John Bonnes

I've been wrestling with the homophobia thing and the attention paid to it. My 96-year-old grandma is a racist, or at least has said racist things to me. I don't plan to bring that up in her eulogy. And I still think she's a great person. I think you can find the homophobic sentiment terrible (and I do), without wholly condemning the person who made the comments. That comes from personal experience. Almost anyone who is my age (48) was probably homophobic. I know I was in 1985, when I was 18. I know my parents went through something similar. Thirty years ago, homophobia was the default stance taken by society. I imagine that if you were raised in Arkansas, as an African-American man, and immersed in a locker room culture for the last 25 years, that default stance is still pretty ingrained. If I was to condemn everyone my age who ever expressed a homophobic attitude, I would condemn myself, most of my peers, my role models, my brother, my parents, etc. And I can tell you that most of the ones I remember have changed their tune upon further reflection. If I would have let those attitudes define them, I would've missed out on some great people and would not have experienced the happiness that they felt from letting go of a position that was based in fear and ignorance and difference. I think this is hard - maybe impossible - for anyone under the age of 35 to understand. For them, the default stance is exactly the opposite. I don't think we've seen an issue like that for a while. A few years ago, talking to a grassroots organizer, he explained the reason that anti gay marriage amendments were being created. It was because something like 80% of those 50 and older were anti gay marriage and 80% of those 40 and under were pro. We went through a seismic shift in attitude over a 10 year period from one generation to the other. I cut everyone towards the higher end of that shift a lot of slack on the subject. It may just be a journey that they haven't taken yet. And I try to cut some slack to the younger folks who can't understand what kind of monsters could have such terrible views. They might find themselves needing to face a similar journey on a different topic that might make them more understanding. So, no, I don't think Hunter's views on homosexuality should define him. I think it's fine to note them, audibly reject them and then move on to the other 99.8% of the person. And it's OK to still admire that person for that other 99.8%.

Aaron and John discuss the possible return of A.J. Pierzynski, Ron Gardenhire’s rejection letters, hot dogs, beer, and Japanese food at Kyatchi, 40-man roster moves, how to pronounce cauliflower, the odds of various starters making the rotation, Aaron's infatuation on Tom Selleck, the depth of turnover in the bullpen, and lessons from the postseason. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click "Play" below. Play! Click here to view the article

Aaron and John preview the offseason by discussing the Twins future budget, Kurt Suzuki’s future platoon partner, Trevor Plouffe’s future employer, Eduardo Escobar’s future role, Torii Hunter’s future salary, and Byron Buxton’s future location - all while stuffing their maws with Iron Door Pub’s food, berating you for not saving money at Harry’s Razors and finally answering Twitter questions. Where else are you going to get nearly two hours or Twins talk today? Just download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. (Or just click the Play button below.) Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about watching the playoffs and trying to imagine the Twins making a deep run, reviewing the good and (mostly) bad preseason Vegas over/under picks, buying a mattress from Casper, Ron Gardenhire's ongoing job search, eating Jackalope and drinking beer at New Bohemia, how to become the subject of a gossip column, and living your life around a living room mattress. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John say goodbye to another Twins season and talk about falling just short of the Wild Card spot, half-full vs. half-empty, how to assess Torii Hunter, what to expect from the offseason, Paul Molitor's first year on the job, getting razor's from Harrys.com, Brian Dozier's strikeout record, Miguel Sano's full counts, KFAN's ratings dominance, and bat-flipping for fun and profit. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

It started ugly. The home opener, an ugly 12-3 loss to the Kansas City Royals, dropped the Twins to a 1-6 start on the year. It also seemed to confirm the fan base’s worst fears: after four years of losing, this team still was not close to a turnaround. Cue turnaround. Suddenly, were were all watching The Natural, only the New York Giants were the Minnesota Twins and Roy Hobbs was ... still fictional. Because in Major League Baseball, a miracle season is never due to one player. The Twins marathon through 162 games has included significant contributions from players all over the roster. Here are a few:Veteran Hitters Kick Start The Lineup Over the first half of the season, the Twins lineup was paced by their veterans. Brian Dozier led the team offensively (841 OPS pre-ASB)) and was rewarded with a (belated) All-Star Game appearance. Besides mentoring rookies and organizing dance parties, Torii Hunter impacted the team offensively with 49 RBI and a 756 OPS pre-All-Star break. Trevor Plouffe matched that production with a 769 OPS and 46 RBI. Finally, Joe Mauer contributed despite a dip in his batting average with a 935 OPS with runners in scoring position. If there had been a Game 163, this is the story you would have seen in the Twins $1 Official Scorecard. It is often written by independent bloggers including some from Twins Daily and it's the best deal in Target Field. Look for it next year. Consistent Starting Pitching Kyle Gibson leads the team in ERA and innings pitched, despite also being one of the youngest (27 years old) members of the staff. Mike Pelfrey and Ervin Santana both had good and bad stretches, but Pelfrey’s first half (9 Quality Starts before the All-Star break) and Santana’s second half (10 QS) combined to be a solid top-of-the-rotation presence. Maybe most importantly, whether starts were taken by Phil Hughes (11 QS), Tommy Milone (9 QS), or even Trevor May (7 QS) the team has received more opportunities to compete in games. Next Man Up In The Bullpen The bullpen hasn’t had year-long fixed roles like some past Twins bullpens, but has had several players step up as others battled injuries and slumps. Closer Glen Perkins was flawless before the All-Star break, Blaine Boyer dominated late innings in May (0.68 ERA), and May’s move to the bullpen provide that same consistency after the All-Star break. Finally, Kevin Jepsen has absolutely sparkled since acquired at the trade deadline (1.80 ERA), providing - well – relief to the Twins and their fans. The Kids Take The Torch Imagine if you were told in April that Miguel Sano (935 OPS), Eduardo Escobar (759 OPS), Aaron Hicks (722 OPS), Eddie Rosario (754 OPS) & Tyler Duffey (3.14 ERA) were going to be the most consistent performers in August and September. Only one of them was even on the team on Opening Day. Unlike The Natural, none has literally hit the cover off the ball. But their sudden rise and contributions to the team might be stranger than fiction. Stats Attack Last year, the Twins had two starting pitchers who made at least 30 starts. This year, they Twins had two starting pitchers who made at least 30 starts. Here’s how those two fared both years, compared to the rest of the starting rotation: Download attachment: Rotation ERAs.JPG Partly because Phil Hughes had such a great year last year, the top two starters were slightly better last year. The difference this year has been the back of the rotation, where Tommy Milone (4.07 ERA), Ervin Santana (4.10), Trevor May (4.43) & Tyler Duffey (3.14) have provided a significant boost over 2014 fill-ins. Click here to view the article

Now the Twins must beat and maybe sweep the team that is nine games ahead of them in the AL Central. Whew. If you’re looking for hope here it is: The Royals are 11-17 in September. The responsibility for the slide is entirely on their pitching staff, which had a 3.53 ERA entering September, but a 4.91 ERA in September. So let’s break down the pitching in this three-game set.Chris Young (RH, 3.15 ERA 78K/41BB/117 IP) vs. Ervin Santana (RH, 4.10 ERA, 79K/33BB/101 IP) If Tommy Milone was right-handed, 36 years old and 6’10” he would be Chris Young. OK, he wouldn’t be. He would still be Tommy Milone, because that’s in the premise of the statement. But he would throw as hard as Young. Actually harder, Because Chris Young doesn't throw very hard. That's my point. Young was moved to the bullpen when the Royals acquired Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline, but returned to the rotation last week and threw five innings of no-hit baseball in his first start. His last two games versus the Twins also went very well, completing 11.2 IP and giving up just one earned run. This is going to much trickier to win than it looks on paper. Yordano Ventura (RH, 4.20 ERA, 145K/55 BB/156.1 IP) vs. Tommy Milone (LH, 4.04 ERA, 86K/34BB/122.2 IP) You may have heard that Ventura was struggling this year and sent to AAA. He was – for about 24 hours. The next day the Royals found out that Jason Vargas had a torn left UCL and Ventura was brought back. He’s been a little bit better since then, but was absolutely outstanding in his last start against the Cubs on Monday. He pitched seven shutout innings, striking out six and giving up just two hits. He also might be certifiably insane. If the Twins get worked up about a bat flip, it’ll be interesting to see what could happen if Ventura starts getting all loco. If you’re into anarchy or nihilism or hockey, this is the game I would recommend. By the way, the Royals don’t struggle much with left-handed pitchers, hitting just slightly lower against them. In particular, you might want to do that weird thing you do "for luck" when Lorenzo Cain (934 OPS vs LHs) and Alex Gordon (819 OPS vs LHs) are up. Johnny Cueto (RH, 4.95 ERA, 52K/13BB/76.1 IP) vs. Kyle Gibson? (RH, 3.84 ERA, 145K/65BB/194.2 IP) And if the Twins are facing a must-win game on Sunday, all they have to do is beat last year’s NL Cy Young Award runner-up. Sigh. The good news is that Cueto hasn’t been nearly as good since he joined the Royals. In fact, he had a five game stretch at the end of August and beginning of September in which he was terrible, posting a 9.57 ERA. He’s been better his last three starts, but far from dominant: 3.60 ERA, 11K and 5 BB in 20 IP. The recent improvement is from him not giving up quite as many home runs. If it looks like the Twins are making solid contact (or if the wind is blowing out), their task might not be as hard as it seems. Click here to view the article

Coupla WPA things.... 1. In that Astros/MAriners game, there was a point in the 5th innings where the Mariners were up 6-3 and had a 91.4% chance to win that game. Ugh. http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2015-09-30&team=Mariners&dh=0&season=2015 2. Does anyone know the win percentage of a home team up 2-0 at the bottom of the 1st? I'd love to know, because while that blown replay call only increased the Indians chance by +1%, being called out certainly would have decreased their percentage chance. I wonder just how many % that messed up call was worth. IMHO, that is two times in this series that video replay has screwed the Twins. And I don't mean "got the call write." I mean failed to do what it is supposed to do, which is get the call right.

Good feedback. I wish I had time to respond to it all. A couple of quick shots: Mauer - You can have a lower OPS and still have a bigger impact on games than someone. Whenever I see a comment like "WPA isn't right about this" without a reason why it isn't right, I see it as "I don't like WPA because it contradicts my paradigm." But that should be a starting point. Mauer has not been a table-setter, but he has been an awfully productive contributor offensively because of his opportunism. There is just no way around it. (Now, that doesn't mean anything for next year.) Hicks most improved over Escobar? Maybe. But coming out of last year, I think the league, the team and fans all thought that was a fluke. And this year he's a legitimate stud. I'm not so sure that Hicks won't also be viewed as a bit of a fluke at the end of this year. So maybe he needs one more breakthrough year. Hunter - I'm giving him credit for leadership. I don't know why we feel it is important in other aspects of life but not with a baseball team. Some guys just make the guys around them better sometimes. And when everyone in that clubhouse says that is the case, then that's enough evidence for me. If May was still a rookie.....he probably makes that list. But I don't know who he pushes off. Any other year, I'd be thrilled with Rosario as ROY. That there are two guys that I think have had an even bigger impact is amazing. That there could be a third is crazy.

I don’t have a lot of patience for debates surrounding end-of-year awards. Too often, it becomes a platform for arguing about methodology instead of appreciating the players. But when Seth asks a bunch of us for our end-of-year choices, I’m obliged to reply. He’ll give the overall results next week, but here's the ballot I'm sending to him, as well as my reasoning.MVP Miguel SanoBrian DozierTorii HunterKyle GibsonJoe MauerI’m sure this is blasphemy for some, seeing as Sano has only played for the second half of the year. But I’m right, and you’re wrong. His raw numbers are historically good. His impact offensively in games via WPA dwarfs every other batter on the team. And he is the most rare and valuable of commodities for a Twins fan. His presence in the lineup is something that the Twins haven’t had since … certainly since Kirby Puckett and maybe since Harmon Killebrew. Besides, none of the other guys did much for more than half a year, either. But since I need to give Seth four more…. Dozier still leads the team in OPS among qualified hitter, and his first half was spectacular. Hunter does get some extra credit for his leadership and his overall production in the Twins lineup would arguably put him in the top five anyway. Gibson separated himself from the rest of the starters this year. And in a close race, Mauer gets the wild card last spot, because, he has been clutch this year, more than any player besides Sano. And that’s objective, not subjective. If you don’t recognize it, maybe that’s on you. Best Pitcher Kyle GibsonGlen PerkinsKevin JepsenThere hasn’t been a lot of separation from the pack for the starting pitchers, but Gibson leads the rotation in ERA and IP, so I don’t know who else I’ll give it too. Perkins’ second half has been dismal, but he still has 32 of the Twins 44 saves, so he still gets the nod as the best bullpen guy. But Jepsen makes the list too, and is a close second to Perkins. He not only served in an important role, he did so at the most important of times. Finally, Trevor May gets an honorable mention here. He threw comparable numbers to the other starting pitchers and showed the flexibility to jump into the ‘pen and carry it for a good third of the season. Rookie Miguel SanoTyler DuffeyEddie RosarioSano, duh. I’ll go with Duffey second even though he wasn’t around all year. Like Sano, his impact was just so dominant in the time since he arrived. That puts Eddie Rosario, who has been the most consistent productive rookie on the team, in third place. If you want to list him higher than Duffey, I won’t argue too much. Most Improved Eduardo EscobarAaron HicksMike PelfreyI might be playing a favorite, or possibly wishcasting a bit, I’ll admit. But I never saw this coming from Eduardo Escobar. He’ll fall about 50 plate appearances short of “qualifying” but he would have the second highest OPS on the team while playing a premium defensive position. He wins. I thought Aaron Hicks had a chance to become good, but I didn’t see it happening this early. A 722 OPS while playing very well defensively in center field (+5.8 UZR) is great news for someone who was left behind when the team went north in April. Speaking of guys whose role changed as the season began, I’m giving the third place nod to Mike Pelfrey over Tommy Milone. Pelfrey, if you haven’t noticed, is second on the team in innings pitched and is still posting an ERA around 4.00. He’s been the Twins second best starting pitcher and I should point out that FanGraphs lists his value as being that of a $15.9M pitcher. (That is not a typo.) Milone should get an honorable mention He fought through a demotion and a couple of injuries to become a solid contributor at the back of the bullpen. For a guy who had an ERA over 7 for the Twins last year, that’s a remarkable improvement. Click here to view the article

By the way, was I the only one who thought the video review of that pickoff play call wasn't conclusive?

Thanks. I like playing with this format. Not sure the best way to do it, and it feels like I haven't found it just yet, but it's fun to try.

Since you asked, Mauer's 2-out double that started the scoring in the 1st inning was #27, adding 2.2% to the chances of the Twins winning. These aren't random numbers, by the way. For those who don't know much about WPA, they're generated from historically reviewing thousands of games and computing the results from those games. So in Mauer's case, it comes from this: - A team that is tied in the top of the first with 2 outs and nobody on base has historically won 49.2% of games. - A team that is tied in the top of the first with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd base has historically won 51.4% of games. The difference between those situations is 2.2%, which is how much Mauer's double added to his team's chance of winning that game.

It isn’t just the Twins postseason hopes that are in need of medical attention - the Twins players are too. You can also include my heart in that list if I have to put up with another week of games like the 4-2 win over Cleveland last night. For a complete breakdown, check out Seth’s game story. Instead, we’ll dive into the top ten plays of the game in chronological order, along with what you need to know about each one.Top of the 1st Inning #2 – Miguel Sano doubles, scoring Mauer for the Twins to take a 1-0 lead.(+10.9%) #1 – Trevor Plouffe homers, driving in Sano to give the Twins a 3-0 lead. (+17.0%) The two biggest plays of the game happened within the first five at-bats. That’s both good and bad news. It means the Twins jumped on Cleveland starting pitcher Corey Kluber early, but it also means they were awfully quiet later. The Twins “two-out ambush” - as manager Paul Molitor labeled it - was accomplished entirely by the Twins three best hitters this year with runners in scoring position: Mauer (.935 OPS with RISP) doubled, Sano (1.011 OPS with RISP) did too and Plouffe. (944 OPS with RISP) hit his 22nd home run. Call it luck or a brilliant batting order or clutch-erific clutchiness; it worked tonight. Bottom of the 1st Inning #4 – Francisco Lindor homers, drawing the Indians with two runs, 3-1. (-8.7%) As encouraging as the top of the first inning was, the Twins were still starting a pitcher who had recently been out with a sore shoulder and hadn’t started a game the last two turns through the rotation. Plus, he got knocked around silly in that start, lasting just 1.1 innings. If Milone’s shoulder was still bothering him, it didn’t show. He was aggressive, and after that 3-2 home run he gave up to Lindor, he retired 14 of his next 16 batters. The Twins said last week he would come out of the bullpen the rest of the year, but this raises the question: could he help out this stretched rotaion? Here’s how the next few games look: Download attachment: Last Week Probables.jpg I’m sure there will be those who say Milone should start over Pelfrey, but the guy I’m most worried about is Phil Hughes, who doesn’t have his velocity back yet. Could Milone take Hughes’ (presumed) Saturday start and give Hughes a good two weeks to recover? Could Milone pitch a Game 163 versus the Angels, who have struggled against left-handed pitching this year? Could Hughes take Duffey’s start to save the Twins some innings on his arm? And what of Gibson’s last few starts? Could he use a couple of extra days of recovery? As positively as tonight’s start impacted the Twins playoff hopes, I wonder if the flexibility of having Milone back won’t be more impactful in the future. Top of the 2nd Inning #9 – Torii Hunter doubles to right field to lead off the second inning. (+4.7%) #7 – Torii Hunter picked off of second base (-6.4%) Ugh. It looks like the umpires blew this call and it isn’t clear the Twins coaching staff didn’t, too. Hunter was originally called safe getting back to the bag but the call was reversed upon review. But there are two things about that review: First, I personally didn’t think the review showed indisputable proof that he really was out. But maybe there was a camera angle I couldn’t see. But more damning was that a review isn’t supposed to happen after the pitcher is on the rubber and the batter is in the batter’s box. That happened. But the home plate umpire was looking to the Cleveland dugout and didn’t see it and granted the review. Also, from watching it on television I didn’t see the Twins coaching staff objecting before the review took place. By the way, credit Dick Bremer of Fox Sports North being all over that nuance of the call. I would not have noticed and it wasn’t clear anyone else associated with the broadcast did, either. He called it out, and FSN responded, showing exactly what he was talking about. That pickoff play short-circuited a possible rally that could have drastically changed the game. It will mostly be forgotten after the win, but the Twins had runners on first and second base with no outs when it happened. Also, Kluber looked to be on the ropes. He ended up lasting six innings. Top of the 4th Inning #10 – Eddie Rosario doubled to left to lead off the inning (+4.7%) Rosario eventually came around to score on a Brian Dozier sacrifice fly to give the Twins a crucial insurance run. I just think it’s interesting that his initial hit improved the Twins chances of winning the game by 4.7%, while Dozier’s sac fly only improved their chances by 1.6%. That makes sense to me; the lead-off double is the hard part. The sac fly is just doing one’s job. But I wonder if most see it that way. Bottom of the 6th Inning Jason Kipnis tripled to left to lead off the sixth inning. (-9.1%) This is the hit that cost Milone his 10th “quality start” of the season. He handled it well; Kipnis scored on the next batter to make the score 4-2, but Milone retired that batter and the one following. However Molitor, having watched Milone throw 82 pitches, decided he had pushed his luck enough. Blain Boyer came in to get the final out of the inning. We probably aren’t giving Milone enough credit for the success he’s had this year. He lost about a month to a demotion to Rochester, where he absolutely dominated. He’s missed a little time to some injuries, but came back strong both times. He’s got a 4.04 ERA, has made 21 starts, threw 117 innings, and is within a couple of outs of having as many quality starts as Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Ervin Santana. The biggest improvement in the Twins starting rotation is that they’ve been getting decent starts from the back of their rotation. Unlike previous years, they haven’t had fill-in players that were just getting hopelessly shelled, throwing away games. Milone, Trevor May and Duffey (and I suppose, to a lesser extent, even Ricky Nolasco) all get credit for that improvement. Bottom of the 8th Inning Mike Aviles (vs. Glen Perkins) leads off the inning with a single to CF (-7.6%) Jason Kipnis struck out looking (+6.5%) Francisco Lindor struck out swingin (+5.0%) We haven’t seen Glen Perkins in a game since Friday’s gut punch, but with May still not available (although he sounds close), Perkins came in to protect a 4-2 lead. It didn’t start well. But back-to-back strikeouts gave an optimistic feel to the outing. His pitches to Lindor, all of which were sliders, gave hope beyond just this one hold, especially that third one. The Twins have plenty to overcome just to make the playoffs, let alone to advance beyond the wild card game and make a meaningful run. But getting May and Perkins back and healthy to join Kevin Jepsen (who was excellent again tonight) could go a long way to stealing some close games this postseason. This outing should have reminded Twins fans there is still promise on that front. The plays and percentages in this story come from FanGraphs, an excellent resource for tracking the probability of your favorite team winning or losing a game, as well as seeing the impact of particular plays on the outcome of a game. Last night’s Twins win can be found here. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John break down the schedules of the Twins, Astros and Angels, discuss the various scenarios for a Game 163 (and 164?), commiserate about the probable starting pitching for important postseason games, watch the lunar eclipse from the deck of LynLake Brewery, find Ron Gardenhire’s next job, review the events that led to Aaron becoming an Apple fanboy, research Eddie Rosario’s future career paths, recall John’s lastest attempt to convince himself he’s in his 20s, remind everyone that Byron Buxton is still awesome, and congratulate Eduardo Escobar on officially being the Twins starting shortstop. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article