Jeremy Nygaard

BA said Buxton would rank above Starling in the Top 100, which would be around 25 (higher with graduation to the pros), their current #2 Joe Benson, ranked at the bottom of the 100. Buxton for sure would be 2. (And I wouldn't be shocked if someone major had him over Sano.) I think the pitchers would all be 2. I think Correa would be in the mix for #2 (with Rosario). But you're right, it's all subjective.

1. Astros – P Mark Appel, Stanford. It comes down to him or Buxton. 2. Twins – OF Byron Buxton, Georgia HS. Correa gaining. 3. Mariners – SS Carlos Correa, Puerto Rico. The Mariners are unpredictable. I think it comes down to Correa or Buxton 4. Orioles – P Kevin Gausman, LSU. Bundy and Gausman could form a lethal combination. 5. Royals – P Kyle Zimmer, San Francisco. Will they pass on Zunino? Will they gamble on Giolito? 6. Cubs – OF Albert Almora, Florida HS. Correa dropping (at this point unlikely) could make this pick interesting. 7. Padres – P Max Fried, California HS. Zunino is a possibility. 8. Pirates – C Mike Zunino, Florida. Zunino could go anywhere, staring at #3. Marrero is a possibility. 9. Marlins – P Andrew Heaney, Oklahoma State. Almora was the first choice. 10. Rockies – OF Courtney Hawkins, Texas HS.

Kepler's on the same schedule as the guys that were drafted out of high school in 2009 (the summer he signed). Rule V eligible following the 2013 season and a six-year free agent (if he's not on a 40-man) after the 2016 season. Since most foreign players sign at 16, they need to be added to the 40-man at a younger age than players drafted in similar seasons. That's why, Oswaldo Arcia for example, is on an optional assignment at a lower level than the rest of the guys that were added to the 40-man last November and why guys like Estarlin DeLosSantos and Deibinson Romero were added when they were so young.

I'm convinced that if Brown is available at #32 that the Twins take him. TR is scouting him in person again today and Brown said he's always been a Twins fan. Though he later said he wouldn't be heart-broken if he was taken by someone else and I will be holding my breath during picks 29-31 (Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox).

Silva signed for $370K. Perez got $300K. SS Jonatan Ynojoso signed for $100K in 2009. Others that were signed this past winter - but don't appear on the roster - are Ps Fernando Romero ($260K) and Felix Jorge ($250K).

Originally posted at www.ManCenter.com ----------- Looking through names that expect to called next week, there are a few that seem to fit various patterns that the Twins have followed over the last handful of years. None of these names have appeared in any other preview that I've written. Luke Anderson, RHP, North Dakota State - Anderson is originally from Prior Lake, MN, so there is a very good chance he's been on the Twins radar for awhile. A senior with local ties could be added late in the draft to provide organizational depth. Kyle Cody, RHP, Chippewa Falls, WI - The Twins took a flier last year on J.J. Dettmann, a projectable pitcher from Western Wisconsin who ended up going to Connecticut. While Cody is very likely to head to Kentucky this fall, it wouldn't surprise anyone for them to take Cody to show their interest. Also of note, Chippewa Falls is Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra's birthplace. Brian Hanson, OF, St. Cloud State - Another Minnesota native, Hanson was drafted by the Indians out of high school. Hanson does have another year of eligibility left, but the Twins have done a very thorough job of drafting players for the state of Minnesota. McClendon Hill, SS, Georgia Perimeter JC - The Twins have taken a couple of players from this Junior College over the last few drafts. They also like to take athletic players from the state of Georgia. Matt Milroy, RHP, Illinois - While Milroy's raw stuff is much better than his actual stuff, the Twins have drafted quite a few Big Ten pitchers. Milroy may be the best of the that lot this year. Alec Rash, RHP, Adel, IA - Rash's build and scouting report reads almost identically to current farmhand and former Iowan B.J. Hermsen, a 2008 draft pick. Hermsen was given 2nd round money as a 6th round to buy him out of Oregon State. Could we see something similar with Rash and his commitment to Missouri? Timmy Robinson, OF, Huntington Beach, CA - The Twins like prepsters from California. The Twins like relatives of current Twins. The brother of Alex Burnett figures to be on the radar in the first half-dozen rounds. Wilfredo Rodriguez, C, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy - Rodriguez could continue the Twins run of getting the "bat tool" out of Puerto Rico. There are questions about whether he can stick at catcher... but if he can, the Twins would have added interest. Dalton Sawyer, LHP, Waconia, MN and Brent Strong, LHP, Andover, MN - The top two prep lefties in the state are committed to Minnesota and Bradley, respectively. If the Twins find themselves with extra money to spend in the late teens, it wouldn't surprise anyone if one of these two (or both) was the recipient of it. Similar to how the Twins got Austin Malinowski under contract last year. Julian Service, OF, Whitby, Ontario, Canada - The Twins have had past success in Canada with both Morneau and Rene Tosoni. Service is not the prototypical toolsy Twins outfielder, but he is slighty bigger, right-handed version of Tosoni. Storm Throne, RHP, Morningside (IA) - Similar to Rash, the Twins have taken pitchers from Iowa. Throne, who also is a basketball player, figures to return to college to play both sports as a senior, but this big, projectable righty fits the profile the Twins often look for.

Originally posted at www.ManCenter.com ----------- Looking through names that expect to called next week, there are a few that seem to fit various patterns that the Twins have followed over the last handful of years. None of these names have appeared in any other preview that I've written. Luke Anderson, RHP, North Dakota State - Anderson is originally from Prior Lake, MN, so there is a very good chance he's been on the Twins radar for awhile. A senior with local ties could be added late in the draft to provide organizational depth. Kyle Cody, RHP, Chippewa Falls, WI - The Twins took a flier last year on J.J. Dettmann, a projectable pitcher from Western Wisconsin who ended up going to Connecticut. While Cody is very likely to head to Kentucky this fall, it wouldn't surprise anyone for them to take Cody to show their interest. Also of note, Chippewa Falls is Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra's birthplace. Brian Hanson, OF, St. Cloud State - Another Minnesota native, Hanson was drafted by the Indians out of high school. Hanson does have another year of eligibility left, but the Twins have done a very thorough job of drafting players for the state of Minnesota. McClendon Hill, SS, Georgia Perimeter JC - The Twins have taken a couple of players from this Junior College over the last few drafts. They also like to take athletic players from the state of Georgia. Matt Milroy, RHP, Illinois - While Milroy's raw stuff is much better than his actual stuff, the Twins have drafted quite a few Big Ten pitchers. Milroy may be the best of the that lot this year. Alec Rash, RHP, Adel, IA - Rash's build and scouting report reads almost identically to current farmhand and former Iowan B.J. Hermsen, a 2008 draft pick. Hermsen was given 2nd round money as a 6th round to buy him out of Oregon State. Could we see something similar with Rash and his commitment to Missouri? Timmy Robinson, OF, Huntington Beach, CA - The Twins like prepsters from California. The Twins like relatives of current Twins. The brother of Alex Burnett figures to be on the radar in the first half-dozen rounds. Wilfredo Rodriguez, C, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy - Rodriguez could continue the Twins run of getting the "bat tool" out of Puerto Rico. There are questions about whether he can stick at catcher... but if he can, the Twins would have added interest. Dalton Sawyer, LHP, Waconia, MN and Brent Strong, LHP, Andover, MN - The top two prep lefties in the state are committed to Minnesota and Bradley, respectively. If the Twins find themselves with extra money to spend in the late teens, it wouldn't surprise anyone if one of these two (or both) was the recipient of it. Similar to how the Twins got Austin Malinowski under contract last year. Julian Service, OF, Whitby, Ontario, Canada - The Twins have had past success in Canada with both Morneau and Rene Tosoni. Service is not the prototypical toolsy Twins outfielder, but he is slighty bigger, right-handed version of Tosoni. Storm Throne, RHP, Morningside (IA) - Similar to Rash, the Twins have taken pitchers from Iowa. Throne, who also is a basketball player, figures to return to college to play both sports as a senior, but this big, projectable righty fits the profile the Twins often look for.

Seasons. So most college players draft last year in 2011 will get 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 to make an impression and would have to be added in advance of the 2014 Rule V draft. If the Twins draft Buxton this year, he'd get five years 2012-16 and would have to be added in 2016. College guys would be 2015. Free agency works a little different in terms of time. You hear the term "six-year free agent", but Monday's draftees will not accumulate a full year this year, so they won't be minor league free agents for seven off-seasons, or 2018. If any of these players are added to the big-league roster before then, they would be under team control until they have six years of major league experience.

I vaguely recall having a conversation with Seth at TwinsFest about how Herrmann will be the perfect complement to Mauer as soon as 2013. Herrmann also played a little 3B before being drafted, it'd be nice if he could (re)add that to his arsenal.

KLaw just relesed mock draft 2.0 and has the Twins still taking Buxton though he notes that he thinks they have Appel #1 on their board and that Buxton and Zimmer are both still in play.

I guess I don't buy the "can't get an A-list prospect" for Morneau. It was only a couple of years ago that the Indians were able to get Carlos Santana for 34-year-old Casey Blake because they helped cover the rest of Blake's contract. The Twins could stand to pay the remainder (or most) of his contract and get an A-list prospect in return, in my opinion. The part this is at least equally as concerning as the concussions, is that he's had various other ailments almost consistantly since 2009. On the other hand, though, he was on an MVP pace that year too. If he can stay healthy for another month and a half, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Morneau is the most sought-after player at the deadline. MOST NL teams (which isn't the ideal destination) have issues at 1B. Quick, who's the best NL first basemen not named Joey Votto? (Look it up, it's scarier than I thought!)

I partially agree. When I went down there earlier this year, he was only a name to me. But every time he hit the ball it sounded different than everyone else (except Sano). The problem for Koch - probably not for him as much as how he's regarded as a prospect - is his age. He'd be old for the FSL! Regardless, he's a name to watch.

Baseball America recently released their Top 500 and the following players are guys that show up on the list that the Twins have previously drafted. [TABLE=width: 509] 2012 DRAFT ELIGIBLE POS DRAFTED BA RANK COLLEGE CLASS James Ramsey OF[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #51 FLORIDA STATE SR [TD=colspan: 6]Has been called "baseball's Tim Tebow", turned down a $500K offer from Twins because he didn't want to move to second base.[/TD] Pat Light RHP[TD=align: right]2009[/TD] #81 MONMOUTH JR [TD=colspan: 6]Big-bodied pitcher who pounds the zone. Will get a chance to start, but could end up in late-inning role with mid-90s fastball.[/TD] Ryan Tella OF[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #201 AUBURN R-SO [TD=colspan: 6]Compared to Clete Thomas, though scouting report reads more like Denard Span.[/TD] Ronnie Richardson OF[TD=align: right]2009[/TD] #231 CENTRAL FLORIDA JR [TD=colspan: 6]Five-foot-six, he's not as fast as Ben Revere, though he has a better arm.[/TD] T.J. Oakes RHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #292 MINNESOTA JR [TD=colspan: 6]Twins familiar with Oakes, whose dad is the Gophers pitching coach.[/TD] Eduardo (EJ) Encinosa RHP[TD=align: right]2009[/TD] #322 MIAMI JR [TD=colspan: 6]Has the Miami attitude (think Valencia), though he doesn't have the control or command to spot his mid-90s fastball.[/TD] Dylan Chavez LHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #339 MISSISSIPPI JR [TD=colspan: 6]Has bounced around. Is a strike-thrower, who throws a fastball in the low-90s out of the bullpen[/TD] Will Clinard RHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #367 VANDERBILT JR [TD=colspan: 6]Tough sign. Hasn't pitched much as Vandy's closer, has a low-90s fastball and a good slider.[/TD] [/TABLE]

Baseball America recently released their Top 500 and the following players are guys that show up on the list that the Twins have previously drafted. [TABLE=width: 509] 2012 DRAFT ELIGIBLE POS DRAFTED BA RANK COLLEGE CLASS James Ramsey OF[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #51 FLORIDA STATE SR [TD=colspan: 6]Has been called "baseball's Tim Tebow", turned down a $500K offer from Twins because he didn't want to move to second base.[/TD] Pat Light RHP[TD=align: right]2009[/TD] #81 MONMOUTH JR [TD=colspan: 6]Big-bodied pitcher who pounds the zone. Will get a chance to start, but could end up in late-inning role with mid-90s fastball.[/TD] Ryan Tella OF[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #201 AUBURN R-SO [TD=colspan: 6]Compared to Clete Thomas, though scouting report reads more like Denard Span.[/TD] Ronnie Richardson OF[TD=align: right]2009[/TD] #231 CENTRAL FLORIDA JR [TD=colspan: 6]Five-foot-six, he's not as fast as Ben Revere, though he has a better arm.[/TD] T.J. Oakes RHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #292 MINNESOTA JR [TD=colspan: 6]Twins familiar with Oakes, whose dad is the Gophers pitching coach.[/TD] Eduardo (EJ) Encinosa RHP[TD=align: right]2009[/TD] #322 MIAMI JR [TD=colspan: 6]Has the Miami attitude (think Valencia), though he doesn't have the control or command to spot his mid-90s fastball.[/TD] Dylan Chavez LHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #339 MISSISSIPPI JR [TD=colspan: 6]Has bounced around. Is a strike-thrower, who throws a fastball in the low-90s out of the bullpen[/TD] Will Clinard RHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD] #367 VANDERBILT JR [TD=colspan: 6]Tough sign. Hasn't pitched much as Vandy's closer, has a low-90s fastball and a good slider.[/TD] [/TABLE]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?590-Memorial-Monday-s-Minor-League-Round-up

Happy Memorial Day! Jason Marquis was not claimed on release waivers – and both Marquis and the Twins declined sending him to Rochester – thus making him a free agent. The Twins will continue to pay the remainder of the $3 million owed to Marquis. If another team signs him to the minimum, the Twins bill will go down that much (probably $480,000). His – and Erik Komatsu’s – removal from the 40-man leaves the roster at 38 men. Gardenhire also said he didn’t expect the Twins to work out a trade for Komatsu’s rights. The Twins – after a come-from-behind-win – are still tied with the Cubs in the race for the first pick in the 2013 MLB Draft. This year’s draft takes place a week from today. Let’s take a spin around the farm: ROCHESTER 1, CHARLOTTE 4 Box score David Bromberg made his return to AAA and was charged with four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings. He struck out four, walked two and allowed seven hits. Lester Oliveros got the next five outs, four by strikeouts and allowed two hits. Anthony Slama did Oliveros one better by striking out all the batters (three) that he faced while allowing no hits. The story of Slama this year has been well-documented on this site and others. The biggest story of today’s game was the returned presence of Terry Doyle (the Twins Rule V draft pick this year). Doyle’s no-hit bid was broke up with one out in the eighth (on a Matt Carson double). Pedro Florimon added a two-out home run in the ninth. Danny Valencia followed that up with a single before Sean Burroughs ended the game with a groundout to the second baseman. It’s worth noting that Danny Valencia is batting .325 over his last ten games. Also, before Sean Burroughs went 0-for-4 today, he went 8-for-his-last-15. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if either of these guys got the call to come play third base for the Big Club within the next week. NEW BRITAIN 3, PORTLAND 0 Box score The arms were the story for the RockCats. Brett Jacobson, all the Twins still have to show for J.J. Hardy, made a spot start in place of David Bromberg. He allowed only two hits, walking and striking out one in four shutout innings (therefore, not qualifying for the win). He was a little wild – as has been the hard-thrower’s problem in the past – hitting one, picking up an error on a pickoff attempt and throwing two wild pitches as well. Blake Martin struck out three in two innings of shutout ball (getting the win). Daniel Turpen allowed two hits in one inning of work, but struck out two and allowed no runs. Caleb Thielbar collected his second save by striking out two in two innings of no-hit baseball. The bats didn’t do much – but didn’t have to either. All three runs were scored in the third inning. Rene Tosoni hit a two-out double. Aaron Hicks (who also singled in the first) knocked Tosoni in with a single. Chris Colabello followed with a two-run blast. FT. MYERS IDLE The Miracle had a scheduled day off. They will face 2011 first-overall pick Gerrit Cole tomorrow. BELOIT 15, KANE COUNTY 9 Box score Matt Summers – who has had a fantastic May (9 ER, 31 IP) – went five innings, striking out eight while giving up seven hits, four runs (one earned) and a walk. The bullpen trio of Ryan O’Rourke, Michael Tonkin and Clint Dempster were not nearly as solid. Collectively, they went five innings. They allowed 11 hits, five runs (all earned) and a walk. They struck out six. Corey Williams got the win, but had some trouble of his own, allowing three hits to start the bottom of the 12th. He did strike out two and got an unassisted double play from A.J. Pettersen to end the game. Miguel Sano started the game 0-for-6, with two strikeouts and his 19th error of the season. He turned it around in the top of the 12th hitting a 3-run homerun to blow open the game big time. This came after a Matt Koch double that scored Jonathan Goncalves to give the Snappers the lead and Tyler Grimes, J.D. Williams and Pettersen added singles. Eddie Rosario plated a run with a sacrifice fly. And then there was Sano… The rest of the offense was even better than Sano. Williams, Pettersen, Koch and Grimes all had three hits. Rosario, Goncalves and Drew Leachman all hit two-hits. Rosario had five RBI. It’s loaded from top to bottom, so seriously consider checking out the box score linked above. Last year’s 11th round pick and Wisconsin-native Tyler Jones will be making his Snapper starting debut tomorrow. Milwaukee and Beloit are only about forty minutes apart, so hopefully any family that Jones has in Milwaukee will be able to make the trip. Jones has pitched four scoreless innings in relief since being brought up from extended spring training earlier this week. He had a rough professional start last year, giving up 10 earned runs in seven innings pitched in four games after signing last summer. --- Players of the Day for Monday, May 28, 2012 Hitters of the Day – Snappers offense (see above) [ATTACH=CONFIG]1065[/ATTACH] Pitcher of the Day – Brett Jacobson [ATTACH=CONFIG]1064[/ATTACH] (Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com) --- A Look Ahead – Tuesday, May 29, 2012 Schedule Rochester vs Gwinnett – RHP Nick Blackburn (Rehab) New Britain vs Binghamton – RHP B.J. Hermsen (2-1, 1.83) Ft. Myers vs Clearwater – RHP Madison Boer (0-5, 11.76) Beloit at Kane County – RHP Tyler Jones (0-0, 0.00) --- If you have any questions on the Twins minor league system, players, teams, etc., leave them in the Comments and we’ll try to answer them! Comments also welcome.

I have my opinions about what those labels mean. I would say that #4/#5 starters are the same. Guys that can give you a lot of innings, but not have a great strikeout rate and struggle with consistency. Guys like Nick Blackburn. I also think that these types of guys, who are able to maintain over a long time - like Pavano - can become #3 starters. AAAA pitchers are pitchers that are just too good for AAA or have played AAA ball for a long time, but when they've been given shots at the major-league level, just can't get it done. (If Slama gets another chance and doesn't have success, he would fit this label). Long-relief guys, in my mind, are those that are stretched out and have been given the opportunity to start, but just haven't had success over multiple innings and don't seem to help out in the bullpen in short stints. ('Tweeners?) AAA pitchers are those guys knocking on the door, but have never been given an extended look. And then there are those that really fit into multiple levels. Liriano (when not mentally handicapped) - #2 Baker (when healthy) - #2/#3 Pavano - #3 Blackburn - #4/5 Swarzak - long-relief Walters - AAAA (not enough experience to be considered #4/#5 yet) Diamond - AAA (but on his way to becoming #4/#5) De Vries - AAA Duensing is a unique case and I think he ends up going the way of Perkins and becoming a late-inning LOOGY-type pitcher. But that stems mostly from the fact that he's not good against RH batters.

You're right about Slama's options. But - unless his brief major league appearances change something - he'll have six years of minor league service after this year and will be a free agent in November anyway. So if the Twins want to keep in the organization (which it doesn't seem like they really care), they'd have to add him to the 40-man between now and November. At least bringing him up would allow him to prove who's right: the scouts or the numbers.

I read that New Hampshire just re-upped with the Blue Jays. My impression was that was the most logical destination for the Twins. At this point, I have to believe that the Twins stay in New Britain for a couple more years.

I agree with this statement, to a point. But Morneau - and Cuddy before him - is just a pawn in a much bigger game. His career isn't over when his contract expires, so if the Twins aren't able to cash him in for something and he walks, they've made a very questionable "business" move (again). Between now and next July, I would really like to hope that Morneau's "chip value" to the team is more than just a draft pick.

From what I hear, Hensley will be off the board in the late teens to mid-twenties. I haven't really taken the time to learn too much about him, simply cause I don't think he'll be in play when the sandwich round rolls around. Buttrey is a different case. I would lump him in with a lot of high school guys that will probably go late sandwich, early second. The thing about Buttrey is that he could go to Arkansas for two years and really improve his draft stock. That could cause him to slide.

As you probably know, the MLB Draft will be taking place in just a little over a week. There is a lot of draft-related material scattered all over this very website. Among them are a handful of Draft Previews that I've written. Recently, there was a lengthy thread started by "cmb0252" which is all about the draft. What follows is a tag team effort between myself and "cmb0252" (I'm not sure if he's ready to introduce himself to the world yet), which took place over the last couple of days. ---- Jeremy Nygaard: The assumption – right or wrong – is that the Astros take Mark Appel first overall. That doesn’t affect my board at all. I have Byron Buxton solidly at #1. I know there are knocks on him – and the perception that outfield is the deepest position in the system – but, as the organizational philosophy goes: he’s the best player available. No one, besides Miguel Sano (and maybe not even Sano), has the upside that this guy has. cmb0252: If we are going by the assumption that the Astros take Mark Appel with the first overall pick, that also doesn't affect my board. As Keith Law put it, "he could easily end up the best player out of this draft, given his youth and upside at the plate." No, he wasn't talking about Buxton, but Carlos Correa. Correa just turned 17, a year and a half younger than Buxton, and is considered to have the best high school bat in the draft. Where Buxton might have the defensive edge profiling as a plus plus up the middle player and while most feel Correa will outgrow SS he still profiles as a plus defensive 3B. Younger, better bat, huge upside, AND is at a position we actually need. Twins actually haven't been linked to Correa so for arguments sake I will bring up a name they have: Gausman. (EDITOR'S NOTE: The Twins were linked to Correa last night.) Once again quoting Keith Law, "Gausman is flashing two plus secondary pitches now and getting ground balls and has the velocity to match the other guys, not to mention better results as a sophomore in the nation's best conference. "While Gausman profiles as a #2, which would still put him in the top 40-50 pitchers in baseball, he does have a ceiling of a number one. I guess my question to my counterpart would be, why does a 18+ year old HS kid have a better chance to hit his ceiling than a 21 year old college kid? In the end they both have high ceilings but one also has a high floor. JN: If the Twins decide to go college pitcher, I really hope it is Gausman. I also think there is better chance that Gausman reaches his ceiling than Buxton. Buxton’s ceiling, though, is higher. The moment he signs he’s going to be a top-25 prospect in all of baseball. The same can’t be said for any of the college pitchers, in my opinion. While the Twins haven’t gotten a lot of opportunities to draft the top-of-the-line starters, they also haven’t had the chance to draft very many middle-of-the-order, middle-of-the-defense-type players either. We’re talking Justin Upton/Matt Kemp comps. That’s league MVP comparables. But that’s ceiling again and far from a slam-dunk. With all that being said, I wouldn’t fault the Twins for drafting Buxton, Gausman or Correa. Chances are one of those guys is going to sign for $3.5 million as the #5 pick, a much better value than the $6.2 million that the #2 pick is worth. Long story short, I don’t think there is a $2.7 million difference in those three guys, and a case can be made that any of the three are the best. ------ JN: I’m curious to see what happens with Mitch Brown. Being local, he’s as “can’t-miss” as we’ve seen since Mauer. My philosophy going in would be to let him know that we have him evaluated as a “sandwich round” prospect, tell him we really want him and offer him a little over “sandwich-round average” ($1.2 million) as the 32nd pick. I hope that buys him out of his commitment and the team can bank $350,000 savings. CB: For Twins fans who follow the draft outside of who the Twins are taking at #2 the hottest topic is Mitch Brown. For those of you that haven't heard of Brown "the best draft prospect out of Minnesota in 2012" here is MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo's take on him: "While not the biggest guy in the world, he is strong and durably built. He also has a good idea of what he’s doing on the mound. The right-hander can run his fastball up to 94 mph. He can spin a breaking ball pretty well, throws a good cutter and even shows a feel for the changeup. That gives him the chance to have four Major League average or well above offerings in the future." Mayo has him at 66, Law has him at 45, and BA has him at 44. While I won’t argue that we shouldn't target Brown- we need all the pitching we can get- I'm going to suggest it would be better to roll the dice and hope he is there at pick #42. There should still be premium talent around at #32, we need as much premium talent as we can get, and we can’t waste that pick on sentiment. Obviously we won’t know who will be there at #32 on draft day but looking at mocks there are is a good chance a player like Zach Elfin, Matt Smoral, Corey Seager, or Stryker Trahan could be waiting for us. JN: The industry sentiment is that teams are going to take guys they like early, pay them less than slot value and see what falls to them later, knowing they would be able to pay those guys more than slot value. I would argue that unless there is a guy the Twins like more (that has similar demands), they should absolutely draft Brown at #32. As you mentioned, Baseball America, who I trust more than the others, rates Brown 44, which is probably close to where I’d rank him on talent alone. But don’t forget to account for the guys that are rated higher that will drop because of their demands. If some of those guys are there at #32, I’d rather risk letting them slide to #42, knowing that I’ve at least gotten the guy I want (Brown) at #32. It would also be easier to stomach – from a pure financial standpoint – letting a lower draft pick go unsigned, as that money is removed from the spending pool. ---- JN: With the rules around bonuses changing, I’ve spent so much time wondering how the Twins squeeze every last penny out of their $12,368,200 bonus pool to make this draft as productive as possible. At the end of the day, though, I have a hard time believing the “cost-effective” team even spends $11 million. CB: I agree that there is a very slim chance the Twins use their whole‚ $12,368,200 bonus pool‚ but I wouldn't be surprised if they broke $11M. The Twins spent $5.9M on 2011 draft which was actually over the recommended amount last year. Where that sounds like a small number compared to this year you have to take into account that the #2 pick, $6.2M bonus, has a higher recommended bonus than our whole draft last year. Also, the 30th overall pick Levi Michael signed for $1.175M last year which is actually less money than the recommended signing bonus for the #32 pick this year. Not only do the Twins have the chance, money, and picks to bring a lot of talent into our minor league system, they have the need. JN: You’re right, obviously the $6.2 million figure skews the data. Looking at their signing history, though, the Twins – and every other team, presumably – are going to bank savings on college seniors: Adam Bryant signed for $25,000 last year (this year’s value: $125,600), Matt Hauser ($45,000 vs $141,700) and Kyle Knudson ($25,000 vs $129,300) in 2010. Heck, even Brian Dozier ($30,000 vs $139,500) was a great “value” pick. Yes, this could give them the chance to sign some later-drafted guys to bigger deals, but I just have a feeling: When all is said and done, the Twins will have shaved a lot of money off their full allotment. ----- JN: I’m going to dream a little bit. Pie-in-the-sky hope here: Buxton and Brown go #2 and #32. The team knows their demands and will have around $2 million to spend on #42. Keeping with the pie-in-the-sky theory, I really hope that a high-school pitcher with high demands, like a Matt Smoral, Zach Eflin, J.O. Berrios or Hunter Virant, can be convinced to take a couple million - that other teams won't be able to offer - to join the Twins. CB: Where we differ at who we prefer the Twins to take at #2, Buxton vs Correa/Gausman, we have pretty much the same names at #32/42.....just different order.‚ If you are asking me my realistic "dream" draft?‚ Gausman at #2, Elfin at #32, and Brown at #42 would work for me. Three guys that profile as mid to top of the rotation starters who have a chance to be more. Sounds exactly like what the doctor ordered to fix our woe minor league pitching staffs. In the end though I would be happy with a draft of one of Buxton/Correa/Guasman, Brown, and one of Virant/Smoral/Eflin/Seager. JN: I would be ecstatic if Seager fell out of the first round and the Twins were able to draft him and get him signed. If he’s fallen that far, though, I have to believe that no one was able to meet his demands and that would be enough to scare the Twins off too. If the Twins get two high-ceiling pitchers out of the first three picks, I’d end Day 1 of the draft a pretty happy Twins fan. --- Part 2: COMING SOON!

As you probably know, the MLB Draft will be taking place in just a little over a week. There is a lot of draft-related material scattered all over this very website. Among them are a handful of Draft Previews that I've written. Recently, there was a lengthy thread started by "cmb0252" which is all about the draft. What follows is a tag team effort between myself and "cmb0252" (I'm not sure if he's ready to introduce himself to the world yet), which took place over the last couple of days. ---- Jeremy Nygaard: The assumption – right or wrong – is that the Astros take Mark Appel first overall. That doesn’t affect my board at all. I have Byron Buxton solidly at #1. I know there are knocks on him – and the perception that outfield is the deepest position in the system – but, as the organizational philosophy goes: he’s the best player available. No one, besides Miguel Sano (and maybe not even Sano), has the upside that this guy has. cmb0252: If we are going by the assumption that the Astros take Mark Appel with the first overall pick, that also doesn't affect my board. As Keith Law put it, "he could easily end up the best player out of this draft, given his youth and upside at the plate." No, he wasn't talking about Buxton, but Carlos Correa. Correa just turned 17, a year and a half younger than Buxton, and is considered to have the best high school bat in the draft. Where Buxton might have the defensive edge profiling as a plus plus up the middle player and while most feel Correa will outgrow SS he still profiles as a plus defensive 3B. Younger, better bat, huge upside, AND is at a position we actually need. Twins actually haven't been linked to Correa so for arguments sake I will bring up a name they have: Gausman. (EDITOR'S NOTE: The Twins were linked to Correa last night.) Once again quoting Keith Law, "Gausman is flashing two plus secondary pitches now and getting ground balls and has the velocity to match the other guys, not to mention better results as a sophomore in the nation's best conference. "While Gausman profiles as a #2, which would still put him in the top 40-50 pitchers in baseball, he does have a ceiling of a number one. I guess my question to my counterpart would be, why does a 18+ year old HS kid have a better chance to hit his ceiling than a 21 year old college kid? In the end they both have high ceilings but one also has a high floor. JN: If the Twins decide to go college pitcher, I really hope it is Gausman. I also think there is better chance that Gausman reaches his ceiling than Buxton. Buxton’s ceiling, though, is higher. The moment he signs he’s going to be a top-25 prospect in all of baseball. The same can’t be said for any of the college pitchers, in my opinion. While the Twins haven’t gotten a lot of opportunities to draft the top-of-the-line starters, they also haven’t had the chance to draft very many middle-of-the-order, middle-of-the-defense-type players either. We’re talking Justin Upton/Matt Kemp comps. That’s league MVP comparables. But that’s ceiling again and far from a slam-dunk. With all that being said, I wouldn’t fault the Twins for drafting Buxton, Gausman or Correa. Chances are one of those guys is going to sign for $3.5 million as the #5 pick, a much better value than the $6.2 million that the #2 pick is worth. Long story short, I don’t think there is a $2.7 million difference in those three guys, and a case can be made that any of the three are the best. ------ JN: I’m curious to see what happens with Mitch Brown. Being local, he’s as “can’t-miss” as we’ve seen since Mauer. My philosophy going in would be to let him know that we have him evaluated as a “sandwich round” prospect, tell him we really want him and offer him a little over “sandwich-round average” ($1.2 million) as the 32nd pick. I hope that buys him out of his commitment and the team can bank $350,000 savings. CB: For Twins fans who follow the draft outside of who the Twins are taking at #2 the hottest topic is Mitch Brown. For those of you that haven't heard of Brown "the best draft prospect out of Minnesota in 2012" here is MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo's take on him: "While not the biggest guy in the world, he is strong and durably built. He also has a good idea of what he’s doing on the mound. The right-hander can run his fastball up to 94 mph. He can spin a breaking ball pretty well, throws a good cutter and even shows a feel for the changeup. That gives him the chance to have four Major League average or well above offerings in the future." Mayo has him at 66, Law has him at 45, and BA has him at 44. While I won’t argue that we shouldn't target Brown- we need all the pitching we can get- I'm going to suggest it would be better to roll the dice and hope he is there at pick #42. There should still be premium talent around at #32, we need as much premium talent as we can get, and we can’t waste that pick on sentiment. Obviously we won’t know who will be there at #32 on draft day but looking at mocks there are is a good chance a player like Zach Elfin, Matt Smoral, Corey Seager, or Stryker Trahan could be waiting for us. JN: The industry sentiment is that teams are going to take guys they like early, pay them less than slot value and see what falls to them later, knowing they would be able to pay those guys more than slot value. I would argue that unless there is a guy the Twins like more (that has similar demands), they should absolutely draft Brown at #32. As you mentioned, Baseball America, who I trust more than the others, rates Brown 44, which is probably close to where I’d rank him on talent alone. But don’t forget to account for the guys that are rated higher that will drop because of their demands. If some of those guys are there at #32, I’d rather risk letting them slide to #42, knowing that I’ve at least gotten the guy I want (Brown) at #32. It would also be easier to stomach – from a pure financial standpoint – letting a lower draft pick go unsigned, as that money is removed from the spending pool. ---- JN: With the rules around bonuses changing, I’ve spent so much time wondering how the Twins squeeze every last penny out of their $12,368,200 bonus pool to make this draft as productive as possible. At the end of the day, though, I have a hard time believing the “cost-effective” team even spends $11 million. CB: I agree that there is a very slim chance the Twins use their whole‚ $12,368,200 bonus pool‚ but I wouldn't be surprised if they broke $11M. The Twins spent $5.9M on 2011 draft which was actually over the recommended amount last year. Where that sounds like a small number compared to this year you have to take into account that the #2 pick, $6.2M bonus, has a higher recommended bonus than our whole draft last year. Also, the 30th overall pick Levi Michael signed for $1.175M last year which is actually less money than the recommended signing bonus for the #32 pick this year. Not only do the Twins have the chance, money, and picks to bring a lot of talent into our minor league system, they have the need. JN: You’re right, obviously the $6.2 million figure skews the data. Looking at their signing history, though, the Twins – and every other team, presumably – are going to bank savings on college seniors: Adam Bryant signed for $25,000 last year (this year’s value: $125,600), Matt Hauser ($45,000 vs $141,700) and Kyle Knudson ($25,000 vs $129,300) in 2010. Heck, even Brian Dozier ($30,000 vs $139,500) was a great “value” pick. Yes, this could give them the chance to sign some later-drafted guys to bigger deals, but I just have a feeling: When all is said and done, the Twins will have shaved a lot of money off their full allotment. ----- JN: I’m going to dream a little bit. Pie-in-the-sky hope here: Buxton and Brown go #2 and #32. The team knows their demands and will have around $2 million to spend on #42. Keeping with the pie-in-the-sky theory, I really hope that a high-school pitcher with high demands, like a Matt Smoral, Zach Eflin, J.O. Berrios or Hunter Virant, can be convinced to take a couple million - that other teams won't be able to offer - to join the Twins. CB: Where we differ at who we prefer the Twins to take at #2, Buxton vs Correa/Gausman, we have pretty much the same names at #32/42.....just different order.‚ If you are asking me my realistic "dream" draft?‚ Gausman at #2, Elfin at #32, and Brown at #42 would work for me. Three guys that profile as mid to top of the rotation starters who have a chance to be more. Sounds exactly like what the doctor ordered to fix our woe minor league pitching staffs. In the end though I would be happy with a draft of one of Buxton/Correa/Guasman, Brown, and one of Virant/Smoral/Eflin/Seager. JN: I would be ecstatic if Seager fell out of the first round and the Twins were able to draft him and get him signed. If he’s fallen that far, though, I have to believe that no one was able to meet his demands and that would be enough to scare the Twins off too. If the Twins get two high-ceiling pitchers out of the first three picks, I’d end Day 1 of the draft a pretty happy Twins fan. --- Part 2: COMING SOON!