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John Bonnes

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Blog Entries posted by John Bonnes

  1. John Bonnes
    The Big Picture
    In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help.
     
    Why They Will Trade With The Twins
    The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano, since Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano.
     
    But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter.
     
    Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins
    Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles.
     
    It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas.
     
    However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors.
     
    Conclusion
    There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches.
     
    Possible Trade Targets
     
    Mike Minor – LHP
    He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal?
     
    Randall Delgado – RHP
    Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year.
     
    Julio Teheran – RHP
    He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to.
     
    A few more…
     
    Sean Gilmartin - LHP
    Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA.
     
    Zeke Spruill – RHP
    Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter.
     
    Carlos Perez – LHP
    Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually.
     
    Arodys Vizcaino – RHP
    The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March.
  2. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer making the All-Star team while Josh Willingham got snubbed, Aaron's vodka-filled experience at the SABR convention in Minneapolis, Ryan Doumit's contract extension, John returning from his East Coast ballpark tour, Trevor Plouffe staying hot, whether the Twins should be in full-on sell mode, the Francisco Liriano dilemma, and why Pizza Luce at 3:00 am is a bad life decision. Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  3. John Bonnes
    I could be a Pirates fan.
     
    Believe me, I know all that implies. As a middle-aged Twins fan, I've felt Pirates fans' pain, albeit in lesser doses. I can sympathize with the hopelessness and even apathy that sets in after years of mismanagement.
     
     
    Watching the supposedly competitive Bucs yesterday didn't inspire me to join them anytime soon. If you're wondering what the "traditional" Twins philosophy - pitching, defense and maybe a little hitting - looks like in the NL, look at the Pirates. I'm sure the announcers focus on the pitching and defense, but it's hard to get past just how inept that offense is.
     
     
    But I could be a Pirates fan, just because of PNC Park.
     
     
    I last visited PNC a couple of years ago when we sat with friends in the upper deck. I came away thinking I had found the best new ballpark in the majors, and maybe second to only Wrigley in my heart. That was reinforced last night.
     
     
    Last night we had much, much, MUCH better seats - 2nd row down the first base line just past first base - and they cost us just $34. (That's one of the other perks for being a Pirates fan - the cost for everything is quite a bit lower.) Like I said, they were great seats - actually a little below field level - but I think I might have liked the upper deck seats last time just as much. Why?
     
     
    Cuz this is the view from the upper deck.
     
     
    It helps that Pittsburgh is a beautiful city, which I did not expect before visiting. It is classic big steel, defiantly proud of its heritage, jutting its chin out at our expectations. The ballpark leverages that too, closing the adjacent riveted bridge that leads to downtown to everything but pedestrian traffic and independent vendors. The result is an urban ballpark plaza that also happens to cross the Allegheny River.
     
     
    My friend Bob joked about just how scenic the ballpark was and how the architect must have reacted to seeing the site. "It goes where? And I can turn it anyway I want?" He or she must have felt like they had died and gone to heaven. But give the Pirates some credit - they didn't screw it up, and it would have been easy enough to do. The ballpark works because center field doesn't have any bleachers, allowing the city and river to bleed into the park. I'm sure at some point adding a 10,000 seat tourniquet occurred to the bean counters.
     
     
    Not doing so proved prescient, because the Pirates aren't selling those seats anyway. The park was about half full last night. It felt a little like looking into the Twins future. That's bad news for us payroll trackers, but sure makes for a nice intimate ballpark experience. I enjoy the packed energy that is currently at most Twins home games, but I think I'll also like the camaraderie that comes from a smaller more interested crowd.
     
     
    I sure did last night.
  4. John Bonnes
    The Big Picture
    Stop me if this sounds familiar. A team with championship aspirations faces a slew of injuries to their best players. They find themselves last in their division but hope that the players return will boost them back into contention. At the trade deadline they must make a tough decision: stick to the plan or write off a season in a championship era whose window could be closing.
     
    Yep - the Phillies are having the year the Twins had last year. But instead of a fan base of Minnesota stoics, they play in the City of Brotherly Love. You can imagine how pleasant that is.
     
    Why They Will Trade With The Twins
    The Phillies are walking a delicate line. Despite injuries to superstar second baseman Chase Utley, first baseman Ryan Howard and ace pitcher Roy Halladay, the Philadelphia is only six games under .500 and just 5.5 games back of the wild card. They hope to have Utley back on Wednesday, Howard beginning a rehab assignment this week and Halladay returning in the middle of July. If they get healthy, and the Phils simply tread water for the next month, it will be awfully hard for them to give up on the season.
     
    Traditionally, the Phillies have had trouble finding good right-handed hitting to offset Utley and Howard’s left-handed bats. But they traded for Hunter Pence last year and he has an 803 OPS and catcher Carlos Ruiz has a (unsustainable) 978 OPS to lead the team. Add in that Juan Pierre is playing left field (and hitting .322) and it’s hard to see a fit for Josh Willingham, though in previous years he would’ve been an obvious fit.
     
    But what if Howard can’t come back strong, or if this injury (which has repeatedly defied expectations) looks like it might take more time than just this season to heal? If so, Justin Morneau would be a hell of a replacement for him, and it’s not like his $14 million salary would be much of a problem for the phree-spending Phils.
     
    Other options include Ryan Doumit if Carlos Ruiz' ribcage strain becomes a problem. The Phillies setup men – primarily Chad Qualls and Antonio Bastardo - have both been unreliable. If Halladay can’t recover, history suggests that the Phils aren’t afraid to chase high-ceiling pitchers like Liriano. Finally, there is one Twins player that could be interesting even if the Phils decide to pack it in this year. Their center fielder Shane Victorino will be a free agent at the end of the year and the Phillies don’t know if they’ll be able to re-sign him. Denard Span might be of interest as he’s under contract through 2015.
     
    Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins
    The most likely scenario is that the Phils do exactly what the Twins did last year: stand pat. It’s hard to give up on a year when expectations were so high and it’s easy to blame injuries. Plus, management can trot out the great cliché that they’re trading for three superstars just by getting healthy.
     
    Conclusion
    They’re worth watching, to be sure. The Phils have been very aggressive around the trade deadline in acquiring talent, and they haven’t been afraid to trade away significant prospects for the right pieces. But outside of Morneau as a Howard replacement, there doesn’t look like a great fit here.

    ~~~


     
    Possible Trade Targets
    Domonic Brown - OF
    You may have heard this name a the trade deadline in 2011. Or 2010. Or 2009. And now he’s 24. The Phillies have had several opportunities to trust him with a corner outfield spot, and it seems likely they’re never going to have room for him, even though he’s only had 246 AB in the majors. He hasn’t actually done much in the minors in 2011 or 2012 and he’s had trouble staying health (including being out right now with some strained knee ligaments). But did I mention that he’s just 24, and that two years ago he was posting a combine 980 OPS in AA and AAA?
     
    Trevor May – RHP
    May is a possible front of the rotation starter, topping most Phillies prospect lists. But he isn’t an elite prospect because of his struggles with his control. You might expect those issues (4.6 BB/9) to be further exposed as he climbed up the ladder and sure enough, he’s posting a 4.94 ERA this year at AA, albeit with fewer walks. Short of a big deal, he likely isn’t available, but he’s one of several options – Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America both have multiple pitchers in their Top 5 rankings of Phils prospects.
     
    Freddy Galvis - SS
    Galvis made the Phils roster out of spring training, starting at second base, courtesy of Utley’s injury. His year went downhill from there in a hurry. First, he hit .226. Then he fractured his back. And then he was suspended 50 days for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. His main asset is a terrific glove. It isn’t clear he has enough offense to be a regular starter – his career OBP in the minors is .292 – and the steroid suspension further clouds that issue. But he’s just 22 years old and has been relatively young for most of his levels, so a case can be made that there is still plenty of untapped potential.
  5. John Bonnes
    Aaron and special guest co-hosts Joe Nelson and Nick Nelson talk about Matt Capps' injury and the closer replacements, Trevor Plouffe's case for the All-Star game, what to do with Francisco Liriano, the buyer versus seller debate, Brian Duensing's move back into the rotation, more Josh Willingham heroics, Byron Buxton's pro debut, and why John Bonnes shouldn't even bother coming back from vacation.
  6. John Bonnes
    Some spring training moves are bearing fruit. The question is when they will be most ripe?
     
     
    Glen Perkins hasn't been especially effective this year, but he still profiles as possible closer long term, with well over a strikeout per inning. Even better, this spring he signed a deal that keeps his salary team-controlled through 2016 at a level considerably below that of a closer.
     
     
    So how should the Twins play that? On the one hand, they could trade him now to a team that finds a left-handed reliever (with closer potential) especially appealing. Or they could turn him into a closer later the year and (provided he excels and stays healthy) he becomes even more valuable. Or, I suppose, the team could hang onto him in the hope that the next competitive Twins team could still have him around. But that is by far the riskiest of the choices.
     
     
    The Twins flexibility is enhanced by another spring addition. Jared Burton has been more effective than Perkins (or closer Matt Capps) this year, despite handling earlier innings. He also has quite a bit of history being an effective reliever from before he joined the Twins. Finally, with 28 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 26 innings this year, he also looks like a possible closer.
     
     
    Burton has another year after this one before he turns a free agent, and he just turned 31 years old. If the Twins were to ponder trading away Perkins any time over the next year, they could prepare by putting Burton in the same position that they put Perkins in spring training. Namely, offer him a long-term deal at a setup man's salary which puts him first in line when there is an opening at closer.
     
     
    Or, they could just shop him around at the trade deadline. Or I suppose they could keep him as Perkins insurance.
     
     
    In some ways, the road block here is Capps. With his closer role, he's blocking two guys who are probably going to be more effective. If the Twins can trade him - even if it is for very little - it allows them to increase the value of at least Perkins and put Burton in an heir apparent role, providing incentive for a long-term deal. And if he becomes the closer, and they mine the minors/waiver wire for yet another arm, they can move him....
     
     
    This is how a non-competitive team can, fairly quickly, add core talent to their system. The team can afford to give relievers a chance to rediscover their stuff. They can afford to invest innings in them, even high leverage innings. And until the core pieces of a competitive team are in place, they can afford to let other competitive teams fight over these developed assets.
     
     
    The question isn't if they should do it. The question is when the fruit should be picked
  7. John Bonnes
    It was the end of the 2002 season. Jim Thome was finally a free agent after years of torturing the Twins. (And particularly, torturing Rick Reed. Good lord, did Big Jim take it to Reed. Thome hit more home runs (9) off of Reed than any other pitcher, even though he only had 27 at-bats against him. Think about that. He hit .333 JUST IN HOME RUNS against Rick Reed. Lordy.)
     
    Anyway, Thome was a free agent. As a blogger who is asked these sort of things all the time, I must have received the question "Will the Twins sign Jim Thome?" roughly a dozen times per week. Never mind that the Twins had made absolutely zero intimations that they intended to pursue Jim Thome. Or that the Twins had a left-handed DH at the time named David Ortiz. Or that the Twins still had no hint of a stadium. Hell, they had just barely survived contraction. And yet EVERYONE wanted me to tell them the Twins might chase Jim Thome, the biggest free agent on the market.
     
     
    It speaks to how Jim Thome always SEEMED like a fit for the Twins, even when there was no practical way in which he was a fit for the Twins. He publicly heaped praise on how the Twins played the game. He hit the snot out of our ballpark. He looked adorable wearing flannel next to a blue ox. He was a perfect fit, except that he was just too damn good.
     
    He signed that year with the Phillies for $85 million dollars. It locked him up for six years…during which time he still managed to end another Twins season with a game winning home run in game 163 for the arch-rival White Sox. Of course.
     
    But when the contract ended, the 39-year-old was looking to reestablish his career. Spurned by the White Sox, quarantined from the National League, he finally found his way to the Twins. (By the way, well played Bill Smith.) Not only did his career get taken off of life support, it produced a number of memorable moments: Thome passing Harmon Killebrew on the all-time list, his blast off the flagpole on Labor Day, his 600th home run and best of all….
     
    The home run off Matt Thornton that served as the dagger for the White Sox 2010 season. Hell, I would have raised Thome’s $1.6M salary just to hear Hawk Harrelson be rendered that utterly speechless in disgust. Some treasures cannot be bought.
     
    In a golden season for the Twins in so many ways, Thome added his own luster. And the next year, even in a season in decline, he served as a reminder of the dignity of the game. He’ll return to the Twin Cities tomorrow with his old/new team the Philadelphia Philles, giving us one more chance to reminisce about our favorite (and most painful) Thome moments.
     
    But don’t feel like you have to wait. That’s what the comments are for….
  8. John Bonnes

    Thome

    By John Bonnes,

    It was the end of the 2002 season. Jim Thome was a free agent after years of torturing
    the Twins. (And particularly, Rick Reed. Good lord, did Big Jim take it to Rick Reed.
    Did you know Reed still ranks as the guy that gave up the most home runs (9) to Thome,
    even though he only had 27 at-bats against him? Think about that. He hit .333 JUST IN
    HOME RUNS against Rick Reed. Lordy.)
    Anyway, Thome was a free agent and as a blogger who is asked these sort of things all
    the time, I must have received the question "Will the Twins sign Jim Thome?" roughly a
    dozen times per week. Never mind that the Twins had made absolutely zero intimations
    that they intended to pursue Jim Thome. Or that the Twins had a DH at the time named
    David Ortiz. Or that the Twins still had no hint of a stadium. Hell, they had just
    barely survived contraction. And yet EVERYONE wanted me to tell them the Twins might
    chase Jim Thome.
    It speaks to how Jim Thome always SEEMED like a fit for the Twins, even when there was
    no practical way in which he was a fit for the Twins. He signed that year with the
    Phillies for
  9. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about the Twins' youth-led turnaround, Byron Buxton and the power arm-filled draft class, Trevor Plouffe's homer binge, Scott Diamond's ace impression, Chris Parmelee's return from Rochester, Ben Revere's long-term upside, Liam Hendriks' impending re-arrival, the wisdom of re-signing Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis in pitcher heaven, Brian Dozier's struggles, and the exciting life on Aaron's balcony. Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes

  10. John Bonnes
    Last year in Twins Territory, Denard Span was the hot topic as the trade deadline approached, much to Span’s dismay. This year, we’ve read that the Nationals are still interested in Span. They certainly should be, given their stop gap centerfield solution, Rick Ankiel, is hitting just .221.
     
    But they likely aren’t going to be alone. Span plays a premier defensive position competently, but more importantly he gets on base as a leadoff hitter. One can bet a few of the below teams will at least be calling at the trade deadline this year.
     
    Los Angeles Dodgers
    The Dodgers have a pretty good centerfielder already, though Matt Kemp is out with a hamstring injury for at least a few weeks. What they don’t have is a leadoff hitter who doesn’t induce nausea. That job was speedster Dee Gordon’s to start the year, but he’s posted a .275 OBP, so they have turned it over to Tony Gwynn Jr. while he fills in for Kemp.
     
    Whether or not they need Span depends on whether you think Bobby Abreu, who was dropped by the Angels but has a 900+ OPS for the Dodgers in limited time, will turn back into a pumpkin. If Kemp stays out, Span can fill in for him. If Abreu grows old again, Span can play left field while leading off and Abreu comes off the bench. So stay tuned….
     
    Dodgers Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com
    Zach Lee – RHP – 4 stars
    Nathan Eovaldi – RHP – 3 stars
    Allen Webster – RHP – 3 stars
     
    Baltimore Orioles
    Like the Dodgers, the Orioles also have a center fielder having an MVP caliber year. But the Orioles also have big problems at their leadoff spot, with a combined OBP of just .253. Most of that can be blamed on Endy Chavez, though Robert Andino (.304 OBP) has done his share of damage, too.
     
    Again, the problem becomes finding a place for Span to play, though that doesn't appear to be a problem this year. A spot just opened up in right field where Nick Markakis was just put on the DL due to wrist surgery. There has also been a spot for a month in left field, where Nolan Reimold has been out with a bulging disk in his neck that has required multiple epidurals. Span could fit in with the Orioles long term there as Reimold is now 28 years old and has bounced between the majors and minors a bit in recent years.
     
    Orioles Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com
    Dylan Buncy – RHP – 5 stars
    Manny Machado – SS – 5 starts
    Jonathan Schoop – INF – 4 stars
     
    Cincinnati Reds
    The Reds lead the NL Cental with Drew Stubbs, a 27-year-old with a .300 OBP as their center fielder. He now has 1500 major league at-bats and a .249 career batting average. And believe it or not, he’s not the big problem.
     
    By the way, you’re warned – CAPS heavy sentence coming up.
     
    The big problem is the number .214. CUMATIVELY, that is the ON-BASE PERCENTAGE from the Reds LEAD-OFF hitters. It is as if every person they put atop the lineup becomes Drew Butera. Except that isn’t fair to Butera, whose career OBP is .231.
     
    I don’t know what to add to that. I’m a little stunned. How can they not get Joey Votto and Jay Bruce a little help? Let’s get to the prospects….
     
    Reds Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com
    Billy Hamilton – SS – 5 stars
    Devin Mesoraco – C – 5 stars
    Zach Cozart – SS – 3 stars (Huh. This is the guy who is leading off for the Reds, so let’s go one more...)
    Robert Stephenson – RHP – 3 stars
  11. John Bonnes
    Of the drafts the have had the last decade or so, I think it’s safe to say that the two first round picks for which the Twins took the most hear were 2001 and 2007. It might be worth noting just how ridiculous both of those look right now. In 2001, the Twins took Joe Mauer as the #1 pick and were lambasted for being too damn cheap and possibly blinded by a local kid. In 2007, the fiscal-based criticism was similar when they drafted Ben Revere and it was compounded by a perception that the Twins were way too happy with their annoying little Piranhas and devoid of power.
     
    If you take a look at first round picks the Twins have made, Mauer and Revere currently rank among some of the best, even given Revere’s limited role so far.
     
    The problem with writing about the draft the day after is that you’re writing in a void. After all, we have very little idea what these players will become. And when confronted with a void, the human mind creates a reality. So we start with rankings culled by a few media members and bloggers who are sensitive to what other media member and bloggers perceive. Then we extend realities from the ones we perceive while following the club, especially when they are supported by rankings.
     
    So which realities do you want to embrace?
     
    You could go with the “Twins Love Toolsy Outfielders” paradigm, which explains why the Twins nabbed high school prep star Byron Buxton. If you think that's a bad thing, maybe because you're disappointed by Aaron Hicks, then that's a bad thing. If you admire Denard Span or Torii Hunter, then that's a good thing. But, of course, neither Span nor Hunter nor Hicks have any impact on the development of Buxton.
     
    Or you could go with the “Twins Are Too Cheap” which explains why they didn’t select Scott Boras client Mark Appel with the #2 pick and leaves you feeling a little bitter. It explains why the next two picks - Puerto Rican high school pitcher Jose Orlando Berrios and college relief pitcher Luke Bard - were chosen slightly above where they had been ranked by Baseball America and other ranking systems. By doing so, the Twins might save money since these players don’t have that high bonus expectations others might have had. Or it could be that the Twins didn't agree with Baseball America's rankings.
     
    There will be others realities someone will want to extend. I'm quite sure someone will absolutely find a “Pitch To Contact” trend, though I think it’s going to take some imagination. More obvious is the “Twins Are Oblivious” since they didn’t come out of the first day with a college starting pitcher. Or a “Twins Are Medical Quacks” since third pick, Bard, is down with non-arm injury.
     
    I’m looking forward to reading them. But the longer I do this, the more I conclude that none of them are legitimate.
     
    Here’s what happened yesterday: the Twins nabbed some black boxes. Or maybe a better analogy would be some junk bond portfolios. Some are very promising, highly graded, with a possible high payout. Some are less so.
     
    Twenty-nine other traders did the same thing. They did so based on experience and insider information that we have little access to. Our perceptions on what drove them or didn’t drive them are probably wrong. More than likely, they looked at these opaque boxes, shook them a bit, and picked the ones they like best.
     
    Now we get to wait to see what’s in them.
  12. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton versus Mark Appel versus Carlos Correa, why Monday is the most important day of the Twins' season, first-hand scouting reports on Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and the Beloit team from special guest Seth Stohs, how Carl Pavano is the new Shannon Stewart, what to make of Francisco Liriano's impressive start, their PickPointz MVP picks, Ben Revere's bunting, and how Aaron looks in a black evening gown. Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes

  13. John Bonnes
    The June 4, 2012 edition of Sports Illustrated had a story by Tom Verducci where he attempts to document... well, he's a better writer than I'll ever be, so let's let him tell you...
     
    “This is a story about the real cost of steroids in baseball -- not the broken records, not the litigation, not the talk-show drone about the elite players who juiced and how to weigh their Hall of Fame candidacy. This is a story about the hundreds, even thousands, of anonymous ballplayers whose careers and lives were changed by a temptation that defined an era. It is also a story about the secrets we keep and the casualties we create when we allow the corrupt to go unspoken -- especially when the corrupt is something far more horrific than steroids.”
     
    The story is especially interesting to Twins fans because it is mostly about Dan Naulty, a reliever from the Twins from 1996-98 who came up through the Twins farm system. It compares his career to those of three similar Twins pitching prospects from the 1994 Fort Myers Miracle.
     
    Because of offseason steroid use, Naulty added about 60 pounds to his frame, 10 mph to his velocity and carved out a four-year career as a reliever. None of the other three made the majors, topping out in AAA, and the piece tries to focus on how a generation of clean players were cheated in their attempts to reach the majors, sometimes by teammates like Naulty who were covertly injecting steroids.
     
    But is also documents the costs to Naulty and this is the most comprehensive part of the story. It talks about why Naulty turned to steroids - how desperate he was and how few options he felt like he had. It also mentions personal challenges he had faced from childhood, including episodes of being sexually abused. It follows his major league career, which turned into an addiction cycle between performance-enhancing amphetamines and alcohol. It talks about him hitting rock bottom the night after winning the 1999 World Series and talking about suicide. And it talks about his recovery, his honesty in the Mitchell Report, and his new career as a pastor.
     
    Tangentially, it talks about the Twins organization at the time, but Verducci refrains from pointing any fingers. There are some details that probably make Twins officials cringe a bit. Verducci points out that of the six players from the 1994 Fort Myers Miracle who made at least $500,000 in their MLB careers, at least three (Naulty, Matt Lawton and Dan Serafini) are know PED users. However, especially in the naïve 90s, it's certainly feasible that Twins officials didn't recognize that Naulty’s offseason gains were due to drug use. His fellow pitchers certainly didn't. Brett Roberts, one of the fellow prospects that Verducci followed, reacted to the news about Naulty:
     
    "I guess I should have been suspicious. How can a guy go from 85 miles an hour to 95 in three or four years? As I look back on it, it's so clear and obvious that I can't believe I was that naive and incredibly stupid. All the signs were there."
     
    Roberts, who made it as far as AAA but no further, talks later about how cheated he feels.
     
    “’It's cheating,’ says Roberts, who bristles at the steroid users who made it. ‘It sticks in my craw because I know how hard I worked. Was I going to be a guy with a five- to 10-year career? Probably not. But I know I could have been there.’"
     
    That is another point of the story – how thin the line can be between making the majors and not making the majors, and how tempting it can be to do whatever it takes to cross that line. Later in the article, Verducci talks about how Naulty joined a Yankees prayer group that included Andy Pettitte, Mike Stanton and Jason Grimsley – all of whom found their names in the Mitchell Report. Nobody was immune.
     
    It’s a thorough, well-researched story and worth the half hour it will take you to read it. If you’re ready to dive into a depth beyond the effects steroids have on the record books, check it out. You can find the on line version here.
     

    ~~~


     
    Twins Daily already has a lively discussion on this story. You can add to it here.
  14. John Bonnes
    I don’t want to trade Justin Morneau. I don’t want to be rational about it. I want to clutch onto his comeback, keep it for my own, gaze at it among the dreck that this (and probably next) season has become. I’ve waited for this, I’ve craved it, and dammit, now I want it.
     
    We’ll see if I feel the same way in a couple of months, because that’s when the decision will need to be made. For there to be a decision, Morneau needs stay healthy, and he needs show the same kind of production occasionally that he’s shown this week. Those are two huge “Ifs.” And even then, would there be a market for his $14 million/year contract that goes through 2013?
     
    I think so. A quick look at the standings and depth charts show a few teams that might be interested. Let’s count down the top four that jump out at me….
     
    #4 – Pittsburgh Pirates – I doubt that the Pirates, who only have a $51 million payroll, would be willing to take on Morneau’s $14 million salary. I also don’t know if they view themselves as in contention, sporting a .500 record. But right now, they are just three games back of the Reds in a very weak NL Central. And their first base situation is a complete disaster: right-handed hitting Casey McGehee is hitting .184 and left-handed hitting Garret Jones is hitting .189 this May.
     
    If the Pirates find themselves close to contention at the end of July, their will be a lot of pressure to do something to boost their anemic offense, and it should start at first base. If the Twins can help the Pirates with the Morneau’s salary, one would think they could be compensated with some decent prospects.
     
    #3 - Cleveland Indians – This is a developing situation. First baseman Casey Kotchman has been ineffective. They also have Matt LaPorta, who is raking in AAA, but has a career line of .238/.304/.397 in the majors. Plus, at 27 years old, it’s not like he’s really a prospect any more – more like another option. Their big left-handed bat, Travis Hafner, is just coming back from an injury, and his health is always a question mark. And all bets are off if Carlos Santana has his own concussion problems.
     
    But with there are enough ingredients here to keep a watchful eye. Their first base situation is terrible. They’re contending. Hafner’s salary comes off the books next year. They showed last year they’ll be aggressive when it comes to trades. With the right mix, they could be very interested in acquiring, even overpaying, for Morneau.
     
    #2 Toronto Blue Jays – I don’t know if Toronto, who is a game over .500 but in fourth place in their division, really views themselves as being a contender. But if ever they were going to make a push, it might be a good idea to do so in a year that there are two wild card teams and the Red Sox are busy imploding. Their initial first base solution, Adam Lind, was demoted to AAA. Morneau’s left-handed bat would look pretty nice with the right-handed bats of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
     
    Oh, and I don’t know if you’ve heard this or not, but Morneau is from Canada.
     
    #1 Miami Marlins – Here’s the right mix of contention, spending and frustration. The Marlins trail the Nationals by just a couple of games. They have certainly signaled to the baseball world this offseason that they aren’t afraid to spend some money in their new ballpark. And 24-year-old prospect Logan Morrison is declining in his third major league year, hitting just .233 with a .323 slugging percentage. Finally, their lineup is desperately in need of a strong left-handed bat to balance the right-handed bats of Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton.
     
    The NL East looks like it’s going to be a bit of a mess all year, and winnable by any number of teams. (In fact, I could probably add a fifth team from that division – the Mets – to this list if I thought they were for real.) A pickup like Morneau is the kind of puzzle piece that GMs in that situation can get awfully excited about.
  15. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about Justin Morneau's resurgence, the Twins' options with the No. 2 pick, Jason Marquis' departure, Francisco Liriano's move back into the rotation, the best baseball movies of all time, first impressions of Cole De Vries, their PickPointz MVP picks, Johan Santana's return to greatness, and why Anthony Slama can't catch a break. Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes

  16. John Bonnes
    It was a risk without an acceptable backup plan. The Twins knew that. And it failed. And they’re paying the price. And that price is a .192 batting average.
     
    That’s the combined batting average of whoever the Twins have played in right field so far. It’s last in the majors. Their combined OPS is .594. That’s the career OPS of Juan Castro. And there isn’t anything close to a solution in sight unless the Twins want to mess with their best hitter.
     
    Two weeks before the end of spring training, the Twins shuffled the roster, deciding that Josh Willingham would move back to left field and Chris Parmelee would come north with the club as first baseman, essentially replacing Ben Revere in the starting lineup. The plan would work because Ryan Doumit had the flexibility to play a somewhat passable right field.
     
    At the time, it looked like a solid way to boost the Twins lineup, if Parmelee hit.
    When Parmelee fell flat early in the season, the plan went to hell. To his credit, Gardenhire has done a decent job playing musical chairs but any give night, there is position left standing. That position is right field.
     
    Seven players have started there and none of them have more than 13 starts. The projected starter, Ryan Doumit, only has six starts because on any given day there is a spot open at designated hitter or catcher that he can fill. And there is no use having him stumble around right field when it only means a questionable bench player will end up as the DH.
     
    The guy with the most starts is Trevor Plouffe. He would be the best option right now except:
     

    He’s hitting .152.
    He hasn’t shown any ability to hit right-handed pitching.
    He’s usually already at another spot in the field, playing an infield position now that Danny Valencia is in AAA.

    Seventeen starts have been taken by Darin Mastroianni, Eric Komatsu and Clete Thomas. They could all be valuable role players. None of them should be starting consistently in 2012 for a major league team.
     
    That leaves Revere, who has all of seven starts. Defensively, right field is a terrible position for Revere, as it limits his biggest asset (his range) and emphasizes his biggest weakness (his arm). Also, the jury is still out regarding Revere’s offense. He returned to AAA and hit .330 this year, but still hasn’t shown any ability to get on base beyond posting a crazy high batting average. Getting on base needs to be his game.
     
    The best option goes back to the original plan: moving Revere to left field where his defense makes him a real asset and having Willingham play right field. But I’ll excuse Gardenhire for not wanting to jack his cleanup (and best) hitter around.
     
    Like a lot of things the team is dealing with this year, there isn’t an easy solution. Even with a lineup that has stayed remarkably healthy, the Twins find themselves one legitimate bat short of a major league lineup on a consistent basis.
  17. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about Jason Marquis' implosion and the state of an increasingly ugly rotation, Drew Butera and Ben Revere turning into Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron, how the Twins handled Chris Parmelee, the Van Halen concert-going experience, Nick Blackburn's return to the disabled list, their PickPointz MVP picks, and Lewwwwww! Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes

  18. John Bonnes
    There is no question that umpires have biases. The question is whether we want them or not.
     
     
    A couple of years ago I reported on a book that I was reading titled Scorecasting by Tobias J Moskowitz and L. Jon Weerthem. This writeup is going to copy a lot of that story. The book is similar to the book Freakonomics, except that it focuses exclusively on sports. If you have an iPad or iPhone, you can download the first chapter for free – and just that much changed forever how I watch baseball.
     
     
    The chapter is about a bias that umpires have because they are, with the possible exception of Joe West, human. And humans are far more willing to forgive an error of omission over an error of commission. That is, we are more willing to forgive an error caused by doing nothing over an error caused by doing something. And thus humans are for more willing to commit an error of omission over an error of commission, because it gets us into less trouble. I’ll give an example from the book:
     
     
    “In a well-known psychological experiment, the subjects were posed the following question: Imagine there have been several epidemics of a certain kind of flu that everyone contracts and that can be fatal to children under three years of age. About 10 out of every 10,000 children with this flu will die from it. A vaccine for the flu, which eliminates the change of getting it, causes death in 5 or every 10,000 children. Would you vaccinate your child?”
     
     
    Most parents opted to NOT to vaccinate their child, despite it halving the chances of their child dying. The thought of doing something to the child which would cause his or her death was worse than the though of doing nothing and doubling the chances of death. The same bias is statistically apparent in umpires when it comes to calling balls and strikes and now I can’t help but notice it.
     
     
    In 2007, mlb.com installed the pitch f/x equipment in all the ballparks, providing data on 2 million pitches, including 1.15 million called pitches. Suddenly we could see from data how accurate umpires were in calling balls and strikes, and whether there are any circumstances that made them less accurate. It turns out there are.
     
     
    A ball that is in the strike zone is called accurately by an umpire 80.2% of the time. But that number dives if there are two strikes on the batter (and it isn’t a full count). Then, a ball in the strike zone is called a strike just 61.3% of the time. He’s almost twice as likely to mistakenly count a strike as a ball. Again, don’t forget – we KNOW that these are really strikes from the f/x data.
     
     
    The same thing happens the other way on pitches outside the strike zone on three-ball counts, though it’s not quite so drastic. A pitch outside the strike zone is called a ball 87.8% of the time, but if there are three balls (and it’s not a full count) it’s only called a ball 84% of the time.
     
     
    The reason? Because calling strike three or ball four ends the at-bat. It’s active – it affects the game far more than giving the batter and pitcher another pitch to resolve the at-bat themselves. The incentive is toward the error of omission rather than that of commission.
     
     
    Incidentally, this is most apparent on borderline pitches. Over all counts, a borderline is called a strike 49.9% of the time – almost literally a coin flip. But with a 2-strike count (again not a full count) it’s called a strike just 38.2% of the time. And with a three ball count, it’s called a strike 60% of the time. The percentages become even more extreme on 3-0 and 0-2 counts.
     
     
    This may be a bias that we, as fans, want to reward. For the first time, I thought about whether or not I really want to take that kind of call out of an umpire’s hands. Don’t we want someone who prompts the batter and pitcher to resolve their conflicts themselves? Even if it might not be a perfectly accurate call.
  19. John Bonnes
    I don’t know if these are questions, or thoughts, of forum topics, but after a 13-hour day, I’m pretty much free associating. Let’s see what happens.
     
    Because Fourth Place Is Just Five Games Away?
    Why is Carl Pavano pitching? The Twins long term strategy regarding Pavano needs to be to have him demonstrate enough success to get some value for him at the trade deadline, right? What is the purpose of trotting him out there at 80% to look below average? Get him healthy, let him string a strong month or so together and then shop him in July. Doesn’t this have to be the strategy? Why isn’t this the strategy?
     
    Or Maybe It Was Andy’s Whoopie Cushion.
    Liriano was Liriano. To me, the most encouraging sign wasn’t that he got the first five guys out, or that he bounced back to get out of the second inning after almost completely falling apart, or that he struck out three guys. It was that he smiled and laughed on the bench with Rick Anderson for the first time since last May.
     
    Including The Door On Your Wait Out.
    Capps hasn’t been bad this year, though last night was the second game he cost the Twins. I won’t site how many games he’s “saved” as evidence, but I think it’s worth noting that his WPA is still in positive territory even after losing 30 points last night. Mostly he’s still just Matt Capps – he has been for years, so he should know how by now.
    For all the talk about his new pitch, he’s got the same strikeout rate, a high home run rate and though he’s walking fewer guys. To me, he’s in the same boat as Pavano – the team needs to do whatever they can to boost his value, and if that means closing, then close away.
     
    Plus, We’ll Resemble The Pirates
    Ryan Doumit’s OPS is up to 763 after last night’s game, which is a lot closer to the bat I thought we were getting. That’s a season high mark – he was as low as 550 before he broke out in that Sunday game in Seattle, which was just a little over a week ago.
     
    But the better news is that he’s worked out far better than I ever thought he would so far. His defense at catcher is better than we had heard. He’s hitting left-handers better than I had anticipated (albeit without any power). And he’s been healthy. He’s also been the ideal guy to play on a team with Joe Mauer. I’m anxious to move a lot of guys at the trade deadline, but Doumit isn’t one of them. I don’t know what it would take to sign the 31-year-old, and I’d want to limit the years, but he looks like a hell of a good fit for this team for the next few years.
  21. John Bonnes
    I just listened to Denard Span short circuit a potential rally by trying to steal second base with runners on the corners and one out. He was caught. I wondered if that was an especially stupid decision.
     
    It turns out, it's not that risky. Or at least it's not if you accept that a baserunner usually needs to steal bases about 2/3 of the time to be effective.
     
    Generally, one studies something like this using Palmer & Thorn's Run Expectancy Matrix. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score that inning, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. You can find it here.
     
    Here's the numbers we care about:
    1. 1.088 - That's how many runs a team on average would score with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out.
    2. 1.371 - If Span would've stolen the base, that's how many runs the average team would've scored.
    3. 0.382 - If he was caught, that's how many runs the average team would score.
     
    So Span risked a gain of .283 runs if he stole that base, but a loss of .706 if he was caught. Converting those to percentages, if he steals that base 71% of the time, the team breaks even. That's not especially different than the 2/3 view that is the case for most base stealers. This wasn't especially risky.
  22. John Bonnes
    At some (very depressing) point, as a season becomes turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been coming since the middle of last week. The turning point was tonight.
     
    At some point, the focus changes from the team to the players. The moves become less about what the team needs, and more about what each player needs. It doesn’t necessarily mean coming down on one side or the other, but the balance changes. That balance changed tonight.
     
    Tonight third baseman Danny Valencia was sent to AAA-Rochester and starting pitcher Francisco Liriano was sent to the bullpen. I like both moves, because I agree with the change in focus.
     
    I don’t know if Valencia is ever going to be a competent starting third baseman in the majors. Nobody does. But I sure used to think so. This move isn’t a punishment – it’s a release. Valencia is hitting .198, 50 points lower than last year, which was 50 points lower than 2010. As bad as that is, that’s not the most alarming of his statistics. He’s also struck out 23 times in 96 AB – and walked just twice.
     
    I don’t know what he needs, but he isn’t finding it here. I won’t argue with those suggesting that it’s foolish for a club to invest time in a 27-year-old’s career in AAA. But at this point, one needs to try things. Maybe AAA might reestablish Valencia’s confidence. With literally zero third base options in the Twins pipeline until at least 2014, why not try it?
     
    Which is exactly the philosophy for the other big move. Liriano is moved to the bullpen to try and regain some …. well, name it what you will. Confidence? Mojo? Momentum? Or, if you're especially cynical: Equity? They all work. The Twins and Liriano have tried everything else, and short of demoting him (which I suspect he and his agent would resist) this is the last option.
     
    If you’re of the opinion that Liriano needs to be traded for something valuable, I gotta think you like this move. Maybe Liriano can build some value. A decent reliever is valuable at the trade deadline. Even more so if he’s a southpaw. His value certainly can’t decrease.
     
    As for the rest – meh. Matt Maloney was the odd man out with another lefty moving to the bullpen. That's unlucky for him. I like Darin Mastoianni as a infield/outfield utility guy, though his infield coverage is limited. One can argue whether he’s the best fit, but I’m getting weary of sweating where deck chairs should be moved. PJ Walters must have had the right mix of control, BABIP and veterany goodness to make him the default pick for the open rotation spot. That's not the way I would go, but I’m not nearly as close to this situation, and it's close to a tie. Whatever.
     
    The bad news is that these look more and more like the moves of a last place team looking to the future. The good news is that is probably the correct philosophy to embrace. The focus is changing from the team to the individuals, and for both of these individuals, the change in focus looks to be wise.
  23. John Bonnes
    Brian Dozier turns 25 next Tuesday.
     
    That’s not young for a prospect. This spring he barely made the cut of Baseball America’s top 10 Twins prospects. Above him on that list were Chris Parmelee (who is hitting .203), Liam Hendriks (who is being demoted to AAA-Rochester) and Joe Benson (who was demoted yesterday to AA-New Britain yesterday). He has never hit even double-digits home runs in his minor league career. Prior to this year, he was never a fulltime shortstop in the minors.
     
    Anticipation, especially prolonged anticipation, can really skew expectations. Dozier has been talked about since the middle of last year by manager Ron Gardenhire. At the time, Gardenhire was also desperate for anything resembling a competent middle infielder. If you’re especially optimistic about Dozier’s debut this week, that prolonged anticipation is likely the cause, more so than any promise he’s shown in the minor leagues. Along with his other challenges, he will likely be dealing with inflated expectations.
     
    But there may be a bigger challenge. Dozier is likely being rushed. After spending three years navigating through rookie ball, A-ball and AA-ball, he’s had all of a month at AAA. He hasn’t posted particularly impressive numbers at that level: .276 average, one home run and two stolen bases, though he’s shown good control of the strike zone. And it’s not like he’s caught fire recently – he’s hit about .200 over the last several weeks after a hot start.
     
    Finally, promoting Dozier now is an odd move financially. Major League clubs will often wait until the first couple of weeks in June to promote a prospect so he doesn’t reach arbitration a year early as a “Super 2”. What does that mean? The short answer is that if Dozier succeeds as a starting shortstop, the Twins will need to pay him a million dollars extra or more per year from 2015 through 2018, just so they could call him up a few weeks early this year.
     
    So why now?
     
    Initially, the answer seems obvious: in a lost season, why not play the youngsters? But if that’s the philosophy, then why is Liam Hendriks being sent back to Rochester? Why can’t Trevor Plouffe find his way into the lineup? And why not give Dozier another four weeks in Rochester to regain his stroke and lower his future compensation?
     
    Instead, the answer seems to be the opposite. Dozier is coming up because things are getting desperate. He’s a lottery ticket, or maybe a more apt analogy would be that he’s a Christmas present that the manager (and maybe the organization) is anxious to open.
     
    That’s fun, but it’s worth noting just how often that has backfired on the Twins in the last year. The fast-rising Hendriks made all of nine pitching starts in AAA, didn’t have much success and then struggled in the majors until he was demoted again. Ben Revere spent just a few weeks in AAA where he had trouble getting on base, did the same in extended time in the majors, and is back in Rochester. Chris Parmelee, after a strong September and spring training, skipped Rochester entirely and now has 20 strikeouts and four walks.
     
    One might think that with that recent track record, an organization might be a little more conservative in their callups. Instead, the Twins are rushing a mid-level prospect to the majors to help save the season. I hope they (and Dozier) enjoy the moment. But it would sure be nice if this present wasn’t returned.
  24. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about Justin Morneau's latest injury, Brian Dozier's arrival, swapping Clete Thomas for Erik Komatsu, giving Scott Diamond a chance in place of Liam Hendriks, their new PickPointz game, Ron Gardenhire's job security, bad news for Danny Valencia and Alexi Casilla, answering questions submitted by listeners via Twitter, and the latest from the minor leagues with special guest Seth Stohs. Here are:
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes (where you can listen, rate and subscribe).

  25. John Bonnes
    Even prior to tonight’s shellacking, the Twins collective ERA sits at 5.59, last in the major leagues. On the Gleeman and the Geek show last week, I asked “Can a team that ranks towards the bottom of the league in pitching even pretend to be competitive?” It turns out they can.
     
    Since 2000, there have been five teams that made the playoffs even though they ranked in the bottom third of the league in ERA. One of them was the Twins. In 2009, after a tense game 163 versus the Tigers, the Twins snuck into the playoffs with the 23rd best ERA in the major leagues. That same year, the Angels won their division (and their first round playoff series) with the 21st best ERA.
     
    The same thing happened in 2005 when both the Red Sox and Yankees make the postseason while ranking 24th and 22nd overall. Finally, the Phillies first trip to the playoffs in a decade (and the unofficial start of their current dominance) started in 2007, when they sported the 23rd best ERA. That’s a long ways from Halladay, Lee and Hamels.
    None of those teams made it to the World Series. But two World Series winner since 2000 had an ERA that ranked as low as 16th – the 2000 New York Yankees and the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. In fact, the worse staff ERA has beaten the better staff ERA for the championship 8 of the last 12 years.
     
    Last year was especially lackluster. Only one team – the top-ranked Phillies, had an ERA better than eighth overall. The other seven teams all fell between #8 (Tampa Bay) and #18 (Detroit).
     
    More good news for the Twins is that there isn’t a lot of pitching firepower in their division. The White Sox are off to a fast start because their staff ranks 9th overall. But after that, there isn’t an AL Central team that ranks higher than 21st, who is Cleveland. Detroit (23rd) and Kansas City (27th) are floundering, too.
     
    The Twins don’t necessarily need a miracle on their pitching staff to compete this year. They just need to not completely suck. That’s a pretty low bar to set, but it might be high enough to make this season entertaining. It also may be unreachable.
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