John Bonnes

I'll say this for Billy Beane - he does not lack guts. If the A's go south, especially if it's because the offense slackens a bit, people are going to point at this trade. So do they have a ready-made replacement for Cespedes? Because, um, we have a right-handed outfielder with some power.....(who actually has a higher OPS than Cespedes....)

The Orioles were, at one time, hot after Lester. I wonder if this makes them turn their attention to Suzuki.

Part of the reason I think that Willingham is traded is because I think the Twins are going to want to dump that salary. Of course, I supposed they could dump it by just giving him to whoever claims him on waivers, but they there is a good chance they get nothing. I just feel like Ryan isn't going to chance that. He's not exactly a risk-taker.

Betting house Bovada has set 10.5 as the over/under on MLB trades today. Could there be 10 MLB trades and NONE that involved the Twins? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet on it. The rumor mill is working to convince us otherwise. Yesterday Twins Pioneer Press beat reporter tweeted that Josh Willingham appears to be "staying put (for now)." This after hitting a home run against one of the teams that was supposedly interested in him, the Kansas City Royals. His value has apparently been hurt by that severe July slump, though he has bounced back to a .563 slugging percentage in the last two weeks. It appears the Mariners are the likeliest suitor.Meanwhile, the the Cardinals have signed AJ Pierzynski (who someone remains a thorn in the Twins side even when it appears his career may be over) and the Orioles seem to have very limited interest in Kurt Suzuki. But how can a catcher with roughly the same OPS as Buster Posey be undesirable by contending teams? Personally, I'll be surprised if either one is here tomorrow, let alone both. I'm expecting interested GMs get a Liriano-like "put your best offer on the table" call from Ryan at some point today for both, but I'm already surprised that they aren't hotter commodities, so what do I know. Well, whatever any of us know, let's put it in the comments below. If you haven't already registered, it's super easy, and you're going to be part of fantastic community - just ask the 4000 current contributors to it. Ok, community (and Terry Ryan)....ready.....set.....GO! Click here to view the article

Big roster announcements prompt a debate about the Twins making decisions based on spring training performances. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).Download attachment: gleeman-and-the-geek-logo11.jpg Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Nishioka_600_321.jpg The Minnesota Twins release Tsuyoshi Nishioka, contemplate coaching changes, and the John and Aaron review the MLB season via their preseason predictions. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.If you want to chat about the topics, let us know.... Was Nishi a scouting error or a revenue driven?Should the Twins make field staff changes?What surprise AL team should we have predicted? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gray_Jonathan_landscape_US_720.jpg Who IS This Guy? Jonathan Gray is a right-handed college starting pitcher who has rocketed up the charts, becoming one of the two most coveted picks in the draft. Coming into the college season he was a decent but not remarkable prospect, but that was before posting 127 strikeouts (in 110 IP), a 9-2 record and a 1.55 ERA (pre-NCAA tournament). It was also before he unveiled improvements on two outstanding pitches.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The first is an “80” fastball that tops three digits on occasion, as it did last week (102 mph), striking out the last batter of a 129-pitch complete game in the NCAA regionals. Coming into the year, he had never shown that kind of velocity, but this year he worked between 94 and 97 all season. He also shows a “plus” slider that has also improved due to a tweak in the grip (running the middle finger down the right side of the horseshoe) that has increased the velocity and tightened the break. He has also shown a curveball and changeup, though both need to be further developed. Who Could He Be? He’s on track to be a #1 pitcher. But it’s been a short track. Gray might have the most upside of any pitcher in the draft, or at the very least the most of any of the college pitchers. Compared to the other top name, Mark Appel, Gray might have the higher ceiling but has less history on which to base that projection. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? The path the Twins took with Matt Garza, another first round pick, albeit 25th overall, provides a clue. Garza was fast-tracked through the system due to his success and the state of the Twins starting rotation. The best guess is… 2013 – Twins have him pitch in rookie league and maybe low A but are careful about piling much wear and tear on his arm (especially if his Oklahoma coach keeps throwing him out there for 129-pitch outings.) 2014 – High A and maybe AA. 2015 – AA or AAA with a possible late season call-up. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… The most obvious reasoning used to criticize this pick would be to say that they got carried away with a player whose value was built on one-year’s performance and improvement. But, provided he signs, it would be hard to legitimately criticize, even if he doesn’t make it to the majors for some unforeseen reason. Knowing what we know, he’s the complete package and fits an area of extreme need in the organization. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… Well, they probably got lucky, because for most of the last two months Gray wasn’t supposed to be available at #4. However, in Keith Law’s latest mock draft, he had Gray falling into their laps – and then the Twins passed on him for high school pitching prospect Kohl Stewart. Though the Twins are clearly enamored with Stewart, Gray has similar (if not more) upside without the risks associated of drafting a high school pitcher. Oh – and he’s likely to arrive in the majors sooner. More than any other player in the draft, Gray might be the perfect choice for the Twins. --- Check out the other Twins Daily MLB Draft Player Profiles or follow the latest national mock drafts in our forum: Monday, May 20-- Sean Manaea, SP Tuesday, May 21-- Austin Meadows, OF Wednesday, May 22-- Trey Ball, OF Thursday, May 23-- Ryan Stanek, RHP Friday, May 24-- Clint Frazier, OF Tuesday, May 28-- Reese McGuire, C Wednesday, May 29—Braden Shipley, RHP Thursday, May 30 -- Kohl Stewart, RHP Friday, May 31 – Kris Bryant, 3B/1B For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter! Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau_Justin_Smiling_US_600.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' options at the trade deadline, Miguel Sano's benching at Double-A, Justin Morneau's place in team history, what to make of Samuel Deduno (again), Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia going in opposite directions, the light rail pub crawl/Twins game on September 14, Joe Mauer's paternity leave, and answering mailbag questions from listeners. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Bloggers and sabrmetricians are sometimes portrayed as treating players as tumbling dice. It's rhetoric meant to discredit and vilify, but it's not totally without merit. I know this because I think I'm about to treat Kyle Gibson and Chris Colabello as tumbling dice. Insiders (players, coaches, etc.) and outsiders (sabrmetrician, bloggers) have vastly different perspective on players and their development in two important ways.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] First, there is the matter of how much we value our projections. From the outside, we can talk of a player's development curve as an abstraction. We see him as a 22-year-old with an outstanding walk to strikeout ratio and we project him to become a different player four years from now. That projection is a range of possibilities, but it's a statistically backed range. We average them out and derive a destination. However, to the player in that development curve, and to the organization responsible for that development curve, there is no range. There is one spot: where he ends up. The range includes success and it includes failure and he can end up in either. That spot is everything. To them, the range means nothing. The average of that range certainly means nothing. So the first lesson is that player development curves, which are derived from watching groups of players, mean very little to the individual player or their organization. But there is a second and scarier aspect and that surrounds responsibility. We talk about these curves as if the player's progress along it is mandated from some higher forces. But the player and the organization can't count on that. They have to live it. They have to find their way through the obstacles, face the setbacks, make the adjustments. There are hundreds of games, thousands of repetitions, and uncounted adjustments for each player. These are what, when we add them all up, constitute improvement. They do not just happen. From the outside, we see a certain inevitability of improvement. But from the inside, improvement is far from inevitable. It is work and it is risk. However, there is value in being an outsider, too. There is an objectivity that can be lost while working one's way through the maze from the inside of the curve. Maybe some of those improvements, while not inevitable, are very likely. Maybe there are some basic aspects of being human that we eventually overcome. I'm hoping that is the case for Kyle Gibson and Chris Colabello. I talked to each earlier this week about their struggles after they were called up last year. From a distance, I wondered if Gibson thought his struggles were related to arm fatigue after coming back from Tommy John surgery. I wondered if the patience Colabello showed in a few games this week was due to some adjustments he's making in the batters box. They both said I was wrong. Instead, they both listed the same problem and that problem was far more basic and human: they had been nervous. Here's Gibson when I specifically asked him about wearing down at the end of the year. "No, I was just tense. I was not relaxed. I wasn't loose. And I wasn't very aggressive. I fell behind a lot of hitters and when you fall behind guys, big league hitters are pretty good. It makes a big difference. "Even in the starts when I struggled, the hitters who I got ahead of, they didn't really have too much success off of me. But I got behind a lot more hitters than I got ahead of. Getting myself in trouble was a lot of that. That's one thing I've worked on this offseason was being more aggressive and throwing more quality strikes. "I think some of it is confidence and some of it is just getting comfortable and getting used to your surroundings and playing in front of 30 or 35,000 fans every day. About seven or eight starts in, I realized I was gripping the death out of the ball or the life out of the ball. I wasn't relaxed and I wasn't loose. I'm just now figuring out how to transition that from the bullpens to the game because I've never had to really deal with that kind of adrenaline and excitement. I'm starting to get better at it, but it's still a process." This makes perfect sense. I know I'd be nervous. So I wasn't too surprised when later that day Chris Colabello said something very similar "I think it's a little bit of everything. In terms of just creating a mindset where you're relaxed, allowing yourself to remember how to slow the game down. I talk about that a lot. Last year, coming into this year, that was important to me. Obviously, having been around some guys here for a while now, getting a little bit more comfortable, and trying to know who I am, and them knowing who I am as well. It's more about approaching your at-bats with a little calm." Both players provide a perspective from inside the development curve. Anxiety is one of the challenges with which they have to wrestle. They feel like they're making progress with that. They feel like that progress is a big part of changing where they land on the development curve for the better. But from the outside, I don't know if I believe what the dice are telling me. I believe they are being totally honest. I know they have put a lot more thought into their development than I. I know they have a lot more data from which to base their conclusions. I believe that discomfort was a factor in their struggles. But ultimately, I still wonder if Colabello had trouble making adjustments to big league stuff because it's hard for 30-year-olds physiologically to make adjustments to big league stuff. And I wonder if Gibson wasn't as aggressive because he was getting hit when he was aggressive, and he was getting hit because his arm had been through a hell of a couple of years. It is also not surprising to me that neither player would concentrate on these factors because both are out of their control. Colabello cannot become 24. He can only approach each at-bat more mindfully, which he is demonstrating. Gibson couldn't do anything about what his arm has been through, other than resting it this offseason, which he did. The players don't care about those things for the same reason the bloggers and sabremetricians treat them as dice: you don't focus on on that which you cannot control. Both groups, inside and outside, look for truth based on their position in the curve. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between. Click here to view the article

I expected my head and heart would battle about trading Justin Morneau. But I didn't think that my heart would focus more on the future than the past. Download attachment: Morneau_Justin_PIT_US_720.jpg I expected my heart to focus on Morneau's glorious history with the Twins. If Morneau never plays again for the them (and I'm fairly sure he won't in the near future), he'll still rank fifth all-time in RBI, fourth all-time in slugging percentage and third all-time in home runs, as well as being one of just five Twins to have won an American League Most Valuable Player award. Despite having his career impacted by a concussion problem that cost him at least a year-and-a-half of his prime, he's a sure-fire inductee to the Twins Hall of Fame. But in Major League Baseball, a player is more than just his performance on the field. He is also attached to a contract and that contract affects how desirable that player is. In Morneau's case, he was attached to a contract that paid him $14M this year, or approximately $2.3M per month, which is an amount that far exceeded his production for most of the year. And that contract became at least as important as his performance for the last couple of months. For instance, two weeks ago Justin Morneau passed through waivers without being claimed by any team. Waivers is process by which a player is offered to each team, and if any team wants him, they can "claim" him. If they claimed Morneau, they risked the Twins just giving them Morneau and his contract, without any compensation. But nobody claimed Morneau. The risk of being stuck with Morneau's contract outweighed the value they expected to gain on the field, even for those teams chasing an postseason spot. In that light, my head is telling me that yesterday's trade is a victory for the Twins. They took a player who two weeks ago was passed over by the Pirates and turned him into an outfielder who is roughly equivalent to Clete Thomas and a somewhat promising right-handed reliever. This is a better return than Twins fans could have expected if Pittsburgh was also going to be responsible for that contract. "...if Pittsburgh was also going to be responsible for that contract." That's the part my heart is having trouble getting past. I'm not someone who rants about the Pohlad's billions and wonder why it isn't spent on my baseball team. I believe in budgets. I believe that a fiscally responsible business is admirable, and in fact necessary for it to truly be healthy long-term. But payroll was cut by $20 million this year. And this week they traded away Jamey Carroll for cash. And now the Twins traded away Morneau for a couple of fairly fungible prospects - which allows them to pocket another $2.6M. And my heart can't help but wonder if the Twins were more willing to eat that money - money which they certainly had in their budget already - what they could have received in return. The Pirates have some very tempting pitchers in their farm system, even if you overlook the top three names that would have been untouchable for any organization. And it's not like the money wasn't important to the Pirates. They admitted as much: If it was important to the Pirates, it must have been at least as important to the Twins. But why? They can't spend more on the amateur draft or international signings. They're both capped. They haven't bought any big name international free agents. They had trouble buying free agents last offseason. They even admitted they had budgeted tens of millions of dollars that they didn't spend. As a fan, it feels like the money is more important than the product. It feels like my favorite team's GM is more proud of the cash he saves ownership than the team he puts on the field. And it feels like trading away Justin Morneau was more about saving a few million dollars than trying to build for the future. So while my heart misses Morneau and what he did, what is really troubling it is the future. Are Terry Ryan's priorities in the right place? Is he ever going to be able to use the revenues that Target Field has provided. Does he fully understand the limits he faces when trying to spend money to build the farm system? That's the battle that my heart is waging right now with my head. Despite my head's best efforts, my heart is winning. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mauer_Joe_orig.jpg You only have two choices: will he be better or worse in 2013? 2012 Recap Given the clustermess that was 2011, most Minnesota Twins fans would have been happy just to see Joe Mauer on the field last year. They did - kinda. Mauer not only stayed healthy, but set a career high with 647 plate appearances and 147 games played. However, exactly half of his starts were at catcher (72 games), with the rest happening at designated hitter (42 games) and first base (30 games). I'll leave you to debate how that impacts his value. What is not debatable is the he returned to being elite offensively. He was in the AL batting race until the last weekend. His .416 on-base percentage led the league. He hit double-digit home runs (albeit barely) for the first time since his MVP campaign. And he posted an 861 OPS, tops for AL catchers. Why He'll Be Worse Don't look now, but like a certain blogger, our boy Joe turns 30 this year. That's even more ominous because he was also remarkably healthy last year. Furthermore, so was Ryan Doumit, which meant Mauer's body had the luxury of rarely being forced into multiple consecutive starts. Finally, there is the whole regression to the mean thing - how long can we expect him to stay at this level? Why He'll Be Better Believe it or not, that 861 OPS he posted is below his career 873 average. So was his .319 batting average. He'll also be a year further away from the injury problems that torpedoed 2011. Finally, both he and the Twins seem to have found (and accepted) a recipe for keeping him healthy by moving him around the diamond a little. So which is it? Click on this link to see our official thread AND take the survey. Then leave us a comment saying why. Get the Poll Creator Pro widget and many other great free widgets at Widgetbox! Not seeing a widget? (More info) Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pierzynski_600-321.jpg Vegas picked the White Sox to finish fourth in the AL Central this year, pegging them to win about 74.5 games. Chicago's season essentially ended last night when the Tigers clinched the division, but that means the Pale Hose' playoff hopes lasted until October, about four (five?) months longer than the Twins. They also made anyone who bet the “under” in Vegas look like a fool, exceeding Vegas preseason estimate by 10 games and counting. I am one of those fools. In our Gleeman and the Geek podcast, I predicted a miserable season on Chicago’s south side. They had won 79 games in 2011, but with a run differential that looked worse than that. And then they lost Mark Buehrle to the Marlins and traded away slugger Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos. They had also lost manager Ozzie Guillen, for better or worse. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But the White Sox responded by getting career (or at least bouncback) years from several suspect veterans. Pitcher Jake Peavy, who had spent most of the last few years injured, led the team in innings. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were much maligned last year when they were getting paid $24M to knock home just 84 RBI. This year they exceeded that number by 100. Kevin Youkilis came over from the Red Sox to fill a serious gap at third and AJ Pierzynski slugged a career high 27 home runs. However, none of those guys is less than 31 years old and several of them are going to be free agents. The White Sox had a fun year, but they really only had two younger players show they could contribute long-term. Pitcher Chris Sale became the staff ace while showing he could handle a starting pitcher’s workload. And center fielder Alejandro De Aza (who isn’t really young at 28 years old) posted very respectable numbers for a leadoff hitter and center fielder. Which means that this spring, Chicago is likely going to be wrestling with similar questions as there were last spring. Can they trust Rios and Dunn? How will eat Peavy’s innings? Who will play third base? Is Tyler Flowers ready to catch full time? And if things go right, will they still be a good, but not great, team that just misses the playoffs? Meanwhile, the Twins must decide this offseason just how jealous they are of the Sox success this year – because that might just be within reach. The Twins could grab two or three veteran arms and be a .500 club this summer. With a few breaks (which might include some regression from the Sox) they could challenge for the 2013 AL Central last into September. Like the Sox, it’s hard to imagine them winning 90 games, but meaningful baseball would be a welcome change after two years of futility. But if they did that, next offseason they would likely be back in a similar position as the Sox. They would be looking at losing Justin Morneau. They would have an aging roster. The departure of Denard Span and Josh Willingham would be a year away. They would have kept their team together and maybe missed the chance to add some pitching or middle infield prospects. They would have had success, shown they could fill some holes, maybe even given minor league talent time to work it’s way up the farm system, but they would still not have a widespread and deep foundation of a great team. They would still be missing that young and cheap core. Would that be enough? Click here to view the article

In case you didn't check out the blogs from today, you missed some good stuff...Download attachment: Personal-Blogging-Hullabaloo-All-the-Way.jpg If Stephen Strassburg can pitch on Opening Day this year, can Kyle Gibson next year? Cristian Guzman was released and is taking his (injured) talents to the Dominican Republic. It sounds like former top prospect Aaron Hicks will start the season at AA-New Britain. But is he ready? Shane wonders why not promote the veterans and let the prospects play everyday in Rochester? And Shawn wonders if David Bromberg can bounce back.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

At some (very depressing) point, as a season turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been coming since the middle of last week. The turning point was tonight. Download attachment: francisco-liriano-versus-yankees.jpg At some point, the focus changes from the team to the players. The moves become less about what the team needs, and more about what each player needs. It doesn’t necessarily mean coming down on one side or the other, but the balance changes. That balance changed tonight. Tonight third baseman Danny Valencia was sent to AAA-Rochester and starting pitcher Francisco Liriano was sent to the bullpen. I like both moves, because I agree with the change in focus. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I don’t know if Valencia is ever going to be a competent starting third baseman in the majors. Nobody does. But I sure used to think so. This move isn’t a punishment – it’s a release. Valencia is hitting .198, 50 points lower than last year, which was 50 points lower than 2010. As bad as that is, that’s not the most alarming of his statistics. He’s also struck out 23 times in 96 AB – and walked just twice. I don’t know what he needs, but he isn’t finding it here. I won’t argue with those suggesting that it’s foolish for a club to invest time in a 27-year-old’s career in AAA. But at this point, one needs to try things. Maybe AAA might reestablish Valencia’s confidence. With literally zero third base options in the Twins pipeline until at least 2014, why not try it? Which is exactly the philosophy for the other big move. Liriano is moved to the bullpen to try and regain some …. well, name it what you will. Confidence? Mojo? Momentum? Or, if you're especially cynical: Equity? They all work. The Twins and Liriano have tried everything else, and short of demoting him (which I suspect he and his agent would resist) this is the last option. If you’re of the opinion that Liriano needs to be traded for something valuable, I gotta think you like this move. Maybe Liriano can build some value. A decent reliever is valuable at the trade deadline. Even more so if he’s a southpaw. His value certainly can’t decrease. As for the rest – meh. Matt Maloney was the odd man out with another lefty moving to the bullpen. That's unlucky for him. I like Darin Mastoianni as a infield/outfield utility guy, though his infield coverage is limited. One can argue whether he’s the best fit, but I’m getting weary of sweating where deck chairs should be moved. PJ Walters must have had the right mix of control, BABIP and veterany goodness to make him the default pick for the open rotation spot. That's not the way I would go, but I’m not nearly as close to this situation, and it's close to a tie. Whatever. The bad news is that these look more and more like the moves of a last place team looking to the future. The good news is that is probably the correct philosophy to embrace. The focus is changing from the team to the individuals, and for both of these individuals, the change in focus looks to be wise. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: kfan_logo.jpg Aaron and John's Minnesota Twin podcast moves to KFAN 100.3 FM, but that's not the only change. The Twins relatively positive start also fuels their most optimistic episode, where they talk about Kevin Correia's fantastic start, the bullpen's impact and depth and the struggles some of the younger players in the lineup are facing. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Or click below to listen. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Benson_Joe_Original.jpg The Minnesota Twins made three roster moves today, the most significant of which was optioning outfielder Joe Benson to AAA-Rochester.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Benson had been nominally competing for the Twins centerfield spot with Aaron Hicks and Darin Mastroianni this spring. In addition, left-handed pitcher Pedro Hernandez was also optioned to Rochester and right-handed reliever Luis Perdomo was reassigned to minor league camp. Benson was always the longest of shots to win the center field job. Last year he struggled in AAA, was demoted to AA and finished the year with microfracture knee surgery. He also started slowly this spring, though he showed his potential later with a home run and some extra-base hits. The 25-year-old will try to regain his prospect status in Rochester this year. The Twins received Pedro Hernandez (along with infielder Eduardo Escobar) last year when they traded away Francisco Liriano at the trade deadline. The 23-year-old posted a 5.19 ERA in his four starts at Rochester last year before ending the season on the DL with a strained rotator cuff. Luis Perdomo threw 17 innings for the Twins last year, posting a 3.18 ERA, but he struggled with his control and was dropped from the 40-man roster this offseason. In addition, the Twins made some minor league cuts as well. Click here to view the article

If you're in the mood to listen to some Twins talk, but want to use your ears and give your eyes a break, check out these links:Download attachment: asustek_internet_radio_air_1.jpg Podcasts Seth does two weekly podcasts which you can download or listen to (and ask questions) live: Twins Minor League Weekly - Thursday Nights at 9 Twins Daily Weekly - Tuesday nights at 9John sits down with Aaron Gleeman at their favorite watering hole and talks Twins once per week, usually posting the results on Tuesday. You can find Gleeman and the Geek here, or you can subscribe, or you can check it out on iTunes, where you can do both. Radio If you would rather listen to us the old-fashioned way, you can often find us on the radio. John sits down with the PowerTrip Morning Show guys on KFAN every Tuesday and Friday morning from 6 to 9. You can listen here or find their podcasts here. Seth makes regular appearances on a number of stations, including: Dizzo's Den on WDAY 970 (Fargo) - The Sports Buffet on ESPN 99.1 (Sioux Falls) Twins Talk on 1700 The Champ (Des Moines) WQPM Radio at 1300 am (Princeton, MN)Front Row Sports with Scott Miller on KFGO (Fargo) Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Revere_Fielding_uspw_6390748.jpg Aaron and John start out with talk about Ben Revere's defense in center field, meander through the Minnesota Twins middle infield, rotation and bullpen, argue about Twins revenue projections and finish with mailbag questions and parenting advice. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.Or, just click on this link below to listen! http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/Ep_58_Rating_Revere_and_Late_Night_Life_Decisions. mp3[/media] [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] . Click here to view the article

Download attachment: f-bomb-full.jpg Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's latest ugly start, Luke Hughes leaving via the waiver wire, the clock ticking on Alexi Casilla and Danny Valencia, phone calls from listeners, why the bullpen has been better than expected, and why getting old stinks. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can listen, subscribe and leave ratings).[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Don't believe the hype. There might be 66 guys in Twins spring training, but they aren't really competing for roster spots. In fact, there may not be a single roster spot to compete for. Download attachment: 15518-Uncertain-Orange-Person-Shrugging-And-Weiging-Out-The-Options-Of-Yes-Or-No-Clipart-Illustr.jpg How come? Because of "options." Options are a MLB administrative rule that limits how long a team can keep a player on their 40-man roster but keep them in the minors. Basically, they have three years before they need to commit to bringing that player to the majors. For a little more on it, check out this entry, where I compared it to the amount of time before you move from dating to married. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If a player doesn't have "options" left, they cannot be sent to the minors without being offered to every other major league team. So a team risks losing that player, and that isn't a risk the Twins are usually anxious to take. Thus, a player without options almost always has the inside track to make it to Opening Day. And when you look over the 25 spots the Twins have available, player without options look like they're going to gobble up most of the open spots. Let's run through them. The Twins entered spring training with their lineup and rotation pretty set, which (barring any injuries) takes care of 14 of the 25 spots on the roster C - Joe Mauer 1B - Justin Morneau 2B - Alexi Casilla SS - Jamey Carroll 3B - Danny Valencia DH - Ryan Doumit RF - Josh Willingham CF - Denard Span LF - Ben Revere Rotation - Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn & Jason Marquis That leaves 11 spots, which probably includes four guys off the bench and seven guys in the bullpen. Here are heavy favorites for each of them: Drew Butera is likely the backup catcher unless the Twins are really enamored with newly acquired JR Towles.Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes are both out of options, so they're almost locks to be on the bench.The fourth spot might be the only open spot, but the obvious option is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who the Twins will be paying $3M whether he plays in the majors or minors.And there are similar roster crunches in the bullpen. Four of the seven spots will likely go to Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Joel Zumaya and Brian Duensing, all of whom are slotted for late-inning roles. And the other three spots? It turns out there are three relievers without options: Anthony Swarzak is out of options, is right-handed and did a nice job in the swingman role last year. It seems obvious that he would make it.Jeff Gray is a right-handed reliever who has pitched for several team the last couple of years. The Twins picked him up this offseason off of waivers because he was out of options. The Twins want at least one more right-hander in the bullpen, so he looks like a front-runner.Finally, Matt Maloney is a left-hander that the Twins also picked up this offseason because he was also out of options. He has mostly worked as a starter, but so did Perkins before the Twins moved him to the bullpen. And a third left-handed reliever might make sense given that Perkins won't be used situationally.Suddenly there are 0 spots left and another 41 guys in camp. So much for options. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: insurance-lrg.jpg So far, the Twins have invested $99M in their 2012 team. Whether you think they'll be competitive or not isn't the point. (I do.) Whether you think they should have cut payroll or not isn’t the point. (I don't.) The point is this: the Twins have invested $99M in their 2012 team. Now they need to spend a tiny fraction of that to insure it. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] You would think that would be obvious to the Twins, who have traditionally been a risk-adverse organization, especially under Terry Ryan. They demonstrated that again this offseason. They could've waited to sign their free agents, gambling that the market would go down and they wouldn't be left without competent players. Instead, they reversed course from the last few seasons, aggressively signing almost their entire roster before Christmas. But they also have a tradition of being extremely tied to a budget, and it appears they've hit it. But to stop now, when the free agent market is so affordable and they still have two enormous risks on the roster would be the definition of pennywise and pound-foolish. They created the first of these risks earlier this week when they signed Joel Zumaya to a super affordble one-year deal, heavy with incentives. The contract is awesome. Zumaya's health history isn't. Zumaya has failed to stay healthy for the last five consecutive seasons. The question isn't if he'll stay healthy. The question is when he'll break. When he does, the Twins are right back where they were a week ago - without a dependable right-handed arm in their bullpen other than Matt Capps. (Let's let the irony of that last sentence settle in for minute.) Zumaya has the potential to be a great signing or a dubious choice depending entirely on whether the Twins go out and sign someone else. There are a half-dozen competent right-handed relievers on the market, all of whom are likely to cost between one and two million dollars. That's how much it would take to transform the bullpen from “mess” to “average with upside.” The second risk was made clear last week on the MLB Network in an interview with Justin Morneau. "Most days, I wake up I feel pretty good. Usually after I get done, really exert myself, really working out hard after a long day, your brain gets tired and everything gets so worn down. It's not functioning the way it's supposed to be, and you kind of get done with the day and you go, 'Something's not right.' And you end up going home and taking a nap for a couple hours or whatever it is, and you wake up and the headache's still there and you kind of grind through it. But it's been a lot better lately.” “A lot better.” That’s an in interesting phrase. Not “good” or “fine.” Just “better.” Last year the Twins had a backup plan for Morneau: Jim Thome. He wouldn't play first, but manager Ron Gardenhire could move around the lineup and have Thome play designated hitter. He can do the same this year, except that the bats he is going to turn to are Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes. Meanwhile, one of the stories of the free agent market is how many designated hitter are looking for work. Vladamir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez and even Carlos Guillen are available and several of them are going to be available for about the same amount the Twins paid Thome. For $2-4 million, the Twins could pick up two key insurance policies on their #5 hitter and their bullpen. To not do so, to instead roll the dice on two critical areas that already look dubious, is foolhardy. ~~~ If you haven't taken advantage of the special pre-order price for Seth Stoh's Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, time is running out. This isn't an e-book, you can throw this on your bookcase, bring it to games, give it to the Twins fan in your life. Grab it quick to help retain your sanity during these cold snaps. You can order it HERE. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hawkins_Latroy_600_321.jpg A few of our members have been writing about potential future Twins, but concentrating on groups of players that could not be more different. Cody Christie has taken a look at ex-Twins that are available as free agents this offseason. He started by taking a look at hitters, from Henry Blanco to Torii Hunter, but couldn’t find much of a fit. Then he dove into the free agent market for pitchers, which include some obvious names (Scott Baker) but stretch back to a 40-year-old that debuted with the Twins when he was just 22. Meanwhile, mnfanforlife reviewed the (so far) underrated career of Max Kepler, a German high schooler the Twins signed a few years ago. Then he summarized the seasons of five college relievers the Twins nabbed in the draft this year, several of whom Terry Ryan says will be looked at as starters soon. And since Ryan also hinted some could move up the ladder quickly, mnfanforlife speculates on each one’s arrival schedule. Thanks Cody and MFFL, and thanks everyone for reading, writing, conversing in the forums and keeping the Twins Daily community active. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 1994.pontiac.grandam.9010-300x189.jpg Aaron's car finally kicked, so we take this opportunity to go through each of the Twins players and talk about our expectations, including which car we would compare them to. (It's better than it sounds.) Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 2012-02-17-cicerone.jpg Aaron and John talk about potential spring training position battles, Miguel Sano's timetable, late-signing free agent pitching, new theme songs from New Zealand, a sponsor's resume, bar crawls, Terry Ryan's cancer diagnosis, mailbag questions from listeners, choosing an Olympic sport to pair up in, slumming it on other podcasts, and how to stupidly avoid moving at all costs. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from: iTunes,Stitcher orfind it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article