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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Trivia: Who is the Red Sox 3rd catcher if Salty goes down?
  2. Willihammer
    I for one am glad we have a soft tossing lefty throwing in Fenway tonight instead of a spendy free agent.
  3. Willihammer
    What if they do flame out, or don't meet expectations. The 2015 team is as bad or worse than the 2013 team, then what? It seems to me we are right back where we are now. "Don't sign any big FAs now, we're not going to be competitive?" There is a HoF catcher in the prime of his career on this staff. A 33 year old who slugs more home runs than any Twin since Killebrew. We have some guys have been tested already and passed. There is a lot less that can go wrong in building around those sort of guys than these question marks I think. Not to mention, you know, the years being saved.
  4. Willihammer
    Instead of asking "In hindsight, would you have signed Carlos Silva to a 5 year contract after 2007 because he was 28?" (which he didn't sign), is, how have pitchers who commanded 5 year+ contracts in free agency at age 28 faired historically, and how can we use that sample, instead of this pretty random group of 28 year olds from 2007, to make some kind of prediction about how a 5 year commitment to Sanchez will eventually wind up looking? Obviously to do that you would have to go back through the years 2007 and earlier. Maybe I will blog about it myself one of these days if you don't want to.
  5. Willihammer
    Why the certainty that Sano/Buston/Meyer/Arcia et al will pan out by 2015? In my estimation, the much more certain thing is that Greinke or Sanchez will be around and performing at a high level in 2015 than even 1 of those 4.
  6. Willihammer
    Take the poster child for "classic bad pitching contract," Barry Zito. 7 years, 126 million. He's in the final year of it now, and earning less in terms of AAV than Buehrle and Santana. But he was signed a year earlier, and got locked into 2006 salaries and projections instead of 2008 or 2012 salaries and projections. It should go without sayin but those things tend to go up pretty fast in baseball. Which is why I think this aversion to long-term contracts is overblown. Even if your guy turns into a Zito, a team can still be a consistent contender as the Giants have shown. I like the longitudinal approach here but I think you should compare how much the guys who have been piecemealed onto contracts over that span have earned and produced, as compared to the guys who were locked up to big deals early. Carlos Silva earned 45 million between 2 separate 2-year contracts after leaving the Twins while posting a 6.77 ERA in under 200 innings. Nowhere near as bad as Zito's in retrospect. Heck, even Meche managed to post two 200+ inning seasons of sub-4 ERA ball in his 5-year, 55 million/deal. A bad contract but hardly an albatross in 2012 money, the final year of his deal. *edited for clarity
  7. Willihammer
    Wha, whay? That was fair, right?
  8. Willihammer
    God damnit Doum- I mean, yeah! Doumit!
  9. Willihammer
    Not me, not tonight. But what Harvey is doing on the year is at another level, you have to admit that.
  10. Willihammer
    Sheesh, you're not kidding. 7 IP, 10ks, 1 hit, 79 pitches.
  11. Willihammer
    Kudos to the ump for stopping that conference. I don't know what it is but these Boston games just seem to crawl.
  12. Willihammer
    I'll bite, what?
  13. Willihammer
    That's funny because Mauer was running on the pitch
  14. Willihammer
    not that it ended up mattering I guess. Its a good thing we don't have live pitchf/x on FSN. It is painfully clear already how much better a framer Saltalamachia is.
  15. Willihammer
    That pitch. That 1-1 pitch. Should have been a strike. Doumit.
  16. Willihammer
    How did Drew sneak that ball through the shift?
  17. Willihammer
    Napoli could lasso a midget bull with that necklace
  18. Willihammer
    LOL how did Doumit blocked that
  19. Willihammer
    http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6qzmy5qcv1qhcm62o1_500.png
  20. Willihammer
    What is better than an angel? Well, a mermaid maybe...
  21. Willihammer
    No I would never. http://p.twimg.com/AuqqbwMCQAIDZ5j.jpg:large
  22. Willihammer
    Jenny Dell of NESN: http://aviewfromthemonster.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/n9104741_38576189_9037.jpg?w=500
  23. Willihammer
    Yeah I conflated the two issues a bit. There is obviously a floor-ceiling talent scale against which risk is judged. Need vs. BPA is a different issue, to which I'd say again that there is probably a judgment you have to make that asks "is the BPA so much better than this other guy who could fill an expected need for us, that we're willing to risk whatever the market may or may not have available when the expected need arises? Plus, accounting for whatever transactional costs there are, is he still that good?"
  24. Willihammer
    To even get to the point where you are just a piece or two away from competing would suggest that your drafts work out such that the BPAs when your number is up are players that fill a deficiency in your farm at that moment. That would have to be some pretty incredible luck of the draw IMO, not to mention luck in hitting in all those positions at an even rate. When Felix was extended, Dave Cameron wrote a piece about "frictional costs" involved with player transactions. That its sort of a pipe dream to think that teams can just take a talent to market and exchange him for equal value, much less equal value that fills a position of need. Might be that the frictional costs involved with swapping out prospects outweigh any discrepencies in talent between the BPA's and the BPATFAN's (Best Players Available That Fill A Need).
  25. Willihammer
    Just to be argumentative, I'd argue that drafting the best player isn't necessarily the best move. For a number of reasons, primarily, that MLB players aren't barrels of oil. The market where these "commodities" get traded isn't perfect. Value isn't always clear, and in many cases trade prove to be incredibly lopsided. It might be that a team is better off drafting for need, particularly when you are talking about college players or guys believed to be closer to the majors than younger, riskier high-ceiling talents who play positions where you are already well stocked with young, risky high-ceiling talents.
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