BrianTrottier

Fair enough. But Arcia has shown improvement, and I don't buy that he's a "bad" athlete. By major league standards he's certainly not the best, but he is a major league outfielder. If he shows the same level of improvement in 2015 as he did in 2014, then according to UZR he's saving the Twins runs. So I guess what I'm saying is that not being able to name an "unathletic" outfielder who showed "significant" improvement isn't evidence that it doesn't or can't happen. All that means is that you can't think of one. Arcia is a butcher in right and he has shown improvement. He's never gonna be a Buxton or a Hicks out there, but he can be servicable. Hopefully he continues his demonstrated improvement.

Alex Gordon. Outfield UZR 2010 (in 511.1 innings): 1.1 Outfield UZR 2011 (in 1309 innings): 12.2 Outfield UZR 2012 (in 1424 innings): 14.6 Outfield UZR 2013 (in 1364 innings): 8.6 Outfield UZR 2014 (in 1372 innings): 25 Add: Arcia also improved in UZR from 2013 (UZR= -12.3) to 2014 (UZR= -4.5). Still not good, but it definitely contradicts the (old timey, non evidence-based) idea that outfielding is purely instinctual rather than a skill that can be learned.

My point isn't that hitting and fielding are the same thing. That's why hitting .300 is considered elite. My point is that it seems to be a similar task for the human brain to recognize a pitch coming out of the pitcher's hand as it is to recognize a ball coming off of a bat. Not the same physical task, but a similar process that your brain goes through in order to react. The human brain can be trained to distinguish balls from strikes. It can also be trained to read, to guide an artist's hand, and to drive a car. It's generally agreed upon that people can improve at all of these things through repetition, even if the person is not Stephen Hawking, Kandinski, or Jeff Gordon. So yes, you can train your brain to better recognize the trajectory of a ball that was hit by a baseball bat. Not everybody is innately gifted to routinely get a perfect jump. But Arcia is a major league outfielder, meaning that he is athletic enough to learn to take that correct first step, to take better routes, and to position himself better so that he doesn't need to get as good of a jump in the first place. Also, pitches have spin and they break, so I'm not sure what you're getting at there. Whether or not the ball is moving toward "the same general zone as the plate" is extremely difficult to pick up on in practice, especially when moving 90+ mph. So shouldn't improving at the plate be astronomically harder than improving in the outfield? I would think so. I can't argue with you about Arcia's k rate. What I'm saying is that I think it's wrong to assume that Arcia (or below average outfielders in general) can't get better and become a serviceable glove out in right. I would rather the Twins look into a Vargas-Miller swap than Arcia-Miller.

Hate to write back-to-back posts, but I've got to disagree with the part about not being able to practice judgement ("instinct" is too vague of a concept to argue about intelligibly, I think). If judgement cannot be learned, then why do coaches spend so much time with young hitters teaching them to gain command of the strike zone? It seems to me that the cognitive process of judging a ball from a strike has to be similar to that of distinguishing a ball that's catchable from one that's not, only in the latter case you've generally got a little time to adjust as opposed to the .5 seconds it takes a pitch to reach the plate. If we argue that Arcia can gain command of the strike zone, improving his jugdment of balls and strikes (which some might call instinct), then why can he not learn how to get to more fly balls and have better command of the outfield?

I fail to see how instinct, foot speed, angles, and athleticism are not as important to infielders as they are to outfielders. If anything I'd think infielders need to be more agile and athletic than outfielders (this ain't no beer leaguer saying this). Baseball is a game of angles and footwork all across the diamond. I don't think anyone is saying Arcia can turn into a gold glover, but if he gets lots and lots of repetitions, good coaching, and internalizes the notion that he's a big league outfielder, I think he can make it (I'd also argue that Arcia does have the athleticism and foot speed to be "molded" into an outfielder).

Were you comparing Dozier's base running before and after Molitor's arrival? Because my reading led me to believe you were looking at 2014 only. Also, you'd need to expand measurement to every Twin that got on base in 2014, not just Dozier. Finally, to see if there was an effect of Molitor on the Twins' base running, you 'd need to compare their leads/jumps/slides, etc. to other teams in baseball to control for broader innovations and changing approaches to base running in general. It's useful to look at video and compare a team's stats from year to year, but there are a whole mess of variables you need to control for if you're hoping to make some causal claim of Molitor's presence on the coaching staff. Just saying. While trying to bring quantitative analysis into the conversation is somewhat constructive, and you did present a really thoughtful discussion, I think to really determine the effects we're talking about here would quickly lead straight down a rabbit hole. Go Twins! Go Molitor!

Why is it that (many) people were adamant about going outside the organization for a manager, but when it comes to the coaching staff the general sentiment seems to be for yet another old boys reunion tour? Also, if getting the band back together is a terrible idea for the players, why would it be a good idea to do the same with the coaching staff? Personally, I think the organization needs to get much more creative than that if they want to have even a chance to compete in today's game.

I can't help but feel hopeful that a day after the Twins were supposedly going to announce their new manager but wound up failing to do so, Maddon becomes available. Wild speculation on my part, but a guy can hope...

Is Greg Maddux available? He'd be my top choice.