Kevin

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The point, I think, of the comment was not that the projection systems are all terrible, but that assigning over- and under-performance to luck might be overlooking some factors that are not currently accounted for. I do not think the comment was expressing a disbelief in math, only that the math might not be as complete as it could ultimately be.

"Luck is the residue of design." Branch Rickey Luck can also be the explanation for what you can't explain. And just 'cause the stats don't yet exist for explaining a phenomenon, does not mean that the explanation is luck.

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Well, with their all-or-nothing approach, maybe the Astros would find a place for him on their roster.

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After making the team out of spring training two years straight, Aaron Hicks was sent back to Triple-A Rochester as lesser options made the team ahead of him. The message to Hicks was clear: Force your way back up here.Well, message received. Hicks obliterated the International League to the tune of a .336/.415/.561 batting line over 27 games, essentially forcing the hands of the Twins brass to get him back up here and see what, if any, changes he had made and if they’d stick. Of Hicks’ 36 hits in those 27 games, 16 had gone for extra bases, and he’d also stolen a couple bases without an unsuccessful attempt. In short, it was time. Hicks made his debut in Detroit, and through four games hasn’t gone hitless yet as a drastically-altered approach and mechanics seem to have taken hold, at least in early returns. From both sides of the plate, Hicks has adopted a pronounced leg kick with lots of hand movement as he prepares to load for his swing. Both elements were evident on Friday night as Hicks poked a 1-1 pitch from Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi into left field for his only hit of the game in the seventh inning, just two pitches before Danny Santana tripled him home with the tying run. Where did this all come from, though? Hicks said that, funnily enough, the change boiled down to him and a few of his guys messing around in the batting cages in the offseason. They were taking turns mimicking the leg kicks of established hitters like Yasiel Puig, Robinson Cano and Hanley Ramirez when before long, Hicks realized there might be something more than just a little goofing off to break up the winter doldrums. “I started to like it,” Hicks said. “From then on it was kind of a point where I was just like, you know what, I’m going to try this. We were just having fun in offseason hitting, and it just kind of led to me being comfortable with it and taking solid swings.” The change, which Hicks says has been key in terms of timing, having power and staying consistent, really took hold in spring training, where he had some help in the tinkering to fine tune it. “I came to spring training with the leg kick,” Hicks said. “Torii helped tinker it for me as far as what I needed to do to be able to get my foot down in time. There was tinkering all through the spring.” Hicks added that it didn’t really sink in that the change was permanent until the end of spring, when he was in minor league camp. Twins general manager Terry Ryan said before Friday’s game that players experiment with leg kicks quite frequently, and that the organization doesn’t have an issue with it as long as the hitter thinks it will help, and the manager and hitting instructor agree. In Hicks’ case and everyone else’s, Ryan said that the kicks typically evolve, based on comfort level and where exactly the evolution of that adjustment takes them. Ultimately, the club hoped Hicks would trip the trigger a bit from a passive hitter to a bit more aggressive — aggressively patient in Hicks’ own words — and in the mind of the hitter, that’s already happening. “I feel like with the leg kick I’ve been more aggressive,” Hicks said. “Swinging early in counts and being able to make contact early, and not missing pitches.” Hicks again hearkened back to spring training for when he felt the adjustment taking hold, as he went into spring camp with the idea that he wanted to get in as many swings as possible, which could potentially (and did) lead to fewer walks, but also more opportunities to get hits. Foundationally, a drastic change like this can need time for it to ‘take’ so to speak, especially with the amount of movement in his setup and the need to keep his head still throughout. Hicks said that hasn’t been too much of an issue, as he’s actually been more worried about a different part of his swing; one that’s more close to the issue at hand. “I think for me it’s more important to have my hands ready all the time to be able to fire them whenever I need to,” Hicks noted. “A leg kick is going to generate my timing mechanism so I need to have my hands ready.” In short, it’s a young player looking to make adjustments to not just be a guy on the team, but one of the key contributors. “To stick is the most important part,” Hicks said of his third trip to the big leagues. “Being able to play the way I know how to play and to help this team win games. That’s the most important thing. Producing is key. I want to be here long term. Not just to stay here, but be a guy who can help this team win.” Manager Paul Molitor stopped shy of endorsing Hicks as in the big leagues to stay, but heaped effusive praise on some of the aspects in his center fielder’s game that had fallen shy in the past and likely led to his demotion to open the 2015 campaign. “He’s done well,” Molitor said. “His at-bats across the board have been better. What I’ve tried to watch so far is that he’s seemed very engaged in the field defensively, in the dugout watching, trying to gain an edge. Those are the things that he needs to do to be a consistent player here.” Molitor didn’t stop there, as he said he’d like to see a continued evolution from Hicks as a player in all facets. “He has to understand that he’s the kind of player that can go 0-for-4 and still influence a game, whether it’s defensively, or he gets on base with a walk and steals a base and creates a run-scoring situation. Just to become more complete in the way he goes about his game, and realizing what he can bring to the team to help them win on that given day.” It seems as though Hicks has received that message. His outfield defense has been smooth — a sight for the sore eyes of the Twins faithful — and though he hasn’t taken his first walk — history tells us those will be coming soon in ample supply — it appears as though he may be on his way to influencing games in a number of ways, just like you’d expect someone you used a high first-round pick on. Ryan said that he senses a different air about Hicks; that he’s more confident and it’s for good reason. “He held up his end of the bargain (at Triple-A),” Ryan said. “He went down there and got to work. Consequently, he got promoted and rewarded.” Click here to view the article

In the minors on Sunday, Twins affiliates saw a solid rehab appearance from starter Ricky Nolasco in Cedar Rapids, and eight dominant innings from a left-hander in Rochester. Multiple games had dramatic finishes, but just one team would bring home a victory. Read on to find out what happened and where!RED WINGS REPORT Syracuse 4, Rochester 6 Box Score Rochester plated four runners in the third inning, and two in the fourth to provide just enough offense for the bullpen in the ninth, after starter Pat Dean had delivered eight dominant innings. Dean allowed just six hits (all singles) and walked two, while striking out seven. He retired the first ten Syracuse hitters, and his lone earned run against came in the fourth inning. Tony Gwynn Jr. singled with one out, moved to second on a walk and was brought home by a Kila Ka'aihue single. Dean struck out the next hitter to end the inning. Rochester's offense brought all nine hitters in the lineup to the plate in the third, resulting in their big inning. Aaron Hicks led off with walk, then stole second base and scored the first run of the game on a Josmil Pinto single. A Brock Peterson single later loaded the bases for Danny Ortiz, whose ground out went 3 to 2 to prevent a run but kept the bases loaded with two outs. Jose Martinez then singled to bring in two runs and chase starter Taylor Jordan from the game. James Beresford brought Ortiz home with the final run of the inning with a double. A Reynaldo Rodriguez triple to left field in the fourth inning scored Hicks and Pinto to provide the needed offense for the ninth, when Stephen Pryor relieved Dean with a 6-1 lead. The first three batters loaded the bases after a double, walk and single. The Red Wings then conceded the run for a double play that made the score 6-2 with two outs and a runner on third. The next hitter, Cutter Dykstra, hit his first home run of the season to make the score 6-4. Rochester went back to the bullpen for closer Michael Tonkin. He struck out the final batter for his fifth save of the year. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 2, Tennessee 5 Box Score The Lookouts scored first and last in this one, but lack of anything in between led to their sixth loss in their last seven games to put them at 7-9 on the season, and in fourth place in the Southern's Leagues North Division. Dalton Hicks hit his second home run of the year in the first inning for the early 1-0 lead, and a ninth inning double from Adam Brett Walker put runners on second and third. A Stephen Wickens ground out then brought in the game's last run. In between, the Lookouts managed just three singles and Tennessee starter Frank Batista retired the last twelve hitters he faced to complete seven innings. Chattanooga starter Tyler Duffey ran into trouble with two outs in the fifth inning and the game tied 1-1. With runners on first and third, four consecutive singles plated runs to put the Smokies up for good 5-1. Adrian Salcedo came on for the sixth inning, and pitched three scoreless innings, allowing just one hit and striking out three to finish the game. MIRACLE MATTERS Palm Beach 4, Fort Myers 2 Box Score Starter Brett Lee came off the disabled list to make his first start of the season for the Miracle, and left the game down 4-0 after five innings. He surrendered the four runs on 11 hits, while striking out four. It was a flurry of singles that caused problems for Lee in the fifth (and all game for the Miracle), when four walks led to three runs on the scoreboard. Dereck Rodriguez made his Florida State League and 2015 season debut when he came on for the sixth inning. He pitched two innings of scoreless ball, allowing one hit and walking two, with two K's. Brandon Peterson allowed two hits while collecting the first two outs of eighth inning, before being replaced by Madison Boer who finished the game with 1.1 scoreless. The Miracle scored both their runs in the sixth, when with two outs a Jason Kanzler single moved Chad Christensen to second. Logan Wade brought him home with a single of his own, and Marcus Knecht followed with a double to bring in Kanzler. The Miracle wouldn't collect another hit until there were two outs in the ninth inning when Mitch Garver singled to center. The next hitter, Bryan Haar flew out to left to end the game. Despite all of the Cardinals hits being singles, the Miracle were outhit 14-7 and fell to 6-12 on the season. Palm Beach got a complete game effort from Jimmy Reed, who improved to 2-0. KERNELS NUGGETS Kane County 3, Cedar Rapids 2 Box Score Cedar Rapids made a late effort to avoid a series sweep, but would left a runner in scoring position in the ninth to be handed a series sweep by rival Kane County. Ricky Nolasco made the start in his first rehab appearance, and was solid in five innings. He allowed just one unearned run on three hits and zero walks. while striking out five. He completed his outing with a 1-2-3 fifth inning, with the final two hitters going down looking. A Tanner English error in center field in the first inning led to the only blemish in the run column. The Kernels tied the game in the fifth, when Nick Gordon brought home English after he had singled and stole second base (his seventh of the year). This tied the game at one and made up for the early misplay. It was then quiet until the seventh inning, when reliever Michael Theofanopoulus ran into some issues. A double from Fernery Ozuna put the Cougars up 2-1, and then two consecutive wild pitches brought him home to make it 3-1. In the ninth inning Cedar Rapids had a chance after English led off the frame with his first home run of the year, making it 3-2. Zach Granite drew a walk and moved to second on a wild-pitch to put the tying run in scoring position, but a Max Murphy ground out ended the game. English and Granite each collected two hits to lead the Cedar Rapids offense, but as a team the Miracle were just 1-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded twelve men on base. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Pat Dean, Rochester Red Wings (W, 8.0IP, 1 R, 6 H’s, 2 BB, 7 K’s) Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Tanner English, Cedar Rapids Kernels (2-4, 2 R's, HR, RBI, SB) MONDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Columbus @ Rochester (5:35 PM CST) – LHP Taylor Rogers (1-0, 2.37 ERA) Chattanooga @ Tennessee (6:05 PM CST) – RHP J.O. Berrios (1-1, 3.94 ERA) Fort Myers @ Tampa (6:06 PM CST) – LHP Luke Westphal (0-1, 5.40 ERA) Cedar Rapids - Scheduled Day Off. Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss the Sunday games. Click here to view the article

The mantra has been the same over the last month, regardless of the source. “The best division in baseball? You have to think it’s the AL Central.” or “The most competitive division this season looks to be the AL Central!” No matter how it is framed, the reasons listed are always the same:“The perennial favorite Detroit Tigers still have David Price, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera.” “The AL Champion Royals still have that speedy offense and one of the best bullpens in baseball.” “The White Sox have improved across every position and look to be real contenders!” “Don’t discount the Indians! This team has a sneaky offense and a solid rotation!” The conversation typically ends there. When analysts list the division top through bottom, they seemingly always forget to include the team that has, unfortunately, taken up residency at the bottom of the division over the past four years. If we are being objective, we cannot really fault the national media for not paying much attention to the Twins. This team, as currently constructed, is not expected to do any better than fifth in the division. Odds-makers have forecast the Twins around 65 to 69 wins and locally the Twins have fallen off the radar, evidenced by expected all-time low ticket sales (for Target Field) and a growing apathy among the fan base. Yes, our beloved Minnesota Twins have essentially become an afterthought before the season has even begun. While it’s disappointing to see the Twins written off before spring training really gets under way, this national lack of interest directed towards the Twins may actually be a good thing. How exactly do all of the aforementioned “negatives” create a “positive” result? Simply put, it removes a most expectations and pressure from what will be a young team. While Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano will always have some form of pressure as the fan-proclaimed “Saviors” of the Twins, other young players on the verge of the big leagues will play with zero expectations. Players like Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Nick Burdi can all be allowed to learn and grow on the job without the expectation and pressure that they will deliver instantly and turn the team into a contender. This relaxed atmosphere can make a great difference – instead of being demoted or benched at the first sign of a slump, the young players can work through it, learn to adapt and (hopefully) improve their game, all at the highest level. Of course, this reduced pressure doesn’t amount to much if the team is still an absolute train wreck – but there’s reason to believe the days of horrendous, unwatchable baseball are behind the Twins. While it may be easy to scoff at that line of thinking, dubbing it “early season optimism” the facts point to changes on the horizon. First, the pitching staff has improved. While we will not know to what degree until the season has reached its conclusion, we can safely say that this year’s pitching staff (assuming they all enter the season healthy) is, in fact, better than last year’s rotation. Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone / Trevor May / Alex Meyer create, at the least, a major league viable rotation. Ervin Santana adds another quality starter the team simply did not have last season. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone enter the season healthy after suffering through injuries last season. Trevor May looked better with each start, and Alex Meyer and his potentially “ace” level repertoire is knocking on the big league door. Even if Phil Hughes regresses, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone don’t bounce back and Trevor May doesn’t amount to anything more than Kyle Gibson 2.0 (which, wouldn’t entirely be a bad thing, mind you), so long as those five are making a majority of the starts, the staff improves simply based on cumulative quality. Lest we forget, Andrew Albers, Yohan Pino and a bevy of AAAA arms made a large number of starts for the Twins last season – it’s addition by subtraction simply by giving the starts to actual major league caliber arms. My final point in favor of the pitching staff: Mike Pelfrey, who entered last season as the team’s third best starter, can now be considered the seventh or eighth best option – a great indicator that the overall quality of the staff has improved. Meanwhile, it’s easy to forget that the Twins finished the second half of the season with one of the best offenses in baseball. Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas have been named as prime candidates for regression, which may be fair. Both played at an absolutely incredible level last season, and it would be unrealistic to expect that to continue without some growing pains this year. Focusing solely on Santana and Vargas is a mistake, however, as it discounts the improvements we saw from Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe and Oswaldo Arcia. All three made fundamental changes in their approach at the plate last season, and all three showed marked improvement by season’s end – improvements that give every indication of being sustainable as we enter 2015. Factor in a healthy Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter providing a consistent quality bat and contributions from the improved trio of Plouffe, Dozier and Arcia and there is reason to believe this offense will remain a threat this season. To call the expectations for the Twins in 2015 “slim” would probably be a bit generous. The national media and much of the MLB fan base have written the team off prior to the first pitches being thrown. While even the most optimistic Twins fans would struggle to call the team contenders, I do think this is an improved club, lurking within this division, which will prove to be more of a challenge than they’re being credited with. If that is the case, this lack of spotlight may prove to be a very good thing for the Twins entering 2015. Click here to view the article

Yes. In the approximate decade I grew up in to a baseball (Yankee) fan in NYC, the records and standings: 1949: 50-105 8th place 1950: 67-87 5th place 1951: 62-92 7th place 1952: 78-76 5th 1953: 76-76 5th 1954: 66-88 6th 1955: 53-101 8th 1956: 59-95 7th 1957: 55-99 8th 1958: 61-93 8th 1959: 63-91 8th 1960: 73-81 5th So for those 11 years, not exactly a myth, nor suburban.

Washington Senators: First in war, first in peace, and last in the American League.

This post is part of a series in which Mark Armour and I count down the 25 best GMs in history, crossposting from our blog. For an explanation, please see this post. Andy MacPhail had big shoes to fill. Both his father Lee and his grandfather Larry are in the Hall of Fame as baseball executives. When the Minnesota Twins promoted the 33-year-old MacPhail to run the club, they surely took his pedigree into account.He lived up to his surname, and his surprisingly quick success cemented a wave of extremely young GMs, a couple with similar front office bloodlines. Coming out of college in 1976 MacPhail knew he wanted a career in a baseball front office and thought he had lined up a position with the Montreal Expos. Unfortunately, when the American League awarded an expansion franchise to Toronto that spring, creating a second major league team in Canada, the Expos were so dismayed with American League president Lee MacPhail that they rescinded the employment offer to Lee’s son. Andy quickly rebounded, taking a positon with the Cubs in park operations and player development. In early 1982, just 28, he joined Houston as assistant to general manager Al Rosen. New Minnesota Twins owner Carl Pohlad brought in MacPhail as vice president of player personnel in 1985 and one year later made him general manager, at 33 the youngest GM in baseball. The Twins had been mired in mediocrity or worse for the previous decade and a half; nevertheless the squad MacPhail took over had a number of talented young homegrown players, including Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti, and Frank Viola. MacPhail made several moves to bolster his nucleus with veteran talent, trading for left fielder Dan Gladden and closer Jeff Reardon and signing reliever Juan Berenguer. The 1987 Twins crept up to 85 wins, but it was enough to win a weak AL West and beat the Tigers in the ALCS. When the Twins defeated the Cardinals in the 1987 World Series, everyone associated with the team became a regional hero, perhaps because other than the Minneapolis Lakers in the late 1940s and early 1950s (before the NBA was popularly established as a national league), no Minnesota professional team had won a championship in any of the four major sports. MacPhail was hailed as “Boy Wonder.” Despite his quick success, MacPhail recognized that lower revenue teams could only compete cyclically and that a team needed a solid crop of low-salaried youngsters and under-appreciated veterans who could ripen concurrently, leaving some payroll available to plug holes with free agents. Sensing the team was not ready to compete for a title, in 1989 MacPhail traded Viola, the previous year’s Cy Young Award winner, for several players, most notably pitchers Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani. The Twins fell to last place in 1990, but MacPhail felt his restructured team had enough talent and payroll flexibility to contend. Before the 1991 season he signed free agents Mike Pagliarulo, Jack Morris, and Chili Davis, while farm products Chuck Knoblauch and Scott Erickson came through with star-quality seasons. The team won 95 games, going from last to first in their division, and again prevailed in a seven-game World Series. More than two decades later, these two Twins World Series victories remain Minnesota’s only substantive men’s professional sports championships. During his stint in Minnesota MacPhail was brilliant at managing his payroll, recognizing when he had a team close to contention, and using his payroll capacity to acquire the right veterans. MacPhail’s success helped usher in a new era of very young GMs. Oakland had hired Sandy Alderson in 1983, and Texas had brought in Tom Grieve a year later—both just 35—but after MacPhail the minimum age fell even further. Dave Dombrowski and Jim Bowden were only 31 and Randy Smith just 29 when hired. Smith and Bill Bavasi, just 36 when he became a GM, were, like MacPhail, scions of successful front office executives. Somewhat surprisingly, other than by Alderson, the analytic revolution that was slowly seeping into baseball before Moneyball was not really embraced by this generation of young GMs. The Twins remained competitive in 1992, but fell off quickly thereafter as several players left as free agents, the pitching deteriorated, and several younger players performed below expectations. With rapidly increasing salaries throughout baseball after an arbitrator ruled the owners had been colluding to keep salaries down, MacPhail was becoming increasingly pessimistic on the future of small market clubs. “I can’t make it work anymore,” MacPhail said regarding even his successful cyclic approach to building a competitive team. After a player's strike shut down the final phase of the 1994 baseball season, the Tribune Company hired MacPhail to be president and CEO of the Cubs, one of baseball’s most venerable but long-suffering teams. As his title implied, MacPhail was responsible for the entire franchise and named Ed Lynch his general manager. MacPhail intended to build a “development-based” organization while at the same time bringing in veterans to keep Chicago competitive in a weak division. In mid-2000, after just one playoff appearance in five years, MacPhail jettisoned Lynch and assumed the GM duties himself. He got the club up to 88 wins in 2001, but the next July MacPhail named Jim Hendry the GM. In 2003 the Cubs won 88 games and qualified for the playoffs, where the team advanced to the NLCS, before losing a heartbreaking seven game series to the Marlins. The Cubs would not make the post season again under MacPhail’s reign, and he resigned after a disappointing 66-96 record in 2006. Certainly the Cubs suffered some bad luck—phenom pitchers Kerry Wood and Mark Prior pitched 200 or more innings only three times between them due to injuries–but the farm system did not deliver as expected and several prospects were traded away with little substantive return. In contrast, MacPhail was highly successful in the off-field part of his job, as attendance and revenues surged during his 12 years at the helm. MacPhail was not unemployed for long: In mid-2007 Orioles owner Peter Angelos brought him aboard as president of baseball operations, acting as a general manager with considerable authority. Baltimore had fallen on hard times since consecutive ALCS trips in the late 1990s, winning fewer than 80 games every year from 1998 to 2007, but MacPhail again hoped to create a “top echelon scouting and development franchise.” When the farm system appeared to be more efficient at developing pitching, MacPhail’s strategy evolved to “buy the bats and grow the arms.” Unfortunately, many of the young hurlers never progressed as hoped, and the Orioles lost over 90 games every season through 2011, after which MacPhail resigned. The next year Baltimore was baseball’s surprise team; they won 93 games and made the playoffs, mostly with a team built by MacPhail. Although he wasn’t around to enjoy it, MacPhail’s farm system and savvy trades for the likes of Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, and Chris Davis left the Orioles with a solid talent base. To read more about the history of baseball operations and the GM, please buy our new book In Pursuit of Pennants–Baseball Operations from Deadball to Moneyball via the publisheror at your favorite on-line store. Click here to view the article

Thanks for posting this. Your transcribing skill are good enough to get the gist of the conversations across, try calcium for the hand cramping and the dog... well, not much to be done.

If this baseball thing doesn't work out, he's auditioning for his next career as a football referee. He'll be the designated safety caller.

Brad, The istory of the '88 draft was ard to read. I kept looking for itters with their omer stats or the names of urlers who threw the igh-ard eater. I went to ask a friend from ispaniola whether e could elp but all e could give me was " No ablo engles." I replied, "oh, ell".