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John Bonnes

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Blog Entries posted by John Bonnes

  1. John Bonnes
    I’m not particularly fond of how Minnesota treats its sports stars. The Puckett-like love affair is rare. More often, we pick nits. Kevin Garnett doesn’t score enough, or isn’t clutch enough. Joe Mauer doesn’t hit for enough power or doesn’t show enough leadership. Fran Tarkenton can’t win the big one, Harmon Killebrew is too quiet, Rod Carew is self-absorbed … the list goes on and on.
     
    (There are forces at work here that are slicker and far more powerful than subjective analysis. It feels like it has to do with the human need for entertainment, or drama, or our self-identity forcing us from one side to the other to find our niche. I have to believe some bright person has studied this – the ebbs and flows of fame in a celebrity culture. If anyone knows of any books on this, I’d love to hear about them.)
     
    I’ve defended Mauer consistently throughout his career. Most recently, it was an ongoing topic on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast for most of this offseason. The last time I wrote extensively about fan reaction to Mauer was just before his breakout 2009 season, in a story titled “I Was Promised Superstar.” If you have a minute, I think it’s worth the click. It recaptures the Mauer debate four years ago, and it’s funny how it has changed and how it hasn’t.
     
    What hasn’t changed is the “health” debate. That was a concern eight years ago, and it’s a concern now, though the early returns this year appear positive. Whatever preparation or medical treatments Mauer has undergone are paying off, but I wonder if the important change wasn’t one of philosophy. Prior to this year, there was a “Iron Horse” stubbornness about how often Mauer should play catcher, certainly fromh Mauer and possibly with the organization. Catching wears down a player. (In fact, we studied how that hurt Mauer’s performance a couple of years ago.) This year, he’s playing every day, but “resting” at first base and designated hitter. And the overall results have been good.
     
    The other debate that might benefit from a change in philosophy is the “power” debate. It seemingly went away in 2009 when Mauer hit 28 home runs on his way to the AL MVP award. It came back in 2010 when the Twins moved to Target Field and opposite field home runs became the stuff of fairy tales. In 2009, most of Mauer’s power was opposite field home runs. He’s hit just 14 home runs since the move to Target Field, and only two within its confines. To change that trend would require pulling the ball, a change that the uber-patient Mauer seems reluctant to even attempt.
     
    It’s also worth noting that while it’s fun to cite “Games Played” statistics and what he’s batting with runners in scoring position, the overall impact numbers like WPA show that the fans know better than stats. Mauer hasn’t had a particularly positive impact on games this year. Friday night’s game (in which he demonstrated some power with a double and triple) was what finally lifted him to an impact above “historically mediocre.”
     
    If you’re wondering why fans have booed Mauer, that might be explanation enough. He generated enormous expectations, cashed in on those enormous expectations, and in what should be his prime years he isn’t living up to them. Add to that a reluctance to change his philosophy, whether it be pulling the ball or swinging at a first strike. Finally, he’s also the face of a franchise – another role which he signed up for and for which he is richly compensated – which appears to be exiting its golden era.
     
    Add that up, and you get frustration, and frustration, not ignorance, is why fans boo.
  2. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about the Twins' terrible starting pitching, Delmon Young not going to Hebrew school, booing Joe Mauer, putting past division titles in proper perspective, Ben Revere's brief return, skipping Francisco Liriano, Ron Gardenhire's odd bullpen usage, and jinxing anything and everything. Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes (where you can listen, rate and subscribe).

  3. John Bonnes
    I blame myself.
     
    I do. Heading to the middle of the eighth inning, I’m forced to leave my seat to pick up my kid at 10:00. By the time I walk through the stadium, I’ve heard the roar and see Jamey Carroll standing on third base with no outs and the third through fifth batters coming up.
     
    If I didn’t have to pick up my kid in 10 minutes, I SWEAR I would’ve stuck around. I mean – you know me by now. Is there anyone MORE superstitious?
     
    Four blocks away from Target Field I say to The Voice of Reason™, “Have you heard a roar yet? I haven’t.”
     
    “Nope.”
     
    Me: (Heavy sigh.)
     
    “Yep.”
     
    One can frame this game a lot of ways. I’m sure the Boston papers will frame it as a Cody Ross redemption game. And if the Twins third and fourth hitters would have managed to do anything remotely similar to what one expects from the eighth and ninth hitters, it would have been a different game, and a different column.
     
    But they didn’t. And it isn’t. Check that – SO it isn’t.
     
    I can’t talk too much about those criticat at-bats. I didn’t see them live. I saw replays of the swings. Apparently, Josh Willingham hit the ball hard but lined out to the third baseman.
     
    Joe Mauer swung weekly at an off-speed pitch and grounded out to first base. The at-bat looks worse because of how poor a hit it was – a dribbling play up the first base line. Of course, it was an off-speed pitch. On a full count, one might expect a pitcher to challenge a hitter, but with two bases open, why would he? He threw a 75-mph-pitch that Mauer had not yet seen and that was it. I want to come down on Mauer – I want to come down on everyone after this loss – but I can see what happened.
     
    A few more notes about the game…
     
    Capping Off A Loss
    Hey, at least Matt Capps hasn’t blown a Save (capital S) yet - just a game.
     
    Is that a cheap shot? Sure, but I don’t mean it to Capps. I mean it to the Twins, who seem to think that once a randome team sprinkles a guy with Magic Closer Dust (capital MCD), they’re forever a different guy. Capps now has four strikeouts in seven innings, which is under the league average, especially for relievers, but about average for him. To his credit, he hasn’t walked a guy. But he’s given up seven hits, which is about average for both him and your average major league pitcher. And, worse of all for a closer, he’s given up two home runs, which is about three times the average rate for a pitcher.
     
    Hey, it’s small sample size. It doesn’t mean much.
     
    Except that home runs were Capps’ soft spot last year and have been every year he’s struggled. He basically matched his career averages in all categories last season – except he gave up a couple of extra home runs. Which is what turned him from a below average closer into a really terrible closer.
     
    Which one MIGHT have anticipated, if he wasn’t all glittery with that MCD.
     
    Oooh, sparkly.
     
    The Other Story
    Minus that eighth inning debacle and a ninth inning home run, here’s what the game story would have included…
     

    Gardenhire took a risk I didn’t anticipate with the lineup tonight. Faced with wanting to get Chris Parmelee in the lineup instead of Clete Thomas (for which there should be wild applause), he didn’t take the safe route. Instead, he gave Willingham a rest at designated hitter and gave Parmelee a start in left field. From what I saw, Parmelee didn’t embarrass himself out there, which is REALLY nice to see. I was really happy to see this.



    But it didn’t pay off. Justin Morneau, who played first base, didn’t get a hit, and neither did Willingham. In fact, according to WPA, they impacted the game the most negatively of any of the Twins. Finally, Parmelee’s only hit came in the ninth, and was too little, too late.
     

    Danny Valencia should have been the hero of this game. Taking a 1-2 pitch with 2 outs to deep center? Really? I really hope this is a sign of things to come. Soon.

     

    The 6-4-3 double play that saved a run got the whole stadium excited. One can’t say enough about Carroll on that play, but it’s worth noting that the pivot was carried out by Trevor Plouffe. It’s exciting to see him make just a mediocre throw. That was phenomenal.

     

    Is manager Ron Gardenhire pulling his starters too late this year? It’s late, so I’ll let someone else crunch the numbers, but Marquis gave up that home run when he was after 100 pitches. It seems like the last week or so, I feel like the starter is having a decent outing, but by the time they’re done, they’ve given up enough runs in their last inning to inflate their ERA. It certainly happened tonight.

     

    Of course, part of that might be not having a lot of faith in the bullpen. Capps certainly furthered that concern, but did anyone else note that Glen Perkins didn’t make an appearance in the eighth again tonight? Perkins pitched yesterday, and was apparently unavailable, and that’s looking like a pattern.



    The thing is, he pitched yesterday when the Twins were already behind. (And then he gave up a run, so the team was further behind.) Just so we’re clear on where Perkins is so far this year: he hasn’t been particularly good, he hasn’t been available on back-to-back days, he has been hurt, and he just got a long-term deal. Everyone got all that? Good.
  4. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's latest ugly start, Luke Hughes leaving via the waiver wire, the clock ticking on Alexi Casilla and Danny Valencia, phone calls from listeners, why the bullpen has been better than expected, and why getting old stinks. Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes (where you

  5. John Bonnes
    I wrote this in 2003, but somehow haven't revisited it for a while. Give the recent stadium kerfuffle, it seems like a good story to revisit, especially because it reflects a core tenet of this site: sports ARE important, and we don't shouldn't apologize for thinking so.
    ~~~~


     
    Reject the fundamental assumption. After that, the arguments start answering themselves.
     
    This Sunday morning I was awakened by our 3-year-old son, at the customary time of 0-dark:30.
     
    "Dad. Is it mording?"
     
    "Do you want some breakfast?"
     
    "Yeah. Ana muffin. Ann milk."
     
    "What do you say?"
     
    "Pwease?"
     
    Without waiting for a response, he speed toddles to the kitchen while I went to get the Sunday paper. Big mistake. Because by the time I was putting the lid on his sippy cup, I was already seething over the editorial by Jay Weiner on the front page of the Op Ed section of the Star-Tribune.
     
    "When the sports furor dies down" is more rhetoric about how sports plays too big a role in our society. In particular, it points out that while the Twin Cities have been absorbed by the Timberwolves and Wild, the real world is still there, and it has real problems that we should start paying attention to. This argument is so common it's become a cliche: "It's just a game." What kills me is that sports fans, athletes and sportswriters simply nod in agreement, shrug their soldiers, and grunt something like "Yeah, I guess we're Neanderthals".
     
    It's funny that I never see editorials like this about other distractions from the real world. I've never seen a column talking about how people need to quit visiting art museums so they can concentrate on the spread of SARS. Or that we need to collectively take a step back from listening to composers so we focus more on CNN's coverage of the War in Iraq. And the reason we don't see columns like this is because the thought it ridiculous. We go to Orchestra Hall and the Walker precisely because they provide an escape from our everyday lives. They challenge us. They show us new ways to look at the world. They provide us glimpses of truths by reflecting them in a dance or a painting or a movement.
     
    Are sports so different? People who tuned into Game 7 between the Wild and Avalanche weren't doing so out of civic duty. They did so because it was a hell of a story. A hockey crazed state finally regains a professional franchise. Within three years, they assemble a collection of dependable but mediocre veterans and young talent, and somehow make the playoffs. Which lines them up to face the hottest (and one of the more expensive) veteran teams in the playoffs. Their fate seems sealed when they are a single loss from elimination, but they win a couple of high drama games and advance to face their division rivals.
     
    Are you kidding me? Take your pick of truths to reflect upon: Self-sacrifice? Complacency? Youth? Hunger? Patience? Hard work? Confidence? Trust? Each of us takes away the feeling and glimpse that sticks with us. And we won't know which one it will be, in part because this isn't some trite drama where we know the ending. It unfolds for the actors at the exact same moment as it does for the masses.
     
    But it's the existence of those masses that provides the real distinction between sports and the arts. One never sees columns like this about the arts because the arts don't attract as much attention. Sports is damned precisely because the masses do get caught up in the drama, and they will pay a lot of money to be a small part of it.
     
    And that's the fundamental assumption that makes me fume, moreso since I started watching out for this little fella providing the morning wake up call. The fundamental assumption is that if the public is paying attention to it, it must be crap. The fundamental argument is one of elitism, and once it is questioned, the rest of the argument falls apart.
     
    Why is watching sports so popular, both in terms of ratings and revenue? We've already covered that it provides compelling drama. It's also instantaneous, spontaneous and unpredictable. In addition, it's accessible, since most people have a passing familiarity with the skills involved for various games. That familiarity leads to discussion and feelings of community. Sports also translates well via mass media, such as print, radio and television.
     
    There are a multitude of other reasons as well, all of which only start to become apparent when you reject the basic assumption that the public is a bunch of morons. But that assumption is rarely questioned. We assume it is correct. Ergo, sports is, at best, a guilty pleasure. Ergo, we are dupes. This is precisely the hidden point of this sort of rhetoric, that the writer sits in judgement of where we provide our attention, or of the values we embrace.
     
    When I became a parent, I started becoming sensitized to this sort of game, to help my kids avoid the little traps that clever people play. As I watched the boy disperse muffin crumbs all over the kitchen floor, I wondered about the level of insecurity that would lead a person to attempt to convince folks that enjoying a baseball game with their family is irresponsible. And I seethed some more. Does this call for a letter to the editor? An email? I took a deep breath and decided instead that I needed something to reaffirm my faith in humanity.
     
    Maybe I'll see if I can get four tickets to the next Twins homestand.
  6. John Bonnes
    Every year USA Today examines the salaries of the Major League Baseball teams and their players and publishes them. Let's see that their numbers tell us about the Twins recent payroll cut....
     
    Swimming Upstream
    Twins payroll went from $112.7M last year to $94.1M this year, a decrease of $18.6M or 17%.
     
    Overall, MLB payrolls increased 6%. If the Twins payroll from 2011 would have increased 6%, the payroll would have been $119.5M, $25.4M more than actual level.
     
    Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan are making $25M this year with their new teams.
     
    Prince Fielder is making $23M with the new contract he signed with the Tigers.
     
    The top 3 free agent pitchers this year – CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish and Mark Buehrle – all have contracts that are back-loaded or, in Darvish’s case, come with significant money going back to his Japanese club. Because of that, those three are making less than $25M this year combined.
     
    Not Alone
    The Twins were not the only team to cut payroll. 13 of 30 MLB teams cut payroll. For instance, the Yankees cut payroll, too. They went down $4.7M to $197.9M, which is still $100M more than the Twins.
     
    However, the Twins had the fourth biggest cut in payroll in dollars, and the fifth biggest cut in payroll by percentage.
     
    But the Twins were not the AL Central’s biggest cut. That honor goes to the White Sox, who cut their payroll $30.8M. They’re still the second biggest spenders in the AL Central. The Twins are 3rd, $2.8M behind the Sox.
     
    The Rise Of The Midwest
    Of the top five teams with the greatest boost to payroll, three of them are in the AL Central.
     
    Fifth is the Kansas City Royals, whose payroll rose from $36.1M to $60.9M, which is still $34 million less than the Twins. That 69% increase represented the second biggest percentage increase in MLB.
     
    Fourth is the Detroit Tigers, who increase payroll $26.6M to $132M. Almost all of that can be attributed to signing Prince Fielder.
     
    And second is the Cleveland Indians, who spent an extra $29.2M to raise to $78.4M.
     
    The Miami Marlins, who moved into a new ballpark, had the largest increase, both in pure dollars and by percentage. Their payroll increased by $61M, more than doubling their payroll last year.
  7. John Bonnes
    In which Aaron and John take the podcast to the radio with their KFAN debut and talk about Clete Thomas' big first impression, Ben Revere's demotion to Triple-A, what the rotation looks like after injuries to Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, why Liam Hendriks is sticking around, what the future holds for Francisco Liriano and Alexi Casilla and what Delmon Young and porn have in common. Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews) and
    our new sponsors: KFAN & Pickpointz.

  8. John Bonnes
    The Twins won their first game of the season last night as their bats defeated Jared Weaver, the Los Angeles Angels, and the Twins own defense by a score of 6-5.
     
    It was a victory not just for the players on the field, but for the front office and coaching staff, as it finally validated decisions they had made throughout the offseason and spring training. Those decisions, contrary to the popular view of the Twins as a fundamentally sound team, have emphasized scoring runs over solid baseball. Tonight, they were proved right.
     
     
    For instance, the Twins signed 38-year-old career utility infielder Jamey Carroll to handle the premier defensive position of shortstop. To be sure, he was an upgrade defensively over last year's primary shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but so were most bipeds with opposable thumbs. (With the possible exception of Trevor Plouffe.) But Carroll was signed for s significantly bigger financial commitment than several other significantly better fielders because of his ability to get on base.
     
     
    Tonight, after starting the season hitless, that worked out. On the one hand, he let a throw from Denard Span get past him that led to the fifth Angels run of the ball game, because the ball had the gaul to bounce before it got to him. But he more than made up for that gaffe with two huge hits. The first, a double, led to the Twins first run of the game, tied up the game and started a 3-run inning. The second, with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, plated the winning run.
     
     
    The biggest decision the Twins made during spring training involved realigning the outfield defensively. It benched defensive ... oh, let's go with "specialist" over "messiah" because it'e more conventional ... Ben Revere. But it added breakthrough rookie Chris Parmelee to the roster and moved slugger Josh Willingham to left field, where he felt more comfortable.
     
     
    He didn't look very comfortable there in the fifth inning. With two outs, a hard-hit but catchable ball was hit to the wall in left field. Willingham missed it painfully, crashing into the wall. That resulted in a three-run inside-the-park home run that blew the Twins only lead of the season and gave the Angels a 4-3 edge.
     
     
    But Willingham looked downright cozy a half inning earlier. That's when he turned on a Jared Weaver pitch to break the 1-1 tie with a 2-run blast that gave the Twins their first lead OF THE SEASON. He also just missed another extra base blast in his next at-bat when it drifted foul be a couple of feet. Note to Twins management and batting instructors: it might just be that pull hitting is desirable at Target Field.
     
     
    That sequence - giving up three, adding two - would still leave Willinghame and the Twins spring decision in the red if not for the other beneficiary of the outfield realignment, Chris Parmelee. Down by two runs and facing a southpaw that was specifically brought in to pitch to him, Parmelee drilled a ground ball down the first base line where Albert Pujols was fortunately not holding a runner, because there were two men on base. The hit plated the two tying runs and Parmelee took third base when Torii Hunter awkwardly fell into the right field base line fence. Parmelee later scored the winning run on Carroll's hit.
     
     
    Hot bats from three newcomers, none of which necessarily exemplify the Twins defensive ideal, won this game. While some Twins defensive issues basically cost them five preventable runs, perhaps defense is something upon which this team can improve. They'll likely need to, but they didn't need to tonight.
  10. John Bonnes

    Chasing Offense

    By John Bonnes,

    Let me count the ways in which the Twins focused on adding offense this year:
     

    Of the ~$18M the Twins spent this offseason, $14M were spent on adding hitters. The only exceptions were bargain-shopping acquisitions of Jason Marquis and Joe Zumaya.
    Jamey Carroll was one of the first free agents signed this offseason, and he was given a 2-year deal, despite being limited defensively and being 38 years old? Why? Because he could get on base. He doesn’t have a hit this year.
    Ryan Doumit has a long history of injuries and is known as a poor defensive catcher. He was added because his career OPS is 774.
    Chris Parmelee was added to the roster despite never playing at AAA.
    Ben Revere was moved to fourth outfielder and most of the outfield realliged to add offense, just a couple of weeks before the season began.
    Morneau was moved to designated hitter to allow him to remain healthy, so the Twins could have more offense.
    Mauer, even when he’s not catching, has been in the starting lineup every game playing another position, because he should be able to provide more offense.
    Danny Valencia is starting at the hot corner despite his managers concerns about his defense because at least he can provide some offense against southpaws.
    The last spot on the roster didn’t go to a utility infielder or a third catcher – it went to Sean Burroughs to act as a left-handed pinch hitter.

     
    There have been any number of moves that I have been critical of the Twins this offseason: re-signing Matt Capps, gambling on Joel Zumaya, signing Ryan Doumit given his injury history, cutting payroll, etc. But the one thing I could not say is that the Twins undervalued the impact of offense. Indeed, the exact opposite has been true. Almost every decision they have made this offseason was made to maximize their ability to score runs.
     
    And yet, four games (and six runs) into the season, that’s exactly what is killing them.
  11. John Bonnes
    Series Preview: The Angels By The Numbers
     
    92.5 – The “over/under” estimate from casinos on the number of games the Angels will win this year. That’s the highest number of any team in the AL West.
     
    73 - The “over/under” estimate from casinos on the number of games the Twins will win this year.
     
    Offseason
     
    317,500,000 – The dollars the Angels guaranteed to pitcher CJ Wilson and slugger Albert Pujols when they signed them this offseason.
     
    154,000,000 – USAToday’s computation of the Angels payroll this year, 4th most in MLB. It is $61M more than the Twins.
     
    In The Dugout
     
    12 – Years in which Mike Scioscia has managed the Angels.
     
    +188 – How far over .500 Scioscia has been as a coach in those 12 years. By comparison, Ron Gardenhire is +109 in 11 seasons.
     
    9 – Years in which Scioscia has received at least one Manager of the Year vote.
     
    75 – The least number of games a Scioscia team has ever won. That was back in 2001.
     
    On The Hill This Series
     
    7th – Where Dan Haren, who is scheduled to pitch the 3rd game versus the Twins, finished in American League Cy Young voting last year.
     
    6th - Where CJ Wilson, who is scheduled to pitch the 1st game versus the Twins, finished in American League Cy Young voting last year.
     
    2nd - Where Jered Weaver, who is scheduled to pitch the 2nd game versus the Twins, finished in American League Cy Young voting last year.
     
    Phat Albert
     
    11 – Seasons Albert Pujols has been in the majors.
     
    10 – Seasons in which Pujols has been a top 5 finisher in MVP voting. In 2007, a year in which he hit a career low 32 home runs, he slipped to ninth.
     
    7 – Seasons in which Pujuls has either won the MVP award or been the runner up.
  15. John Bonnes
    I know the Twins still have five days until they get to play the Orioles, but I can’t wait. The roster is set. There are a couple more meaningless games against the Rays, because you can’t play enough meaningless games against the Rays. And then a game versus the Miracle? Really? I’ll be damned if I’m not going to look forward to Friday.

    Orioles By The Numbers


     
    Overall
    69.5 – The over/under Vegas set for Orioles wins this year. Which means if they go 70-92, they would still exceed expectations. That’s the worst over/under in the American League.
     
    103-116 – Manager Buck Showalter’s record with the Orioles.
     
    2-6 – Twins record against the Orioles last year.
     
    Pitching
    30 – Where the Orioles whole pitching staff ranked in ERA last year, one spot behind the Twins.
     
    5.39 – The collective ERA of the Orioles starting rotation, worst in the major leagues.
     
    0.57 – How much worse that ERA was than the second worst team.
     
    3 – Days before the season opener that Showalter will be announcing his Opening Day starting pitcher and the rest of the Orioles rotation. That’s Tuesday.
     
    13 – Combined number of wins the Opening Day starting pitching candidates, Jake Arrieta and Tommy Hunter, had last year. (Both are right-handers.)
     
    Offseason
    $3.25M – Biggest contract the Orioles paid to a free agent from MLB this offseason. That’s not per year - that’s total.
     
    $19.5M – Amount Orioles spent on a pair of Japanese starting pitchers, Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada.
     
    .290 – The highest batting average of an Orioles everyday player last year. It belonged to Vladimir Guerrero, who was not signed during the offseason and is considering playing in Japan.
     
    Offense
    14th – Where the Orioles offense ranked in runs scored last year in MLB.
     
    196 – Number of times Orioles third baseman Mark Reynolds struck out last season while hitting .221.
     
    .806 – The highest OPS of any Oriole regular last year. It belonged to Mark Reynolds.
     
    7/9 – The fraction of this year’s Orioles lineup that had an OPS of at least 750 last year.
     
    0 - Percent chance JJ Hardy will not be ready for Opening Day, according to JJ Hardy. He’s been out for a week with discomfort in his right shoulder and received a cortisone shot for it on Thursday.
  16. John Bonnes
    Five weeks. Just five weeks. Here's what you magnificent people have been doing in the five weeks since pitchers and catchers reported:
     

    We’re up to 1100 registered members, and nearly 500 of them have contributed to the community.
    The forum holds 500 discussion threads that have generated over 5000 individual posts, or about 100/1000 per week.
    321 individual blog posts by our members on 62 blogs, or about nine every day.
    Those have been read by 34,765 unique visitors who have stopped by 134,000 times.
    Last Thursday we had 621 people visiting the site all at the same time.
    And finally, the benchmark that drove us to do this research: over half a million page views.

     
    The goal of this site was to make it easier for Twins fans to find great independent Twins writers and thinkers. But having 35,000 people discover posts and blogs of hundreds of our members over half a million times in a little over a month? I’m pinching my PC screen. This can’t be real.
     
    So again THANK YOU all for coming together and doing this. PLEASE: read, join, post, write and share with your friends. You have something to give. We’ll do our best to make sure we do our best to help people find it.
     
    Time for a couple of important notes…
     
    Ads
    You’re going to start seeing ads on TwinsDaily. Believe it or not, this is a good thing. For a community to thrive, it needs to be able to pay for itself, and all this activity (not to mention the initial investment in the web site) costs money. Ads are the last cornerstone to keep this community self-sufficient. It also reflects how thriving this community is - nobody advertises where there aren’t people. We’ll try and keep them from being overwhelming and hope you’ll support them the way they’re supporting all of us.
     
    By the way, the implementation of those ads might not be totally seamless. We’re feeling our way through this thing. As always, let us know if you think we’re screwing up.
     
    Spam
    The spambots have found us. Every morning Nick, Seth, Parker and I scour the site trying to stay on top of them, but it’s mostly reactive. So if you see one we’ve missed or haven’t found, please click on “Report” and we’ll get on it (and ban the user) as soon as we can.
     
    Play Nice
    Communities do a lot better when people show each other a level of respect. So we’re enforcing no vulgarity and no personal attacks. If you find a post that you think violates that, rather than lash out yourself, report it to us.
     
    Avatars
    Finally, let’s all get avatars, ok? Here’s how:
     
    When you’re logged in, click on “Settings” in the upper right hand corner (or here.)
    Click on Edit Avatar on the left-hand side.
     
    Thanks again everyone. As always, let us know your thoughts below or in the Questions About Twins Daily Forum. I don’t know exactly how the Twins season is going to go, but I’m sure glad we found each other and can share it together.
  17. John Bonnes
    "My gawd - THEY are afraid of US? Really?"
     
    That's the thought that went through my head last night when a flame war broke out on Twitter between two local groups that had established a uneasy truce in recent years: corporate media and independent writers, commonly labeled bloggers. The critical topic? Baseball.
     
    Or rather, that’s the subject matter about which the involved parties write. The topic was the power of independent writers and the checks and balances from which they are seemingly immune.
     
    Concern 1: Independent writers are just fans who benefit from having a very large platform.
     
    It's true. Some independent writers have very big platforms from which they can distribute their messages. In fact, yesterday, Twins Daily, a site that hosts independent baseball writers, announced they have drawn 34,000 unique visitors to view half a million pages since they launched five weeks ago. So yeah, they have a hell of a big soap box.
     
    But that platform was not handed to them by a media entity established decades before by writers who built up an audience. Rather, the independent writer IS the person who built up the audience. They find themselves free to do with it what they want.
     
    Concern 2: Independent writers don't have the same accountability of corporate journalists.
     
    It's true. Journalists can be fired for their mistakes, but not independent writers. Know why? Because independent writers never asked to be hired. They are not dependent on pleasing anyone other than their audience. Their livelihood likely isn't even dependent on that. Their audience decides how accountable they need to be, not their corporate masters.
     
    Like any writer, if they screw up, they can publicly mocked and condemned. I wonder if they'll be able to handle that?
     
    Concern 3: Independent writers don't appreciate the value of Access and the accuracy it brings.
     
    It's true. Access can increase accuracy, provided those being interviewed feel like telling the truth. But one cannot have that Access without accepting compromises, whether it be trying to steer clear of a public relations doberman or hesitating to criticize a player whom one personally admires. Indeed, navigating these challenges is the art of journalism.
     
    Since the independent writers don't have that Access, they've taught themselves how to live without it and still find compelling content and an audience. In fact, most who have achieved a certain level don't want that Access. They'll trade any accuracy it includes for objectivity, thanks very much.
     
    (Incidentally, the people who want the independent writers to appreciate that Access are precisely the same groups that work so hard to deny it: the baseball teams and the journalists.)
     
    The bad news is that the concerns are real. The media is damn astute to be nervous about the power the independent writers wield right now. They're popular, they don't give a crap about Access and they're beholden to no one.
     
    The worse news is that they helped create them.
     
    But I do have some good news for concerned corporate journalists who want to enjoy all those same benefits. It's one easy step away.
     
    Just quit your jobs.
     
    After you find other income, devise compelling stories which are not fed to you by player or coach quotes, and write independently for several years with no compensation, you might just establish an audience. Then you too can be criticized by the corporate journalists.
     
    And feared.
  18. John Bonnes
    Fueled by interviews with assistant GM Rob Antony and manager Ron Gardenhire, yesterday became the best day of the year for Twins spring training news. The result? Almost every projected lineup you saw this offseason was probably wrong. Instead, you’ll like see a whole lot of Josh Willingham playing left field, Ryan Doumit playing right field, Justin Morneau as the designated hitter and Chris Parmelee playing first base.
     
    The shakeup happens twelve days before the regular season starts and about a week before the Twins break camp. Like any reorg, it resulted in some good days and bad days:
     
    Good Day: Parmelee
    Not only does it look like Parmelee made the major league team, it looks like he is in position to be a regular without ever having played a game at AAA. That speaks highly of the organization’s confidence in him, confidence which is fueled by his second half in New Britain, a tremendous September call-up and a spring training where he has continued to show power.
     
    But make no mistake, this plan hinges on Parmelee being a productive major league player. That is an open question. Parmelee has averaged just twelve home runs and a .266 batting average over his six years in he minors. That’s not nearly enough production for a first base prospect. If he falls flat, this plan looks a hell of a lot worse than any of those offseason projections. That’s because this next guy is suddenly a guy without a position.
     
    Bad Day: Ben Revere
    When Gardenhire announced yesterday that Willingham was going to be his everyday left fielder and Span his everyday center fielder, Revere was left without a position. Revere’s defensive strength is his range and his weakness is his arm. In Target Field that makes him a fantastic left fielder and a decent center fielder. But putting him in Target Field’s tiny right field negates his biggest strength and exposes his biggest weakness.
     
    The Twins say he’s competing for right field, but were he to win it, Gardenhire would look borderline insane. They also say he’s competing for a roster spot, but without him on the roster, there isn’t a backup center fielder, unless the Twins decide to go with Darin Mastroianni. I almost hope they do, because I think Revere needs to get everyday at-bats if he’s going to develop into the water bug he could become.
     
    Good Day: Gardenhire
    Though He may not feel like it, because filling out the lineup sheet just got a lot more complicated. But provided PFOHF (Parmelee doesn’t fall on his face), Gardy’s roster has a ton of flexibility and offensive options to protect his two biggest guns, Morneau and Joe Mauer. With Doumit on the roster, Mauer can play less at catcher, but still be in the lineup at first or DH. Morneau can take the spot that Mauer doesn’t and Parmelee can add his offense in right field. If Morneau needs a day off, Parmelee or Doumit can DH and Trevor Plouffe can play first base and punish a southpaw or two.
     
    Gardenhire also essentially replaces a bottom of the order bat (Revere) with a middle-of-the-order bat (Parmelee) for most games. My best guess on the lineup now looks like this:
     
    Span (LH)
    Jamey Carroll (RH)
    Mauer (LH)
    Morneau (LH)
    Willingham (RH)
    Parmelee/Doumit (LH)
    Danny Valencia (RH)
    Doumit/Parmelee (LH)
    Alexi Casilla (SH)
     
    If Doumit or Parmelee is hitting eighth, that’s a deep lineup. Congrats, Ron.
     
    Bad Day: The Pitching Staff
    The Twins offense just went from one of the better defensive outfields in the majors to one of the worst. That’s how big of an impact Revere’s range could have had. And if PFOHF then there is a real mess. Either Gardenhire has to move Willingham back to right field or the staff has to deal with a bad outfield AND know that it has been designed in almost the worst possible way.
     
    Bad Day: Nearly everyone hoping for a bench spot
    For a four-man bench, it appears three spots are taken: Luke Hughes & Plouffe (both of whom are useful and out of options) and Revere. That leaves one spot for either another catcher or a utility guy. Both could be classified as luxuries.
     
    The third catcher position doesn’t seem to be as critical now that we know Morneau will likely be seeing most of the at-bats at DH. If Doumit was the DH, and Mauer got hurt during a game, then they Twins would have had to have the pitcher bat if Doumit moved to catcher. That seems less likely now.
     
    And the utility infielder role was mostly about backing up the shortstop, but the Twins do have two other players, Plouffe and Casilla, who can play shortstop. If Casilla plays short then Hughes, who is having a monster spring, could play second base. And while the Twins claim they want Plouffe to stay away from the middle infield, Parmelee’s emergence likely means less platoon opportunities for Plouffe. Maybe he needs to be looking at a super-utility role.
  19. John Bonnes

    Mining For Twins

    By John Bonnes,

    When the Twins sent Tsuyoshi Nishioka down, they admitted that they might need to replace him with a guy from another team’s roster. They’re right. Looking at the guys that remain in camp, there isn’t another really good option, at least not one that can play shortstop.
     
    Fortunately, this is the right time to find just such a player. At the end of spring training, teams make all kinds of guys available: players without options, Rule 5 draft picks or just guys that are dropped from the 40-man roster to make room for someone else.
     
    In fact, the Twins took advantage of that just two years ago. They were faced with a similar problem – they didn’t have a great option to be the backup center fielder. Towards the end of spring training, the Dodgers released Jason Repko. A week later, the Twins signed him and he played here for the last two years.
     
    So let’s get a jump start on some names that you might see on the Twins roster in a couple of weeks, even if they’re with other teams now. All have their warts – we are talking about utility players after all - but some intriguing traits, too.
     
    Wilson Valdez – He’s the kind of guy you might expect the Twins to seek for this position. He’s old (33), has a good defensive rep, is on the Reds (who the Twins love to scavenge) and is full of veteran nougaty goodness. He’s also out of options, but is a long shot to be available. On the one hand, the Reds traded for him just a couple of months ago. On the other, it looks like they could have some similar, slightly younger options. If he is available, I gotta imagine the Twins will swoop in.
     
    Emmanuel Burriss – He’s just 27, he’s a switch-hitter and he has stolen as many as 68 bases in a year in the minors. He’s also out of options and batting for a bench spot with the Giants. However, he’s struggled to get on base in the majors with just a .311 OBP. More unfortunately, he’s having a fantastic spring and probably winning that last bench spot.
     
    Chris Nelson – This 26-year-old has struggled to find playing time with the Rockies and hasn’t done much (.254 BA/.284 OBP) when he has. However, he’s torn up AAA to the tune of .321/.371/.518 in 608 plate appearances. He’s out of options, and had only a mediocre spring so far, but a recent neck injury to Casey Blake might mean the Rockies will have room for him on the roster. Stay tuned.
     
    Donnie Murphy – He’s 29 years old (which is relatively old) and has only hit .202 in limited time over six years with three different teams. He also was hurt part of last year. Finally, he’s having a miserable spring with the Marlins and is out of options. He’ll likely be available.
     
    He’s intriguing because he represents a rarity – a middle infielder with some pop. His right-handed bat hit double-digit home runs in several minor league stops, and he has a .500+ slugging percentage at AAA.
     
    This is just a few of the guys, obviously, but they probably represent some of the more likely options. If you’ve got any other ideas, I’d love to hear them below.
  21. John Bonnes
    The news that Scott Baker is injured….
    Geek Chorus: Hold it – NEWS? Is that really news? At this point, wouldn’t it be news if Baker got out of spring training completely healthy? Isn’t “Scott Baker is injured in spring training” the status quo? Nobody says it’s news when it’s 70 & sunny in San Diego. It’s only news here because it’s March and Minnesota.
     
    Touché. Anyway, with Baker taking those first critical steps to yet another underachieving and frustrating season, I wondered about a debate that Aaron Gleeman and I have been having on the Gleeman and the Geek podcasts: will Scott Baker be with the Twins next year?
     
    Let’s set the stage. Of the five Twins probable starting pitchers, three will be free agents at the end of the season: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Jason Marquis. Scott Baker could be the fourth, but the Twins have a $9.5 million option for him. I can’t imagine him making that much per year on the free agent market if he has another year anything like his last three.
     
    On the other hand, there is (almost) no such thing as a bad one-year contract. He still has promise. And it’s not like the Twins have a bunch of young arms in the high minors for which they’re anxious to find a role. They might like a little stability, even if it means overpaying for Baker.
     
    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/2013_Payroll_1.jpg
    The question is: could they afford to overpay for Baker? To figure that out, one needs to take a look at what the roster might look like in 2013 and do a little back-of-the-napkin calculating, which you’ll find on the right.
     
    Can the Twins afford to pick up Baker's option? The short answer is: yes, probably.
     
    As things sit right now, the Twins would have $30 million to spend on four starting pitchers. Presumably, one of those is going to be prospect Liam Hendricks, who might very well take over Baker's spot in the rotation if he's out for any length of time. And he’ll make less than $500,000.
     
    The Twins aren't likely to drop $30 million on the three remaining starting pitcher spots, because pitchers who cost $10 million per year tend to only be available on longer multi-year contracts which the Twins avoid. The exception, of course, would be Baker and his option year.
     
    So even if Baker has yet one more substandard year, he could be in line for that extension. A mixture of need, promise, likeability and extra budget dollars means that Baker could be around in 2013.
     
    We'll watch this season unfold before we pass judgment on should.
     
    Other Notes
    The Twins have two other decisions to make next year, too. First, Alexi Casilla, if he plays the full year, will probably be up for at least a $2 to $3 million salary. Just because they Twins seem to be focused on other options long-term, I didn’t include him. I hope he has his breakthrough this year and I’m wrong about that.
     
    The other is Matt Capps. The Twins have a $6 million option on Capps for next year. I think the Perkins extension indicates the Twins have plans for him to ultimately take over the closer role, which might finally and mercifully end the Twins obsession with Capps. But I've been wrong about that before.
     
     
    TwinsDaily
    The hottest Twins topic is who is going to make the Twins roster, and Jim Crikket posted a nice primer if you want to catch up on who your newest Twins might be. If you want to be a little more specific, or check in on your favorite dark horse, check out Thryloss' dashboard look at how each bench and bullpen arm has performed.
     
    Seth, meanwhile, continues to take a look at how the Twins stack up against the rest of the AL Central at various positions. Surprisingly for a 99-loss team, they look awfully good. Of his latest two positions, I'd argue the Twins have the second best right-fielder in the bunch and the best center fielder. There just might be some hope after all....
     
    Things are not so sunny in the Forum. First, we keep trying to put last year behind us, but it really is hard, especially for the morbidly curious. Plus, when we focus on the spring, we're reminded that Tsuyoshi Nishioka still looks lost out there. Just how are we going to keep him off the roster?
  22. John Bonnes
    It’s still early in spring training – early enough so that our eyes could be fooling us from this bright sun thing – but maybe there’s some hope for the Twins bullpen after all.
     
    The bullpen has been a sore spots for Twins fans for…wow…how long has it been? This offseason, obviously. Last season, for sure. 2010 was a bit of respite, though there was enough panic to trade away Ramos Wilson for Matt Capps. In 2009 it struggled beyond Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier. 2008 was REALLY bad up until Jose Mijares was given a role for the last two weeks of September. In 2007…ok…I’ll let you decide where you want to draw the line, but it’s fair to say it’s been a sore spot several times recently.
     
    It looked to be so again this year, especially when free agent Joel Zumaya was injured which caused some bloggers to lose their cool. (Justifiably, I would argue.) It looked like the bullpen was going to be manned by - let’s make sure I quote this right – “either a member of last year's shaky corps or a waiver or minor-league pickup.”
     
    That’s still true. But some of those pickups are producing some surprising results, especially when it comes to some strikeouts. With three spots likely open in the bullpen, three guys – two right-handers and one left-hander – have shined in early contests.
     
    Jared Burton was scavenged from the Cincinnati Reds, courtesy of a shoulder injury and a hyperthyroid condition that cost him most of the last two years. That doesn’t change the fact that the 30-year-old right-hander has earned a 3.41 ERA in the majors over 169 innings. “Hits” are not a trustworthy stat in spring training, but the fact that Burton hasn’t given up any in his four relief outings, while striking out four and walking just one at least puts him on the right path.
     
    Left-hander Matt Maloney, statistically, looks like the most exciting option. Cincinnati was also kind enough to contribute Maloney to the roster this offseason, though at least it cost the Twins a 40-man roster spot this time. In the majors, Maloney has mostly been used as a starter, but in his relief appearances, he’s struck out 21 batters in 24 innings, with just six walks (albeit 28 hits). This spring he’s dominated, striking out eight in 5.1 innings, while walking just one and giving up just three hits. Those are numbers that can’t be ignored, no matter which inning one is pitching.
     
    Speaking of “which inning one is pitching,” Jeff Manship has steadily been working his way from the late innings to the early innings in spring training games – an indication that manager Ron Gardenhire wants him to face better competition. He’s earned it. In his four appearances, he’s struck out six, walked none and given up just two hits. Both times I’ve seen him, his strike outs came on a what Seth Stohs describes as a “spiked slider.’ I have no idea what that mean, but I love the name, and I love the way it ends up at a batters ankles as he swings.
     
    Manship has been with the Twins for years, making a few appearances with the big league club, looking mostly mediocre, both as a starter and a reliever. His biggest weakness has been that he just plain gave up a lot of hits. That wasn’t a weakness in the minors, and a strikeout rate in AAA nearing 7 per nine innings – mostly as a starter – indicates he could take a significant step up given the chance to relieve. For instance, Joe Nathan averaged 7.2 K/9 in AAA, also as a starter.
     
    Of course, Nathan had that nasty slider – but Manship also looks like he’s got his “spiked slider” and I’ve heard reports of a top shelf curveball, too. (Though, maybe they’re talking about the same thing. It’s hard to tell sometimes.) The point remains: if Manship can stay healthy – and the same goes for Maloney and Burton, knock, knock – the Twins bullpen, on the shoulders (literally) of some washouts and pickups, could look like a strength a month from now.
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