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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    This is true. The greater fear is probably the same one holding back Berrios this spring (and arguably did last fall), that the Twins are having trouble sorting through their pile of lesser starters. If for some reason we don't see Berrios until June despite good health and performance from him, that will be the issue, not service time.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting comparable in Archer. The normally tight-fisted Rays didn't play any service time games with him, they started his clock in a pennant race in 2012 and he actually wound up qualifying as a super-2 eligible player. Of course, given the starters we have in camp, I don't really care if Berrios stays down for 12 days, but we should probably make room for him well before super 2 becomes an issue in June.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Dang it, you are right. I actually combed some box scores around Carew and Seaver, but I missed that. I thought your 10 or more years apart was a Twins-related trick question thing, because Morris faced Dawson in the 1981 and 1991 all star games, but due to the strike, the 1981 game was in August and thus less than 10 calendar years from the 1991 game. After that, I think Clemens and Gwynn were the next to face each other 10 years apart in an all-star game.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow. A pretty terrible deal compared to the qualifying offer he declined, or his reported 3/33 offer from Baltimore. Apparently he walked away from Baltimore's offer after they wouldn't give him an opt out after the first season. I had heard Fowler was fond of Chicago, though. A little surprised he didn't land with the White Sox actually.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the great response of markos, I dug up some of my research on Stewart's background too: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21338-keith-law-ranks-twins-minor-league-system-3-seven-in-top-100/?p=439647
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say otherwise. But Kim came with less risk, and seemed to better fill a more immediate need. There's quite a range of outcomes for those two that would be grounds for questioning the Twins decision, in addition to the obvious but unlikely "Kim's bat sticks and Park's doesn't".
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the response, Mr. Goin. Bill Smith had 20 years in baseball ops too when he took over as GM, and 24 years experience when he was subsequently removed from that role. In 2010, 15 years into Rob Antony's Twins baseball ops tenure (having become Director of Baseball Operations in 1995, before replacing Smith as assistant GM in 2007), when asked if he "were going to sign a free agent, would he go after the guy with a higher RBI total or slugging percentage, Antony replied that he would prefer the player with the higher RBI total." http://www.startribune.com/where-traditional-scouting-and-statistical-analysis-intersect/88615982/ Then in 2014, Antony was the acting GM during the Bartlett and Kubel reunion, featuring Dave St Peter's infamous tweet of amazement "at focus on 25th man on the roster", followed 3 weeks later by the sudden retirement of the club's interesting choice for said 25th man. I am sure they are great people and hard workers who have done a lot of great things for Twins baseball behind the scenes, but you have to forgive me if I am skeptical about their ability to head the baseball side of the organization (again) in a post-TR world.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite. Here is what he said: That's not an expectation that's going to change in a week or even a month. That's a plan you are actively implementing and protecting.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. It's still quite possible that Arcia over Sano in RF would actually improve our defense, potentially washing out any defensive advantage that Nunez has over Sano at 3B, leaving it strictly a comparison of their bats.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano has never played outfield before, that's all the justification you need to give him 100% of his reps there in early spring. And you don't have to say the "plan" is to work him back in at 3B again later, but just leave the possibility open. Heck, that would just be assumed if Molitor didn't basically squash it by calling him an emergency option only. And no one would blink an eye -- he's played 3B throughout his pro career, of course he can be a backup option there. The controversy, as we've seen, is precluding that possibility at such an early point. Sure, but that would be a reversal from their current position. It sure didn't sound like Molitor was making a careless, off the cuff comment that he will soon reverse.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    We all know about Arcia's track record. If his track record was better, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. He's a potentially starting caliber player, and at least deserves spring training to win some extra playing time over Nunez. Between him, and Kepler perhaps by midseason, and maybe even partial credit for Park or Vargas, it's quite possible a starting-caliber player will emerge from that group that could reduce our reliance on a utility player.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a rather binary view of it. Pretty sure Sano could focus fully on RF in February and March, at the expense of infield work, but start up some infield drills again on April 1 to be ready for his every-other-week appearances at the position. And nobody would blink an eye if that's what Molitor said was going on.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Arcia is at spring training now in the best shape of his life. Seriously, though, Halsey reported that he's been working out at Fort Myers all winter. I'd say he at least deserves a chance to play in some spring training games before you close the door on ~20 or so starts for him in 2016. I see no reason Molitor couldn't have said Sano's time at 3B depends on how well our other outfielders force the issue. But he quite clearly didn't say that.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Not bad for a utility player. But we might have the option to reduce our utility player usage in favor of starting-caliber players. We seem to be deciding against that option before even exploring it in spring training games, though, for an alleged marginal abstract improvement in Sano's mental health.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Appeal to authority arguments aren't particularly fun ones. And in this case, the "authority" doesn't even have good information, they've never seen Sano play the outfield. I'm less disagreeing with their conclusion, and more disagreeing with their process and timing.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    We know exactly what we are getting with Nunez? Is that the 104 OPS+ last year, or the 82 OPS+ in 2014? Also, we won't know how Arcia will perform in that role if he doesn't get the opportunity. If it's June 1st and Arcia has struggled, Kepler is going through growing pains at AAA, and Vargas is repeating his 2015 performance, and you want to shelve Sano's spot starts at 3B in favor of Nunez going forward, that's fine. But it seems a little premature to be making that decision. If anything, this team and roster might benefit from a few extra Plouffe days off, with Sano covering 3B, early in the season to sort all that out properly.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, that argument is fairly irrelevant given the weighty (no pun intended) distraction the coaches have thrown at Sano by shifting him to RF in the first place.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Arcia might not even get an opportunity to bounce back, the way the roster is currently constructed. Spot starts for Sano at 3B would actually be a way to get Arcia a few more opportunities early, without taking away opportunities from Park. And just because you can shop Plouffe doesn't mean you will actually move him. If the 3B market in July is basically the same as it is now, why bother? I'd rather keep him, and just have more options for working him, Sano, and Arcia (or Kepler, if he comes up by then, or Park/Vargas if they show they belong) into the same lineup, which is made more difficult when you promise non-emergency 3B starts to Nunez.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    "Better not to alter everything else"? Sano is being moved to a position he's never played in his life. Starting a game every other week at his natural position is child's play compared to that. Heck, it's probably the minimum required to keep him as an option in case Plouffe was unavailable for multiple games, something you'd probably endorse but something that Molitor seems to be precluding (his "injuries hit us hard" condition implies emergency scenario to me, at least a DL stint and possibly a 60-day DL stint as another poster suggested).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    At the same time, you seem to be making this more complicated and more simple (comparing 2015 OPS figures) than it actually is. Sano will get days off from RF, that is sure. Plouffe will get days off from 3B, that is sure. On those days that Plouffe gets his days off, I'd like the option to shift Sano to 3B and use Arcia (or Kepler) in RF, OR you could use Nunez at 3B if you like. If Sano gets "days off" at DH, you'd have the further option to use Vargas or Park in his place at DH, OR you could still just use Nunez at 3B. And if you've got Nunez at 3B, you'd have the option of pinch hitting for him and shifting Sano there, even if Plouffe was unavailable. If you've got Sano at 3B and a late lead, you'd have the further option of shifting him to 1B or RF or wherever you were willing to de-prioritize defense. The point is, options. You could see who is hitting best (and/or fielding best) at the time and go from there. If you really trust the 2015 numbers, you might be right, it could be Nunez. But it might not be, the complete records of Arcia and Park make a compelling argument otherwise. I've understood since at least November that Sano wasn't a big priority at 3B, and I have no problem with that. The idea that he's only an emergency option, what Molitor said yesterday, seems unwise, though.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, a comparison to average can exaggerate extremes. An average player gets a boost by league conditions, but a good player can get a boost out of proportion to his relative skill advantage (think Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa in MLB circa 1998-2002). And they are different types of hitters, no one is disputing that. That's a large part of that relative OPS advantage, Nishioka simply wasn't racking up SLG. Others have suggested that SLG will translate to MLB better than AVG, and that could be true, but I wouldn't use a reliance on one or the other to exaggerate their past performances relative to league.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    On a more micro level, Sano might also get pulled frequently for a defensive sub too. Which would hurt out ability to add to late leads, or come back if a lead gets blown. And might require a bench spot for an OF caddy (Santana? Or Sweeney, etc.).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It does seem odd that we went after Park rather than Hyun-soo Kim, without ever seeing Sano play a single game in the outfield. You could still have Sano train and prepare for outfield duty, for the supposed health and versatility benefits, but you'd still have the option to start him at DH and field an all-defense outfield whenever you wanted.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say equally difficult, no. They've expressed concerns about his fielding, his size, and his conditioning in the past, and now we have a statement from the team that he "won't" play any 3B in 2016 except for emergency purposes. Those aren't definitive pieces of evidence, but they are pieces of evidence that probably outweigh simple statements from his minor league days that he could handle the position. I'd say it's more likely they view him as a poor defensive 3B than the prevailing alternative theory, which seems to be that playing ~20 games at 3B this year, a position he's played throughout his entire pro career to date, will be too much of a distraction and/or health risk for him. If anything is a distraction and/or health risk, it would be the sudden move to RF.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    If Sano sees any appearances at DH, it's more complicated than that. Any player, including Park and Vargas, could cover his DH starts and free Sano for 3B duty. And given what Molitor said about being "most concerned" about Sano's health, it seems likely he will see some appearances at DH this year, for rest if not injury protection. His bat is just that good.
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