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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    His career 3.7 BB per 9 rate and 1.38 WHIP are red flags for me. As are the fact that he is 30 and we are talking about mechanics, control, consistency, can't get LHB out, etc. At what point do we suspect he will click? I don't view this as more than a one year thing and we are not making a run next year. That is probably the bigger issue for me.
  2. tobi0040
    Hughes career ERA in every start outside of the New Yankee stadium was 4.10 or so. By coming to MN, you fix that problem. Hughes was also almost three years younger. Can we fix Masterson's issues? That is debateable. Our track record at doing so is not great. But that doesn't really matter to me as much as how inconsistent Masterson has been. My fear is he pitches well for 3-4 months and then we hand him a three year $45M deal. He has been way too inconsistent to extend him. He also has a good shot at being the 4.50-5.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP guy again and our rotation is terrible again while taking reps from young players.
  3. tobi0040
    I don't understand why this wasn't the strategy in 2011-2013 when we didn't have the young pitchers ready to break through. We signed two guys, Pelfrey and Harden maybe with this in mind. Pelfrey had no upside and Harden had about a .01% chance of being healthy. I think you sign a guy that is a 2-3 year answer, one that is better than what you have or you give reps to the young guys. No in between. This feels very in between to me.
  4. tobi0040
    I guess then injuries did not play a role in 2009 (4.52 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). 2010 (4.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), and 2012 (4.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
  5. tobi0040
    He has had two good years and is 30. Career 4.24 ERA. Mechanics issues. Injury issues. Command issues. You can't trust him on a 3-4-5 year extension if he has a good year here, IMO. And I find it ironic that his BB rate the last two years has been worse than Alex Meyer's in AA and AAA over the same period. But the BB rates are what have kept Meyer from even getting a shot to pitch for the Twins.
  6. tobi0040
    I would just give Ervin a 3 year deal with an option over Masterson or Anderson. Since his age 25 season, he had had just two clunkers in seven years. The other five, 3.49, 3.92, 3.38, 3.24, and 3.95. He has been very healthy as well.
  7. tobi0040
    If the alternative is nothing, sure, bring Anderson on board. I would prefer a guy that is helping this team in 2016 and 2017 though, like Ervin Santana. But if we do sign Anderson, I would like to see a team option for the next year. Something less than the $15M qualifying offer. If we give him one year and somehow he stays healthy and pitches well, he may want a 2-3 year deal. Would we give it to him? He has pitched 205 innings over the last four years. Seems way more risky than a one year team option for say $9-10M. It was a nice article. I do find it encouraging as well that his recent issues have not been arm or shoulder related. I do take issue with the inclusion of Mike Pelfrey in the statement "you could argue all of these guys deserve a chance". He has pitched 176 IP across two seasons for us. I calculate an ERA of 5.55, a WHIP of 1.61 with 5.6 K per 9.
  8. tobi0040
    To be fair though, many teams have no shot at getting an impact player with what they have in the minors. We have at least two guys that could net a nice return.
  9. tobi0040
    I agree people are over-rating Masterson. He will be 30 next year and has had exactly two good full seasons. His career ERA is 4.24. I persronally think his funky delivery is one of the reasons why he is so inconsistent. I think the best case is you sign him, he pitches well, and then you flip him or get compensation when he leaves. There is a decent shot that he is here and stinks up the joint like last year. 5.88 ERA and 5 BB / 9 like you mentioned. In that scenario our rotation is just as bad or worse than it has been. His BB per 9 was actually higher last year than Meyer's was in the minors and that was supposedly why he was not promoted. If he pitches well next year, he has been too inconsistent to warrant even a 3 year extension, IMO.
  10. tobi0040
    I generally like the plan. I am a huge Rasmus guy. Signing him on a 2-3 year deal would be ideal to me. He has put up league average numbers (.751 OPS) through 22-28 seasons. He could stabilize CF and move to a corner when Buxton comes up. Then really force a competition between guys like Hicks/Rosario who otherwise may be handed a spot. I think he may settle for a 1 year deal and I would do that over signing a mid 30's guy. I would prefer a longer term signing than one year for Masterson. I like Ervin Santana. Of the five guys we have penciled in right now for 2015 or penciled in for 2016, plans will change. Guys will get hurt or at least one guy we think will be good will not be good. He would provide a talent upgrade as well, which is needed.
  11. tobi0040
    My big two for relievers/closers, ERA and runs inherited that are allowed to score. Given the nature of 1 run games, WHIP as well. (Cue me beating a dead horse) Rodney was a closer in basically 6 seasons. He has 220 career saves (36 a year). One year he had a 4.40 ERA and had 37 saves. 2 wins and 5 losses. His career ERA is 3.61 which is not great for a reliever.
  12. tobi0040
    That tells me as much about the save stat as it does WAR. Perkings was in 40 save situations and another 20 non-save appearances. He gave up 16 ER but only blew four saves. Granted his ERA was a very good 2.30. But if someone else had an ERA of 3.50 it would only have been 8 more ER. 5 of those would have been in save situations. So maybe another blown save or two at the most. Analysis of the save stat has shown that since creation, closer salaries have skyrocketed but the winning percentage after 8 IP has remained the same. It seems like the Tigers roll with a guy every year who has an ERA in the 4's and ends with 45 saves.
  13. tobi0040
    Use it in moderation and as a data point. I think it does a good job ball-parking relative values. And gives you some scope as to the point that a 70 win team is not the best player or two away from the world series, or it provides some context to free agent signings. Whether a player is actually worth 2.4 WAR or 2.8 WAR is not that important to me. It is not like you can prove or dis-prove it anyway. I also think that Bill James would seem biased here.
  14. tobi0040
    I just think they weren't interested in another long term deal. They owe Justin $16M over two years and he is in line for a nice extension. As is Medlen. They owe BJ $45M over 3 years. They owe Kimbrell $50M over 4 years. They owe Freeman $120M over 7 years They owe Johnson $23M over 3 years They owe Teheran $25M over 5 years They owe Simmons $50M over 5 years
  15. tobi0040
    I think the trade looks a tad lopsided because money was a factor. You swap a guy with one year of control for a guy with four years of control. The Braves have long term contracts all over the place and they replace Ervin's $14M with Shelby's much less.
  16. tobi0040
    I actually view Plouffe's value as higher than most. But I think it is risky to move him until you know Sano is a 3B. It is kind of a catch 22, you may fetch something nice for him given the lack of talent at 3B. But in doing so you might be looking for a 3B, which is very hard to find.
  17. tobi0040
    With so little tape on the guy, stats with the others at the same age in the same league is the best out there. He doesn't appear to be like the others. This reeks of agent hype and teams trying to get into the market right before the bubble popped to me. I hope the Twins fake an interest or stay out of it, not that the market will think we are going to offer $100M.
  18. tobi0040
    I think the motivating factor for the Braves was money. I am guessing they know what Heyward is looking for and Shelby has 3-4 years of control left.
  19. tobi0040
    An OPS of .830 in the major leagues for Tomas does not seem conservative. He posted an OPS of .849 in Cuba. Here are the numbers Abreu put up in Cuba: 2009 - 1.377 OPS 2010 - 1.583 OPS 2011 - 1.379 OPS 2012 - 1.270 OPS Not to mention Cespedes had way better numbers at the same age in the same league and he has been a sub .740 OPS guy the last two years. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/free-agent-profile-yasmany-tomas.html http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Jos%C3%A9_Abreu
  20. tobi0040
    Kemp has 5-100 left. I would inherit that deal all day before giving Tomas 6-100.
  21. tobi0040
    Personally, I would be excited that we participcated in a bidding war and won and excited that it was not a crazy price. But again we scored the 5th number of runs last year. Our rotation has been bottom three for 3-4 years now. Our OF defense is awful. We have a ton of OF prospects 0-2 years away. Give Ervin Santana 4-60 and I would be more excited.
  22. tobi0040
    It is true that he is not the prospect Abreu was....but in hindsight Abreu should have went for well over $100M. Everyone is chasing the dream now. I bet he gets $90-100M. Hope not by us.
  23. tobi0040
    I think committing $90-100M on a corner OF is really losing focus on what our problems are. Pitching and OF defense. Tomas does not help either. We should be able to sign any number of guys that can help us defensively and we should be able to platoon a number of guys and get adequate offense. Hicks has a career .750 OPS against lefties for example. If we are going to drop $100M, lets sign a pitcher.
  24. tobi0040
    A trade was talked about on here for Heyward, of course the proposals that were thrown around were slightly less than Shelby Miller.
  25. tobi0040
    Rasmus is coming off seasons of .840 and .735. Rasmus career Dwar is +2.4 and those innings have been almost exclusively as a CF. So if we are comparing Rasmus to Tomas defensively, I am taking the guy that can play an adequate CF over the guy whose corner OF defense has been quesioned. The point of the comp is that offensively I think they will be in the same ballpark, defensively I would give Rasmus the edge.....but Tomas is going to get $100M.
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