The Pitchers: RHP Chris Flexen (14-6, 3.61 ERA, 179.2 IP, 125 K's, 3.89 FIP, 3.5 bWAR) vs RHP Dylan Bundy (2-9, 6.06 ERA, 90.2 IP, 84 K's, 5.51 FIP, -0.3 bWAR)
I'm back. Good or bad, but I am back. Hopefully Dylan Bundy joins me on the "I'm back" path. Flexen is coming off the best year of his career for the Mariners, and is looking to repeat in 2022. Flexen relies on a 4-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup. He throws the 4S 40% of the time, at an average velocity of 92.8 MPH. This is very similar to Sonny Gray, although his velo was down in his first start of the year. The fastball was hit hard last year for a batting average against of .273, including 8 homers. The cutter also gets hit hard, and he throws it 30% of the time. Flexen's changeup was his best pitch in 2021, with a whiff rate of 26.5%. He allowed just .160 batting average against on this pitch. The curve is thrown as much as the slider, but with much worse success. Flexen was hit hard in ST to the tune of a 7.31 ERA.
Bundy, who signed for 5M before the lockout, is looking to bounceback. The former Angel broke out in 2020, but was terrible in 2021. Bundy relies on a 5 pitch mix of the 4S, slider, sinker, changeup, and curveball. The fastball averages just over 90 MPH, but he limited hits on the pitch. However, it did get taken yard 6 times in just 90 innings. The slider is Bundy's best pitch, with a whiff rate of 36%. I expect the usage on the pitch to raise a fair amount, and think it may be his most used pitch as long as he is on the Twins' roster. While the slider is his best pitch, the sinker is his worst. He gave up .609 points worth of slugging on the pitch in 2021. I expect this pitch to be used far less frequent than the 17.3% it was used last year (just over 8% in 2020.) The changeup is used almost exclusively against LHH, and the curve was fairly good despite being thrown the least amount of the time.
The Lineups
Twins
1. Byron Buxton (R) CF
2. Carlos Correa (R) SS
3. Luis Arraez (L) 3B
4. Jorge Polanco (S) 2B
5. Gio Urshela (R) DH
6. Max Kepler (L) RF
7. Gary Sanchez (R) C
8. Miguel Sano (R) 1B
9. Alex Kirilloff (L) LF
Mariners
1. Adam Frazier (L) DH
2. Ty France (R) 1B
3. Jesse Winker (L) LF
4. Mitch Haniger (R) RF
5. Abraham Toro (S) 2B
6. Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
7. J.P. Crawford (L) SS
8. Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
9. Cal Raleigh (S) C
The Twins lineup looks largely similar to the 2nd game of the season when they faced a right hander for the first time. Buxton continues to hit leadoff, while Correa slides up to the 2 spot with Arraez back in the lineup at the hot corner. Polanco slides to the cleanup spot, while Urshella gets his first start at third base. Kepler, coming off a homer yesterday, stays in right field. I have the o/u for "groundballs into the shift" set at 1.5. Sanchez gets his second start behind the dish with Jeffers getting a day off. They'll both be in the lineup Tuesday and Wednesday going against 2 southpaws. Sano slides way down in the order without a hit, as does Alex Kiriloff. The Mariners lineup looks fairly similar as well. Frazier slides to DH today, while Toro, who was acquired for Kendall Gravemen last year, gets his second start of the year at 2B with Adam at DH. Suarez, who swings and misses more than my roommate on Friday night, hits 6th. Julio Rodrigueiz, who is off to a tough start, stays in the lineup, while the Mariners finally reuse one of their 3 catchers. Jared Kelenic is not in tonight's lineup. Byron Buxton has 1 career homers vs Flexen, while no other Twin has 1. Mitch Haniger has taken Dylan Bundy deep once as well, and JP Crawford is hitting .400 in 15 at-bats.
Vegas Odds: Mariners +115, Twins -135, O/U 9.5.
On This Day: 1990 - California Angels pitchers Mark Langston and Mike Witt combine to no-hit the Seattle Mariners. Starter Mark Langston is removed after 7 innings and Witt finishes the no-hitter by pitching a perfect eighth and ninth innings.
Pick to Click: Miguel Sano gets on the home run board with a 2 run shot in the 2nd innings
Prediction: Twins 7, Seattle 5
Go Twins!!