Cody Schoenmann

you are the one who condescendingly told me to calm down and read my data more closely. no reason to throw rocks and hide your hand.

just put the fries in the bag bro

28-to-23 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 1/3 innings pitched. I just fixed it. My bad.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter Signed out of Cuba by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2020 International Free Agent class, Kendry Rojas quickly progressed through Toronto’s minor-league system, jumping from starting his 2022 campaign in Single-A to earning a promotion to Triple-A in July 2025. Kendry Rojas Age: 23 (DOB: 11/26/02) 2025 Stats (A, Double-A, Triple-A): 69 innings pitched, 4.70 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 28.8% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate ETA: 2026 2025 Ranking: NR National Top 100 Rankings FAN: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | TJ: NR | ESPN: NR After making just one start at Triple-A Buffalo, the then-22-year-old was traded alongside left-handed hitting outfielder Alan Roden to the Minnesota Twins for right-handed reliever Louis Varland and first baseman Ty France. Similar to what Toronto did with Simeon Woods Richardson in 2021, many believe the organization aggressively promoted Rojas to inflate his trade stock right before the trade deadline. The young lefty struggled at Triple-A St. Paul last season, generating a 6.59 ERA, 5.73 FIP, and a 28-to-23 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 1/3 innings pitched. Rojas cited external factors, such as the baseballs used in Triple-A, as a driving factor in his performance woes in the high minors. Yet, the most likely reason behind his struggles was that Toronto promoted him too aggressively. Regardless, Twins' decision-makers likely won’t reverse course with the now 23-year-old as the hard-throwing lefty is set to begin his 2026 campaign at Triple-A, citing notable advancements in his arsenal this spring. What’s to Like Despite posting lackluster surface stats this spring (6.75 ERA and 5.87 FIP over four innings pitched), Rojas’s stuff has caught the attention of fans and pundits alike, headlined by increased four-seam velocity. Last season, the southpaw's four-seam hovered around 94 MPH. Yet, it is sitting at 96.4 MPH, while topping out at 98.5 MPH in an appearance against Ronald Acuña Jr. on Feb. 22 (statistics below courtesy of TJStats). His four-seam fastball could become a true plus-pitch if he can sustain his newfound velocity bump into the regular season. However, there are concerns with the shape and movement profile of the pitch, which we will get into later. Throughout his career, his best pitch has been his slider, and that trend has continued early this spring. Rojas has been able to pound the zone with his slider (hovering around 88 MPH), generating a high whiff rate against right- and left-handed hitters. Given its handedness-proof nature, he should be able to lean on the pitch going forward, making it his primary put-out pitch against all types of hitters. His change up (also sitting around 88 MPH) has also impressed this spring, primarily throwing it low in the zone to righties. Sporting a plus breaking pitch, a plus offspeed pitch, and an ascending fastball, Rojas could soon develop into an above-average major league starter and cost-controlled rotation stalwart for Minnesota for seasons to come. What’s Left to Work On To become that, however, the hard-throwing lefty will need to continue refining his four-seam. The pitch is coming out of his hand flat, evidenced by his fastball generating only 14 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) in his last appearance. The lower the IVB, the longer hitters see the ball, improving their chances of making hard contact like Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran did below: YVk5TGVfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZNRFV3WlhCUUlBWGxjREFnQUhCUUZWQUFNTUFBVUFCZ1lEQXdNQkJGZGRWQWRS.mp4 The former Blue Jays prospect has also struggled with command in the minors, highlighted by sporting a well-below-average 15.9% walk rate with St. Paul last season. He is showing signs of improvement this spring, decreasing his walk rate to an admirable 6.7% over four innings pitched. Still, like his four-seam velocity bump, he will need to sustain these improvements into the regular season for him to become a serviceable major league starting pitcher in 2026. Again, Rojas has the potential to be a high-strikeout, high-whiff starting pitcher, especially given his handedness. He needs to hone in on his command, however, but that’s okay. He is an uber-talented 23-year-old left-handed starting pitcher. Something this organization hasn’t had since Francisco Liriano. What to Look For in 2026 As noted earlier, Rojas will likely begin his 2026 campaign as part of the Triple-A St. Paul Saints starting rotation, alongside fellow young, high-upside starting pitchers in Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp, and Andrew Morris. He will continue working on refining his four-seam fastball shape, sustaining his velo bump, and sharpening his secondary pitches with the Saints' pitching development staff, with eyes toward making his major league debut come midsummer, if not earlier. Again, his surface stats with St. Paul in 2025 were nothing to write home about. Still, he has the stuff necessary to blossom into a frontline starting pitcher, ushering in Minnesota’s next wave of young starting rotation talent. View full article

What Does This Mean for Alan Roden?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images The day Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers reported to the Lee Health Sports Complex in beautiful Fort Myers, Florida, freshly anointed head baseball executive Jeremy Zoll made two noteworthy late-offseason bullpen acquisitions, trading for left-handed reliever Anthony Banda from the Los Angeles Dodgers and signing right-handed reliever Liam Hendriks to a minor-league deal. Two days later, the club signed veteran southpaw Andrew Chafin to a minor-league contract, completing a flurry of mid-February signings designed to improve the club’s bullpen. Banda, Hendriks, and Chafin join Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, Eric Orze, Travis Adams, Marco Raya, Zak Kent, John Klein, Dan Altavilla, and others competing to fill the eight-pitcher unit. A talent- and depth-deficient unit entering the offseason, Minnesota’s bullpen has become crowded with a mix of veteran and inexperienced candidates, creating one of the more wide-open camp competitions in recent Twins history. Barring injury, Sands, Rogers, and Banda are the only three relievers guaranteed spots in the club’s Opening Day bullpen. If Hendriks and Chafin resemble what they've been in seasons past, the two veterans on minor-league deals are favorites to earn spots. The final three spots remain up for grabs as the calendar flips to March, with one aforementioned veteran arm potentially becoming a surprise omission from the club’s Opening Day pen. Earning a 3.90 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and a 49-to-18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings pitched, Topa performed well last season. The veteran righty also stepped in as one of the Twins' most reliable late-inning arms after the front office parted ways with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Brock Stewart, and Danny Coulombe at the trade deadline, working his way to a 3.31 ERA and notching four saves from Aug. 1 through Sept. 7. Unfortunately, the then-34-year-old missed the rest of his 2025 campaign after suffering a left oblique strain. Despite the unceremonious end to his first full season with Minnesota, Topa appeared to be a shoo-in for a spot entering the offseason. However, the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s early spring struggles could result in an unexpected end to his Twins’ tenure. To preface, I want to recognize that I am about to analyze an exceptionally small performance sample of work. I also understand that it is still early March, and there’s a strong likelihood that Topa is still in the “ramp-up” phase of his spring program. Still, his underlying metrics suggest the wily veteran’s days as an effective major-league reliever may be coming to an end, evidenced by the chart below (courtesy of TJStats): Topa is generating a lot of swings, which is typically a positive sign, especially for relievers. Unfortunately, hitters are making a lot of contact and doing tons of damage upon intercepting the pitch, resulting in a catastrophic zone contact rate and barrel rate. His well-below-average barrel rate is particularly concerning, given that his past success with Seattle and Minnesota was largely the product of missing barrels with his plus sinker and sweeper. If Topa is unable to miss barrels and generate weak contact, he would become an unusable arm, with too many whammies like this one ruining outings of any consequence. Like this: OTdCTEFfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlZkVVYxME1VZ01BV3dRQVV3QUhCbEJSQUFOUUJRSUFWRkFNVWd0VUFsRUdWUW9B.mp4 Topa’s early struggles are especially concerning given that there is no real dip in his velocity compared to last season. In his two appearances against Boston this spring, there was essentially no change in his sinker, sweeper, cutter, or changeup velocity, compared to his 2025 averages. That being the case, the primary factors behind his 27.00 ERA and 13.47 FIP over 1 2/3 innings pitched are diminished movement and poor command or execution. Again, I understand that I am talking about less than two innings pitched. Yet, given that fellow bullpen candidates Orze, Funderburk, Altavilla, Klein, and Raya (from a stuff perspective) are off to strong starts this spring, Topa and his $1.23-million contract could end up on the chopping block come the end of March, either being designated for assignment or traded to another organization. View full article

no, you're right, i'm not going to pretend to disagree with you. to your point, though, i meant "plus power" relative to position. that claim was made more so off memory and projection than actual data. that said, his ISO is in the same ballpark as players like Mookie Betts and Gunnar Henderson. i think it would be appropriate to give him the "plus power" tag if he reaches the .145-.160 ISO range this season.

you're missing the forest for the trees. 16 home runs is impressive for a SS and there's a real chance he could hit 20+ home runs next season.

In his first two seasons in Major League Baseball, Brooks Lee has hit .232/.279/.357 with 19 home runs and a 75 wRC+ over 712 combined plate appearances. Performing 25% below league-average, Lee has struggled to reach base, often chasing pitches outside the zone, leading to weak contact and a high whiff rate. The 25-year-old has generated plus power last season while consistently netting a low strikeout rate. However, his poor swing decisions have led to him entering his third season at an early-career crossroads, straining to prove he belongs in the majors. Minnesota is anticipated to hand him ample opportunity to accomplish that, with him penciled in as the club’s Opening Day starting shortstop. Yet, with ascending shortstop prospect Kaelen Culpepper expected to begin his 2026 campaign at Triple-A and 2025 first-round draft pick Marek Houston not too far behind them, time is running thin. What did Lee do in an effort to break out at the plate in 2026, staving off Culpepper and Houston? Let’s take a look. Drafted as a switch-hitter, Lee had always performed better from the left side, evidenced by his time at Cal Poly and in the minors. Unfortunately, that trend failed to continue with the parent club, with him posting a 68 wRC+ over a combined 482 plate appearances from the left side of the plate the past two seasons, compared to a 77 wRC+ over 230 combined plate appearances hitting right-handed. Obviously, both results are undesirable, resulting in the former top prospect performing at below replacement level rate over his young career. That being the case, he prioritized improving as a hitter from the left side while keeping his right-handed swing stable this offseason. “(I’m) just trying to find one swing that I could stick with left-handed, not make so many adjustments,” Lee confessed. “I felt like this offseason, I made the least amount of adjustments. Didn’t look at video that much. I felt good just trying to hit the ball the other way more. I didn’t really do that last year, left-handed. I feel like, right-handed, I did. I got a lot more hits, and so, yeah, that was kind of a big focus. See the ball deeper so I could hit it that way. And I think that’ll help with chasing.” Lee dramatically altered his intercept point from the left side of the plate between his first two seasons, standing 5.1 inches from the plate in 2024 to 2.0 inches in 2025. His adjustment resulted in him increasing his bat speed by a tick. Yet, as noted earlier, his adjustment didn’t yield a meaningful improvement in results. Interestingly, Lee stood 6.4 inches from the plate, hitting right-handed last season, a stark contrast from his approach from the left side. Given Lee’s comfort in his swing from the right side and desire to improve from the left, he could decide to again stand further from the plate from the left side, in an attempt to mirror his approach from the right side. Whether that would produce better results is in question, given that he still struggled from the left side while standing further back in 2024. There is no evidence to suggest that Lee will actually do that. Yet, if he (in collaboration with new hitting coach Keith Beauregard) believes seeing the ball deeper would improve his chase rate, intercepting the ball further from the plate would be a sound adjustment to make. Lee has also always hit fastballs well, meaning he could sacrifice some plate coverage to see breaking and offspeed pitches further. If he can continue mashing fastballs from both sides of the plate while chasing offspeed and breaking pitches less, Lee could become the self-actualized switch-hitter Twins Territory has yearned for him to become since his electric 2024 debut, while producing 20+ home run power. If Lee undergoes modest improvement early next season, he could still be usurped by Culpepper, effectively ending his chances of becoming the club’s long-term shortstop. Still, a long-term role as a utility infielder who could bounce between second base, third, and short (and maybe potentially first base) is still in the cards with Lee. At the same time, a very disheartening reality exists: Lee could be demoted to Triple-A if his early-career struggles continue in 2026. He has reached an early-career crossroads, and his ability to improve as a left-handed hitter will be the deciding factor in his ability to remain in the majors. Twins Daily's John Bonnes contributed to the reporting in this piece. View full article

Acquired from the Boston Red Sox in mid-January for catching prospect Nate Baez, Tristan Gray joined his third organization in two months, becoming a member of the Minnesota Twins. The 29-year-old enters the fold, competing with Ryan Kreidler and Orlando Arcia to become the club’s backup shortstop behind Brooks Lee. How does Gray compare to Kreidler and Arcia? Is he the favorite to win the competition? Let’s take a look. Tristan Gray’s Batting Metrics The left-handed infielder’s hitting metrics have been extremely volatile over his three-season major league career. Over only 122 plate appearances, Gray has hit a combined .207/.264/.369 with four home runs and a 76 wRC+. His overall numbers are largely the product of volatility, evidenced by him generating a 285 wRC+ over 5 plate appearances with Tampa in 2023 and a 6 wRC+ over 31 plate appearances between Miami and Oakland in 2024. However, in his longest stretch in the majors with Tampa last season, Gray hit .231/.282/.410 with three home runs and an 89 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances. Despite struggling to get on base, the 29-year-old was serviceable in his first extended run in the majors, with his underlying metrics supporting that suggestion. Interestingly, Gray sported reverse splits last season, generating a 207 wRC+ over 23 plate appearances against southpaws compared to a 45 wRC+ over 63 plate appearances against righties. His reverse splits remain consistent with his small 2024 sample. Again, it would be negligent to make concrete claims when assessing 122 plate appearances. However, if we are to believe he is servicable against left-handed pitching while likely performing better against right-handed hitting with more opportunities, Gray could be the most platoon-proof option of the trio, potentially giving him an upper hand over Kreidler and Arcia. As noted earlier, Gray is by no means a Moneyball darling, struggling to reach base. He also sported an alarming 31.9% whiff rate last season. Yet, when he made contact last season, he hit the ball hard, sporting elite bat speed, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Gray’s underlying metrics closely mirror Kody Clemens’s, who underwent an unexpected power surge with Minnesota last season. It would be unfair to expect Gray to hit 19 home runs next season. Yet, he could provide similar output to Clemens in 2026 if his 2025 metrics carry over. Tristan Gray’s Defensive Skillset Gray spent meaningful time at shortstop last season, collecting 62 innings at the position. He also mixed in at the other three infield positions, playing 80 innings at second base, 33 innings at third base, and 19 innings at first base. The former Ray graded out as average or slightly below average at third, second, and first. Yet, he generated 1 Outs Above Average (OAA) at shortstop, meaning he was slightly above-average at the position. Admittedly, Gray is likely a better defensive shortstop than Lee. Kreidler and Arcia likely are, too. Lee is going to be the primary starter at the position, regardless. Still, Gray could play the position at an average-to-above-average rate, meaning he could fill in at the position on Lee’s days off or if he sustained a long-term injury or significant performance concerns. Gray could also serve as Luke Keaschall’s backup at second base, Royce Lewis’s backup at third, and sprinkle in at first base alongside Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Clemens, providing unrestrained utility to the Twins' infield. What Should Tristan Gray’s Role Be in 2026? Given his encouraging performance at the plate last season and defensive flexibility, Gray could have the inside track on winning the backup shortstop role over Kreidler and Arcia, who are both profoundly subpar hitters. Having one minor league option remaining, Minnesota could option Gray to Triple-A St. Paul and reward Kreidler or Arcia the bench spot. That said, given that Minnesota targeted Gray and handed him a 40-man roster spot (Kreidler also has a 40-man roster spot; Arica doesn’t), signs point toward the organization entering Spring Training with Gray being the favorite to win the role. View full article

Acquired alongside top-100 prospect Eduardo Tait in the 2025 trade deadline deal that sent closer Jhoan Duran to the Philadelphia Phillies, Mick Abel made four appearances for the Minnesota Twins last season, generating an 8.36 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and an 18-to-7 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 innings. Abel’s struggles weren’t unique to his tenure in Minnesota, as he posted similarly disappointing numbers (5.04 ERA, 6.30 FIP, and 21-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio) over 25 innings with Philadelphia. Despite struggling during his first cup of coffee in the majors, the 24-year-old still projects to be a serviceable major-league starting pitcher in the near future, given his plus stuff and sustained success in the high minors. What should his role with the 2026 Twins be? Let’s take a look. This article is part of a series about the Twins pitchers with the most fluid set of possible roles, as spring training begins. Read previous entries: David Festa's Arsenal Zebby Matthews' Arsenal Taj Bradley's Arsenal Mick Abel's Stuff Abel relies on his four-seam fastball; he threw it 42% of the time last season. Hovering around 96 MPH, the righty’s four-seamer possesses above-average velocity but an average movement profile. With a high spin rate, the heater ate up minor-league hitters over the past four seasons. Unfortunately, he was unable to replicate those results with the pitch at the major-league level in 2025, surrendering a .610 slugging average on it. Somehow, attacking with a fastball this firm at the top of the zone should work. Philadelphia and Minnesota’s pitching coaches agree, evidently, as the young righty threw his four-seamer up in the zone 33.5% of the time last season, which would have been the highest rate in baseball if Abel pitched enough to qualify for that leaderboard. Again, Abel’s fastball shape and spin rate grade out better than average, especially once one adjusts for his low three-quarter arm slot. That pitch isn't disappearing from his arsenal any time soon. However, he'll need to locate it more efficiently and become less predictable if he wants to mirror the success he had with the pitch in the high minors. Mick Abel's Arsenal Abel’s best pitch is his curve, which he threw at a 21% rate in 2025. He reserves the offering almost exclusively for left-handed batters. As is true with a good changeup, right-handed pitchers are often able to get left-handed hitters to swing over curves low in or below the zone, generating whiffs or inducing weak choppers to the right side of the infield. The pitch was a darling of advanced metrics, with left-handed hitters generating a .296 expected slugging average (xSLG) and a .212 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against the pitch last season. Though it pops out of his hand a bit, lefties have a hard time adjusting to the depth of the pitch's movement. The blue tracer below shows the average trajectory of Abel's curve. Hitters read that either hump, but struggle to bend their swing enough to respond to its two-plane break. His slider (thrown 12% of the time) was less impressive, generating a .449 xSLG while being thrown only 83 times. Abel throws his slider far more often to righties, hoping to pinpoint the pitch low and outside of the zone. Unfortunately, his slider control is spotty, with his heat map looking like a no-correlation scatter plot. Still, you can see how it's more deceptive to a righty than that curve. Horizontally, the slider and four-seamer stay in the same tunnel longer, before the slider breaks away and the fastball tails back toward the batter. The righty also throws a sinker and changeup, which combine for a 22% usage rate. Unsurprisingly, he utilizes his change (alongside his curve) to attack left-handed hitters. The pitch was hammered last season, though, with hitters turning into Ted Williams and posting a .417 batting average against it. Abel was slightly more effective throwing his sinker, with hitters instead turning into Tony Gwynn and running a .375 batting average against the pitch. Abel will need to continue refining his pitches with Minnesota’s pitching development. Luckily, being 24 years old and having thrown only 39 innings in the majors, Abel should still be treated with the grace of an unproven pitching prospect. Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2025 Four Seamer 303 92 211 42.1 96.4 73 59 17 10 1 0 6 15 44 .288 .273 .610 .570 .439 .418 90.7 25 2544 6.8 25.9 18.3 2025 Curveball 154 31 123 21.4 82.7 35 35 6 2 1 1 2 16 19 .171 .198 .429 .296 .248 .212 89.4 12 2672 6.8 37.5 23.5 2025 Sinker 95 80 15 13.2 95.4 26 24 9 8 0 1 0 1 23 .375 .339 .458 .398 .386 .351 91.5 7 2469 6.7 12.2 6.3 2025 Slider 83 65 18 11.5 87.3 23 22 5 5 0 0 0 3 19 .227 .271 .227 .449 .222 .320 95.5 14 2419 6.7 16.3 9.4 2025 Changeup 63 4 59 8.8 89.1 12 12 5 5 0 0 0 2 10 .417 .333 .417 .538 .368 .375 90.2 1 1704 6.8 25.0 13.3 2025 Sweeper 22 22 0 3.1 84.5 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 .200 .228 .200 .313 .176 .237 87.4 34 2781 7.0 41.7 15.4 What Should Be Mick Abel's Role In 2026? While technically competing with Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa for the fifth rotation spot, Abel has the fewest innings in the majors of that group and the most refinement needed to his arsenal. That being the case, Abel would be best suited to start his 2026 campaign in Triple-A, functioning as a still-developing starting pitching prospect. He still has two minor-league option years, so Minnesota has the luxury of being patient with Abel. He should figure into the rotation at some point in 2026. Yet, given that Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and/or Bailey Ober could no longer be part of the club’s rotation come next season, the team would be wise to continue developing Abel as a starting pitcher in Triple-A, with an eye toward him becoming a rotation stalwart in 2027 and beyond. View full article

In less than two weeks, pitchers and catchers will report to the Lee Health Sports Complex in Fort Myers, serving as the unofficial start to the 66th season of Minnesota Twins baseball. Understandably, angst, uncertainty, and pessimism will be the forefront emotions of many who follow the club. Still, reasons for optimism will manifest this spring, with the club’s starting rotation being the most likely source to bring that trait to light. Barring injury or an unforeseen trade, Pablo López and Joe Ryan will operate as co-aces of the five-pitcher unit, creating one of the most formidable frontline duos in baseball. Experienced righties Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson will likely occupy the third and fourth spots, respectively. Interestingly, the club has four more starting pitchers with major league experience on its 40-man roster. However, only one of those four arms will win the final rotation spot, creating one of the more fascinating Spring Training competitions in recent Twins history. Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Mick Abel are the four arms set to compete for the fifth rotation spot. Luckily, all four pitchers have minor league options remaining, meaning Minnesota won’t need to make any drastic 40-man roster decisions before flying to Baltimore in late March. Still, deciding which arm to hand the fifth rotation spot to will be an incredibly consequential decision as the Twins try to avoid starting their 2026 campaign on the wrong foot, as they did in 2024 and 2025. As noted earlier, Twins decision-makers could demote the three pitchers who lost the camp competition to Triple-A St. Paul, with that trio headlining the Saints’ rotation. Interestingly, one of the four rotation hopefuls could still make an immediate impact on the major league club, just not in the role he entered Spring Training vying to win. David Festa's Stuff Making his major league debut with Minnesota in 2024, Festa has struggled during his first two seasons, generating a 5.12 ERA and 4.27 FIP over 117 2/3 innings pitched. The primary reason behind Festa’s struggles in the majors, so far, is that his four-seam fastball has been ineffective. Thrown a combined 36% the past two seasons, hitters have generated a .344 batting average against the 25-year-old’s fastball. Alongside hitting the pitch often, batters have also done a meaningful amount of damage with the pitch, evidenced by the pitch surrendering a .609 slugging percentage last season. On average, major league fastballs thrown by right-handed pitchers move eight inches toward same-handed hitters while dropping 15 inches. Festa’s moves only two inches while dropping 13 inches. His fastball is flat, so hitters can see it clearly as it enters the zone. A lack of four-seam shape and movement can work if a pitcher generates above-average velocity (i.e., Paul Skenes). Yet, given that Festa’s average four-seam velocity is below-average alongside being flat, hitters are able to tee off on the pitch, despite him being able to consistently locate it high in the zone. Fortunately, the Seton Hall product’s breaking and offspeed pitches are far more effective, functioning as driving forces in the minimal success he has generated in the majors. Last season, Festa threw his change 29% of the time, nearly matching his four-seam usage rate. Unlike his four-seam, however, the right thrived with his change, posting a .113 batting average against while throwing it 256 times. Festa primarily threw the pitch low in the zone against left-handed hitters. Lefties often swung over the pitch, often whiffing or dribbling the ball to the right side of the infield, evidenced by his impressive .274 slugging percentage against. Festa’s change also functioned as his put-away pitch, evidenced by him generating 26 strikeouts and a 23.2% put away rate. David Festa's Pitch Arsenal His slider (thrown 27% of the time) was similarly effective. However, he primarily threw his breaking pitch to right-handed hitters. Festa generated a .231 batting average against and a .423 slugging percentage against with his slider. Yet, underlying metrics undermine his success with the pitch, evidenced by his generating a .550 expected slugging percentage against (xSLG) and a .359 expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA) with the pitch. For reference, his four-seam manufactured a .568 xSLG and .418 xWOBA. Festa often caught too much of the plate with his slider when throwing it to right-handed hitters. Similar to his four-seam, Festa’s slider lacks horizontal movement, meaning hitters can see it well as it crosses the plate. That being the case, right-handed hitters generated a lot of damage against his slider, making it an ineffective secondary pitch. Given the plus nature of his change, Festa has somewhat surprisingly been more effective against left-handed hitters of the course of his career, evidenced by lefties generating a combined .305 wOBA the past two seasons compared to righties posting a .322. Being 6’6”, Festa has one of the highest release points in baseball, releasing the ball six feet from the ground on average. Given his lanky frame, Festa also sports one of the highest extension rates in the sport, shortening the distance between him and the batter. Unfortunately, the lanky righty’s height-driven advantage has been nullified by his throwing at a 50-degree angle, one of the highest release points in baseball. As noted earlier, Festa often throws his four-seam high in the zone. Throwing the pitch high in the zone from a high arm slot is what makes the pitch flat and, therefore, ineffective. Also, releasing breaking pitches from a high arm slot creates less horizontal movement, explaining the ineffectiveness of his slider. Interestingly, his high arm slot is likely the driving factor in his change being so effective, given that he can drop the pitch in from such a high release point. Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2025 Four Seamer 280 120 160 31.7 94.1 76 64 22 13 5 0 4 9 56 .344 .309 .609 .568 .447 .418 90.1 26 2416 7.0 14.1 16.1 2025 Changeup 256 91 165 29.0 87.8 67 62 7 3 1 0 3 26 36 .113 .134 .274 .302 .201 .221 85.7 19 1758 6.9 44.0 23.2 2025 Slider 236 154 82 26.8 87.6 55 52 12 8 1 0 3 16 36 .231 .263 .423 .550 .300 .359 91.3 19 2595 6.9 32.2 20.5 2025 Sinker 110 73 37 12.5 93.9 31 26 8 8 0 0 0 2 25 .308 .301 .308 .435 .319 .365 92.2 7 2297 7.0 13.0 25.0 2024 Four Seamer 442 242 200 40.2 94.7 93 79 24 13 7 0 4 23 56 .304 .265 .544 .514 .410 .385 91.3 18 2349 7.0 19.4 21.3 2024 Slider 349 244 105 31.8 86.1 97 92 19 13 3 2 1 26 66 .207 .236 .315 .394 .246 .292 90.2 13 2564 6.8 29.1 20.2 2024 Changeup 308 116 192 28.0 88.4 87 80 19 10 4 1 4 28 53 .238 .203 .463 .329 .319 .262 85.9 13 1839 6.8 39.4 23.0 What Should Be David Festa's Role In 2026? Given Minnesota’s surplus of starting pitching depth and Festa’s struggles the past two seasons, the lanky 25-year-old would be best used in a short-relief role, with the Twins' pitching development staff working with him to lower his arm slot to maximize his four-seam and slider. If converted into a short relief role, the 25-year-old could add velocity to his four-seam, potentially bumping the pitch up to 96-97 MPH. As mentioned earlier, pitchers can make flat four-seams work with increased velocity. Festa would likely be able to sustain increased four-seam velocity pitching in a one-inning role. Also, minimizing his workload would allow him to maximize his slider, adding more break and velocity to the pitch. If he is able to refine his four-seam and slider while continuing to sport an elite change, Festa could quickly become Minnesota’s most effective reliever, given how little high-end talent presently resides in the club’s bullpen. View full article

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Entering the offseason, those who follow the Minnesota Twins expected corner outfielder/designated hitter Trevor Larnach to part ways with the organization, either by being non-tendered in mid-November or traded sometime before spring training. Instead, they tendered him a contract in the fall, and agreed to a one-year, $4.475-million contract to avoid arbitration earlier this month. With less than three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to the Lee Health Sports Complex in Fort Myers, Larnach remains with the club. Larnach appears set to enter his sixth major-league season still a member of the Twins. However, his role in 2026 could differ from any he’s occupied in previous seasons, due to the 26-man roster’s projected construction. Right now, Larnach is projected to platoon with Austin Martin in left field, with Larnach starting games against right-handed starting pitchers and Martin starting games against left-handed starting pitchers. At first glance, Larnach would be slated to receive more opportunities at the position, given that major-league clubs face right-handed starting pitchers about three times as often as southpaws. Yet, given how Minnesota’s 26-man roster is currently constructed, the club could possess the positional flexibility necessary to avoid playing Larnach in the field altogether. Fellow left-handed hitting corner outfield options Kody Clemens and Alan Roden (or James Outman, depending on who performs better during spring training) are also projected to hold roster spots come Opening Day. Clemens and Roden are superior defensive options to Larnach. The trio of Clemens, Roden, and Martin could operate in left field interchangeably, providing Minnesota with a plus defensive option in every platoon scenario. Any of the three players could also back up Matt Wallner in right field, providing the club with quality defensive flexibility in both corner outfield spots. Larnach would thus operate as the club’s primary designated hitter against right-handed starting pitchers, with switch-hitting DH options Josh Bell (first base) and Victor Caratini (catcher) playing in the field. On the surface, that looks like a minimal role, especially for a player earning almost $5 million. As noted earlier, however, major-league clubs face right-handed starting pitchers far more often than left-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota could maximize Larnach’s skillset on a game-to-game basis, potentially leading to the Oregon State product producing at an unforeseen rate in his age-29 season. In 2024, Larnach hit .259/.338/.434 (a 119 wRC+) over 400 plate appearances, marking what has been his best season in the majors. Larnach excelled against right-handed pitching in 2024, hitting 15 home runs and posting a 123 wRC+ over 377 plate appearances. He struggled against same-handed pitchers, however, posting a lousy 63 wRC+ in the tiny sample of 23 plate appearances. Larnach performed well against right-handed pitching last season, too, generating a 110 wRC+ over 449 plate appearances. However, the team elected to provide him more opportunities against lefties, which worked to his detriment. Larnach generated a similarly brutal 71 wRC+ against lefties. That time, however, he garnered 118 plate appearances against same-handed pitchers, a fivefold increase from 2024. His apparent performance dip last year was the result of Minnesota forcing him into 95 additional plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, due to a lack of corner outfield and DH depth. With Martin, Clemens, Roden (or Outman), Wallner, Bell, and Caratini all projected to be on the Opening Day roster, Minnesota could shield Larnach from his weaknesses and maximize his strengths. Hitting almost exclusively against righties, Larnach could again post a wRC+ in the 120-130 range, though that would put more pressure on Martin, Bell and Caratini to be productive hitters against southpaws. Again, Larnach is not a platoon-proof left-handed hitting bat in the same ilk as Kyle Tucker or Tyler Soderstrom. Still, he could supply value in the right role. The final question, then, is whether the right role for Larnach is one the roster can accommodate, as a whole. The Twins will have 13 roster spots for position players at any given time. Ryan Jeffers and Caratini are locks. So are Bell, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Wallner and Clemens. That makes nine. Roden, Martin, Tristan Gray, Ryan Kreidler and Eric Wagaman can all be optioned to the minors, which gives the team flexibility, but that still leaves Outman, Edouard Julien, and Alex Jackson to sort through. The nine players listed as locks don't include a backup shortstop or third baseman, so one of the final four spots must be held for that player, with Gray being the leading candidate. Whether keeping Larnach (and using him in the role we've discussed) makes sense could come down to which of the out-of-options trio sticks around, if any. Julien is almost certainly out the door. Should the team elect to carry three catchers by keeping Jackson, though, they'd also be more likely to use Jeffers and Caratini at DH on occasion, pinching Larnach. Outman is the closest thing to a true center fielder in the mix, other than Buxton, so he could stick around mostly for his glove—but even if that's why he lands on the roster, him landing there would complicate keeping Larnach. If the Twins trust Larnach in left field (something that wasn't true in 2025), he has a fairly clear path to sticking around and making a positive impact. If not, though, he's still in a precarious position, because the role the team would most like to give him might not suit the rest of their roster construction. He just needs the right opportunity, but whether that right opportunity exists in Minnesota isn't clear yet. View full article

i'm not the step dad, i'm the dad who stepped up

Entering the 2026 MLB regular season, four of the Minnesota Twins’ five rotation spots are filled, headlined by co-aces Pablo López and Joe Ryan, popular bounceback candidate Bailey Ober, and an experienced yet still developing Simeon Woods Richardson. Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, David Festa, and Mick Abel will compete for the club’s fifth spot this Spring Training. The eight-pitcher collective is one of the most achieved, talented, and depth-abundant collectives that President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey has constructed, with the 2023 septet of López, Ryan, Ober, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Louis Varland being the only worthwhile challenger. Again, López and Ryan are the two best arms among the eight pitchers listed. Understandably so, many who follow the Twins would be quick to list Ober as the third most talented arm in the collective. Since 2023 (when López joined Minnesota), Ober has objectively been Minnesota’s third most effective starting pitcher according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR), netting 6.6 during that three-season stretch to Ryan’s 8.6 and López’s 9.6. Yet, after undergoing a career-worst performance last season (5.10 ERA and 4.90 FIP over 146 1/3 innings pitched), Ober might no longer be the club’s third-best starter, with Woods Richardson potentially surpassing him. Despite being demoted to Triple-A from mid-May to early-June, Woods Richardson improved in his second season as a full-time starter, posting a 4.04 ERA, 4.52 FIP, and a 107-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 111 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old stood out after the trade deadline, generating a 3.52 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and an elite 31.1% strikeout rate over 30 2/3 innings pitched. Given Ryan’s second-half struggles and López’s extended absence, the young righty operated as Minnesota’s best starting pitcher from Aug. 1 through Sept. 30. Meanwhile, Ober sputtered, posting a 4.80 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and his average four-seam fastball velocity sitting below 90 miles per hour. Woods Richardson vastly outperformed Ober late last season, and that trend could continue in 2026. The primary reason Woods Richardson has likely usurped Ober as Minnesota’s third most effective starting pitcher is the continued refinement and improvement of his arsenal. The young righty’s average four-seam fastball velocity has steadily increased over his first four seasons in the majors, settling at 93.2 MPH in 2025. Ober, on the other hand, has undergone a meaningful decrease in average four-seam velo, with the pitch hovering around 91.7 MPH in 2024 (his best season) to sitting at 90.3 MPH last season. Despite still possessing a plus change, Ober’s slider has also undergone a significant drop in quality, evidenced by the pitch having above-average movement in 2024 to regressing into the eighth-worst slider in baseball in 2025, according to the slider run value leaderboard at Baseball Savant. Meanwhile, Woods Richardson sported an above-average slider according to the same metric, while throwing the highest number of them on the team (Ober threw the second most). Obviously, much of Minnesota’s rotation success will be contingent on López and Ryan performing on par with or better than their career norms while remaining healthy. Still, Ober and Woods Richardson will play substantial roles in the club’s ability to field a plus rotation. As noted earlier, Ober’s struggles could have been the product of him pitching through injury. Still, if he continues to pitch poorly early next season and Woods Richardson continues to progress, the latter could solidify himself as Minnesota’s newest frontline arm. View full article

Last October, Twins Daily’s Matthew Trueblood published a piece on Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews’s proclivity to surrendering a high number of singles over the first two seasons of his career, evidenced by the 25-year-old allowing a .361 batting average on balls in play over 117 innings pitched. In his article, Trueblood notes that Matthews’s ailments aren’t simply due to him being unlucky, citing that the hard-throwing righty gives up too many batted balls that have a strong chance of becoming hits. Defensive improvement from Minnesota (particularly from the infielders) could lead to more sustained success for Matthews in 2026. However, the former top prospect could also take steps to mend his shortcomings by refining his arsenal. Last season, Matthews threw the following pitches (usage rates included): Four-seam fastball - 41% Slider - 25% Cutter - 13% Change - 11% Curve - 6% Sinker - 4% The righty’s most used pitch was his four-seam fastball, which was also the case in 2024. Those following the Twins should expect him to continue throwing the pitch at a rate eclipsing 40% next season. However, his best pitch is his slider, which he used only 25% of the time in 2025. He also used his change, curve, and sinker a combined 21% of the time, primarily utilizing his change against left-handed hitters in an effort to generate swings and misses below the zone. Matthews would be wise to continue throwing these pitches in 2026 to change the pace of at-bats. However, he would be wise to scrap his cutter entirely, opting to fortify his slider and use it at a rate similar to his fastball (both of which are superior pitches). MTZxRGdfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVFCUkFGVlFVd1VBWFZWVVZBQUhCZ1JlQUFNRFdsa0FWQVJYVmxkVEF3RlFVZ0JW.mp4 Functioning as a fastball variant, Matthews primarily threw his cutter against left-handed hitters, with the intention of getting hitters to jam themselves on the pitch cutting in on them. Unfortunately, left-handed hitters generated a .760 slugging percentage against his cutter last season. Matthews’s cutter is slightly above-average in terms of Stuff. However, the young righty poorly located his cutter, throwing it lower in the zone against left-handed hitters rather than attacking them high. Because he is unable to effectively throw his cutter high in the zone against left-handed hitters, the pitch is unintentionally being used like a backdoor slider. However, given that his cutter doesn’t have the same movement profile as his plus slider, the pitch isn’t reaching the back foot of left-handed hitters. That being the case, lefties have been able to take advantage of the pitch due to it catching too much of the plate at a lower velocity than his four-seam fastball. As mentioned earlier, Matthews would be wise to instead throw backdoor sliders to left-handed hitters, a pitch that provides more depth and better location than his cutter. He could also throw his plus four-seam high in the zone to lefties, creating a more formidable one-two punch, instead of relying on his cutter to play the role of fastball and slider. Also, he could be incentivized to throw his change more against lefties, increasing his usage rate to around 20%. If Matthews were to ditch his cutter, increase his slider usage, and further utilize his change against lefties, he could limit balls put in play against him (particularly against lefties) and potentially earn his first taste of sustained success at the major league level in 2026. View full article