cmathewson

It only makes sense to remove outliers in large statistical samples. Relievers rarely if ever compile large enough statistical samples to make this work. Bert talks about relievers' ERA like you really can't count on it because one bad outing can skew it a lot. There is some truth to that. But when you only have a few outings, one bad one is meaningful. In Burton's case, he has had almost as many bad outings as good ones. There were several in a row where he got two outs, walked a couple of guys, and gave up a homer or a bases clearing double or something. He's been a little better of late. But he is definitely showing signs of the league figuring out his change. When that happens. he's D-O-N-E. I think he's on the brink, if not there already. Guerrier has been equally inconsistent and mostly bad. Neither really deserves a spot on the roster. I would be happy to get rid of both and call up one of the stud relievers down on the farm in addition to Pino, Ryan Pressley, for example.

I don't think the Twins give a lick about a guy's velo if he gets people out. Pino is exhibit A. You don't option people based on expected failure. You option them based on current failure. If you look at how Gardy is using Thielbar, there is very little chance he gets optioned right now. He's the closest thing to a lefty specialist the Twins have. Also, if they option Theilbar, they have to make a second move to open a spot on the 40 man. They could put Pelfrey on the 60-day, but I'm sure they don't want to if they don't have to. I would look at DFAing either Burton or Guerrier. Either one would kill two turds with one stone, 25 man and 40 man.

He completely ignored trends. Pinto is hitting .125/.147/.250/.397 over his last 28. At this moment, he is clearly not one of "the Twins best hitters."

If you could only have one stat, OBP would be it. It correlates to team runs more than any other. And if his OBP is close to Mauer's, it means it's not bad. Not to say he doesn't have a lot of work to do. Just that the org should not give up on him. If this constitutes "blowing his chance," they are not patient enough.

He has an Arcia arm. When he was unknown, guys ran on it. If memory serves, he had double digit assists last year, in just three month and change. His assists are down this year, but his arm is well known and he's been mostly a part-time player for the last month.

I guess we could compare him to Ben Revere. Ben Revere has an OBP of .302, with 7 XBH in 228 PAs. Hicks has an OBP of .338 with 6 XBH in 156 PAs. Offensively, I'd rather have Hicks. Defensively? Revere has the better UZR/150 after a slow start. But I have a hard time believing anyone would be calling for sending him down because his batting average is .286 and he has the smile and the appearance of running really fast. FWIW, I think they should send Hicks down to get used to hitting right handed against right handed pitching. But his play alone doesn't deserve the kind of angst we're hearing.

Guys don't throw four balls to him without throwing strikes intermixed. He works counts. He fouls off pitches. He works for his walks. Why would they give him free passes if he can't hit at all? Drew Butera had a similar approach when he was with the Twins. He'd work counts and get into 3-2 situations a lot. Then they'd throw it right down the middle and he'd make an out. Hicks is not doing that. Now that's not saying much. But it's a gross exaggeration to say that he's only good at taking pitches.

I gotta follow this Morrie Silver dude.

We watch these players for a few minutes a day, and somehow we feel qualified to say they lack drive, or heart or whatever--judgements based on the most fleeting perceptions. He's an elite athlete because he has worked hard and has the drive to succeed. It's asinine to suggest that he got hurt on purpose. He hurt it diving for a ball. You don't do that because you lack drive or you want to hang out in the training room. You can question the wisdom, but you can't question the drive. And anyone who's ever had a coach get on you for hustle knows it doesn't matter what the score is, if he's on your case about it, you hustle. You run in from the outfield. You run out from the dugout. You run to first after a walk. You run into the dugout after the inning. You do anything to impress upon your manager that you do hustle. All the time. The results speak for themselves--sub-par. I suspect he'll be going down to Rochester on Friday when they activate Fuld. Hopefully the lack of scrutiny and the change of scenery helps him. I'll be rooting for a great two-plus months. If he's the player they thought he was when they traded or waived every other center fielder above A ball two years in a row to make room for him, he'll respond and be back up here before the end of the year. If he doesn't respond, I'm sure there's 20 other teams that would love to have him.

Berardino is the best we've had in a long time. I like Miller. I really liked Christensen until he moved to the Gopher's beat. I remeber LEN III used to complain about Christensen "eating his lunch". To my mind, he didn't do anything all that special. He just worked hard and is a great writer.

Fair enough. But when you are publicly criticized for failing to hustle or prepare or anything and you've been effectively benched for it, you hustle on every play. What I'm saying is, they can't complain about him not hustling and then complain about him hustling.

I have been taking a short hiatus, but I have to comment on this one. First, I agree that this is a typical LEN III thing, using "unnamed" sources to make claims about a player. He is one of the worst at this. Who knows what was actually said or gestured about Hicks. It could be simple frustration that LEN III misinterpreted. He seems to be getting lazier. Yesterday, he was quoting Phil Miller--his colleague--in a blog post. So I take everything he writes with a huge grain of salt. Second, there is something to the way the Twins are managing Hicks that makes little sense. They promote him twice before he's ready, all the while removing any depth behind him both times. When he struggles, they don't talk about on-field performance but work ethic or getting-after-it-ness or busting-your-tail-icity or whatever. They set him up to fail and then they complain about him publicly when he fails. It is the worst sort of management. LEN II might be exaggerating now, but both Antony and Gardy have said things publicly twice this year to throw him under the bus while they took zero responsibility for their mismanagement. BTW, his injuries are all of the hustle variety. The current one is from making the game-ending diving catch on Saturday. For them to complain about that kind of injury in light of their other (purported) claims about his laziness is disingenuous. Third, I agree about not giving up on him. He needs to go down and have a half season of dominance. Then we'll see where he fits. Giving up on a former number 18 overall pick is just a waste. And he deserves better. Fourth, they aren't paying attention if they think he has continued to struggle in the kind of way Florimon struggled when he was up here. He's been doing OK (not great, not horrible) when given the opportunity for the last month. If you don't believe me, check out the OPS numbers: Last 7: 1.100, Last 14: .719, Last 28 .708.

I think he needs to get his innings in six at a time, and not two at a time. He needs to be able to pitch 180 innings next year. So 130 this year is the quota, maybe a few more. Tough to get that in the pen.

No one is saying this is the final piece. Just a step in the right direction. Incidentally, it also shows a greater willingness to jettison sunk costs. I am sad for Kubel, but he will make $3M to watch from the couch this year. Correia should be on notice. Lost in all this is the man taking the questions at the press conference. Terry Ryan was front and center and appears to be back at the helm. Hopefully this is the first of several moves by the Commodore.

Arcia in the lineup today.

Good luck Jason. I'll miss you.

This is the most charitable interpretation. With relievers, losing the DH in the late innings is no big whoop. He just doesn't want to lose his DH with the starter on the mound.

May has a 1.5 BB/9 this year, ballpark. He turned a corner in the fall league and carried that into this year. He's had a couple of clunkers. But that's par for the course. If he's not ready now, he sure doesn't have much more to work on. Meyer needs a month to get more consistent with the change. But we're not talking about bringing him up just yet. Worst case, May gets five starts to sink or swim, needs a flotation device, and you bring up Meyer to replace him. Or Darnell, or Johnson, or Pinto. If it was just about winning now and Correia was helping us do that, I could take Gardy's comments literally. But in the context of that night, when he gave up a four-run lead and only lasted five innings, what he said was inaccurate. You have to question his motives when you catch him deliberately deviating from the truth. I think it's a shot across the FO's bow. But there are many ways to twist and turn a Gardy rant.

Sunk costs. You can pay a guy to keep him and help you lose, or you can pay him and let him walk away, to ultimately help you win. I think they're actually closer to doing the latter than Gardy's comments indicate. As I said earlier, I don't interpret them literally. "We're paying him big money to [give up six runs in five innings]" sounds like taking the party line with a twist of sarcasm.

Ok, I grant you he hasn't been driving the ball this year the way he has in the past. Does that mean he won't in the future? His history suggests he has decent power from the right side. He's kind of feeling his way right now. I would hesitate to draw sweeping conclusions from his hitting this year.

I think you have to drive the ball to hit doubles. He hit a double last night. Is that enough? No. But don't exaggerate. I also think he needs a chance to play everyday, so I agree he should go down to get that chance. But he had 24 XBH in four months last year as a major leaguer. It's not like he can't do it.

I don't think so. He had played 24 games as a CFer and 2 games as a left fielder in his professional career. It is not easy moving from center to the corners. Kirby even struggled with it. Balls hook or slice and you have to learn how to track them before you can go get them. It is irresponsible to put a guy in a corner outfield spot who has barely ever played there in his career.

100 MPH fastball, 93 MPH slider, second round. What's the problem?

I think it's the right thing, considering that Santana is en fuego loco and Fuld is out of options. But I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that he won't have a part to play in the 2015 team. He needs more at bats against right handed pitchers as a right handed batter. But I wouldn't rule out an August call-up. He's still the best defensive center fielder in the organization, and the Twins will need his glove when they go to the playoffs. And yes, you just read that.

Lots of people are saying it's a forgone conclusion that Hicks go down and work on his hitting. Meanwhile, he is hitting .825 over the last 14 and .752 over the last 28. Pinto, on the other hand, is hitting .293 over his last 14 and .623 over his last 28. He clearly needs more at bats to work on his hitting.