ThePuck

Try and keep up - my opinion is that you are over-valuing him. Necessarily so? No, you could be right in the end. Oh Jesus, whatever man...unbelievable

IMO, that's a very truthful post. Additionally, TB is a team that, due to payroll constraints, embraces advanced Metrics. For me, it was just about this: The Rays seem to need a leadoff guy, they lost their CF, they are pitching rich (including Shields who they won't be able to afford in 2014 so they'll likely trade him) and they have a low payroll. Span will likely be cheaper the next two years than any comparable FA CF and he's proven. Revere could also be a choice if they like his potential and the fact he's even cheaper.

I've mentioned the price of the other available guys...which makes Span's value even better. Also, I'm not sure why the Twins HAVE to trade Span or Revere. They certainly should consider it based on needing pitching combined with their OF depth. But need to? I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.

Nope, was suggesting a plausible scenario in which your aggressive attitude about Span's value was false. You've gone out of your way to go after anyone that suggests Span isn't as attractive a commodity as some are suggesting. I've shared my opinion, you're welcome to yours as well. I hope yours is right, because then we'll turn Span into better value than I believe we will. But citing stats does not lead to a factual conclusion of trade value and it's silly to assert that. No, first you said, 'You're getting caught over-valuing a player you watch every day' Then you said, 'I'm not saying you are necessarily over-valuing him' Exact opposites.

I find this line of reasoning totally unconvincing. Occam's razor. Is it more likely that the Twins valued Santana at, not $12 million, but say $10 million? Or is it more likely that the Twins are putting on an elaborate dog and pony show, gambling tens of millions of dollars on players that they don't want, all for the PR impact on the very few hardcore fans who are still paying attention in November? Okay

You're not? You wrote in your last post to me: 'You're getting caught over-valuing a player you watch every day' You also wrote to me: 'Getting high and mighty about someone else's gut feeling about trade value is trying to punch air. It won't work and you look stupid doing it. ' Which is exactly what YOU did and have done. ' You're not going to get anyone's prime trade bait with him alone'. And when I responded to Willihammer's post to me, I wasn't acting high and mighty. I originally suggested a situation that I thought would make for a good trade and since he disagreed, I asked him for one he thought would be beneficial to TB I did say to the guy, who never responded BTW: 'Okay...so...let's say they don't want to use Jennings in CF, which FA CF is gonna be cheaper than Span over the next two years who is also younger and fits their leadoff needs? BTW, I also mentioned Revere at the beginning of all this..' Asking him what he thinks might be a better alternative isn't acting all high and mighty, it's asking for his opinion as to what he sees out there that might be better since he didn't think my scenario worked. If that's acting high and mighty, then we have different views as to what that means. I thought that was asking him what he thought might be better for the Rays...what they might do to address their needs. I do thank you for the condescended words:' In simpler terms for you - there is no fact-based argument about player trade value.' As if you think you're somehow so far above my intelligence that you need to break things down to me as if I'm an idiot. Must be nice to be as smart as you......think you are.

Yeah, there have been some blatant exceptions, haven't there. My bad. :-)

I'm actually happy they didn't get him...but, on the other hand, this is typical of the Twins...giving just enough effort to show the fanbase they're 'trying' and then just missing out. Ah, shucks. Like when they offered a contract to Hunter that they KNEW he wouldn't take (not enough years) after ignoring him all offseason when he was trying to get an extension. They offered enough money, but not enough years...and they knew the years wouldn't work when they made the offer. But it was a PR offer so some fans would say, well, they tried and it was the greed of Hunter that made it not work. Offer just enough to make it seem like they're really trying, but little enough to know the deal won't happen.

There are plenty of ways they could address things. They could put Jennings in CF and look for another OF to bat leadoff. There are a multitude of ways any team could do things. You're getting caught over-valuing a player you watch every day. Span is a player with concussion issues who is very solid, but unspectacular. You're not going to get anyone's prime trade bait with him alone. If Ryan pulls that off, great, but attacking anyone that questions that kind of speculation has plenty of flaws too. Ah, I see...since you and I disagree on his value/abilities, it must be that I'M getting caught over-valuing a player I watch daily. Fantastic fact based argument. You couldn't possibly be wrong and undervaluing a player you watch daily. Are the people who do the Fielding Bible award over-valuing his defense based on watching him daily as well when they rated him the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year? Fangraphs saying he's 2nd in range, 2nd in UZR and 2nd in defensive runs saved, are they bias too? What about the people at Baseball-reference who have his WAR at 28th AL players (23 for Fangraphs)? Them too?

I was downright giddy when we signed him and absolutely pissed when we traded him

Let's get the timeline right. Twins announced Hardy was traded in an article written on the 9th of December. Twins announced they had signed Nishioka in an article written on the 17th. In other words, Hardy was traded before Nishioka was a Twin, not the other way around. And yes, I know they won the rights to Nishi around the same time...but it wasn't a done deal Nishi was also brought in to play 2B cause Gardy was planning on using Casilla at shortstop. Saying he liked how Casilla came in on balls along with his speed and athleticism. He even went so far as to say, before Hardy was trade, that even if Hardy was on the team, Casilla would compete with him for shortstop.

I don't have them doing anything there either this offseason as I believe their goal of solid defense is in place and will suffice for now. Once they know what they have for pitching next year and see how Arcia, Hicks, and Parmalee develop I can see one of them being traded either in July next year or next offseason for a SS. Do you believe having Dozier at 2B and Florimon at shortstop gives us solid defense?

Okay..I never said that the CF had to be a leadoff guy...just that they need a CF and a leadoff guy and him being able to do both works in his value...and I never said we have them right where we want them, just that it makes a lot of sense for both sides because of the things TB is looking to address... And, as John Bonnes already stated, 'Jason Collette, who I trust, says the Rays are almost undoubtedly going to be interested in acquiring a CFer this year. He wouldn't rule out a Shields for Span deal, straight up. ' Now, maybe the guy I asked will answer the question...since it was about value...

His age being all of 29... Okay...so...let's say they don't want to use Jennings in CF, which FA CF is gonna be cheaper than Span over the next two years who is also younger and fits their leadoff needs? BTW, I also mentioned Revere at the beginning of all this...

Our team overvaluing it's trade chips is another problem...

Or the Twins are doing what they always do WAY overvaluing their trade chips...

It's apparent you don't think much of Span, which is probably where the disconnect is. Span was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball by the voters giving the Fielding Bible awards and he's a pretty darn good leadoff guy who sees a lot of pitches and has a team friendly contract. I guess some of us feel there's more value there than you think there is. I see a lot of value, just not as much as a starting pitcher who's been healthy, under twenty five, and under team control for four years. Span's health issues do play a big part in my view of his ability to fetch a return, which is something I think we've been understating. That pitcher also hasn't done a whole lot yet at the major league level...none of his major league numbers really stand out especially when you consider he's an NL pitcher. And pitching is an area of strength for the team. I understand there's a lot of hype around him, based on him being a #7 pick and some of his minor league numbers, but we still don't know for sure how good he'll be here. Me, personally, I don't see if happening either, but I don't think it's far-fetched.

Who is playing CF for Atlanta next year? Any idea?

It's apparent you don't think much of Span, which is probably where the disconnect is. Span was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball by the voters giving the Fielding Bible awards and he's a pretty darn good leadoff guy who sees a lot of pitches and has a team friendly contract. I guess some of us feel there's more value there than you think there is.

TB does have Jennings. He can play CF, can't he? Well, he can go there....not sure if he can do the job in CF. Some TB fans I know seem to doubt it, but honestly I'm not sure.

Mostly porn :-)

Clearly...the point was more about if they are gonna trade Span or Revere, the perfect fit would be TB and the perfect time would be now. TB won't exercise Shield's 2014 option and won't re-sign him, so they need to trade him soon. Teams know this

Well, my opinion is that injury was a huge part of it. He had no fewer than three serious injuries and two surgeries. The other option, and I know most here won't like it, is that he struggled because he was pushed to the Twins too quickly for the September call-up. If 6 years in the minors before getting a call-up to the majors is pushing a player too quickly (especially for a 2nd round pick), I'd hate to see what taking it slow is like...

Rays just exercised Shields' option...if the Twins are gonna trade Span or Revere, NOW is the time... cause the Rays need a good inexpensive CF....and many of the CFs on the market now will cost more. TB is one for the few teams who need a CF where we can get good value from in a trade due to his team friendly contract. Revere might even be more tempting due to salary.

True, but it was predictable...and also remember, they weren't additions to our roster replacing weak players, but replacements for Cuddy and Kubel. Yes, this year they were upgrades to those two, but that's one year and with the saved money they didn't do anything with it