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awinter

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Everything posted by awinter

  1. If TR can convince the Mets to do this, then he's a genius! I love this trade, but I don't see any benefit to the Mets. They dump one year of Cuddyer to take on multiple years of Nolasco, so this isn't a salary dump. This move makes their pitching staff worse, and it seems the Mets are more likely to trade away one of their talented pitchers because they don't have room for all of them. If I'm the Mets, I'd much trade Cuddyer straight up for a low level prospect or package Cuddy + cash for a little bit better of a low level prospect.
  2. I'm all for shedding Nolasco, but why include Hughes? He had a rough year, but he's still one of the Twins' 5 best options at SP. You would also be selling low on Hughes.
  3. Good to know, spycake. I made some assumptions there when I grew tired of doing research. So if the Twins aren't locked in, where could they rank among MLB in TV revenue? I would still bet on them being in the bottom third every year.
  4. I agree that the stacked farm system should be able to help our beloved squad have success in the next 4 to 6 years. Before I get to my point, I would like to preface it with this: I firmly believe the best way to position an MLB team for success is by developing players in the farm system and winning with them while they are cheap. Once a player. Now my point: I don't think we can take any comfort in our $125M payroll capabilities. Our 2015 opening day payroll was $102M and was ranked 21st in the majors (full disclosure: if payroll was $125M, that's good enough for 11th). That's bottom third of MLB and I think the Twins will stay in the bottom third and could slide further down. Here's why: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-send-shock-waves-through-local-tv-landscape/ If you don't feel like reading the whole thing, the Twins are making an estimated $29M/year on their TV deal which began in 2011. I count 10 teams that have less lucrative deals, but 6 of these deals expire in the next few years. In the past few years we've seen teams signing much more lucrative deals so I would expect some of these 6 to surpass the Twins. Although we don't know the exact terms of the FSN deal, I would expect the Twins would be locked in between 15-30 years, that's at least through 2026. What this means- as other teams start making more, they are able to spend more and the Twins will have a hard time competing in the free agent market. They're not destined for failure because of this, but they will continue to be restricted by their inability to compete for free agents and will have to win with a core of young pre-arbitration players. That said, I'm excited to have a core of talented young players for the next 6 years! Time for the window to open.
  5. My gut told me that Dozier has a history of fading in the 2nd half so I decided to look at his pre and post All Star Break OPS over the last 2 seasons. 2015 Pre: .841 2015 Post: .639 2014 Pre: .777 2014 Post: .739 These were somewhat surprising to me. I had thought 2014 was a bigger drop-off (my misconception based on the HR drop-off- only 5 after ASG). No question his first half numbers have been better in recent year, but the gap between 1st & 2nd half wasn't too bad until this past year. Makes me wonder if he was playing hurt. I also think 1st half 2015 was an aberration- I dare him to prove me wrong in 2016. I still like Polanco a lot. He won't have Dozier's power but I think he can get on base at a higher rate. Overall, I think Dozier is the better player over the next 2-3 years but I'd be willing to gamble on Polanco if you can get a quality catcher or starting pitcher in return for Dozier.
  6. I love this idea! Polanco is already better than 2nd half Dozier. Dozier will probably have another monster first half and then cool off significantly, so you shop him before the trade deadline. The only problem with this is that I think other teams realize Dozier is a fast starter. You have to fool the Nats for this trade to work.
  7. Chattanooga's season is almost finished. Bring up Polanco after the Lookouts win the championship and sit Dozier a few times a week. If you like what you see from Jorge, put Dozier on the trading block in the offseason. I know Jorge's been playing SS, but let's be real- he has a very slim chance of being a good defensive SS. Also, I'm not suggesting the Twins should trade Dozier no matter what. I think they should see what they can get for him. If they do trade him and Jorge can hit .275/.335/.375 (slightly below his minor league career slash line), then it's not much of a downgrade overall. Plus, you get a shiny new prospect or two from the trade.
  8. What is a "Superba"? What a cool nickname!
  9. Personally, I think the Twins have to make this move if they think they have a shot this year. I think they're concerned about adding him to the 40-man roster early, but I their bigger concern is how many innings he would end up pitching if they made a deep playoff run. His career high is 140 and he's at 155 right now so if he gets 4 more starts at 6 innings each for the regular season, then 5 more at 6 innings between ALDS, ALCS, and WS, that's 69 more innings over his previous career high and a 49% increase over last years innings. I've never been one to doubt his abilities, but that's a huge increase. I still say the Twins have to call him up if they want to compete in the postseason.
  10. Replace Walker with Plouffe, then slide Plouffe down to 7th. The way Rosario has been hitting, I would trust him to protect Sano more than anyone else on this team. I like the idea of putting our two hot outfielders next to each other in the lineup. I also like the idea of getting Kepler on the playoff roster, but until he proves he can hit big league pitching, I wouldn't let him bat 3rd. I think I would call him up before September, start him everyday and let his performance dictate where he hits. If he falls flat, stick him on the bench, let Mauer bat 8th and slide everyone else up one spot.
  11. It's not ideal to trade your best prospect either. I was just making a point- if we are going to trade away prospects based on position depth, we shouldn't trade away the franchise altering prospect.
  12. I say we trade these 3 guys. The return won't be as good, but we also won't have to give up as much (not to mention potentially gaining some 40-man flexibility).
  13. Even without knowing much about Jepsen I can say I am not a fan of this trade. Hu was one of the handful of prospects I did not want to lose.
  14. Arcia playing defense http://www.simpsonswallpapers.net/wp-content/uploads/wallpapers/homer_pants_down_stunt_wallpaper_-_1280x800.jpg
  15. TR giving a veteran playing time to try and build up his trade value http://www.simpsonswallpapers.net/wp-content/uploads/wallpapers/homer_pants_down_stunt_wallpaper_-_1280x800.jpg
  16. If this late season surge is a trend, the Twins should bring him up now and take advantage of the hot streak (I'm only half joking).
  17. I've seen this idea on several trade proposals and I have a hard time with this. Hu and Gonsalves are far from untouchable, but the idea that the Twins could just "toss in" two of their fastest rising prospects bothers me. They should only be parted with as the centerpiece of a deal that brings back a quality player.
  18. What has gotten into Turner lately? He's hitting .412 in his last 10 games with 8 walks and 6 strikeouts. I wonder if he's hoping to make a run at Fryer's job.
  19. Can someone teach me how to add an image?
  20. Rich Becker.
  21. I think the Twins should put all of Milone, Pelfrey, Nolasco, and Gibson on the trading block and see what other teams are willing to give. I don't expect to get anything for Nolasco and expect very little for Milone and Pelfrey, but if we can ship one of those three off for some international bonus $ or a low level prospect that won't need to be on the 40-man for a few years, I would pull the trigger. We should be able to replace (or surpass) their expected production with Berrios or another AAA arm. The other potential benefit of a trade is that the Twins could have one less guy on the 40-man roster and at the end of the season so they will be better equipped to protect the guys they need to protect. Regarding Gibson- I wouldn't give him away. I think he would be harder to replace him than the other guys so I'd want a decent prospect or two.
  22. Maybe someone that knows the college game can help me with this question. I have to believe Jay was the best player on his team since he was the #6 pick overall. If he is that talented AND has the potential of being a major league starter (as the FO says he does), why wasn't he starting in college?
  23. Nice video! The thing that really stood out to me is that his release point looks low. Is he going to need to change his mechanics in order to generate a downward plane (as Jeremy mentioned in the article).
  24. June so far: .109/.180/.109 with 11K/4BB Overall: .184/.280/.270 with 38K/21BB His last extra base hit was a homerun on May 27. I think it's fair to say he's in a bit of a slump. Sure hope he comes out of it. What's most alarming to me about this slump is the K/BB rate (I know, small sample size though).
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