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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Hughes FIPs this decade: 4.25 4.58 (half season) 4.46 4.50 Then last year 2.65. That's a huge difference. More than a run and a half lower than his BEST season this decade and almost 2 runs better than his past couple years. I think it's unlikely that we can expect to see such a huge difference in performance from the rest of his performance this decade. We all want that to continue but that FIP ranked him like 6th in the majors. He's not the 6th best pitcher in the majors. He can continue to be very good but what would be sad is if he went to somewhere in the middle of what he had done prior to this year and what he did last year and people got disappointed because they were convinced he'd maintain that level of awesome based on one season.
  2. jimmer
    The question is, can he sustain these new mechanics and approach? I heard the same kind of comments about Suzuki's approach to batting last year and he went right back to having the same kind of results he had been having. In fact, we get these same kind of comments any time a player suddenly significantly improves upon his career norm. Most of the time, players fall back into old habits. So, I don't think believing he'll regress is unwarranted or due to not paying close enough attention. We'll see if 2014 was an outlier or the start of a new trend for Hughes. I'm guessing he regresses some if only for the fact his season was so awesome, it'd be hard for too many pitchers to repeat that. That includes pitchers who have a longer track record of very good than him.
  3. jimmer
    'Baseball Prospectus has developed metrics that measure, in essence, the extent to which catchers are responsible for the calls that go their way. When you consider how many times a good framer influences at-bats, and how many runs that can save during the course of a season, you see how truly valuable he is to his team. Now that's a great catcher.'--http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/11127248/how-catcher-framing-becoming-great-skill-smart-teams-new-york-yankees-espn-magazine
  4. jimmer
    Suzuki was rated as one of the worst framers in baseball last year and his unsustainable first half hitting predictably came back down to his normal poor level in the last couple months. I would hope his job isn't secure in the least.
  5. jimmer
    I think it's possible to be acknowledged as a good, well thought of player, and still be under-rated.
  6. jimmer
    I think it's possible he's overrated by many Twins fans AND under-rated by baseball fans in general. IMO, his talent lies somewhere in-between.
  7. jimmer
    Without digging too deep, perhaps because it's a comparable stat and, most of the time the worst OF are in LF (even moreso when he was playing) so his competition for comparison was worse? Nowadays Alex Gordon is a nice exception, as was Trout when he played there. Plus, if I remember correctly, his arm wasn't great, at least not what you would expect from a RF. I often wonder how losing the ball in the Metrodome ceiling effected his LF numbers. That was often comical :-)
  8. jimmer
    Unless I'm reading it wrong, seems to me that ball hit high on the wall wouldn't negatively affect the RF UZR, since it's not catchable, UZR would just not account for the play at all, like it never happened. Like walks don't affect a BA.
  9. jimmer
    From Fangraphs: The data also tells us if a ball hits off an outfield wall (on the fly) and whether, in the judgment of the “stringer,” it was catchable or not. If not, then the play is ignored. If a “wall ball” was catchable, it is treated like any other batted ball at that distance, with no regard for whether it hit the wall or not.
  10. jimmer
    So you're saying that after acquiring the worst defensive RF in baseball over the last two years, we should expect his numbers to be even worse because of TF's RF wall? :-)
  11. jimmer
    Thanks stringer. Yes, quite a few do, and they are usually pitchers whose defenses are consistently above average, cause it works both ways. A good defense will often help a pitcher's ERA and a bad one will hurt it. Glavine was a very good example, Shields the last four years is a more current one. We can't separate defense from pitcher's performance. They are intertwined. We were last in defensive efficiency according to baseball prospectus and when we take into account ballpark, we were 29th. Fangraphs has us at 27th. We all watched the team, we shouldn't be surprised by any of that. Because of that, we shouldn't be surprised our team ERA was so high, though the pitchers sure contributed.
  12. jimmer
    My FIP argument doesn't change by using Pino and Swarzak. It's the same argument, just to different levels A 4.30 FIP isn't horrible. It means his ERA, based on what he did, should have been 4.30, but due to really poor defense, his ERA ballooned over 5.00. RA Dickey's FIP was 4.32, yet his ERA was 3.71. No one talks about how horrific he was. Shelby Miller was a key component in a good size trade this offseason, his ERA was 3.74, but his FIP was 4.54. Alfredo Simon, FIP of 4.33, ERA of 3.44, gets praise from most. All pitchers need quality defense. Like I said, he wasn't good for sure, but it's exaggerated as to how bad he, himself, was due to his horrible ERA. Our rotation was pretty close to average in WAR, but due to such a bad defense, our rotation ERA was a full run over the rotation FIP. Also, the injury needs to be taken into account. Nolasco definitely should have revealed it earlier, but it certainly contributed to his poor performance. I like that Nolasco had such a good September (except the dbacks game). He does need to improve though.
  13. jimmer
    If we look at Nolasco's FIP (4.30) instead of ERA, we see he wasn't as bad as many seem to think, though not as good as some thought he might be. He just needs a good defense which is something we didn't have and likely won't have this year either, since it hasn't really been addressed in a positive way this offseason as of yet. Additionally, Hughes was even better than many think.
  14. jimmer
    Jim Pohlad's own words leads one to believe Ryan has serious job security. Perhaps his own words and actions are misleading, but he's given that impression. From an article on ESPN 1500, September 29th 2014, ' After that press conference to announce the contract extension, Twins owner Jim Pohlad said that as long as Ryan would like to be the team's general manager, the job will be his.He has the keys for life.' Ryan said he appreciated the words but wouldn't hold Pohlad to it. Glunn, a moderator here I believe, made a whole post about that interview and said he found that quote interesting:http://twinsdaily.com/topic/15098-interesting-interview-with-terry-ryan/ And as far as the phrase man up, it's a commonly used phrase. Maybe 'own up' is better. Step up might be even better. Pretty much the same thing. And I will say, once again, I'm not saying he should be fired, like some have said. Some have said he doesn't deserve to stay GM, but I'm not one of them I think it's a good thing he has admitted he has some fault in the problems. I stand by the idea that when you know you aren't getting fired, that the owner has basically decided to follow your lead, it is much easier to admit mistakes.
  15. jimmer
    That's a good question. If I was one of the people maddened by it, I might have an answer. Doesn't change the fact it's easier to man up when you have the kind of job security he has.
  16. jimmer
    Media hasn't turned on Hoyer cause they hardly acknowledge he has the GM position. They look to Epstein who is new to the organization and has won a couple W Series, the first breaking the media created 'curse'. They likely give him the benefit of the doubt, not unreasonably. It likely has a shelf-life though. In any event, I NEVER SAID he doesn't deserve to stay GM.
  17. jimmer
    Even accounting for misinterpretation of my post, which I don't really get since it makes assumptions on my reasoning for not thinking Ryan should keep his job (something I've never said) by saying things like , 'And if you're going to say "no, he was here under Bill Smith" then ... ugh. And if you're going to say "He left the cupboard bare for Smith" relook at the cupboard first.' Those assumptions would be based on practically no posting history on this site as to wear I stand on Ryan. No matter what, it certainly didn't warrant the kind of response I got from gunnarthur in his second part of his post. Additionally, even with your belief that Ryan may have acted differently if in another market, that's no quarantee those moves work giving him deserved extreme job security he currently has. On top of that, it still doesn't change my actual point, that job security would likely not be so secure in a bigger more scrutinized market if losing like we have been was occuring. Your argument seems to be just be about how he would do different things in a bigger market, the team therefore would be better, and that he'd still have as strong of job security as he has here. I doubt that's true and even if it was, the job security comment I had also referred to ownership being pressured by big market media because of losing. Easier to have job security when winning.
  18. jimmer
    It has to do with pressure from local media types (media markets) that put pressure on teams by way of asking hard questions and writing critical articles for public consumption that can make owners make decisions in personnel they may not feel need to be made to calm the negative publicity. And that's just local reporters. There are markets that get much more national attention as well that might play to the fans displeasure of a losing team more to put pressure on a team. Twins don't usually get that kind of press locally and certainly not nationally. Minnesota reporters are a pretty softball-tossing bunch, with few exceptions and even the critical ones aren't normally overly so, even with all the recent losing. So having that kind of media market to deal with compared to many others, an owner is more likely to stick with someone they believe is up to the task because they aren't always getting slammed by reporter after reporter.
  19. jimmer
    Was there somewhere in my post that suggested he didn't DESERVE the job security he has? Or did I just point out that when you have job security like that it is much easier to take the blame?
  20. jimmer
    I doubt Amaro has the same job security. Just cause he hasn't been fired YET, there has still been rumblings. On top of that, in his 6 year reign, they've only been bad twice and haven't lost 90 or more once.
  21. jimmer
    It's probably easier to take responsibility when you have job security like he does. Job security he likely wouldn't have in any market that stressed winning.
  22. jimmer
    People like to compare Raines to Rickey, but there's another person who might be a better fit for comparison. Raines finished his career with a .385 OBP, a .425 SLG and a 123 OPS+ in 10,359 PA Gwynn finished his career with a .388 OBP, a 459 SLG and a 132 OPS+ in 10,232 PA Raines scored 1,571 runs and drove in 980 Gwynn scored 1,383 runs and drove in 1,138 Raines stole 808 bases and was caught 146 times Gwynn stole 319 bases and was caught 125 times B-ref WAR has Raines at 66.2, good for 97th all-time. It has Gwynn at 65.3 wins, 102nd place all-time. the one real difference between him and Raines was hits. Raines had 2,605 hits and Gwynn had 3,141. That’s a difference of 536. However, Raines had 1,330 walks to Gwynn’s 790, a difference of 540.
  23. jimmer
    Stark just did a very good article about Delgado called ‘Delgado deserves an apology’. He's talking about how he was booted off the ballot after only one time being on it. It’s a good read. Some good parts: ‘He showed up on the ballot with his 473 homers and .929 career OPS.’ He ‘Hit 30-plus home runs 10 years in a row’. By comparison, ‘Only seven other eligible players in history have even had nine (or more) 30-homer seasons in a row. Four of them — Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mike Schmidt and Eddie Matthews — are in the Hall of Fame.’ The other three are Bonds, Sosa and Palmeiro. ‘Only nine other eligible players have ever had an OPS of .900 or better in at least nine consecutive seasons in which they qualified for the batting title. Seven are in the Hall: Gehrig, Foxx, Schmidt, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial and Mickey Mantle.’ The other two are Bonds and Piazza. Then he compares the careers of Ortiz and Delgado and Delgado grades out about even. Now, Ortiz has the playoff stuff and that should count as Stark says, but it should also matter that Delgado played a position his whole career.
  24. jimmer
    Well, he was better than Tommy John and Kaat. Those two are comparable to each other, with John beinga little better and Mussina being quite a bit better than both. Problem is when you let lesser pitchers in, some even first ballot, it makes it harder to say a guy like Mussina shouldn't be in. That's what has happened. Mussina's biggest problem is that he was never flashy, he just went about doing his job professionally and didn't push for the spotlight, but he was as good as Smoltz if not better, better than Glavine and better than many others that are in.
  25. jimmer
    Raines' biggest problem is being compared to Henderson so often. I think that should be a point in his favor, not the other way around. I mean if you're good enough to have that comparison, that's awesome. A similar situation will likely occur again soon, because Hoffman may go through the same thing because of comparisons to Rivera.
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