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John Bonnes

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Blog Entries posted by John Bonnes

  1. John Bonnes
    Waddya say we watch us some baseball?
     
    Our first chance to see the Twins on TV is this Monday night, so why not celebrate with some Twins fans? Aaron Gleeman and I will be at The Wild Boar on Monday night (3/5 at 6:05) for our weekly podcast and kicking back to watch the Twins. Hopefully, you can join us, bring your questions and help us revel in end of the offseason. We'll see you there!
  2. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, Justin Morneau's discouraging quotes about his health status, Sean Burroughs' odds of making the roster, Aaron's ongoing car saga, John's marriage, and a bunch of mailbag questions. Here are:

    the podcasts
     
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
     
    the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

  3. John Bonnes
    The TwinsCentric GM Offseason Handbook listed 23 right-handed relievers, sorted in descending order by what we thought they would receive on the open market. The 23rd was Joel Zumaya. He was listed last because of the obvious injury risk he represented.
     
     
    But Zumaya wasn't the 23rd one signed. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan was aggressive, like he had been all offseason, and Zumaya signed relatively early given his status. That signing was almost universally praised because Zumaya has such terrific upside and because the contract was cheap and not guaranteed. It was lauded as the perfect low-risk signing for a team with a limited offseason budget like the Twins.
     
     
    But it was not low risk, and the one person who knew that was Terry Ryan. Ryan knew something that the evaluators and fans did not - Zumaya would be the last reliever the Twins would sign this offseason. He was essentially replacing the departed Joe Nathan. If it didn't work, the backup plan was....
     
     
    I'm sure I'll hear this week how there are still plenty of backup plans. In terms of quantity, there are. But not in terms of quality. Every one of them is either a member of last year's shaky corps or a waiver or minor-league pickup. We could bring the TwinsCentric crew into spring training camp if we want to add some quantity. But that isn't going to bolster that backup plan.
     
     
    So now the true risk of that move is a lot clearer. When Zumaya's season ended yesterday, the first 21 of the right-handed relievers on TwinsCentric's list already belonged to other major league teams. (By the way, at least a half dozen signed similar low-risk deals as Zumaya's.) Number 22 is Michael Wuertz, a formerly dominant reliever whose velocity has fallen and whose ERA soared to 6.68 last year. He represents a significant risk himself.
     
     
    It's forgivable for evaluators to praise the Zumaya signing - they didn't know what Ryan did. But Ryan knew. And he had to know that a reliever who hadn't finished a season healthy since 2006 was a big risk. So now he will have an extra million dollars left to spend and no relievers to spend it on. It was a foolish gamble from the beginning which has unsurprisingly failed.
  4. John Bonnes
    Third baseman and non-roster invitee Sean Burroughs reported to Twins spring training camp yesterday and apparently took some time to talk to reporters, as you'll find him in numerous stories today. That's not surprising.
     
    Burroughs is a good story - a Little League hero who rose to prize prospect, flamed out in 2007, fell into a life of substance abuse and returned to the majors as a bench bat last year. For now, it's a happy ending. For Twins fans, it has a chance to be happier still, because Burroughs has positioned himself to be in the right place at the right time.
     
    I was asked today how the Twins were the lucky team to sign someone with Burroughs’ upside to a minor league contract. The answer is a bittersweet one to Twins fans. Burroughs likely signed with the Twins because a lot could go wrong at the hot corner this year.
     
    Last year, a heap of unwanted attention was piled on Danny Valencia's defense, and when one plays for a manager like Ron Gardenhire, that's no small problem. But there was also the fact that the right-handed batting Valencia has simply not hit right-handed pitching, posting .242 batting average and just a 654 OPS in 660 plate appearances. For comparison, Nick Punto’s career OPS is 652. Considering right-handed pitchers account for 2/3 of the at-bats an everyday starter faces and suddenly Valencia’s future as a full-time player is in doubt.
     
    Enter Burroughs. Burroughs bats left-handed. Coincidentally, when speaking of Burroughs, Gardenhire specifically praised two areas in which Valencia has struggled: defense and clubhouse impact. ESPN 1500’s Phil Mackey asked Gardenhire about Valencia and passed along the following quotes:
     
    "He can pick it over (at third base)," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "Very intelligent. As I said, very intelligent on the defensive side of the ball. Knows the game out there, positions himself well. Always did. And handles himself very well. (Rochester manager) Gene Glynn had him down in winter ball this year. He had him down in winter ball in Venezuela. He had great reports on him....
     
    "Everything I've heard about him from winter ball, they told me he was one of those guys that everyone couldn't wait until he entered the clubhouse; he brightened up the clubhouse.”
     
    It's unlikely last year’s third base responsibilities would change by Opening Day. But it's not totally crazy to think that Burroughs could find his way onto the 25-man roster. Two bench spots might be in play. Luke Hughes' status is up in the air given his shoulder problems. Burroughs could replace him, especially if he shows he can fill-in at second base in a pinch. And the Twins have enough redundancy at catcher, shortstop and center field that Gardenhire could use that last roster spot for a bench bat instead of a bench glove.
     
    But whether he makes it right now or not, this story isn't over. We don't know the plot twists that will take place yet this spring or summer, but there is plenty of opportunity for all involved to live happily ever after.
  5. John Bonnes
    It is our intention for this site to be a community, and so I thought I'd share some numbers with you all as we reach the 48-hour mark of the site being live.
     
    I'll preface this by saying: when we first conceived of this site, we guessed that we would get about 5000 page views of stories and about 1000 page views in the forum per day.
     
    Instead, through our first 48 hours, we're seeing the following:
     
    431 Registered Users
    6813 Unique Visitors
    9269 Visits
    44,034 Page Views
     
    I truly hope this is just the beginning of a much bigger community. It can go as far as you can take it. Thank you all so much for a kick start that has blown away our expectations.
  6. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John broadcast from Lindsay Guentzel's MLB Fan Cave Voting Party. They discuss each of the Twins pitchers, including a spirited discussion about the relative values of Carl Pavano and Scott Baker. Then they finish by talking about the new TwinsDaily web site. You can find:

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

    Thanks!
  7. John Bonnes
    It isn’t just for reading. That’s the difference.
     
    When I first started blogging in January of 2002, I went something like six solid months with less than 20 people reading my thoughts on a daily basis. That’s the dirty secret about blogging that both supporters and critics don’t get: it’s easy to do, but very hard to get enough readers so that anybody notices.
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EELQ71HPwVg/T0HFlP4lX9I/AAAAAAAAAgU/ztM4WbCpvv0/s320/TD%2BFront%2BPage.jpg
     
    When I find out that someone has blogged, they have instant credibility. Sure, anyone can write. But to do so consistently, and make it insightful and entertaining without payment or promise of payment or even any hope that what you’re doing is going anyplace beyond dissolving into the ether – I want to know these people. That is a story of faith. And passion. And dammit, nobility.
     
    Which is why it kills me that it may be harder to blog now than it was when I started. At least then it was new and fresh. Now it’s so loud out there, I don’t know how any new voice ever gets heard. And I’m as guilty of the deafness as anyone. I simply can’t keep up with all the Twins blogs that have sprouted up only to go silent.
     
    That’s why TwinsCentric is very proud to announce the launch of TwinsDaily.com. We’re each setting aside our independence to start a central site where you can find (for free, mind you) all our stories. But the site isn’t just for reading. There are two other very important pieces.
     
    First, in the hope of resurrecting the spirit of the old Dickie Thon Twins Board we’re including a forum where you can discuss all kinds of Twins topics. All we ask is that you register so we have some accountability for the discussions, and that you keep it civil. We’re all on the same team.
     
    Second, when you register, you get a blog. You can ignore it if you want, or you can try out your voice. If your post is good, we’ll find room for it on the front page. And if it’s bad? Well, then we won’t. But at the very least you’ll be trying to find your identity where thousands of Twins fans are stopping by each day.
     
    TwinsCentric has worked on several magazines, books and e-books over the last couple of years, but I think it’s safe to say that we’re more excited about this than any of them. This is a site we want to exist: a local place where Twins fans can gather, read, share and write. If that sounds great, then please swing by.
     
    And if it sounds too over the top, swing by anyway, because that’s exactly what we want it to be.
     
    Thanks,
    TwinsCentric
     
    P.S. If you’re looking for a good place to start, stop by the front page or check out our one-minute cheat sheet. Or you can check out my blog there, which is where TwinsGeek.com will be pointing to sometime this week.
  8. John Bonnes
    This shortest of phrases makes our hearts soar
    Pitchers and catchers report
    We limped through last year but come back for more
    Pitchers and catchers report
    99 losses taught the boys things
    We yearn for the clean slate a new season brings
    Like Hornsby we stared out the window for spring
    Pitchers and catchers report
     
    Four tiny words and hope’s candle’s lit
    Pitchers and catchers report
    Gardy will make sure they get after it
    Pitchers and catchers report
    Smith was relieved and Ryan’s the man
    He let Cuddy go but got Josh Willingham
    We’ll hope that Capps moon shots don’t ruin his plan
    Pitchers and catchers report
     
    We love when they hustle and slide in the dirt
    Pitchers and catchers report
    But please Lord don’t let the boys end up hurt
    Pitcher and catchers report
    We’ll watch through our fingers when Frankie throws
    Obsess on the nogginof Justin Morneau
    And the Bilat’ral legs of our catcher Joe
    Pitchers and catchers report
     
    Finally you take your turn as poet
    Pitchers and catchers report
    Channel your winter frustration and show it
    Pitchers and catchers report
    The comments below are a great place to bleat
    Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat
    (But add words wherever, if like me you cheat)
    Pitchers and catchers report
    With apologies to Franklin Pierce Adams
  9. John Bonnes
    Don't believe the hype. There might be 66 guys in Twins spring training, but they aren't really competing for roster spots. In fact, there may not be a single roster spot to compete for.
     
    How come? Because of "options." Options are a MLB administrative rule that limits how long a team can keep a player on their 40-man roster but not bring them to the big leagues. Basically, they have three years before they need to commit to bringing that player to the majors. For a little more on it, check out this entry, where I compared it to the amount of time before you move from dating to married.
     
    If a player doesn't have "options" left, they cannot be sent to the minors without being offered to every other major league team for their 25-man roster. So a team risks losing that player, and that isn't a risk the Twins are usually anxious to take. Thus, a player without options almost always has the inside track to make it to Opening Day. And when you look over the 25 spots the Twins have available, player without options look like they're going to gobble up most of the open spots. Let's run through them.
     
    The Twins entered spring training with their lineup and rotation pretty set, which (barring any injuries) takes care of 14 of the 25 spots on the roster
    C - Joe Mauer
    1B - Justin Morneau
    2B - Alexi Casilla
    SS - Jamey Carroll
    3B - Danny Valencia
    DH - Ryan Doumit
    RF - Josh Willingham
    CF - Denard Span
    LF - Ben Revere
    Rotation - Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn & Jason Marquis
     
    That leaves 11 spots, which probably includes four guys off the bench and seven guys in the bullpen. There are heavy favorites for each of them:

    Drew Butera is likely the backup catcher unless the Twins are really enamored with newly acquired JR Towles.
    Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes are both out of options, so they're almost locks to be on the bench.
    The fourth spot might be the only open spot, but the obvious option is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who the Twins will be paying $3M whether he plays in the majors or minors.

    And there are similar roster crunches in the bullpen. Four of the seven spots will likely to Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Joel Zumaya and Brian Duensing, all of whom are slotted for late-inning roles. And the other three spots? It turns out there are three relievers without options:

    Anthony Swarzak is out of options, is right-handed and did a nice job in the swingman role last year. It seems obvious that he would make it.
    Jeff Gray is a right-handed reliever who has pitched for several team the last couple of years. The Twins picked him up this offseason off of waivers because he was out of options. The Twins want at least one more right-hander in the bullpen, so he would seem to be an obvious front-runner
    Finally, Matt Maloney is a left-hander that the Twins also picked up this offseason because he was also out of options. He has mostly worked as a starter, but so did Perkins before the Twins moved him to the bullpen. And a third left-handed reliever might make sense given that Perkins won't be used situationally.

    Suddenly there are 0 spots left and another 41 guys in camp.
  11. John Bonnes
    Today’s mystery category? Let’s see if you can guess from the clues…
     
    "What are the Twins television revenues?"
    "Why is everybody bitching about a $100 million payroll?"
    "Why couldn't the Twins sign Prince Fielder?"
     
    If you didn’t get it, don’t be too hard on yourself - it’s a little convoluted. The category is “What questions avoid THE question?”
     
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/__MGofCSWwMM/SvC2Pp-BBGI/AAAAAAAAAJA/on_4qxbl278/s320/baseball-money.jpg
     
    In Twins Territory, THE question has been: why did payroll go down $15 million following the second year of a publicly funded stadium? But because MLB teams keep their financial information so private, journalists are limited in the information they can dig up. Since that information doesn’t give the whole story - and because they want to share that information that they’ve uncovered - they find other questions so they can still publish the story. Or, they list what they found, and refer to it generally, but offer few specifics.
     
    My pithy intro might suggest I’m being critical of that strategy. I’m not - for two good reasons. First, because these are usually fine questions to answer, and every answer adds a piece to the puzzle. Second, because I‘m about to do much the same thing.
     
    On Friday night, in a Q&A session at the end of the Hot Stove Banquet, Twins President Dave St. Peter answered THE question candidly, if generally. He listed 3 factors:
     
    1) The Twins stretched payroll slightly last year, and so the reduction isn't really $15M over last year's budget.
     
    The last signing of last year's offseason was Carl Pavano, who signed for $8M. At the time, the Twins claimed they stretched a little to make that signing, and before that signing they were still looking into other players, albeit less expensive ones. So let's assume that accounts for $2-3M of the difference.
     
    2) The Twins will need to pay more for draft picks then they did last year.
     
    Last year the Twins paid about $3M for their top draft picks. This year the Twins will have five picks in the top 75. Thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, we know almost exactly how much those picks should cost: about $11M.
     
    That's $8M plus $2-3M from stretching last year and now the Twins are down ~$10-11M. We have $4-5M left to find.
     
    3) Finally, St. Peter anticipates a drop in revenue. He clarified this a few minutes later when he said that revenues from the ballpark tend to normalize on a per capita basis. In other words, as the novelty of a new ballpark wears off, people spend less on each trip to the ballpark.
     
    (By the way, the Twins also revealed during the media luncheon on Friday that they only anticipate about a 4% decrease in season tickets this year.)
     
    That makes sense. Since payroll is supposed to be about 50% of the total revenue, a $4-5M decrease in payroll would reflect an $8-10M decrease in revenue. That seems high to me, but not totally unreasonable, especially when St. Peter added that they aren't budgeting for 3,000,000 in attendance this year.
    (That last note, by the way, could further explain Phil Mackey’s story about Jim Pohlad taking a “wait-and-see” approach. When I read that story, I was outraged: ownership was expecting fans to make a financial commitment but wasn’t willing to make one itself. Reading between the lines, I wonder if the story isn’t a little different. After last year’s disaster, and with so much uncertainty, ownership directed management to use more conservative models for anticipated revenue. The effect is the same, and it’s essentially what Mackey’s sources said, but somehow this infuriates me less.)
     
    This shouldn't be meant to imply that I approve, or even completely understand. For instance, I still believe it is pennywise and pound foolish to not invest and additional $2M in backup plans at two especially questionable roster spots. And it isn't clear to me why some of that decrease isn't offset by increases in shared national revenues, which consistently increase for MLB teams. I still haven’t answered the question.
     
    But it gets us closer, and leads to some good news/bad news. The bad news is that the Pohlads are not the Ilitchs - they run a business as a business, and not as a charitable organization, no matter how much fun it would be to win a World Series. But it also implies that two of those three cuts should be one-time events.
     
    Hopefully so will this payroll reduction. Which may have been the real $15,000,000 question I wanted answered.
  12. John Bonnes
    Hyperbole is fun.
     
    http://www.shoebuy.com/pm/cuffl/cuffl458504_159613_jb1.jpgIt is. It’s also easy. Plus, it sounds so darn authoritative. No wonder it’s so often our go to form of entertainment.
     
    Our latest example (for baseball, because this is a baseball blog) was the deal the Tigers just signed with Prince Fielder. The Tigers suddenly became favorites to win the World Series. Which is interesting, because about a week earlier, even their candidacy for the AL Central crown was in doubt when their second best hitter, Victor Martinez, was going to miss the year after a knee injury.
     
    Is the hyperbole correct? Is Fielder such an upgrade over Martinez that the Tigers, who won 95 games last year (but only had the run differential of an 89-win team), are a lock for the AL Central?
     
    Let’s just do a little back of the napkin figuring on what this means the Tigers.
     
    Some of the hyperbole is dead on. Fielder is every bit that good. The contract is being called ridiculous by a ton of baseball analysts, but if you’re going to give a ridiculous contract to someone, Fielder is a pretty good choice. We like to make fun of his size, but there are 130 runs hidden in that ample waist and his size hasn’t stopped him from playing at least 157 games per year every year since 2006. He's probably even better than you think.
     
    A really nice metric for measuring a hitter’s offensive impact is Bill James’ Runs Created (RC). James demonstrated that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bats a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players.
     
    (It’s a fun metric, and if you have an extra five minutes to dive into details, I did a short tutorial on it here.)
     
    Using RC (as pulled from ESPN.com), Fielder has created 130, 114 and 141 runs for the Brewers each of the last three years. Martinez, on the other hand, is no slouch, but has generated 91, 81 and 105. That’s about 35 runs less per season than Fielder.
     
    Fielder also hasn’t been a terrible first baseman. He’s below average, but has cost his team only about five run per season the last few years. The bigger concern for the Tigers is the talk about Miguel Cabrera moving back to third base. He wasn’t a terrible third baseman with the Marlins, but that was back in 2007. It’s not too crazy to suggest he would be one of the worst third basemen in baseball if he were to play there full time.
     
    The worst third basemen in baseball cost their teams about 15-20 runs last year. Which would still mean that the Tigers are coming out ahead 15-20 runs. That’s about two wins.
     
    But is that really going to happen? The Tigers might not WANT to put Cabrera or Fielder in the DH spot regularly, and those players may not want to play there either. But nobody is going to want to watch Cabrera embarrass (or hurt) himself either. And if you're going to play Brandon Inge anyway, wouldn't you rather play him at third? So those other 15-20 runs are in play, too. That could be another two wins.
     
    Still, the hyperbole probably isn’t accurate. Fielder likely improves the Tigers above and beyond what Martinez could have provided, adding 2-4 wins. That certainly strengthens their hand, but it doesn’t launch them into a world-class level, and they’re still within reach of whichever other AL Central team puts things together this year.
  19. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about the Kendrys Morales signing, Josmil Pinto's future being in flux, John's amazing dance moves at the KFAN party, Jason Kubel being let go, Nick Gordon and the Twins' draft picks, when to cut bait on Kevin Correia, trolling the Joe Mauer waters, wedding dock collapses, mailbag questions from listeners, and when not to get married for money. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.
     

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