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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    I'm sorry, but you're demonstrating a high level of ignorance about addiction, and I hope you join the rest of us and become better informed. Obviously, no one forces alcohol down the throat of an alcoholic any more than someone forced you to resist having an understanding of alcoholism as a disease. The larger point to understand is that, mirroring society, about 10% of the prospects are likely to fight an addiction. When we want to "blame" someone because a prospect failed, or when we're pleasantly surprised sometimes with a prospect that had a breakout season, it could be a function of either succumbing to or overcoming a problem that perhaps most of us never have to face. And Booser isn't being given special treatment. He's being suspended for 50 games. You want a harsher punishment, and I'd personally deem that punishment to be cruel. Where's your compassion?
  2. bird
    I'm guessing that if Deron Johnson gave an honest answer to the question, "which 5 prospects project to be the best career contributors to the MLB team", Kiriloff might be on his list, but in any way you want to look at it, ranking Kiriloff in the top 5 is a lot less of a mockery than the statement you've made here.
  3. bird
    Right now is finally here. ETown opens its schedule tonight. That means that, as the new draftees sign and report, we'll see that the organization is culling the rosters at the upper levels right now, to make room for prospects to advance a level right now. It will be interesting to see if they believe Gonsalves's and Jorge's and Romero's development is best served in Chattanooga or in Rochester right now. We should also remember that, in Gonsalve's half-season in AA last year, he struggled with high pitch counts and fairly early departures a lot, and he walked a few too many batters, although he did make good progress on those fronts. He's still managing to throw a lot of pitches I think, so maybe there's more to work on under the surface.
  4. bird
    There's a typo here. You list two Twins prospects among the five who were aggressively placed. This flies in the face of the vast majority of opinions expressed here. I half expected a next sentence on any Royce Lewis complaint of "here we go again."
  5. bird
    Are you aware that addiction to alcohol and drugs is a problem for many people? Let's cut some slack here.
  6. bird
    True, they have better options at AAA than we do with the likes of Hurlbut, Slegers, and the dreadful collection of retreads they've punished us with to-date. Sickles shows TB with 10 pitchers in his top 20 preseason for them, the Twins with 11, BUT... Chargois, Burdi, Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, and Thorpe...so we'd have to reach down to AA for Gonsalves, Romero, and Jorge, as Mejia's already up and Ynoa's years away.
  7. bird
    In Mike Sixel's defense, which just about kills me , many of us were foresighted enough to say that, while Jepsen was a good get, he was late to the party and not enough.
  8. bird
    According to Sickles, Tampa Bay has two pitchers with a grade of B+ or better, Jose DeLeon and Brent Honeywell. In comparison, the Twins had Gonsalves and Romero in that category. Hu was graded at B-. Sickles gave the Rays a pre-season ranking of 12th, the Twins 15th.
  9. bird
    I see both points here. My problem is one of reconciling the goals (winning now, sustained excellence in the future) with what can practically speaking be done ( a few more pieces this year, getting a huge haul for Dozier and Santana that increases the odds of a WS ring in....um...which year?) Three things that mute my optimism for 2017: 1. This team has so many glaring holes, and so many players who aren't ready to give us peak performances. 2. There will likely be plenty of sellers at the deadline, and I wonder if the marketplace will be a bit tepid for sellers. 3. If we're buyers, I wonder if we have the assets needed to attract returns that will move the needle enough. Most of our minor league talent is just breaking camp down in extended spring training. I know this flies in the face of arguments from both camps, but if I were GM, the only rudder I'd have in the water is one of opportunity as either buyer OR seller, to make outlandishly good trades, without much thought or concern for 2017. If Sonny Gray is a bargain, great. If someone wants to give me two top 25's and a top 100 prospect for Ervin, great.
  10. bird
    I hope people remember that, regardless of who your own #1 was, the chances are excellent that 1 or 2 of the 4 guys you passed up will eventually be regarded as better players than your guy. But that doesn't make you a bad judge. Just a bad person.
  11. bird
    Yeah, funny thing is I just toggled over to this thread from another one where four of the six pitchers on this list were mercilessly trashed. Boshers was spared. This time. I have questions.
  12. bird
    Who isn't?
  13. bird
    At least it's an interesting night.
  14. bird
    Yeah, I think dreams of getting a couple of pitching prospects that are projected to ultimately have better careers than Santana, which has been suggested here, indicates a need to clarify just exactly what people think Santana brings back in the way of a return.
  15. bird
    This can only be a productive discussion when we put a presumed value on him, and then put an expected value on the return . Will he be valued in the marketplace as an ace? If so, does that get you a Top 25 pitching prospect, another top 100 prospect, and a Benninghoff type lottery ticket? Because if all he nets you are a couple of Felix Jorge and Luis Arraez types, keeping him makes sense, even if he declines as he ages, does it not? Those types of prospects are a dime a dozen.
  16. bird
    We're in a fairly low cycle for the organization's talent pipeline and yet we're talking about finding room for 20 prospects on the 40-man roster here. I'm pretty sure that fans for more than half the teams out there are not having this discussion.
  17. bird
    But I don't believe GM's underthink it in the way you're doing. The FO is going to set a value for Santana. A buyer will have to agree to that strike price. And the same goes for the return side of the equation. Every GM in the business will establish a discount in their minds for prospects based on time to the majors and the other risk factors. To put it simply, you're looking for a buyer who overvalues what you have to sell and will give you a bigger discount on what he has to offer in return. I'm saying don't trade him if those things aren't in the cards. I believe this is how the FO is looking at it, and I doubt a trade opportunity will arise.
  18. bird
    I hope it depends on two factors: 1) How do teams value Santana? I doubt teams assign him 1-2 value. If he's viewed as a 1-2, then game's on. Because realistically, despite the hot start, he's probably a 2-3 this year and could easily be a 2-3 at best next year. 2) How desperate is the buyer to give you an overpay above and beyond that 1-2 value? I'm not optimistic about either of these things. My hunch is that there's going to be an imbalance at the deadline favoring buyers, not sellers, that Santana will be valued in the marketplace as a 2-3, and that teams will be covetous of the kind of prospects we'd want. Would you trade Fernando Romero, Huascar Ynoa, and Aaron Whitfield for Santana? I think you'd have to really think Ervin puts you over the hump. I hold on to him if he's valued as a 2-3, because he holds more value for the team at that price than the likely prospect package. I'm not interested in a return of Felix Jorge, Randy LeBlanc, and Zander Wiel. And I think the fans and players would quickly forgive the organization for making the deal. Apathy is running fairly high and players know Ervin is no savior.
  19. bird
    Um, she may not be smart enough to get him back...
  20. bird
    I'm sure we'll get the #freegonsalves plea just like we did last year when you needed to look past the ERA to see that his pitching efficiency needs to improve. But you have to like the K's.
  21. bird
    If you're referring to these reports on the game action for the four full-season leagues, I think it's safe to say the Twins have one prospect that receives a consensus viewpoint of possibly being part of a core in the same way you might think of Kepler or Polanco. That's not to say others on those teams won't eventually become huge contributors. Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves both have a chance to be solid rotation pieces, probably with ceilings somewhere between Berrios and Mejia. Both are in AA. Lewis Thorpe might pleasantly surprise us and fit in that category too. So "nary a good prospect in sight" is a rather harsh assessment when looking at the full rosters of all four teams, and there are impressive numbers of truly exciting prospects still hidden from sight down in Extended Spring Training. Even looking exclusively to AAA Rochester, there are a few fairly promising prospects who could be future contributors: Chargois, Garver, and Granite come to mind. Additionally, we could see a resurrection and/or improvement from a number of fallen players: Vargas, Pressly, JR Murphy, Park.
  22. bird
    Blankenhorn thanks you for the anti-jinks. He was 3-5, 4RBI, a 2R HR, and flawless in the field. Our minor league teams won 3 of 4. Wilks, Eades and Pressly combined for the AAA win. Time to promote them.
  23. bird
    All 4 teams won the day before. The Twin's four full-season teams have collectively won more games than the same teams for any of their Central Division rivals and have a winning record as a group. None of the teams is more than 4 games under .500. The current strength of the system is indisputably at the lower levels, mostly awaiting the start of short season play or getting a first taste in Class A Cedar Rapids, which is 32-24. And things will likely start to look even more rosy after this year's draft. It will be a year or so before we notice more effects from the IFA signings, but I'm guessing that quite a few new names are going to emerge from last year's IFA crop. And they have a large IFA allotment this year, when more teams will be restricted from competing for IFA talent. The system is better than average and trending upward.
  24. bird
    As a guy who sees more good signs in the system than most, even I have to say this is an uninspiring list of names.
  25. bird
    Word has it that Reed's 134MPH fastball maintained its velocity all the way to the backstop. John Curtiss? He fell to the 6th round in the 2014 draft because he sat out all of 2013 after Tommy John surgery. He also missed the better part of 2015 with the Twins My guess is that concerns about him recovering his health supercede thoughts about pushing him along more aggressively. He's making a seamless adjustment to AA, which is very heartening. I would guess that after the draft, when they populate the low minors with all the new guys, that Curtiss will be on the move barring...I won't say it. Derek Rodriguez is one of four Miracle players named to the All-Star game, along with the injured Chris Paul, Sam Clay, and Brian Navarreto. None of these prospects earned a spot among Seth's mid-season Top 40. The system lacks marquee names, but it is far from being bad.
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