John Bonnes

Now the Twins must beat and maybe sweep the team that is nine games ahead of them in the AL Central. Whew. If you’re looking for hope here it is: The Royals are 11-17 in September. The responsibility for the slide is entirely on their pitching staff, which had a 3.53 ERA entering September, but a 4.91 ERA in September. So let’s break down the pitching in this three-game set.Chris Young (RH, 3.15 ERA 78K/41BB/117 IP) vs. Ervin Santana (RH, 4.10 ERA, 79K/33BB/101 IP) If Tommy Milone was right-handed, 36 years old and 6’10” he would be Chris Young. OK, he wouldn’t be. He would still be Tommy Milone, because that’s in the premise of the statement. But he would throw as hard as Young. Actually harder, Because Chris Young doesn't throw very hard. That's my point. Young was moved to the bullpen when the Royals acquired Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline, but returned to the rotation last week and threw five innings of no-hit baseball in his first start. His last two games versus the Twins also went very well, completing 11.2 IP and giving up just one earned run. This is going to much trickier to win than it looks on paper. Yordano Ventura (RH, 4.20 ERA, 145K/55 BB/156.1 IP) vs. Tommy Milone (LH, 4.04 ERA, 86K/34BB/122.2 IP) You may have heard that Ventura was struggling this year and sent to AAA. He was – for about 24 hours. The next day the Royals found out that Jason Vargas had a torn left UCL and Ventura was brought back. He’s been a little bit better since then, but was absolutely outstanding in his last start against the Cubs on Monday. He pitched seven shutout innings, striking out six and giving up just two hits. He also might be certifiably insane. If the Twins get worked up about a bat flip, it’ll be interesting to see what could happen if Ventura starts getting all loco. If you’re into anarchy or nihilism or hockey, this is the game I would recommend. By the way, the Royals don’t struggle much with left-handed pitchers, hitting just slightly lower against them. In particular, you might want to do that weird thing you do "for luck" when Lorenzo Cain (934 OPS vs LHs) and Alex Gordon (819 OPS vs LHs) are up. Johnny Cueto (RH, 4.95 ERA, 52K/13BB/76.1 IP) vs. Kyle Gibson? (RH, 3.84 ERA, 145K/65BB/194.2 IP) And if the Twins are facing a must-win game on Sunday, all they have to do is beat last year’s NL Cy Young Award runner-up. Sigh. The good news is that Cueto hasn’t been nearly as good since he joined the Royals. In fact, he had a five game stretch at the end of August and beginning of September in which he was terrible, posting a 9.57 ERA. He’s been better his last three starts, but far from dominant: 3.60 ERA, 11K and 5 BB in 20 IP. The recent improvement is from him not giving up quite as many home runs. If it looks like the Twins are making solid contact (or if the wind is blowing out), their task might not be as hard as it seems. Click here to view the article

Coupla WPA things.... 1. In that Astros/MAriners game, there was a point in the 5th innings where the Mariners were up 6-3 and had a 91.4% chance to win that game. Ugh. http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2015-09-30&team=Mariners&dh=0&season=2015 2. Does anyone know the win percentage of a home team up 2-0 at the bottom of the 1st? I'd love to know, because while that blown replay call only increased the Indians chance by +1%, being called out certainly would have decreased their percentage chance. I wonder just how many % that messed up call was worth. IMHO, that is two times in this series that video replay has screwed the Twins. And I don't mean "got the call write." I mean failed to do what it is supposed to do, which is get the call right.

Good feedback. I wish I had time to respond to it all. A couple of quick shots: Mauer - You can have a lower OPS and still have a bigger impact on games than someone. Whenever I see a comment like "WPA isn't right about this" without a reason why it isn't right, I see it as "I don't like WPA because it contradicts my paradigm." But that should be a starting point. Mauer has not been a table-setter, but he has been an awfully productive contributor offensively because of his opportunism. There is just no way around it. (Now, that doesn't mean anything for next year.) Hicks most improved over Escobar? Maybe. But coming out of last year, I think the league, the team and fans all thought that was a fluke. And this year he's a legitimate stud. I'm not so sure that Hicks won't also be viewed as a bit of a fluke at the end of this year. So maybe he needs one more breakthrough year. Hunter - I'm giving him credit for leadership. I don't know why we feel it is important in other aspects of life but not with a baseball team. Some guys just make the guys around them better sometimes. And when everyone in that clubhouse says that is the case, then that's enough evidence for me. If May was still a rookie.....he probably makes that list. But I don't know who he pushes off. Any other year, I'd be thrilled with Rosario as ROY. That there are two guys that I think have had an even bigger impact is amazing. That there could be a third is crazy.

I don’t have a lot of patience for debates surrounding end-of-year awards. Too often, it becomes a platform for arguing about methodology instead of appreciating the players. But when Seth asks a bunch of us for our end-of-year choices, I’m obliged to reply. He’ll give the overall results next week, but here's the ballot I'm sending to him, as well as my reasoning.MVP Miguel SanoBrian DozierTorii HunterKyle GibsonJoe MauerI’m sure this is blasphemy for some, seeing as Sano has only played for the second half of the year. But I’m right, and you’re wrong. His raw numbers are historically good. His impact offensively in games via WPA dwarfs every other batter on the team. And he is the most rare and valuable of commodities for a Twins fan. His presence in the lineup is something that the Twins haven’t had since … certainly since Kirby Puckett and maybe since Harmon Killebrew. Besides, none of the other guys did much for more than half a year, either. But since I need to give Seth four more…. Dozier still leads the team in OPS among qualified hitter, and his first half was spectacular. Hunter does get some extra credit for his leadership and his overall production in the Twins lineup would arguably put him in the top five anyway. Gibson separated himself from the rest of the starters this year. And in a close race, Mauer gets the wild card last spot, because, he has been clutch this year, more than any player besides Sano. And that’s objective, not subjective. If you don’t recognize it, maybe that’s on you. Best Pitcher Kyle GibsonGlen PerkinsKevin JepsenThere hasn’t been a lot of separation from the pack for the starting pitchers, but Gibson leads the rotation in ERA and IP, so I don’t know who else I’ll give it too. Perkins’ second half has been dismal, but he still has 32 of the Twins 44 saves, so he still gets the nod as the best bullpen guy. But Jepsen makes the list too, and is a close second to Perkins. He not only served in an important role, he did so at the most important of times. Finally, Trevor May gets an honorable mention here. He threw comparable numbers to the other starting pitchers and showed the flexibility to jump into the ‘pen and carry it for a good third of the season. Rookie Miguel SanoTyler DuffeyEddie RosarioSano, duh. I’ll go with Duffey second even though he wasn’t around all year. Like Sano, his impact was just so dominant in the time since he arrived. That puts Eddie Rosario, who has been the most consistent productive rookie on the team, in third place. If you want to list him higher than Duffey, I won’t argue too much. Most Improved Eduardo EscobarAaron HicksMike PelfreyI might be playing a favorite, or possibly wishcasting a bit, I’ll admit. But I never saw this coming from Eduardo Escobar. He’ll fall about 50 plate appearances short of “qualifying” but he would have the second highest OPS on the team while playing a premium defensive position. He wins. I thought Aaron Hicks had a chance to become good, but I didn’t see it happening this early. A 722 OPS while playing very well defensively in center field (+5.8 UZR) is great news for someone who was left behind when the team went north in April. Speaking of guys whose role changed as the season began, I’m giving the third place nod to Mike Pelfrey over Tommy Milone. Pelfrey, if you haven’t noticed, is second on the team in innings pitched and is still posting an ERA around 4.00. He’s been the Twins second best starting pitcher and I should point out that FanGraphs lists his value as being that of a $15.9M pitcher. (That is not a typo.) Milone should get an honorable mention He fought through a demotion and a couple of injuries to become a solid contributor at the back of the bullpen. For a guy who had an ERA over 7 for the Twins last year, that’s a remarkable improvement. Click here to view the article

By the way, was I the only one who thought the video review of that pickoff play call wasn't conclusive?

Thanks. I like playing with this format. Not sure the best way to do it, and it feels like I haven't found it just yet, but it's fun to try.

Since you asked, Mauer's 2-out double that started the scoring in the 1st inning was #27, adding 2.2% to the chances of the Twins winning. These aren't random numbers, by the way. For those who don't know much about WPA, they're generated from historically reviewing thousands of games and computing the results from those games. So in Mauer's case, it comes from this: - A team that is tied in the top of the first with 2 outs and nobody on base has historically won 49.2% of games. - A team that is tied in the top of the first with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd base has historically won 51.4% of games. The difference between those situations is 2.2%, which is how much Mauer's double added to his team's chance of winning that game.

It isn’t just the Twins postseason hopes that are in need of medical attention - the Twins players are too. You can also include my heart in that list if I have to put up with another week of games like the 4-2 win over Cleveland last night. For a complete breakdown, check out Seth’s game story. Instead, we’ll dive into the top ten plays of the game in chronological order, along with what you need to know about each one.Top of the 1st Inning #2 – Miguel Sano doubles, scoring Mauer for the Twins to take a 1-0 lead.(+10.9%) #1 – Trevor Plouffe homers, driving in Sano to give the Twins a 3-0 lead. (+17.0%) The two biggest plays of the game happened within the first five at-bats. That’s both good and bad news. It means the Twins jumped on Cleveland starting pitcher Corey Kluber early, but it also means they were awfully quiet later. The Twins “two-out ambush” - as manager Paul Molitor labeled it - was accomplished entirely by the Twins three best hitters this year with runners in scoring position: Mauer (.935 OPS with RISP) doubled, Sano (1.011 OPS with RISP) did too and Plouffe. (944 OPS with RISP) hit his 22nd home run. Call it luck or a brilliant batting order or clutch-erific clutchiness; it worked tonight. Bottom of the 1st Inning #4 – Francisco Lindor homers, drawing the Indians with two runs, 3-1. (-8.7%) As encouraging as the top of the first inning was, the Twins were still starting a pitcher who had recently been out with a sore shoulder and hadn’t started a game the last two turns through the rotation. Plus, he got knocked around silly in that start, lasting just 1.1 innings. If Milone’s shoulder was still bothering him, it didn’t show. He was aggressive, and after that 3-2 home run he gave up to Lindor, he retired 14 of his next 16 batters. The Twins said last week he would come out of the bullpen the rest of the year, but this raises the question: could he help out this stretched rotaion? Here’s how the next few games look: Download attachment: Last Week Probables.jpg I’m sure there will be those who say Milone should start over Pelfrey, but the guy I’m most worried about is Phil Hughes, who doesn’t have his velocity back yet. Could Milone take Hughes’ (presumed) Saturday start and give Hughes a good two weeks to recover? Could Milone pitch a Game 163 versus the Angels, who have struggled against left-handed pitching this year? Could Hughes take Duffey’s start to save the Twins some innings on his arm? And what of Gibson’s last few starts? Could he use a couple of extra days of recovery? As positively as tonight’s start impacted the Twins playoff hopes, I wonder if the flexibility of having Milone back won’t be more impactful in the future. Top of the 2nd Inning #9 – Torii Hunter doubles to right field to lead off the second inning. (+4.7%) #7 – Torii Hunter picked off of second base (-6.4%) Ugh. It looks like the umpires blew this call and it isn’t clear the Twins coaching staff didn’t, too. Hunter was originally called safe getting back to the bag but the call was reversed upon review. But there are two things about that review: First, I personally didn’t think the review showed indisputable proof that he really was out. But maybe there was a camera angle I couldn’t see. But more damning was that a review isn’t supposed to happen after the pitcher is on the rubber and the batter is in the batter’s box. That happened. But the home plate umpire was looking to the Cleveland dugout and didn’t see it and granted the review. Also, from watching it on television I didn’t see the Twins coaching staff objecting before the review took place. By the way, credit Dick Bremer of Fox Sports North being all over that nuance of the call. I would not have noticed and it wasn’t clear anyone else associated with the broadcast did, either. He called it out, and FSN responded, showing exactly what he was talking about. That pickoff play short-circuited a possible rally that could have drastically changed the game. It will mostly be forgotten after the win, but the Twins had runners on first and second base with no outs when it happened. Also, Kluber looked to be on the ropes. He ended up lasting six innings. Top of the 4th Inning #10 – Eddie Rosario doubled to left to lead off the inning (+4.7%) Rosario eventually came around to score on a Brian Dozier sacrifice fly to give the Twins a crucial insurance run. I just think it’s interesting that his initial hit improved the Twins chances of winning the game by 4.7%, while Dozier’s sac fly only improved their chances by 1.6%. That makes sense to me; the lead-off double is the hard part. The sac fly is just doing one’s job. But I wonder if most see it that way. Bottom of the 6th Inning Jason Kipnis tripled to left to lead off the sixth inning. (-9.1%) This is the hit that cost Milone his 10th “quality start” of the season. He handled it well; Kipnis scored on the next batter to make the score 4-2, but Milone retired that batter and the one following. However Molitor, having watched Milone throw 82 pitches, decided he had pushed his luck enough. Blain Boyer came in to get the final out of the inning. We probably aren’t giving Milone enough credit for the success he’s had this year. He lost about a month to a demotion to Rochester, where he absolutely dominated. He’s missed a little time to some injuries, but came back strong both times. He’s got a 4.04 ERA, has made 21 starts, threw 117 innings, and is within a couple of outs of having as many quality starts as Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Ervin Santana. The biggest improvement in the Twins starting rotation is that they’ve been getting decent starts from the back of their rotation. Unlike previous years, they haven’t had fill-in players that were just getting hopelessly shelled, throwing away games. Milone, Trevor May and Duffey (and I suppose, to a lesser extent, even Ricky Nolasco) all get credit for that improvement. Bottom of the 8th Inning Mike Aviles (vs. Glen Perkins) leads off the inning with a single to CF (-7.6%) Jason Kipnis struck out looking (+6.5%) Francisco Lindor struck out swingin (+5.0%) We haven’t seen Glen Perkins in a game since Friday’s gut punch, but with May still not available (although he sounds close), Perkins came in to protect a 4-2 lead. It didn’t start well. But back-to-back strikeouts gave an optimistic feel to the outing. His pitches to Lindor, all of which were sliders, gave hope beyond just this one hold, especially that third one. The Twins have plenty to overcome just to make the playoffs, let alone to advance beyond the wild card game and make a meaningful run. But getting May and Perkins back and healthy to join Kevin Jepsen (who was excellent again tonight) could go a long way to stealing some close games this postseason. This outing should have reminded Twins fans there is still promise on that front. The plays and percentages in this story come from FanGraphs, an excellent resource for tracking the probability of your favorite team winning or losing a game, as well as seeing the impact of particular plays on the outcome of a game. Last night’s Twins win can be found here. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John break down the schedules of the Twins, Astros and Angels, discuss the various scenarios for a Game 163 (and 164?), commiserate about the probable starting pitching for important postseason games, watch the lunar eclipse from the deck of LynLake Brewery, find Ron Gardenhire’s next job, review the events that led to Aaron becoming an Apple fanboy, research Eddie Rosario’s future career paths, recall John’s lastest attempt to convince himself he’s in his 20s, remind everyone that Byron Buxton is still awesome, and congratulate Eduardo Escobar on officially being the Twins starting shortstop. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

Thanks to everyone for a fantastic Twins Daily Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl, sponsored by Proximo Liquors. Over 100 people crawled from Ray J’s American Grill to The Office Pub & Grill to Sneaky Pete’s and finally to the Twins game and beyond. We had a local dignitary join us and a moment I’ll not soon forget. I’d especially like to thank Proximo Liquors for the free sample of Three Olives Vodka, Krakken Rum and Tin Cup Gin that we got at each stop. A few other highlights: Wally the Beer Man joined the crawl at our last stop, serving up beer for the crawlers and being generous with his time for pictures. He’s a Twin Cities baseball institution and we were honored to have him join us.A few local media luminaries jumped into the fray at various points. I don’t want to implicate them too much, but it was great to see you and I know a lot of the crawlers enjoyed meeting you.This year we had a special scavenger hunt contest which encouraged participants to meet and greet MinnCentric writers and contributors, so they could get them to sign the weird fact about them. We got thirteen completed sheets and the winner was Micah Larson, who has been contacted to get his pair of front row Twins tickets. Thank you everyone who worked on it.Download attachment: Contest Picture.JPG Thank you to the MinnCentric writers/contributors who not only hung out but even delivered drink samples to the crawlers. I hope you enjoyed the day as much as I did.Thanks, of course, to The Voice Of Reason for not only tolerating this insanity but throwing herself headfirst into it.Special thanks to Ray J’s, The Office and Sneaky Pete’s and their staff for gearing up for the rush and making us feel welcome.Finally, it was sure nice of the Twins to schedule a day-night doubleheader so we could watch a game while we were pub crawling. It led to the moment I won’t forget. At our second stop, the bar went from loud to suddenly quiet. I looked up and saw why. Miguel Sano was batting in the 7th inning in a game in which the Twins faced a two-run deficit. He represented the tying run. Of course he hit a home run. And of course the bar exploded. High fives with strangers were exchanged, as were smiles and looks of wonder. It was the moment that the pub crawl was made for. I hope you all can experience a similar moment next year when you join us. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' playoff odds being on life support, Paul Molitor on experience vs. youth, riding or dying with Mike Pelfrey, recapping the Twins Daily pub crawl, Torii Hunter coming back to life, getting razors from Harrys.com, the least of the rotation evils, strikeouts vs. double plays, eating macaroni and cheese at Mason's, and snapping a 15-year no-vomit streak. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins fell to the Tigers 5-4 in a game equally doomed by questionable decisions and bad breaks. Let's look at the five plays that swung the game both positively and negatively (as judged by Win Probability Added) and see if we can divine how this one slipped away. #5 Victor Martinez singles home the first run in the 1st inning. (+10% for DET) Pitcher Phil Hughes started this game after he had not pitched in a game, either in the majors or in the minors, since he was put on the disabled list over a month ago. That meant that he would be on a limited pitch count (he threw 65 pitches) and nobody knew how effective he would be. Terry Ryan admitted before the game that they were only looking for Hughes to give them a chance.In the end, I suppose he did. He lasted three innings, and gave up three runs. Of course, that still meant that the Twins needed to rely on the back of their bullpen for those middle innings, which further exacerbates the decision. AJ Achter only gave up one-run in his mop-up role. But of course the Twins only lost by one run. The Tigers grabbed the lead in that first inning, scoring two runs. But watching Hughes' pitches, there wasn't a lot of hope that this gambit would turn out as well as it did. Understandably, he looked rusty, throwing 10 balls in 23 pitches. But worse, he looked slow. He didn't throw a pitch over 91 mph that first inning, and never did the rest of the game, either. So he relied heavily on offspeed stuff. Even if you consider his results reasonably effective, that velocity might ring enough alarm bells to not start him on Sunday. That would mean more innings for Tyler Duffey, which is good news for everyone except Tyler Duffey's arm. #4 Joe Mauer doubles home a run in the ninth to make the score 5-4. (+10% for the Twins). #3 Miguel Sano strikes out to end the game. (+15% for DET) Detroit's closer, Bruce Rondon, likes his heat. And why shouldn't he? It was clocking at 98 to 100 mph. I can't document each pitch he threw, but every time I looked at the speed gun for his first 17 pitches, he was throwing the screaming four-seam fastball. Then up came Sano. Then out came the pitching coach. And then Rondon didn't throw a single fastball to Sano, throwing him three straight sliders, all for strikes that ended the game. But that's not the painful part. The second and third of those sliders dove way off the plate and were only strikes because Sano was fooled and swung. But even that isn't the painful part. The painful part is that the first slider was a called strike because it HUNG. It floated up there (as much as an 85 mph pitch can float), slow and centered in the middle of the strike zone. But Sano didn't swing because he had watched Rondon throw 17 straight fastballs and likely didn't know exactly what the hell that was. It worked the way an eephus pitch works. #2 - Miguel Sano singles, driving in two runs to make the score 4-3 in the 7th inning. (+17% for MIN) #1 - Trevor Plouffe grounds into a double play to end the seventh inning. (+19% for DET) After Sano's single, the Twins had runners on first and second base, were down by one run and, per FanGraphs, had a 45% chance of winning the game. That may not sound like a lot, but mathematically it was the closest they had been since that first run was scored by the Tigers. (And realistically, it was the closest they had been since the decision to start a guy who hadn't thrown a pitch in a game since August 9th.) The second run from Sano's hit was scored by Aaron Hicks who reached on the most beautiful drag bunt I've seen from a Twins player since....I don't even know. Carew? It was gorgeous. I"m a sucker for drag bunts. I would rather see a gorgeous drag bunt than just about any other event in baseball and this might have been the best one I have ever seen. It was masterful. It's possible I'm not totally sober. But the Twins best opportunity ended on Trevor Plouffe's double play. Plouffe has had terrible luck with GIDPs, and this one pulled him within one of the Twins all-time record for most in a season, set by Harmon Killebrew in 1970. (h/t to Aaron Gleeman.) Remember when we would all beat up Mauer for his proclivity to ground into double plays? The most Mauer ever had in a season was 24. That year (2006) he grounded into double plays 18% of the time that he possibly could. This year, Plouffe has 27 and grounded into double plays almost 24% of his opportunities. That has killed his offensive value; despite pretty good overall statistics, he has a slightly negative WPA right now. I don't think there is much that can be done about it. For his career, he's been pretty good about NOT grounding into double plays, usually doing so only about 10% of the time. But this year it's been a real problem. And today, along with a questionable pitching decision, and a hanging slider that wasn't crushed, it cost the Twins a crucial game in the Wild Card race. Click here to view the article

Did one Brain Dozier swing change everything? Yes it did. On Friday, July 10th, the Tigers were playing their second game of a four-game set versus the Minnesota Twins. The Tigers were in an unusual position - behind the Twins by a couple of games in the standings. But there was no way that was going to last. The Tigers had owned the Twins for four years and 2015 was more of the same; the Tigers had an 8-2 record against the Twins so far that season.And for eight innings, the script was followed. Ace Justin Verlander, who had just recently returned to the rotation, was masterful. Meanwhile, the Tigers chased Ervin Santana after just four innings. As a result, the Tigers entered the 9th inning with a 6-1 lead. But the Twins rallied and capped their comeback with a Brian Dozier home run to left field. The Twins walked off 8-6 winners. It was just one game, but to Twins fans it felt like the passing of a torch. The aging Tigers era was over. The youthful Twins era had begun. I don’t know if that’s how it felt to Tigers fans, but since that moment, things have fallen apart for the Tigers. They lost the last two games of that series. Then they stumbled badly enough through the rest of July that General Manager Dave Dombrowski became a seller at the trade deadline, moving ace David Price to the Blue Jays and slugger Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets. Then Dombrowski was fired. Now it looks like the Tigers manager, Brad Ausmus, will be fired at the end of the season. There are even rumors that former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire is the frontrunner to replace him. That’s what happens when a team implodes; the Tigers’ record since that fateful night is only 21-36. So the Tigers visit Target Field this September with recent roles reversed. This year, they are trying to play the spoiler while the Twins are chasing a playoff spot. They’re still dangerous. Detroit is 8-5 versus the Twins this year, though it appears the Twins will miss Verlander in this series and their other top pitcher, Anibal Sanchez, is on the DL. With an extended stretch of summer this week, there should be plenty of Twins fans watching the teams adopt their new roles. After all, who wouldn’t want to see that one swing that changes everything? Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about going back to podcast-only, bar-hopping mode, hitting the over on 72.5 wins, playing the White Sox, Eddie Rosario's odds of turning back into a pumpkin, Eduardo Escobar's hot streak, Torii Hunter showing signs of life, Trevor May's future role, not calling up Max Kepler or Jose Berrios, what to make of Byron Buxton so far, and Oktoberfest at 612 Brew. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. http://gleemangeek.l...mber-contenders Click here to view the article