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launchingthrees

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Everything posted by launchingthrees

  1. launchingthrees
    May and Meyer were acquired by trading former 1st round picks who turned into good players. Either way, this isn't subjective. It's already been solved and getting the top pick will generate about 16 more wins than the 30th pick on average. Later round picks have little value Bottoming out for 2-3 years is now more than ever the optimal strategy for rebuilding. The Changing Value of Draft Picks | FanGraphs Baseball The first pick in any given draft is insanely valuable. The next few picks are pretty great too. It falls off in a hurry, though. When Sky Andrecheck (now with the Indians, by the way) did this analysis back in 2009, he had the #1 pick producing an average of +20 WAR, but the #10 pick was just at +6 WAR, while the #30 pick was only +4 WAR, and then every pick after that leveled off pretty substantially,
  2. launchingthrees
    You're using a list dominated by 1st round picks, and players acquired by trading 1st round picks to illustrate that you don't need high draft picks to succeed? Yeah that makes sense.
  3. launchingthrees
    There's no point. Somebody put in work w/r to your assumptions about the available free agents last offseason and you couldn't grasp it. It's pretty obvious your position is defend the FO even when the data refutes your stated position. That's fine. It's how a lot of diehards think. It's just not worth more discussion beyond this. Thelev, You're doing the lords work. On the other hand this is why the games are still beatable.
  4. launchingthrees
    Awesome. I was going to do something like this but was pretty sure he'd just shift the goalposts again so i didn't bother.
  5. launchingthrees
    I'm more pessimistic on the twins chances in 2013/2014 than most so I tend to prefer a more cautious approach shooting for a 2015/2016 callup.
  6. launchingthrees
    To call what this group does analysis is generous It's mostly rationalizing, not understanding statistics(awesome ERA W-L comparisons in the pitcher thread). I mean i understand the twins defending their payroll but for consumers to take that line is pretty bizarre. Cutting payroll from 110m-76m because of weak free agent classes is laughable.
  7. launchingthrees
    Meh I think it's good to out the front office apologists whenever possible. The more people who see the type of dissonance that comes with defending a 70m payroll the better. The FO gets away with spending 35% of revenue because the handful of misinformed fans claiming that spending more doesn't equate to wins. I mean today someone claimed spending makes the team worse. How does that thought process even exist in 2013 with all the data available to us?
  8. launchingthrees
    You said "This crop seemed particularly prone to regression." So what were you using to project regression during the offseason when the decision to sign or not to sign was made? Otherwise it's just hindsight bias.
  9. launchingthrees
    Yep, Unfortunately instead of saying "we have a playoff team at 70 million/year in 2015. Lets spend and try to put together a world series team" they'll say "we have a playoff team at 70 million/year. There's no reason to try to get better"
  10. launchingthrees
    Show your work. What are you using to project regression? Saying it doesn't make it so. Your posts are filled with really poor analysis and a handful of biases.
  11. launchingthrees
    Cite?
  12. launchingthrees
    Good post. The twins are still in the dark age. I understand fans that can't understand the more complex side of analytics. On the other hand a MLB team not getting it is quite troubling.
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