John Bonnes

In their first official Grapefruit League game, the Twins defeated the Rays 7-3 this afternoon in Fort Myers. Manager Ron Gardenhire trotted out a lineup heavy on expected starting position players, but it was the backups who had the biggest impact, tallying three runs in the 6th inning to give the Twins a lead they would not relenquish. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] [attachment=4318:184.attach] Carl Pavano started the game, giving up a 2-run home run in the first inning to Matt Joyce. He and Brian Duensing both pitched two innings in a game that featured five other Twins pitchers with major league experience: Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Matt Maloney and Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak gave up the other run the Rays scored and the southpaw Maloney struck out the side in the eighth, albeit facing all left-handed hitters. With plenty of attention being paid to the healthy of Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Justin Morneau, Twins trainers should be happy to hear that they all had a good start to their spring training season. Span had two hits, Mauer drove in the Twins first run and Morneau the second with a two-out opposite-field hit against the Rays shift. That tied the game at 2-2 going into the sixth inning. Then the bench started doing some realy damage. Shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka had two hits, including a warning-track triple. Chris Parmelee also had two hits in his two at-bats, though he later ran into an out by failing to recognize that the runner in front of him had stopped at third base. Catcher Chris Herrmann, outfielder Joe Benson and second baseman Mike Hollimon also contributed RBI. View full article

I was at that game with Nick Nelson, which I think is the first time we had ever really hung out. We were in the right field bleachers and started drinking Red Bull & vodka in the early inning, which I never do. And as the game went on, we felt we needed to continue, because we didn't want to jinx it. So that might be your answer - more Red Bull & vodka for Nick & I.

That is an awesome line. I would love, when the season really starts, to have a forum thread devoted to this topic where we identify the songs and add our comments. I'll admit, this is often a topic among my friends and I in the stands.

Oh, and off the top of my head, I think I'd put both Miller Park, (new) Yankee Stadium, the Skydome and Comiskey as four of the worst five.

I've made it to about 2/3 of the stadiums, so I can't vouch for SafeCo or Pac Bell, both of which I've love to see. #6 - Kauffman - It's unbelievable that such a good stadium was built at that time, but it's that well done. I liked it even more before the remodel. #5 - Dodger Stadium - I expect to see The Rat Pack having martinis behind home plate. Cool vibe. #4 - Fenway - Historic, passionate and a great neighborhood. Wrigley-light. #3 - Camden Yards - In many ways, it is the "new original." Best of new and old, but it's been awhile since I've been there, so this is the one I'm least sure of. #2 - PNC Park - Best new ballpark. Beautiful. Breathtaking views. I'd go and sit there most nights even if there wasn't a game. Maybe the ultimate date park. #1 - Wrigley - On a warm day, with the sun-shining, a breeze in your face and a few clouds slowly approaching, you could believe it was 1920 and you are at what a baseball game should be.

I think The Voice of Reason and I will be making that road trip. I don't have the details yet, but PNC is one of my favorite parks in the majors (maybe 2nd or 3rd), Pittsburgh is a fun city, and I've heard good things about Cincinnati and their ballpark.

Sometimes this site will be ridiculously positive and sometimes it will be ridiculously negative. That's going to happen when people share independent individual opinions. I cannot promise "balanced" for either side and I don't think it's fair to demand balanced. What we work for is personal and intellectual honesty, a brave, respectful and candid discussion and a little fun. If we do that, I think the balance will take care of itself.

Even if you were to eat others brownies we would love to have you.

Let's assume that Parmelee doesn't make the Twins roster and instead starts in Rochester. Then what happens between Aaron Bates and Steve Pearce? I assume neither is sent down to AA? The two are eerily similar. Bates was with the team last year, while Pearce is the newcomer. Any idea what is likely to happen here?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?267-Gleeman-the-Geek-Event-Monday-3-5-6-05-at-The-Wild-Boar

Waddya say we watch us some baseball? Our first chance to see the Twins on TV is this Monday night, so why not celebrate with some Twins fans? Aaron Gleeman and I will be at The Wild Boar on Monday night (3/5 at 6:05) for our weekly podcast and kicking back to watch the Twins. Hopefully, you can join us, bring your questions and help us revel in end of the offseason. We'll see you there!

Waddya say we watch us some baseball? Our first chance to see the Twins on TV is this Monday night, so why not celebrate with some Twins fans? Aaron Gleeman and I will be at The Wild Boar on Monday night (3/5 at 6:05) for our weekly podcast and kicking back to watch the Twins. Hopefully, you can join us, bring your questions and help us revel in end of the offseason. We'll see you there!

Yes. Yes we do.

I heard in today's b-squad game that Gutierrez got hammered so hard that they just ended an inning early.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?254-Gleeman-the-Geek-Episode-30-Morneau-Mailbag

Aaron and John talk about pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, Justin Morneau's discouraging quotes about his health status, Sean Burroughs' odds of making the roster, Aaron's ongoing car saga, John's marriage, and a bunch of mailbag questions. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Aaron and John talk about pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, Justin Morneau's discouraging quotes about his health status, Sean Burroughs' odds of making the roster, Aaron's ongoing car saga, John's marriage, and a bunch of mailbag questions. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

WPA isn't a predictive metric. My point wasn't that we should be comparing WPAs of these guys. My point is that comparing a relievers WAR (which mostly gives a shorthand value of his stats) to his WPA (which shows how useful he was in winning games) shows how significant the inning he worked were. Zumaya worked some very significant innings very well prior to mid-2010. That doesn't mean bringing in a competent reliever wouldn't have also had a significant impact (and WPA).

I'll make one more point that I made back when Zumaya was signed. It's a forced analogy, I'll grant. It's not a bad gamble to buy lotto tickets if the payout is high enough. After enough people have paid in enough money, you can make an argument that spending a $1 on the lotto isn't a bad bet. So it's defensible to spend $10 on some lotto tickets. Hell, in moderation, if you have some extra money and want to spend them on some lotto tickets, go for it. But, if you're down to your last $10, just about out of gas, you spend the $10 the $10 on gas that can get you to work, not on 10 lotto tickets. That was the situation Ryan faced, even if we didn't recognize it. He spent his last money, innings and offseason move on a high-risk, high reward guy, when all he needed was some gas.

First, WAR is a terrible metric with which to measure relievers. It completely ignores the context of the innings in which they work. Late innings in which relievers work are far more important in determining a game. Putting a very good reliever in a critical late-inning role can produce a WPA worth several games, much better than their WAR. Second, the goal of a GM isn't to invest innings or to get a good return on the money spent. Those are means to a greater end, which is winning games. Those other things are nice, but in this case, the goal was to find a pitcher to fill an important role. And it wasn't done, and from the beginning, the chances of it working were negligible, and the dropoff if it didn't work was huge. And this doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't have the philosophy of promoting guys from within. But when that person is not on the roster, then it's the job of the GM to use a different tool as his disposal. Ryan could've signed a lot of guys instead of Zumaya. He didn't. He could've signed a lot of guys AND Zumaya, which would've been even better. He didn't. He rolled the dice, and the loss isn't $400k. The loss is 50 or so critical innings to which the Twins now have no answer.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?250-Terry-Ryan-s-Foolish-Gamble

The TwinsCentric GM Offseason Handbook listed 23 right-handed relievers, sorted in descending order by what we thought they would receive on the open market. The 23rd was Joel Zumaya. He was listed last because of the obvious injury risk he represented. But Zumaya wasn't the 23rd one signed. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan was aggressive, like he had been all offseason, and Zumaya signed relatively early given his status. That signing was almost universally praised because Zumaya has such terrific upside and because the contract was cheap and not guaranteed. It was lauded as the perfect low-risk signing for a team with a limited offseason budget like the Twins. But it was not low risk, and the one person who knew that was Terry Ryan. Ryan knew something that the evaluators and fans did not - Zumaya would be the last reliever the Twins would sign this offseason. He was essentially replacing the departed Joe Nathan. If it didn't work, the backup plan was.... I'm sure I'll hear this week how there are still plenty of backup plans. In terms of quantity, there are. But not in terms of quality. Every one of them is either a member of last year's shaky corps or a waiver or minor-league pickup. We could bring the TwinsCentric crew into spring training camp if we want to add some quantity. But that isn't going to bolster that backup plan. So now the true risk of that move is a lot clearer. When Zumaya's season ended yesterday, the first 21 of the right-handed relievers on TwinsCentric's list already belonged to other major league teams. (By the way, at least a half dozen signed similar low-risk deals as Zumaya's.) Number 22 is Michael Wuertz, a formerly dominant reliever whose velocity has fallen and whose ERA soared to 6.68 last year. He represents a significant risk himself. It's forgivable for evaluators to praise the Zumaya signing - they didn't know what Ryan did. But Ryan knew. And he had to know that a reliever who hadn't finished a season healthy since 2006 was a big risk. So now he will have an extra million dollars left to spend and no relievers to spend it on. It was a foolish gamble from the beginning which has unsurprisingly failed.