John Bonnes

Seth, did you hear about the arm problems he references? Lots of talk about staying healthy. I also found this interesting: "I might be a little too aggressive in 0-2 counts but that’s what they’ve been telling me to be. And I’m going to stick with that." Does that mean expand the zone a little? Or keep swinging out of his shoes?

To anyone reading this who hasn't heard, we're now meeting folks at Old Chicago in Roseville at 7:30.

If they were going to spend $7M on Oswalt, they would have spent $4.5M on Cordero. My best guess is that the Twins made Oswalt an open offer once upon a time but that is was pulled back when Marquis signed. And even if the Twins really do still have that offer on the table, there is no way it's the high offer at this point.

I think for tomorrow, I might do a quick and dirty analysis of how much better Fielder can expect to be over VMart, especially given the defensive manipulations the Tigers are threatening. And as for #4, I'll say this: the Tigers have essentially adopted a "stars & scrubs" approach, and if a couple of those stars go down DURING the season, their depth is pretty questionable. For instance, if Verlander isn't able to throw 250 innings this year, that rotation could get thin in a hurry.

The Rockies also threw in $1.25M million dollars to cover Slowey's salary. That's the difference in the prospects.

I could do something on Saturday. JJ's is fine with me. What time? Nick? Parker?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?144-Hot-Stove-Banquet-Invitation

Hot Stove League Banquet It ain't fancy. It is fun. If you're looking to get together for a lot of irreverent and fun Twins talk, I'd invite you to attend the 4th Annual LAST Hot Stove League Banquet and Charity Auction next Friday night. It's not the fourth annual - it's the fourth annual LAST, because this has been going on for decades now and they keep trying to stop doing it. Just click on the image below for more information. [ATTACH=CONFIG]65[/ATTACH] You'll likely see both The Voice of Reason and I there and we'll probably be taking the party someplace else immediately afterwards. I hope you can make it.

Seth, you need to post this on your blog and then tweet immediately: "Gardenhire RETIRES!" with a link.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]61[/ATTACH] So far, the Twins have invested $99M in their 2012 team. Whether you think they'll be competitive or not isn't the point. (I do.) Whether you think they should have cut payroll or not isn’t the point. (I don't.) The point is this: the Twins have invested $99M in their 2012 team. Now they need to spend a tiny fraction of that to insure it. You would think that would be obvious to the Twins, who have traditionally been a risk-adverse organization, especially under Terry Ryan. They demonstrated that again this offseason. They could've waited to sign their free agents, gambling that the market would go down and they wouldn't be left without competent players. Instead, they reversed course from the last few seasons, aggressively signing almost their entire roster before Christmas. But they also have a tradition of being extremely tied to a budget, and it appears they've hit it. But to stop now, when the free agent market is so affordable and they still have two enormous risks on the roster would be the definition of pennywise and pound-foolish. They created the first of these risks earlier this week when they signed Joel Zumaya to a super affordble one-year deal, heavy with incentives. The contract is awesome. Zumaya's health history isn't. Zumaya has failed to stay healthy for the last five consecutive seasons. The question isn't if he'll stay healthy. The question is when he'll break. When he does, the Twins are right back where they were a week ago - without a dependable right-handed arm in their bullpen other than Matt Capps. (Let's let the irony of that last sentence settle in for minute.) Zumaya has the potential to be a great signing or a dubious choice depending entirely on whether the Twins go out and sign someone else. There are a half-dozen competent right-handed relievers on the market, all of whom are likely to cost between one and two million dollars. That's how much it would take to transform the bullpen from “mess” to “average with upside.” The second risk was made clear last week on the MLB Network in an interview with Justin Morneau. "Most days, I wake up I feel pretty good. Usually after I get done, really exert myself, really working out hard after a long day, your brain gets tired and everything gets so worn down. It's not functioning the way it's supposed to be, and you kind of get done with the day and you go, 'Something's not right.' And you end up going home and taking a nap for a couple hours or whatever it is, and you wake up and the headache's still there and you kind of grind through it. But it's been a lot better lately.” “A lot better.” That’s an in interesting phrase. Not “good” or “fine.” Just “better.” Last year the Twins had a backup plan for Morneau: Jim Thome. He wouldn't play first, but manager Ron Gardenhire could move around the lineup and have Thome play designated hitter. He can do the same this year, except that the bats he is going to turn to are Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes. Meanwhile, one of the stories of the free agent market is how many designated hitter are looking for work. Vladamir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez and even Carlos Guillen are available and several of them are going to be available for about the same amount the Twins paid Thome. For $2-4 million, the Twins could pick up two key insurance policies on their #5 hitter and their bullpen. To not do so, to instead roll the dice on two critical areas that already look dubious, is foolhardy. ~~~ If you haven't taken advantage of the special pre-order price for Seth Stoh's Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, time is running out. This isn't an e-book, you can throw this on your bookcase, bring it to games, give it to the Twins fan in your life. Grab it quick to help retain your sanity during these cold snaps. You can order it HERE.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?139-Gleeman-The-Geek-Episode-24-Zumaya-and-Arbitration

FYI - I merged the thread abour Liriano & Perkins signing contract, ostensibly because they're both arbitration settlement, but mostly just to see what happens. :-)

...you just might get it. I just saw the Mark Teahan was released by the Jays. Does he not sound EXACTLY like a guy the Twins would target as a bench bat? Ugh. http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120117&content_id=26370924&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor

And now they just lost Victor Martinez?!?!

We probably haven't talked about this enough, but how good does the decision to NOT offer him a long-term deal last offseason look now?

Spent or no, the point is that if the Twins don't sign someone, they're trotting out some combination of Revere-Plouffe-Hughes in TWO of the lineup spots AND lose their #5 hitter. What's more, there really isn't a left-handed bat on the bench. Getting a non-fielding bat isnt' going to be that expensive, especially in this market. It's pennywise and poundfoolish to not get a little insurance on this season, especially when the best other solution seems to be rushing Parmelee.

I gotta think that if the Twins had an offer out to Oswalt (and they very well might have) it was pulled back by now. It seems like that's how Ryan has proceeded this offseason - offer affordable deals to free agents and wait to see which one accepted. I don't double they did that with Oswalt, but I can't believe that's still out there, unless the payroll is a lot higher than we thought it was. (Or unless they have identified a current Twin whose salary they think they can dump.) And back to Parker's original quote - that sure sound like the door is mostly closed.