James Richter

I wouldn't be too hard on these guys for allowing a lot of hits - the defense behind them was way below average. The problem is that most of them saw a decline in their K/9 while their BB/9 went the other way. They also didn't do a very good job of stranding inherited runners, which led to a lot of big innings. Declining on Burton was the right decision, and I'd move on from Duensing and Swarzak, too. KC's bullpen should be an inspiration. Adding a couple of shut-down guys to go with Perkins could shorten games and make the work of the offense stand up. There is definitely some potential for guys like that in the pipeline, with several intriguing prospects likely starting the year at AA or above. I hope some of those guys will get a chance in 2015. But other than finding an outfielder who can reliably catch the ball, adding a stud reliever or two is probably going to give the Twins the biggest bang for their offseason bucks.

Everything Hughes did well this year is the sort of thing pitchers can control, and at his age and with low career mileage on his arm, he should be able to provide a similar performance next year. Maybe not record-setting, but with normal BABIP he could double his walk rate and still come out even. But I understand the skepticism - the first time Cliff Lee got his BB/9 under 2.0 I said, "Yeah, right, do it again." Needless to say... It perplexes me that so many in this community will see something unexpectedly good happen (Hughes' 2014) and say, "No, that was fluky, look at his track record, he's really a #2-#3," but when something unexpectedly bad happens (Nolasco's 1st half), they'll say, "That guy sucks, his contract is a disaster, lets dump him as fast as we can." Nolasco had a 6-season track record of being a mid-rotation starter before he signed here, and his post-DL performance was consistent with that track record. I wish more folks would be as willing to dismiss the fluky bad stuff as the good stuff.

I hope Meyer gets every opportunity to make the rotation out of spring training. I'm somewhat torn on whether it would be better for him to hone his control for 8-10 starts in the minors or work on it out of the bullpen a la Liriano. He should certainly have a role on the team for most of 2015. I'm looking forward to the reliever breakdown in the Handbook - will they be sorted by K/9?

I love the premise of this post, particularly because it keeps the focus of talent acquisition and player development firmly on 2016, where it has likely been since the rebuild got underway in mid 2012. The sustained window of contention that will be opening this time next year is the prize we're working for, and clarifying who can be a contributor to that is the most valuable thing the Twins can do in 2015. Dozier and Plouffe have developed into above-average big-leaguers because they've been allowed to figure it out at the ML level. Let's give that opportunity to Hicks, Pinto, May, Meyer. Because it's so critical to the success of the SPs, I think the Twins should be proactive about acquiring the best available defensive CF. Looks like that's Bourjos. I doubt he would cost more than a decent bullpen arm. That guy + Hicks/Schafer in LF + a revamped middle relief group has the potential to drop every SP's ERA by half a run. Over the last 5 seasons, 76 teams had non-negative run differentials. All but 3 of those had winning records, and the 3 who didn't each finished 79-83. The Twins need to give up 62 fewer runs next year in order to get their differential out of the red and raise their win total to 79 (if they're unlikely). The group they finished the season with, augmented by a couple of sensible acquisitions, is absolutely capable of achieving that. And can we stop referring to Hughes as a #2-#3 starter? By every meaningful metric he was a top 30 pitcher this year. I'll give you #1-#2, but he's more of an ace right now (and likely to be next year) than, say, James Shields.

Nolasco post-DL: 6+ IP/GS, 7.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 10.2% HR/FB, .331 BABIP, 3.71 xFIP Shields 2nd Half: 7- IP/GS, 6.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 7.8% HR/FB, .268 BABIP, 3.62 xFIP Nolasco's BABIP is as much above average as Shields' is below. Luck? A comparison of the OF defenses? Both? Shields also had a much lower HR/FB% than his career norm (11.2%). I offer the 2nd half numbers because I think it's more fair to project Nolasco's 2015 performance based on a period of the season when we know he was healthy, and because Shields' 2nd half emphasizes how much his K% is in decline but also how much he benefits from otherworldly BABIP. Nolasco is younger and has much less mileage on his arm. Depending on where Shields signs and what the Twins do with their OF, I wouldn't be surprised if the difference between these 2 pitchers is pretty minimal in 2015. I will certainly expect to see the 2nd half Nolasco, who would easily be worth $12M over 30+ GS. Bottom line: if you hated the Nolasco signing, you probably wouldn't like Shields, either.

Hughes could regress significantly and still be as good as James Shields was this season. If he continues to perform at this rate he will be the most coveted SP at the trade deadline next year - the Twins could easily cash him in for a trade package akin to what Shields and Samardiza netted. Or hang onto him if things are breaking the right way next year. Even if he regresses horribly, he's already provided value in excess of his contract. Win-win. Now the trick is to locate and sign the guy who will be the next Phil Hughes...

Parm could possibly turn into a Garrett Jones type - but I would let some other team find that out. Nunez isn't better enough than the multitude of minor league FAs who will be available this offseason to merit paying more than league minimum. Schafer is a pretty ideal bench guy for the 2015 Twins: they'll want to PH Pinto for Arcia in high-leverage spots against LHPs, then have Schafer PR and take over in RF. Or have Arcia hit his way on late, then have Schafer PR. Or just use him as the defensive sub late when the Twins are ahead. Give Hicks some days off against tough RHPs. And if they don't acquire an outside OF, Schafer can hold down one of the OF spots until Rosario and/or Buxton is ready.

In his minor league career, Hicks has never had a season in which his Iso was lower than .111, and that came in a 22 game sample. His Iso in 262 minor league PAs in 2014 was .150. This notion that he can't hit for power is based on 186 MLB PAs last season. Looks like a SSS outlier to me. The organization has soured on him, or Gardy soured on him? Other players Gardy soured on: JJ Hardy, Craig Breslow, Kyle Lohse, Pat Neshek... It is hardly damning that Gardy soured on somebody. If the new manager hates him, too, OK. Meanwhile, he showed up for winter ball in the first week - that shows some commitment, doesn't it?

Trades are fine, as long as they aren't selling low and/or buying high. Mauer would be perfect for Red Sox, and I'm sure they know it, but he's coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. Would they give us a lot in prospects right now? Take on a lot of salary? If not, don't make the trade. Same with Hicks. He's a former top-50 prospect with solid minor-league numbers who was rushed to the Majors and struggled. But he already showed that he can get on base at an acceptable rate for a CF at the bottom of a lineup. He's way too big and strong to keep putting up Ben Revere's Iso. He's way too fast with too strong of an arm to keep playing below average defense, particularly if LF is his eventual position. If Gardy were still around, we could project him stagnating, but who knows what the new coaching staff can get out of him. I hope they spend at least the first half of 2015 finding out. Wanna make a surprise trade? Make Hughes or Santana available. Either one would net a pretty awesome return, very likely providing more value than we can reasonably expect from either of them over their remaining time with the Twins. Sell overvalued assets to acquire undervalued assets - that's how you build wealth.

I wouldn't dream of classifying '91 as a crapshoot. Both teams worthy of being there, and incredibly evenly matched. However - what if the Braves had had home field advantage that year? That was essentially a coin flip.

Okay, I'll do it: the '87 World Series was a crapshoot where the Twins prevailed! They had no business beating the Tigers whatsoever, and yet they kicked their ass. Doyle Alexander had been lights-out for 2 straight months and then lost 2 straight playoff games. Kinda like Kershaw this year. The Twins only had 2 good starting pitchers, but that's all you really need in a short series. As for the WS, they won the first 2 games on the strength of 2 bat-around innings which included key non-outs from Tim Laudner (.191/.252/.389) and Steve Lombardozzi (.238/.298/.352). They survived game 6 thanks to Don Baylor's only HR in a Twins uniform and Hrbek hitting a ball 439 feet off a lefty reliever who had been dominating him all series. Game 7 had a bunch of weird calls that instant replay probably would have overturned, though they may have evened out between benefitting and hurting the Twins. Also, the Twins had the good luck of facing a Cardinals team whose 2 best hitters were injured (Jack Clark and Terry Pendleton) and combined for something like 1 Sac bunt in the series. Plus, the short series with the Tigers enabled the Twins to setup Viola and Blyleven to pitch 5 of the 7 games, while the 7-game NLCS the Cards went through forced them to start a rookie in Game 1 & 7. Crap. Shoot.

Royals starters in 2014: 986.2 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, .291 BABIP, 42.1% GB, 3.60 ERA, 4.05 xFIP If that's a championship rotation, the Twins aren't too far away: 913.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, .325 BABIP, 42.7% GB, 5.06 ERA, 4.08 xFIP Royals hitters in 2014: .263/.314/.376, 95 HR, 153 SB, 94 wRC+ If that's a championship lineup, the Twins are right there: .254/.324/.389, 128 HR, 99 SB, 102 wRC+ Royals defense in 2014: 40 DRS, 61.1 UZR, 74.8 Def If that's a championship defense, the Twins... yikes: -73 DRS, -34.5 UZR, -46.5 Def And the Royals bullpen from 2014: 464 IP, 8.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, .293 BABIP, 3.30 ERA, 3.54 xFIP Compared with the Twins: 521.2 IP, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, .296 BABIP, 3.73 ERA, 4.18 xFIP Both teams have flyball rotations and big home parks. The crucial piece is the defense - the BABIP discrepancy more or less accounts for the difference in starters' IP and ERA. If you dig a little deeper into the defensive stats, the Royals IF isn't really any better than the Twins IF. Almost all of that eye-popping defensive value comes from the Royals outstanding OF, while most of the Twins' dreadful defensive ratings come from their OF. If the Twins and Royals had swapped rotations before the season, KC would be just as likely to be in the World Series right now. Conclusion: swap out the meh half of the bullpen for some guys who can miss bats, put some guys in the OF who can actually catch the ball... 80-something wins here we come.

Great article on Fangraphs today about the Royals' D: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/defense-needed-the-royals/ Lots of embedded clips to contrast with the one Parker included here. What's James Shields' ERA this season if he's pitching in front of the Twins' OF instead of those guys?

While I'm not certain what TR was getting at with the decisions that "don't look exactly like you want right now" line, it made me think of Nolasco. Based on comments I've read here over the past few weeks, it seems nearly universal that he's a failure with nothing to offer over the remainder of his contract, already a sunk cost. Gang, his full season xFIP was 3.99, and his post-DL xFIP was 3.71. His BABIP allowed this year was .050 higher than his career average. It is completely reasonable to expect him to have a 2015 much more in line with his track record, and that our perception of TR's decision to sign him will be much more favorable 12 months from now. I wish TR hadn't stated an intention to stay competitive right before signing Correia and Pelfrey 2 years ago. To me, it didn't signal that he was disingenuous so much as that he didn't understand what kind of SP would actually make a difference. He took a step forward by selecting Hughes and Nolasco, but then he signed Pelfrey again, and for 2 years. I'm not sure I want him tying up a bunch more money on veteran FAs until I see some consistency in his ability to properly value the players on the market.

In a completely unscientific survey of the Twins' September games, I found that they allowed a little under 4 R/G with at least 2 of Hicks/Santana/Schafer in the OF, and a little over 6 R/G with only one of them out there. The samples in each case are only a dozen-ish games, hardly definitive, but perhaps suggestive that simply making sure there are 2 athletic, trained OFs in the lineup each day can be a boon to the pitchers. The starters in the 2nd half combined for an xFIP of 3.89, which was within a tenth of a run of the AL average (3.82). That's even with 4 lousy starts each from Correia and Swarzak, a nightmarish debut month from May, and an unprecedentedly terrible month from Milone. I don't think it's a stretch to project a similar xFIP figure in 2015, particularly with the May we saw in September taking all of Correia's starts and Milone reverting to his career average. Normal results on balls in play can turn what appears to be a bad rotation into a decent one overnight. Putting an average or better defender in LF - which shouldn't be an expensive proposition - may be the key to breaking this streak of losing seasons.

Hicks has arrived in Venezuela and made his 1st appearance for the Bravos de Margarita.

Amen, Mike. Pinto is another guy who gets a new lease on life with Gardy no longer in the dugout. His minor league CS% has been solid (32% for his career down there) so I don't see any reason for long-term concern there. If he can get the other aspects of fielding his position anywhere close to average, the bat is good enough to make him an above-average catcher in terms of net value. And he's got nothing left to prove in the minors. Play the guy!

Lest we forget, through 500 PA Dozier was hitting .227/.266/.316 after also getting very little experience at AAA. And he was older than Hicks, and had a less impressive prospect pedigree. The Twins stuck with him and gave him a chance to figure it out at the ML level, and we're glad they did. Dozier appears to have some makeup qualities going for him that Hicks is lacking. Then again, lots of guys who got into Gardy's doghouse for one reason or another were able to thrive under different leadership in other organizations. I like that the new coaching staff gives Hicks a bit of a change of scenery within the same team. We need to see him display some power in-game, and make all the routine plays on the bases and in the field. Physically, he's capable. Mentally, there's clearly more work to do. I hope he shows by the end of spring training that he's progressing as a professional. But unless he completely falls on his face in the Grapefruit League, I want to see him get another 500 PA with the Twins in 2015.

If the Twins can afford to have someone of EE's quality as their bench IF, that will be a sign that they're on their way to being a good team again.

It seems like Gardy is making himself accountable for the results of recent seasons, and you have to respect that. He is well enough regarded around the league that he should find somewhere to make a contribution. Moving on from MN is definitely a good decision for all parties. One thing this does for me is immediately raise my optimism that the Twins will break camp with the best possible 25-man roster next spring. For all his good qualities as a manager, Gardy rarely seemed to get that right.

Here's a little fun with SSS: The Twins' RA/G in September (innings 1-9) with... At least 2 of Schafer/Santana/Hicks starting in the OF: 39 RA/9 G = 4.33 One or fewer of those 3 starting in the OF: 49 RA/7 G = 7.00 This makes no attempt to factor in runs that came via HRs (and there were plenty, weren't there?). And of course, we're only talking about a handful of games. Still, let's watch these trends over the final 10 games...

Definitely bring him to spring training and give him a chance to earn a spot. If he pitches like he did down the stretch in 2013, he will have value somewhere. If the Twins don't have room, some other team will suffer an injury to their rotation and want an affordable veteran to fill in. He could easily fill the Swarzak role in the bullpen if nothing else. Only if he tanks in spring training should he be dropped. Throwing value away is a big reason the Twins are in this mess.

We should expect younger players to improve all aspects of their game (except raw speed) as they gain experience. Arcia and Hicks have some work to do, and should be held accountable if they fail to show improvement in the field next year. But CF isn't Hicks' long-term position with this team anyway, and I can't conceive of how someone with his legs and arm won't turn out to be an above-average LF. Meanwhile, Schafer's career numbers in CF are only a touch below average - maybe he's the one to throw out there until Buxton comes along. While Hicks and Schafer's total OPS for the year is a bit below average for AL #8-9 hitters, and their OBPs are above average. If they can sustain or improve upon their numbers over the final 16 games, they should get every chance to win starting jobs next spring. I don't have a problem with the 2015 Twins setting themselves up to have a piranha-type offense from #8-#2 guys: get on and run the bases, and wait for the doubles from the #3-#7 spots. Defensively, I would expect improvement in RF (incremental growth from Arcia), CF (growth from Hicks or use Schafer) and LF (either Hicks or Schafer will be way better than Willingham/Kubel).

I think for everybody's sanity it would be best to see some indication that the guys who are getting more playing time this month can win at a decent clip against .500-ish competition. I can forgive them for losing a bunch of games in the last at-bat to the best team in baseball. Now I want to see them win at least half of their 6 Sept. games against Cleveland. Last night was a good start.

It took Bill Smith 4 years to completely flush away all the good things TR had spent a decade+ building. Shouldn't TR get at least that much time to try to put things back together?