Brad Swanson

If you gave me a list of outcomes from this weekend's series with the Yankees, I would have ordered their likelihood as such: Yankees sweep. Yankees spontaneously combust; Yankee dust sweeps Twins. Yankees win 2 of 3; Twins win game 2 because all Yankees oversleep. Yankees win 2 of 3 fair and square. Twins win 2 of 3 because all Yankees lock their keys in their cars. Twins win 2 of 3 fair and square. The universe ends abruptly. Twins sweep.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Of course, watching the Yankees yesterday, they suck. The Twins still took care of business and it was fun to watch the Yankees look like a Little League team for a magical Sunday. Here are a few more thoughts from the series: Brian Duensing A couple weeks ago, I posited that if Brian Duensing can't get lefties out, he has no value. Why is Duensing struggling? I looked at his splits versus lefties over the past four seasons: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] PA H% BA OBP SLG 2010 153 15.6 .161 .217 .239 2011 187 20.9 .217 .242 .280 2012 178 24.3 .250 .294 .384 2013 83 29.5 .303 .358 .400 [/TABLE] H% is the percentage of batted balls that went for hits. You can see that his four-year trend does not look great. His hit rate has climbed like... like, really tall stairs and his BA/OBP/SLG have climbed alongside. However, here's another chart that tells a slightly different story: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] PA K% BB% K/BB xFIP BABIP 2010 153 22.2 4.6 4.86 3.13 .204 2011 187 20.3 3.2 6.33 2.89 .261 2012 178 15.7 5.1 3.11 4.04 .274 2013 83 24.4 6.1 4.00 2.63 .400 [/TABLE] Duensing's peripheral stats aren't quite as depressing. In fact, by xFIP, he is actually better against lefties than he has ever been. The increase in his walk rate would be troubling if the sample wasn't so small. His BABIP is sky high and his strikeout rate is higher than ever, so if he has been only unlucky, there is no reason to think he can't return to an being an effective lefty specialist. However, if he is simply getting more hittable, then it might not matter how much his BABIP drops. Again, the sample is small. Roster Moves Oswaldo Arcia got a couple days off this weekend, and he needed them. It looked like he was trying to hit a home run every time up and he was yanking his head toward right field instead of watching the ball hit his bat. Then, he got optioned to AAA on Sunday. I can't say I hate the move, although I would rather see Arcia make adjustments while facing MLB pitching. I understand why the move was made though. I don't really get the Chris Parmelee demotion. Perhaps Parmelee's time to get consistent at-bats with the Twins has passed. He's clearly not in the current plans and he's lost playing time to Clete Thomas of all people. Now, it seems Chris Herrmann and Chris Colabello are coming up and they should both get consistent playing time. Thus, there has to be an odd Chris out. Parmelee may never get a solid two months with the Twins, ever. Things certainly seem to be pointing in that direction. I don't really care about Eduardo Escobar. Mostly because... I like Pedro Florimon I just like him. I know he really isn't a good hitter and he probably isn't a long-term solution at short, but I just like him. He plays great defense and makes some really spectacular plays. He also makes some really tough plays look easy. He's quite streaky at the plate, but he can get some hits here and there. He's second to only Joe Mauer according to Fangraphs' WAR, so he clearly provides value. The Twins will likely look to upgrade at short in the coming seasons, but I wouldn't mind if Florimon is around for a bit longer. Enough love, time for Madness! Random Plug - Grant Brisbee is at it again Brisbee presents a series of images that show what errors look like. It's fantastic. If you read my blog, you probably have noticed that I try to create silly posts like these. However, Brisbee is on a completely different level of silliness and I can't match him. You should just go read/look at this article and have a good laugh. Photo Breakdown! - Oswaldo gets gum Lost in the shuffle of Michael Tonkin's successful debut was a quest for a specific piece of gum that was caught on camera in the background. Here's the proof: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yIGhsns5Jic/UeLhlLwCwMI/AAAAAAAAAyU/0vEGpKQGuXA/s320/arciagum1.PNG If you look, Arcia is pulling out massive quantities of gum. I find it unlikely that he will chew all of them. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kSHdaqVy-c8/UeLhjAzZKAI/AAAAAAAAAyM/mZ1c4G81qps/s320/arciagumpoint5.PNG Now, he seems to be sorting through, likely looking for the flavor of his choice. I hope he finds it. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HSy-eQRzORw/UeLhltzu-TI/AAAAAAAAAyc/IiZI-pOq_0c/s320/arciagum2.PNG It looks like he has, as he conscientiously puts the pieces he will not chew back in the bucket for the next guy. What a dude! Poll Results! Which Twin is most likely to be traded this season? 36 votes Josh Willingham - 10 votes Kevin Correia - 6 votes Mike Pelfrey - 2 votes Ryan Doumit - 7 votes Justin Morneau - 11 votes Losing Morneau would be sad, but hopefully the Twins can bolster the farm system at his expense. I support trading all these players, but I love to wheel and deal. I've added a new poll; please vote when you have a moment. LOL FSNorth http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oS45_Jx58wU/UeLggXoUtNI/AAAAAAAAAyA/7QwgeLgJhi8/s320/lolfsnorth.PNG Hey FSN, what does Paul Goldschmidt look like? Who does he play for? HAHAHA! lol. It is an impressive list though. Link to something stupid I "wrote" Speaking of silliness, I created an all bird all-star team. I think there's some dignified subtlety and I hope you enjoy it. Can birds play baseball? You'll find out. Links to something good I read Twins Daily is dominating the trade deadline talk and speculation. Each MLB team will be featured and sleeper prospects and dream targets are discussed. You can find a new one each day on the front page. Twins Daily member Jorgenswest has also posted some great articles looking at what reasonable return would be for some of the Twins players who may be traded. He looked back at deals for similar players and analyzed those returns. If you didn't see these articles already, you should really check them out. The level of research is really helpful and impressive. He has written three as of now: Brian Duensing Glen Perkins Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey Parting Chart - All-Stars I realized that not only are Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins both from Minnesota, but they both graduated from high school in 2001, as well. Guess who else graduated in 2001? That's right, I did. I played baseball when I was young, too. Now, I'm not going to lie and say I remember playing against Perkins or Mauer or anything like that, but it's certainly possible. Anyway, I created this little chart that highlights our baseball accomplishments, as we will always be linked in baseball history. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] Joe Mauer Glen Perkins Brad Swanson High School Cretin-Derham Hall HS Stillwater Area HS Mounds View HS Class of 2001 2001 2001 College None University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Position Catcher Closer Left Couch MLB Debut 4/5/2004 9/21/2006 4/1/2015 Salary 23 Million 2.5 Million Less than Mauer made yesterday Best Known For Humble Midwestern charm Twitter Presence Putting Twins player heads on bird bodies All-Star Selections Six One Zero Most Impressive Baseball Feat 2009 AL MVP Pitched for Team USA in 2013 World Baseball Classic Caught a spike on a root in center field; hyper-extended knee Endorsements Land O'Lakes Milk Minnesota Twins Ticket Packages Voted for Nader in 2000 Facial Hair Sideburns Neckbeard Can't grow [/TABLE] And now you know that we are three completely different people. Have a nice week, everyone!

Buyers or Sellers The Rockies are sitting just below .500, but they are actually closer to the NL West lead than a Wild Card berth. They haven't made the playoffs since 2009 and their best offensive players are approaching 30. Their farm system is not impressive either, so the future might be now. After finishing with the third worst record in all Major League Baseball in 2012, hovering just below .500 is a large improvement and might make it worth seeing what they can buy with savvy trades. Although, mortgaging the farm system they do have does not seem to be in the cards. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] A recent report from Danny Knobler indicates that they may use this weekend's series against Los Angeles to determine if they are buyers or sellers. Seems like a good idea to hinge that decision on one series. What They Need The Rockies were linked to Ricky Nolasco until he was dealt to their division rival Dodgers, so you know they want starting pitching. Their rotation is surprisingly solid, as they have three starters with an ERA+ above 124. However, Roy Oswalt went on the disabled list this week; he had been pretty awful prior. The Rockies bullpen isn't filled with big names, but they are getting big performances from their closer Rafael Betancourt and their left-handed set-up man Rex Brothers. The rest of the bullpen is less impressive, although they did recently acquire Mitchell Boggs from the Cardinals. Boggs has been atrocious this season, but has had success in previous seasons. Surprisingly, the Rockies may have their greatest need on offense. They are using Todd Helton at first base. That's right, the same Todd Helton who shook Thomas Edison's hand when Edison invented the phonograph. He has been with the Rockies since the Hoover administration, so they might be hesitant to replace him. What Might Work The Rockies haven't been linked to any offensive players via trade rumors, so unless the Rockies are tired of eating dinner at 4:30, they may not be a Morneau match. Morneau is nearly 100 years younger than Helton (actually 7) and has been much more productive this season, with an OPS+ of 101 compared to Helton's 83. The Rockies aren't in the market for a closer, but could use a bullpen arm, most likely from the right side. Casey Fien might seem like a good fit, but his fly ball rate in Colorado could lead to sadness. Of course, that's the Rockies' problem, right? Brian Duensing would become their third best lefty reliever, behind Brothers and Josh Outman. He's probably out. The Rockies could still be in the market for a fifth starter, to replace the ineffective and injured Oswalt. Kevin Correia's a fifth starter and he has NL experience. Win win! Short of a fifth starter or a replacement for Zombie Todd Helton, the Twins and Rockies don't seem like a great match on paper. Sleeper Targets Earlier, I mentioned the Rockies poor farm system. That doesn't mean there aren't a few intriguing names to consider. Here are a few that caught my fancy. Eddie Butler - RHP - High A - 22 years old Butler is rapidly rising through the Rockies' system and rapidly elevating his profile as a prospect along the way. He breezed through low A Asheville posting a sub-2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP before earning a promotion to High A Modesto. At Modesto, he has struck out 55 batters in 52.2 innings pitched, while issuing only 17 walks. Butler has lovely stuff and might top out as a number 3 starter, but he's far from there right now. Jayson Aquino - LHP - Low A - 20 years old 20 years old? Left-handed? Already moved a level this season? Sounds good to me! Aquino is a guile lefty, with a low 90s fastball, projectable changeup and developing curve. In 28 innings this season, he has struck out 21 batters and issued only 6 walks. He just moved up to Low A Asheville and made his debut last Sunday. I don't see any reports of added velocity, so he might be who he is, but a guile lefty can easily slot as a 4th or 5th starter. Juan Nicasio - RHP - MLB - 26 years old You may remember Nicasio from the time he tried to catch a ball with his face. After suffering that extremely scary injury, Nicasio has been far from impressive. However, there's always a chance that getting a pitcher out of Colorado can help turn a career around. Nicasio has really struggled in 2013, but prior to this season he had posted solid strikeout numbers and decent walk rates. As a minor leaguer, he appeared to be capable of even better than that. He's a low risk, high reward target and likely could be had as a reclamation project. Dream Target Trevor Story - SS - High A - 20 years old A top 100 prospect prior to the season, Story is having a dreadful time at the plate. His .212/.285/.358 triple slash hardly screams "dream target." However, a little perspective is in order. He's 20 and playing in High A. He's coming off a 2012 season when he slugged over .500 in full season ball. He's a pure shortstop with a strong arm and good range. He doesn't have a loud tool, but each of the five is average or better. He's going through an adjustment period and now might be the time to pounce. If the Twins traded Glen Perkins for Trevor Story, I would be elated. He could be the Twins' shortstop for a lot of years.