Jim Crikket

I'm not sure if you're referring to the Victorino return or the Pence return, but either way, my answer is "no". The Twins don't need volume, they need quality. They have plenty of mid level prospects who may or may not turn in to serviceable infielders or back of the rotation starters. At this point, if they aren't able to get high-ceiling starting pitching, regardless of current level of play, there's no point in trading away a starting position player with several years left on a reasonable contract.

The likelihood of OVERpaying isn't any better, but teams that think they may be able to improve in 2013 may kick the tires on Span (Mariners, Cubs, etc.). But you're right... I just don't think many teams will part with top pitching prospects for anyone, so expecting TR to make that kind of deal is a bit unrealistic.

I don't think any team who's just in contention for a one-game WC play-in game will give away top pitching talent. Only those teams contending for Division titles will even consider it.

I guess this was my point (made much better than I managed to). I'm not seeing teams willing to give up top pitching prospects in any deals so far, so I'm not sure why we should think someone will for Span today. If that's the case, there's no reason not to wait until the offseason to see what the market is then.

Agree. But I'm just not seeing anyone giving up high-ceiling young pitching for anyone. Have I missed something? Looks like teams are not letting go of that kind of guy.

Looking at what the Dodgers gave up for Victorino (from Tim Dierkes MLBTR), let me ask this... if this is the going rate for a CF and is comparable to what TR is getting offered for Span, do you take it? (Personally... I don't think so): Martin, the Dodgers' first-round draft pick from 2008, owns a 3.58 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and 0.38 HR/9 in 118 Double-A innings this year. Drafted as a raw high schooler, Baseball America ranked Martin 17th on their Dodgers prospect list prior to the season. They wrote that Martin "maintains the ceiling of a No. 2 starter but has a long way to go." Lindblom, 25, has a 3.02 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.70 HR/9, and 38% groundball rate in 47 2/3 relief innings this year, so he's had some issues with the longball. He doesn't have much big league service time, and is technically under team control through 2017. Drafted in the second round in '08, Lindblom was once considered one of the team's top prospects. Lindblom was made more expendable by the Dodgers' acquisition of League from the Mariners last night.

I'm really not too concerned with whether the Twins win 78 games this year or 58. At this point, their final record is immaterial. August should be about getting marginal players enough innings to fairly evaluate whether they should be part of the plans for 2013 and September should be about giving some young players some opportunities to show they should get some consideration next year, too. If that means you lose more games than you would with your A line up out there every day, so be it. I know losing 100+ games will just give some folks more ammunition to blast the front office and field management, but the decision makers will know it was still the right approach.

Frankly, there is NOTHING Ryan can do that will satisfy some people, short of pulling off highway robbery deals. If he makes deals, he isn't getting enough... or the right guys... or the best guys... or... or... or. If he makes no deals, he's a bum. By the way. the great MacPhail has pretty much been considered MacFAIL by the fan base of every organization he's gone to since he left the Twins. I'm constantly amazed that some people think the answer to every challenge is to trade/fire everyone and then magically the team will go from sellers at the deadline to the World Series without having to bother first working their way back in to contending status. If only all the world's problems could be solved this way.

On the nose, Seth! People get some kind of "fever" at the end of July and think everything has to be done NOW. It's simply not true. The reason you make a big deal now, as a seller, is that the deadline is when contending teams tend to overpay for talent. If you're the GM of a seller, you do exactly what TR is doing... wait for someone to offer to overpay for your guys. If you don't get a home run of an offer, there's no reason to make a deal right now. The offseason will see more teams interested in improving for 2013 when they can all start fresh. (Think the Mariners and Cubs won't be interested in hitters during the offseason?) I also don't see why it should be depressing if TR indicates a belief the team can be built to compete within the Division in 2013. That doesn't preclude improving enough to go deeper in 2014 when you'd hope some of the Twins prospects are closer to stepping up. You're more likely to go deeper in 2014 if you've at least rebuilt a sense of competitiveness in the clubhouse in 2013. There's simply no rush to dismantle your offense just because your pitching needs improvement. If TR isn't allowed to spend the money to improve pitching in the offseason, THEN fans can legitimately complain (as we did last offseason for the same reason).

Yet 90% of the people around here think Terry Ryan should have brought in more value in trade for Liriano because of HIS numbers since May.

Yeah, I'd have dealt him right after that 15K performance, but Oxtung is right, the "rumors" at the time didn't have much that indicated he was highly valued. Also, the legitimate rotation upgrades like Greinke were still on the market, so teams that were in on him (like Chicago, for instance) weren't ready to settle for Liriano. Ryan indicated other teams were still interested, but if what he got from Chicago was indicative of what others were offering, there wasn't anything being offered that Liriano fans would have felt was enough. I guess I would restate my quetsion from the article... if you were a GM, what would YOU offer for two months of Liriano? After Frankie's implosion in Chicago last week, I'm surprised Ryan got what he did.

Yeah, obviously I'm not surprised at the gnashing of teeth over this. I personally think Liriano's one bad game last week DID negatively affect the offers Ryan was getting and one good game Sunday wouldn't have helped. That implosion put to bed any misconception scouts might have had that Liriano was "fixed" during his exile to the bullpen. Same old Frankie... as likely to blow up as blow away hitters. I get that so many fans tend to overvalue their favorite players, but what I don't understand is the argument that the Twins should have offered this guy $12+ mil for next year. Especially when those arguments come from people who also claim the Twins need to rebuild for 2014 and beyond. Of course, I can't see the logic in risking the $12+ million on Liriano, regardless of whether you think 2013 is a wash or not. Talk about throwing money down a well.

Finally... someone who gets it. After the big turd Liriano laid last week, NOBODY was going to give up anything worthwhile for him. The Twins couldn't afford to take the chance that he might take the $12.4 million qualifying offer (which he almost certainly WOULD, unless he happened to pitch lights-out the rest of the season).

While I agree that people around here are likely to be underwhelmed by whatever Ryan ends up getting in return for Liriano, I would also just point out that he's not the only pitcher capable of a clunker now and then. Look at the list of pitchers being dealt, from Greinke at the top, through Dempster, Garza, Rodriguez, Johnson... there's a reason those guys have either been dealt or are on the market and that's the fact that all of them come with warts. None is a guaranteed great performance when he goes to the mound this year.

Now you're just letting facts get in the way of a rant that can only be backed up by exaggeration.

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com Some who follow the Twins minor league affiliates were at least somewhat surprised this past week when the Twins announced they had renewed their Player Development Contract (PDC) with AA affiliate New Britain CT. The Rock Cats will remain the home of the Twins' AA players for at least the next two years. PDCs are entered in to for an even number of years, so two years is the shortest contract the two organizations could have agreed upon. I guess you could say the extension isn't exactly indicative of the two sides making a mutual long term commitment. The Rock Cats have had a pretty good year, at least compared to their parent organization. Through Saturday, they had a 56-44 record that the Twins themselves should be jealous of and were just 2.5 games behind the Eastern Division leading Trenton Thunder. They also had a 4.5 game lead over the third place Reading Phillies. That's important to the Rock Cats because the top two teams in each division qualify for the Eastern League playoffs. Of course, from the perspective of the parent organization (and most of their fans), winning games and making minor league playoffs is of secondary concern. The primary purpose of the minor leagues is to develop talent that can eventually be of use at the Major League level. But if you don't think winning games plays a role when it comes to renewing PDCs, you clearly do not live in a community with a minor league ballclub. To the owners and management of those minor league teams, who rely almost exclusively on putting butts in the seats in order to make financial ends meet, winning does matter. To that end, fielding a competitive team in a PDC renewal year is certainly not a bad idea if you want to maintain your relationship with a community. I don't think it's at all a coincidence that New Britain has gone from perhaps the most likely Twins affiliate to explore other options to being the first affiliate to sign on for another two-year term within the time it took to put a team on the field capable of being 12 games over .500 as they near the final month of their season. But the Cats are not the only Twins affiliate with an expiring PDC after this season. The Twins' agreements are also up with their AAA affiliate in Rochester NY, their Class A-Advanced affiliate in Ft. Myers FL and their Class A affiliate in Beloit WI. It's pretty safe to say that the Ft. Myers Miracle will be remaining affiliated with the Twins, since they're a “complex affiliate” that calls the Twins' Spring Training complex their home, but the other two situations are not nearly as locked down. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/RedWingsLogo.jpg The Rochester situation is interesting. The Red Wings and their fans take a lot of pride in their team and they don't suffer poor results well. And suffer they have, lately. Both in 2010 and 2011, the Wings were downright awful. They were so bad in 2010 that a vocal part of their fan base were upset that the decision makers signed on for another two years with the Twins. Red Wings management were rewarded for their loyalty with a second consecutive 90+ loss season in 2011. Given the lower number of games played in the minor leagues, that's pretty comparable to two consecutive 99+ loss seasons at the Big League level. (Sound familiar to anyone?) The Red Wings got off to another poor start in 2012, so you can imagine how local sentiment for dumping the Twins has grown. A recent hot streak had the Red Wings up to a .500 record at 50-50 through Saturday, but they were still in fifth place, 5.5 games behind the North Division leading Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees (who, coincidentally, have been playing many of their “home” games at Rochester's Frontier Field while their own home stadium undergoes major renovations this summer). They were also five games out of the International League's Wild Card spot. That may not seem like a lot, but that still left five teams they would have to pass to make the IL playoffs as the Wild Card. Nonetheless, the Twins have made an effort to field a more competitive team in Rochester this year and they brought in a new manager, Gene Glynn, who's more popular with the locals. Is it enough to keep the Twins and Red Wings tied together for at least two more years? Maybe. There simply is not usually a lot of movement of affiliations at the AAA level and both parties have to be a little careful about rushing to end the arrangement. Either (or both) could end up finding themselves in even worse situations. Beloit is a bit of a different situation. Beloit would do cartwheels to retain their PDC affiliation with the Twins. The Snappers are not off to a very good start in the second half of their Midwest League season, but they finished second in the Western Division in the first half, which assures them a spot in the MWL playoffs. (MWL seasons are divided in to two halves, with the division winners and runners-up in each half qualifying for the playoffs.) But on-field success isn't the main reason Beloit's anxious to re-up with the Twins. Beloit, while being the home of MWL executive offices, has what are widely considered the worst facilities in the league. Their stadium has been in need of replacement for years and the organization has simply not been able to get public support to do what's necessary. Two years ago, plans were pitched for a new facility but, like prior attempts, they were never approved. Some reports now indicate the club may have better luck with a proposal to renovate. Their stadium issues would likely make attracting a new MLB affiliate challenging, so say the least. But would poor facilities be enough motivation for the Twins to walk away from their eight-year relationship with Beloit? In a word, yes. In fact, the lack of progress on an appropriate stadium were reported to be the reason the Milwaukee Brewers opted to move their MWL affiliation out of Beloit after the 2004 season. Major League teams do, in fact, care about the facilities that their young prospects call home. They want to make sure the fields are maintained in a first rate manner and that clubhouses and training facilities are at least adequate, if not well above that standard. Unlike the situation with AAA organizations, it's far more common for Class A organizations to switch affiliations. In fact, reports I've seen indicate 12 of the 16 Midwest League teams have expiring PDCs after the 2012 season and Twins senior director of minor league operations Jim Rantz told the Pioneer Press that he expects 8-9 of those teams to actually make changes. I'll be surprised if the Twins aren't one of those teams looking for another MWL home. I've made no secret of my wish that the Twins hook up with my local team, the Cedar Rapids Kernels, but there's no assurance the Kernels will enter the pool of teams open to exploring a new PDC parner. The Kernels have been an Angels affiliate for 20 years and although it's not unusual for AA and AAA relationships to run that long and even much longer, the Kernels and Angels have the longest running relationship in the Midwest League. While the Kernels haven't had a bunch of Championship titles to show for the relationship, the Angels have been pretty good about sending most of their top prospects through Cedar Rapids for at least half a season. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/DiPotoNelson-874x1024.jpg Kernels GM Doug Nelson (right) chats with Angels GM Jerry Dipoto at a recent Kernels game Still, according to the Cedar Rapids Gazette, there's a growing sentiment among the fan base in Cedar Rapids (and, rumor has it, among some of the club's governing Board of Directors, which serves as essentially the “owners” of the Kernels) that it's time for a change. There's a sense that it would be nice to have an affiliation with one of the midwestern MLB ballclubs, so local fans could better follow the prospects that come through town all the way to the Big Club. Of course, the fact that the Kernels finished 7th out of the eight-team Western Division of the MWL in the first half of the season and have dropped in to the cellar in the second half might have something to do with the fan sentiment, too. It would make sense from the Twins' perspective, as well, in the following ways: Cedar Rapids is the closest MWL community to the Twins Cities. No, players do not routinely get called up from Class A to the Twins, so that's not an issue. But it's not at all unusual for MWL teams to be used for rehab assignments by their nearby Big League affiliates and front office types do routinely make trips. (In fact, there have been almost annual Terry Ryan sightings in Cedar Rapids, both during his time as a "senior adviser" and as Twins GM.) Though CR isn't THAT much closer to Target Field than Beloit, if you've ever had cause to try to fly between those locations, there's a significant difference. Veterans Memorial Stadium is just over a decade old. It could no doubt use some remodeling, but it's a far cry better than what Twins prospects currently call home in Beloit. Not only that, but Perfect Game (the national amateur scouting service) training facilities are about a block away from the stadium and my understanding is that Kernels players have access to PG's facilities, perhaps as part of the naming rights deal the organizations have (the formal name of the ballpark is "Perfect Game Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium"). All of Iowa is considered part of the Twins home market, yet FSN isn't carried by the primary cable providers in Eastern Iowa. Nor is there even a radio station in the area that carries Twins broadcasts. The reason is that, while there's a solid, loyal base of Twins fans in the area, that base is not as large as it could be... or as it should be. A Twins affiliation with the Kernels would almost certainly change this situation as Kernels fans become Twins fans. The Twins would, over time, see far more group sales from this area as fans travel up to see former Kernels at Target Field. It makes sense for both organizations. So why don't the Twins and Kernels just sit down and come to an agreement? Well, as is often the case when you're talking about professional baseball rules, it's really just not quite that easy. Under the rules of MLB and Minor League Baseball (MiLB), existing affiliated teams can negotiate extensions any time they're mutually inclined to do so, just as the Twins and Rock Cats did recently. But if either party to an existing PDC wants to explore other options, they must wait until a specified window of time to declare their desire to explore other options. New PDC agreements can then be negotiated and entered in to beginning September 16 (any private or public statements about possible interest in another affiliate prior to that date earns hefty fines for the clubs deemed guilty of such "tampering"). Clubs have just two weeks to find a new dance partner, however, because agreements need to be executed by September 30. After that date, any MLB or MiLB clubs without an agreement will be matched up and assigned an affiliation by agreement between the MLB Commisioner and the MiLB President. (Honestly, how many of you would want Bud Selig to be deciding who your affiliate would be?) Nobody wants that to happen, but it's not all that rare, either. While the Twins would likely have no problem finding a soft landing spot for their Class A affiliation, the AAA situation could be more dicey. Then again, the relatively small number of MLB teams likely to look for a new AAA partner could make the Red Wings' management group think twice about whether they can really improve their situation or whether they might end up with an even worse result than sticking with the Twins for another couple of years. After all, in theory, some of those Rock Cats that are having a successful season in New Britain this year should find their way to Rochester next season, right? So the question is whether the good folks who run the Red Wings are willing to take that chance. http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a39/CapitalBabs/Baseball/Steve/RyanJune2012d.jpg Twins GM Terry Ryan during a recent visit to Cedar Rapids In the end, I'll guess that Rochester and the Twins extend their agreement for another two years. I'll also go with my heart, rather than my head, and predict a Twins move to Cedar Rapids for their Class A affiliation. I readily admit that there's at best a 50-50 chance that the Kernels will end their relationship with the Angles (Angels GM Jerry Dipoto was in CR last week to make a pitch to continue their affiliation) and it's no sure-thing that the Twins would step in even if the Kernels and Angels divorce. That makes it far less than 50-50 that my wishes come true, but right now I'll take those odds. - JC

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com Some who follow the Twins minor league affiliates were at least somewhat surprised this past week when the Twins announced they had renewed their Player Development Contract (PDC) with AA affiliate New Britain CT. The Rock Cats will remain the home of the Twins' AA players for at least the next two years. PDCs are entered in to for an even number of years, so two years is the shortest contract the two organizations could have agreed upon. I guess you could say the extension isn't exactly indicative of the two sides making a mutual long term commitment. The Rock Cats have had a pretty good year, at least compared to their parent organization. Through Saturday, they had a 56-44 record that the Twins themselves should be jealous of and were just 2.5 games behind the Eastern Division leading Trenton Thunder. They also had a 4.5 game lead over the third place Reading Phillies. That's important to the Rock Cats because the top two teams in each division qualify for the Eastern League playoffs. Of course, from the perspective of the parent organization (and most of their fans), winning games and making minor league playoffs is of secondary concern. The primary purpose of the minor leagues is to develop talent that can eventually be of use at the Major League level. But if you don't think winning games plays a role when it comes to renewing PDCs, you clearly do not live in a community with a minor league ballclub. To the owners and management of those minor league teams, who rely almost exclusively on putting butts in the seats in order to make financial ends meet, winning does matter. To that end, fielding a competitive team in a PDC renewal year is certainly not a bad idea if you want to maintain your relationship with a community. I don't think it's at all a coincidence that New Britain has gone from perhaps the most likely Twins affiliate to explore other options to being the first affiliate to sign on for another two-year term within the time it took to put a team on the field capable of being 12 games over .500 as they near the final month of their season. But the Cats are not the only Twins affiliate with an expiring PDC after this season. The Twins' agreements are also up with their AAA affiliate in Rochester NY, their Class A-Advanced affiliate in Ft. Myers FL and their Class A affiliate in Beloit WI. It's pretty safe to say that the Ft. Myers Miracle will be remaining affiliated with the Twins, since they're a “complex affiliate” that calls the Twins' Spring Training complex their home, but the other two situations are not nearly as locked down. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/RedWingsLogo.jpg The Rochester situation is interesting. The Red Wings and their fans take a lot of pride in their team and they don't suffer poor results well. And suffer they have, lately. Both in 2010 and 2011, the Wings were downright awful. They were so bad in 2010 that a vocal part of their fan base were upset that the decision makers signed on for another two years with the Twins. Red Wings management were rewarded for their loyalty with a second consecutive 90+ loss season in 2011. Given the lower number of games played in the minor leagues, that's pretty comparable to two consecutive 99+ loss seasons at the Big League level. (Sound familiar to anyone?) The Red Wings got off to another poor start in 2012, so you can imagine how local sentiment for dumping the Twins has grown. A recent hot streak had the Red Wings up to a .500 record at 50-50 through Saturday, but they were still in fifth place, 5.5 games behind the North Division leading Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees (who, coincidentally, have been playing many of their “home” games at Rochester's Frontier Field while their own home stadium undergoes major renovations this summer). They were also five games out of the International League's Wild Card spot. That may not seem like a lot, but that still left five teams they would have to pass to make the IL playoffs as the Wild Card. Nonetheless, the Twins have made an effort to field a more competitive team in Rochester this year and they brought in a new manager, Gene Glynn, who's more popular with the locals. Is it enough to keep the Twins and Red Wings tied together for at least two more years? Maybe. There simply is not usually a lot of movement of affiliations at the AAA level and both parties have to be a little careful about rushing to end the arrangement. Either (or both) could end up finding themselves in even worse situations. Beloit is a bit of a different situation. Beloit would do cartwheels to retain their PDC affiliation with the Twins. The Snappers are not off to a very good start in the second half of their Midwest League season, but they finished second in the Western Division in the first half, which assures them a spot in the MWL playoffs. (MWL seasons are divided in to two halves, with the division winners and runners-up in each half qualifying for the playoffs.) But on-field success isn't the main reason Beloit's anxious to re-up with the Twins. Beloit, while being the home of MWL executive offices, has what are widely considered the worst facilities in the league. Their stadium has been in need of replacement for years and the organization has simply not been able to get public support to do what's necessary. Two years ago, plans were pitched for a new facility but, like prior attempts, they were never approved. Some reports now indicate the club may have better luck with a proposal to renovate. Their stadium issues would likely make attracting a new MLB affiliate challenging, so say the least. But would poor facilities be enough motivation for the Twins to walk away from their eight-year relationship with Beloit? In a word, yes. In fact, the lack of progress on an appropriate stadium were reported to be the reason the Milwaukee Brewers opted to move their MWL affiliation out of Beloit after the 2004 season. Major League teams do, in fact, care about the facilities that their young prospects call home. They want to make sure the fields are maintained in a first rate manner and that clubhouses and training facilities are at least adequate, if not well above that standard. Unlike the situation with AAA organizations, it's far more common for Class A organizations to switch affiliations. In fact, reports I've seen indicate 12 of the 16 Midwest League teams have expiring PDCs after the 2012 season and Twins senior director of minor league operations Jim Rantz told the Pioneer Press that he expects 8-9 of those teams to actually make changes. I'll be surprised if the Twins aren't one of those teams looking for another MWL home. I've made no secret of my wish that the Twins hook up with my local team, the Cedar Rapids Kernels, but there's no assurance the Kernels will enter the pool of teams open to exploring a new PDC parner. The Kernels have been an Angels affiliate for 20 years and although it's not unusual for AA and AAA relationships to run that long and even much longer, the Kernels and Angels have the longest running relationship in the Midwest League. While the Kernels haven't had a bunch of Championship titles to show for the relationship, the Angels have been pretty good about sending most of their top prospects through Cedar Rapids for at least half a season. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/DiPotoNelson-874x1024.jpg Kernels GM Doug Nelson (right) chats with Angels GM Jerry Dipoto at a recent Kernels game Still, according to the Cedar Rapids Gazette, there's a growing sentiment among the fan base in Cedar Rapids (and, rumor has it, among some of the club's governing Board of Directors, which serves as essentially the “owners” of the Kernels) that it's time for a change. There's a sense that it would be nice to have an affiliation with one of the midwestern MLB ballclubs, so local fans could better follow the prospects that come through town all the way to the Big Club. Of course, the fact that the Kernels finished 7th out of the eight-team Western Division of the MWL in the first half of the season and have dropped in to the cellar in the second half might have something to do with the fan sentiment, too. It would make sense from the Twins' perspective, as well, in the following ways: Cedar Rapids is the closest MWL community to the Twins Cities. No, players do not routinely get called up from Class A to the Twins, so that's not an issue. But it's not at all unusual for MWL teams to be used for rehab assignments by their nearby Big League affiliates and front office types do routinely make trips. (In fact, there have been almost annual Terry Ryan sightings in Cedar Rapids, both during his time as a "senior adviser" and as Twins GM.) Though CR isn't THAT much closer to Target Field than Beloit, if you've ever had cause to try to fly between those locations, there's a significant difference. Veterans Memorial Stadium is just over a decade old. It could no doubt use some remodeling, but it's a far cry better than what Twins prospects currently call home in Beloit. Not only that, but Perfect Game (the national amateur scouting service) training facilities are about a block away from the stadium and my understanding is that Kernels players have access to PG's facilities, perhaps as part of the naming rights deal the organizations have (the formal name of the ballpark is "Perfect Game Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium"). All of Iowa is considered part of the Twins home market, yet FSN isn't carried by the primary cable providers in Eastern Iowa. Nor is there even a radio station in the area that carries Twins broadcasts. The reason is that, while there's a solid, loyal base of Twins fans in the area, that base is not as large as it could be... or as it should be. A Twins affiliation with the Kernels would almost certainly change this situation as Kernels fans become Twins fans. The Twins would, over time, see far more group sales from this area as fans travel up to see former Kernels at Target Field. It makes sense for both organizations. So why don't the Twins and Kernels just sit down and come to an agreement? Well, as is often the case when you're talking about professional baseball rules, it's really just not quite that easy. Under the rules of MLB and Minor League Baseball (MiLB), existing affiliated teams can negotiate extensions any time they're mutually inclined to do so, just as the Twins and Rock Cats did recently. But if either party to an existing PDC wants to explore other options, they must wait until a specified window of time to declare their desire to explore other options. New PDC agreements can then be negotiated and entered in to beginning September 16 (any private or public statements about possible interest in another affiliate prior to that date earns hefty fines for the clubs deemed guilty of such "tampering"). Clubs have just two weeks to find a new dance partner, however, because agreements need to be executed by September 30. After that date, any MLB or MiLB clubs without an agreement will be matched up and assigned an affiliation by agreement between the MLB Commisioner and the MiLB President. (Honestly, how many of you would want Bud Selig to be deciding who your affiliate would be?) Nobody wants that to happen, but it's not all that rare, either. While the Twins would likely have no problem finding a soft landing spot for their Class A affiliation, the AAA situation could be more dicey. Then again, the relatively small number of MLB teams likely to look for a new AAA partner could make the Red Wings' management group think twice about whether they can really improve their situation or whether they might end up with an even worse result than sticking with the Twins for another couple of years. After all, in theory, some of those Rock Cats that are having a successful season in New Britain this year should find their way to Rochester next season, right? So the question is whether the good folks who run the Red Wings are willing to take that chance. http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a39/CapitalBabs/Baseball/Steve/RyanJune2012d.jpg Twins GM Terry Ryan during a recent visit to Cedar Rapids In the end, I'll guess that Rochester and the Twins extend their agreement for another two years. I'll also go with my heart, rather than my head, and predict a Twins move to Cedar Rapids for their Class A affiliation. I readily admit that there's at best a 50-50 chance that the Kernels will end their relationship with the Angles (Angels GM Jerry Dipoto was in CR last week to make a pitch to continue their affiliation) and it's no sure-thing that the Twins would step in even if the Kernels and Angels divorce. That makes it far less than 50-50 that my wishes come true, but right now I'll take those odds. - JC

Minnesota missed out on an opportunity to get MWL teams a few years ago. Communities in Illinois, Michigan and Ohio started building new stadiums when smaller communities in Iowa and neighboring areas weren't willing to do so. Several teams moved east. If Rochester, Albert Lea, maybe La Crosse WI, had made a move together, the MWL wouldn't have shifted east. Now, it would be difficult to get MWL teams anywhere in MN.

The longer things go without news of a renewal of existing agreements, the more likely it is that there will be changes. From what I've read, organizations are free to negotiate extensions any time with existing partners, but teams can't begin talking to potential new affiliates until mid September. If the Twins so much as hint that they'd be interested in another specific community before then, they risk a tampering fine of up to $500K. Likewise, if a minor league organization says anything about being interested in aligning with another specific team before the allowed date, they can be fined up to $100,000. Are there backchannel communications? I would guess it does happen, but obviously officials on both ends have to be cautious. Teams don't have a lot of time to come to agreements once mid September rolls around, however. Any teams that haven't come to agreements with an affiliate partner by the end of September will be assigned a partner by MLB and MiLB officials in the first week of October. All existing minor league teams in affiliate leagues are guaranteed to have an affiliation. All of this means you probably won't be hearing anything at all from executives of the Twins, any of their existing affiliates or any prospective new affiliates before September unless it's another renewal announcement.

The Twins have renewed their Player Development Contract with the Class AA New Britain Rock Cats, but both Rochester (AAA) and Beloit (A) are up for renewal, as well. The time is approaching when teams declare whether they wish to investigate new affiliations and there's no shortage of speculation concerning whether the Rochester and Beloit agreements will be renewed. Here in Cedar Rapids, where the local Class A Kernels have been affiliated with the Angels for 20 years, there's growing sentiment for a change to a closer MLB franchise. http://thegazette.com/2012/07/21/locals-express-their-opinions-on-what-kernels-should-do-with-pdc/

I was at the Kernels game in Cedar Rapids last night. So was Angels GM Jerry Dipoto. Seems he heard through the grapevine that the Kernels were considering declaring themselves open to a new affiliation. Dipoto's organization has done very little relationship building with the people who run CR since he took the Angels job, so his visit may be too little too late. More than one source has told me the Twins have reached out through back channels to indicate they're interested in a discussion if CR does go in to the pool. Not that distance is a primary concern for your Class A team, but CR is the closest existing MWL location to the Twin Cities. It would be a good fit for both organizations. I'm hearing 12 of the 16 MWL teams have expiring agreements this offseason, so Rantz's estimate of 8-9 MWL affiliation changes sounds about right.

MLB Trade Rumors has the information on the CBA compensation rules. So... for example... IF the Twins don't trade Liriano and they DO make him a qualifying offer, which he turns down, then the Twins get a sandwich pick. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume Liriano is the only FA that gets a qualifying offer, making it the 31st pick of the draft. If Liriano signs with the Angels, the Angels would forfeit their 1st round pick, but it wouldn't be awarded to anyone. So the Twins' sandwich pick moves up to pick #30. But if Liriano signs with the Astros (yeah, I know... but go with me here), the Astros' 1st round pick would be protected since it's in the top 10, but they would lose their 2nd rounder instead. Thus the Twins' sandwich pick remains the 31st overall.

Exactly. His new team won't have the option of offering a "qualifying" arbitration figure and getting that sandwich pick if he turns it down. Also, he doesn't have to "prove" he deserves a long term contract. Heading in to FA, all he has to do is prove that he throws left handed, can strike people out at a high rate at times and can pass a physical. With those criteria met, someone will overpay for him. It probably shouldn't be the Twins. On the other hand, if Liriano were on another team and hitting free agency this year, he's probably exactly the kind of pitcher a lot of Twins fans would be urging Terry Ryan to roll the dice and take a chance on. The fact that we've all lived through the low-lights of his career up close and personal makes many of us less likely to want to continue doing so. I also don't see why his agent would listen to an extension offer right now. Then again, I don't know why Cole Hamels' agent would either and it looks like that may happen. Of course it also looks like the Phillies may overpay to get that extension done.

It won't be much, of course, but I don't believe Valencia is totally void of value on the market. There are a number of factors that go in to establishing a player's trade value. Ability to excel at the game of baseball at the MLB level is certainly at the top of the list, but it's not the only factor. Valencia has MLB experience and has at least some history of moderate success at that level. He's also under team control for a number of years yet, so it isn't going to cost a team a ton of money to see if he can help them out. Valencia won't bring MLB ready pitching help. In fact, he won't bring much more than a moderate organization player in return if he's traded by himself. But one-for-one trades aren't the only trades made. It's probably more likely that he's included in a deal involving, say, Span or Liriano for example, that might induce a trade partner to give up a slightly higher level prospect than they would for one of those players alone. If the Twins believe Plouffe is going to stick at 3B (and why wouldn't they, at this point?), there's no future in the organization for Valencia at all. They aren't working him at other positions in Rochester and they have a couple other AAAA level 3Bs down there that can be called up in the event of injury. I think they'll include him in some kind of deal that gives him an opportunity to get back to the Bigs elsewhere. Valencia has made comments that he's trying to prove himself to 29 other teams in addition to the Twins. Ryan and Gardy have mentioned that they're getting good reports on Valencia from Rochester, but Ryan also said Plouffe is the full time 3B and they aren't going to have Valencia try other positions in Rochester. Add it all up and I get the feeling the Twins have possibly even told Valencia that they're going to try to trade him somewhere that he will have a better opportunity.