"The Twins have been a little prone to striking out lately."
A little prone? Lately?
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terrydactyls
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Blog Entries posted by terrydactyls
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Today on Power Alley (MLB Radio), the announcers were discussing the Twins-Brewers game tonight (Wed, Aug 23). Corbin Burnes is the Milwaukee pitcher and he has been striking out batters at a very high rate One announcer said that it would be an interesting matchup because:
"The Twins have been a little prone to striking out lately."
A little prone? Lately?
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This is one person's view concerning the possible upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani.
There have been many predictions that Ohtani may be the first $500M player. The reaction of most people is that a price tag like that eliminates the Twins. But, does it?
If Ohtani becomes a free agent, I think the Twins should make a quick offer of 8 years at a total of $480M (an AVV of $60M). WTF? you say? Why not? You get a genuine "ace" and a top tier outfielder wrapped up in a single person. The top three free agent pitchers in 2022 signed for an average AVV of $32M and the top three free agent hitters signed for an average AVV of $27M (or $59M combined). The offer looks outrageous but it is in line with the going rate. It also frees up an additional roster spot! And, from what I am hearing on MLB radio and TV, the merchandise sales in Japan alone might cover the entire salary. It is certainly worth taking a shot at signing Ohtani. Tell his agent it is your BAFO (best and final offer) and is good only for 24 hours. If he signs, great. If he doesn't sign, you gave it your best shot.
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I was thinking about the Arizona Fall League (hereafter referred to as AFL) and how to improve it. I don't like that only a limited number of Twins' players are allowed to participate. My conclusion is to dump the AFL and replace it with the FPL (the Fall Prospect League). The FPL would consist of two divisions (Florida and Arizona) and be based at the spring training facilities of each MLB team.. The players selected for each franchise's 30-player roster would consist of any minor leaguers (including current year draft picks) that the parent team wants to get extra playing time and major leaguers that finished the season on the 60-day IL and want to get some rehab done. The structure of each team would be in the hands of the parent club. The adding and deleting of players on the roster would be loosely monitored. For example, if Alex Kirilloff wanted to test out his surgically repaired wrist for a couple weeks, that would be acceptable. The season would run from October to mid-December and finish with a three-game championship playoff. The playoff site would be at the home field of either the Florida champion or the Arizona champion and alternate each year.
That is my proposal. Now you may rip it to shreds, tell me how stupid it is, and propose something even better. ???
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I was watching a game today and paid extra attention to the catcher. He is considered one of the worst pitcher framers in the game. He wasn't too fluid in his motions but he also did not have much to work with. How is good pitch framing defined? Is it the number of strikes called by the umpire that technology determined were not really in the strike zone? If that is a true statement, then I think there is an inherent problem. If a pitch is slightly out of the zone and the catcher pulls it into the zone and it’s called a strike, he gets credit for pith framing. But what about the catcher that is behind the plate for a pitcher that always misses by three inches instead of a half inch? He gets no credit for pitch framing. But is he really worse at it? The best pitch framers might be the catchers on teams that have the pitchers with the most control. I don’t know the answer so everyone can enlighten me.
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Here is my theoretical letter to the Twins ownership and to the agent for Byron Buxton concerning to current negotiations to extend Buxton’s contract.
A Letter to Falvey/Levine/Pohlad and B.B. Abbott
Dear Sirs:
It is my understanding that all of you are in basic agreement concerning the base salary for an extension for Byron Buxton and that the holdup is the incentives. Because your negotiations are done in private (as they should be), I have no idea what the concerns of each side might be. Here are my suggestions.
Make the base salary $12M per year beginning in 2022 and extending for an additional seven years for a total base contract of 8/$96M. The incentive plan should be have a base with achievable goals and extending to difficult to reach goals with significant rewards for attaining them. Below is a table showing some possible goals and bonuses attached to each goal. The minimum amount of bonus that can be earned would be $8M and is based on Buxton having an above league average season for an outfielder. The maximum attainable bonus would be $21.5M but would mean that Buxton would be the best player in baseball. But the amount of the bonus would be offset partially by increased revenues caused by every baseball fan in America wanting to see Buxton play in person.
Games 100 120 130 140 150 160 Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M Hits 140 160 180 200 220 240 Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M Home Runs 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M Stolen Bases 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M MVP Voting 10th 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M $3.0M $3.5M $4.0M $5.0M Gold Glove Voting 3rd 2nd 1st Bonus $1.5M $3.0M $4.5M Platinum Glove Voting 1st Bonus $2.0M I understand that this commitment would be a significant financial investment but only if Buxton provides the level of performance that should be rewarded. If you have any questions, I can be reached through Twins Daily.
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Welcome to the terrydactyls 2022 off-season moves. My decisions had a couple of assumptions.
1. Buxton is extended at a base of $15M a year plus incentives.
2. A trade is made with the Miami Marlins. The Twins trade Kepler, Arraez, Garver, and Wood Richardson in exchange for Sandy Alcantera and Richard Bleier (LHRP). This seemingly lopsided trade was necessary to balance the trade on baseballtradesimulator.com. If the trade can be completed with less assets moving to Miami, that's even better.
3. The front office made its final decision based on the New Home Buyer methodology (explained below).
My first step was to fill the holes left by the trade. So Jeffers takes over for Garver, Celestino replaces Kepler, and Gordon is the new Utility Guy instead of Arraez. Yes it is a loss of offensive punch but I believe the farm had plenty of substitutes. Miranda is now the full time DH. Larnach, Astudillo and Rortvedt complete the bench. To cover the SS hole, I sign free agent Iglesias to a 1-year deal.
Next, I turned to the pitching side. Alcantera is now at the top of the rotation. I retain Ober and Ryan as starters. In the bullpen, I retain Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Alcala, and Moran plus the addition of Bleier from the trade. I then sign free agents McHugh and Knebe to complete the bullpen. At this point, my salary total is at $96.4M leaving me $34.4M for two starting pitchers. Next up is to get Robbie Ray at $25M, leaving only $9.4M for the last remaining roster spot. This is where the New Home Buyer methodology comes into play. When buying a house, you always have a list of desired features and a budget within to work. The decision you have to make is between most of your features and staying within budget, or stretching your budget and get some additional features that you really want. I can add Pineda for $10M and come in just slightly over my $130M budget. But that doesn't give me the dream house I would really like. So do I stretch my budget a little and get what I want or live with the less than ideal situation. I decide to stretch the budget and sign Stroman for $20M. That brings my new salary total to $140.6M. That might necessitate reducing the number of three martini lunches for the front office, but it will give me a World Series caliber starting rotation, a very solid bullpen, and enough offensive to win a lot of games. Comments?
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Here is one person's thoughts on how to handle the 40 Man roster and the upcoming Rule 5 draft. I obtained the current roster from MLB.com and the Rule 5 eligibles from a Twins Daily article.
There are currently 42 names on the active roster including the 60-day IL and pending free agents. From this list, I would drop the following:
Charlie Barnes
Alex Colome
Ralph Garza, Jr
Griffen Jax
Michael Pineda
Devin Smeltzer
Lewis Thorpe
Williams Astudillo
Andrelton Simmons
Jake Cave
Kyle Garlick
Rob Refsnyder
That reduces the list from 42 to 30. Next I would add the following to protect them from the Rule 5 draft:
Royce Lewis
Jose Miranda
Josh Winder
Blayne Below
Cole Sands
Wander Javier
Jermaine Palacios
Kody Funderburk
That leaves two empty spots on the 40-man roster. This is just my opinion and is based on nothing more than a hope for the future and a six-pack of Spotted Cow beer.
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You have all been very patient waiting for my 2019-2020 offseason plan. Your patience is now rewarded as I present to you the master plan for winning the 2020 World Series. {Cue the calliope.} This plan includes six free agency signings, one major trade, three contract extensions, and one token raise as a reward for a great year.
The Trade to End All Trades
Step one is to call the Arizona Diamondbacks and offer them the opportunity to greatly improve their day-to-day lineup. The Twins send to Arizona Eddie Rosario, Zander Weil, Brent Rooker, and Nick Gordon to help them shore up their corner outfield positions, 2B, and 1B. In return, the Twins receive Robbie Ray and Kevin Ginkel. “Kevin Who”, you ask? During 2018 and 2019, in Double A and Triple A, Ginkel pitched 105 and a third innings allowing only 65 hits and 26 walks for a WHIP of 0.867. He held opponents to a .176 batting average. He struck out 163 (13.96 per 9 innings) and gave up only 9 homeruns. He had a brief stint with the Diamondbacks in 2019 that mirrored his minor league success. He’s only 25 and he won’t be a free agent until 2025.
Free Agent Signings
Pitchers
Zach Wheeler at $18M a year for 4 years.
Drew Pomeranz at $3.5M a year for 2 years.
Hitters
IF/OF Brock Holt at $4.5M for 2 years.
OF Derek Dietrich at $9M for 2 years.
C Travis D’Arnaud at $3.5M for 2 years.
Derek Dietrich and Travis D’Arnaud can both play 1B and Brock Holt plays anything but catcher and shortstop.
Extensions
Miguel Sano at $12M a year for 3 years.
Byron Buxton at $5.5M a year for 3 years.
Jose Berrios at $$7.5M a year for 3 years.
Token Raise
Give Mitch Garver a raise to $1M for 2020.
This gives the Twins a 2020 roster that looks like this:
26 players at $145.90M.
C Mitch Garver $1M
1B Marwin Gonzalez $9M
2B Luis Arraez $0.6M
3B Miguel Sano $12M
SS Jorge Polanco $4M
LF Derek Dietrich $9M
CF Byron Buxton $5.5M
RF Max Kepler $6.3M
DH Nelson Cruz $12M
OF Brock Holt $4.5M
IF Ehire Adrianza $3M
C Travis D'Arnaud $3.5M
C Willians Astudillo $0.6M
OF LaMonte Wade, Jr. $0.6M
SP Jake Odorizzi $18.7M
SP Jose Berrios $7.5M
SP Kyle Gibson $7M
SP Zach Wheeler $18M
RP Randy Dobnak $0.6M
RP Taylor Rogers $4
RP Tyler Duffey $1.3M
RP Trevor May $2.5M
RP Zack Littell $0.6M
RP Kevin Ginkel $0.6M
RP Drew Pomeranz $3.5M
Perez Buyout $0.5M
The top five prospects remain with the Twins. Filling the 40-man roster becomes easier. And the Twins waltz through 2020 with the best winning percentage since the 1954 Indians. What do you think????
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Review
By terrydactyls,
I went back to a January 18, 2017 blog by Brandon Warne in which he predicted the Twins would win 80 games and asked readers to comment and make their own predictions. The blog was eight pages long but by page five, the predictions stopped and the criticisms of the team began. Most of the negative comments were about how horrible the Twins defense would by in 2017, especially at third base with Miguel Sano~. Here is a summary of the predictions that I found:
Brandon Warne: 80
Wsnydes: 70-75
PseudoSABR: 70s
Tom Froemming: high 60s
Mazeville: 80+
Jimmer: low 70s
Diehardtwinsfan: 80 at best
Halsey Hall: 75-80
Jandersh: 70
Einstein1: less than 70
Han Joelo: 75
Platoon: 73-75
wiesbadenDAN: 75
beckmt: 75-80
nytwinsfan: 75
Doomtints: 70
DocBauer: 70-75
Brock Beauchamp: they will spend the entire year under .500
Bk432: 75
Oldgoat_MN: 70-75
Only two people (10%) predicted at least 80 wins and only three others (15%) said 80 was an outside possibility if all the stars aligned. Simple math tells us that 75% of Twins Daily posters on this blog blew it.
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