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John Bonnes

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Blog Entries posted by John Bonnes

  1. John Bonnes
    This weekend is the unofficial start of the Hot Stove Season, because this weekend the MLB General Managers are having their annual offseason meetings in Indian Wells, California. It's not the more hyped "Winter Meetings" that take place next month, but it's still 30 GMs and their assistants, all in the same place, and rumor-mongering galore. Irresponsible, glorious, rumor-mongering.
     
    Twins fans have more reason than most to pay attention. Terry Ryan indicated in his TwinsCentric interview that he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, just as he was last year. Also, it was at these meetings in 2003 that he laid the groundwork for arguably his greatest trade, swapping AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser.
     
    This year, he's not the only one looking to deal. There have been several reports of teams looking to make trades, and in the best possible twist, many have involved starting pitching. Let's roll through a few of them of special interest to Twins fans.
     
    The Devil Rays
    The Rays still are seeking a new their stadium, which means they're still hampered by payroll. Unfortunately some of their starting pitchers are getting a expensive. Even more eyebrow-raising: they are about to lose their center fielder to free agency, and don't have a great replacement. The names that have come up the most are:
     
    James Shields
    Shields has been #1 starter on the Rays, which means he was the anchor to the team with the best starting pitching ERA in the American League last year. He's a 200 IP horse who consistently posts a sub-4 ERA and a strikeout rate that suggests he won't decline any time soon. He'll cost $21M over the next two years, but if you subtract Span’s salary, that’ only about $11 million. There has (justly) been a TON of discussion about the Twins acquiring him, especially after it was reported the Twins inquired about him. Here are the details and discussion.
     
    Jeremy Hellickson
    He's not the pedigree of Shields, but he's no slouch either; he was good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011. That also means he's still very cheap and will be under team control for the next four years. Nick wrote about the pros and cons of signing him, and it generated a lot of discussion about what fans could expect.
     
    Wade Davis
    Like a dozen other guys, he was covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook:
     
     


    Playing for a pitching-rich team like the Rays often means that a solid talent like Wade Davis is occasionally the odd man out of the rotation. A former Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, Davis’s spot was usurped by superior talent in Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, pushing him to the bullpen.
     
    This was not necessarily a bad move as Davis, similar to the transition Glen Perkins made from starter to reliever, significantly ratcheted up his strikeout rate (from 15% as a starter to 31% as a reliever). His fastball missed a ton more bats and his breaking stuff (a curve and slider) were much more effective in small doses.
     
    The Rays have him signed through 2017 at a reasonable amount but his salary will begin to increase steadily. Tampa’s savvy front office will likely want to trade him this offseason while his value is at an all-time high.
     
    The Atlanta Braves
    The Braves are loaded with young pitching, and we previously talked about how their GM is focusing on finding an affordable center fielder. But yesterday, Dave O'Brien, the Braves beat writer, tweeted that the Braves were also sniffing around Josh Willingham.
     
    There are at least 8 young pitchers the Braves could offer, ranging from nearly worthless to likely untouchable. We walked through them in this discussion, along with who is likely and not likely with Braves writer Ben Chase. If you're looking for a name or two to tuck away, try these: Randall Delgado and Mike Minor.
     
    The Arizona Diamondbacks
    The GM Meetings produced a bit of a bombshell when it was revealed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would consider moving starting pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft, and thrived in his first full year, striking out 157 in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He may be a little strong-willed, and he certainly isn't a fan of President Obama, but his talent is undeniable.
     
    Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks biggest needs are in their infield, but they did just trade away their center fielder. Currently the plan is to rely on a couple of youngsters to hold down that spot, but there is certainly an opportunity there. Otherwise (or more likely, in addition), some Twins farm prospects could be involved. Needless to say, all kinds of ideas are being kicked around surrounding this rumor.
     
    It should be a fun weekend to track this stuff, and it's not unlikely that this weekends rumors will lead to next week's trade. We'll stay on top of the best of the best with some thoughtful unpacking of the possibilities over at Twins Daily. So stay tuned, if you're feeling a little antsy. I know I am.
  2. John Bonnes
    We're approaching the time when a long-time Twins player is going to be traded away. It will likely be Denard Span.
     
    In our interview for the 2013 Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan was careful, but stated the obvious. When talking about Chris Parmelee being a regular, Ryan admitted "We're going to try and fit [Chris Parmelee] in there somewhere, without tipping my hand too far."
     
    Fitting Parmelee into the lineup as a regular means playing him at first base or in right field. That means moving one of four regulars: Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Ben Revere or Span. It's likely none are off the table, but Span is the most likely to be moved, not for any one reason, but for lots of little reasons, some of which are contradictory.
     
    He's valuable.
    Center fielders that can get on base, have a little power, occasionally steal and play above average center field don't grow on trees. There is a reason that Span's name has been bandied about by the Nationals and Red at the trade deadline the last two years: he's a commodity. In fact, for those attached to the more advanced sabrmetric stats, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pegged Span as the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year - above Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham.
     
    He's replaceable.
    The Twins find themselves desperately short of pitching and middle infielders from the majors down through the minors. But this organization can sure develop center fielders. Twins fans know that Revere could step into center field for Span right now and probably improve the defense. And one-level below him is toolsy first round pick Aaron Hicks, who is going to be better defensively than either of them, and probably better offensively, too. And Twins fans have also already been introduced to Joe Benson, who can also hold down the position.
     
    He's becoming expensive.
    Span will make over $10M over the next two years of his contract. The Twins have limited funds after two straight years of declining attendance. That is $10M that could (and probably should) be used on pitching.
     
    He's not that expensive.
    There are going to be several free agent center fielders available this year - BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino - but they're all going to cost a pretty penny. A 2 year/$10M commitment to Span is going to look like a bargain comparatively.
     
    There will be openings.
    While the free agents above will be snapped up by the highest bidder, their former teams are going to be looking for replacements. The Rays are going to lose Upton and don't have a great replacement for him; they also have been heavily rumored to be shopping some of their better pitchers, like James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson.
     
    Similarly, the Braves will likely lose Michael Bourn and they also have few centerfielders in their farm system. In our 2013 Offseason Handbook, there’s a whole essay on why it makes sense to trade with the Brave by Ben Chase. In it, he lays out the assets the Braves would consider trading, in order:
     
    "The Braves would probably trade their eight starters in the following order (most likely to least likely): Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen. They've also got Brandon Beachy coming back midseason from Tommy John surgery and Sean Gilmartin knocking on the door in AAA."
     
    Chase admits the last half of that list is off the table for Span, but several of the first couple names are in play, and each would provide an affordable upgrade to the Twins rotation.
     
    Usually, when fans suggest a player should be traded, it's because they don't like him. Span, on the other hand, is well-regarded and maybe even undervalued. But a combination of traits - value, affordability, replacability and opportunity - make him the most likely player to be traded. And with the MLB General Manage meetings happening this weekend, it could happen sooner rather than later.
  4. John Bonnes
    In the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan last week, (the 9-page entirety of which you can find in the 2013 Offseason Handbook), we asked about his confidence in Trevor Plouffe.
     
     
    If the Twins are looking for competition, they had one such candidate this year, but Sean Burroughs became a free agent. Burroughs was an interesting option because he hit left-handed, and the right-handed hitting Plouffe still has a big split (911 OPS vs LHs/ 691 OPS vs RHs) against the more plentiful side of the rubber.
     
    Looking at the Offseason Handbook, there are a few other fairly inexpensive options that might make sense. Eric Chavez put up very good numbers for the Yankees, but the left-handed hitting 34-year-old only had 33 at-bats against southpaws. It’s not clear how affordable he could be, but if he can’t get a job as a platoon player, a spot backing up an unproven guy like Plouffe could be a very nice option.
     
    Most of the other names one would recognize bat right-handed, but each has some other interesting traits. For instance, Brandon Inge used to play catcher. So instead of carrying Drew Butera as a 3rd catcher, Inge could fill in udring an emergency. He had shoulder surgery at the end of the season, but is expected to be recovered by spring training.
     
    Placido Polanco struggled this year, but he was also dealing with a back injury. In the past, the Twins have been rumored to be interested in him and the 37-year-old might be able to occasionally fill in at a middle infield spot. Meanwhile, another 37-year-old is rumored to be retiring, but the always intense Scott Rolen might be an interesting veteran to add to a clubhouse filled with kids.
     
    These aren’t going to be moves that transform the Twins, nor should any of them be used as an excuse to overlook bigger issues. But this might be something to watch late in the offseason, when leftover free agents are searching around, or whenever news of a six-year minor league free agents signing trickles out.
     
    Whoever the Twins sign will hopefully be nothing more than an insurance policy as Plouffe shows he belongs as a full-time starter. Or, like Sam Deduno and PJ Walters, that obscure signing could play a much bigger role than anyone anticipates this winter.
  5. John Bonnes
    The Minnesota Twins add some coaches and drop some players. From Surly Darkness Days, Aaron and John review their beers against thrash metal, break down the changes, wonder what the new coaches mean, debate the relative value of Ron Gardenhire, recap their motorcycle adventure, review the players who have been droppped, collect on old debts, speculate on might fill the 40-man roster spots, wonder if Scott Baker will re-sign and tease the next podcast including an interview with Terry Ryan. Here are:
     
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  6. John Bonnes
    According to the Washington Post, the only legitimately good first baseman on the free agent market, Adam LaRoche, is in talks to re-sign with the Nationals. In the 2013 Offseason Handbook, I think the next best option we found was Carlos Lee, who slugged just .365 (and is 36 years old.) What’s more, there aren’t a lot of good options on the free agent market to move to first base. For instance, Kevin Youkilis is available at third base, but if he can play third base (and it looks like he can) he’ll be signed as a third baseman.
     
    The last couple of years, the market has not been so thin. Last year, of course, was epically good, with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leading the charge. 2010 had Paul Konerko, but also Aubrey Huff, LaRoche, Carlos Pena and Lance Berkman. 2009 was thin, but 2008 had Mark Teixeira leading the class. It’s been years since we had a free agent first baseman sign for less than $6M, but that will almost certainly happen if LaRoche returns to the Nationals.
     
    This presents a unique opportunity to the Twins, if they choose to embrace it.
     
    In our 45-minute interview with Terry Ryan for the Offseason Handbook, he stated that 1B/OF Chris Parmelee will get every opportunity to play every day. While manager Ron Gardenhire says he’s satisfied with Parmelee’s defense in right field, the rest of the organization has shown no such endorsement. Indeed, in AAA-Rochester this year, he didn’t play a single game there.
     
    Moving incumbent Justin Morneau would not only make space for Parmelee, but free up $14 million to purchase starting pitching in a free agent market thick with it. Even if the Twins received nothing in return, that’s enough money to sign any starter except Zach Greinke. Ask yourself, would you trade Morneau for Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, or Anibal Sanchez? If you would, it makes sense to trade away Morneau for nothing more than a bag of bricks.
     
    Fortunately, for the Twins, that might not be necessary. There are not shortage of teams that struggled mightily at first base last year. SEVEN teams had an OPS lower less than 700 last year, and even the Rangers first basemen hit just .251/.301/.399. For a team struggling to fill major needs on a lower budget, the thin first base market is a godsend. If the Twins can find the will, there is almost certainly a way to bounce back quickly.
  8. John Bonnes
    The Twins cleared eight players from their 40-man roster yesterday in moves that affected suspects, prospects and Matt Capps. Because there were actually forty-three players on the 40-man roster, the moves left five spots open which will be filled throughout the offseason by free agents and other new players as well as Twins prospects that the organization wants to protect.
     
    Of the eight, the biggest name was former closer Capps, who was acquired by the Twins by trade in 2012 and has signed two consecutive contracts with the Twins. The Twins had a $6 million option (with a $250,000 buyout) on Capps for next year, but he had been hurt for most of this last season, hurting his chances of making anywhere near that money on the free agent market.
     
    Capps release does suggest that the Twins aren’t currently talking with him about re-signing him yet again. They have a similar option on pitcher Scott Baker which they are also assuredly going to decline, but they did not do so yesterday, likely because they are in talks to re-sign him according to Terry Ryan.
     
    Of the other seven players released only one did not ever make it to the majors – relief prospect Carlos Gutierrez, who was claimed by the Chicago Cubs. Gutierrez was a first-round pick by the Twins in 2008, but stalled out in AAA and eventually underwent season-ending shoulder surgery this July. It is not clear when he’ll be able to pitch again.
     
    The cuts included five other pitchers:
     

    Esmerling Vasquez is a somewhat wild reliever who was converted to a starter midway through the year in Rochester. The 28-year-old had good success in that role but struggled with his control in a September promotion to the Twins.
    PJ Walters was a 27-year-old starter had spent time with the Cardinals and Blue Jays prior to this season. He had success in his initial few outings, but eventually was sidelined with a shoulder injury. He also struggled this September when he returned.
    Kyle Waldrop is also a first round pick by the Twins, but underwent shoulder surgery in 2008. He has since become a pitcher who lives and dies by getting ground balls. He appeared in 17 games with the Twins this season, all of them in relief.
    Jeff Manship bounced back from a injury-plagued 2011 to stay mostly healthy this year, but the 2.91 ERA he posted in Rochester didn’t translate to the majors. His threw relief in 12 games, posting a 7.89 ERA.
    Finally, Luis Perdomo joined the Twins last offseason from the Padres organization. He’s traditionally struggled with his control, but made progress in Rochester only to see that progress disappear in the majors. He appeared in 15 games, pitching seventeen innings and walking 12.

     
    The only batter trimmed was outfielder Matt Carson, who had been a bit of a surprise when he was called up to the majors in late August. The 31-year-old outfielder received 66 at-bats, hitting .211 with just one extra-base hit.
     
    While these represent moves represent the lion’s share of 40-man roster moves, more can be expected. When Carl Pavano declares free agency within the first couple of days of the World Series, he will be dropped. Some arbitration decisions could lead to more openings. And if Scott Baker and the Twins fail to each an agreement, that would result in another opening.
     

    ~~~


     
    If you’re interested in some of the Twins prospects that may fill some of these spots, Seth Stohs has an essay in the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook that list the top candidates likely to be rewarded a spot. It is shipping now at a 30% discount until the end of the World Series.
  9. John Bonnes
    Yesterday, teams looking for free agent starting pitching this offseason were dealt a minor blow by the Texas Rangers. Colby Lewis, the solid starting pitcher of the Rangers, re-signed with them at the bargain price of $2 million plus incentives.
     
    If that sounds shrewd, it’s continuing a trend. Lewis has been outpacing the relatively meager sums the Rangers have been paying him since they signed him when he returned from Japan. In the three years since, he has thrown 500 innings for them with a 3.93 ERA. He was scheduled to be a free agent in a couple of months, his chance to make really big money.
     
    That changed back in July. Lewis came out of game with pain in his forearm. A few days later he was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon which was going to cause him to miss the rest of the season. While he should be OK to begin next season, it was unlikely any team was going to offer him the big multi-year deal his recent performance deserved. They would want a shorter, incentive-laden deal to make sure they weren’t burned. But Texas beat them to that punch, signing Lewis to a $2M deal with the chance to make $4M in incentives.
     
    The Twins could face a similar opportunity with one of their own pitchers. Scott Baker is coming back from Tommy John surgery he had in April. He might be ready for the beginning of the year, or soon thereafter, though he’ll likely face an inning limit at some point next year. This offseason, he’ll also be looking for a deal like Lewis was – short, incentive-based, and looking to rebuild interest in his considerable talent.
     
    The Twins could offer him that right now, a month before any other team can consider it. A deal similar to that signed by Lewis would keep Baker in the organization during his rehab, give the Twins some cost certainty about the price of their rotation and cross off one more spot they need to fill on the free agent market.
     
    However, a Twins-Baker contract would need one additional aspect: a team option on 2014. It could be a fairly expensive option – perhaps $8M – so both Baker and the team feel like they would reap the rewards of a successful recovery. I don’t know if either side is exploring this kind of a deal, but it makes a lot of sense to a pitcher that needs a team and a team that needs pitching.
  10. John Bonnes
    In our TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, we’re including a transcript from a 45-minute meeting "State of the Twins" interview with Terry Ryan. As you can imagine, an 8000-word interview covers a lot of topics, including:
     

    the strengths of the new coaching staff,
    Joe Mauer’s future at catcher,
    additional offseason priorities beyond starting pitching,
    how Twins approach waiver wire or minor league free agents,
    thoughts on the state of the Twins minor leagues,
    his evaluation of the Twins middle infield,
    whether Trevor Plouffe can stay at third base,
    how the Twins will fit Chris Parmelee into the lineup,
    and of course how the Twins will try to fix their starting rotation.

     
    One encouraging note, at least in my opinion, is that Ryan seems to be open to adding free agent pitchers who are a few cuts above Jason Marquis, who the Twins signed to a one-year, $3M.
     
    TWINSCENTRIC: As you look at the pitchers who are likely to become free agents or are scheduled to be free agents, do you think it’s a deep free agency class?
    TERRY RYAN: Thin.
    TWINSCENTRIC: You think it’s thin?
    TERRY RYAN: Sure. You tell me who you’re thinking about. I can’t comment on who is out there. There’s a few guys out there who are pretty darn good.
    TWINSCENTRIC: Are you likely to be chasing some players who are pretty darn good?
    TERRY RYAN: We better.
    TWINSCENTRIC: So you’re looking to add a top of the rotation, maybe not a #1 guy, but maybe a #2 guy or a top half of the rotation?
    TERRY RYAN: We’ll see. We’ll figure out how many years he’s looking for and how many dollars they want to get.
    TWINSCENTRIC: Are you willing to give multi-year deals to pitchers?
    TERRY RYAN: You aren’t going to get a pitcher unless you give a multi-year deal.
     
    So who qualifies as a “pretty darn good” pitcher? Despite Ryan’s characterization of the market as thin, there are no shortage of candidate that could be viewed as an asset to a rotation. Beyond ace Zach Greinke, the following will all likely get a contract in excess of $20 million dollars this offseason: Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster, Dan Haren, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse. Another half dozen could get contracts in excess of $10 million: Hideki Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, Hisashi Iwakuma, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jeremy Guthrie and Shaun Marcum. That’s fourteen pitchers, most of whom would raise the eyebrows of even the most skeptical Twins fan.
     
    However, Ryan was also hesitant to commit to a payroll number and again emphasized that the Twins rotation woes won’t be solved solely through free agency. Does this mean the Twins may only have the funds to make one major signing and look to fill the other spots via other means?
     
    We likely won’t need to wait too long to find out. Ryan hinted that he plans to be aggressive with players that they think are going to be a good fit. That is consistent with the Twins approach last offseason, when players like Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll were signed even though there were still players in higher demand available.
     

    ~~~


     
    After this last season, don't you deserve to enjoy the offseason?
     
    The full interview (as well as profiles of all the above pitchers) will be available in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, which comes out tomorrow. You can still get it at its presale discount price through the World Series. And if you’re still on the fence, you can download a sample here.
  12. John Bonnes
    After our weekly podcast, Aaron & I are going to try doing a short video that recaps the podcast and gets into other silliness.
     
    [video=youtube;O6ib6uwW63M]
     
    Immediately following episode 63, Aaron evaluates the podcast & comments further on the state of the Twins farm system while John mocks him from behind the iPhone's blinding light.
     
    Make sure to tune in next week, when we brave the new frontier of landscape mode.
  13. John Bonnes
    I’m having trouble getting into the second round of the playoffs. I don’t really want either the Yankees or the Tigers to make the World Series, which means I can’t even root for the American League. The official team of The Voice Of Reason™ - the Phillies – is also out for the first time in years. But part of it is because I’m ready for the next act.
     
    The offseason.
     
    Oddly, I don’t think I’ve looked forward to an offseason this much in years. For starters, it’ll be nice to see what a Terry Ryan can do when he’s in charge right from the beginning. Also, there is at least a 50-50 chance that we see a long-time Twin player traded. We get to (hopefully) watch a rotation be built via the deepest free agent starting pitching market in several years. There is even a Twins prospect already strutting his stuff in the Arizona Fall League.
     
    (I’ll admit, there are also some personal reasons I’m excited for the offseason too. At the top of the list is Twins Daily. Being able to count on a Twins story every day, and being able to jump read and discuss all the rumors and implications of trades and signings is going to be awesome. Second is Gleeman and the Geek. I really enjoyed getting together with Aaron Gleeman on a weekly basis, throw back some beers and talk baseball for a few hours.)
     
    So let’s look ahead to what we can expect….
     
     

    October 24th – The release of the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. (Also, the 1st game of the World Series.)
    The End of the World Series – Eligible players can file to become free agents. (Also, when the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook 30% discount expires.)
    Sixth day after the World Series – Free agent market opens. Teams can sign free agents.
    December 3-6 – Baseball’s Winter Meetings, which means plenty of trade talk.
    December 6 – Rule 5 Draft
    January 25-27 – Twins Fest

     
    If this year is anything like last year, expect Terry Ryan to move fairly quickly. Last year he had almost everything wrapped up by Christmas, signing…
     
     

    Jamey Carroll on November 16th
    Ryan Doumit on November 23rd
    Matt Capps on December 6th
    Josh Willingham on December 15th
    Jason Marquis on December 22nd
    Joel Zumaya on January 18th

     
    There is a man after my own heart. Not only does he make moves fast, but he has the decency to do so on a weekly basis so I can spread them out over winter’s worth of podcasts.
  15. John Bonnes
    “If I want to write about baseball, what should I do?”
     
    It isn’t uncommon that I’m asked this question by some well-meaning younger person who is trying to find their spot in what feels like a crowded world. Bluntly, but as tenderly as I can, I usually say:
     
    “Write. Preferably, about baseball.”
     
    I’m blunt, because there are so many ways to write about baseball. Start a blog. (If you want an instant Twins audience, you can used the one you have here.) Or write an email to friends. Or use a forum thread as a chance to research and write about a topic. The barriers for entry have disappeared.
     
    But I also respond with tenderness because I suspect that most of the people that ask me this question will not write about baseball. If they wanted to write about baseball, they would already be writing about baseball. What they’re really asking is “If I think I might want TO BE PAID to write about baseball, what should I do?”
     
    The answer is the same. In fact, the answer is the same if you’re wondering which of those two questions you’re really asking. Just write, preferably every day, about whatever you want, and you’ll figure it out.
     
    If you do that, you’re already a baseball writer, and now you just need to figure out how to get paid. You’ll also figure out that there is more to writing about baseball than writing about baseball. Such as marketing yourself, finding an audience, generating ideas and asking uncomfortable questions.
     
    If you don’t like it, then you were interested in drawing a paycheck, but you didn’t want to write about baseball. Which is fine. Try again. You’ll likely find something you like better and get paid to do that.
     
    Not every job is that cut and dry. I make my living as a business systems analyst and I’m happy being one. I love problem solving. I like figuring things out and teaching others what I’ve figured out. I like building things that people can use. All of these are aspects of being a business systems analyst, but I don’t know that I would do it every day just because I liked it. The regular hours and solid paycheck have plenty to do with why it’s my trade.
     
    But writing about baseball is that cut and dry, and coaching is like that too. The litmus test that both pass is “Would a lot of people do it for nearly free?” If so, then you had better have enough real passion to do before you become.
     
    This is why I’m always so puzzled when Paul Molitor’s name comes up as a possible assistant coach for the Minnesota Twins. Molitor last served as a full year coach for a team back in 2001, when he was Tom Kelly’s bench coach. He served in that capacity for three years. Since then, he’s had other jobs, mostly roving around the minor leagues as a special instructor, but he hasn’t managed a minor league team. I can’t recall him even being an assistant coach for a Twins minor league affiliate.
     
    That seems odd for someone who wants to be a baseball manager. Like writing, if someone wants to manage a baseball team, they should manage a baseball team. Mike Redmond, for example, has been managing baseball teams (and succeeding) at High-A and Low-A the last two years. Not surprisingly, he’s being mentioned as an option if (or more likely, when) the Marlins dismiss Ozzie Guillen. If you remember Matt LeCroy, he’s managing too, for the AA-Harrisburg Senators, a Nationals affiliate. That’s also someone who is doing what they want to be.
     
    Just so I'm clear - I'm not knocking Molitor. I have no doubt that if he wanted to be a coach, there are all kinds of teams and affiliates that would welcome him with open arms. I'm knocking us for inserting his name in the discussion when there isn't much evidence that is what he wants to do.
     
    To their credit, the Twins seem to share this philosophy. The three rumored new assistant coaches, Tom Brunansky, Bobby Cuellar and Gene Glynn, would join the Twins after coaching AAA-Rochester last year. Each has shown they know how to handle the role for which they are rumored to be hired.
     
    Because they’re already doing it.
  16. John Bonnes
    The Minnesota Twins blow up their coaching staff, so Seth Stohs joins Aaron and John to talk about Ron Gardenhire's leash, the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, what the shopping plans are for free agent pitching, casting ballots for team MVP, why no one seems to want Paul Molitor, the futures of Trevor Plouffe and Liam Hendriks, how to lessen the upcoming outfield logjam, and why long podcasts are the best podcasts. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  17. John Bonnes
    Vegas picked the White Sox to finish fourth in the AL Central this year, pegging them to win about 74.5 games. Chicago's season essentially ended last night when the Tigers clinched the division, but that means the Pale Hose' playoff hopes lasted until October, about four (five?) months longer than the Twins. They also made anyone who bet the “under” in Vegas look like a fool, exceeding Vegas preseason estimate by 10 games and counting.
     
    I am one of those fools. In our Gleeman and the Geek podcast, I predicted a miserable season on Chicago’s south side. They had won 79 games in 2011, but with a run differential that looked worse than that. And then they lost Mark Buehrle to the Marlins and traded away slugger Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos. They had also lost manager Carlos Guillen, for better or worse.
     
    But the White Sox responded by getting career (or at least bouncback) years from several suspect veterans. Pitcher Jake Peavy, who had spent most of the last few years injured, led the team in innings. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were much maligned last year when they were getting paid $24M to knock home just 84 RBI. This year they exceeded that number by 100. Kevin Youkilis came over from the Red Sox to fill a serious gap at third and AJ Pierzynski slugged a career high 27 home runs.
     
    However, none of those guys is less than 31 years old and several of them are going to be free agents. The White Sox had a fun year, but they really only had two younger players show they could contribute long-term. Pitcher Chris Sale became the staff ace while showing he could handle a starting pitcher’s workload. And center fielder Alejandro De Aza (who isn’t really young at 28 years old) posted very respectable numbers for a leadoff hitter and center fielder.
     
    Which means that this spring, Chicago is likely going to be wrestling with similar questions as there were last spring. Can they trust Rios and Dunn? How will eat Peavy’s innings? Who will play third base? Is Tyler Flowers ready to catch full time? And if things go right, will they still be a good, but not great, team that just misses the playoffs?
     
    Meanwhile, the Twins must decide this offseason just how jealous they are of the Sox success this year – because that might just be within reach. The Twins could grab two or three veteran arms and be a .500 club this summer. With a few breaks (which might include some regression from the Sox) they could challenge for the 2013 AL Central last into September. Like the Sox, it’s hard to imagine them winning 90 games, but meaningful baseball would be a welcome change after two years of futility.
     
    But if they did that, next offseason they would likely be back in a similar position as the Sox. They would be looking at losing Justin Morneau. They would have an aging roster. The departure of Denard Span and Josh Willingham would be a year away. They would have kept their team together and maybe missed the chance to add some pitching or middle infield prospects. They would have had success, shown they could fill some holes, maybe even given minor league talent time to work it’s way up the farm system, but they would still not have a widespread and deep foundation of a great team. They would still be missing that young and cheap core.
     
    Would that be enough?
  20. John Bonnes
    Aaron sips a pink libation. John begs their listeners to take a quick survery for recruiting sponsors. Then they chat about whether Sam Deduno belong, whether the Twins can and should re-sign Scott Baker, how one characterizes the starting pitching market, Liam Hendriks first "W," the MLB television deal and what it means for the Twins payroll, the switch from Beloit to Cedar Rapids, and honors bestowed by Baseball America on some Twins prospects. Then they answer mailbag about the Minnesota Twins and compare blogging to podcasting.
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  21. John Bonnes
    I may have exaggerated a little. I know – shocking for a blogger.
     
    For months I’ve been saying that this free agent class of pitchers is almost historically deep. That might be a little strong, unless you think history only goes back as far as 2007. Because based on the dollars that were thrown around, 2006-2007 was an unbelievably lucrative free agent starting pitching market – for the players. It didn’t work out nearly as well for the owners.
     
    The top two contracts given out that year were unmitigated disasters. San Francisco is still trying to get out from under the $126M contract they gave Barry Zito while the Red Sox are finally finished with the $100+M they paid to get Daisuke Matsuzaka. Those two contracts are legendarily bad, and that’s NOT an exaggeration.
     
    But the next two were almost equally dismal. The Royals invested $55M in Gil Meche, though he saved them some of that when he voluntarily retired only four years into the deal. The next biggest deal went to Jason Schmidt, who made $47M and pitched only 43.1 innings. (Read that last sentence again.) And it didn’t stop there. The majority of the pitchers who signed for big money struggled and there were a lot of them: nine pitchers signed guaranteed deals for at least $20M.
     
    The teams may have figured out something since then. In the five years since, only eleven pitchers have reached that $20M level. No class since has had more than three pitchers reach that plateau. In fact, no class has had more than seven pitchers even get $10 million contracts.
     
    Or it could be that the pitchers since just haven’t been that good. For instance, last year was the year those seven pitchers got at least $10M. The market had three big names – CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish and Mark Buehrle. But beyond them, there wasn’t much. Hiroki Kuroda got a one-year, $11M deal from Yankees. Three others got $10+ million contracts, but they were all for multiple years, so the fifth, sixth and seventh biggest deals went to Aaron Harang ($6M/year), Chris Capuano ($5M/year) and Wei-Yin Chen ($3.8M/year).
     
    Did you just say “Who?” Exactly. If you’re looking for a thin market for starting pitching, the last five years qualify.
     
    This year is different. There are as many as 11 pitchers who could garner a $20M offer from a team. In the first draft of TwinsCentric’s Offseason GM Handbook (which you’ll be able to order soon, I promise), I count six that are virtually locks to make that money There are five more that might, and each will almost certainly get at least $10 million guaranteed. That’s deeper than any class since 2006.
     
    But it’s deeper still than that. Because after those guys there are another dozen pitchers who qualify as “innings eaters” or “intriguing gambles” which are the domains in which the Twins are most likely to dabble. Scott Baker belongs in the latter category and ranks 22nd overall on our list. By comparison, there were only 18 starting pitchers last year that signed major league contracts – and that was the most since 2006-2007.
     
    So, yes, I might have exaggerated a little in the past, so I’ll try and be a little more precise. (John Dyer-Bennett would have wanted it that way.) Right now, this year’s free agent starting pitching class looks to be the best group we have seen in at least five years. It is also flush with mid-level talent, going at least 20 to 25 players deep. And I’ll go a step further.
     
    If the Twins were trying to time find an offseason where average starting pitching would be available at a discount, they couldn’t have done a much better job. (Provided they actually spend some money.)
  22. John Bonnes
    Aaron and John talk about Aaron's "healthy" new look, discuss next year's middle infield, tell listeners how they can get a free audiobook, and review the expected free agent starting pitchers and give Aaron's choices, John's choices, and the Twins probable choices. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

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