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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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Ironically, Otis Nixon's nephew played in Chattanooga last year...
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Oh my... he came up like 4-5 weeks ago, and this is just become a thing... but this is one of the greatest comments I've ever read on Twins Daily!!
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- gabriel moya
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Article: Twins July Trade Candidates
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I can see that... though I'd just go with Garver as the platoon with Mauer at 1B since he'd be $0.5M instead of $5M, and use that extra $4.5M on pitching.- 111 replies
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Article: Twins July Trade Candidates
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think he'd have very much trade value, and he's got too much talent to just give away. With that much team control and his age, he could be a 4th OF for the next 4-6 years, and he can start in CF and LF when needed.- 111 replies
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Article: Twins July Trade Candidates
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would agree, but the fact that he can do it may allow a winning team to use him in that situation when their regular closer has worked 2-3 games in a row. But he can also be an 8th inning guy... or a 7th inning guy... or a guy who comes in when you really need a ground ball to get out of an inning.- 111 replies
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Article: Twins July Trade Candidates
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
5 years vs 1 year is huge... See what the White Sox got for Adam Eaton... and no, I'm not saying the Twins should expect 3 Top 10 guys from some team for Rogers, but because he's got so much team control, there is a premium.- 111 replies
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Article: Twins July Trade Candidates
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I tend to agree, but i also think he is a guy who could command an impressive return, so they have to have the conversations. And I think there is enough of a pitcher's market right now that someone may offer a huge package.- 111 replies
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Blankenhorn made the move over to 2B for the 2nd half (after the made their 4 promotions). He's been playing there most every day with guys like Jernigan and Cabbage and Hamilton splitting time at 3B. I don't think his prospect status has fallen a whole lot, if any. And, Blankenhorn crushed the snot out of the ball at E-Town a year ago, so using Bechtold's E-Town numbers aren't terribly meaningful on their own.
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That may be right, though they weren't going to send down Santana, Berrios or Mejia. Garcia gets a spot, and if Colon didn't want to retire, he wasn't an option... So, maybe it was going to be Gibson regardless... Only other option (sticking with the assumption that the first five starters were givens), is putting Gibson in the bullpen and sending down Busenitz or Pressly.
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For the past week, Nick and I have taken turns reviewing the players that the Twins could look to acquiring in trades from the various divisions. When that series of articles began, the team was just a ½ game out of first place. As the series came to a conclusion yesterday with a look at the American League East division, the Twins found themselves nearly six games out and four games out of a wild card spot. At this point, the strategy has likely changed. Instead of being buys, the Twins are taking calls from teams to find out which players the Twins might be willing to “sell” by Monday afternoon’s trade deadline.As I’ve done in past years when the trade deadline approached and the Twins were (more clearly) sellers, I reviewed players in the Twins organization who could be dealt for something and gave a percent-likelihood that the player gets traded. WHO IS SAFE (probably)? Before digging into which players have at least some chance of being traded, it’s probably a good idea to consider which players will not be traded, for whatever reason. While the percent-likelihood that they are dealt may not be 0.00%, it is like 0.001% or similar. Joe Mauer will not be traded. He has a no-trade clause in his contract, and he became a 10-5 guy a long time ago.Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler - Young, high-ceiling hitters who are yet to reach their primes are immensely valuable. They each will make the league’s minimum at least one more year.Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia - See the previous list and substitute the word “pitchers” for “hitters.”Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes, Ryan O’Rourke, Trevor May - These are 60-day DL guys. While there would be teams interested in Trevor May if he was made available, it would be very unlikely the Twins would trade him when they likely have high hopes for him in 2018, and beyond.Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago - These guys are closer to being DFAd than to being traded.TRADE CANDIDATES First and foremost, this list is intended for entertainment purposes only. Twins Daily does not recommend or encourage making wagers on trade deadline activities. These percentages are simply educated guesses designed to create discussion. Brandon Kintzler - RHP (75%) - Brought in on a minor league contract following an injury-plagued 2015 season, Kintzler began in Rochester, was called up a month later, was the team’s closer a month or so later, and in 2017, he became an All-Star. He has been remarkably reliable. However, he is at the end of his contract and will be a free agent following the season. His ability to close, or work in tough situations in the seventh or eighth inning could make him valuable to any playoff-contending team. Another All-Star who is an impending free agent at season’s end, Pat Neshek, went to the Rockies for three minor leaguers (none were Top 15 prospect types). Since Kintzler is a little younger, the Twins might be able to get slightly more return for Kintzler. Jaime Garcia - LHP (55%) - When the Twins acquired him on Monday, they were buying, just 2.5 games out of first place, and even closer in the wild card. Now the team may be a seller, and he has yet to make his first start for the organization. The Twins gave up 19-year-old Huascar Ynoa for Garcia with a willingness to eat much of Garcia’s remaining contract. The Twins could look to trade Garcia, continue paying him at least some of his remaining money ($4.5 million or so), and get a higher-ranking prospect in return. Ervin Santana - RHP (40%) - Santana may be a bit older, but he’s on a friendly contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. In other words, he’s far from a rental. A team could keep him for nearly 2 ½ years if things go well. Santana was great in April and May. He hasn’t been particularly strong in June and July, but he’s a veteran that most teams would be happy to see starting for them in the playoffs. The Rangers are in about the same situation and they’ve made Yu Darvish available, so the Twins would be wise to at least make Santana available and see what offers role in. He could be a backup plan to Darvish or Sonny Gray for the Yankees and Dodgers, while he makes a ton of sense for the Astros. Eduardo Escobar - UT (37.5%) - This name might surprise many reading, but it does make a lot of sense. Escobar is beloved in the clubhouse, but if the Twins were to offer him arbitration this coming offseason, he is likely to make $4 million or more. That’s a lot for a utility guy. Now, if he plays as much and as well as he has in 2017 next year, he’d be more than worth it. But with Dozier, Polanco and maybe Nick Gordon and/or Engelb Vielma in the picture in the middle infield, and Ehire Adrianza fully capable of being a solid utility infielder for $3 million less, dealing Escobar while he’s playing so well may make a lot of sense. They could get a similar haul to what the Giants got for Eduardo Nunez this week. Chris Gimenez - C (35%) - Gimenez clearly has a ton of respect in the game, particularly for his charisma and leadership skills. On field, he hasn’t been particularly good, but teams love adding guys like this down the stretch. The Twins wouldn’t get much, maybe even just some cash and a low level prospect, but I can see teams asking for him. It would allow Mitch Garver to be up for the final two months of the season as well. Matt Belisle - RHP (30%) - Belisle’s overall numbers do not look good because of a handful of really bad outings, but he has been really good the last two months. He’s given up just one earned run in his last 16 outings (18.2 innings). The return won’t be real high, but he can be a solid 5th or 6th bullpen option for a good team. Robbie Grossman - DH (20%) - Grossman was yet another strong minor league deal for Terry Ryan last year. Since joining the Twins, he has been a very productive hitter, primarily for his on-base skills, but he’s provided occasional pop too. He isn’t ideal to have in the outfield defensively, but there could be a team looking for a bench bat who could provide some versatility. He will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, and if he stays with the Twins, it would be an obvious choice to offer it to. Kyle Gibson - RHP (17.5%) - The right-hander was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, but the last two years have been a struggle for him. He had one of his best starts of the year on Saturday, and by Tuesday, he was sent to Rochester where he pitched well on Thursday night. In his second run at arbitration this offseason, Gibson could make a raise, potentially getting $4.5-5 million. The Twins likely would not pick that up, but Gibson’s got enough pedigree that there could be a team out there that thinks they know how to turn things around for the right-hander. And they may be right. For some reason, he seems like a perfect fit with the Cardinals. (One of) ByungHo Park/Kennys Vargas - DH (15%) - While teams likely won’t come to the Twins asking about these AAA (maybe AAAA) DH/1B, the Twins could go to teams looking for a bench bat, backup 1B/DH type in an attempt to drop one of them. Maybe they can find a taker. I thought Tampa made a lot of sense for Park since Logan Morrison and now Lucas Duda both bat left-handed. Eddie Rosario - OF (12.5%) - Rosario has arguably been the Twins best hitter the last six weeks, so this would be a case of trying to sell high on Rosario. The decision to make him available would likely be based on the front office’s willingness to believe that Rosario’s improved plate discipline and walk rate over the last couple of months is sustainable. Brian Dozier - 2B (10%) - There will be teams that will inquire about the availability of Dozier. Clearly the Twins were wise to not deal him straight-up for Jose Deleon. However, to this point Dozier has returned to a level at or slightly above his 2014 and 2015 numbers, as opposed to his historic performance in 2016. That’s still a valuable player, but the Twins will (and should) ask for more than teams are likely willing to offer. There are a lot of quality second basemen in baseball, and one of them, Ian Kinsler, is very likely to be traded which means there may not be a lot of teams in need of a second baseman. The Twins will happily keep him unless overwhelmed. Ryan Pressly - RHP (5%) - Teams could or should watch Pressly and see the 96-98 mph fastball, and see that sharp breaking ball, and realize that he’s got some great stuff. Pitching coaches and coordinators likely believe that they can provide said pitcher with that little piece that he’s missing to turn things around. Pressly’s got stuff to be a great late-inning reliever, and he’ll probably get there some day. The Twins would be wise to hang on to him, especially since he can be optioned still this year. No need to sell low. Taylor Rogers - LHP (2.5%) - Although I think Rogers could be part of a strong bullpen for the Twins for years ahead, I am including his name here. When I look at what the Marlins got for reliever David Phelps (who is similar, though right-handed, and older), I’d be incredibly curious what other teams might offer for a left-hander like Rogers who has been great for the Twins until the last few games. Unlikely to be dealt, but if a team is willing to give up three or four minor leaguers for him, I’d be curious. ---------------------------------------------------- It’s fun to guess what the team will do, but we still don’t know to what level the front office views this team. Sellers? Sellers only if overwhelmed? Buyers for long-term, high-talent assets? A combination of all of the above. There may be some surprises in the list above, and by Monday, there could be other surprises, maybe some minor leaguers. It will be as interesting a trade deadline as we have seen in recent years. There could be five moves, or they could do nothing, and a case could be made for both strategies. At the end of the day, each trade (made or not made) would have to be judged on its own merit. So, what do you think? Do you agree or disagree with the list above or any of the percentages? As a reminder, it’s important to remember that several of these player trades may make more sense in August rather than the July deadline. Click here to view the article
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As I’ve done in past years when the trade deadline approached and the Twins were (more clearly) sellers, I reviewed players in the Twins organization who could be dealt for something and gave a percent-likelihood that the player gets traded. WHO IS SAFE (probably)? Before digging into which players have at least some chance of being traded, it’s probably a good idea to consider which players will not be traded, for whatever reason. While the percent-likelihood that they are dealt may not be 0.00%, it is like 0.001% or similar. Joe Mauer will not be traded. He has a no-trade clause in his contract, and he became a 10-5 guy a long time ago. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler - Young, high-ceiling hitters who are yet to reach their primes are immensely valuable. They each will make the league’s minimum at least one more year. Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia - See the previous list and substitute the word “pitchers” for “hitters.” Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes, Ryan O’Rourke, Trevor May - These are 60-day DL guys. While there would be teams interested in Trevor May if he was made available, it would be very unlikely the Twins would trade him when they likely have high hopes for him in 2018, and beyond. Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago - These guys are closer to being DFAd than to being traded. TRADE CANDIDATES First and foremost, this list is intended for entertainment purposes only. Twins Daily does not recommend or encourage making wagers on trade deadline activities. These percentages are simply educated guesses designed to create discussion. Brandon Kintzler - RHP (75%) - Brought in on a minor league contract following an injury-plagued 2015 season, Kintzler began in Rochester, was called up a month later, was the team’s closer a month or so later, and in 2017, he became an All-Star. He has been remarkably reliable. However, he is at the end of his contract and will be a free agent following the season. His ability to close, or work in tough situations in the seventh or eighth inning could make him valuable to any playoff-contending team. Another All-Star who is an impending free agent at season’s end, Pat Neshek, went to the Rockies for three minor leaguers (none were Top 15 prospect types). Since Kintzler is a little younger, the Twins might be able to get slightly more return for Kintzler. Jaime Garcia - LHP (55%) - When the Twins acquired him on Monday, they were buying, just 2.5 games out of first place, and even closer in the wild card. Now the team may be a seller, and he has yet to make his first start for the organization. The Twins gave up 19-year-old Huascar Ynoa for Garcia with a willingness to eat much of Garcia’s remaining contract. The Twins could look to trade Garcia, continue paying him at least some of his remaining money ($4.5 million or so), and get a higher-ranking prospect in return. Ervin Santana - RHP (40%) - Santana may be a bit older, but he’s on a friendly contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. In other words, he’s far from a rental. A team could keep him for nearly 2 ½ years if things go well. Santana was great in April and May. He hasn’t been particularly strong in June and July, but he’s a veteran that most teams would be happy to see starting for them in the playoffs. The Rangers are in about the same situation and they’ve made Yu Darvish available, so the Twins would be wise to at least make Santana available and see what offers role in. He could be a backup plan to Darvish or Sonny Gray for the Yankees and Dodgers, while he makes a ton of sense for the Astros. Eduardo Escobar - UT (37.5%) - This name might surprise many reading, but it does make a lot of sense. Escobar is beloved in the clubhouse, but if the Twins were to offer him arbitration this coming offseason, he is likely to make $4 million or more. That’s a lot for a utility guy. Now, if he plays as much and as well as he has in 2017 next year, he’d be more than worth it. But with Dozier, Polanco and maybe Nick Gordon and/or Engelb Vielma in the picture in the middle infield, and Ehire Adrianza fully capable of being a solid utility infielder for $3 million less, dealing Escobar while he’s playing so well may make a lot of sense. They could get a similar haul to what the Giants got for Eduardo Nunez this week. Chris Gimenez - C (35%) - Gimenez clearly has a ton of respect in the game, particularly for his charisma and leadership skills. On field, he hasn’t been particularly good, but teams love adding guys like this down the stretch. The Twins wouldn’t get much, maybe even just some cash and a low level prospect, but I can see teams asking for him. It would allow Mitch Garver to be up for the final two months of the season as well. Matt Belisle - RHP (30%) - Belisle’s overall numbers do not look good because of a handful of really bad outings, but he has been really good the last two months. He’s given up just one earned run in his last 16 outings (18.2 innings). The return won’t be real high, but he can be a solid 5th or 6th bullpen option for a good team. Robbie Grossman - DH (20%) - Grossman was yet another strong minor league deal for Terry Ryan last year. Since joining the Twins, he has been a very productive hitter, primarily for his on-base skills, but he’s provided occasional pop too. He isn’t ideal to have in the outfield defensively, but there could be a team looking for a bench bat who could provide some versatility. He will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, and if he stays with the Twins, it would be an obvious choice to offer it to. Kyle Gibson - RHP (17.5%) - The right-hander was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, but the last two years have been a struggle for him. He had one of his best starts of the year on Saturday, and by Tuesday, he was sent to Rochester where he pitched well on Thursday night. In his second run at arbitration this offseason, Gibson could make a raise, potentially getting $4.5-5 million. The Twins likely would not pick that up, but Gibson’s got enough pedigree that there could be a team out there that thinks they know how to turn things around for the right-hander. And they may be right. For some reason, he seems like a perfect fit with the Cardinals. (One of) ByungHo Park/Kennys Vargas - DH (15%) - While teams likely won’t come to the Twins asking about these AAA (maybe AAAA) DH/1B, the Twins could go to teams looking for a bench bat, backup 1B/DH type in an attempt to drop one of them. Maybe they can find a taker. I thought Tampa made a lot of sense for Park since Logan Morrison and now Lucas Duda both bat left-handed. Eddie Rosario - OF (12.5%) - Rosario has arguably been the Twins best hitter the last six weeks, so this would be a case of trying to sell high on Rosario. The decision to make him available would likely be based on the front office’s willingness to believe that Rosario’s improved plate discipline and walk rate over the last couple of months is sustainable. Brian Dozier - 2B (10%) - There will be teams that will inquire about the availability of Dozier. Clearly the Twins were wise to not deal him straight-up for Jose Deleon. However, to this point Dozier has returned to a level at or slightly above his 2014 and 2015 numbers, as opposed to his historic performance in 2016. That’s still a valuable player, but the Twins will (and should) ask for more than teams are likely willing to offer. There are a lot of quality second basemen in baseball, and one of them, Ian Kinsler, is very likely to be traded which means there may not be a lot of teams in need of a second baseman. The Twins will happily keep him unless overwhelmed. Ryan Pressly - RHP (5%) - Teams could or should watch Pressly and see the 96-98 mph fastball, and see that sharp breaking ball, and realize that he’s got some great stuff. Pitching coaches and coordinators likely believe that they can provide said pitcher with that little piece that he’s missing to turn things around. Pressly’s got stuff to be a great late-inning reliever, and he’ll probably get there some day. The Twins would be wise to hang on to him, especially since he can be optioned still this year. No need to sell low. Taylor Rogers - LHP (2.5%) - Although I think Rogers could be part of a strong bullpen for the Twins for years ahead, I am including his name here. When I look at what the Marlins got for reliever David Phelps (who is similar, though right-handed, and older), I’d be incredibly curious what other teams might offer for a left-hander like Rogers who has been great for the Twins until the last few games. Unlikely to be dealt, but if a team is willing to give up three or four minor leaguers for him, I’d be curious. ---------------------------------------------------- It’s fun to guess what the team will do, but we still don’t know to what level the front office views this team. Sellers? Sellers only if overwhelmed? Buyers for long-term, high-talent assets? A combination of all of the above. There may be some surprises in the list above, and by Monday, there could be other surprises, maybe some minor leaguers. It will be as interesting a trade deadline as we have seen in recent years. There could be five moves, or they could do nothing, and a case could be made for both strategies. At the end of the day, each trade (made or not made) would have to be judged on its own merit. So, what do you think? Do you agree or disagree with the list above or any of the percentages? As a reminder, it’s important to remember that several of these player trades may make more sense in August rather than the July deadline.
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Article: LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da
Seth Stohs replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Fully healthy, I'd take my chances, particularly 2005 and 2006. Sure.- 33 replies
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Article: LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da
Seth Stohs replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Game 1... led until a 3-run homer allowed in the 8th inning. Game 3... had a 5-0 lead, a 5-2 lead into the 7th... Had a lead until it was tied in the 8th and lost on a walkoff in the 9th.- 33 replies
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Article: LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da
Seth Stohs replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
OK... maybe I should have worded it as "had an opportunity to win."- 33 replies
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The Twins announced that catcher John Ryan Murphy has been traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for 22-year-old Double-A lefty reliever Gabriel Moya.Acquired following the 2015 season from the New York Yankees in exchange for Aaron Hicks, John Ryan Murphy started the 2016 season with the Twins. When he didn't hit in the first month, he was sent down to Rochester where he has spent most of his time since. He has been very good defensively (elite-level pitch framer), but the 25-year-old backstop just was not able to reach the offensive potential that was assume when he spent parts of three years catching for the Yankees. As Nick pointed out shortly after the news came out, this would explain the addition of Anthony Recker in the Twins/Braves trade earlier this week. According to Baseball America, Moya had the Best Changeup in the Diamondbacks minor leagues. Here is a scouting report from 2080 Baseball from before this season: Click here to view the article
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Acquired following the 2015 season from the New York Yankees in exchange for Aaron Hicks, John Ryan Murphy started the 2016 season with the Twins. When he didn't hit in the first month, he was sent down to Rochester where he has spent most of his time since. He has been very good defensively (elite-level pitch framer), but the 25-year-old backstop just was not able to reach the offensive potential that was assume when he spent parts of three years catching for the Yankees. As Nick pointed out shortly after the news came out, this would explain the addition of Anthony Recker in the Twins/Braves trade earlier this week. https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/890611421985161216 While this trade may not be a page turner, a Mark Feinsand tweet from a bit ago may create further discussion. https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/890605061272780802 In Moya, the Twins get a young pitcher who has worked solely as a reliever in his career. This year at AA Jackson, he is 4-1 with a 0.82 ERA in 34 outings. In 43.2 innings, he has issued just 12 walks and struck out 68 batters. Jeff Wiser is the preeminent Arizona Diamondbacks prospect expert. Find his work at Inside the Zona. Here are his thoughts on Gabriel Moya: From Darren Wolfson: https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/890622910305492992 According to Baseball America, Moya had the Best Changeup in the Diamondbacks minor leagues. Here is a scouting report from 2080 Baseball from before this season:
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Article: LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da
Seth Stohs replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Obviously winning and losing is what matters... but we're talking about a team that is 71-31, and the Twins should have won two of the three games. Maybe it's too simplistic, but the idea that if they had two more relievers they could rely upon, they could be much better. At the end of the day, they are now 49-51 or whatever they are and instead of being Buyers, they probably should be at least partial sellers. But it shouldn't be lost upon people that this team isn't terrible and they may not be all that far off. I don't think that's jumping too far.- 33 replies
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Article: LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da
Seth Stohs replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think anyone is saying he's Barry Bonds or even a future All Star. We are saying that we think that he can be an improvement over Chris Gimenez, or a nice option as a 3rd catcher, backup 1B, part-time DH and also a bench bat. To me, he replaces Gimenez, and if they're not willing to deal Gimenez, he could take a spot of one of the relievers.- 33 replies
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Article: LAD 6, MIN 5: Uff Da
Seth Stohs replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
But see, that's just not true. The Twins could or even should have won two of the three games. And then other one was a 2-run game until after the weird delay.And that was without Miguel Sano for two of them.- 33 replies
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(Note that this is kind of a rambling, stream of consciousness opinion article typed up following a third straight very late night loss to the Dodgers. This series has completely thrown off my sleep pattern, but I also felt the need to write right away and express several thoughts that have crept into my mind through and then after the game. I hope it's coherent and enjoyable, and I hope you'll share your thoughts on it and on what the next steps are for our favorite team.) Even when the Minnesota Twins held a 5-0 or 5-2 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the middle innings of Wednesday night's game, there was no sense of confidence that the Twins would hold on. Those feelings proved accurate as the Dodgers clawed their way back and eventually won 6-5 in walk off fashion. The Twins are now 5.5 games back of Cleveland in the AL Central division, and four games behind second-place Kansas City in the division and for the second wild card spot. The Twins have lost ground to both teams each of the last four days. Think about that... five days ago, there were three teams within a game-and-a-half of each other, and now the Twins are a distant third place. So, what does it mean? What should the Twins and their front office do?When Twins fans thought that the team was on the cusp of acquiring lefty Jaime Garcia from Atlanta last Thursday, it signaled that the front office believed in the team enough to Buy. When the deal was actually consummated on Monday, it was again encouraging. The front office went out and made a move to make the 2017 team better. It verified that the front office believed that the team was worthy of investment and giving it an opportunity to reach a playoff spot this year. Maybe it even meant that more moves were on the way. Is it strange that three days later, the tone has completely changed? Instead of thinking Buy, Buy, Buy, the thoughts of Sell, Sell, Sell enter into the mind's of Twins fans. But is that the right decision? Is that fair to the 2017 Twins roster? Is that fair to the fans? Most important, is that fair to the big picture, longer term plans of the front office that have preached that they want a long-term, sustainable, championship caliber organization? It's easy to jump into sell mode. But at the same time, we knew coming out of the All-Star break that series with the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers would likely tell us a lot about this team. The Twins split six games with the Astros and Yankees (1-2 vs HOU, 2-1 vs NYY), but losing two out of three to the Tigers at Target Field hurt. And, as much as getting swept in Los Angeles is frustrating, it's important to acknowledge that they are clearly the best team in baseball. And the truth is that the Twins had a chance to win two of the three games played. And that's without Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano was unable to start the final two games. That tells me that this team is not far off. They are not in the same position they were in during this offseason, coming off of a 103-loss season. No longer does it appear that the winning would start in "a few years." That timeline has been pushed forward because of the work and dedication of this year's team. It is OK for Twins fans to think they can compete for a division title in 2017. It is also OK to acknowledge that looking at the 2017 pitching staff (both starters and bullpen) and say that big improvements are needed. It's OK to acknowledge that several of the key members of the offense are young and have improved. It's important to know that some of them will continue to improve going forward. It's also OK to acknowledge that Jorge Polanco has taken a huge step backwards in his development the last two months, going through the hated sophomore slump. The league has caught up to him, and it is now time for the still-just-24-year-old to adjust back to the league. I believe he can and he will. At the same time, as the offense hasn't been the big problem for the team, it's OK to acknowledge that the team ranks 20th in MLB in batting average and 19th in MLB in OPS. In other words, it can still get better. For right now, I think that the Twins need to take a step back so as not to rush to judgment. A day off on Thursday may be exact what they need. A trip to Oakland to take on the A's (who are 44-57) may also be good. A few more data points for the front office to take into account before Monday's trade deadline. Data points taken against a team that isn't potentially record-setting great. For right now, I think that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine need to stand pat and see what happens the next three games. If they're able to make up a couple of games, cautiously buy a mid-tier reliever or two, but don't give up the farm. If they continue to fall in the standings, the level of Sell can certainly be adjusted. For me, I don't see this team as needing to do a major sell. In other words, I would not trade Ervin Santana or Brian Dozier (with the oft-used caveat of "unless completely overwhelmed"). Dozier is under contract for 2018. Santana is under contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. They can be part of the continued winning. I wouldn't be afraid to take and make calls on impending free agents. That includes the likes of Brandon Kintzler, who could be a sell high candidate. It also includes Matt Belisle, who probably has minimal value, but has pitched pretty well of late. Hopefully Jaime Garcia will have a strong start on Friday so that if the Twins decide to deal, he could bring back a high-ceiling prospect to replace Huascar Ynoa in the system. The Twins dealt Ynoa and took on most of Garcia's remaining salary. Maybe the Twins consider eating more of Garcia's salary in return for a higher-level prospect. They could come out ahead in that deal. Consider internally which arbitration-eligible players will be brought back an in future plans. See what you can get for them. This includes Kyle Gibson, Ehire Adrianza and Eduardo Escobar, among others. But again, do not trade talent just to trade it. There should be a market for Ervin Santana. There could be a huge market for Taylor Rogers, if the Twins were to make him available. The Mariners gave up four minor leaguers for David Phelps. The Rockies gave up three minor leaguers for Pat Neshek, who is a free agent at the end of the season. Rogers has 4+ years of controllable time. The Twins could ask for the world for him, but they should only deal him if they get it. Listen on everyone, but be wise. The final thought I have is that the team should mostly stand pat at this point. After the deadline passes, I think they can make improvements to the team by trusting their minor leagues. The bullpen has struggled, but Trevor Hildenberger and Alan Busenitz have looked pretty solid in their opportunities. Next up, let's try out guys like Jake Reed and John Curtiss, two hard-throwing relievers who need to be added to the 40-man roster anyway this November. They both have the type of stuff that could help the Twins in 2017. By bringing them up, you're not saying that you're throwing in the towel. In my opinion, it's just the opposite. They're gaining MLB experience and hopefully getting over MLB nerves while also attempting to help you win ball games. Need a starter after Bartolo Colon is let go, see what Aaron Slegers can do. He's been terrific this season, and especially his last seven starts for the Red Wings, give him a shot. Felix Jorge has struggled in his return to Chattanooga after a couple of Twins starts, but Fernando Romero is on the 40-man roster and he's been dominant in AA. He could give the Twins a spark as a starter, or since he's already being limited to five innings per start, he could move to the bullpen later in the season to develop and control his innings. Stephen Gonsalves, like Slegers, isn't on the 40-man roster, so you'd hate to lose an option if you don't have to, but he might be the most ready to contribute to the Twins right now. Calling up those three isn't about throwing in the towel. It's about giving guys opportunities. Guys who, unlike Chris Heston and Adam Wilk, will be part of the future along with hopefully giving the Twins an opportunity to win. Couple these youngsters with Santana, Berrios and Mejia and look at what could be as early as 2018. And, at this point, it's inexplicable to me that Mitch Garver is not in the big leagues. I get that Jason Castro is signed long-term. I understand the value that Chris Gimenez brings to a ball club. But Garver is probably better than either one of them overall as a catcher. He also can back up Joe Mauer at first base. He's played a little left field and while no one think he's going to be probably even average defensively in the outfield, his right-handed bat could platoon with someone. He also can DH against lefties and be a bat off the bench. He's shown power and plate discipline this year in AAA. It's just time. Dealing Chris Gimenez (who also is a free agent at season's end) and going with Garver isn't about throwing in the towel. It's about making the team better... now, and going forward. So this long-winded meandering may move in several directions. To try to summarize my thoughts a little, check the following: 1.) The Twins are not completely out of it and playing Oakland before the trade deadline maybe helps. The toughest part of their schedule is complete. 2.) This team should NOT be buyers right now, unless the move is such a steal that it's a no-brainer, and ideally the player can be around beyond 2017. 3.) Even if they get to the point of Selling, don't Sell just to Sell. Remember that guys like Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier can be part of the answer on the field, not just in trades. 4.) Gauge the market for your impending free agents (Kintzler, Garcia, Gimenez, Belisle, etc.) 5.) Even if they do "Sell" on a couple of players, they should not consider that throwing in the towel. There should be enough pride with both the veterans and those young players trying to make their mark in the game to keep pushing and trying to win every game. 6.) Trust your system. Instead of going to aged wonders and hoping, call up some top talents and hope. Realize that hope also includes MLB development for young players who you likely will be relying on starting in 2018. This includes Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Jake Reed, John Curtiss and Mitch Garver. So, again, these opinions are all solely mine. I don't claim or pretend they are perfect. They are typed out without making notes, after a third tough, very late-night loss to the Dodgers. I apologize for spelling and grammar. I do not apology for the passion I have for the Minnesota Twins, and the hope that they are on the right path toward that sustainable success that we'd all like to see. Click here to view the article
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State Of The Twins: Reacting Too Quickly (Stream of Consciousness)
Seth Stohs posted an article in Twins
When Twins fans thought that the team was on the cusp of acquiring lefty Jaime Garcia from Atlanta last Thursday, it signaled that the front office believed in the team enough to Buy. When the deal was actually consummated on Monday, it was again encouraging. The front office went out and made a move to make the 2017 team better. It verified that the front office believed that the team was worthy of investment and giving it an opportunity to reach a playoff spot this year. Maybe it even meant that more moves were on the way. Is it strange that three days later, the tone has completely changed? Instead of thinking Buy, Buy, Buy, the thoughts of Sell, Sell, Sell enter into the mind's of Twins fans. But is that the right decision? Is that fair to the 2017 Twins roster? Is that fair to the fans? Most important, is that fair to the big picture, longer term plans of the front office that have preached that they want a long-term, sustainable, championship caliber organization? It's easy to jump into sell mode. But at the same time, we knew coming out of the All-Star break that series with the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers would likely tell us a lot about this team. The Twins split six games with the Astros and Yankees (1-2 vs HOU, 2-1 vs NYY), but losing two out of three to the Tigers at Target Field hurt. And, as much as getting swept in Los Angeles is frustrating, it's important to acknowledge that they are clearly the best team in baseball. And the truth is that the Twins had a chance to win two of the three games played. And that's without Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano was unable to start the final two games. That tells me that this team is not far off. They are not in the same position they were in during this offseason, coming off of a 103-loss season. No longer does it appear that the winning would start in "a few years." That timeline has been pushed forward because of the work and dedication of this year's team. It is OK for Twins fans to think they can compete for a division title in 2017. It is also OK to acknowledge that looking at the 2017 pitching staff (both starters and bullpen) and say that big improvements are needed. It's OK to acknowledge that several of the key members of the offense are young and have improved. It's important to know that some of them will continue to improve going forward. It's also OK to acknowledge that Jorge Polanco has taken a huge step backwards in his development the last two months, going through the hated sophomore slump. The league has caught up to him, and it is now time for the still-just-24-year-old to adjust back to the league. I believe he can and he will. At the same time, as the offense hasn't been the big problem for the team, it's OK to acknowledge that the team ranks 20th in MLB in batting average and 19th in MLB in OPS. In other words, it can still get better. For right now, I think that the Twins need to take a step back so as not to rush to judgment. A day off on Thursday may be exact what they need. A trip to Oakland to take on the A's (who are 44-57) may also be good. A few more data points for the front office to take into account before Monday's trade deadline. Data points taken against a team that isn't potentially record-setting great. For right now, I think that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine need to stand pat and see what happens the next three games. If they're able to make up a couple of games, cautiously buy a mid-tier reliever or two, but don't give up the farm. If they continue to fall in the standings, the level of Sell can certainly be adjusted. For me, I don't see this team as needing to do a major sell. In other words, I would not trade Ervin Santana or Brian Dozier (with the oft-used caveat of "unless completely overwhelmed"). Dozier is under contract for 2018. Santana is under contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. They can be part of the continued winning. I wouldn't be afraid to take and make calls on impending free agents. That includes the likes of Brandon Kintzler, who could be a sell high candidate. It also includes Matt Belisle, who probably has minimal value, but has pitched pretty well of late. Hopefully Jaime Garcia will have a strong start on Friday so that if the Twins decide to deal, he could bring back a high-ceiling prospect to replace Huascar Ynoa in the system. The Twins dealt Ynoa and took on most of Garcia's remaining salary. Maybe the Twins consider eating more of Garcia's salary in return for a higher-level prospect. They could come out ahead in that deal. Consider internally which arbitration-eligible players will be brought back an in future plans. See what you can get for them. This includes Kyle Gibson, Ehire Adrianza and Eduardo Escobar, among others. But again, do not trade talent just to trade it. There should be a market for Ervin Santana. There could be a huge market for Taylor Rogers, if the Twins were to make him available. The Mariners gave up four minor leaguers for David Phelps. The Rockies gave up three minor leaguers for Pat Neshek, who is a free agent at the end of the season. Rogers has 4+ years of controllable time. The Twins could ask for the world for him, but they should only deal him if they get it. Listen on everyone, but be wise. The final thought I have is that the team should mostly stand pat at this point. After the deadline passes, I think they can make improvements to the team by trusting their minor leagues. The bullpen has struggled, but Trevor Hildenberger and Alan Busenitz have looked pretty solid in their opportunities. Next up, let's try out guys like Jake Reed and John Curtiss, two hard-throwing relievers who need to be added to the 40-man roster anyway this November. They both have the type of stuff that could help the Twins in 2017. By bringing them up, you're not saying that you're throwing in the towel. In my opinion, it's just the opposite. They're gaining MLB experience and hopefully getting over MLB nerves while also attempting to help you win ball games. Need a starter after Bartolo Colon is let go, see what Aaron Slegers can do. He's been terrific this season, and especially his last seven starts for the Red Wings, give him a shot. Felix Jorge has struggled in his return to Chattanooga after a couple of Twins starts, but Fernando Romero is on the 40-man roster and he's been dominant in AA. He could give the Twins a spark as a starter, or since he's already being limited to five innings per start, he could move to the bullpen later in the season to develop and control his innings. Stephen Gonsalves, like Slegers, isn't on the 40-man roster, so you'd hate to lose an option if you don't have to, but he might be the most ready to contribute to the Twins right now. Calling up those three isn't about throwing in the towel. It's about giving guys opportunities. Guys who, unlike Chris Heston and Adam Wilk, will be part of the future along with hopefully giving the Twins an opportunity to win. Couple these youngsters with Santana, Berrios and Mejia and look at what could be as early as 2018. And, at this point, it's inexplicable to me that Mitch Garver is not in the big leagues. I get that Jason Castro is signed long-term. I understand the value that Chris Gimenez brings to a ball club. But Garver is probably better than either one of them overall as a catcher. He also can back up Joe Mauer at first base. He's played a little left field and while no one think he's going to be probably even average defensively in the outfield, his right-handed bat could platoon with someone. He also can DH against lefties and be a bat off the bench. He's shown power and plate discipline this year in AAA. It's just time. Dealing Chris Gimenez (who also is a free agent at season's end) and going with Garver isn't about throwing in the towel. It's about making the team better... now, and going forward. So this long-winded meandering may move in several directions. To try to summarize my thoughts a little, check the following: 1.) The Twins are not completely out of it and playing Oakland before the trade deadline maybe helps. The toughest part of their schedule is complete. 2.) This team should NOT be buyers right now, unless the move is such a steal that it's a no-brainer, and ideally the player can be around beyond 2017. 3.) Even if they get to the point of Selling, don't Sell just to Sell. Remember that guys like Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier can be part of the answer on the field, not just in trades. 4.) Gauge the market for your impending free agents (Kintzler, Garcia, Gimenez, Belisle, etc.) 5.) Even if they do "Sell" on a couple of players, they should not consider that throwing in the towel. There should be enough pride with both the veterans and those young players trying to make their mark in the game to keep pushing and trying to win every game. 6.) Trust your system. Instead of going to aged wonders and hoping, call up some top talents and hope. Realize that hope also includes MLB development for young players who you likely will be relying on starting in 2018. This includes Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Jake Reed, John Curtiss and Mitch Garver. So, again, these opinions are all solely mine. I don't claim or pretend they are perfect. They are typed out without making notes, after a third tough, very late-night loss to the Dodgers. I apologize for spelling and grammar. I do not apology for the passion I have for the Minnesota Twins, and the hope that they are on the right path toward that sustainable success that we'd all like to see.- 66 comments
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Article: Twins 2, Dodgers 6: Twins Fall Below .500
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It hurts a lot, but it happens. They're obviously not trying to strike out.- 51 replies
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Brad Steil is the minor league coordinator. It's his job to promote (or demote) players. Obviously he reports directly to the GM or CBO or both, and I'm certain they have discussed philosophies and strategies for making those decisions. He travels to the affiliates quite a bit and he obviously gets input from the coaching staffs for those teams. The GM/Front Office of the affiliates has absolutely nothing to do with baseball decisions. That's all up to the Twins, since they are their "property" and they pay them and such.
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A lot has changed in a week. The Twins made a trade. And the Twins have fallen in the races for the American League Central and for the wild card. The team is now under .500 after a tough series, getting swept in Los Angeles, coupled with great play from Cleveland and Kansas City. They are 5.5 games back of Cleveland now, and four games behind second-place Kansas City. They are also four games back of Kansas City for the second wild card spot. The Rays are in between. The Twins are not out of it, but man, in one week they have gone from buyer to potentially selling.After reviewing the National League teams last week, Nick reviewed the AL West teams yesterday. STANDINGS Boston Red Sox 56-47 New York Yankees 53-46 1.0 GB Tampa Bay Rays 53-49 2.5 GB Baltimore Orioles 48-53 7.0 GB Toronto Blue Jays 47-54 8.0 GB The Yankees are currently sitting in the first of two wild card positions, a half-game ahead of the Royals. The Rays are a half-game out of the second wild card spot. The Orioles are 4.5 games back, and the Blue Jays are 6.5 games back. THE BUYERS Unlike other divisions that we have highlighted, the AL East has three of their five teams which could fit into the buyers’ category. The Red Sox are already making moves. They released Pablo Sandoval, eating millions upon millions of dollars in salary. They called up top prospect Rafael Devers, and they traded a couple of prospects for former Twins infielder Eduardo Nunez. Last week, the Yankees made a big move, adding third baseman Todd Frazier and closer David Robertson from the White Sox. They are believed to be in serious talks with the A’s regarding Sonny Gray. The Rays don’t have the economic means to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for high-priced talent, but they’ll certainly be on the phone a lot over the rest of the week. Also noteworthy, any rumors (real or imagined) a few weeks ago that Chris Archer might be available are certainly untrue now. As the Twins continue to fall behind Cleveland and Kansas City and are further out of the wild card race, the Twins could find interest in the likes of Ervin Santana, Brandon Kintzler and even Jaime Garcia in the AL East. THE SELLERS That leaves two teams that should fit into the sellers category, the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles That the Orioles are only a handful of games under .500 is pretty impressive when you consider their starting pitching. Kevin Gausman is 7-7 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP.Wade Miley is 4-9 with a 5.69 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP.Ubaldo Jimenez is 4-6 with a 7.19 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP.Chris Tillman is 1-5 with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP.My guess is any of those pitchers would be available. Gausman, the #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft, would cost quite a bit and he would be intriguing in the long-term. The other three could be had for very little. The Orioles do have a couple of intriguing relievers. 31-year-old Brad Brach has been very good in the late innings. In 43.1 innings, he has a 2.70 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He’s got 46 strikeouts over 43.1 innings. Side-winding Darren O’Day is also likely available. Though he’s posting a 4.67 ERA over 34.2 innings, he has 43 strikeouts. Zach Britton has missed most of the season. He was the best reliever in baseball a year ago, but he’s only had limited time since returning and hasn’t yet returned to dominance. The Blue Jays The Jays got off to a terrible start. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitski have missed significant time with injury. They lost Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland and Jose Bautista got off to a miserable start. Bautista might be of interest since he’s come on a bit and his contract is up after the season. The name that Toronto should be throwing out is 1B Justin Smoak who, frankly, hasn’t been very good until this year when he has become a huge power hitter. Sell high. As it relates to the Twins and their need for pitching, the Jays probably aren’t a likely partner. They do, however, have Marcus Stroman who is one of those pitchers that has incredible talent and years of team control remaining. He’s the kind of guy that a team will be willing to give up a lot for, a couple of high-ranking prospects and more. Francisco Liriano hasn’t been particularly good (5.99 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he’s rumored to be of interest for the Royals. Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.52 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) does have 118 strikeouts in 109.1 innings. He could be intriguing. J.A. Happ is 3-7 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He’s pretty Jaime Garcia-like. SUMMARY As noted, the Twins have gone from buyer to we’ll-see, and there’s a chance they could be sellers by the deadline on Monday. That change likely means that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will not go overboard in terms of what they’d be willing to give up right now. However, if they still are buyers, there are some players, particularly a few bullpen guys, who the Twins could have some interest in acquiring. Click here to view the article
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