Brad Swanson

I'm sure everyone will have very rational feelings about this.

With you, in fact, New Britain in two seasons is a reach. Player development not player acceleration. What's the rush?

This is a really good point. I go back and forth on trading Perkins. He is cheap-ish, and has proved to Gardenhire that he can close games. If the Twins trade him, I would worry that they would replace him with a "proven closer" like Jose Valverde, which would be a downgrade in talent and probably cost more money. Ok, probably not Valverde specifically, but someone like that. That being said, if anyone else who makes less money can close games, I'd shop Perkins to see what can be had for him.

What I have read about Hamilton is that he just doesn't have the natural instincts and movements at shortstop. They seem to want to move him to center to utilize his speed a bit more. His arm is also below average in strength and accuracy. His speed would be wasted at second.

---Yeah the win-now or build-for-tomorrow is a false dichotomy that's thrown out way too often. It doesn't have to be an either/or. The Twins should always be looking to improve themselves now and beyond. IMO, when you start to concede seasons because you've got some grand plan to start winning 3 or 4 years down the road, you're sending the message that it doesn't matter whether you win now or not because you're not trying or expecting to win, and that breeds a culture of losing. Look at the Royals and Pirates who have been trying to "rebuild" under these multi-year schemes for 2 decades now. I view "we're rebuilding" as nothing more than a euphemism for "we suck". But isn't this all just perception? Wouldn't you rather follow a rebuilding team than a sucky team? I agree that you can build for the present and future at the same time, but it is a lot harder to do so. Focusing energy on one or the other just allocates the resources to one area, rather than trying to make sure every move fits both the short term and big picture. I think that is why most teams take one avenue or the other. Those that want the Twins to pick one lane or the other are simply playing the odds, in my mind.

This is my favorite post ever. Figgins had an OPS+ of 54 last year. I think the Twins can let him sign elsewhere and be just fine.

FanGraphs has a pretty extensive look at the how and why of their version of WAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/

I'd like to see what Escobar could do with some consistent playing time. He likely won't set the world on fire, but his defense could help a lot if the Twins go with their usual pitching philosophy.

Not unless you are looking at different ZIPS projections than I am. Carroll - .261/.331/.318 Revere - .285/.325/.332 Florimon - .237/.291/.331 Dozier - No projection Plouffe - .241/.300/.422 Those all look reasonable to me. Carroll is old. Revere's on base is completely dependent on his BA. Florimon and Dozier are unproved and have no minor league track record. Plouffe should have power. These projections are mid-point projections though. There is upside, but I agree that the offense could regress and probably is more likely to regress than improve.

Good stuff here! I want to play for the Twins; I'll beg? Should they give me a contract? Teams can't make decisions based on factors like that. They have to field the best possible team they can. Morneau isn't what he used to be. It's sad, but it's the reality. Span is different because he is younger and in his prime. He might be worth keeping, but Willingham, Morneau, Doumit and the like are only worth keeping around if the team thinks they can content next year.

I am totally with you. Reading your article from March of 2012 was eye-opening. I thought going into 2012 that things would be fine and that 2011 was just a blip. I was wrong. I worry about 2013 as well, but not as much about 2014 and after that. That will change for me depending on the moves they make this winter. If they sign Jeremy Guthrie and Joe Blanton types to 2-3 year deals, I'll start to worry about 2014 and 2015. Those moves do nothing to improve a team by 30 wins. If they sign guys like that, they won't trade Morneau or Willingham, possibly not even at the deadline in July. My biggest worry is that the team is roughly 5 games under .500 around the All-Star Break. This is pretty much what happened in 2011 and the team did not make the moves they needed to make to improve the team in the long-term. Granted, keeping Kubel and Cuddyer gave them more draft picks, one of which ended up being Berrios, but that can't happen this time. If they wait on Willingham, he could start to decline. Honestly, his value is likely as high as it will ever be. If they don't trade Morneau, my worry is that they will re-sign him and that would be a mistake in my opinion. I have a lot of worries! Regardless, the moves they make this off-season need to be shark moves. If they miss out on the big names, they should pass on the lesser names altogether and start a massive overhaul of the roster, in the name of improving the farm system. The farm system is actually on the rise, and infusing it with more talent would make things a lot more interesting come 2014 and beyond. Thanks for the article, I really enjoyed it and it really got me thinking (as you can see)!

Oh, for what it's worth, Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus says he pitches with serious #rig.

If he is in the Majors in 2014, he'll be 21 years old. I am excited about what he did last year too, but I think that is pushing it a lot. If he is in AA by 2014, I'll be more than happy with that. I'd be very surprised if he made it to Ft. Myers in 2013. There just isn't a reason to push him that quickly. The only way it happens is if he is so completely dominant that they can't hold him back any longer.

He throws hard, so that is something. It is certainly better to chances with hard-throwing relievers instead of soft-tossers. His AAA peripherals look pretty decent too. Low risk, so why not?

So, that's something. His AAA stats last year look pretty decent, so why not give him a shot right? He throws hard and every team needs bullpen depth. It's a minor league deal, so no risk. Note - I see a thread on this topic in On The Farm, which is better place for it. Go discuss there and just let this one die. Sorry dudes and dudettes.

This is a huge factor for me too. I don't like the Twins being cheap, but if you bring Sano up for a couple years and he is brutal, you waste two years of his service time and two years of his development. I would feel a lot differently if Sano was 21, played third well and the Twins were a borderline playoff team.

So, is this just a community filled with teachers? The risk with pushing gifted "students" like Sano is that you can burn them out. You want to keep them challenged, but you still need to nurture their developmental and social needs. Sano likely does need more of a cultural adjustment than Harper, and that plays a role in his development. We can't create gaps in his learning

I think I remember either Kevin Goldstein or Jason Parks on an Up and In podcast early in the season hypothesizing on how Sano would do in the Majors. If I remember right, they thought he would hit about .100 and strike out over 300 times. Now, they are obviously just theorizing, but that might not be all that far off. He did strike out 140 times against Low A pitching. This isn't even a critique of his skills, just where he was in his development before the season. He'll work out those issues as he ages and develops.

One other point, regarding Harper, is that Washington was a contending team that needed him in the outfield. The Twins aren't very good and don't really need another CI/DH type right now. Letting Sano develop in the low minors can only help his confidence and help enhance his tools. I'd prefer to see prospects skip higher levels, rather than the lower levels. That is just my preference though.

I am a teacher by trade. I am a teacher period. One of the most important parts of teaching is giving quality feedback. Students need to understand what mistakes they are making and how they can fix them. It is equally important to provide good feedback to students when they do something well. Without feedback, students have a hard time understanding whether or not they met expectations. Grades are given because they are fairly universal. Most people know what an A or an F is. Although, a letter by itself is not effective either. Combining a letter grade with good feedback can help a student understand where they are successful and what they need to work toward. The Twins are a work-in-progress. They need reinforcement for what they are doing well and they need instruction on what they can do better. Who better to give them this feedback than some random Middle School Social Studies teacher with just enough free time to write about the Twins a couple times per week? Can someone mail this report card to the proper place for me? Language Arts Teacher Feedback: The Twins have shown both increased creativity and decreased creativity during the same period of time. Signing a player like Ryan Doumit shows that the Twins are willing to think outside of the backup catcher box. Doumit is versatile enough to play outfield and has enough pop in his bat to DH. Having a player like Drew Butera on the roster as a 3rd catcher shows that the Twins still value that backup catcher role. I'd like to see the Twins think creatively more frequently going forward. Creating some platoons might be a good avenue, rather than employing a bench with mostly utility players. Grade - C Statistics and Probability Teacher Feedback: The Twins seem to be a lot less interested in the statistics part and much more interested in the probability part of this equation. I will say, the Twins seem to be more interested in some of the new ways of statistical thinking, as they seem to be trying to add on-base type players to their lineup (Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, etc) instead of simply looking for guys with high batting averages. I would like to see the Twins continue in this way, over the next offseason. My comment about probability refers to the fact that the Twins seem to think it is good enough to have a 1 in 5 chance of winning a poor Division, rather than trying to build a team that can win a World Series. I would like to see the Twins continue to build a statistically balanced team. In addition, I would like to see the Twins break the American League Central Probability conundrum. Grade - C+ Chemistry Teacher Feedback: I don't see any specific issues with Chemistry on this team. It seems that the manager is well-liked by his players and there doesn't seem to be a particular player that rubs his teammates the wrong way. Even through two consecutive long, losing seasons, the team does play hard. They were trying all the way until the very end, which is commendable. Hopefully this team will be given a chance to show how their chemistry works in more pressure situations going forward. I imagine that there are some players who assume the role of team leaders within the clubhouse. Since I was not invited to the clubhouse, I cannot comment on that area of chemistry. Grade - B Economics Teacher Feedback: Some of the issues the Twins had with economics this year were beyond their control. The team was terrible for the second straight year, which really hurts attendance. Lower attendance means less revenue. Less revenue means a lower payroll. However, the Twins must remember that lowering a payroll for another season will be a major turnoff to the fans. The demand might go down. They can't build another ballpark, so the Twins have to stay creative with their economics. My advice would be to spend the money. Forget about the lower revenue and put money toward the big-league club. A temporary loss of revenue can be made up with future revenue, if the team becomes competitive again. Spend as though the team will be good again. Get the fans energized and keep the demand high. The 2012 Twins were better than the 2011 Twins, but you wouldn't know it from the stands. Invest in pitching. There aren't going to be off-seasons with the quality of starting pitching available very often. Take advantage of your opportunities, Twins. Grade - D+ Health Teacher Feedback: The offense stayed mostly healthy. The pitching was mostly unhealthy. The medical staff was much maligned. I am not going to go through the litany of odd injuries with inaccurate recovery times. Needless to say, this part of Health was not a success. The Twins need to make sure that injuries are diagnosed properly, by their experts. Don't rely on players to be honest about their injuries. Players gon play. The Twins have not been fully healthy for 2 straight years. I will be very interested to see what a healthy 2013 can bring. Grade - D Anthropology Teacher Feedback: The Twins do not seem to have a good handle on the evolution of the game of baseball. They seem to be stuck in an era where "pitching to contact" and "doing the little things" were King. Those things are all well and good, but have not lead to a bit of playoff success for this team. The Twins' bench often consists of players who are just flat out terrible or have but one skill. This works on a good team, but not on a bad team. Perhaps the Twins should look to Oakland and their model of using their bench to create platoons. Instead of having a 3rd catcher, why not sign a lefty who can play 3rd base and let him split time with Trevor Plouffe? Maybe they could find an infielder who can hit for some power? Your middle infielders don't all have to be slap hitters with zero power. Paying close attention to how the game is evolving is key. I am not sure the Twins are doing that. I won't harp on the lack of power pitching. That is much harder to find than we give credit for. However, the offense needs to evolve to make the bench more efficient and a part of the team that can contribute. Grade: Incomplete Architectural Design Teacher Feedback: Target Field is a wonderful place. No one can take that away. The field is beautiful the concourse is easy to navigate. The seats are pointed in the proper direction and there seems to be no bad seat in the house. I have nothing bad to say about Architectural Design. However, Twins, don't rest on this building's charm. The charm will wear off eventually. Pretty soon, everyone will have been there, and done that. When that happens, the team better be watchable. I can sit outside just about anywhere, so that novelty isn't going to cut it forever. Make sure that the product on the field is equal to the product that is the field. Grade - A What grades would you give the Twins?

I am a teacher by trade. I am a teacher period. One of the most important parts of teaching is giving quality feedback. Students need to understand what mistakes they are making and how they can fix them. It is equally important to provide good feedback to students when they do something well. Without feedback, students have a hard time understanding whether or not they met expectations. Grades are given because they are fairly universal. Most people know what an A or an F is. Although, a letter by itself is not effective either. Combining a letter grade with good feedback can help a student understand where they are successful and what they need to work toward. The Twins are a work-in-progress. They need reinforcement for what they are doing well and they need instruction on what they can do better. Who better to give them this feedback than some random Middle School Social Studies teacher with just enough free time to write about the Twins a couple times per week? Can someone mail this report card to the proper place for me? Language Arts Teacher Feedback: The Twins have shown both increased creativity and decreased creativity during the same period of time. Signing a player like Ryan Doumit shows that the Twins are willing to think outside of the backup catcher box. Doumit is versatile enough to play outfield and has enough pop in his bat to DH. Having a player like Drew Butera on the roster as a 3rd catcher shows that the Twins still value that backup catcher role. I'd like to see the Twins think creatively more frequently going forward. Creating some platoons might be a good avenue, rather than employing a bench with mostly utility players. Grade - C Statistics and Probability Teacher Feedback: The Twins seem to be a lot less interested in the statistics part and much more interested in the probability part of this equation. I will say, the Twins seem to be more interested in some of the new ways of statistical thinking, as they seem to be trying to add on-base type players to their lineup (Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, etc) instead of simply looking for guys with high batting averages. I would like to see the Twins continue in this way, over the next offseason. My comment about probability refers to the fact that the Twins seem to think it is good enough to have a 1 in 5 chance of winning a poor Division, rather than trying to build a team that can win a World Series. I would like to see the Twins continue to build a statistically balanced team. In addition, I would like to see the Twins break the American League Central Probability conundrum. Grade - C+ Chemistry Teacher Feedback: I don't see any specific issues with Chemistry on this team. It seems that the manager is well-liked by his players and there doesn't seem to be a particular player that rubs his teammates the wrong way. Even through two consecutive long, losing seasons, the team does play hard. They were trying all the way until the very end, which is commendable. Hopefully this team will be given a chance to show how their chemistry works in more pressure situations going forward. I imagine that there are some players who assume the role of team leaders within the clubhouse. Since I was not invited to the clubhouse, I cannot comment on that area of chemistry. Grade - B Economics Teacher Feedback: Some of the issues the Twins had with economics this year were beyond their control. The team was terrible for the second straight year, which really hurts attendance. Lower attendance means less revenue. Less revenue means a lower payroll. However, the Twins must remember that lowering a payroll for another season will be a major turnoff to the fans. The demand might go down. They can't build another ballpark, so the Twins have to stay creative with their economics. My advice would be to spend the money. Forget about the lower revenue and put money toward the big-league club. A temporary loss of revenue can be made up with future revenue, if the team becomes competitive again. Spend as though the team will be good again. Get the fans energized and keep the demand high. The 2012 Twins were better than the 2011 Twins, but you wouldn't know it from the stands. Invest in pitching. There aren't going to be off-seasons with the quality of starting pitching available very often. Take advantage of your opportunities, Twins. Grade - D+ Health Teacher Feedback: The offense stayed mostly healthy. The pitching was mostly unhealthy. The medical staff was much maligned. I am not going to go through the litany of odd injuries with inaccurate recovery times. Needless to say, this part of Health was not a success. The Twins need to make sure that injuries are diagnosed properly, by their experts. Don't rely on players to be honest about their injuries. Players gon play. The Twins have not been fully healthy for 2 straight years. I will be very interested to see what a healthy 2013 can bring. Grade - D Anthropology Teacher Feedback: The Twins do not seem to have a good handle on the evolution of the game of baseball. They seem to be stuck in an era where "pitching to contact" and "doing the little things" were King. Those things are all well and good, but have not lead to a bit of playoff success for this team. The Twins' bench often consists of players who are just flat out terrible or have but one skill. This works on a good team, but not on a bad team. Perhaps the Twins should look to Oakland and their model of using their bench to create platoons. Instead of having a 3rd catcher, why not sign a lefty who can play 3rd base and let him split time with Trevor Plouffe? Maybe they could find an infielder who can hit for some power? Your middle infielders don't all have to be slap hitters with zero power. Paying close attention to how the game is evolving is key. I am not sure the Twins are doing that. I won't harp on the lack of power pitching. That is much harder to find than we give credit for. However, the offense needs to evolve to make the bench more efficient and a part of the team that can contribute. Grade: Incomplete Architectural Design Teacher Feedback: Target Field is a wonderful place. No one can take that away. The field is beautiful the concourse is easy to navigate. The seats are pointed in the proper direction and there seems to be no bad seat in the house. I have nothing bad to say about Architectural Design. However, Twins, don't rest on this building's charm. The charm will wear off eventually. Pretty soon, everyone will have been there, and done that. When that happens, the team better be watchable. I can sit outside just about anywhere, so that novelty isn't going to cut it forever. Make sure that the product on the field is equal to the product that is the field. Grade - A What grades would you give the Twins?

I am always thinking of Shane Mack, so there's that. I believe its a disorder, but what can you do. I knew I remembered reading something great about Mack, and it was from Aaron Gleeman: http://aarongleeman.com/2011/03/09/top-40-minnesota-twins-24-shane-mack/

I guess AJ and Knoblauch were just kind of jerky. Hunter always stayed a pretty cool bro. Jason Tyner was roughly my size, so I always kind of liked him.

The Scientific Method often leads to sadness and disappointment. It is much more fun to manipulate research, but alas...

Shane Mack was my little brother's favorite player. It was perfect because Kirby Puckett was my favorite and Mack was almost like the little brother to Puckett. Well, maybe that isn't perfection, but it is poetic if nothing else. Regardless, in most cases, there comes a time when the little brother "catches up" to the big brother. They start to be more competitive in head to head sporting events, they get taller/bigger and they get more confidence. Often, you can tell who grew up with big brothers, as they tend to be surprisingly athletic, due to competing against older kids as they grow up. By 1992, you could make the argument that Shane Mack was just as good a baseball player as Kirby Puckett. Some will scoff at that sentence and shut their laptops too strongly, breaking the escape key. Some will immediately run to baseballreference.com to see if I am crazy. Are you back? I'm not crazy, right? Here is a chart for those who are too lazy to hit ctrl+t and then type in baseballreference.com, search Shane Mack, then hit ctrl+t, type in baseballreference.com, search Kirby Puckett, then open Microsoft Excel, create a chart with some stats, then move Google Chrome to one side of your screen, move Excel to the other, then start filling in the chart: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 583] 1992 Age G AB H R HR RBI SB TB AVG OBP OPS+ WAR Shane Mack 28 156 692 189 101 16 75 26 280 .315 .394 139 6.3 Kirby Puckett 32 160 696 210 104 19 110 17 313 .329 .374 139 6.8 [/TABLE] 1992 was a freaking great season for the Twins left and center fielders. Mack was every bit as good as Puckett. He was probably a better outfielder by this time, but you can't just move Kirby Puckett off of center. Mack got on base at a higher rate, stole more bases and was 4 years younger. Kirby Puckett was 2nd in MVP voting that year; Mack didn't receive a single vote. Mack was the younger brother after all. George Bell received some votes that year. Go look at his stats if you want to get a good laugh. Puckett was robbed that year and should have been the MVP of the league. Dennis Eckersley won, and he looks like Gallagher. MVP arguments aside, this was the second consecutive monster season for Shane Mack. He was only going to be 29 years old in 1993 and the Twins were coming off of two straight excellent seasons. Unfortunately, things did not play out as one would have expected in 1993. Mack didn't play as many games, didn't steal many bases, didn't add any power and was just generally less exciting. 1994 was better statistically, but he only played 81 games that year. He did hit 15 home runs and post a 147 OPS+ that year, but that means a lot less over the course of a half season. Although, it wasn't like he was injured the whole time, as most of that season was lost to a Player's strike. Then, Mack signed a monster deal to play in Japan. I was only 12 and my family didn't get the newspaper. We didn't have time, what with all the TV we had to watch, so I have no idea why he signed in Japan. Now, I know it was a pretty big contract and there was some speculation that the strike could last for a long time. By the time he returned to the U.S. , he was older and not really a full-time player. He also was not a Twin, so I didn't care. Mack's 1992 is very interesting to me. The MVP vote shows that he was not a player that was strongly appreciated nationally. He had just played for a World Series championship team and was one of the better players on that team. He had a great balanced game, with power, speed and defense. He is the type of player that would likely have been more appreciated now, with advanced statistics and metrics being more mainstream. He played in the shadow of one of the greatest Twins of all time, but by 1992, he seemed to be reaching his equal. I can't really remember if Shane Mack was appreciated in 1992. I was 10. My brother doesn't remember either. He was 7. I am sure there were some fans that appreciated him. My brother did, although neither of us can remember why. I do know that if anyone wants a fairly large volume of Shane Mack baseball cards, I can give you my brother's number.