cmathewson

If Gibson's innings will be limited, why waste them in AAA? Why not make him the long man and bring him into the rotation when he's up to 50 innings or do? Also, why do we need three catchers again? Butera didn't start the season with the Twins last year. Here's hoping they don't waste a roster spot on him again, at least not on the opening day roster.

He reminds me of Jason Kubel before the knee. Maybe we'll see what Kubel's career would have been like but for the career-threatening injury.

drjim--Ryan said they were considering that as one way to manage his innings load this year.

Oops, forgot about Duensing and Burnett. Duensing instead of Roenicke. Don't know what to do about Burnett. If he has options, he's on the Rochester shuttle.

Here's hoping for a few spring surprises. Here are my picks to break camp: C: Joe Mauer 1B Justin Morneau 2B Brian Dozier 3B Trevor Plouffe SS Pedro Florimon LF Josh WIllinghan CF Aaron Hicks RF Chris Parmelee DH Ryan Doumit Util Jamey Carrol Util Eduardo Escobar 4th OF Darin Mastroiani Starter 1: Vance Worley Starter 2: Scott Diamond Starter 3: Mike Pelfrey Starter 4: Kevin Correia Starter 5: Liam Hendriks Bullpen Long: Kyle Gibson (moves into the rotation mid-year) Bullpen middle: Casey Fien Bullpen Middle: Josh Roenicke Bullpen Short: Tyler Robertson Bullpen Short: Jared Burton Bullpen Closer: Glen Perkins Rochester shuttle: Drew Butera, Eduardo Escobar, Samuel Deduno, Cole DeVries, Pedro Hernandez, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroiani, Liam Hendriks DL: Anthony Swarzak (out of options) Pick to stick pitcher: Vance Worley Pick to stick hitter: Chris Parmelee Dark horse pitcher: Rich Harden Dark horse hitter: Oswaldo Arcia Traded before the deadline: Josh Willingham, Mike Pelfrey See you by August: Rich Harden, Oswaldo Arcia See you in September: Chris Hermann, Trevor May, Alex Myer, whoever they acquire for Willingham, Pelfrey

In other organizations, he'd be the consensus top prospect.

Some of those weight totals are low. Rodriguez is a monster. I find it hard to believe he's only 225; 240 seems more reasonable. And Cabrera is over 250 easily. Still if Sano continues to grow, he's destined for first base.

I agree with this, but I am at a loss to think of too many players who did not earn major league promotion, outside of last year's pitching staff, in which the whole starting staff went down to injury or utter ineffectiveness and needed emergency replacements. I guess they rushed Gomez and Casilla. More often than not, though, they have done the opposite. Thus, for example, Bartlett was held at AAA for two years in which he had OBPs over .400 each year, while the Twins wore out aged utility players every day. By the time he came up, he was 26 and already starting to wear down. That was the Twins way (Cuddyer, Kubel, etc.), unless the player was a rising star like Mauer. The best examples of clearing the path were Pierzinski for Mauer and Mientkievicz for Morneau. This year, I see the center field situation in that light. Hicks showed he was ready by the end of last year and that made our two CFers expendable, where they could be used to acquire pitching. Soon we'll see something similar with Arcia coming in for Willingham. I suppose I could say not acquiring someone is like clearing a path for Dozier. Ditto for SS, where neither young candidate earned promotion, but there were no good (internal) alternatives. As to the starting pitching, it wasn't as much clearing a path as scrapping what we had and starting over with whatever we could get our hands on. Gibson and Hendriks earned it, as did Diamond. But outside of Worely (my pick to stick), the others are retreads, who will take up temporary space until May and Myers are ready. Like 2012, Ryan will not be patient with the retreads (he canned Marquis after 6 starts and DFAed Blackburn despite a large contract obligation). When it comes to former college pitchers, the Twins have been aggressive with promotion. I see that repeating itself in 2013. Not signing a big free agent gives them the opportunity to be aggressive. I think that's Seth's point.

That's my biggest complaint with this site. I used to be a regular on TwinkieTown and they redesigned, so many of the good writers left. I came here looking for the best writers, which the site has, but the comment function is seriously broken. I am a patient man, but you'd think they would have fixed it by now.

It's amazing how different Bill Smith's philosophy was from Ryan's. I keep focusing on one quote, which Ryan said to LEN III after Smith was fired "I will be more patient than Bill." Pretty much sums it up. Smith was in perpetual "win now" mode. So, though 2010 was a glorious year, we saw the after affects in 2011, when the Twins had gone from penthouse to outhouse both on the major league and minor league levels. That said, the good side of Smith's legacy will be in his signings of Sano, Kepler and Polanco. Though he was a comparative spendthrift and an impatient sort at the major league level (trading Ramos for Capps e.g.), he also spent more money on international prospects than any Twins GM. One way or another, you have to spend money to get winning talent. I'm OK with spending for the long haul. What they can't do is what they got themselves into prior to the slotting system: Drafting the likes of Ben Revere in the first round because he agreed ahead of time to third-round money. The Twins lucked out with him, but it's not sustainable to starve signing budgets. Fortunately, they have not backed off of spending on the draft and internationally like they have at the major league level.

It's amazing how different Bill Smith's philosophy was from Ryan's. I keep focusing on one quote, which Ryan said to LEN III after Smith was fired "I will be more patient than Bill." Pretty much sums it up. Smith was in perpetual "win now" mode. So, though 2010 was a glorious year, we saw the after affects in 2011, when the Twins had gone from penthouse to outhouse both on the major league and minor league levels. That said, the good side of Smith's legacy will be in his signings of Sano, Kepler and Polanco. Though he was a comparative spendthrift and an impatient sort at the major league level (trading Ramos for Capps e.g.), he also spent more money on international prospects than any Twins GM. One way or another, you have to spend money to get winning talent. I'm OK with spending for the long haul. What they can't do is what they got themselves into prior to the slotting system: Drafting the likes of Ben Revere in the first round because he agreed ahead of time to third-round money. The Twins lucked out with him, but it's not sustainable to starve signing budgets. Fortunately, they have not backed off of spending on the draft and internationally like they have at the major league level.

I hear ya. They have been "pretty good" over there in three of the last 10 years, by my estimation: Bartlett's two good years and Hardy's year. Otherwise, it's been a revolving door of horse hockey that belied the other success we had. And I thought they would try to upgrade, at least to give Florimon competition. But apparently Ryan wanted to just focus on pitching this offseason. I can only hope they get someone in on a minor league deal before spring training. But whoever they get is not likely to be much better than Florimon. Perhaps they think he earned a shot to start based on his decent play in the last two months with the Twins (one really good month and one sub-par month). The only other thing is I know several of the coaches are very high on him despite his numbers, including Gardy and Bruno. If Florimon tanks it, I'm sure SS will be tops on the list for a midseason acquisition. I expect Ryan to be active. I would think Willingham will fetch a decent shortstop plus a prospect.

Thank you. I appreciate your compliment. Seriously, it would be great to get a shortstop who does both. But those guys are pretty rare and really expensive. Also, the Twins have been really bad at developing them over the years, something I have repeatedly blamed on Gardy. And when they did get one, they let him go for peanuts--one of Bill Smith's biggest blunders. So here we are, without many good alternatives and the closest prospect two years away. The free agent market looks thin. I would have signed one of those guys to at least be competition for Florimon. But I don't think any of them is better overall than Pedro. That is controversial, I know, but that was the gist of my post. I was reacting to a post that criticised his offense and said little about his defense. In that, it seemed to miss the point. His glove makes up for a lot. Relative to a guy who will hit .250/.280/.320 (my projection for the best FA out there), he's better overall. And yes, we have enough offense to absorb a #9 hitter who hits .230/.280/.300, as long as we pitch better. Offense wasn't our problem last year. Pitching was. Florimon will actually help this contact pitching staff by getting to more balls.

Anybody can see he's no offensive threat. But that is not why you have shortstops. You have shortstops to turn as many ground balls up the middle and in the hole into outs as possible. And he is the best at this skill we've had in a while. JJ hardy was very good at catching the ball and I lament his unceremonious exit. But, other than him, the Twins have not had a shortstop who could cover as much ground as Florimon since Guzman was 21. He's no star. But he will hold his own at the position. Florimon reminds me of Greg Gagne at that age, who could barely get the bat on the ball, but he could sure get his glove on it. And when he got leather on it, he made outs. That is the promise of Florimon. I'm not saying he will be the next Greg Gagne. But he has a chance to fill the position until Santana or Polanco are ready to take over. Dozier will hit better, but he's no match for Florimon with the glove, and that is what matters on this team. Anybody who watched the team last year will tell you that.

1. If he hasn't been signed yet, he is highly unlikely to have any trade value at any time. 2. The Twins have no room on the 40-man roster. If they sign Joe Saunders (to whom they have offered a contract), they will have to remove someone from the 40 man and risk losing him. I'm OK with doing it for Saunders. But I have zero interest in losing a decent young player for an aging and injury prone mediocre reliever.

I can see a scenario where he is the everyday left fielder for the Twins by the end of 2013. If he continues to hit for Rochester as he did for New Britain, and if the Twins get a good offer for Willingham during the trade season, he'd be an easy choice to take over in left for The Hammer. Gardy is really high on him and will give him every opportunity to show what he can do in spring training. Then he needs to play everyday in AAA until the Twins make room for him.

Please no. He is the Nick Punto of relievers. Occasionally brilliant. Frequently horrible. Mostly mediocre. And a favorite of one Ronald Clyde Gardenhire.

Nice list. I'd switch out Santana and Polanco. But, otherwise, not a lot to argue with here. Good job.

Ryan said he expects Pelfrey to be fully ready for Spring Training and to start the year with the team. Perhapsthat's over-optimistic. But I trust he has some medical reason for saying that. Pelfrey did have to pass an extensive physical before the contract was official.

I doubt Swarzak survives, and he'll get claimed. That's one spot. I hope they don't need three catchers out of the chute. So they could drop Butters, and he won't get claimed. Haren will start the year in AAA. I doubt they sign Saunders, though I hope they can. If they do, DeVries would need to get DFAed.

I suppose Pelfrey won't be treated with kid gloves. This is most likely his audition for other teams. It's a long shot he pitches for the Twins next year, so why not throw him out there until he gets a dead arm? That said, 120 innings is a common benchmark for guys to start getting dead arm a year after Tommy John. So let's start Gibson as the long man in the bullpen (instead of Swarzak). Give him about 50 innings in that role. When Pelfrey wears out, move Gibson to the rotation and move Pelfrey back to the bullpen (or trade him for a prospect). That'll give Gibson 15 starts or so and 120 innings overall.

Both Gibson and Pelfrey will be limited to 120 innings or so. Why waste Gibson's innings at AAA? Why not start him as the fifth starter while Pelfrey works his way back in the bullpen (perhaps on the DL to start the year and just throwing bullpens with Cuellar)? Then swap them when Gibson hits 100 innings? Even if they sign Saunders, I'd rather have that duo than Hendriks. As to Harden, he is healthier now than he has been in three years. The underlying problem that eventually led to surgery happened in 2007. He pitched with it, and pitched pretty well with it, until 2010. He's a year removed from surgery. I'm sure he'll need to establish himself in AAA. But he could be a dark horse later in the year. His name at least should have been mentioned.

I can see the comparison in terms of stuff but not durability. Marquis was a huge injury risk when he signed. Also, the kind of thing Marquis went through to miss spring training is as likely to happen to Correia as getting hit by lightening. I was referring to your first post expressing disappointment with Ryan, comparing this offseason with the Royals. Not a valid comparison for the reasons I gave. Ryan traded for talent that will be ready in 2014. The Royals traded for talent that is ready now and will be gone in 2014. I'd rather wait than give up top talent to win now. I don't agree. They now have four highly touted pitching prospects who are former first round draft picks and who will likely be ready by 2014 (counting Wimmers). Add Worley and Diamond and they have the makings of a very good young staff. When people do simple numerical analysis of the Twins starters in 2012, they seem to forget that much of the horror happened with guys who will not even be in the running for jobs in 2013 (Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano, Marquis, Swarzak). Some guys who will be in the running actually pitched decently (Diamond, Deduno, DeVries). Based on what I saw in the second half, combined with the additions, it won't be nearly as bad as the numbers indicated in 2012. It won't be enough to contend, but we won't have to play from 5 runs down in the second inning every game like last year.

I agree with this. The reality: The free-agent market was thin. Sanchez was the best guy available for anything close to what the Twins could pay and Detroit overpaid for him by at least $5 million a year. I would have liked to get McCarthy, but he's not had one healthy season in his whole career. Ryan did the cost/benefit analysis and decided to sign the guys he did. He traded what he could trade for pitching without completely ransacking the roster. One thing that is taken for granted by all those down on Correia is missing bats is the only valuable thing in a pitcher. The stat I'd like to see is pitches per out. I don't know if anyone even tracks this, but it is clearly what the Twins care about. To get innings out of a guy, he has to get a lot of quick outs. Strikeout pitchers throw a lot of pitches. So they end up eating fewer innings than guys who pitch to contact. The Twins needed a guy who would give them innings. In this market, it meant getting a guy who didn't strike guys out. To have both, you'd need to spend between $80 and $100 million and Ryan was not going to do that, nor should he. So he made a modest investment to get an innings eater. Correia might not win more than 10 games, but he will take pressure off the bullpen and the rest of the staff, which is a work in progress with a lot of young guys coming off of surgery. You can say all you want about what Ryan should have done. This is Nelson's third polemic on the topic (counting filling in for the Geek on the podcast). But unless you're prepared to do the cost/benefit analysis of what was available, the words are sung with discord. The Royals acquired pitching by depleting their deep farm system. That wasn't an option for the Twins either. Aside from center fielders, the Twins did not have a lot of surplus talent at any one position. I for one am glad they didn't send someone like Sano to the Rays for Shields. Let's see how this plays out. Sometimes fans have to be patient to ultimately get what they want.

We've got the best right handed power hitting prospect we've had since Killer and we are worried about his defense? Really? They moved him from short because he weighed 250 pounds as an 18 year old and he's still growing. Hopefully he can stay at third, but he might end up at first. Short was never a likely option.