Brad Swanson

The Twins suck. Sorry, had to be said. I do consider myself a bit of a shock-jock, so this is fitting. However, the reward for sucky teams is a good draft pick. I was talking with a friend of mine and he said, "who cares about the draft, it's a total crapshoot." This got me wondering; is the draft a crapshoot? Yeah, probably. However, is the MLB draft more of a crapshoot than the other 3 major sports' drafts? I did some research to see if any one league has a more crapshooty (crapshootish?) draft than any of the other sports. I wasn't able to do any super extensive research, as I do have a pretty awesome social life to maintain (Netflix, Dog Walks, Couch, etc.). As a result, I looked at a 10 year sample of MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA drafts. I looked from 1981 to 1990, so that most players would be done with their careers. I am going to spit this up a bit, to give me time to do my shoddy research properly. I will investigate 3 different factors: · What is the percentage of 1st round picks that made an All-Star team? · How does the average career length of Top 10 picks compare to the average career length of a player in that league? · Where do MVPs come from? While these are obviously not perfect measures, I feel they give some sort of data to look at and then analyze. Some might accuse me of cherry-picking, but I could give one rat's behind about that. This isn't a research journal, last time I checked. So, here are the results: Question 1 - What is the percentage of 1st round picks that made an All-Star team? This was the easy one to figure out. I just looked at draft results, all-star appearances and did some simple division. Full disclosure: Excel did the division for me. Here is a chart of the results: Chart 1 - Percentage of 1st Round Picks that became All-Stars from 1981 to 1990. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 219] MLB Total # of 1st Round All Stars 52 # of 1st Round Picks 269 % of 1st Round All Stars 19.33% NFL Total # of All Stars 118 # of 1st Round Picks 275 % of 1st Round All Stars 42.91% NBA Total # of All Stars 61 # of 1st Round Picks 244 % of 1st Round All Stars 25.00% NHL Total # of All Stars 46 # of 1st Round Picks 189 % of 1st Round All Stars 24.34% [/TABLE] Well, obviously this is a flawed design. This is true for a couple of reasons. Not all drafts have the same amount of rounds. Not all leagues had the same amount of teams. Not all leagues have the same rules for player eligibility. Not all all-stars are created equal. Draft strategies could be evolving and changing since the '80s. However, in a perfect world, the first round would produce the most talent, regardless of these differences. It does appear that in this decade, it was more difficult to find an All-Star in the MLB draft first round than in any of the 3 other leagues first rounds. There doesn't seem to be any trend data throughout the years as the percentage was pretty stable from '81 to '90. Over 40% of first round picks in the NFL became All-Stars. The number is under 20% for MLB, the lowest of the 4 leagues. Obviously, I am using the terms All-Star and Pro-Bowler interchangeably. The total number of All-Stars from the 1st round are pretty comparable when you compare MLB and NHL. However, there were fewer players drafted in the 1st rounds overall in the NHL. So, the 1st round of the MLB draft is a bit of a crapshoot, especially when compared with other leagues. However, does this mean that the top end of the draft is a crapshoot? If not, it might point toward teams being even more likely to try to get the top end picks. Here is another chart: Chart 2 - Number of Top Ten Picks that became All-Stars between 1981-1990. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 231] MLB Total # of Top Ten Pick All Stars 30 NFL Total # of Top Ten Pick All Stars 54 NBA Total # of Top Ten Pick All Stars 35 NHL Total # of Top Ten Pick All Stars 43 [/TABLE] Since there were a total of 10 Top Ten picks in each draft, the total number for the decade would be 100. So, all these numbers are equal to the percentages as well. Therefore, we can see that Top Ten picks are easily more likely to become All-Stars than just 1st round picks. That makes sense as the top ten should be the real cream of the crop. However, the gap between leagues widens slightly between the MLB and NFL, significantly between the MLB and NHL, and narrows between the MLB and NBA. When you consider that far fewer NBA All-Stars are named each year, the narrowing seems less significant. 70% of MLB top ten picks failed to become All-Stars. When you think of it that way, it is a bit worrisome for teams looking for All-Star players. My main problem with this data is that the MLB draft is just so much longer than other drafts. The player pool is so much larger. The top ten of 1500 players is a much smaller percentage than the top ten of 250 players. So, I thought it might be interesting to look at a percentage-based player pool. Here is another chart: Chart 3 - Number of Players selected in the Top 5% of Drafts that became All-Stars between 1981-1990. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 199] MLB Total # of Top 5% All-Stars 72 NFL Total # of Top 5% All-Stars 78 NBA Total # of Top 5% All-Stars 32 NHL Total # of Top 5% All-Stars 47 [/TABLE] Just for explanation sake, I took the total number of players drafted, multiplied by 5% and then counted the number of All-Stars taken within those pick values. Ah, perhaps a point in the MLB's favor! When you look at all players selected in the top 5% of these drafts, the number of MLB All-Stars is much higher than the NBA and NHL and right in line with the NFL. Maybe this simply means that we have to consider the size of the player pool, in order to see that the MLB draft is not a crapshoot. Well, maybe not. Here is another chart: Chart 4 - Percentage of Players selected in the Top 5% of Drafts that became All-Stars between 1981-1990. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 559] [/TD][TD]# of Top 5% Picks # of Top 5% All-Stars % of Top 5% Picks All-Stars MLB 538 72 13.38% NFL 167 78 46.71% NBA 79 32 40.51% NHL 123 47 38.21% [/TABLE] Giving you all the data is quite important, eh? Now MLB doesn't look so great. When you look at the top 5% of any NFL, NHL, or NBA draft, there is close to or more than a 40% chance that a team will get an All-Star. In the MLB, that number is under 15%. Yikes. According to this data, if you wanted to draft an All-Star in the 80s, you should have been a terrible team the year before and had a top ten pick. Even then, you were going to fail to get an All-Star 70% of the time. Once you leave the Top Ten, the numbers are pretty awful. There were only 22 players drafted in the first round, but outside the Top Ten from 1981 to 1990 that became an All-Star, only about 2 players per year. It appears that the MLB draft is a bit of a crapshoot, and much more of a crapshoot than any of the other leagues. This does not surprise me though. Well, one part does. The NHL seems like it should have had numbers more in line with MLB. After all, their player pool seems to be the most similar, with high school players and young foreign players making up a lot of their first rounds. I guess the one explanation would be the glut of Club and Junior Level teams that younger players could play for. These types of teams produce a higher level of competition than simply high school teams that future MLB draftees would play for. If I had no life whatsoever, I might investigate High School vs. College, but that seems like a huge undertaking. To me, the MLB draft is more about upside than the others, especially in the very early picks. NFL and NBA teams have the benefit of watching their players in college. The NHL teams can see how players fare in either Junior, Club or College hockey. These leagues can have a pretty good idea of what type of player they are getting. MLB is often relying on high school leagues, which would seem to have the most volatility. The MLB draft lacks certainty, almost by its design and structure. However, I am 100% certain that no team would ever want to create a system where high school players are not drafted, so the uncertainty is here to stay. I wish that I could travel ten years in the future to do this same exercise with the 1991 to 2000 drafts, but many players (especially in the later years) are still active and the data points for All-Star appearances could change over the next few years. Someone please remind me in 2022 that I have work to do. You can see the full charts here, with each year shown individually: Data Please feel free to question my methods and criticize my lack of devotion to the Scientific Method. Part 2 will investigate career lengths in the Top Tens of these drafts.

AJ too. I don't really understand it. I guess Hunter was a more beloved figure while here, so he is remembered more fondly.

2007 was a rare poor season for the Twins in the first decade of the 21st Century. They finished under .500 and in 3rd place. A long-time Minnesota Twin was heading for free agency after the season as well. Torii Hunter was likely the fourth or fifth best player on the team at this point, behind Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Johan Santana and possibly Joe Nathan (I think Hunter was better). In addition, he was 31 years old and slipping defensively from a great centerfielder to an aging centerfielder who probably would benefit from a change to right field. I know that I was personally against signing Hunter to a long-term deal, but Hunter obviously wanted to cash in on what had been a good career to this point. I remember hearing that the Twins offered 3 years and 45 million dollars. I thought that was too high, but the years were not offensive to me. I tried calling Terry Ryan, but realized quickly that I didn't have his number, and that he doesn't care what I think. It was all irrelevant anyway, as Anaheim and Hunter agreed to terms on a 5 year, 90 million (actually 89.5) dollar contract on November 21, 2007. I found this to be laughable, and I was more than relieved that the Twins did not offer anything close to that. I thought that Hunter might do well for the first 2 or 3 years of that deal, and then completely fall off the table as a 35 and 36 year old. Knowing that his defense was slipping a bit, moving him to right field might have made some sense for the Twins. So, I wanted to see how he did against Twin center and right fielders. The results? Well, let's just see, shall we? I took the liberty of making some charts; I hope you don't mind. Chart 1 - Torii Hunter's WAR, compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 341] WAR Hunter Twins CF [/TD] Twins RF 2008 2.6 Gomez 2.6 Span 3.2 2009 3.9 Span 4.1 Cuddyer 2.8 2010 3.7 Span 2.6 Kubel/Cuddyer 0.4 2011 2.6 Span/Revere 4.2 Cuddyer 3 2012 4.4 Span 3.5 Revere 2.7 Total 17.2 17 [TD]12.1 [/TABLE] As you can see, Hunter was more valuable (by Fangraphs' WAR) than either Twins' center or right fielders. Although, it was very close in center field. If nothing else, this chart makes me appreciate just how good and underrated Denard Span is. Hunter has been really consistent over the 5 year deal and definitely exceeded my expectations. Chart 2 - Torii Hunter's Salary (in million dollas), compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 280] Dollas (in mils) Hunter Twins CF Twins RF 2008 16.5 0.4 0.4 2009 18 0.4 7.66 2010 18.5 0.75 13.516 2011 18.5 1.4 10.5 2012 18 3 0.5 Total 89.5 5.95 32.576 [/TABLE] I chose dollas over dollars, because I am currently wearing my trucker cap tilted slightly to the side. As is clearly seen, Hunter has been significantly more expensive than these two Twins outfield positions combined. The center field situation is almost a laughable comparison. So, let's take this one step further. Chart 3 - Torii Hunters WAR/Million Dolla, compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 263] WAR/Dolla Hunter Twins CF Twins RF 2008 0.16 6.50 8.00 2009 0.22 10.25 0.37 2010 0.20 3.47 0.03 2011 0.14 3.00 0.29 2012 0.24 1.17 5.40 Total 0.96 24.38 14.08 [/TABLE] I'm still using dolla instead of dollar, although my trucker cap did fall off. I am still wearing my favorite shirt. This is a rather crude measurement, I admit. However it does show that the Twins got comparable production from these positions and at a much lower price. Over the 5 years Torii Hunter was worth 17.2 WAR. Over that same time, Denard Span was worth 15.6 WAR. He also make approximately 200 billion dollars less (I don't feel like checking my math). Chart 4 - Torii Hunter statistics over the past 5 years [TABLE=class: grid, width: 479] Hunter Totals 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5 Year Total 5 Year Avg Games 146 119 152 156 130 703 140.6 HR 21 22 23 23 15 104 20.8 RBI 85 74 76 80 74 389 77.8 SB 19 18 9 5 9 60 12 OPS 0.810 0.873 0.819 0.765 0.802 0.814 0.814 WAR 2.6 3.9 3.7 2.6 4.4 17.2 3.4 [/TABLE] If you had shown me this chart in 2007, I would have said two things: 1. What is WAR? 2. Wow, that honestly surprises me. Over the last 5 years, Torii Hunter has been a good player. He has been about a 3 and a half win player and has produced good counting stats. He also seems like a really good guy and someone that the Angels like having around. My charts did not measure things like clubhouse chemistry, ballpark factors of anything like that. I am sure there are ways to make the Twins' decision to let Hunter leave look bad. As much as I have grown to appreciate Hunter over the years, I am glad he left. Denard Span has really flourished in his absence and has become an overall more valuable player than Hunter (when you consider salary and age). In addition, he also seems like a good guy. The good guy stuff balances out! Were you sad or glad when Torii Hunter left? Were you mad? Did you feel you'd been had? Don't feel bad. Love, Brad.

2007 was a rare poor season for the Twins in the first decade of the 21st Century. They finished under .500 and in 3rd place. A long-time Minnesota Twin was heading for free agency after the season as well. Torii Hunter was likely the fourth or fifth best player on the team at this point, behind Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Johan Santana and possibly Joe Nathan (I think Hunter was better). In addition, he was 31 years old and slipping defensively from a great centerfielder to an aging centerfielder who probably would benefit from a change to right field. I know that I was personally against signing Hunter to a long-term deal, but Hunter obviously wanted to cash in on what had been a good career to this point. I remember hearing that the Twins offered 3 years and 45 million dollars. I thought that was too high, but the years were not offensive to me. I tried calling Terry Ryan, but realized quickly that I didn't have his number, and that he doesn't care what I think. It was all irrelevant anyway, as Anaheim and Hunter agreed to terms on a 5 year, 90 million (actually 89.5) dollar contract on November 21, 2007. I found this to be laughable, and I was more than relieved that the Twins did not offer anything close to that. I thought that Hunter might do well for the first 2 or 3 years of that deal, and then completely fall off the table as a 35 and 36 year old. Knowing that his defense was slipping a bit, moving him to right field might have made some sense for the Twins. So, I wanted to see how he did against Twin center and right fielders. The results? Well, let's just see, shall we? I took the liberty of making some charts; I hope you don't mind. Chart 1 - Torii Hunter's WAR, compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 341] WAR Hunter Twins CF [/TD] Twins RF 2008 2.6 Gomez 2.6 Span 3.2 2009 3.9 Span 4.1 Cuddyer 2.8 2010 3.7 Span 2.6 Kubel/Cuddyer 0.4 2011 2.6 Span/Revere 4.2 Cuddyer 3 2012 4.4 Span 3.5 Revere 2.7 Total 17.2 17 [TD]12.1 [/TABLE] As you can see, Hunter was more valuable (by Fangraphs' WAR) than either Twins' center or right fielders. Although, it was very close in center field. If nothing else, this chart makes me appreciate just how good and underrated Denard Span is. Hunter has been really consistent over the 5 year deal and definitely exceeded my expectations. Chart 2 - Torii Hunter's Salary (in million dollas), compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 280] Dollas (in mils) Hunter Twins CF Twins RF 2008 16.5 0.4 0.4 2009 18 0.4 7.66 2010 18.5 0.75 13.516 2011 18.5 1.4 10.5 2012 18 3 0.5 Total 89.5 5.95 32.576 [/TABLE] I chose dollas over dollars, because I am currently wearing my trucker cap tilted slightly to the side. As is clearly seen, Hunter has been significantly more expensive than these two Twins outfield positions combined. The center field situation is almost a laughable comparison. So, let's take this one step further. Chart 3 - Torii Hunters WAR/Million Dolla, compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 263] WAR/Dolla Hunter Twins CF Twins RF 2008 0.16 6.50 8.00 2009 0.22 10.25 0.37 2010 0.20 3.47 0.03 2011 0.14 3.00 0.29 2012 0.24 1.17 5.40 Total 0.96 24.38 14.08 [/TABLE] I'm still using dolla instead of dollar, although my trucker cap did fall off. I am still wearing my favorite shirt. This is a rather crude measurement, I admit. However it does show that the Twins got comparable production from these positions and at a much lower price. Over the 5 years Torii Hunter was worth 17.2 WAR. Over that same time, Denard Span was worth 15.6 WAR. He also make approximately 200 billion dollars less (I don't feel like checking my math). Chart 4 - Torii Hunter statistics over the past 5 years [TABLE=class: grid, width: 479] Hunter Totals 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5 Year Total 5 Year Avg Games 146 119 152 156 130 703 140.6 HR 21 22 23 23 15 104 20.8 RBI 85 74 76 80 74 389 77.8 SB 19 18 9 5 9 60 12 OPS 0.810 0.873 0.819 0.765 0.802 0.814 0.814 WAR 2.6 3.9 3.7 2.6 4.4 17.2 3.4 [/TABLE] If you had shown me this chart in 2007, I would have said two things: 1. What is WAR? 2. Wow, that honestly surprises me. Over the last 5 years, Torii Hunter has been a good player. He has been about a 3 and a half win player and has produced good counting stats. He also seems like a really good guy and someone that the Angels like having around. My charts did not measure things like clubhouse chemistry, ballpark factors of anything like that. I am sure there are ways to make the Twins' decision to let Hunter leave look bad. As much as I have grown to appreciate Hunter over the years, I am glad he left. Denard Span has really flourished in his absence and has become an overall more valuable player than Hunter (when you consider salary and age). In addition, he also seems like a good guy. The good guy stuff balances out! Were you sad or glad when Torii Hunter left? Were you mad? Did you feel you'd been had? Don't feel bad. Love, Brad.

This Tigers team might be the perfect embodiment of Mike Trout's MVP argument. If you think that baseball is solely about offense and that defense and base running mean nothing, Miguel Cabrera is the MVP. If you think there is more to baseball than just offense, you have to give the award to Trout. However, if baseball was just about offense, you would think the Tigers would be a much better team.

I have had the honor of watching the Detroit Tigers play 23 innings in about the last 24 hours. Wait, honor is the wrong word. What is the opposite of honor? The Tigers are brutal. I know their record is much, much, much better than the Twins' record, but they are brutal. They have 3 great starting pitchers: Verlander, Fister and Scherzer (who can be pretty hit or miss). They have three great hitters: Cabrera, Fielder, and Jackson. They have one player who is regularly in the lineup that provides good defense: Jackson. Oh, and Joaquin Benoit is a legitimately good pitcher. Their defense is lower than rat excrement. The infield defense is particularly terrible. I usually enjoy watching good teams play, but either this is not a good team, or this is some crazy exception. I wanted the Tigers to overtake the White Sox, so I could watch Verlander in the playoffs. I am starting to think that having to watch their terrible defense for even one more minute might not be worth watching one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Am I missing something, or is Detroit just an awful team masquerading as a decent team? If Detroit and Chicago are the class of this division, then how bad are the Twins and Indians?

I have had the honor of watching the Detroit Tigers play 23 innings in about the last 24 hours. Wait, honor is the wrong word. What is the opposite of honor? The Tigers are brutal. I know their record is much, much, much better than the Twins' record, but they are brutal. They have 3 great starting pitchers: Verlander, Fister and Scherzer (who can be pretty hit or miss). They have three great hitters: Cabrera, Fielder, and Jackson. They have one player who is regularly in the lineup that provides good defense: Jackson. Oh, and Joaquin Benoit is a legitimately good pitcher. Their defense is lower than rat excrement. The infield defense is particularly terrible. I usually enjoy watching good teams play, but either this is not a good team, or this is some crazy exception. I wanted the Tigers to overtake the White Sox, so I could watch Verlander in the playoffs. I am starting to think that having to watch their terrible defense for even one more minute might not be worth watching one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Am I missing something, or is Detroit just an awful team masquerading as a decent team? If Detroit and Chicago are the class of this division, then how bad are the Twins and Indians?

I'm sitting here watching Samuel Deduno regress before my very eyes. In a way, it is sad because it would be fun for a 29 year old journeyman pitcher to suddenly harness the talent that he obviously has and become a dominant starter. The reality is that this rarely happens and while Deduno's results were good in his first couple months, the underlying stats did not support his success. He still walks way too many batters and doesn't strike enough batters out to mask it. He is starting to give up home runs and getting fewer double plays. All in all, it seems he is the exact type of pitcher that gets released by a couple of bad teams before turning 30. I worry that if Deduno is in the rotation next year, he will be nothing but frustrating for fans. All that being said, if there aren't a lot of options, why not give him a chance? Maybe an off-season working on his control could make him a serviceable pitcher. But, how many off-seasons has he already had to try to work on control? It seems hard to believe that he will suddenly become a consistent pitcher at age 30. The few dominant starts that he had were fun, but these blowup starts are not. What does everyone else think? It is a sad state in this franchise when a guy with a 4.5 ERA and 1.55 WHIP is maybe the second best option for a rotation spot next year.

I'm sitting here watching Samuel Deduno regress before my very eyes. In a way, it is sad because it would be fun for a 29 year old journeyman pitcher to suddenly harness the talent that he obviously has and become a dominant starter. The reality is that this rarely happens and while Deduno's results were good in his first couple months, the underlying stats did not support his success. He still walks way too many batters and doesn't strike enough batters out to mask it. He is starting to give up home runs and getting fewer double plays. All in all, it seems he is the exact type of pitcher that gets released by a couple of bad teams before turning 30. I worry that if Deduno is in the rotation next year, he will be nothing but frustrating for fans. All that being said, if there aren't a lot of options, why not give him a chance? Maybe an off-season working on his control could make him a serviceable pitcher. But, how many off-seasons has he already had to try to work on control? It seems hard to believe that he will suddenly become a consistent pitcher at age 30. The few dominant starts that he had were fun, but these blowup starts are not. What does everyone else think? It is a sad state in this franchise when a guy with a 4.5 ERA and 1.55 WHIP is maybe the second best option for a rotation spot next year.

Thank you for the compliment, and please apologize to your students for me. Part 2 - coming soon?!?

Miguel Sano steps into the box. He is just a huge man. The game is tied at 1 and the opposing pitcher is locked in, but Sano already has 3 hits, including a double that hit the top of the fence. The pitcher has been working him away, and Sano is taking what he is getting, driving all three hits to right-center. He really has become a good all-around hitter in this league. The pitcher deviates from the game plan for just one pitch, comes inside, and Sano absolutely launches it to the seats in left field. He just drilled his 11th home run in 30 games and raised his batting average over .350. Midway Stadium just can't contain him. When Miguel Sano was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2009 he was only 16 years old. He was being pursued by more famous teams, but ultimately signed with the Minnesota Twins for just over 3 million dollars. He wasn't the giant man that he is today, but you could see the size and strength coming. He started at third base and showed that he could handle the position, but maybe not at a high level. He wasn't terrible though. Besides, his glove was not the tool that got him signed. His power looked like it could become legendary. By 2012, he was the number one prospect in the Twins system. He was already showing that great power. In 2012, he hit A ball and kept the power going, hitting 28 home runs. There were some signs that he was not a complete prospect though. He had some strikeout issues and was making a lot of errors at third base. Some thought that he might end up in the outfield, possibly first base, and maybe even DH. However, the kind of power he had was something that could not be ignored. 2013 brought Sano to high A, where he didn't do anything to hurt his prospect standing. In 2014, Sano hit AA. He kept up that power to such a degree that he earned a surprising call-up to AAA in July. He struggled there, but it was also important to remember that he was only 21 years old, and in the Twins system, he moved about as quickly as any prospect can. By 2015, he was ready for a full year of AAA. By now, the hype machine was in full force. Twins fans had gotten used to losing over the past five years, and they were ready for something exciting. Now 22 years old, Sano would spend a full season at AAA, before earning a September call-up late in 2015. When he stepped into the batter's box, Twins fans serenaded him with applause, clearly ready for the next big thing to take his rightful place in Twins history. As if it were scripted, Sano launched the 3rd pitch he saw into the left field bleachers. As he rounded the bases, every fan was convinced they were watching the next Twins superstar. Struggles are very normal for young players. Sano was an early Rookie of the Year favorite in 2016. Instead, many of the issues that scouts were worried about early in his career started to surface. It became clear, early on, that he could not handle third base in the majors. He made 9 errors in April and was splitting time at 1B and DH by July. His power was still there. He finished the year with 21 home runs; definitely not a terrible for a 23 year old rookie. He also struck out 195 times and did not walk much at all. He ended with a sub .800 OPS and did not finish in the top five in Rookie of the Year voting. 2017 and 2018 were very similar seasons. Sano showed great power, but little else. By 2018, he was a DH, and he didn't hit enough to play that position. By age 26, he was in danger of being released off the 40-man roster altogether. A brief power surge at the end of 2019 kept him in the Twins plans for at least one more year. When he didn't hit as a 27 year old, he didn't survive the offseason with the Twins, being traded for a AA pitcher that threw strikes. Sano bounced around to 3 different teams over the next two years, never even showing the power that made him an elite prospect. He simply could not make contact. When you add that to his lack of any sort of defense, he was no longer a major leaguer. Which brings us back to Midway Stadium. Baseball fans in Minnesota are finally enjoying Miguel Sano. He is killing the pitching in this independent league, and some are whispering that he might get a chance with an MLB club next Spring Training as a 32 year old. In many ways, he is a success. He has spent half of his life playing professional baseball. His prospect status helped him earn more money that he likely would have had he not played baseball. He might even get another shot in the majors. However, if you ask any Twins fan, they will more than likely call him a bust. The great hope that never materialized. Once considered the building block that would lead the Twins back to the top of the Central Division, Miguel Sano is now rounding the bases after a monster home run. There is a giant pig statue in the background and the PA guy announces every train that passes by. While only about 10 miles from Target Field, it has to feel like a million miles from Major League Baseball. This is often a reality in the prospect world. No one really knows what the future holds. For Miguel Sano, hopefully the power that he is showing in this rundown stadium will translate in Spring Training and help him back onto a Major League roster. Regardless, the lofty expectations that were never met, were unlikely to ever be met in the first place. This is the first part in a 4 part series. Don't be depressed, it gets better...

Miguel Sano steps into the box. He is just a huge man. The game is tied at 1 and the opposing pitcher is locked in, but Sano already has 3 hits, including a double that hit the top of the fence. The pitcher has been working him away, and Sano is taking what he is getting, driving all three hits to right-center. He really has become a good all-around hitter in this league. The pitcher deviates from the game plan for just one pitch, comes inside, and Sano absolutely launches it to the seats in left field. He just drilled his 11th home run in 30 games and raised his batting average over .350. Midway Stadium just can't contain him. When Miguel Sano was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2009 he was only 16 years old. He was being pursued by more famous teams, but ultimately signed with the Minnesota Twins for just over 3 million dollars. He wasn't the giant man that he is today, but you could see the size and strength coming. He started at third base and showed that he could handle the position, but maybe not at a high level. He wasn't terrible though. Besides, his glove was not the tool that got him signed. His power looked like it could become legendary. By 2012, he was the number one prospect in the Twins system. He was already showing that great power. In 2012, he hit A ball and kept the power going, hitting 28 home runs. There were some signs that he was not a complete prospect though. He had some strikeout issues and was making a lot of errors at third base. Some thought that he might end up in the outfield, possibly first base, and maybe even DH. However, the kind of power he had was something that could not be ignored. 2013 brought Sano to high A, where he didn't do anything to hurt his prospect standing. In 2014, Sano hit AA. He kept up that power to such a degree that he earned a surprising call-up to AAA in July. He struggled there, but it was also important to remember that he was only 21 years old, and in the Twins system, he moved about as quickly as any prospect can. By 2015, he was ready for a full year of AAA. By now, the hype machine was in full force. Twins fans had gotten used to losing over the past five years, and they were ready for something exciting. Now 22 years old, Sano would spend a full season at AAA, before earning a September call-up late in 2015. When he stepped into the batter's box, Twins fans serenaded him with applause, clearly ready for the next big thing to take his rightful place in Twins history. As if it were scripted, Sano launched the 3rd pitch he saw into the left field bleachers. As he rounded the bases, every fan was convinced they were watching the next Twins superstar. Struggles are very normal for young players. Sano was an early Rookie of the Year favorite in 2016. Instead, many of the issues that scouts were worried about early in his career started to surface. It became clear, early on, that he could not handle third base in the majors. He made 9 errors in April and was splitting time at 1B and DH by July. His power was still there. He finished the year with 21 home runs; definitely not a terrible for a 23 year old rookie. He also struck out 195 times and did not walk much at all. He ended with a sub .800 OPS and did not finish in the top five in Rookie of the Year voting. 2017 and 2018 were very similar seasons. Sano showed great power, but little else. By 2018, he was a DH, and he didn't hit enough to play that position. By age 26, he was in danger of being released off the 40-man roster altogether. A brief power surge at the end of 2019 kept him in the Twins plans for at least one more year. When he didn't hit as a 27 year old, he didn't survive the offseason with the Twins, being traded for a AA pitcher that threw strikes. Sano bounced around to 3 different teams over the next two years, never even showing the power that made him an elite prospect. He simply could not make contact. When you add that to his lack of any sort of defense, he was no longer a major leaguer. Which brings us back to Midway Stadium. Baseball fans in Minnesota are finally enjoying Miguel Sano. He is killing the pitching in this independent league, and some are whispering that he might get a chance with an MLB club next Spring Training as a 32 year old. In many ways, he is a success. He has spent half of his life playing professional baseball. His prospect status helped him earn more money that he likely would have had he not played baseball. He might even get another shot in the majors. However, if you ask any Twins fan, they will more than likely call him a bust. The great hope that never materialized. Once considered the building block that would lead the Twins back to the top of the Central Division, Miguel Sano is now rounding the bases after a monster home run. There is a giant pig statue in the background and the PA guy announces every train that passes by. While only about 10 miles from Target Field, it has to feel like a million miles from Major League Baseball. This is often a reality in the prospect world. No one really knows what the future holds. For Miguel Sano, hopefully the power that he is showing in this rundown stadium will translate in Spring Training and help him back onto a Major League roster. Regardless, the lofty expectations that were never met, were unlikely to ever be met in the first place. This is the first part in a 4 part series. Don't be depressed, it gets better...

Point - The Twins should try to pass Cleveland for 4th place in the Division The final two weeks of the season are extremely important for the Twins' momentum as they move into 2013. Currently, the Twins are in last place in the AL Central and the entire American League. This embarrassing situation is one that the Twins should work hard to remedy over the course of the next two weeks. There are plenty of exciting players to watch on this team and the future seems very bright, even as early as next year. The lineup is great and the bullpen has been solid. With just a couple starting pitchers, this team could really contend next year. The Twins need to see what they can get from their players in critical games. Placing high importance on finishing out of last place can potentially replicate future important September games. If a team is just trying to play out the season, the players learn nothing that they can take with them in the future. Draft picks mean nothing to me, so don't get me started on that topic. Baseball players are drafted so young that they don't contribute for a very long time. Why would the Twins sacrifice the chance to build momentum and confidence for a guy that might not play a game until 2017? What is really the difference between the 5th overall pick and the 8th overall pick? It is all just a huge crapshoot and not worth purposely losing games over. Most draft picks flame out anyway, right? Also, fans aren't going to stick around if a team is terrible and finishing in last place each year. If this team doesn't show some level of growth, fans are going to stop going to games, buying drinks and expensive memorabilia and might even stop watching altogether. A 4th place finish is a step in the right direction for fans as well. This needs to be seen and measured, or fans will stop supporting a loser. It all boils down to, do you want to cheer for a last place team? I would prefer to cheer for a team that is not in last place. A 4th place team is closer to the ultimate goal of making the playoffs than a 5th place team. With a few games of improvement next year, this could be a Wild Card team or maybe even a team that sneaks into the Division title. After all, isn't the goal in baseball to make the playoffs? Counterpoint - 4th Place is not a thing 2nd Place is the first loser. That's a No Fear shirt. What is 4th place? Who cares? The Twins should be doing everything under the sun to achieve a last place finish. In addition, they should work as hard as they possibly can to finish as far down the standings as they can. Next year is no given and the future of this team lies a long way down the line. Most of these guys won't even be on the team next year. I'd say that half the rotation is gone, some of the lineup is traded and the new guys will be years from helping. This team has to get younger, so anything taken from these last two weeks will be basically irrelevant. Even if they do finish 4th, will that benefit next year's Rochester team? Because that is where quite a few of these guys will be playing if they are still in the organization. Draft picks, on the other hand, are extremely valuable. Top 5 draft picks are even more valuable. I have no proof to support this, but most of the elite players that I watch were drafted very early. You can't sign young talent in free agency, so you have to be able to draft it. This is especially true for 2013, as the steam seems to be that it is another weak draft class. In a weak draft, being near the top is even more important. Fans have really short memories. Did the '91 Twins have issues drawing fans? Once you start to win, the masses come back to the park. Target Field might not be beautiful enough on its own to draw more fans, but it is nice enough to keep people coming pretty regularly. Plus, what fan will honestly be tricked by a second-to-last finish? Will the Twins print 4th place finish t-shirts? Actually, wait, don't give them any ideas. For me, if my favorite team doesn't win the World Series, I don't care where they finish. I am an all or none fan. There has been a lot more "none" in my fandom, but the "alls" were extremely satisfying. My hope is that these struggles pay off in the long term. In the short term, I could care less if the Twins finish 4th, 5th, 11th, 40th or 198th. If they don't win the World Series, I don't care.

Point - The Twins should try to pass Cleveland for 4th place in the Division The final two weeks of the season are extremely important for the Twins' momentum as they move into 2013. Currently, the Twins are in last place in the AL Central and the entire American League. This embarrassing situation is one that the Twins should work hard to remedy over the course of the next two weeks. There are plenty of exciting players to watch on this team and the future seems very bright, even as early as next year. The lineup is great and the bullpen has been solid. With just a couple starting pitchers, this team could really contend next year. The Twins need to see what they can get from their players in critical games. Placing high importance on finishing out of last place can potentially replicate future important September games. If a team is just trying to play out the season, the players learn nothing that they can take with them in the future. Draft picks mean nothing to me, so don't get me started on that topic. Baseball players are drafted so young that they don't contribute for a very long time. Why would the Twins sacrifice the chance to build momentum and confidence for a guy that might not play a game until 2017? What is really the difference between the 5th overall pick and the 8th overall pick? It is all just a huge crapshoot and not worth purposely losing games over. Most draft picks flame out anyway, right? Also, fans aren't going to stick around if a team is terrible and finishing in last place each year. If this team doesn't show some level of growth, fans are going to stop going to games, buying drinks and expensive memorabilia and might even stop watching altogether. A 4th place finish is a step in the right direction for fans as well. This needs to be seen and measured, or fans will stop supporting a loser. It all boils down to, do you want to cheer for a last place team? I would prefer to cheer for a team that is not in last place. A 4th place team is closer to the ultimate goal of making the playoffs than a 5th place team. With a few games of improvement next year, this could be a Wild Card team or maybe even a team that sneaks into the Division title. After all, isn't the goal in baseball to make the playoffs? Counterpoint - 4th Place is not a thing 2nd Place is the first loser. That's a No Fear shirt. What is 4th place? Who cares? The Twins should be doing everything under the sun to achieve a last place finish. In addition, they should work as hard as they possibly can to finish as far down the standings as they can. Next year is no given and the future of this team lies a long way down the line. Most of these guys won't even be on the team next year. I'd say that half the rotation is gone, some of the lineup is traded and the new guys will be years from helping. This team has to get younger, so anything taken from these last two weeks will be basically irrelevant. Even if they do finish 4th, will that benefit next year's Rochester team? Because that is where quite a few of these guys will be playing if they are still in the organization. Draft picks, on the other hand, are extremely valuable. Top 5 draft picks are even more valuable. I have no proof to support this, but most of the elite players that I watch were drafted very early. You can't sign young talent in free agency, so you have to be able to draft it. This is especially true for 2013, as the steam seems to be that it is another weak draft class. In a weak draft, being near the top is even more important. Fans have really short memories. Did the '91 Twins have issues drawing fans? Once you start to win, the masses come back to the park. Target Field might not be beautiful enough on its own to draw more fans, but it is nice enough to keep people coming pretty regularly. Plus, what fan will honestly be tricked by a second-to-last finish? Will the Twins print 4th place finish t-shirts? Actually, wait, don't give them any ideas. For me, if my favorite team doesn't win the World Series, I don't care where they finish. I am an all or none fan. There has been a lot more "none" in my fandom, but the "alls" were extremely satisfying. My hope is that these struggles pay off in the long term. In the short term, I could care less if the Twins finish 4th, 5th, 11th, 40th or 198th. If they don't win the World Series, I don't care.

Yesterday, I posited that I believe that Joe Mauer is great. I stand by this, but I can see why some are frustrated with Mauer. Buster Posey, on the other hand, is seemingly working on wrapping up his first MVP award. Posey hits home runs, catches regularly and seems to be that emotional leader that many fans get behind. In his two healthy seasons, the Giants have won a World Series and are now serious contenders to win another one. So, my question is this - is Buster Posey everything fans wanted from Joe Mauer?

Yesterday, I posited that I believe that Joe Mauer is great. I stand by this, but I can see why some are frustrated with Mauer. Buster Posey, on the other hand, is seemingly working on wrapping up his first MVP award. Posey hits home runs, catches regularly and seems to be that emotional leader that many fans get behind. In his two healthy seasons, the Giants have won a World Series and are now serious contenders to win another one. So, my question is this - is Buster Posey everything fans wanted from Joe Mauer?

I'm absolutely with OldManWinter here. In 2011, the snarky "iron man" remark would have been more justifiable. I would have still disagreed, but I could have seen that side of an argument. This year, the comment is unfounded and somewhat unfair. Last year, he had a bad knee. I had a bad knee a few months ago and I could barely use the stairs. I can't imagine trying to catch.

My Father-in-Law sent me a text yesterday afternoon. Here is what it said: "I see iron man Mauer has missed five straight. Most overpaid player in the game. Have a great weekend." The "have a great weekend" part was much appreciated, but the rest of the text just made me shake my head. I want to address each part of this text, as I think these are common sentiments expressed by Twins fans. 1. Iron Man quip. Mauer plays a lot of games for a catcher. He has had years when he has missed time due to injury. That does not make him an uncommon player. A lot of guys get hurt. However, in the years when he has been relatively healthy, he has played the following amount of games: 2005 - 131 games, 116 at catcher 2006 - 140 games, 120 at catcher 2008 - 146 games!!!, 139 at catcher!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2009 - 137 games (MVP season, didn't play until May), 109 at catcher 2010 - 137 games, 112 at catcher 2012 - 131, on pace for about 140, 68 at catcher I realize he doesn't play 162 games per year, but no catcher does. Now, I will admit that his games played figures should rise as he transitions from a catcher to more of a catcher/1st baseman, but the other years, he was primarily catching. Those games played figures are pretty in line with the figures put up by most starting catchers. 2. Most overpaid player in MLB quip. My Father-in-Law doesn't know who Vernon Wells is. It makes for a hard argument, which is why I didn't simply respond. However, Wells, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira all make more money than Joe Mauer. At this point in their careers, all are inferior players to Mauer. 3. Nothing in particular Joe Mauer still gets on base at a higher rate than any other player in baseball. While he may not be a 162 game catcher who puts up 30 homeruns per year, he is still an extremely good player. The value he may give up as a player, he brings back to the franchise in marketability. He is far from overpaid. Joe Mauer is a rare player. This type of franchise player comes around about once in a generation. This is not to say that he cannot be criticized, but the criticisms should be founded. Just enjoy him while you can. I think this response might be too many characters for a text.

My Father-in-Law sent me a text yesterday afternoon. Here is what it said: "I see iron man Mauer has missed five straight. Most overpaid player in the game. Have a great weekend." The "have a great weekend" part was much appreciated, but the rest of the text just made me shake my head. I want to address each part of this text, as I think these are common sentiments expressed by Twins fans. 1. Iron Man quip. Mauer plays a lot of games for a catcher. He has had years when he has missed time due to injury. That does not make him an uncommon player. A lot of guys get hurt. However, in the years when he has been relatively healthy, he has played the following amount of games: 2005 - 131 games, 116 at catcher 2006 - 140 games, 120 at catcher 2008 - 146 games!!!, 139 at catcher!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2009 - 137 games (MVP season, didn't play until May), 109 at catcher 2010 - 137 games, 112 at catcher 2012 - 131, on pace for about 140, 68 at catcher I realize he doesn't play 162 games per year, but no catcher does. Now, I will admit that his games played figures should rise as he transitions from a catcher to more of a catcher/1st baseman, but the other years, he was primarily catching. Those games played figures are pretty in line with the figures put up by most starting catchers. 2. Most overpaid player in MLB quip. My Father-in-Law doesn't know who Vernon Wells is. It makes for a hard argument, which is why I didn't simply respond. However, Wells, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira all make more money than Joe Mauer. At this point in their careers, all are inferior players to Mauer. 3. Nothing in particular Joe Mauer still gets on base at a higher rate than any other player in baseball. While he may not be a 162 game catcher who puts up 30 homeruns per year, he is still an extremely good player. The value he may give up as a player, he brings back to the franchise in marketability. He is far from overpaid. Joe Mauer is a rare player. This type of franchise player comes around about once in a generation. This is not to say that he cannot be criticized, but the criticisms should be founded. Just enjoy him while you can. I think this response might be too many characters for a text.

It is common in human nature to be prideful and to want to demonstrate one's abilities. When a person learns a skill, they want to demonstrate that they have that skill. Just look inside any college dorm, and see which dudes learned how to play guitar. It is also very normal for humans to overestimate their abilities to perform certain skills. Often, we can only compare our level of ability to those around us. If those around us cannot play guitar, our skills look better by comparison. On the flip side, when a person is part of a group, they often will try to either prove they have the same skills as the rest of the group, or they will learn a new skill that the group does not possess, in order to stand out. This concept fits very well in the group of baseball players. If you narrow down even further, it is very interesting to look at a very select group of players: Major League Baseball players. It is common to hear of MLB players belonging to a "fraternity" of sorts. Anyone good enough to get to the big leagues is part of a very select group. These people are the best baseball players in all of the World. In fact, anyone good enough to get to the MLB is an elite baseball player. This includes Nick Blackburn and Nick Punto. Making it to that level means that the player is elite. However, that does not mean that these elite baseball players do not have deficiencies. Alfred Adler, a well-known Psychologist from the late 1800s, early 1900s, came up with the concept of psychological compensation. He believed that human existence was all driven toward perfection. He felt that people respond to inferiority by compensating. He took this a step further with the concept of organ inferiority, where all people are born with weaker and stronger parts of their anatomy and physiology. These things could be heart murmurs, stutters, ability to add muscle mass or the inability to add muscle mass. He felt that humans compensate for weaker organs by focusing much more on those stronger organs. Rather than trying to improve what a person cannot do, they focus on what they can do, and make it even better. Ok, Psychology lesson over. However, I do feel that this theory applies in baseball and that it applies differently to different players on this Twins team. In my opinion, some players take the route that Adler suggests. However, I feel that some players go the complete opposite route and that hurts them as players. Let's investigate a couple of examples that support Adler's theory and a couple that do not. Does not support Adler's Theory Ben Revere's Arm I was watching a recent game, I think it might have been Friday, and Revere made what many would consider to be a bad play. He fielded a fly ball deep in left-center field with runners on 1st and 2nd. He caught the ball and then immediately tried to throw the runner attempting to advance to 3rd. As Dick Bremer said, the throw got there on four bounces. Bremer and Bert Blyleven spent the next few sentences talking about what a bad play it was, based on the fact that the bad throw allowed the runner on 1st to also move up a base. Getting the ball to the cut-off man would have stopped that runner from advancing. There is a logical psychological explanation for this throw. Ben Revere, for all his strengths, has two major weaknesses - his arm and his power. It is odd to look at him, as he is a well-built individual. However, some people just have weaker organs. Revere's arm isn't going to get a whole lot stronger. If it didn't in his first 24 years on the planet, it is unlikely to get much stronger as he gets older. However, Revere can take this weakness in two ways. He can work hard to perfect the mental aspect of hitting cut-off men instead of trying to throw everyone out, or he can assume that his hard physical work is going to actually make his arm stronger. Odds are, he is better off throwing to the right player and taking what he can from his arm. In the heat of the moment, will pride or compensation take over? The interesting thing about Revere is that he does seem to know his limitations as a hitter. He doesn't have much power at all, so he drives the ball downward, into the ground, in an effort to use his speed effectively. In addition, he uses his great contact skills to foul off pitches, until he gets one that he can do something with. This creates a player that will never have traditional power numbers, but one that can get to second base with relative consistency either by grounding/lining doubles down the lines or by hitting singles and using his speed to get to second base via a stolen base. Regardless, if Revere can take his smart hitting approach with him into the field, he can better compensate for his lack of throwing strength. Pitchers' Control This might be more of a coaching/player development/player personnel issue than an actual issue with the players, but it does seem that this current Twins rotation has a lot of nibblers. I would identify Liam Hendriks, Cole De Vries, Esmerling Vasquez and P.J. Walters in this way. NIbblers try to be too refined in the strike zone, hitting corners and edges, presumably to try to get hitters called out on strikes without swinging. This style does not really fit the "pitch to contact" Twins' philosophy. As a result, there seems to be a disconnect between the type of pitchers the Twins have and the type of pitchers the Twins want to have. Do these pitchers overcompensate for their lack of natural ability by nibbling? Probably. They have good control, but mediocre raw stuff. Therefore, they try to be too fine around the strike zone. This can run up large pitch counts. Plus, good hitters just take those marginal pitches or simply foul them off. Eventually, you either have to throw and obvious ball or an obvious strike. The results haven't been great when it comes to that. When you think about it, marginal stuff is marginal stuff whether it is on the corners or not. For these pitchers, the "pitch to contact" strategy that we all make fun of, might be a better option. If they trust their defense over their stuff, they may at least luck into some success. Support Adler's Theory Joe Mauer's Power For my money, Joe Mauer supports this theory better than any player I have ever watched. Joe Mauer knows exactly what he is good at, and what he is not good at. Mauer knows that he does not have the range to play the outfield, which is why he resisted that move a couple years ago. He does know that he has the ability to play first base, so he supported that change. In fact, he has worked to get better as a first baseman, which supports this theory. As a hitter, Joe Mauer knows his limitations better than anyone. In fact, he knows his limitations so well, that he will actually take strikes, rather than swing. He knows which pitches he can drive and he doesn't deviate from his game plan. He also knows where his power lies. He knows that he has gap power and opposite-field power. He rarely tries to pull a ball over the fence, because he simply isn't that type of player. Joe Mauer knows who he is and he doesn't really seem to care what everyone else wants him to be. Josh Willingham's Strikeouts and Defense On the opposite side of the batter's box, Josh Willingham epitomizes the three true outcomes hitter. He walks a lot, he strikes out a lot and he hits a lot of home runs. He could try to change his approach and add 30 points to his batting average, but he likely does not know how that would affect his ability as a hitter. Instead, he emphasizes his natural power and uses his good batting eye to get on base via the walk. He doesn't seem to worry too much about the strikeouts, and they don't really affect his overall value all that much. In the field, Willingham doesn't have the arm or range for right field. Therefore, he stays in left field. This hurts his versatility, but allows him to play a position that he is comfortable with. Rather than try to learn a new position, Willingham sticks with his "strengths" and stays in left field. So while it is human nature to try to show off one's abilities, it should also be human nature to try to mask deficiencies. Players that successfully mask their deficiencies can hide what they can't do and then we only remember what they can do. They emphasize their strengths and become better players, if not always complete players. Players that don't learn to play to their strengths often show major holes in their games that may never be fixable and may never have been fixable in the first place. Ben Revere will never have a cannon, but that doesn't mean he can't hit a cutoff man. These are just a few examples, can you think of any others?

It is common in human nature to be prideful and to want to demonstrate one's abilities. When a person learns a skill, they want to demonstrate that they have that skill. Just look inside any college dorm, and see which dudes learned how to play guitar. It is also very normal for humans to overestimate their abilities to perform certain skills. Often, we can only compare our level of ability to those around us. If those around us cannot play guitar, our skills look better by comparison. On the flip side, when a person is part of a group, they often will try to either prove they have the same skills as the rest of the group, or they will learn a new skill that the group does not possess, in order to stand out. This concept fits very well in the group of baseball players. If you narrow down even further, it is very interesting to look at a very select group of players: Major League Baseball players. It is common to hear of MLB players belonging to a "fraternity" of sorts. Anyone good enough to get to the big leagues is part of a very select group. These people are the best baseball players in all of the World. In fact, anyone good enough to get to the MLB is an elite baseball player. This includes Nick Blackburn and Nick Punto. Making it to that level means that the player is elite. However, that does not mean that these elite baseball players do not have deficiencies. Alfred Adler, a well-known Psychologist from the late 1800s, early 1900s, came up with the concept of psychological compensation. He believed that human existence was all driven toward perfection. He felt that people respond to inferiority by compensating. He took this a step further with the concept of organ inferiority, where all people are born with weaker and stronger parts of their anatomy and physiology. These things could be heart murmurs, stutters, ability to add muscle mass or the inability to add muscle mass. He felt that humans compensate for weaker organs by focusing much more on those stronger organs. Rather than trying to improve what a person cannot do, they focus on what they can do, and make it even better. Ok, Psychology lesson over. However, I do feel that this theory applies in baseball and that it applies differently to different players on this Twins team. In my opinion, some players take the route that Adler suggests. However, I feel that some players go the complete opposite route and that hurts them as players. Let's investigate a couple of examples that support Adler's theory and a couple that do not. Does not support Adler's Theory Ben Revere's Arm I was watching a recent game, I think it might have been Friday, and Revere made what many would consider to be a bad play. He fielded a fly ball deep in left-center field with runners on 1st and 2nd. He caught the ball and then immediately tried to throw the runner attempting to advance to 3rd. As Dick Bremer said, the throw got there on four bounces. Bremer and Bert Blyleven spent the next few sentences talking about what a bad play it was, based on the fact that the bad throw allowed the runner on 1st to also move up a base. Getting the ball to the cut-off man would have stopped that runner from advancing. There is a logical psychological explanation for this throw. Ben Revere, for all his strengths, has two major weaknesses - his arm and his power. It is odd to look at him, as he is a well-built individual. However, some people just have weaker organs. Revere's arm isn't going to get a whole lot stronger. If it didn't in his first 24 years on the planet, it is unlikely to get much stronger as he gets older. However, Revere can take this weakness in two ways. He can work hard to perfect the mental aspect of hitting cut-off men instead of trying to throw everyone out, or he can assume that his hard physical work is going to actually make his arm stronger. Odds are, he is better off throwing to the right player and taking what he can from his arm. In the heat of the moment, will pride or compensation take over? The interesting thing about Revere is that he does seem to know his limitations as a hitter. He doesn't have much power at all, so he drives the ball downward, into the ground, in an effort to use his speed effectively. In addition, he uses his great contact skills to foul off pitches, until he gets one that he can do something with. This creates a player that will never have traditional power numbers, but one that can get to second base with relative consistency either by grounding/lining doubles down the lines or by hitting singles and using his speed to get to second base via a stolen base. Regardless, if Revere can take his smart hitting approach with him into the field, he can better compensate for his lack of throwing strength. Pitchers' Control This might be more of a coaching/player development/player personnel issue than an actual issue with the players, but it does seem that this current Twins rotation has a lot of nibblers. I would identify Liam Hendriks, Cole De Vries, Esmerling Vasquez and P.J. Walters in this way. NIbblers try to be too refined in the strike zone, hitting corners and edges, presumably to try to get hitters called out on strikes without swinging. This style does not really fit the "pitch to contact" Twins' philosophy. As a result, there seems to be a disconnect between the type of pitchers the Twins have and the type of pitchers the Twins want to have. Do these pitchers overcompensate for their lack of natural ability by nibbling? Probably. They have good control, but mediocre raw stuff. Therefore, they try to be too fine around the strike zone. This can run up large pitch counts. Plus, good hitters just take those marginal pitches or simply foul them off. Eventually, you either have to throw and obvious ball or an obvious strike. The results haven't been great when it comes to that. When you think about it, marginal stuff is marginal stuff whether it is on the corners or not. For these pitchers, the "pitch to contact" strategy that we all make fun of, might be a better option. If they trust their defense over their stuff, they may at least luck into some success. Support Adler's Theory Joe Mauer's Power For my money, Joe Mauer supports this theory better than any player I have ever watched. Joe Mauer knows exactly what he is good at, and what he is not good at. Mauer knows that he does not have the range to play the outfield, which is why he resisted that move a couple years ago. He does know that he has the ability to play first base, so he supported that change. In fact, he has worked to get better as a first baseman, which supports this theory. As a hitter, Joe Mauer knows his limitations better than anyone. In fact, he knows his limitations so well, that he will actually take strikes, rather than swing. He knows which pitches he can drive and he doesn't deviate from his game plan. He also knows where his power lies. He knows that he has gap power and opposite-field power. He rarely tries to pull a ball over the fence, because he simply isn't that type of player. Joe Mauer knows who he is and he doesn't really seem to care what everyone else wants him to be. Josh Willingham's Strikeouts and Defense On the opposite side of the batter's box, Josh Willingham epitomizes the three true outcomes hitter. He walks a lot, he strikes out a lot and he hits a lot of home runs. He could try to change his approach and add 30 points to his batting average, but he likely does not know how that would affect his ability as a hitter. Instead, he emphasizes his natural power and uses his good batting eye to get on base via the walk. He doesn't seem to worry too much about the strikeouts, and they don't really affect his overall value all that much. In the field, Willingham doesn't have the arm or range for right field. Therefore, he stays in left field. This hurts his versatility, but allows him to play a position that he is comfortable with. Rather than try to learn a new position, Willingham sticks with his "strengths" and stays in left field. So while it is human nature to try to show off one's abilities, it should also be human nature to try to mask deficiencies. Players that successfully mask their deficiencies can hide what they can't do and then we only remember what they can do. They emphasize their strengths and become better players, if not always complete players. Players that don't learn to play to their strengths often show major holes in their games that may never be fixable and may never have been fixable in the first place. Ben Revere will never have a cannon, but that doesn't mean he can't hit a cutoff man. These are just a few examples, can you think of any others?

So, Denard Span just hit a walk-off single to win a pretty exciting game. Walk-offs are always fun, but I am very over the "beat the crap out of the game-winning hitter celebration." First off, Span has had concussion issues and just had a shoulder problem. Seems like hitting him on the head and tugging at his body isn't the smart move. Second, it is played out. The water jug/pie-in-face thing is played out too. Is this the real reason Drew Butera is on the team? Does he have the water jug access keys, just in case? The first player that does something inventive with a celebration will win my respect. The freeze-out after a home run is usually comical. The guy who hit the home run never really knows what to do. If a team ever successfully pulls that off after a walk-off, I would salute. I would like to see an entire team just stand in the background, doing absolutely nothing, while the walk-off hero gives his cliched post-game interview. It would be eerily unsettling. Much better than a pie in the face or some water on their uniform. What celebrations would you like to see?

So, Denard Span just hit a walk-off single to win a pretty exciting game. Walk-offs are always fun, but I am very over the "beat the crap out of the game-winning hitter celebration." First off, Span has had concussion issues and just had a shoulder problem. Seems like hitting him on the head and tugging at his body isn't the smart move. Second, it is played out. The water jug/pie-in-face thing is played out too. Is this the real reason Drew Butera is on the team? Does he have the water jug access keys, just in case? The first player that does something inventive with a celebration will win my respect. The freeze-out after a home run is usually comical. The guy who hit the home run never really knows what to do. If a team ever successfully pulls that off after a walk-off, I would salute. I would like to see an entire team just stand in the background, doing absolutely nothing, while the walk-off hero gives his cliched post-game interview. It would be eerily unsettling. Much better than a pie in the face or some water on their uniform. What celebrations would you like to see?