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Kwak

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Everything posted by Kwak

  1. Kwak
    I'm confident the decision has already been made--so don't look for "competition" in Spring Training for CF! (they tried that game once and everybody saw through it).
  2. Kwak
    There is a "winter fever" if you will where GM's make speculative trades and free agent signings for the purpose of substantially improving their team--just witness the PHL/Twins trade. Morneau hasn't been (publicly) dangled, but it is no secret to other GMs that the Twins are rebuilding--they will have inquired about Morneau. There are multiple teams thinking of Josh Hamilton. But when he signs--the losers will resort to Plan B--and I would expect serious inquiries about Morneau's availability and "cost". The iron is hot and will get white hot soon for Morneau. Just ask youself how excited you were when you read that Revere was traded--for major league pitching! and more! PHL is excited about Revere. Believe me if Morneau is traded there will be major buzz in his new team--and these guys will gladly (over)pay! July? Pitchers/catchers/salary dumps--the time is right after Hamilton signs.
  3. Kwak
    I think you posters are missing the major result of the trade: People are excited! They care! Fans are now believing that the Twins are moving toward building a consistent winner--and improving the team for 2013. The off-season isn't over--there will be a free agent pitcher signed who will be an improvement. Right now it's back-and-forth between player-agents and Twins/other teams. Face it they aren't calling the Twins up looking for an offer hoping to get one from the Twins--they are sort of a "last resort" option right now. Also consider, there are probably three teams that have already pencilled Josh Hamilton in their lineup--at least two of them are wrong! There will be further trade opportunities after the big names sign. Worrying about service time--baloney! The Twins have stated--and demonstrated that they will pay to retain top players. They are well aware that there is still an abundant supply of OF prospects--these guys have to be promoted in order for the younger to also advance--and there is a need put put some sizzle in the lineup! A new arrival--a newly promoted "hot-shot" creates excitement. Promote Hicks, see what he can do--and if he fails, trade him/demote him, and say "Next!". It's past time to be penny wise and pound foolish about constipating the minor leagues. The Twins need to put an exciting product on the field and attract top talent. If every 1st rounder has to spend 5-6 years in the minors, pretty soon no top player will sign and the Twins will have to "pass" on top amateurs in order to find someone who would actually sign with the Twins. UGH!
  4. Kwak
    Perhaps the tone of this thread will chnge when the next update is included?
  5. Kwak
    Or, it's a realization that unless the Twins make a blow-away offer to the better talent all they can do is wait to see who nobody else wants and then make a deal. That's part of the problem of being a losing team, the better players won't play for you unless offered substantially more money.
  6. Kwak
    They don't need to--there are plenty of others who are passing said information around, such that interested parties can/will find out.
  7. Kwak
    Since the Twins are using "personal catchers" for some pitchers, would Liriano get a "personal pitching coach"? Anderson hasn't done much with him.
  8. Kwak
    Depends what they are offered for Revere--but I don't think it will be much. He has little ML service time to place trust in--so it would be a "prospect-for-prospect" trade.
  9. Kwak
    Ryan is on record that an "infielder will have to fall in our lap", so I don't expect anybody but "a pulse" to compete with Plouffe. They might as well run him out there at 3B and hope that he hits enough to overcome his fielding limitations. Perhaps with another year (or two) of ~25 HRs he could be traded for quality pitching--even one of those "high ceiling Class A guys".
  10. Kwak
    1st year 6MM with incentives that go as high as 10MM, 2nd year opion 12MM with a 1.5MM buyout.
  11. Kwak
    You have a point. But I think we all know Gardy will slot Revere at leadoff whether he deserves to be there or not, after which point I imagine it becomes a lot less easy for the Twins to say in any contract negotiation or arbitration hearing that Revere is not your team's leadoff hitter. As it is, arguing for him being the 9 hitter may be tough, since Gardy batted him mostly in the 2 hole when Span was here. Honestly, I don't know if his spot in the lineup matters much anyway, either from a strategic standpoint or a contract negotiation standpoint. My argument boils down to the fact that barring injury, regardless of where you bat Revere or place him in the outfield, he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck. Then any fast guy is worth two wins. Do theTwins have any more of these guys? If so, no need to obligate the team to Revere.
  12. Kwak
    What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average. but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that. Once you introduce Hicks into the discussion you have negated the need to extend Revere. By your own words you classify Revere as a #9 batter and Hicks as a #1 batter--who will average nearly a full plate appearance more than a #9 batter--and clearly is more important.
  13. Kwak
    Part of the promise for Target Field is that the increased revenue would allow the team to afford enough talent to maintain competitiveness as well as re-sign the fans favorite players. I disagree that if the team trades major league talent for prospects (reducing salaries) that it is wasteful/pointless to spend on lower-level major league talent to improve competitiveness. Many name have been bandied about and claims of "overspending" for free agents--Hogwash!--it's called paying market price. The fans were promised a competitive team--so make the effort and put that team on the field. The revenue streams are adequate to build for the future as well as being competitive in the present. Would it be "risky" to sign a Dempster for three years? Of course! All multiyear contracts involve considerable risk. But the Twins will need pitching in the future as well as now.
  14. Kwak
    Why is Morneau's value higher in midseason? What evidence are you using? How many trades of "hitters" in mideason have yielded a treasure of new talent? My memory is that these deals are viewed as "salary dumps" with little baseball talent recieved for said star. In the past month several teams have surfaced as potential "landing places" for Morneau, but come July virtually every contender has a 1B who hits. Many have stated concerns over Morneau's concussion, or wrist, or whatever and all cite his bloated salary--all of those issues will still be there in July. The Twins should actively move to trade him now and use the "salary reduction" to improve the pitching. The Twins can find others to play 1B.
  15. Kwak
    Back to the thread--Trust in Terry. The Strib published a story on the Twins today and it appears that Ryan is backing off from his statement of "three new starting pitchers". "I don't think you can put a number on it." "We will try to get as many as we can." And we're not going to get someone just for the sake of adding someone." "It has to be someone who likes our situation...". I infer that Ryan realizes that adding three new SPs was a tall order and likely based on certain assumptions--like cost and available dollars in the budget. I read where the budget is probably $90MM rather than the $100MM figure bandied about (by others). "...like our situation..." likely excludes someone who just wants a 1-year "make-good" contract so he can get a big raise for 2014--hence "Goodbye" to Baker--who probably was the most likely free agent who would sign with the Twins for 2013. I perceived that his earlier statements implied that the talent level in 2013 would be significantly improved--no, not to the level of playoff contender--but to the level of a .500 ballclub. I guess I don't know if my definition of "Trust" is the same as Nick Nelson, but from now on I will take any statement Ryan makes with a grain of salt--not because of dishonesty--but because he is speaking for others and the assumptions made for his statements can change significantly due to the whims of others.
  16. Kwak
    I think the real answer to the question is: how difficult is it to replace a Ben Revere? He's a small, fast guy, with no power, and a weak arm. It seems to me that men in his demographic are plentiful in the baseball world. Quite likely each team draft 2-3 every year--true, very few are worthy of the ML level, but they are there someplace. The type of player to "lock-up" is the guy who is extremely difficult to replace--the truly elite player. The man whose skill set is way above the major league standard--all-star level, not just above average. The Twins made mistake with contracts on just that basis. It's easy to denigrate Blackburn, but let's assume his career was repeats of '08 and '09 rather than the disasters of '11 and '12. His salary for that level of performance would be reasonable, but also attainable on the open market at about the same price. Thus, even if Blackburn had "stayed the pitcher he was" , it was pointlessly risky to "lock him up" for fear he would "get too expensive". His '08 and '09 seasons were not awesome, merely competent. I don't believe that Revere should ever be extended a multi-year contract by the Twins--there are just too many other "ben revere's" in the baseball world to ensure that the Twins keep this Ben Revere.
  17. Kwak
    Shouldn't a complete analysis be net runs--delta runs scored less delta runs allowed? How does a change in pitching reflected? Example: Span CF is traded for a starting pitcher who replaces a lesser starting pitcher. Revere replaces Span in CF and Parmalee replaces Revere in RF. It seems the complete analysis involves the changes in all of these players (both defensively and offensively) rather than just the defensive OFers.
  18. Kwak
    Throw-in = minor leaguer who became what the Twins received for Young, Hardy, or Liriano. It's quality not quantity.
  19. Kwak
    How do you know that no one offered for Revere instead of Span? Maybe they did, but the Twins didn't bite because (a) they think Revere is as good as Span/better than Span/good enough to bridge the gap to Hicks, and ( Revere costs literally millions of dollars less. Also, your claim that others' claims about Revere viz. Span are "rubbish" is conclusory. At least offer some evidence instead of dismissing other peoples' points of view out of hand. If all your argument consists of is the fact that it was Span and not Revere traded, then you're working off a whole mess of assumptions that you can't back up. Skimming through the Span/Revere debate, it's positively glaring how ignored this simple fact is maintained and disregarded by the pro-Denard camp. Getting a replacement CF for 10% on the Span dollars yields you far more than just 10% of Span's value to the Twins. Most all Twins fans on both sides of the argument will miss Denard, but this is something that had to happen, and it makes the most business sense besides. When do I get my check? Is payroll a pressing problem? Will this "saving" be used for anything for the fans? Don't bother to answer I already know.
  20. Kwak
    Morneau represents the past--trade him now for the best deal possible. There are enough potential suitors that a reasonable return can be had. Posters have stated "..big year.." if so he will be hugely expensive and will undoubtably seek a WS contender (not the Twins!). If he duplicates 2012--meh, his salary should be used for more pressing needs, if he regresses...a wasted trading opportunity. Thank him for his good years, and wish him well, it's time to move on.
  21. Kwak
    When did they ever do that?
  22. Kwak
    NO! Revere is a placeholder. There won't be a bidding war for his services--ever. Old saying: "as time passes the little guys slow down, but the big guys don't get smaller." :shoot:
  23. Kwak
    No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.
  24. Kwak
    The Twins need to bunt less. The value of lots of OBP guys is to lengthen innings, not shorten them. Once the table is set--keep the ball rollin'--don't give up an out to make it more likely to score one run, but less likely to score three or more. The Twins don't posses a shut-down pitching staff, they can't limit themselves to one run in an inning when they don't have the staff to make it stand up.
  25. Kwak
    No, but I've thought about looking into it, if only for my own sanity. Whew, I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels that way.
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