Brandon Warne

The two most recent additions to this Minnesota Twins team were to help prop up a sagging bullpen. True enough, the unit was adequate in the first half as the Twins raced out to as high as 11 games over .500. But early-season darlings Blaine Boyer and the since-demoted Aaron Thompson hit proverbial walls, leaving the Twins’ fans wondering if the club would take steps to address the bullpen before it ultimately sapped their playoff chances. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA Today Sports Photo of Glen Perkins The two most recent additions to this Minnesota Twins team were to help prop up a sagging bullpen. True enough, the unit was adequate in the first half as the Twins raced out to as high as 11 games over .500. But early-season darlings Blaine Boyer and the since-demoted Aaron Thompson hit proverbial walls, leaving the Twins’ fans wondering if the club would take steps to address the bullpen before it ultimately sapped their playoff chances. And the answer as of right now is … sort of? That’s not meant to be a backhanded jab at Terry Ryan, who has built this into a team that has not only surprised people on the national front, but led the teams around them to make moves as well. Do the Tigers sell off if the upstart Twins don’t exist? Maybe, maybe not. That might be more of a reflection of the Royals — the guaranteed Central champs — as well as the surrounding wild card landscape, and it might just as well be where the Tigers are on their winning curve as well. But I’d have to believe just the mere existence of the Twins — 3.5 games up on the Tigers in the standings even now — played at least some part. And if that wild card situation daunted the Tigers, why didn’t it scare off the Twins? The teams were virtually tied at that fork in the road, and yet Dave Dombrowski — since deposed — decided to sell hard on assets like David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria. Part of it has to do with winning windows and where each team is. The Tigers’ would seem to be drawing to a close, while the Twins are just starting to open theirs, even if this season is a bit like cracking them open during that first early March heatwave that sees temperatures rise into the 30s. And so rather than jumping headlong into those frigid waters, Ryan dipped his toes in by acquiring Rays reliever Kevin Jepsen. But hold the phone; aren’t the Rays right in the thick of things, too? As a matter of fact, entering play Monday they were just one game behind the Twins at an even 62-62. Unfortunately for the Rays, that still means there are five teams ahead of them in the race — including the Yankees and Rangers who are the current leaders. In a sense, the Rays figured they’d get wherever they were going, with or without Jepsen. And that’s sort of how the average reliever is viewed in today’s game. Here’s a dose of context: The Twins were a markedly better bullpen in the first half; that much is known for sure. In the first half, Twins relievers carried a 3.71 ERA. Since the break that has swollen by more than a run to 4.81, and just six teams — including the Tigers — are worse. But let’s frame those numbers in terms of the modern bullpen. Surely not everyone’s bullpen is comprised of flamethrowers like the Royals, or with two lockdown closers at the back end like the Yankees, right? Well, when the Twins were sitting at a 3.71 ERA at the All-Star break, they were still tied with the White Sox for just 18th overall. Throw in FIP for good measure, and the smoke-and-mirrors Twins had the seventh-worst mark across the league, bound for regression and limited by a lack of strikeout stuff. Here’s some more context: For the season, the Twins have a 4.04 bullpen ERA. That’s among the 10 worst marks in baseball, and is backed by a 4.11 FIP that basically says “what you see is what you get.” The Twins are also dead last in strikeouts at 6.7 per nine innings. In fact, just three teams are ahead of the Twins by less than a strikeout per nine innings. The Rays bullpen that decided it didn’t need Jepsen to get where it’s going? They’ve fanned 8.6 batters per nine this year. To put a tidy bow on it all, here’s what the average AL reliever looks like. 8.4 K/9 3.64 ERA 44.8 percent ground ball rate No Twins reliever with any semblance of a sample size is striking out that many batters. Glen Perkins is fanning 8.2 batters per nine as the Twins’ best — when healthy — reliever, and he’s still below the AL average for his contemporaries. Recently-added Jepsen is right at that 8.4 mark — that’s in just 10.2 innings — but it’s one he’s only reached twice in the past five seasons. Casey Fien used to be able to reach that mark but has seen his cutter become very hittable over this season. Even the ground ball rate is a hard one to match, as relievers should usually be able to: A. Strike batters out, or B. Get grounders, in large part due to coming into double play situations in crunch time. But the Twins still fall short of that as a whole with a 43 percent rate. So essentially, the Twins are a group of flyballing non-strikeout guys who walk nobody. In this day and age, that’s not really a sustainable bullpen plan. Going out and getting Jepsen made plenty of sense, even if it was met with trepidation. The most important part of his acquisition was that he’s under control for one more season after this, thereby not leaving the Twins viewing this contention run as a short-term thing. Jepsen brings a lot of things the Twins don’t have within — namely, throwing 95 mph — and didn’t cost too terribly much. It was a sensible addition. So too is the recent acquisition of Neal Cotts, a left-hander from Milwaukee who has gained steam as the season has gone on. At the time of his acquisition, Cotts had a 3.26 ERA that had been as high as 6.10 back in early May. Cotts has been rather good while working in low-leverage spots for the Brewers all season long. From June 1 until the trade, Cotts put together a 28-inning stretch with a 1.93 ERA, 26-11 K/BB ratio and just a .654 OPS against. He does have his limitations — he’s signed just through this season and should really only be used against lefties — but he does have value. Depending on the return when the trade is finalized, this has potential to be a shrewd move by Ryan. Left-handed hitters are batting just .179/.222/.333 against Cotts this year. Righties, however, are hitting .279/.375/.462. But again, if he’s used properly, there’s some value here. The movement of Trevor May to the bullpen was certainly a puzzling one, but it would be lying to say he hasn’t taken to that role with aplomb. Of course, he was far more than adequate in the rotation, and moving him to the bullpen is like some bizarro Peter Pan move since the rotation isn’t exactly fortified. But the numbers for May in the bullpen speak for themselves: 2.00 ERA, 20-3 K/BB ratio in 18 innings and .243/.293/.357 line against. That’s elite late-inning relief in a spot where you need it. His stuff is also sizzling in smaller doses; his fastball averaged 93.0 mph in June according to Brooks Baseball. It’s now up to 96 mph in August. And if Perkins can come back from his neck injury to be anything close to what he was in the first half, suddenly you might have something. Jepsen, May and Perkins at the back end isn’t going to make anyone forget about Wade Davis and Greg Holland or Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, but it’s also a far cry from Boyer, Thompson and Fien. Furthermore, moving Fien into lower-leverage innings could be extremely useful as well; for all his issues, he’s still managed the second-lowest walk rate among 177 big league relievers that have thrown at least 30 innings. So while his 5.2 K/9 isn’t ideal to work the eighth or ninth with, he can still have some value working in earlier innings — especially if he faces mostly righties (.200/.222/.308). Having three lefties certainly doesn’t hurt either, especially considering the fact that Paul Molitor can use Brian Duensing as a long guy and let Ryan O’Rourke (.152/.250/.250 against lefties) and Cotts face just lefties later in games. It’s not a perfect bullpen, but for now it’s something Molitor can piecemeal together until September, when rosters expand and perhaps Ryan Pressly and even Boyer — in a reduced role — can return as well. One thing remains for sure, and that is that they’ll need all hands on deck to stay in this race. This content originated at Cold Omaha here, please consider clicking through -- NEW WEBSITE -- to support it. View full article

The two most recent additions to this Minnesota Twins team were to help prop up a sagging bullpen. True enough, the unit was adequate in the first half as the Twins raced out to as high as 11 games over .500. But early-season darlings Blaine Boyer and the since-demoted Aaron Thompson hit proverbial walls, leaving the Twins’ fans wondering if the club would take steps to address the bullpen before it ultimately sapped their playoff chances. And the answer as of right now is … sort of? That’s not meant to be a backhanded jab at the expense of Terry Ryan, who has built this into a team that has not only surprised people on the national front, but led the teams around them to make moves as well. Do the Tigers sell off if the upstart Twins don’t exist? Maybe, maybe not. That might be more of a reflection of the Royals — the guaranteed Central champs — as well as the surrounding Wild Card landscape, and it might just as well be where the Tigers are on their winning curve as well. But I’d have to believe just the mere existence of the Twins — 3.5 games up on the Tigers in the standings even now — played at least some part. And if that Wild Card situation daunted the Tigers, why didn’t it scare off the Twins? The teams were virtually tied at that fork in the road, and yet Dave Dombrowski — since deposed — decided to sell hard on assets like David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria. Part of it has to do with winning windows and where each team is. The Tigers’ would seem to be drawing to a close, while the Twins are just starting to open theirs, even if this season is a bit like cracking them open during that first early March heatwave that sees temperatures rise into the 30s. And so rather than jumping headlong into those frigid waters, Ryan dipped his toes in by acquiring Rays reliever Kevin Jepsen. But hold the phone; aren’t the Rays right in the thick of things, too? As a matter of fact, entering play Monday they were just one game behind the Twins at an even 62-62. Unfortunately for the Rays, that still means there are five teams ahead of them in the race — including the Yankees and Rangers who are the current leaders. In a sense, the Rays figured they’d get wherever they were going, with or without Jepsen. And that’s sort of how the average reliever is viewed in today’s game. Here’s a dose of context: The Twins were a markedly better bullpen in the first half; that much is known for sure. In the first half, Twins relievers carried a 3.71 ERA. Since the break that has swollen by more than a run to 4.81, and just six teams — including the Tigers — are worse. But let’s frame those numbers in terms of the modern bullpen. Surely not everyone’s bullpen is comprised by flamethrowers like the Royals, or with two lockdown closers at the back end like the Yankees, right? Well, when the Twins were sitting at a 3.71 ERA at the All Star break, they were still tied with the White Sox for just 18th overall. Throw in FIP for good measure, and the smoke-and-mirrors Twins had the seventh-worst mark across the league, bound for regression and limited by a lack of strikeout stuff. Here’s some more context: For the season, the Twins have a 4.04 bullpen ERA. That’s among the 10 worst marks in baseball, and is backed by a 4.11 FIP that basically says “what you see is what you get.” The Twins are also dead last in strikeouts at 6.7 per nine innings. In fact, just three teams are ahead of the Twins by fewer than a strikeout per nine innings. The Rays bullpen that decided it didn’t need Jepsen to get where it’s going? They’ve fanned 8.6 batters per nine this year. To put a tidy bow on it all, here’s what the average AL reliever looks like. 8.4 K/9 3.64 ERA 44.8 percent groundball rate No Twins reliever with any semblance of a sample size is striking out that many batters. Glen Perkins is fanning 8.2 batters per nine as the Twins’ best — when healthy — reliever, and he’s still below the AL average for his contemporaries. Recently-added Jepsen is right at that 8.4 mark — that’s in just 10.2 innings — but it’s one he’s only reached twice in the past five seasons. Casey Fien used to be able to reach that mark but has seen his cutter become very hittable over this season. Even the groundball rate is a hard one to match, as relievers should usually be able to: A. Strike batters out, or B. Get grounders, in large part due to coming into double play situations in crunch time. But the Twins still fall short of that as a whole with a 43 percent rate. So essentially, the Twins are a group of flyballing non-strikeout guys who walk nobody. In this day and age, that’s not really a sustainable bullpen plan. Going out and getting Jepsen made plenty of sense, even if it was met with trepidation. The most important part of his acquisition was that he’s under control for one more season after this, thereby not leaving the Twins viewing this contention run as a short-term thing. Jepsen brings a lot of things the Twins don’t have within — namely, throwing 95 mph — and didn’t cost too terribly much. It was a sensible addition. So too is the recent acquisition of Neal Cotts, a left-hander from Milwaukee who has gained steam as the season has gone on. At the time of his acquisition, Cotts had a 3.26 ERA that had been as high as 6.10 back in early May. Cotts has been rather good while working in low-leverage spots for the Brewers all season long. From June 1 until the trade, Cotts put together a 28-inning stretch with a 1.93 ERA, 26-11 K/BB ratio and just a .654 OPS against. He does have his limitations — he’s signed just through this season and should really only be used against lefties — but he does have value. Depending on the return when the trade is finalized, this has potential to be a shrewd move by Ryan. Left-handed hitters are batting just .179/.222/.333 against Cotts this year. Righties, however, are hitting .279/.375/.462. But again, if he’s used properly, there’s some value here. The movement of Trevor May to the bullpen was certainly a puzzling one, but it would be lying to say he hasn’t taken to that role with aplomb. Of course, he was far more than adequate in the rotation, and moving him to the bullpen is like some bizarro Peter Pan move since the rotation isn’t exactly fortified. But the numbers for May in the bullpen speak for themselves: 2.00 ERA, 20-3 K/BB ratio in 18 innings and .243/.293/.357 line against. That’s elite late-inning relief in a spot where you need it. His stuff is also sizzling in smaller doses; his fastball averaged 93.0 mph in June according to Brooks Baseball. It’s now up to 96 mph in August. And if Perkins can come back from his neck injury to be anything close to what he was in the first half, suddenly you might have something. Jepsen, May and Perkins at the back end isn’t going to make anyone forget about Wade Davis and Greg Holland or Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, but it’s also a far cry from Boyer, Thompson and Fien. Furthermore, moving Fien into lower-leverage innings could be extremely useful as well; for all his issues, he’s still managed the second-lowest walk rate among 177 big league relievers that have thrown at least 30 innings. So while his 5.2 K/9 isn’t ideal to work the eighth or ninth with, he can still have some value working in earlier innings — especially if he faces mostly righties (.200/.222/.308). Having three lefties certainly doesn’t hurt either, especially considering the fact that Paul Molitor can use Brian Duensing as a long guy and let Ryan O’Rourke (.152/.250/.250 against lefties) and Cotts face just lefties later in games. It’s not a perfect bullpen, but for now it’s something Molitor can piecemeal together until September, when rosters expand and perhaps Ryan Pressly and even Boyer — in a reduced role — can return as well. One thing remains for sure, and that is that they’ll need all hands on deck to stay in this race. This content originated at Cold Omaha here, please consider clicking through -- NEW WEBSITE -- to support it.

Just stopped by the thread to say hi, and #StickWithHicks

Here's episode four: Brandon and Cole dive into a bevy of topics, including pitcher-catcher relations and the current state of the Twins. http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/the-breakdown-eps4 ALSO: HUGE guest upcoming in episode five. Already recorded, will be released this week.

Brandon and Cole dive into a bevy of topics, including pitcher-catcher relations and the current state of the Twins. http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/the-breakdown-eps4

(questions, comments and all that are more than welcome)

And finally, here's episode three. I'd say it is our best yet, but I am biased. I'll also tease that we have a huge guest booked, and we're hoping to get it done by the end of the week. http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/the-breakdown-eps-3-w-cole-devries-and-b

Here's the second edition of The Breakdown. Brandon and Cole are breaking down trade deadline and getting insights from a former major league player on spring training, trades, and preparation for big league pitchers. Check us out. http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/the-breakdown

Hello Twins Daily friends. I've started a podcast with former Twins right-hander Cole De Vries, and I'm going to post them each week here in an effort to try build our leadership. Cool? Cool. Here's episode one, with some goofy audio during minute one, but hopefully solid #content the rest of the way: http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/breakdown-w-brandon-and-cole-de-vries-ep

Brandon and Cole dive into the current state of the Minnesota Twins, re-visit the trade deadline and take your Twitter questions. LINK: http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/the-breakdown-eps-3-w-cole-devries-and-b

It's the second edition of The Breakdown. Brandon and Cole are breaking down trade deadline and getting insights from a former major league player on spring training, trades, and preparation for big league pitchers. Check us out. http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/the-breakdown

It’s hard to envision Miguel Sano rewarding the Twins any more than he has through 18 big league games. The 22 year old has hit .283/.405/.517 in 74 plate appearances, and eight of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases. Strikeouts were always going to be an issue in the short term, and that’s held true as he’s fanned in 35.1 percent of his plate appearances. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today It’s hard to envision Miguel Sano rewarding the Twins any more than he has through 18 big league games. The 22 year old has hit .283/.405/.517 in 74 plate appearances, and eight of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases. Strikeouts were always going to be an issue in the short term, and that’s held true as he’s fanned in 35.1 percent of his plate appearances. For some context, his 162-game paces according to BaseballReference.com are 27 home runs, 99 RBIs and 234 strikeouts. And considering the MLB record for strikeouts in a single season is 223, by Mark Reynolds in 2009, there is some cause for concern. Just six batters in MLB history have struck out 200 or more times in a season — and they’ve all come between 2008 and now. But it would be a lot more worrisome if Sano weren't also taking plenty of walks. Sano’s current pace is 117 walks over a full season of playing time — a 17.6 percent rate. And while his numbers would surely see some form of regression over a full season worth of play, he’s walking at a rate that this year just two big league hitters have sustained as “qualified” hitters. That is, batters who have 3.1 plate appearances per team games played. Those two batters are Paul Goldschmidt (18.4 percent) and Bryce Harper (18.7 percent). That’s some incredible company. In this age where average fans have become more and more engaged and aware with what prospects are doing, it’s no surprise that teams have been keenly aware of what Sano is capable of from the get-go. He hasn’t been pitched like a rookie; rather, he’s been pitched like a 10-year veteran, and the incredible thing is that he’s more than held his own. Here’s some evidence: Fangraphs keeps track of which batters face what pitches, both in terms of frequency and at what velocity. So for instance, among Twins big league regulars, Kurt Suzuki has seen the most fastballs at a 64.6 percent rate. And given Suzuki’s offensive struggles, that makes sense. Joe Mauer is right behind him at 62.6 percent, and it’s clear that opposing pitchers want to see if his bat is still quick enough to keep up with the heat. Given that he’s hitting .277/.339/.394, the jury is still out on that one. But to scroll all the way down the list brings us to some interesting cases. Demoted designated hitter Kennys Vargas saw fastballs just 51.7 percent of the time, as pitchers tried to — and succeeded — at getting him to chase offspeed and breaking stuff both in and out of the zone. But at the bottom of the list is our subject, Mr. Sano, who has seen fastballs just 48.6 percent of the time. Manager Paul Molitor isn’t surprised by this. “I think that people have enough contacts in the game to have an idea of how to go about facing him from the first day he got here,” Molitor said. “They still try to get him to expand (the zone) a little bit, whether it’s high velocity or breaking pitches off the plate.” The velocity comment is interesting, and it checks out with the data. No Twins regular is seeing a harder average fastball than Sano at 93.5 mph. Molitor added: “(Sano) hasn’t had a lot of hits as of late, but his at-bats have still been really good.” One would have to conclude they’ve been remarkably good, given his relative age and level of experience on the game’s grandest stage. Backup catcher Eric Fryer, who was never a teammate of Sano’s in the minors but is well regarded for his defense, game-calling and handling of pitchers, has been impressed by the approach taken by the young hitter. “He’s doing very well,” Fryer said. “Even his walks, you know sometimes you think he’s not doing great, but he had that big walk in Oakland off Sonny Gray that set up Trevor Plouffe’s grand slam which pretty much won the game. Him being disciplined to take pitches when he needs to take ‘em and swing when he needs to is great.” Fryer’s intel is helpful when considering how pitchers and catchers would like to attack such a young and talented hitter, especially considering how he can also tap into his knowledge as a minor league lifer who has seen how these guys have been handled. “From what I remember from Double-A, there’s definitely more fastballs in fastball counts,” Fryer added. “So I think that’s a big adjustment as you go to Triple-A — which Sano skipped — and the big leagues is being able to see breaking pitches in fastball counts consistently.” Fryer wasn’t surprised when presented with the numbers regarding Sano being pitched carefully. “I mean, they’ve seen he’s got some pretty good juice. They know it from batting practice,” Fryer said. “I think the word is around he can swing the bat a little bit. So a lot of times when younger guys come up, pitchers — especially veteran pitchers — are going to try and go to their offspeed and see if they can adjust to it. A lot of times, here in the big leagues, you can hit a fastball. It’s just a matter of if you can adjust to it. So I guess what they’re doing — showing more breaking pitches — is to see if he can adjust to offspeed consistently. Once he shows that, they’ll have to change their game plan a little bit.” For some added context, if Sano were a qualified batter, he’d rank 161st of 162 batters in terms of fastball percentage, behind Kendrys Morales (48.9 percent) but ahead of just Pedro Alvarez (47.6 percent). He’d also rank first in terms of fastballs seen velocity-wise, ahead of Kris Bryant (93.1 mph). And while obviously there’s wiggle room for those numbers to shake out as he plays himself into a bigger sample size, it does portray a pretty good picture of what pitchers are trying to do to him in the near or short term. To Sano’s credit, he’s also handled offspeed and breaking balls very well. According to BaseballSavant.com — a must-browse if you’re a serious baseball fan — Sano is hitting .345 (10-for-29) on breaking balls and off-speed stuff, another very encouraging sign. None of this really bothers Sano, however. “Yeah, I don’t see too many fastballs,” Sano told Cold Omaha on Friday. “I try to have a good approach every time. I try to hit the ball hard to right field. I try to work hard every day. That’s what I do.” Sano’s comments on Double-A match up with Fryer’s recollection of the level. “In Double-A, I saw a lot of fastballs,” Sano added. “A couple years ago before I was hurt, I saw a lot of fastballs. Here I don’t see too many. This is the game, you know? Power hitter. And I try to have a good approach, and try to be healthy. I’m excited to be in the game.” But is it difficult for Sano to be patient as he tries to take the league by storm with his best tool? Not really, he says. “No, it’s not hard to be patient because I played in Double-A, and a lot of pitchers there are good,” Sano said. “I try to have the same patience I had in Double-A, taking my walks.” Nobody is more confident in Sano’s ability than he is, as he coolly added, ”If a pitcher makes a mistake and gives me a good pitch, I can hit a bomb or something like that. Or I can take a ball. Here the pitchers don’t make a lot of mistakes. Sometimes they walk me. And I’ll take the walk. Every at-bat I try to take a good at-bat.” This article originally appeared at Cold Omaha here; please click through to support the content. View full article

t’s hard to envision Miguel Sano rewarding the Twins any more than he has through 18 big league games. The 22 year old has hit .283/.405/.517 in 74 plate appearances, and eight of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases. Strikeouts were always going to be an issue in the short term, and that’s been no exception as he’s fanned in 35.1 percent of his plate appearances so far. For some context, his 162-game paces according to BaseballReference.com are 27 home runs, 99 RBIs and 234 strikeouts. And considering the MLB record for strikeouts in a single season is 223, by Mark Reynolds in 2009, there is some cause for concern. Just six batters in MLB history have struck out 200 or more times in a season — and they’ve all come between 2008 and now. But it would be a lot more worrisome if Sano wasn’t also taking plenty of walks. Sano’s current pace is 117 walks over a full season of playing time — a 17.6 percent rate. And while his numbers would surely see some form of regression over a full season worth of play, he’s walking at a present rate that just two big league hitters have sustained as “qualified” hitters. That is, batters who have 3.1 plate appearances per team games played. Those two batters are Paul Goldschmidt (18.4 percent) and Bryce Harper (18.7 percent). That’s some incredible company. In this age where average fans have become more and more engaged and aware with what prospects are doing, it’s no surprise that teams have been keenly aware of what Sano is capable of from the get-go. He hasn’t been pitched like a rookie; rather, he’s been pitched like a 10-year veteran, and the incredible thing is that he’s more than held his own. Here’s some evidence: Fangraphs keeps track of what batters face what pitches, both in terms of frequency and at what velocity. So for instance, among Twins big league regulars, Kurt Suzuki has seen the most fastballs at a 64.6 percent rate. And given Suzuki’s offensive struggles, that makes sense. Joe Mauer is right behind him at 62.6 percent, and it’s clear that opposing pitchers want to see if his bat is still quick enough to keep up with the heat. Given that he’s hitting .277/.339/.394, the jury is still out on that one. But to scroll all the way down the list brings us to some interesting cases. Demoted designated hitter Kennys Vargas saw fastballs just 51.7 percent of the time, as pitchers tried to — and succeeded — at getting him to chase offspeed and breaking stuff both in and out of the zone. But at the bottom of the list is our subject, Mr. Sano, who has seen fastballs just 48.6 percent of the time. Manager Paul Molitor isn’t surprised by this. “I think that people have enough contacts in the game to have an idea of how to go about facing him from the first day he got here,” Molitor said. “They still try to get him to expand (the zone) a little bit, whether it’s high velocity of breaking pitches off the plate.” The velocity comment is interesting, and it checks out with the data. No Twins regular is seeing a harder average fastball than Sano at 93.5 mph. Molitor added: “(Sano) hasn’t had a lot of hits as of late, but his at-bats have still been really good.” One would have to conclude they’ve been remarkably good, given his relative age and level of experience on the game’s grandest stage. Backup catcher Eric Fryer, who was never a teammate of Sano’s in the minors but is well regarded for his defense, game-calling and handling of pitchers, has been impressed by the approach taken by the young hitter. “He’s doing very well,” Fryer said. “Even his walks, you know sometimes you think he’s not doing great, but he had that big walk in Oakland off Sonny Gray that set up Trevor Plouffe’s grand slam which pretty much won the game. Him being disciplined to take pitches when he needs to take ‘em and swing when he needs to is great.” Fryer’s intel is helpful when considering how pitchers and catchers would like to attack such a young and talented hitter, especially considering how he can also tap into his knowledge as a minor league lifer who has seen how these guys have been handled. “From what I remember from Double-A, there’s definitely more fastballs in fastball counts,” Fryer added. “So I think that’s a big adjustment as you go to Triple-A — which Sano skipped — and the big leagues is being able to see breaking pitches in fastball counts consistently.” Fryer wasn’t surprised when presented with the numbers regarding Sano being pitched carefully. “I mean, they’ve seen he’s got some pretty good juice. They know it from batting practice,” Fryer said. “I think the word is around he can swing the bat a little bit. So a lot of times when younger guys come up, pitchers — especially veteran pitchers — are going to try and go to their offspeed and see if they can adjust to it. A lot of times, here in the big leagues, you can hit a fastball. It’s just a matter of if you can adjust to it. So I guess what they’re doing — showing more breaking pitches — is to see if he can adjust to offspeed consistently. Once he shows that, they’ll have to change their gameplan a little bit.” For some added context, if Sano were a qualified batter, he’d rank 161st of 162 batters in terms of fastball percentage, behind Kendrys Morales (48.9 percent) but ahead of just Pedro Alvarez (47.6 percent). He’d also rank first in terms of fastballs seen velocity-wise, ahead of Kris Bryant (93.1 mph). And while obviously there’s wiggle room for those numbers to shake out as he plays himself into a bigger sample size, it does portray a pretty good picture of what pitchers are trying to do to him in the near or short term. To Sano’s credit, he’s also handled offspeed and breaking balls very well. According to BaseballSavant.com — a must-browse if you’re a serious baseball fan — Sano is hitting .345 (10-for-29) on breaking balls and offspeed stuff, another very encouraging sign. None of this really bothers Sano, however. “Yeah, I don’t see too many fastballs,” Sano told Cold Omaha on Friday. “I try to have a good approach every time. I try to hit the ball hard to right field. I try to work hard every day. That’s what I do.” Sano’s comments on Double-A match up with Fryer’s recollection of the level. “In Double-A, I saw a lot of fastballs,” Sano added. “A couple years ago before I was hurt, I saw a lot of fastballs. Here I don’t see too many. This is the game, you know? Power hitter. And I try to have a good approach, and try to be healthy. I’m excited to be in the game.” But is it difficult for Sano to be patient as he tries to take the league by storm with his best tool? Not really, he says. “No, it’s not hard to be patient because I played in Double-A, and a lot of pitchers there are good,” Sano said. “I try to have the same patience I had in Double-A, taking my walks.” Nobody is more confident in Sano’s ability than he is, as he coolly added, ”If a pitcher makes a mistake and gives me a good pitch, I can hit a bomb or something like that. Or I can take a ball. Here the pitchers don’t make a lot of mistakes. Sometimes they walk me. And I’ll take the walk. Every at-bat I try to take a good at-bat.” This article originally appeared at Cold Omaha here; please click through to support the content.

(Link updated to reflect re-uploading)

Hey friends. Just writing to let you know that I've started a podcast with former Twins righty Cole DeVries called "The Breakdown" and we recorded our first episode on Thursday. Check it out! http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/breakdown-w-brandon-and-cole-de-vries-ep Heads up: The first minute is a bit goofy, but it gets better after that.

I know for a fact Terry Ryan is a big Zobrist fan -- who wouldn't be -- but just can't see this being enough. I have thought about Santana and how he'd be a fit for the A's, but just can't see them taking on another shaky shortstop with Semien in tow. This deal doesn't add up for me.

When a team plays drastically better from one year to the next, it usually means one of a couple of things. With some teams, it means a number of key offseason acquisitions have paid off. For others, especially if the roster is largely intact from a season ago, it suggests that some guys — usually younger players — have taken a step forward and elevated their game to a new level. Image courtesy of Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports When a team plays drastically better from one year to the next, it usually means one of a couple of things. With some teams, it means a number of key offseason acquisitions have paid off. For others, especially if the roster is largely intact from a season ago, it suggests that some guys — usually younger players — have taken a step forward and elevated their game to a new level. Considering the complexion of this current Twins roster, the latter seems far more likely. Sure, players from the outside have (Torii Hunter, Blaine Boyer) and will (Ervin Santana) continue to shape the way this team evolves, but this is largely the same roster from a season ago, and most of the changes that’ll come after the break will come from within. So who has improved the most on this Twins roster from a season ago? Here’s a look at my personal picks, in order. Feel free to differ if you like, via Twitter with @Brandon_Warne or @ColdOmahaMN, or in the comments section below. 1. Trevor May May’s growth has been nothing short of amazing. It’s not just because he’s got really nice peripheral numbers, or that his ERA — while still a bit high at 4.16 — is so much under what he did in his shot of espresso last year with the Twins. It’s because May has completely reversed a trend, at least so far, that had plagued him through his entire development as a rather highly-regarded prospect. Walks were always part of the deal with May, who peaked as the No. 51 prospect on Baseball Prospectus’ pre-2012 list. May walked 4.4 batters per nine innings in his seven minor league seasons, and 4.3 per nine in his 10 appearances with the big club last year as well. The stuff was raw and powerful, but the belief was always that his command would hold him down as a back-end horse who could eat up innings with lots of strikeouts and walks. Or in the worst case, he’d profile as a late-inning power reliever. That all has changed this season, as May told Cold Omaha in an exclusive earlier this year, as he decided to just not be afraid anymore. May has attacked the strike zone in much the same way — though not to the same exact effect — as Phil Hughes did a season ago, and the results have been quite good. May has walked just 1.9 batters per nine innings this season and has walked more than two batters in just three of 18 starts so far. He did the same last year in his nine starts with the Twins and six times in 18 starts at Rochester. The change-up (16.1 percent whiff rate, .637 OPS against) has been big for May, as has been a new-found reliance on a two-seam fastball, which has not only filled up the strike zone, but induced a healthy number of grounders as well. He’ll need to continue to avoid walks and miss a few more bats to reach his xFIP and FIP, but he’s already improved by leaps and bounds in just a short time in the majors. 2. Aaron Hicks Hicks looks like an entirely different player, and it’s in pretty much every fashion. He’s ascended into the defensive player he was always advertised to be, making highlight-reel catches with relative ease while showing off a powerful and accurate arm. He’s also started to drive the ball more, and in recent games has seen his usually precise batting eye return in the form of adding walks back into the mix. Add it up and you’ve got a batter hitting .266/.333/.387 with a higher walk rate (9.4 percent) than Joe Mauer. The AL average center fielder has a wOBA of .318; Hicks’ is .319. Don’t be surprised if this is your starting right fielder next season. 3. Kyle Gibson Gibson’s growth on the whole is pretty unremarkable, as his 2014 and 2015 seasons are mostly indistinguishable when you look at peripherals. He’s slashed his ERA a run and a half, but he’s done so with better strand rates, nearly an extra strikeout per nine innings and virtually the same batted-ball profile. But where Gibson’s growth has come most has been in recent starts, at least in my opinion. Gibson has posted 59 strikeouts in his last 10 starts, spanning 65.1 innings for an 8.1 K/9 mark in that span. That’s well above anything Gibson has done for any extended stretch of time, and could be him turning the corner and becoming a very nice No. 2 starter, especially when used in conjunction with his fantastic penchant for inducing grounders. Gibson’s growth pitch-wise has come with the slider, which is inducing swinging strikes at a 20.7 percent rate — a career high. The change-up has also taken steps forward (17.9 percent this year, 13.8 last), and his two-seamer has a ground ball rate of 65.5 percent. He’s on the upswing, folks. 4. Brian Dozier It’s hard to envision a scenario in which Dozier has become better than his grand breakout in 2014, yet here we are. Dozier faded a bit in the second half in 2014, but if you were to extrapolate his numbers out evenly to 700 plate appearances, he played at a 4.8 fWAR pace a season ago, and is at a pace for a 5.9 mark this season. He’s not walking quite as much as last year, but you can see it simply in his triple-slash. Last year he hit .242/.345/.416; this year, he’s at .256/.328/.513. It remains to be seen if there’s another second half slowdown in his future, but right now his blistering pace is ahead of last year’s tremendous run, overall. This is a star, perhaps verging on superstar. 5. Tommy Milone Neither Milone nor Sam Fuld did much for their respective clubs after last season’s trade found them on the move. But unlike Fuld, who has continued to flounder in Oakland this season, Milone has taken his game to a new level and has now made decisions awfully difficult for the Twins brass in the first half. Milone sprung out of the gate before faltering pretty hard and getting sent to Rochester, but that stretch at Triple-A seems to have ignited something inside the lefty, as he’s pitched like a man possessed since returning. Milone allowed just three earned runs in his five-start stay in Rochester (0.70 ERA), and since returning in early June has slashed his ERA by nearly two full runs. Milone returned to a 4.55 ERA but has that all the way down to 2.83 after this seven-start stretch: 1.84 ERA, .236/.284/.345 opponents’ line and 32-11 K/BB ratio in 44 innings. In other words, he’s averaging pitching well into the sixth inning, taking pressure off an otherwise-distressed Twins bullpen while giving the club a quality start in the last six straight. Milone has never been, nor will he ever be, overpowering but for now he seems to have a stronger hold on his starting spot than rotation mate Mike Pelfrey, who is a free agent at season’s end. Also considered: Eduardo Nunez, Ryan Pressly, Pelfrey This article appeared originally at Cold Omaha here; please consider clicking through to support the content. View full article

When a team plays drastically better from one year to the next, it usually means one of a couple things. With some teams, it means a number of key offseason acquisitions have paid off. For others, especially if the roster is largely intact from a season ago, it suggests that some guys — usually younger players — have taken a step forward and elevated their game to a new level. Considering the complexion of this current Twins roster, the latter seems far more likely. Sure, players from the outside have (Torii Hunter, Blaine Boyer) and will (Ervin Santana) continue to shape the way this team evolves, but this is largely the same roster from a season ago, and most of the changes that’ll come after the break will come from within. So who has improved the most on this Twins roster from a season ago? Here’s a look at my personal picks, in order. Feel free to differ if you like, via Twitter with @Brandon_Warne or @ColdOmahaMN, or in the comments section below. 1. Trevor May May’s growth has been nothing short of amazing. It’s not just because he’s got really nice peripheral numbers, or that his ERA — while still a bit high at 4.16 — is so much under what he did in his shot of espresso last year with the Twins. It’s because May has completely reversed a trend, at least so far, that has plagued him through his entire development as a rather highly-regarded prospect. Walks were always part of the deal with May, who peaked as the No. 51 prospect on Baseball Prospectus’ pre-2012 list. May walked 4.4 batters per nine innings in his seven minor league seasons, and 4.3 per nine in his 10 appearances with the big club last year as well. The stuff was raw and powerful, but the belief was always that his command would hold him down as a back-end horse who could eat up innings with lots of strikeouts and walks. Or in the worst case, he’d profile as a late-inning power reliever. That all has changed this season, as May told Cold Omaha in an exclusive earlier this year that he decided to just not be afraid anymore. May has attacked the strike zone much in the same way — though not to the same exact effect — as Phil Hughes did a season ago, and the results have been quite good. May has walked just 1.9 batters per nine innings this season and has walked more than two batters in just three of 18 starts so far. He did the same last year in his nine starts with the Twins and six times in 18 starts at Rochester. The changeup (16.1 percent whiff rate, .637 OPS against) has been big for May, as has been a newfound reliance on a two-seam fastball, which has not only filled up the strike zone, but induced a healthy number of grounders as well. He’ll need to continue to avoid walks and miss a few more bats to reach his xFIP and FIP, but he’s already improved by leaps and bounds in just a short time in the majors. 2. Aaron Hicks Hicks looks like an entirely different player, and it’s in pretty much every fashion. He’s ascended into the defensive player he was always advertised to be, making highlight-reel catches with relative ease while showing off a powerful and accurate arm. He’s also started to drive the ball more, and in recent games has seen his usually precise batting eye return in the form of adding walks back into the mix. Add it up and you’ve got a batter hitting .266/.333/.387 with a higher walk rate (9.4 percent) than Joe Mauer. The AL average center fielder has a wOBA of .318; Hicks’ is .319. Don’t be surprised if this is your starting right fielder next season. 3. Kyle Gibson Gibson’s growth on the whole is pretty unremarkable, as his 2014 and 2015 seasons are mostly indifferentiable when you look at peripherals. He’s slashed his ERA a run and a half, but he’s done so with better strand rates, nearly an extra strikeout per nine innings and virtually the same batted-ball profile. But where Gibson’s growth has come most has been in recent starts, at least in my opinion. Gibson’s posted 59 strikeouts in his last 10 starts, spanning 65.1 innings for an 8.1 K/9 mark in that span. That’s well above anything Gibson has done for any extended stretch of time, and could be him turning the corner and becoming a very nice No. 2 starter, especially when used in conjunction with his fantastic penchant for inducing grounders. Gibson’s growth pitch-wise has come with the slider, which is inducing swinging strikes at a 20.7 percent rate — a career high. The changeup has also taken steps forward (17.9 percent this year, 13.8 last), and his two-seamer has a groundball rate of 65.5 percent. He’s on the upswing, folks. 4. Brian Dozier It’s hard to envision a scenario in which Dozier has become better than his grand breakout in 2014, but yet here we are. Dozier faded a bit in the second half in 2014, but if you were to extrapolate his numbers out evenly to 700 plate appearances, he played at a 4.8 fWAR pace a season ago, and is at a pace for a 5.9 mark this season. He’s not walking quite as much as last year, but you can see it simply in his triple-slash. Last year he hit .242/.345/.416; this year, he’s at .256/.328/.513. It remains to be seen if there’s another second half slowdown in his future, but right now his blistering pace is ahead of last year’s tremendous run overall. This is a star, perhaps verging on superstar. 5. Tommy Milone Neither Milone nor Sam Fuld did much for their respective clubs after last season’s trade found them on the move. But unlike Fuld, who has continued to flounder in Oakland this season, Milone has taken his game to a new level and has now made decisions awfully difficult for the Twins brass in the first half. Milone sprung out of the gates before faltering pretty hard and getting sent to Rochester, but that stretch at Triple-A seems to have ignited something inside the lefty, as he’s pitched like a man possessed since returning. Milone allowed just three earned runs in his five-start stay in Rochester (0.70 ERA), and since returning in early June has slashed his ERA by nearly two full runs. Milone returned to a 4.55 ERA but has that all the way down to 2.83 after this seven-start stretch: 1.84 ERA, .236/.284/.345 opponents’ line and 32-11 K/BB ratio in 44 innings. In other words, he’s averaging pitching well into the sixth inning, taking pressure off an otherwise-distressed Twins bullpen while giving the club a quality start in the last six straight. Milone has never been, nor will he ever be overpowering, but for now he seems to have a stronger hold on his starting spot than rotation mate Mike Pelfrey, who is a free agent at season’s end. Also considered: Eduardo Nunez, Ryan Pressly, Pelfrey This article appeared originally at Cold Omaha here; please consider clicking through to support the content.

Susac

I think you unintentionally hit on a key point: do you (try) add all those pieces, or just try to squeak by as a wild card team? Because last I checked, the wild card winner last year went to the World Series.

The hottest talk on Twins fans’ lips after the promotions of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano has been whether or not this is a team that should buy or sell at the trade deadline that looms in a mere three and a half weeks. It’s a legitimate question with no easy answer, as the Twins have hung around in a heavily competitive division. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel- USA TODAY Sports The hottest talk on Twins fans’ lips after the promotions of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano has been whether or not this is a team that should buy or sell at the trade deadline that looms in a mere three and a half weeks. It’s a legitimate question with no easy answer, as the Twins have hung around in a heavily competitive division. And if you buy into the idea that the Tigers could fall back a bit with the loss of Miguel Cabrera, and that the White Sox and Indians have yet to play their best ball of the season — all distinct possibilities — the Central could get even wilder before the season draws to a close. The entire American League is bonkers. Coming into play Monday, the Twins are tied with Baltimore — incidentally, the club’s current opponent — for the fifth and final playoff spot. If that wasn’t enough, 13 of the 15 AL clubs are five or fewer games out of a playoff spot. No AL team is more than 6.5 games out. This hurts buying teams two-fold. First of all, any team that is ‘buying’ so to speak needs a seller. The two teams in the AL that are more than five games out of a playoff spot are Chicago — coming off a spending spree in the offseason — and Oakland, whom Fangraphs’ BaseRuns (best explained here) suggests are playing so far below their ceiling that they should be neck and neck with division-leading Houston. Dealing with Billy Beane in July can be a risky proposition for opposing teams, too. The Twins have done it before — Orlando Cabrera in 2009 — but it takes a certain need for each side to find a match. The NL side is a little different, with just nine of 15 teams within five games of a playoff spot, and four teams — Milwaukee, Colorado, Miami and Philadelphia — at least 10 games back. Each of those teams have premium talent that could be pried away, with the possible exception of Miami, but that also requires a steep price in terms of prospects — of which the Twins have. But the other complicating factor with a team being in the thick of it in a heavily competitive AL race is that even the slightest hiccup can leave you in the dust with a veritable dogpile of teams each gaining ground on someone each night. With that many teams involved, at least a few of them each will win on a given night, making any sort of a slide potentially catastrophic in even the short term. And when you look at this Twins roster, it doesn’t appear to be built terribly well for a playoff run. The same BaseRuns concept that suggests the A’s should be a potential playoff team pegs the Twins as having played like a 35-47 team as opposed to their 43-39 mark. Personally, that doesn’t appear too surprising when considering how leaky the team has been in certain facets of the game at times. The bullpen has the ninth-worst ERA in baseball at 3.88. As a group, they’ve fanned just 6.0 batters per nine — dead last across MLB — and are one of just two teams that are under 7.0 in that respect. The vastly improved rotation is in the top half in ERA, but ranks second to last in K/9 and is only about average in terms of groundball rate. On the offensive side, it’s been about Brian Dozier and a rotating cast of characters that have picked up the slack at one time or another. Dozier is the clear leader on the team with a 128 OPS+ — OPS scaled to where 100 is average — with Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter and Trevor Plouffe the only other regulars above average — and just by a few ticks. Nothing about the Twins offense — with the exception of doubles, triples and strikeouts — are among the top half of AL teams. So you don’t have an offense, starting staff or bullpen that really sticks out. Balanced teams can make the playoffs, too, but it most likely would require some sort of ‘boost.’ But where would that boost come from, and where would it go? The Twins don’t really profile as a team that needs help in the outfield. Granted, there’s still no telling what exactly the team can or will get from Buxton or Aaron Hicks, but this isn’t a club in a position to shove one of those two aside for a Marlon Byrd, to throw out a random name who will be available. That’s before also considering Oswaldo Arcia — on a seven-game hitting streak at Rochester where he’s hitting .448/.484/.828 — will also probably rejoin the team at some point, too. Is a run this year so important that you can shove aside players who’ll soon be out of options to take that chance? It hardly seems possible. The rotation already has a bottleneck with Trevor May squeezed out with Ervin Santana’s return, so there isn’t really a good fit there. Similarly, trading legitimate prospects for bullpen help hasn’t exactly worked out well for this club (or any other) in years past either (Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos, etc.). In the infield it would seem only shortstop is open. Jorge Polanco had a really rough first game at Rochester on Saturday, but club sources suggested he was markedly better after some early work on Sunday — his 22nd birthday. If he, Danny Santana or Eduardo Escobar aren’t the future of the position, then a look outside could be merited. That just doesn’t feel like a Twins move either, though. The same can be said for catcher, where Kurt Suzuki has been underwhelming in pretty much every facet of the game. He’s only signed for one more year, so even a starting catcher’s salary could be moved aside if the Twins were to inquire on someone like Jonathan Lucroy. Still again, that’s a splashy move that doesn’t seem to fit the Twins’ usual blueprint, and can also be costly another way. And that way is in terms of trade cost. The Twins could move the likes of Polanco, Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Max Kepler and others. Trading prospects makes sense in a lot of ways, considering the attrition rate of the average prospect versus their trade market value, but at the same time the Twins need to rely on the graduation of some of these prospects emerging to help sustain an extended window as the Buxtons and Sanos mature, and need reinforcements to go alongside them. So does trading from your depth in the minor leagues actually narrow your contention window? Maybe not, considering the team will have Sano and Buxton ostensibly for at least six years — all of which should be pretty good years for the club, barring some sort of disaster — but it’s worth wondering if making a run at the beginning of their careers — and the end of Mauer’s for instance — is worth pushing all the chips in the middle for. And is that season now? Is the division and league as vulnerable as it’ll get in the short- or long-term? Maybe that is the case, considering there’s no dominating team right now. The Red Sox and Yankees are a bit more down than they’ve been in recent years, and some of the teams who were supposed to take giant steps forward — the Clevelands and Seattles of the world — have failed to step up. There’s no easy answer for how the Twins should approach this deadline, but there’s also a fairly good chance that in the next 25 or so days, the team will provide its own answer. If they’re in the thick of it in that last week in July, it’s going to be an interesting deadline for the first time in a long time. This content originated at Cold Omaha here; please consider clicking through to support the content. View full article