bird

I call strawman.

So yeah, it's great that those people aren't around here. Can you think of a single one of our pals here who has believed they should leave more than one rotation spot open to start the season? And most of us are even a bit queasy about that. So you're singing to the choir about 2020. But probably not when it comes to 2021. Duran, Balazovic, and Graterol (50 FV) top FG's rankings, followed by Thorpe, Canterino (45FV), and then Sands, Colina, Enlow, and Rijo (40FV), with Dobnak graduated. So, all ten of these prospects are ranked ahead of players who have not been underwhelming in their debuts, namely Smeltzer, Stashak, and Alcala, who get 40FV as well. Moran, Winder, Valimont, and Ober also get 40FV values. It's a numbers game. And yeah, we'd be fortunate if even a single one of these 17 pitchers became an Ace for even one season.

I'm not sure this is correct. Balazovic, Graterol and Duran all have 50FV values in FanGraphs this off-season, all now at AA or higher. I don't believe, after year one draft hype when EVERY pitcher has top of the rotation ceilings, that Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia, Jay. or even Romero was registering at 40 or maybe 45FV, and in FG, that's a pretty big difference.

No, Tom, not a single one of those prospects was really regarded by anyone (other than local dreamerfans) was thought to have a #1 ceiling. Using just one expert, Keith Law, and maybe imperfect recollection, Romero and Jay were though to be relievers or at best #3, Gonsalves, Stewart and Mejia mid rotation types.

Hosken, I'm sure you see the dilemna. The "do whatever it takes" argument rejects or at least dismisses the validity and right of ownership to consider prudence, to exercise their right to setting a clearing price. And that's okay. It just means that having a conversation about it is a non-starter. This is especially true because we almost never know what the clearing price is, for the player or the bidder. What was Falvey willing to bid? Whatever it takes? What does that even mean? What number, if any number, would have changed Wheeler's mind? Is it possible he and his wife shrugged, kissed each other good night, and had a nice dream knowing that $118,000,000.00 was enough? We can't just presume that some number would have worked, or that the timing of an offer would influence the player's decision. It's an auction process, and the auctioneer rarely starts telling bidders to put down their cards just because an early bid was sweet. Just the opposite probably happens, where Boras is repeating "5/100 going once" over and over until he gets the 5/118. Who knows, right? There are plenty of trade ideas offered every day. Those are an easier conversation. I mean, When someone suggests we trade Royce Lewis for Gore, everything is pretty much "knowable". Like that it ain't gonna happen.

I think this is a continuous aspiration. Unfortunately, clubs don't wake up and take a stupid pill all that often. The Rays did, and we took Odorizzi from them. The Pirates did, and Houston stepped in and stole Cole, not giving up any top 5 prospects. I think these trades have been in short supply. That said, my theory is we're embarking on a prolonged cycle where financial inflexibility will reign as the new market inefficiency. Examples perhaps: Greinke, David Price, Cole and Rendon being allowed to hit FA. Even though savvy deals are hard to find, you don't need a slew of them when you've already made a couple (Odorizzi and Pineda). As a Twins lifer (1961), I guess I've learned to be patient (not accepting), so when the team drafted and signed 20 college pitchers in last year's draft, that signaled to me that the long range strategy is to achieve a superior capacity for developing pitchers. I'm afraid we'll just have to wait for an Ace to emerge. We'll see.

If they don't acquire one more "impact pitcher" (using THEIR explanation and definition, not any of OURS), then like you, I'd appreciate it if, God forbid, the beat writers asked the tough questions. I think we forget that, coming off a 78 win season, we heard a lot of complaints, all the way up and through spring training, that they hadn't done enough, hadn't done the right things. Frankly, I was hoping for one more good reliever and was concerned that they were one starter short, but then the team wins 101. They went from hardly a player above replacement to a lineup of no one below replacement. And yet I recall complaints about Schoop and Cron. Cheap owner stuff. I mean, we were right that they were short a couple of pitchers there at the end (Dyson and Pineda would have been nice), but man alive, some people are whining that they should have foreseen that the window was more open. I cut them a bit more slack, in large part because while they weren't perfect by any means, the progress was phenomenal and the momentum is in place. I don't know how they're going to fill the few remaining holes. But I'm optimistic they will, with the exception perhaps of going light on relievers once again to start the season.

But aren't you presuming things here? What is a "Falvey fan" BTW? At the time you would have put that unwanted 5/125 out there, Wheeler and family had a 5/118 in the bag from a team 25 minutes from family, on their preferred coast, and had, according to non-Doogie sources, told Falvey that as much as they appreciated his willingness to offer more than the 5/100 that reportedly was on the table, he shouldn't bother. I suppose one could (and many will, often) argue that he could have and should have thrown an offer out there anyway, one so stupid that it "couldn't be turned down" according to the arguer's own theory of that unknown. If that's the argument, great. People are entitled to that opinion. However, they are not entitled to having Falvey make such an offer. I happen to respect and appreciate the club's right to exercise what it considers good business judgment, hard as it is to deal with yet another disappointment with more to come most likely. We're seeing a ton of angst about players who were #2 starters and are just as likely to be worse than that in 2020 rather than better. I have a hunch that there's a Plan B to Wheeler, MadBum, Ryu, and Keuchel, and the reason we're hearing the Twins listed as one of the half dozen teams in the hunt is because they actually ARE. They're not going to take a shot if the prey is out of their range however. Plan B here we come. It'll be interesting.

The two are close. Fangraphs gives Lewis the edge by about one slot in the rankings. So you're absolutely right, you have no idea if they made a mistake or not.

I'll repeat: solve the rotation problem as best you can, through FA or trades. It won't be an Ace. There were two of them, and that wasn't happening. And please don't dismiss the reports that, according to sources other than the Twins, Falvey communicated they were ready to go further with their offer and were told not to bother, that #2 starter Wheeler wasn't leaving the east coast. That said, they perhaps should have avoided this pickle in the first place, something you've suggested a billion times.

Wheeler was not viewed as an Ace until 18 teams chased him in FA, but he WAS a 1st round guy. Pineda WAS an impact guy. So was Odorizzi. Neither guy was better than Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, Verlander. All drafted 1/1 I believe, none fitting this club's budget or that pitcher's interests. The comlaints about that are tiring and hint at myopia. Perez was signed as a #5 starter. A really good decision at the time. As I made clear in my comment, I don't see evidence that supports the fairly common criticism of the Twins that OTHER clubs routinely convert later draft picks into one of those Aces. I pointed to the one exception I can find in the last decade of perhaps doing it more than once, or coming close, and that's Cleveland with Kluber, and then Clevinger and Bieber. I didn't express faith, as I'm not qualified to really have a strong conviction. I expressed hope, and based it on specific points, being Falvey's involvement with Cleveland, and the things that have been reported and in evidence regarding the changes and pretty promising minor league performances from those prospects. As I described, even the 1st round history on those who were "no-brainers" has been abysmal. My intention was to shed light on the fact that there has been no simple answer to the question of how you find that elusive Ace, so I disagree with the simplistic notion that all you have to do is be smart enough to draft an Ace. It's really, really important to not be dismissive of the facts brought forward by Major League Ready. Teams draft, expecting an Ace. Teams sign FA's expecting an Ace. Look at the record. Fans with almost every franchise are saying exactly the same things Mike is saying. I think the Ace worshipping is way overdone, for a number of reasons. One, the Hamptons often become Martin Perez wannabes. Or Lester becomes Lester. Second, injuries. Third, legitimate requirements in MOST clubs' situation to not become one of the clubs enjoying "financial inflexibility", the new market inefficiency. Few around here, or on the CWS or a dozen other blogs, disagrees that Wheeler and MadBum would be good decisions. What drives me nuts is how people make it sound like Falvey is related to the greeter at Walmart and gets in before the place opens and grabs Wheeler off a sales table. Go get what you can, Mr. Falvey. Be good and get lucky.

Trade or sign who they can, Mike. It won't be an Ace. This FO have had one shot at selecting a pitcher who the pros thought might be an Ace. They chose to go with Royce Lewis instead of Hunter Greene and Gore. Do you want to go on record that they screwed that one up? I love reminding you that you favored Gausman over Buxton and were pretty clear about that. Again, you can't keep pinning past decisions on this new organization. Let that go.

On the subject of where do Aces come from, let's first think about how many active pitchers you can name who: 1) used to be Aces or near-Aces but ain't anymore: Hamels, Wainwright, Price, MadBum, Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, Jose Fernandez?... point being to acknowledge performance volatility and shelf life; 2) might become Aces: Giolito, Kopech, Buehler, Nola, Soroka, Whitley, Puk, Bieber, Clevinger? ... point being it's not a long list; 3) are Aces now or have been for a season at least, and might be again: Greinke, Verlander, Cole, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sonny Gray, deGrom, Kluber, Strasburg?...point being again, it's not a long list So, if you combine the current Aces and aspiring ones, you basically have one for every other team. Now, if you peek back at the last decade of 1st round draft picks, you'll count about 14 guys who all the pundits described as having that elusive Ace ceiling. Thats 1.5 guys per draft. Let's see how that group is faring: yes, a decade ago, Gerrit Cole came along. Sweet. Wanna count Bauer in there as an Ace? Cool. Wanna count Mize, Hunter Greene, Gore, Kopech, and Ian Anderson as sure bets? Well, okay, but...now you need to sort through all the OTHER guys who were gonna be Aces: Bundy, Kyle Zimmer, Gausman, Jon Gray, Appel, Rodon, Kolek, Aiken. I know I'm missing names of a few current Aces. But not many! And the thing is, almost EVERY ONE of the names above was a first round selection in the draft. Repeat: almost every one of them. People say, well, other teams are so much better at developing Aces from later round selections. My question is, exactly who are these teams, and exactly who are these developed Aces from deep in the bowels of the draft? Aha! You know who has by far the best recent track record in that regard? Kluber, Clevinger, and Bieber were all 4th round picks. That's Falvey's old team. I'm not going to opine that Falvey is bringing some of that magic dust to the Twins organization and that we should EXPECT results like that soon, but OTOH, as Parker Hageman and others are pointing out, there is enough of a revolution happening in the area of pitching development to at least not be despairing. Let's hope they have something brewing with guys like Balazovic, Ober, Colima, Dobnak, Enlow, Sands... And yes, this doesn't solve the rotation problem in 2020. And pointing out how hard it is to find true Aces is not excuse-making.

Exactly the kind of trade I want this FO to make when it develops a surplus on the major league roster. And Cave is redundant.

You cherrypicker you.

How pessimistic of you. Just wait til Wes works his magic.

No orange lips

NO!!!!! NOT THOSE TWO!!!! ANYONE BUT THOSE TWO!!!

Yup. Falvey and the other nine FO guys are just sitting around the hotel suite having a no pants day eating Cheetos.

What's an iphone? Personally, I'll be critical of Falvey if he fails to deliver one more starter that is a consensus frontline guy. I'm already slightly critical of him for putting himself in a position this off-season of perhaps having to drastically overpay in prospects to get that done. I wanted him to procure one more starter LAST off-season. But I won't criticize him for being outbid for any of these second tier FA's, as I trust that he has a clearing price in mind for each and every one of them, and I agree with that approach. That said, I watched an extremely fun 101-win team last year that is basically entirely in place. That was an awesome accomplishment, and I give Falvey a lot of credit for that. Still holding out hope for Ryu, and then one of those make-good guys like Wood, Teheran, Gausman...

Can I see a pic and possibly get her number?

Yeah, and let's not pretend that we were even all that excited about Garver when he first came up either. The guy was the 19th CATCHER selected in the 2013 draft. I don't remember a single person saying they thought he was a future star. I'm not sure he ever made the org's top 10 prospects rankings, and if so, barely. Best to sit back and enjoy rather than to form strong outlooks about these players. You never know when you're going to get the next Garver or the next Oswaldo Arcia.

I think it's a bit early to draw conclusions and declare that the organization has built a special capacity with respect to pitching development. However, we might be seeing a few big picture hints about their beliefs, philosophy, and strategy. Some sort of random things: 1) They have continued the trend of aggressively adding coaches from the college ranks who have been groomed in the new sciences. 2) In the 2019 draft, they selected and signed 15+ college pitchers, virtually two-thirds of their choices. A plausible theory? A belief that development is more cerebral than we've traditionally thought it was, and they want good students learning, not just experiencing, and they want them taught by teachers, not just coaches. It's possible they have an even stronger conviction about the power of best practices in this area than we know. 3) The Twins have historically been, IMO, much better than average at identifying talent, but when it comes to pitching, not so hot at converting talent into skills. Lots of examples of later round talent, maybe at times despite not benefitting from the best development plan, that emerged anyway: Hildenberger, Rogers, Duffey, Stashak from the draft, Smeltzer, Harper, Dobnak, Littell from elsewhere. 4) And maybe now, Duffey, Rogers, Stashak, Dobnak, Littell, all of whom produced at high levels in 2019, represent the first hints that this organization really IS on the forefront. None of these guys was ever highly regarded. Rogers was the 340th player taken in his draft class. Dobnak was the only independent league acquisition who stepped on a postseason field. Not proof of anything, but a possible sign. I hope Parker Hageman continues to share things as he has in the past. I don't understand much of it, but it's still enlightening. Caveat: it unnerves me a bit to read all the "Wes Johnson's magic" comments. These are billion dollar enterprises. Most are no longer run like hobbies. Most clubs won't fall very far behind on these new frontiers, IMO.

You wrote this in 2015, right?

Mike, I hope I'm not the only one who noticed your deep concern about the organization saving money. HAHAHAHA!