Parker Hageman

Given his second-half performance, I believe Nathan is likely in position for a decent season. His velocity was getting back up there while he had regained the bite on his slider. Still, based on how the market played out, $7 million wound up being pretty steep. In Lidge's case, he finished the season strong in September but his velocity had dropped to below 90 on average and greatly favored his slider - throwing it 70% of the time. For someone with a rash of arm ailments, turning to a slider that frequently can led to more injuries. But for a million bucks, it's worth it to see what Lidge can provide as he has been very good when healthy. If I was a contending team in need of a closer, I would have turned to Nathan over Lidge.

Both for under a million bucks. Brad Lidge goes to the Nationals on a one-year, $1M deal while the Indians sign Dan Wheeler to a minor league deal. Unless the Twins have secret plans for someone like Todd Coffey, today is a big miss in my eyes.

Also, I love how people like to point out Francis's fastball velocity (which sucks, yeah, I know) but it was about as effective as Edwin Jackson's 95+ fastball. What's more is that Francis has been more valuable -WAR wise - than Roy Oswalt. http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/12/rumors-swirl-as-winter-meetings-begin.html

Funny John. You mentioned Jeff Francis as one of your targets during a Gleeman and the Geek podcast.

Yup, bone-graft: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09135/970290-63.stm

I do recall there being references to his age-test. Do you remember off-hand what those tests were? Blood?

I think reason #2 and #3 are very valid. Reason #4 is, m'eh, OK (stuff does happen but also teams who make giant strides forward tend to have some plexiglass effect the following year as performance levels out). However, I just am not sold on reason #1. V-Mart being out doesn't necessarily mean that the Tigers didn't improve, Prince is still an offensive upgrade over Martinez.

I think it was Jeremy Barfield -- Jesse Barfield's son -- who tweeted that while PEDs get all the attention, it is the fudging of age by foreign players that is significantly more rampant in the game. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Sano turned out to be a few years older than he first reported.

@ABG -- I agree that the front office likely has flexibility with their payroll but I cannot see the Oswalt deal happening for several reasons. If the team performs well and finds themselves in the thick of it come July, I can see ownership OKing more money to bring in a player or two if needed. Outside of that, I don't see them expanding much beyond the ~ $1.5 million left until the $100M mark.

Hi Jim, If you haven't, be sure to toggle the "Switch Editor To WYSIWYG Mode". When you upload pictures then, you'll get the option to change the size and add a caption. Try that out and let us know if that helps.

This move coming shortly after Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski told fans on their Winter Caravan that Fielder "is not a good fit for us."

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?158-What-s-left-to-spend

This past week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. The Twins signed Zumaya to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. Shortly thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano ($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065. Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly, it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on a one-year contract. Given those recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the existing knowledge found at Cot’s Contracts and the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s prior assumptions: [ATTACH=CONFIG]77[/ATTACH] As of right now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team. That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out, however, given the ownership’s desire to lower than figure, the drop-off should not be surprising. (You can certainly argue the merits of the decrease but you cannot say it was unexpected.) A few months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction press conference in November, he gave a few more details regarding the payroll number: At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move forward with the present lot, no one could blame him. Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen. Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season (in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of intriguing yet unproven right-handed arms. The most prudent thing would be to use that money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just $1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly shallow bullpen. For the Twins, who are down to their final few schillings, choosing to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly strengthen the pitching staff.

A cursory glance at the statistics of the Dominican Winter League shows that Alexi Casilla finished second in the regular season with a .336 batting average in 119 at-bats. In 68 more at-bats in the league's playoffs, Casilla has hit .397. Combined, he's hit .358, by far the best average in the league. It is hard to get too excited over his production given the league and the sample-size, but as of right now, is Alexi Casilla be the Twins starting second baseman in 2012 and, more importantly, will he be there when the season ends?

Sure, but in both cases (Rockies/Indians, Twins/Indians) those trades were made out of desperation. Indians wanted to unload Pavano and had nowhere else to turn since it was post non-waiver. With Carmona's situation, the Indians were in need of a fairly inexpensive starter and likely would have made a trade for Slowey. I think you are correct in assuming that the Twins wouldn't have landed a Putnam in December but given the circumstances, the Indians would have definitely given up Putnam in January. Bottom line is that circumstances would dictate whether or not the Twins would be able to make a trade with Cleveland.

I'm not sure that the Twins/Cleveland trade couldn't have happened. After all, they did deal for Pavano from Cleveland in the division. The reality is, the opportunity did not exist when they traded him to Colorado.

I agree that the Twins should have held on to Slowey to see if the market developed more for a pitcher -- as it proved it did when the Indians became in need of an additional starter -- however I do question whether moving forward Slowey will ever live up to his "dominant minor league" track record, specifically because of his wrist injury. Since he had a screw inserted into his wrist, his secondary offerings have declined. His fastball control might be able to guide him to some extent but without a viable secondary pitch, he's not likely to live up to expectations that many statistically inclined individuals believe he is capable of. Now, its possible that he adapts to the foriegn body in his pitching wrist, but I would tend to think otherwise. The shame is that the Twins hurried him out the door and got less value in return regardless of what his future holds.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?154-Can-a-focused-Burroughs-be-useful-to-the-Twins

On Monday, the Star Tribune’s Patrick Reusse recounted the tale of Sean Burroughs, a recent Twins minor league signing this winter, whose life was derailed by drinking and drugs in his twenties. In his first four seasons of professional ball in the Padres organization, Burroughs hit a remarkable .324/418/.453 in 1,653 plate appearances. Baseball America anointed him the seventh best prospect in 2000 then the sixth best in 2001 and finally the fourth best in 2002. He was the proverbial “can’t miss” prospect. Unfortunately, he missed. From 2003 to 2005, Burroughs hit .283/.343/.366 with the Padres. While in a different era his batting average may have been lauded, in the modern era that puts emphasis on reaching base AND hitting for power, Burroughs’ stock tumbled in San Diego. People began to wonder where the power - the one that baseball minds predicted he would eventually develop - was. Midway through 2005, the Friars traded for Joe Randa, who was having a solid season in Cincinnati at an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. This was the beginning of the end for Burroughs in San Diego. Never mind that upon reaching the west coast and Petco Park Randa’s numbers tumbled to .256/.303/.395 – hardly an improvement over what Burroughs was providing them – but Burroughs’s off-field shenanigans likely accelerated his exit. According to an article by MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch, Burroughs’ attention turned to partying that season: The Padres would trade Burroughs to Tampa in exchange for another failed prospect in Dewan Brazelton but Burroughs would flounder in Florida as well. In 25 games for the Devil Rays, he hit .190/.320/.238 and earned a release in August. This begat a trail run with the Mariners the following season that lasted until June. After that, Burroughs disconnected from the world in Las Vegas, accumulating war stories which he claims would make Josh Hamilton blush. The 30-year-old Burroughs cleaned himself up and earned a spot into the Diamondbacks system. While in AAA Reno last year, he produced well in 110 plate appearances, hitting .412/.450/.618. Impressed, Arizona buoyed him between the big club and their top affiliate, chiefly using him as a pinch hitter off the bench (58 of his 115 plate appearances can off the bench). In that limited time at the big league level, Baseball America’s one-time number four overall prospect hit .273/.289/.336 with five extra base hits. While he’s a fantastic feel-good story worth of a Disney biopic, what are the odds we’ll see Burroughs at Target Field in 2012? Based on his track record, it might be fairly decent. In 2011, Danny Valencia was one of the worst rated defensive third basemen according to Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus rating system (30 in MLB). Meanwhile, Burroughs has been a top defender in the game as recently as 2005. Yes, six years added to his odometer may have slowed him down some, but there are odds that his prowess still exists: [ATTACH=CONFIG]71[/ATTACH] Furthermore, where the right-handed hitting third base incumbent has been thwarted by same-sided nemesis (a career .283 OBP against RHP), Burroughs’s little major league success is predicated on him being able to reach base against righties (.350 career OBP against RHP). If added to the roster, he provides a solid platoon option. What’s interesting about Burroughs’s approach at the plate is that the left-hander has an inside-out swing, one that produces numerous opposite field and up-the-middle hits. [ATTACH=CONFIG]72[/ATTACH] As you can see from Inside Edge’s hit chart from last year, Burroughs thrives at taking inside pitches the other way – a method that provides a high average but little power. Here is a video clip that exemplifies this swing: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19614437&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tc id=vpp_copy_19614437&v=3 This resulted in Burroughs hitting .565 on balls hit to left while hitting just .143 when pulling the ball in 2011. Although many baseball people thought Burroughs’s power would eventually develop, it is more likely that his approach would never allow for a great deal of home runs – much like a certain Minnesota catcher (with the exception of one season). Because of his keen batting eye and ability to get base hits by using left and center fields, Burroughs maintained an average of .317 and an on-base percentage of .400 in the minors. While playing in the Venezuelan Winter League this winter, Burroughs continued by hitting .316 and posting a .396 on-base percentage in 136 at-bats. It is possible that given the opportunity to hit in more favorable situations against right-handed pitchers, he could potentially put up similar numbers. If Valencia cannot improve on his defense and his struggle against right-handed pitching persists, don’t be surprised to see Burroughs in Minnesota. At the very least, Burroughs can be a Rochester reminder for the current starter – hopefully pushing him to improve his game.

The buzz on Twitter yesterday was that people (Commnman, TPA_Bill, Brandon Warne) wanted to do something in Roseville. For selfish reasons, I prefer the west-side of town. JJ's is just fine. Someone mentioned that Toby Keith's might be a good space during the day when it is less of a country bar. Either way, we should pick a venue and email it out.

Based on FSN's interview with Terry Ryan, it appears that the Twins will not be pursuing an insurance policy for Morneau.