Willihammer
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Everything posted by Willihammer
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ALDS: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles
Willihammer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Other Baseball
And a ball between the legs! Hardy isn't having his best series. -
Yeah but this defense also made Blaine Gabbert look pretty good, at home. And, the Bills gave up ~600 yards to the Pats last week. But you can do the "x beat y who almost lost to z and z lit up x" game all day. I'll admit I may be experiencing symptoms of AVATAR syndrome.
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Shields is case study #1 on the weakness of ERA (or ERA+) as a statistic edit: I would say that there has probably been a measurable benefit to his career numbers owing to the efficacy of Tampa's shifting scheme, which benefits the entire staff - something he obviously would lose in Minnesota (in his first year anyway).
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Yes Shields has been an ace for the past 6 sesaons, no question. However he is on the wrong side of thirty, and has thrown a ton of pitches in his career. He regularly goes 120+ pitches/start. However his velocity is still good, it has actually improved his last 2 seasons. Which is a bonus owing to the fact that his strongest pitches are his curveball and changeup. Its tough to put a price on that in terms of prospects, but there is little reason to suggest that the Rays would be interested in Span. They would more likely want Revere, who is under team control for several years and plays premium defense, can steal, bunt, etc. He is pretty much the ideal small market player, and fills a weakness in the current offense - ie. inability to convert hit and runs due to high strikeouts up and down the Rays lineup. Revere for Shields should get everyone interested, provided the Pohlads are willing to pay for both Span and Shields.
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The first challenge is trying to understand the Marlins' motives. I dont' follow the Marlins closely but from here it looks like their owner(s) are awfully impulsive and may be less than hardcore baseball fans. Who's to say they wouldn't deal a Johnson or Buehrle just as a salary dump?
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I think the greatest test they've faced so far is Indianapolis. Ten is lousy, Hasselbeck is a bottom 5 QB so far. We'll see how the D holds up after the by when they have to face A-Rodg and Cutler twice each. No EAgles, Giants, or Falcons on the schedule, that helps too. They are definitely improved but might be playing over the heads a little right now.
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The Nats CF is already solvent: Bryce Harper
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edit: wasn't aware of the update
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No way Gardy gets fired midseason even if they start poorly again. That's not this FO's MO. In fact, I suspect that shortly before the meeting w/ season ticket holders, Gardy was already informed of the decision, and told it was strictly an appeasement style PR move to transition to Glynn/Cuellar/Bruno for 2014. Besides, why would the FO put any kind of moratorium on the guy who's already the longest tenured active manager in baseball. From a professional perspective, Gardy would just as soon walk now and take one of the 4-5 open Manager jobs this winter. Also a moratorium, implied or explicit, would only introduce the potential for a split clubhouse a la 2012 Red Sux and unnecessary drama. Nobody wants that. Instead, being clear about the plan align's everyone's interest in making a strong showing in 2013. If you think about it, this is about as smoothly as an organization can go about regime change. I o nly hope that Glynn will bring fresh, outsider thinking even if he is an internal guy.
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There you go. No one's feelings are hurt but I only wonder if 2013 will be a punt
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the only one actually fired is Liddle, correct?
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I assume Ullger and Andy will follow Gardy to his next gig following the '13 season.
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Sounds like they're going to use 2013 as a transition year. Vavra re-assigned, Liddle let go as of a few mins ago, says KFAN
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I also gaffed in the title of my last submission. Why can't submitters edit titles?
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Ya these aren't your '98 Vikings. If Ponder can dink and doink the ball at 70% clip and not turn the ball over, that should be enough. Unless we get down two scores early, then we need pick 6s or kick returns to get back into the game.
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Its not really fair to compare payrolls at this juncture to Oakland, Atlanta, the Nats, etc. They have drafted more smartly, and made smarter trades. Eg. the Rangers lost Lee to free agency so what do they do? Make a $100m run at Darvish who looks like he was one of the steals of last offseason. The O's brought in or extended premium talent at premium positions (Center field, SS, catcher). They spent Nishi-money on Wei-Yin Chen and got a solid #3 innings eater. They have a top 3b prospect to call up, and next year, a top pitching prospect. The Braves have fresh talent year after year yet never go into these two+ year 190 loss ruts. Oakland and Wash made a ballsy trade last offseason and both seem to be winners from it. Cinci traded top prospects for Latos. Meanwhile the Twins have traded away some of their best assets for nothing, sunk millions in ineffective, organizational guys and no-shows, and there's no MLB ready talent to fill their current weaknesses due to poor drafting. The Twins are going to have to spend their way out of the hole they've dug for themselves, if they are going to be competitive in the near future. That's all there is to it.
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*2nd best Sept Better than Cabrera, 2nd to Beltre
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Also had the best May, June, July, and August http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mike-trout-and-the-stretch-run/
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Who Will You Cheer On This Post-Season?
Willihammer replied to YourHouseIsMyHouse's topic in Other Baseball
Tigers -
Maddon has been batting Keppinger because he is one of the few guys who doesn't strike out all the time. Revere not only has a miniscule strikeout rate, but obviously plays great defense and is under team control for a few years yet. A Revere-Davis trade might appeal to everyone.
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Did Liam Hendriks show you enough??
Willihammer replied to greengoblinrulz's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If we are talking about next year then no ERA is not a good predictor compared to FIP, xFIP or the best, SIERA. -
The timing is interesting.Guillen, Tracy, VAlentine, Scoscia, Acta all have lost or could lose their jobs. Will the league recycle these guys or go looking for fresh talent?
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Ya the more the merrier. I don't think Mauer can possibly be as bad as Plouffe over there anyway.
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Yeah, they bid on Nishi before trading JJ. The Twins viewed JJ as injury prone, esp. prone to the debilitating condition of being a middle infielder who wasn't a switch hitter that they could slot in the 2 hole.
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Mackey: Twins may make changes to field staff
Willihammer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Interesting. Ullger has already lost his job at 3b coach, is he viewed in some additional disfavor? His replacement could even get his feet wet in season one when Gardy is ejected.
