frightwig

Pelfrey was a 1st round pick... in 2005. But his career numbers aren't much different than Correia's marks. Pelfrey career: 50-54, 4.36 ERA (92 ERA+), 4.50 xFIP, 5.08 K/9, 3.19 BB/9 (4.74 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 4.88 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 in 2011). Correia career: 60-65, 4.54 ERA (88 ERA+), 4.44 xFIP, 6.01 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 (4.21 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 4.68 K/9, 2.42 BB/9 in 2012). They're basically the same type and quality of pitcher (even if Pelfrey's arm is in shape... and we'll see about that). I like Correia a little better because of the question about Pelfrey's health, but also because Correia's control has been a bit better and his groundball rate has been higher, lately. I think there's a fair chance that either one of these guys could be a decent back-end, pitch-to-contact, groundball, 4.50 ERA pitcher. But, I doubt the ceiling, or upside, is much higher than that for either of them, too.

Storen came back to throw 4.1 innings in July (4.15 ERA, 4.2 K/9), 10.2 innings in August (3.38 ERA, 6.8 K/9), and 15.1 innings in Sept/October (1.17 ERA, 8.2 K/9). He had a light workload that got progressively greater as he seemed to get stronger. I don't think that's the model we can expect Worley to follow. Worley is going to be expected to take his regular turns in the rotation, and I'm anticipating that the results won't look so hot for at least a couple months (while we occasionally read reports about 'breaking the scar tissue,' building strength, and gaining confidence in his elbow) because I've seen that movie before. Johan Santana in April/May 2004 is a big example that comes to mind (of course he was awesome from June onwards that season and won the Cy Young, because he was Johan Santana in his prime, but he had a 5.61 ERA in April/May). In June 2010, Santana also commented to the media about his slow recovery from another off-season surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow (LINK: http://metsblog.com/metsblog/johan-santanas-elbow-isnt-fully-recovered-from-surgery/). Part of his complaint at that time was that the injury had affected his mechanics... and, who knows, maybe that led to the shoulder injury that put him out for 2011, too. If 2004 Santana is a best-case scenario (Cy Young after a rough start), I guess the ultimate outcome of Santana's 2010 season would be the worst-case. I'm hopeful that Worley will be able to post a 4.00 ERA, or better, after May next season, and will go on to have a successful Twins career. In the meantime, I also hope that Twins fans won't immediately write him off if he struggles out of the gate next spring. Some recovery time at the start of the season should be expected.

One important thing to keep in mind: Worley is recovering from surgery to remove a "loose body" and a bone spur from his elbow. Pitchers who have had similar offseason surgeries typically need 2-3 months of the next season to get back into shape, which means Worley probably isn't going to be in form until next June or July. And that means Worley isn't really going to help the Twins contend until 2014-16. I'd guess that's been factored into Terry Ryan's plan, anyway. I like this move for the long term. Even if Trevor May doesn't solve his control problems, I'd still rather have Vance Worley (assuming he gets healthy) over the next 4 years than Ben Revere. But it definitely does look like another sign of punting on 2013, unless Ryan is quietly planning to spend money on the lineup as well as starting pitching this winter. The lineup, as it stands, looks like it's probably going to be below-average, and possibly even really poor.

For what it's worth, Wikipedia indicates that Tony La Russa left Oakland because the Haas family sold the club.

It is some comfort that we can say, "The Twins were the worst team in the league largely because the original pitching rotation was a total wash-out." And Terry Ryan will have an opportunity to fill up to four rotation spots with new acquisitions this winter, if he so chooses. Then again, the one pitcher on the current roster who figures to have a guaranteed starting spot next spring, Scott Diamond, probably performed over his head this year; and what are the chances that Terry Ryan really can fix the rest of the rotation with quality pickups in one off-season? "We need practically a whole new starting rotation," is a pretty daunting thought. If we're reasonably lucky, the rotation next April will have Diamond + two above-average acquisitions + Hendriks + Deduno/DeVries or some NRI bargain find. Maybe that will be good enough to compete in the 2013 AL Central, maybe not. Either way, it might be the last shot with this lineup core. Heading into 2014, most of the Twins' best players will be older than 30, and Ryan will have to decide on whether to re-sign Morneau and keep or trade Willingham and Span (if he hasn't traded either of them, already). Are we hoping to see the front office continue to build around an aging core in 2014 and beyond? If it turns out that Morneau, Span, and Willingham will be leaving in the next year or so, what then? Unlike 10 years ago, the Twins farm system doesn't seem to promise much help in building the next winning team, anytime soon.

The O's success this year has depended a lot on luck (which Nick acknowledged in his post), but Nick is right that the Twins would stand a puncher's chance next year if the pitching improves to a league-average level, which probably means eliminating 125-150 runs allowed. (Easier said than done, right?) So what did the O's do in the past year to fix their team? To recap Nick... They signed an inexpensive Asian SP (Chen costs $3.2M this year) who has been a bit better than league-average, unlike Terry Ryan's bargain flyer for the Twins rotation last spring. They swapped league-average-ish SP's with Colorado (and got a good reliever, Matt Lindstrom, in the deal who was later traded for Joe Saunders, another dependably average SP). Freed from Coors Field, Jason Hammel has had a breakout season. (Btw, although Jeremy Guthrie fell apart in Colorado, he's also been very good through 10 starts with Kansas City this season.) They found Miguel Gonzalez, a 28 year-old minor league free agent released by the Red Sox last winter (because he had a 6.17 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in 46.2 IP at AA last season), who has, incredibly, posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 79.2 IP (including 11 starts) for Baltimore. One young pitcher, Chris Tillman, who struggled in 3 prior partial-seasons with the O's, suddenly has been very good in 11 starts this year. The other young pitcher Nick mentioned, Zach Britton, has been lit up a number of times this season, but recently he had a string of 4 very nice starts, too. Finally, the bullpen has been very good. Whereas the Baltimore bullpen had a 4.18 ERA last year, it rates 4th in the AL with a 3.15 ERA this season. A few key relievers (Luis Ayala, Darren O'Day, Steve Johnson, Lindstrom) were not part of the team last year. So, those things. Not to mention acquiring Wilson Betemit and Nate McLouth, who have been solid additions to the lineup, and Chris Davis having a minor breakout year at 26, after the O's got him from Texas for Koji Uehara last summer. And of course the lineup core (Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Hardy, Reynolds, all under 30 years old) are all playing well this season. It's true that none of these moves cost a lot of money, or essential talent from the organization. But, at the same time, you'd have to admit that it is quite a few bargain-hunting moves (about 10, plus Tillman making the leap) that have worked out all at once for the O's. Tommy Hunter hasn't panned out, and a few of their pitching prospects besides Tillman have continued to scuffle, but a really high percentage of these bargain deals have paid off for them this year. You might even say that the O's front office has been as lucky as the team on the field. (I mean, Miguel Gonzalez! Come on!) But a reason for Twins fans to hope? OK, sure. If Terry Ryan can pull off 8-10 inexpensive moves that work out, particularly if a few of them fill holes in the rotation, maybe Twins fans will get to enjoy such luck next year, too.

Do the Twins really figure to have much money to spend this winter? I had the opposite impression, given that the club already owes $68M to 9 players (including 2, Blackburn and Nishioka, who may not be on the 2013 roster), before Terry Ryan even settles any arbitration cases and accounts for the serfs in the organization. If the payroll budget drops again, as many expect, he might have enough money to buy or trade for a mid-price starting pitcher. He'll probably take a flyer on another budget-line veteran to fill a rotation spot, too. Maybe he'll flip Span for one or two young arms.... But I'll be kind of surprised if he does much more than that.

Can you give some examples of "low-hit high-walk" pitchers (let's say a BB/9 above 4.0, but the closer to a 7.0 BB/9 the better) who sustained above-average success by that approach? And would any pitchers on such a list also have a K/9 below 6?

The problem is his k rate is only 5.9 per nine innings. That K/9 might be just fine if his walk rate were less than half his 7.0 BB/9. But he does have a 7.0 BB/9(!), and his minor league BB/9 is 5.2. He's 29 years old. He probably won't ever develop a respectable command of the strike zone if he hasn't done it by now. His K/9 could well drop, and his BABIP probably will rise, as the league gets a longer look at him, or he loses any velocity, or if his luck just regresses to the mean. Look, we're talking about a minor league journeyman sporting a 5.40 FIP, 5.07 xFIP, with a mediocre K/9 and horrible command, who already has to rely on "pitching out of trouble" for the success he's had in 46 IP this season. And there's some question about whether he might be one of the Twins' better rotation options going into next season? Oy.

Well, the 2003 team was 44-49 at the All-Star break, but had been 43-37 on June 29. So they had been having a fine season, until they just hit a horrific slide in the two weeks going into the break (which they immediately corrected with 5 straight wins to open the 2nd half). And the rotation after Santana (who has no equal on this year's team) wasn't great, but Radke, Lohse, and Rogers were league-average pitchers that season. And everyone figured even at the time that Kansas City was going to fade, and it was probably just a matter of beating the White Sox, who were just a half-game up on the Twins at that point. The 2004 team, which rolled to a three-peat Central championship by playing .600 ball in the 2nd half, had already posted a 47-40 record and trailed Chicago by just a half-game at the break. The 2006 team that came back from a 12-game deficit in mid-July actually started winning in the second week of June, and had climbed to a 47-39 record at the break. From June 8 to that point, the Twins were 22-6. Catching Chicago and/or Detroit still seemed unlikely, but we had reason to believe that the team could play very good ball the rest of the way--and maybe one of those teams would stumble, and the wild card might be in play. The 2008 team, which won 88 games but lost the Game 163 playoff with Chicago, was 53-42 at the break, on a 21-8 tear, and trailed the White Sox by just 1 game. The 2009 team, which won 86 games plus the Game 163 playoff with Detroit, was 45-44 at the break, in 3rd place, just 4 games behind the Tigers. The 2010 team, which crushed in the second half to finish with 94 wins, was 46-42 at the break. They had been scuffling in the few weeks leading up to that point, but showed their potential with a 40-29 mark on June 20; and, despite recent struggles, they were still in 3rd place, 3.5 games behind Chicago after the first half. I see that you've acknowledged a couple times that we're just talking about a pipe dream, but let's also be clear that this Twins team, which stands at 36-49 after playing slightly better than .500 ball since mid-May, doesn't really compare well to any of Minnesota's past playoff teams. Coming back from some midseason deficit has been a common feature to most of those good seasons in the Gardy era (excepting only 2002), which is why Twins fans have come to believe that we always have a shot. "This is what we do." But none of those playoff teams had so many problems at this point. None of them had got off to such a horrible start for 6 weeks, only to "turn it around" with a run of merely .510-ish ball for the next 6 weeks. None of them were worse than 3rd at the break, much less sitting in last place. None of them came back from anything like a 36-49 record. I mean, it's fun to indulge a bit in pipe dreams, what might happen if every break starts to go our way, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking, "the Twins have come back from this sort of situation before." No, they have not.

Let's say the Twins win 70% of the rest of their games against Central teams; that would give them a 30-13 mark in those remaining games, which would put them at 66-62. In that case, they would have to go 21-13 (.618) against East/West teams in the 2nd half just to get to 87 wins. So, it's not going to be enough just to win division matchups. The Twins can pretty well dominate Central teams from now on, and they'll still have to be exceptionally good against teams outside the division who have been kicking their asses to this point. And then, if the White Sox, winners of 11 of their past 15 games, do not fall off their current pace for 89.6 wins, even that 51-26 (.662) miracle finish will not be enough. There's the other problem with pinning our slim hopes on the presumably weak intradivision schedule: the teams already at the top have to stumble while playing a similar schedule within the division, plus, unlike the Twins, they get to play the team currently at the bottom.

I'm still skeptical about Diamond, because of his low K/9 and my doubts that he can sustain the low walk rate he's posted so far. Right now, his performance has been absolutely the best case scenario for a pitcher of his type, but he's walking a fine line. What's the track record of pitchers who start out at 26 with a low strikeout rate, already depending on exceptionally fine control and a high groundball percentage to be successful? I wouldn't expect many of them to have a good, long career. If Diamond's walk rate regresses to around 3.0, and his strikeout rate slips just a bit, and maybe he starts allowing some more flyballs, suddenly he's Nick Blackburn, or Carlos Silva after his miracle year. Maybe he has one more strong season in him. Maybe he'll be at least a decent back-end starter for 2-3 years. But I just hope Terry Ryan doesn't go signing him to any longterm contract.

I didn't realize that in-season WAR figures had been declared meaningless. Even full-season UZR scores can fluctuate a lot from year to year, which makes it a suspect gauge of a player's real defensive abilities. People still do seem to put a lot of stock in season-end WAR totals, though. Anyway, does anyone really think that Plouffe's defensive ratings have been unfair to him? Now, if you care only about half-season bat production, you could make a case that Plouffe should be next in line if another 3B reserve spot opens up. But, even if that's your sole standard, I don't think he really deserves to take the only reserve spot from Miguel Cabrera.

OK, so Mauer is no longer a full-time Catcher. He's a half-time Catcher, who plays the rest of his games at 1B/DH. Which means that instead of him playing 110-120 games behind the plate, plus a handful of games at DH, and needing a bunch of days off to rest his aching legs (particularly as he ages), we get him for ~80 games behind the plate plus another 65+ games with him in the lineup at 1B/DH, and maybe his legs hold up better as the years go by. I'll take that. And, even as he's been splitting time between Catcher and the 1B/DH role, he's still been worth 2.5 fWAR through the first 3 months of the season. That not only makes him the most valuable "Catcher" in the league, but--get this--it makes him the most valuable "1st baseman" in the AL to this point, too. If he keeps it up, he ought to wind up the season worth 5-5.5 fWAR. Even at a cost of $23M/yr., I don't think the front office could reasonably expect a guy to be better than that; any value above that level should be considered a special bonus. (Fwiw, FanGraphs says that anything above 5 WAR is well worth $23M.)

He was also only worth 1.4 fWAR coming into today's game. He doesn't deserve to bump Adrian Beltre or Miguel Cabrera. Even if Ron Washington had wanted to make a point of adding another 3B reserve, he would have had to snub Brett Lawrie (who leads AL 3B with 2.8 fWAR) and Mike Moustakas (2.6 fWAR), as well as Kyle Seager (1.9 fWAR) and Alex Rodriguez (1.5 fWAR, HOF career). The only way to justify that is to say that you don't care about balanced plate performance, defense, track record, or total value; he should be an All-Star just because he's hit a bunch of bombs in the last 6 weeks (after completely sucking for the first 6 weeks). On Willingham, I agree with the consensus here. He's having a very good season; but, given that there are at least 6 other outfielders who deserve an All-Star reserve spot more than him (including the three who actually made the cut), I can't say that he really got "snubbed."

I don't think that a high BABIP is necessarily bad luck for the pitcher or a reflection of bad defense. Sometimes, it just means that hitters are tattooing the ball. I think any pitcher good enough to wear a big league uniform is capable of putting together two good outings, and certainly even the worst team in the league, in any year, is capable of going 5-5 in a 10-game sample. It would be nice if two unheralded pitchers go on to have a good season and lead the team back towards respectability. But... what are the chances?

Btw, Mauer's wOBA and wRC+ currently are 3rd best among AL catchers. If you were choosing an All-Star team today, Wieters and Napoli would be your top 2 catchers. But if you had room to take a third catcher, I think Mauer or possibly Carlos Santana would be next. BOO?

Most catchers, even the great ones like Bench, tend to suffer a steep decline by age 32. As I recall, Posada and Fisk are rare exceptions; and Posada didn't become a regular starter until his late 20's, and even Fisk was pretty erratic from year to year after he turned 30. Given Mauer's history of leg and back injuries (including the injury in his rookie year that resulted in the meniscus cartilage being removed from one knee, which seems to have been collectively forgotten at some point), the Twins certainly were taking a huge leap of blind faith in betting on Mauer to maintain superstar value into his mid-30s. But whether he's already close to being washed-up, who knows. I wish he could boost that slg pct above .400, at least, but even if his current line is the new reality for Mauer, his OPS+ and wOBA are closely comparable to his production in 2005 and 2007, when he was worth 3.4 and 3.1 fWAR, respectively. That's not a $23M value, but that's still a very good player, perhaps even an All-Star, or just a cut below. It's a shame that fans are so quick to boo someone who is not only a very good player, still, but seems humble and hard-working, and rates as the best catcher and among the very best players in frickin' Twins history, just because injuries apparently have caught up to him, so he's not worth $23M of the Pohlad family's money. (If fans need to find a way to be philosophical about the money, try thinking of half his salary as back pay for all the free bonus value he provided from 2004-10.)

I just noticed that 4/5 of the regular rotation to this point (excluding Diamond) has a K/9 below 5. Liriano is the only one missing bats; unfortunately, he also can't find the plate, gives up too many homers, and has an unlucky BABIP to this point.

Fortunately, Terry Ryan should have plenty of budget to fill at least two rotation spots with quality pitchers next season. Unfortunately, the lineup is also in dire need of upgrades at 5 spots; and even if Morneau is healthy next year, he'll probably need to be replaced in 2014, too. I don't think money alone could fix enough holes to make the team a contender anytime soon. I expect we'll have to wait for Ryan to rebuild the farm system before we get back to enjoying pennant races again.

I don't think Span is untouchable, although his contract status makes him a nice asset to keep around. But, if Terry Ryan can swap him for a good prospect, that's fine. However, I don't understand why a deal would be on hold because Drew Storen is hurt. Say you're the GM of a last place team. Your team was lousy last year, too. You need to start rebuilding soon. Right now, your starting rotation is a trainwreck; but at least four SP's on the roster have expiring contracts and shouldn't be back next year, which is good but also leaves you with a lot of holes to fill. At the same time, most of your lineup sucks, as well. You really, really could use upgrades at every spot but Catcher, Leftfield, and Centerfield; even if your constantly injured former MVP at 1B/DH is healthy and productive again next year, you probably need a replacement for him in 2014, too. Unfortunately, your prospect crop in the high minors isn't very good, either. So maybe you're thinking about trading your Centerfielder for some rebuilding pieces, and the Nationals seem interested in him. OK, fine. Why would the plan to trade your CF depend upon the health and availability of the Nats' closer? How does Drew Storen solve any of Terry Ryan's biggest problems?

I bet Don Cooper wouldn't mind a chance to help Liriano work out his problems.

I'll take the Royals here because their prospects intrigue me more than anything going on with the Twins right now.

I picked the Indians here, because I think they have the best mix of talent and experience after Detroit. Given good health and a bounce-back year from Choo, I could see them improving on last year's 80 wins--maybe even giving Detroit a good run if they're really lucky. I'd guess the Royals are the most likely to challenge the Indians for this spot, if their young talent can come together this year.

Tigers. If a "race" means they wind up winning by 5-6 games, OK, I could see the Tigers winning 90 games, while the Indians or Royals win 84, and not putting the division to bed until the third week of September. But I think it's unlikely that the race will be any tighter than that. Any team after Detroit would need pretty much everything to go perfectly to really make a run at 90+ wins. The Tigers probably get there if most of their plans come together just reasonably well.