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ALessKosherScott

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Everything posted by ALessKosherScott

  1. ALessKosherScott
    There may not be enough money in the entire pool to get a Louisiana kid who grew up wanting to play for LSU to sign.
  2. ALessKosherScott
    I doubt Enlow signs. But as long as there isn't a Twins run on college relievers, I'll be happy.
  3. ALessKosherScott
    This is the longest i've gone in my Shadow Draft without flipping a pick out in some time I get the whole wanting the Pohlads to spend every dime allotted to them. But at the end of the day, it comes down to who did you get? So far, they've gotten an athletic middle-of-the-field player with a good swing and a good idea at the plate, a college corner guy who mashed this year and a high school pitcher with a good delivery and a decent chance at having good stuff. And in this draft, it seems like some of the name brand commodities aren't at all different from their generic substitute. If the previous administration had done that at any point in the last five years, it would've saved some wear and tear on my liver.
  4. ALessKosherScott
    The right answer is never taking Adam Johnson 2.0.
  5. ALessKosherScott
    I think the good McKay as a pitcher reminds me a lot of Barry Zito. And the bad McKay is something closer to Christian Friedrich. At the same time, the bad McKay as a hitter is probably pretty close to the bad version of Joe Mauer and the good version the good version of the first baseman Mauer. So I'm not sure I get putting him on the mound given we're about 18 months away from a Mauer-less existence.
  6. ALessKosherScott
    I think Lewis makes a lot of sense if you don't buy Wright's upside or Greene's development curve. Good swing, great speed, could wind up just about anywhere on the diamond. I also think McKay's bat is the safest pick in the draft.
  7. ALessKosherScott
    The most telling quote in the Strib article is this one: “The only way to drill the draft and hit on every guy,” Johnson said, “is to have a time machine.” Anybody have a copy of Grey's Sports Almanac from 2050 lying around?
  8. ALessKosherScott
    If you could take the best feature of Greene, Wright and McKay and combine them together into one player you'd have a legit number one pick. You can't, but still. As it stands, this is a giant game of Let's Make A Deal. You have to pick a door and hope you hear a giant wa-wa sound. You can't get rid of the risk. And there'a a chance the grand prize is behind the Alex Faedo or David Peterson door. On the bright side, it's a deep draft of risks and you also have chances at 35 and 37 to win.
  9. ALessKosherScott
    Being the resident contrarian, if people were piling unrealistic expectations on Greene, I'd be quick to point that out, too. But here, people are using Greene's faults to make out Wright's stuff to be better than it is. What's wrong with Wright isn't that he's not good. It's that people are setting the bar to high at what he is right now. Lester's results stem from having one elite pitch (his cutter) two other plus-plus pitches (curve and change) and a good fastball. Santana's results stem from having one of the best sliders in the game, a good fastball and an average changeup. Wright at this moment is a 60-55-55-55 pitch. And the play it safe comp for what Wright can be has to assume he never evolves beyond that. People who get snippy at the Gibson comp don't realize that he was a 60-55-55-55 pitcher coming out of college and never evolved beyond that. The other scouting report above is Mike Pelfrey's, and to me he's also a great comp for what Wright might be. The team that drafts Wright is doing it because there's value in that. To me the question to debate is would a safe bet at the next Kyle Gibson worth passing up someone who might shine Liriano v. 2006 bright-- even if it's only for one year? I know Terry Ryan would answer yes. That answer is also part of the reason he was fired.
  10. ALessKosherScott
    I don't buy Lester as a high-end comp or Ervin Santana as the mid-range comp. Getting to Santana means developing better breaking stuff for Wright, which isn't a given. Getting to Lester means you have to take a 55 curveball and a 55 change up and make them both 65-70 pitches.More often than not, college pitchers like Wright get to the big leagues, but they're back-half of the rotation guys who get 110 to 130 strikeouts over the course of 200 innings. There are also guys like Wright who don't make it, and injury doesn't play a role in it. Does that make Greene less of a question mark? No. He has to develop, too. At the end of the day the one you pick is the one you think you can teach a change up to. Maybe that's Wright. But what if it isn't?
  11. ALessKosherScott
    Fair enough. How about this comp? With the names XXXXXXX out except Boras to protect the integrity of it. XXXXX and XXXXXXX have been running neck and neck all spring as the top pitching prospects in college baseball. XXXX moved ahead as the draft approached, though where the two would go in the draft remains uncertain because both have Scott Boras as an adviser. XXXXXXXX says XXXX is the best pitching prospect in school history, a rich tradition that includes XXXXXXX, and his 2.03 career ERA is a XXXXX record. XXXX suffered from draftitis in XXXXX, when he entered his high school senior season as a projected first-round pick, but that hasn't been the case this spring. He has blown away hitters consistently with a 92-97 mph fastball that's as notable for its sink as for its velocity. He's adept at getting grounders or strikeouts, depending on the situation. He has refined a straight changeup that will be a plus pitch and keeps lefthanders in check. He also has tightened his curveball and become more consistent with it. Add in a perfect pitcher's frame, good control and a competitive makeup, and the only thing that really bothers scouts about XXXX is Boras. XXXX could fall to XXXXX--where the XXXXX have a scouting director who used to coach at XXXXXXX and an owner who has signed Boras free agents the last two offseasons (XXXXXXX)--or perhaps further.
  12. ALessKosherScott
    The scouting report also doesn't take into account that Gibson is a guy who bumped his fastball to average 92 MPH throughout his Twins tenure. And I believe the old adage goes if you have three average secondary pitches in the MLB, you don't have a secondary pitch.
  13. ALessKosherScott
    I think the bold is the flaw in this argument, and it's something everyone has been doing across draft threads for months. You can pull all the numbers out of the air you want, but there's no way for sure of knowing who books their first trip to Dr. James Andrews' office first between Greene and Wright. And even if you could, it would get away from what the real risk of drafting first is-- that someone else in the top 5 ends up with a superstar while you end up with a nice, little player.
  14. ALessKosherScott
    Overstating Wright's stuff is exactly where this goes off the trail. A 60 fastball plus three 50-ish secondary pitches is Kyle Gibson. And people drove me crazy for years when they said Gibson was a safe bet to be the next Roy Halladay without really understanding what Halladay was. As for the best pitcher in this draft, its the one who figures out a legit secondary pitch, preferably a curve or change. What Greene's velocity gives him over the average pitcher is more rope in that it can be a 60 secondary pitch as opposed to a 70 one.
  15. ALessKosherScott
    I think I'd say it more this way. If they were passing on Greene to pick a guy like Royce Lewis because they feel he's the Carlos Correra or Francisco Lindor of the draft I could buy it. But passing on Greene to take someone because he's a safe bet to be only Mike Pelfrey bad if they miss is kind of dooming a franchise to be the next Cleveland Browns.
  16. ALessKosherScott
    My point is pretty simple. Calling Wright "safe" because Strasburg and Price were safe as the original article infers is like saying Royce Lewis is safe simply because Derek Jeter ended up in the Hall of Fame. It's not sound logic. The only thing that Wright, Price, Cole and Strasburg have in common is that they're college pitchers. That doesn't make Wright a safe bet to be anything. And yes, he could very well end up an ace. He could also be the next Ryan Mills-- aka the safest college pitcher the Twins drafted in the last 20 years. But my biggest problem is if you have your pick of anyone and you don't grab the person you think will be the biggest star of the draft, it's a pretty telling sign about the direction of the franchise.
  17. ALessKosherScott
    The two once in a decade arms of the last 20 years were Strasburg and Prior. Both were aces in the major league quickly. Your second tier group is probably something akin to Price, Jared Weaver, and Andrew Miller. All of them got to the majors quickly. But none were instant aces. Your next tier of guys were a bunch who brought mid-90s stuff consistently, but didn't have the command or secondary. Your Gerrit Coles and Mark Appels fit here. Bullington was a reach pick in a year where there was no clear number one. Wright seems to me to be low-to-mid 90s with some sink and decent command but not-so-great secondary pitches. If you want a blind comp that makes some sense, Kyle Gibson? Jeff Weaver? Greene may or may not be the pick. But calling Wright the safe pick doesn't really do justice to the risk involved in it.
  18. ALessKosherScott
    If the Twins brass is using the logic that Wright is the draft prospect that Strasburg, Price or (to a lesser extent) Cole were, I really fear for this franchise.
  19. ALessKosherScott
    My problem isn't so much safe as the blanket risk of high school pitcher v. college pitcher. Greene is going to succeed or fail for reasons completely unrelated to Josh Beckett, Matt Harrington or Colt Griffin. Ditto Kyle Wright and the bevy of college pitchers who've gone high. It's not a matter of safe because there isn't a Steven Strasburg in the draft who you could put into your rotation tomorrow in this draft. It's a question of which risk is most appealing to you, the potential that Greene blows his arm out tomorrow or the risk that McKay ad Wright may simply not be good enough.
  20. ALessKosherScott
    I think outside of McKay's curveball, none of them have the secondary pitches or command where you look at them as a sure thing to be anything in the majors. And McKay's curve hides that his fastball isn't in the same galaxy as Wright's and Greene's. Even McKay's bat, which probably in a worst case is already major league quality, isn't all that safe because his only position is first base. It comes down to who you project to develop another pitch, or more to the point who do you think you can work with to develop better pitches.
  21. ALessKosherScott
    The problem with draft picks is that they all should come with that Franklin Mills disclaimer: Past return not indicative of future performance. I'd regret them not taking Greene. But I'm also not the one signing the check to do it. I just hope the whole notion of "Playing it safe" isn't being bandied about. Playing it safe is what created the mess this franchise has been lately.
  22. ALessKosherScott
    If he's a hitter, my guess is the best case scenario is he's something of a Joe Mauer type, so he can still be of value but he needs to be a .300 hitter with a lot of doubles to play out. As a pitcher, I'd guess his good curve ball makes him a little more effective on righties and gives him a bit more neutral of a platoon split. But a lefty fly ball pitcher at Target Field scares the beejeebus out of me. I'll take Hunter Greene and the 70 fastball for $1000, Alex.
  23. ALessKosherScott
    Doing what they think is best to develop someone from the old regime and that Jay may not have been their pick with the six pick in 2015 draft aren't at all related.
  24. ALessKosherScott
    We'll find that out as they bring their own guys into the system.
  25. ALessKosherScott
    I think the bright side is Jay at least has the stuff to be the Twins next elite closer. It's less valuable than a #2 starter, but it's something every good team needs.
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