TRex

I agree, thanks so much for the first-hand report! I wonder how much the two events (Meyer's giving up 4 runs and Beresford's ejection) have to do with each other... I may be 'getting out over my shoes a little', but if the 'Gameday' pitch locations are to be believed, Meyer's first walk (with runners at 1st and 2nd and 1 out) probably left him shaking his head... and it's not too surprising that the following sequence occurred: I would imagine James had a pretty good view of these pitches and wonder if it had something to do with his chirping.

DOH! I lost my update on Walker last night... the highlights included the following points: 1) I agree that Walker should be the Twin's ML hitter of the week. 2) In 5 games during the week of 4/21 to 4/27, he was 9/22 with 1D, 1T, 5HR and 16RBI (.409/.480/1.227; OPS 1.707!). 3) He walked 3 times and struck out only 4 times.His torrid week has rocketed him to the top of the MWL in HR and RBI (as of 4/28). 4) His strikeout rate for the season is now <20% (19.2%), which is more than acceptable.

I understand they may be the same size, and you are looking at a 'best case scenario; but I don't think you can say that Ortiz had Walker's 'significant vulnerabilities in his swing'. Ortiz hit .332 with an OBP of .403 as a 19 year old in rookie ball and at 20 hit .322 with an OBP of .390 in the MWL.

I think you are getting a little too hung up on the exact age... Trout graduated high school at 17 yr and 9 mo and Machado at 17 yr 10 mo. Buxton graduated at 18 yr 6 mo. Maybe this difference would be important if you are talking about international prospects that sign at 16, but the main point we are debating for the three prospects is the 24 months after being drafted. Machado also followed the Trout promotion time line... After signing he started off in the GCL and was promoted to the NY/Penn (only 2 and 7 games, respectively). The following year he started off in the Sally, and was promoted to high-A on June 23 (two weeks ahead of Trout ). He started his third season in AA, and was promoted to Balt. after playing 108 games. Perhaps we could break it down to games played in Rookie/Low-A/High-A/AA... Trout 39/86/50/91 Machado 9/38/63/109 Mauer 32/110/62/73 And in terms of challenging these young kids, remember that Trout's initial call up did not go well (OPS<.700), and he had to start the next year in AAA. What happened next is, of course, legendary. However, it appears even Mike Trout himself can't repeat 2012, so what makes us think Buck can?

Also don't forget that the Twins were a playoff team and had AJ at catcher when Mauer was in AA. You weren't going to promote Mauer to play DH, and you weren't going to move AJ from catcher mid-season. Buxton likely won't have to worry about joining a playoff contender, and outfield is much more malleable than catcher.

In regards to Rosario's defense, I just remember an interview Ruesse and Mackey did with Dougie Mientkiewicz in which he predicted that Eddy would be the opening day 2nd baseman for the Twins IN 2014! He didn't offer the same prediction for Sano (and wasn't asked), so I don't think he wasn't just blowing smoke...

Obviously I started writing this a few hours ago and didn't hit refresh, but... I think we mis-remember the Mike Trout time line sometimes... He actually spent 81 games at Cedar Rapids in '10, and ONLY moved to high A for the final 50 games. He did not receive a promotion to AA, and his stats were somewhat pedestrian by CAL standards (his .821 OPS would not have ranked in the top 20). He started the '11 season in AA, and played there for 91 games before making his MLB debut after the All-Star game. This is the most optimistic blueprint for Buxton... so why are we discussing AA? And why are we boarding the promotion train bound for high A before 81 games (which I imagine was the MWL All Star break)?

Any chance he is chosen to play in the Future's Game ala Trout in 2010? Or perhaps they will hold him back for Future's Game next year. That way he gets to play at Target Field ( ;)and they can save money by not having to fly him back to the minors;) )!

Adam Walker may just be a slow starter... After signing in 2012, his first 30 games in E-town resulted in a not-quite terrible line of (data thanks to GGR): 30/122 4D/2T/4HR 24RBI 43K 8BB .245/.292/.409 However, from that point on he HIT his stride: 28/110 3D/2T/10HR 21RBI 33K 11W for a triple/slash of .254/.322/.590 As you can see, the power was up and he showed improved plate discipline (although it was still not good). Finally, as noted above, Walker's hot streak continued into the post-season where he batted .375/.483/.792, 6 G, 9-for-24, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R, 3 SB and was named the MVP. Similarly, while his first 7 games in the MWL resulted in an unimpressive line of: 5/25 with 2D and no T or HR .200/.259/.259 he has been on fire for his last 10 games, at: 13/38 with 1D/1T/3HR .342/.390/.658 He is not on any of the leader boards thus far (4/26), but if will be soon if he keeps up this hot streak!

:tongue in cheek: I knew Joe Mauer's hitting prowess was over-rated... While we made a big deal of him getting 4 hits in back-to-back games, someone who's truly gifted at baseball (Leachman) gets 7 hits in back-to-back games! Forget the promotion to high-A, can he catch in the big leagues?

I think it will really be interesting how clubs go about 'trading' the International signing bonus money... and don't forget that the 'competitive balance' draft picks can also be traded. As one example, would the Marlins (who are always active in the international market) be willing to trade the 37th pick of the draft (and the ~$1,400,000 slot) for $1.4 million on the international market? Sounds like a nice way for the pitching-starved Twins to take a chance on a polished college pitcher (ala Scott Baker).

Question for the group... Do you think there is any chance the Twins will try to build up his innings and give him a try at starting next year? He doesn't have much mileage on his arm, and it's not like he was a failed starter in college. I like that they are giving him a chances to pitch 2 innings, I wonder if he maintains the speed on his fastball?

You had my hackles up after comparing Buxton favorably to Mauer (who hit .400 for E-ton the year before)... but that last statement packs a lot of weight. I still like the pacing angle brought up earlier in that what is your most optimistic goal for advancing Buxton? If it is just to get to FM, why promote him before mid-season... if it is to get to AA, how are you not going to call him up in Sept. if he is playing well?

In regards to Meyer, I think his ground ball rate is also really revealing. Tonight he got 12 GB outs and NO AO! This following his first two starts of 5:2 and 8:1. He must really be staying tall and 'pitching downhill'. Are there any MLB pitchers who combine a high octane fastball with such high ground ball tendencies? I also have to take the blame for the CR loss as I jinxed Rogers by mentioning that he had a no-hitter in the 5th... he didn't record another out! I wonder if he tired or what happened.

Here are some pertinent (and excellent) posts from last year's Adam Walker adopt-a-prospect page: alarp33: Adam Walker Pos: 1B/LF Ht./Wt.: 6'5"/ 225lbs B/T: R/R Drafted: 2012 - 97th overall out of Jacksonville University Junior Season: Hit .343 w/ a .426 OBP, 14 doubles, 12 home runs and surprisingly for a guy his size 19 stolen bases From MLB Scouting Report: The son of a former NFL running back, Walker looks the part of a future slugger. The question is if he has the baseball skills to get there. There's no question about his pop at the plate. He might have as much raw power as anyone in the Draft class, with some scouts giving him an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also has a very good approach to hitting, though his hitting instincts lag behind. That leaves some wondering if he'll learn to tap into that power consistently enough against advanced pitching. A big, physical specimen, Walker has played both first base and the outfield. His arm is well below average, and while some think he could handle playing left field, his defensive home is up in the air. He draws comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton, both in body type and power potential, but there is some concern that he's a Ferrari with a VW engine. Will begin his Professional career in Elizabethton lightfoot789: http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp...=.jsp&sid=l120 MILB Top Offensive Player in the Post Season for Appalachian League Seemed to figure it out at the right time. Appalachian League Adam Walker, Elizabethton (.375/.483/.792, 6 G, 9-for-24, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R, 3 SB) After a slow start, Walker finished the regular season tied for the league lead with 14 home runs. He didn't let up in the playoffs, going deep three more times (and swiping three bases, one shy of his regular-season total) and driving in seven runs in the E-Twins' run to the title. A third-round pick in the 2012 Draft, Walker had hits in each of Elizabethton's six games and fell a triple shy of the cycle in its playoff opener, a 4-0 win at Danville.

Drafted in the 3rd round (97th overall) by the Minnesota Twins in 2012 (signed for $490,400) MiLB site: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=608724 [TABLE=class: bioHead, width: 100%] Adam Walker 38 | RFStatus: Active http://www.milb.com/images/spacer.gif Cedar Rapids Kernels Class A Midwest League MLB Parent Club: Minnesota [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: bioBlock, width: 100%] [/TD][TD=width: 50, align: center] Stats AVG: .286HR: 3RBI: 15SB: 0 Bookmark PlayerFull Name: Adam Walker Born: 10/18/1991 Birthplace: Milwaukee, WI College: Jacksonville Height: 6' 4" Weight: 225 Bats: R Throws: R [/TABLE]

Thanks for the offer, gunnathor, but this may actually work out better. This way we get a fresh analysis rather than just a re-tool!

I missed out on Jorge Polanco, so can I have Adam Brett Walker? (Note to the giant Walker fan from last year... I will be happy to cede him if you ask)

I missed out on Jorge Polanco for 2013, but it seems a waste to not at least have last year's analysis. Hope you don't mind, gunnarthor! [h=2]Jorge Polanco: SS International signing '09 (DOB7/5/93)[/h] Born: July 5, 1993 – San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic Bats: Both Throws: Right Height: 5’11" Weight: 165 Drafted as a SS in the 2009 International class for $700,000 out of the DR by Fred Guerrero. Pro Stats: 2010: Twins DSL 18G / 60AB / .250/.309/.283 1SB/3CS GCL - 34G | 103 AB | .223/.299/.301 | 2SB/4CS 2011: GCL - 51G | 172 AB | .250/.319/.349 | 6SB/4CS 2012: E-ton AppL – 40G / 138 AB / .319/.390/.522 ANALYSIS Pre-2012: When drafted in 2009 at the age of 16 for $700,000, Polanco was the epitome of a Latin American middle infielder. Hailing from the ‘cradle of shortstops’ (San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic), he debuted in the US on the day after his 17th birthday and was the Twins #17 prospect in the 2011 BA Prospect Handbook based on the strength of his ‘top-shelf defensive tools at shortstop, with his actions, range, hands and arm strength all rating above average’. His offense, however, was best described by the old Dominican adage that ‘you can’t walk off the island’! Polanco is a switch hitter with excellent contact skills, and had one of the lowest strikeout rates in his first year in the GCL (2010). That is pretty faint praise, and he returned to the GCL in 2011. His second trip around the circuit also yielded pretty pedestrian numbers (.250/.319/.349) and, even in a very down year for Twins prospects, he dropped to #28 in the 2012 BA Prospect handbook. While BA still lauded his defensive work, they indicated he ‘lacks the strength to repeat his swing or defensive actions over the grind of everyday play’. His career appeared to be stalling out except, as pointed out in Seth’s handbook, in “the last month of the year, he improved to .284/.348/.407 in 81 at-bats”. The BA piece concluded with ‘The Twins think they’ll have a player if Polanco gains strength’. Perhaps the Twins weren’t taking a huge leap of faith thinking an 18 year old from the DR might continue to gain strength, but even they must have been surprised at Polanco’s offensive transformation in 2012. 2012: Even though he was still only 18 years old, Polanco started his third season in Rookie ball (albeit at Elizabethton). While there were pleasant signs of an improving offensive game (.323 average), a familiar theme was that he had only 1 walk and 2 strikeouts in 31 ABs. Then, as though he flipped a switch on his 19th birthday, Jorge started taking a bigger swing (20 SO in 105 AB) and has developed into an offensive FORCE. After having only 2 HR in his first 400 ABs, he has had 4 in his last 70! He currently is sporting a triple-slash line of .319/.390/.522 (ranking in the top-10 in all three categories) and was even named the Appy league player of the week for 7/16! Finally, this offensive explosion does not appear to have come at the cost of his excellent control of the strike zone, as his strikeout rate is still below 1 in 6 AB, and he has managed to keep his walk rate at ~10% despite a 70 point jump in BA. I am amazed that, with all the clamoring by Twins fans about the sad state of minor league middle infielders, Polanco is not mentioned more. He is a true shortstop and was the youngest position player at Elizabethton until Buxton arrived. If he keeps up this level of production, he should crack everyone’s top-20, and is already in my top-10. I can’t wait to read what others (including BA and Seth) have to say about Polanco’s development. It’s always nice to see prospects turning ‘tools’ into ‘skills’!

ummm...... nevermind! Buck is back in the lineup for the second game and comes out of the gate with a single and a double in the big 8-run first inning!

Hey SD, I am surprised you didn't mention Buxton getting hit... I know he stayed in the game, but he did come out when it got out of hand and he isn't in the lineup tonight. Any word on his status?

Maybe I haven't been paying attention, but what has Ozzy done to get the 'not-so-nice' reputation as mercurial (subject to sudden or unpredictable changes of mood or mind)? I know it was reported that his confident air rubbed some opponents the wrong way, but when I think of mercurial, I think of Albert Belle or Milton Bradley!

I think the only comparable for a pre-July 'promotion' from low-A was Arcia, and even that is a bad comp since he went on the DL before going to FM (and FM needed an outfielder). However, even with all those caveats, here are the monster numbers that even made this a consideration. AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS .352 20 71 18 25 8 1 5 18 50 9 16 2 2 .420 .704 1.124 Note especially the relatively low strikeout rate (20%) and this high BB:K rate. I personally think the Twins like to see how batters come out of their first slump before promoting. We have seen lots of examples (e.g. Aaron Hicks in '11 and Daniel Ortiz in '12) where prospects get off to a hot start, but never fully recover after their inevitable first slump.

Tough to have a prospect-laden AAA team when the big-league club has lost 99 and 96 games the last two seasons!

What part of 'expected to move up' comes across to you as pre-determined? I would imagine that they expect success for most of their top prospects.