas sets their marks. While these aren't true over unders, as I'll be looking solely at marks I believe are able to be eclipsed, the same general principle remains. Let's get into it: Byron Buxton has his first 20/20 season 20 steals in a full slate is something that Minnesota's centerfielder could likely accomplish running backwards. His elite speed, arguably the best in the game, is more than likely going to swipe 40 bags in the year ahead. It's the homers that are a leap, but I don't think we're diving in too far here. Coming off a season with 16 homers and wasted months, Buxton's true power stroke is real. His 27% hard hit rate has been consistent over the course of his career, and the 14% HR/FB ratio remains relatively static. Buxton's power is probably more predictable than his contact, but it's a gap type drive that produces more line drive longballs. Over the course of his career, multiple 20/20 seasons is something I'd hang my hat on. Miguel Sano hits 35 homers Despite having an incredible amount of power, Sano has yet to surpass second basemen Brian Dozier for the team lead in longballs over the course of a given season. In just 114 games last year, he launched 28, and that came on the heels of a 25 homer output the year prior. Sano is going to miss time at the beginning of the year due to a likely suspension, but I'd imagine it'll be 30 games or less. Coming off a leg surgery, it should give him extra time to ramp up and get conditioning to where it needs to be. As a regular in the field, Sano is probably going to be up against it on a yearly basis when asked to contribute for 162 games. As he trends closer to that number however, expect the moonshots to skyrocket. Max Kepler arrives with an .800 OPS Call it a breakout, but don't call it a breakthrough. The talent has been there for Max Kepler, and it's time he puts it all together. While he's scuffled at times against lefties even dating back to the minors, 2017 was an abysmal showing. Kepler shouldn't be relegated to a platoon player, but everything needs to continue developing for that idea to be pushed aside. Over the last two years, Kepler's .734 and .737 OPS has shown little growth, but the .947 OPS across 112 Double-A games prior to his promotion in 2015 can't be ignored. Kepler has the potential to be a Christian Yelich type player, which is a strong combination of power and average. At 25 years-old, and two full major league seasons under his belt, the time is now. Jose Berrios goes sub 3.50 ERA but over 9.0 K/9 Gaining on 50 big league starts, Jose Berrios has yet to show what the best version of himself looks like. As a 23 year-old a season ago, he posted a 3.89 ERA along with an 8.6 K/9 and a 3.84 FIP. Those numbers are already impressive, but there was still command issues that reared their head, and a couple of clunkers that raised the overall water level. Another offseason of refinement, and his first big league season from the get go, should boost Berrios into another level. He'll end up taking over the title as the Twins ace this season, and seeing him post some of the best numbers since Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana should absolutely be the expectation. Stephen Gonsalves arrives, and sticks This offseason, Thad Levine has commented that the goal with both Gonsalves and Fernando Romero is for them not to yo-yo. The organization doesn't want either pitcher coming up to make spot starts, or see promotions and demotions in less than ideal succession. While there's a lot to like with Adalberto Mejia getting an extended leash this year, the back portion of the Twins rotation still leaves plenty to be desired. Phil Hughes' contract affords him some time, but the impressive lefty has been knocking on the door for some time. Gonsalves probably isn't getting his shot early (unless the door opens on its own), but I expect him to pitch his way up by late summer. Although he may not have ace potential, his stuff profiles with an ability to be a consistently reliable arm every fifth day for some time to come. Whether enjoying Valentine's Day or not, there's more than a handful of things to love about the 2018 Minnesota Twins, and baseball officially being back is chief among them. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I guess I'm not sure Navarreto backs up Castro any time soon, but he is a good defender. That said, I don't see Garver as poorly as your comment suggests, but maybe I'm reading it wrong. As a backup and platoon partner for Castro, I think it's a strong fit and am a big Garver guy.

It's back, baseball is finally back. On February 13 the Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers officially report to Fort Myers for Spring Training, and the club will hold it's first workout on Valentine's Day. With position players largely following them, and expected to arrive en masse shortly, it's time to take a look at a few storylines worth monitoring over the exhibition slate. Coming off of a Postseason berth, and a Wild Card appearance, Paul Molito's squad is looking for an opportunity to take the next step. With the young core another year older, they should be expected to carry an even larger part of the load. While results can be scrutinized and picked apart in Grapefruit League action, it's what takes place beyond the box score that's generally the most telling. Those scenarios are what highlight the early slate, and that's what we'll take a look at below: Does Kennys Vargas survive the roster crunch? Currently slotted in as the backup first basemen and rotational bench bat, Vargas is out of options for the Minnesota Twins. The power stroke is very real for Vargas, but he's fallen a bit short when putting it all together. After an .833 OPS across 47 sporadic games in 2016, Vargas dipped back to a .758 OPS across 78 sporadic outings in 2017. In 2018, it's do or die time, but it may already be too late. You have to go back to 2015 to find what I think may be a turning point in Vargas' production. After making the roster out of the gate, Vargas slumped mightily through April. In 12 games from May 1-17 though, he put forth a .956 OPS and was among Minnesota's hottest hitters. With just two homers through that time period however, Terry Ryan set him back to Triple-A searching for power. Since that point, Vargas has seemed to settle in, and his opportunities have been limited at best. In a reserve role, his bat has to be consistently ready to go, and the glove needs work. Right now, the Twins probably don't have anyone ready to come in and take his job, but it's hardly a given that they don't find a suitor by the end of March. Grossman, Granite, or your best guess? Looking at how the 25 man is shaping up from a 1,000 foot view right now, it appears Minnesota will carry just four true outfielders. With Robbie Grossman being extended a new contract for 2018, he's the front runner for the designated hitter and rotational outfield role. While his performance wasn't abysmal in the grass a season ago, 2016 could rear it's head at any moment. There's no doubt that the position is Grossman's to lose, but the emergence of other names is a real possibility. On the 40 man roster, only Zack Granite is on the outside looking in among the outfield group. His .611 OPS in his first 40 MLB games leaves plenty to be desired, but should also be expected to rise. At the minor league level, Granite was an average hitter, and also an on-base asset. Postin a .347 OBP at Double-A, and a .392 OBP last season at Triple-A, his speed was allowed to be unleashed on the basepaths. Grossman has more pop than Granite does, but expecting Zack to contribute at a similar OBP level is hardly a reach. The dark horse in this competition is LaMonte Wade, and while he has yet to play above Double-A, he could make a big leap sooner rather than later. Rotation, staff, and the Alston advantage. At this moment, the Twins have yet to address their most glaring need of the offseason, a starting pitcher. By the time the team breaks from Fort Myers, I expect that scenario to have been handled. The Twins will be rolling with Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, an acquisition, and a question mark when the regular season opens. The 5th spot in the rotation is up for grabs, and while Phil Hughes' contract will afford him first crack, the emergence of Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, or a host of other names would be welcomed competition. The bullpen has been shored up, and Addison Reed was one of the best gets of the offseason across the entire landscape of the league. New pitching coach Garvin Alston will begin to put his philosophies on display both in game and off the field of play. Watching the bullpen take shape, as well as its usage and construction will be worth monitoring. As the Twins seek more strikeouts, and a pitching staff that climbs the league ladder, it will be extremely important for Alston to make a more significant mark than his predecessor. Homegrown gems making their mark. Each year, there seems to be a few players that come in without a big league job, that end up leaving a lasting impression. Looking at the group of 13 non-roster invitees for 2018, there's a trio of homegrown prospects that have me intrigued. Starting on the mound, you have to look at reliever Jake Reed. The hard thrower was left unprotected and went undrafted in the Rule 5 draft. He has the makings of a strikeout reliever with strong velocity, and an ability to kick the door in to the highest level. He got just 4.0 IP during spring training last year allowing four runs on six hits with a 3/2 K/BB ratio. His season also started with an injury occurred during the last game in Fort Myers. A strong showing could put him right back on the radar for an early season promotion. In the infield, you look no further than former 1st round pick Nick Gordon. Heavily scrutinized as a shortstop, Gordon has yet to be pushed over to second base. He'll get his first real big league test in March this year, and should spend the majority of the season at Triple-A. After a hot start at Double-A, his season took a dive down the stretch and he posted a .749 OPS when things were said and done. How he handles big league pitching this spring, as well as what he shoes with the glove, could go a long ways to give us an idea of what and how he'll contribute for the Twins. Wrapping up the group is a guy behind the plate that deserves more attention, Brian Navarreto. While the bat has lagged significantly for the 2013 6th round pick, he's been great as a defender. Across 127 stolen base attempts in his 290 games behind the dish in the minors, he's thrown out a ridiculous 50% of runners. Regarded as a strong receiver and a trustworthy game manager, Navrreto will get a chance to showcase his worth as a potential big league backup down the road. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

*You're And no... The .836 OPS is flashy but the .290 AVG comes out of nowhere, and 27 homers is quite the shock for a guy that had 23 through his first 200+ MLB games. I have been high on Rosario since his early days as a prospect, and looked at his breakout potential prior to 2016. That said, teams willing to deal for him are going to point towards his 38% chase rate and 12% swinging strike percentage. Those marks are considerably better than his career norms, but they still need to be improved upon and substantiated.

I don't know that Rosario has much trade value, but I'd absolutely want to move him first. I like Archer a lot, but think it'd take a king's ransom to acquire him.

I'd prefer to trade Rosario, but while his value may be high based upon numeric perception, you'd have to bee fooling a lot of front offices. I don't believe anyone oversees him being ripe for regression. Brent Rooker is definitely a name that could be in consideration that you left out. I think Kepler is a nice piece, and has a long and productive big league career ahead of him. I agree that it has to be a balancing act though.

I'm really high on Kepler, but I don't disagree with you. The reality is that you have to give up talent to get it in return. I'd be far from shocked if Rooker is with the Twins by the end of this year, and while I see him more as a 1B, he could hold down LF and move Rosario over.

Over the weekend, the Minnesota Twins missed out on Yu Darvish as he joined Chris Gimenez and the Chicago Cubs. While I feel a bit disappointed Derek Falvey and Thad Levine didn't position themselves better with a six year offer, it's now a moot point. At this juncture a pivot to available free agents and the trade market has become a new reality. On the latter point, Minnesota's most available asset seems to be Max Kepler. It's worth wondering though, is that a good thing? A season ago, Kepler put up his highest OPS in the big league (.737), and got in his first full major league season. Coming into the 2016 season, Kepler debuted on all three (Baseball America, MLB, and Baseball Prospectus) Top 100 prospect lists, and ranked 30th, 44th, and 60th respectively. After putting together a steady upward trend in the minors, the belief was there that Minnesota had a real big league talent on their hands. While the .737 OPS is more than serviceable, it also leaves a bit to be desired. What I'm nearly certain about, is that Kepler is capable of harnessing that ability. In 2017, Kepler became a platoon player down the stretch. With the Twins in the midst of a postseason race, Paul Molitor decided he simply couldn't have a player with a .453 OPS against left-handed pitching garnering significant at bats. Despite the .828 OPS against righties, only two of Kepler's 19 homers came off of southpaws, and he racked up a 40/7 K/BB ratio. Looking back to 2016, the numbers improve but hardly jump off the page. In his rookie year, Kepler compiled a .595 OPS against lefties with two of his 17 homers and a 34/10 K/BB. In short, Kepler owns a 74/17 K/BB against same-handed pitchers in the big leagues, and he's hit just four of his 36 longballs off of them. You'd be hard pressed to argue Kepler deserves more than a platoon situation with those numbers (though I did find it frustrating at times in 2017). What's also fair to suggest is that he's a 25 year-old unfinished product who's shown an ability much better than what the big leagues have seen. Having never played Triple-A, Kepler's two best seasons in the minors came at Double-A in 2015, and High-A in 2014. Against lefties in those two campaigns he posted an .863 OPS (1 HR 15/12 K/BB) and a .691 OPS (1 HR 26/3 K/BB) respectively. The Double-A numbers are inflated some due to a season with 13 triples, but they are also buoyed by an approach that saw him walk more times than he struck out for the first time in his big league career. During 2017, Kepler slightly decreased his chase rate, with slightly increasing his swinging strike percentage. His contact slipped slightly, but was on par with his career averages. His hard hit rate remained static, and the only notable dip among batted balls was a 3% drop in HR/FB ratio. What could be an untapped area of improvement is one of contention for Kepler, his launch angle. In 2016, the average on base hits fell at 10.4 degrees. That number came in at just 8.8 degrees a year ago. Parker Hageman of Twins Daily actually looked in depth on this topic as it pertain to Kepler last March. Kepler's approach is to line the ball, with backspin, or get right with ground balls. With the power and stroke he has, a heightened launch angle would likely bring a good deal more success. What should be somewhat common sense is that a 25 year-old, highly regarded prospect, is far from a finished product. For Kepler to maximize his output in Minnesota however, the results will first need to change against pitchers attacking him from his side of the plate. There's a few keys for him to get there, with contact and launch angle being two of the avenues. What wouldn't be shocking is if it came together relatively quickly, and the German born big leaguer had a breakout season in front of him. After making his way through Elizabethton at age 19, it took him stops at Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers before truly settling into his own. It wasn't until 2015 as a 22 year-old at Double-A that Kepler posted his first full season .800 OPS on the farm. That's hardly a knock on ability as much as it is a highlight of a growing process. Entering his third season with the Twins, and just the second as a regular out of the gate, seeing another leap forward would hardly be a miracle. That's where the crossroads of what to do next comes in. Although there's still ample arms available on the market, Minnesota has been heavily connected to the trade market. With names like Chris Archer, Julio Teheran, and Jake Odorizzi among those thrown about, Kepler could be an enticing return. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have to decide what they see going forward however. In any trade scenario, you're going to have to give to get, but is the breakout coming for Max and just how big will it be. For me, I'm still a bigger believer of Kepler's long term future than I am of Eddie Rosario. Kepler's trajectory suggests one of growth, while Rosario's has some gaping holes that can continue to be exploited. If Minnesota is to deal Max for pitching, I'd hope the return is also substantial and that he's viewed as a cornerstone piece. Zack Granite and LaMonte Wade are both nice fallback options, but I'd hesitate to put them in the same realm as Kepler projects to be. With just over a month until meaningful games get started, I assume we'll have clarity which direction this narrative falls soon enough. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It's not a blueprint as much as that operating philosophy is a way to not be stuck in the middle. The Twins not capitalizing on the growth of their core is akin to the Pirates almost but never quite run.

The Minnesota Twins, and really baseball as a whole, continue to be in a standoff with free agents across the sport. While some players are balking at long-term deals (yes, you Eric Hosmer) or wanting unrealistic sums of money (yes, you J.D. Martinez and Jake Arrieta), the reality is that players still should end up being signed. For the hometown team no unsigned player is more important than Yu Darvish.At this point there’s been so much written about the fit between the two sides. Jay Jaffe recently noted that Darvish makes too much sense for Minnesota, and MLB.com’s Richard Justice put the Twins atop the list of teams needing to make a move (with Darvish being the suggestion). If Darvish to the Twins were to fall into the “beating a dead horse” category, we would’ve entered the sick and twisted level of punishment a long time ago. So, what’s the hang up? On his latest version of The Scoop podcast, Darren Wolfson noted the Twins have made Darvish a formal offer. The belief is that it’s of the four or five year variety, and that they aren’t keen on the idea of going to a sixth year (more on that in a minute). Also, while Chris Gimenez is now trying to recruit Darvish to Chicago, Mike Napoli believes it’s a matter of when (not if) he’ll be with Minnesota. The former Rangers teammate is playing an active role in recruiting the star pitcher to Thad Levine’s new club. Now back to that sixth year and Darvish bit. Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming had a couple of noteworthy comments regarding Yu recently on Twitter. First and foremost, if the sixth year is what would get the deal done for the Twins and they decide to forego that opportunity, it would be a huge egg-on-face scenario. Despite lacking the ability to play in the big boy pool a vast majority of the time, Minnesota finds itself with a prime opportunity. Positioning themselves to offer something competitors can/will not in order to get a monumental deal done would like a big whiff. Looking at what the market has to offer, Tom delves a bit deeper. A year from now, the free agent pitching crop isn’t going to yield much more than what Minnesota currently has in front of them. While Clayton Kershaw should headline that class, he’s going to be nowhere within the Twins means (especially with Los Angeles and New York attempting to position for a big spend). That leaves a group headlined by Dallas Keuchel, and rounded out by names like Patrick Corbin and Garret Richards. Finally and maybe most importantly given the factors at play, Mr. Froemming quips “If the Twins just want to be a cute little small market team that builds from within that's fine. That's actually smart. But then you need to do things like trade away Brian Dozier.” This point makes a bunch of sense as well, and is akin to how the Tampa Bay Rays have operated. In flipping names like David Price, they’ve recouped controllable talent and tried to win outside of free agency. However, the crossroads for the Twins to pick a side is right in front of them. As has been dissected plenty this offseason, Minnesota views a perfect storm for Darvish to end up in the Twin Cities. A bad division, prospects graduated to regulars, and a payroll begging to be expanded upon. If the Twins are not ready or able to take the plunge on Darvish at this juncture, there’s probably never going to be a time in which they are willing to make this sort of leap. There are only a few times in an organization's cycle of competitiveness that point directly at a certain line of decision-making. For Minnesota, this is it. As I outlined here recently, there’s no denying that clubs are backing away from long-term big-money deals. The reality is that the back end of those deals leaves you significant opportunity to be exposed when a player begins to fall off a cliff. That being said, it also has to be applied on a case-by-case basis. While there are any number of players available in a given offseason, top-of-the-rotation pitchers rarely hit the market surrounded by ideal circumstances. Should the Twins land Darvish on a six-year deal, it’s fair to assume that the final (and possibly even the fifth year) would be a wash. That being said, there are more than a few things in their corner here. First and foremost is the commodity that they’re starting with. Darvish is an elite level pitcher now. Assuming he falls off as time goes on, him going from a 3.70 ERA (16/17) to a 4.50 ERA and fifth starter at age 35-36 is hardly a massive failure. By starting with a higher talent level out of the gate, the expectation should be that the bottom wouldn’t drop out as deeply. Second, payroll being what it is now, and should continue to be, positions the move well. Although Minnesota hasn’t kept up with inflation for years, they also haven’t been in a scenario in which supplementing the internal roster with outside talent would’ve made much difference. Before the emergence of young and controllable talent hit the big leagues, spending would’ve been at a time to do little more than tread water. Now with the roster where it is, 2018 should represent an organizational record in payroll, and that should continue to hold strong for the next several years. Finally, Minnesota has been waiting for this opportunity for years. No, not the opportunity to sign Darvish, but instead the ability to “go for it,” with names like Buxton and Sano already in place. After having a top farm system for a number of years, those prospects have graduated. If by the time Yu Darvish is 36 or 37, the Twins have yet to accomplish anything, they’ll also be watching both Sano and Buxton stare 30 in the face. At that point, they’ll be established veterans on a roster waiting on the emergence of players headlined by Royce Lewis. This current core of graduated prospects was what the Twins needed to supplement, and the time to do so is now. At the end of the day, Yu Darvish gives the Twins an opportunity to play in a space they so rarely have been able to. They can bring in an elite and necessary talent, while pushing them forward from a year in which they showed emergence. Seeing future salary relief in 2019 and beyond, Falvey and Levine should be able to continue to pump external talent into their established squad, and it could result in the best opportunity for a World Series run in years. It’s hard to suggest that any one offseason is defined solely on the shoulders of a singular player, but it’s equally hard to understate just how valuable the addition of the former Rangers ace would be. Four years, five years, or six years, find the competitive advantage necessary to get a "Yes" and take the plunge. Click here to view the article

I've brought up Valencia before, but totally get him being off limits. The guy is a dink, and there's a reason he can't stay put anywhere. Sano did stupid things but isn't a clubhouse cancer, they aren't even remotely the same.

Sure sounds like Mike Napoli is going to be a Twins based upon Darren Wolfson's latest podcast. He's a better fielder than Vargas, and probably a better bad. It makes Robbie the 4th, but Granite can probably push him out.

Morrison and Duda are both intriguing names if you're going for more of a DH/1B type, I agree