Thrylos

That is the risk that High School kids take when they do not sign. On the other hand, college education is worth something as well...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Every year about this time, I present profiles of College and High School players that the Minnesota Twins might draft. Last year, I identified pitching as a high need, so I presented the profiles of 23 pitchers, all potential Twins' draft picks. The Twins, properly, went ahead and picked a High School outfielder instead. I will be doing something different this year. Like past years, I will continue to present mini-profiles of every single Twins' draftee (you can find the 2012 profiles here) but instead of profiling 20some players that the Twins might pick, I will name several players (in the hundreds) that will be drafted. The thought behind this is that everyone knows the 4-5 players who make up the pool of talent that the Minnesota Twins will select with the 4th overall picks (for a refresher, look at the aggregate mock draft picks); however, there is little information about players in later rounds. I hope that this fills that gap somewhat. I am dividing it into 4 parts: College Pitchers, College Position Players, High School Pitchers and High School Position Players. This is the first part and includes College Pitchers. One thing that we learned from the 2012 draft, the first one under the new CBA, is that the new rules favor selecting College picks. Thus, I am certain that the 129 names I am presenting here will all get selected sometime in this draft and that the Twins will select 4-5 of them. This is just an naming names list; in the near future, additional one liners of information (micro scouting reports) will be added about each player, after I complete all four installments. I know it is somewhat of a huge undertaking, but it is fun. Here are 129 College pitcher names everyone should know before the 2013 MLB Draft, alphabetically: Tyler Alexander, LHP Carroll Chris Anderson RHP Jacksonville Mark Appel RHP Stanford Barrett Astin RHP Arkansas Alex Balog RHP San Fransisco Carson Baranik RHP Miami-Dade CC Tyler Barnette, RHP Charlotte Cal Becker, RHP, Palm Beach State Kirby Bellow LHP Texas Aaron Blair, RHP Marshall Matt Boyd LHP Oregon State Justin Brantley, RHP, Siena Hunter Brothers, RHP, Lipscomb Aaron Brown, LHP Pepperdine Shane Carle, RHP, Long Beach State Dan Child, RHP Oregon State Harrison Cooney, RHP, Florida Gulf Coast Dace Kime RHP Louisville Jonathon Crawford RHP Florida Brady Corless, RHP Salt Lake Dylan Covey RHP San Diego Josh Dezse RHP/1B Ohio State Eric Dorsch, RHP, Kent State Calvin Drummond RHP Arizona Christian Ryan Eades RHP LSU Erick Eck, RHP Wofford Kent Emanuel LHP North Carolina Zane Evans, RHP/C Georgia Tech Buck Farmer, RHP, Georgia Tech Kyle Finnegan, RHP Texas State Nathan Foriest LHP Middle Tennessee State Scott Frazier RHP Pepperdine Dakota Freese, RHP Des Moines Area CC David Garner RHP Michigan State David Gates RHP Howard Daniel Gibson LHP Florida Zachary Godley P Marco Gonzales LHP Gonzaga Alex Gonzalez RHP Oral Roberts Nicholas Gonzalez P South Florida Trevor Gott, RHP Kentucky Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma Chad Green, RHP, Louisville Matt Grimes, RHP Georgia Tech Jerad Grundy, LHP, Kentucky Alex Haines, LHP Seton Hill Michael Howard LHP Baylor Jason Hursh RHP Oklahoma State CK Irby RHP Samford Ricky Jacquez, RHP Central Arizona Jake Johansen, RHP Dallas Baptist Chase Johnson RHP Cal Poly Christian Jones LHP Oregon Jon Keller RHP Tampa Tanner Kiest, RHP Riverside Dace Kime, RHP Louisville Keenan Kish RHP Florida Erich Knab, RHP, Spartanburg Methodist Corey Knebel RHP Texas Forrest Koumas, RHP North Carolina Austin Kubitza RHP Rice Alex Lakatos, RHP, Michigan Randy LeBlanc RHP Tulane Tyler Linehan LHP Fresno State Corey Littrell, LHP Kentucky Ben Lively, RHP, Central Florida Sean Manaea LHP Indiana State Johnny Magliozzi, RHP, Florida Trey Masek RHP Texas Tech Kenny Mathews, LHP Riverside Mike Mayers, RHP Ole Miss Jake McCasland RHP New Mexico Kurt McCune RHP LSU Andrew Mitchell RHP TCU Albert Minnis, LHP, Wichita State Sam Moll LHP Memphis Spencer Navin C Vanderbilt Case Nixon C Alabama Dillon Overton LHP Oklahoma Paul Paez, LHP Rio Hondo Jordan Patterson OF South Alabama TJ Pecoraro RHP Vanderbilt Nick Petree, RHP Missouri State Philip Pfeifer LHP Vanderbilt Adam Plutko RHP UCLA Kayden Porter, RHP Southern Nevada CC Cody Reed, LHP Northwest Mississippi Tony Rizzotti RHP Tulane Nic Pivetta, RHP New Mexico Drake Roberts 2B Navarro Angel Rosa SS Alcorn State Nick Rumbelow, RHP LSU Javier Salas RHP Miami Lukas Schiraldi, RHP Navarro CC Brad Schreiber, RHP Purdue (Twins' 2012 40th round pick) Jimmie Sherfy, RHP Oregon Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada John Simms RHP Rice Tyler Skulina, RHP Kent State Dan Slania RHP Notre Dame DeAndre Smelter, RHP Georgia Tech Myles Smith, RHP, Lee CC DJ Snelten, LHP Minnesota Ryne Stanek RHP Arkansas Teddy Stankiewicz RHP Seminole State JC Gandy Stubblefield RHP Texas A&M Colby Suggs RHP Arkansas Stephen Tarpley, LHP Scottsdale CC Trey Teakell, RHP, TCU Jeff Thompson, RHP, Louisville Andrew Thurman RHP UC Irvine Justin Topa RHP Long Island U Brooklyn Josh Uhen, RHP Wisconsin-Milwaukee Nick Vander Tuig RHP UCLA AJ Vanegas RHP Stanford Austin Voth, RHP Washington Konner Wade RHP Arizona Michael Wagner, RHP San Diego Bobby Wahl RHP Ole Miss Billy Waltrip LHP Oklahoma Zach Weiss, RHP, UCLA Ben Wetzler LHP Oregon State David Whitehead, RHP, Elon Karsten Whitson RHP Florida Trevor Williams RHP Arizona State Tom Windle LHP Minnesota Cole Wiper RHP Oregon Rob Zastryzny, LHP, Missouri Kevin Ziomek LHP Vanderbilt http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10292683/mlbdraft.0_standard_352.0.jpg

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Every year about this time, I present profiles of College and High School players that the Minnesota Twins might draft. Last year, I identified pitching as a high need, so I presented the profiles of 23 pitchers, all potential Twins' draft picks. The Twins, properly, went ahead and picked a High School outfielder instead. I will be doing something different this year. Like past years, I will continue to present mini-profiles of every single Twins' draftee (you can find the 2012 profiles here) but instead of profiling 20some players that the Twins might pick, I will name several players (in the hundreds) that will be drafted. The thought behind this is that everyone knows the 4-5 players who make up the pool of talent that the Minnesota Twins will select with the 4th overall picks (for a refresher, look at the aggregate mock draft picks); however, there is little information about players in later rounds. I hope that this fills that gap somewhat. I am dividing it into 4 parts: College Pitchers, College Position Players, High School Pitchers and High School Position Players. This is the first part and includes College Pitchers. One thing that we learned from the 2012 draft, the first one under the new CBA, is that the new rules favor selecting College picks. Thus, I am certain that the 129 names I am presenting here will all get selected sometime in this draft and that the Twins will select 4-5 of them. This is just an naming names list; in the near future, additional one liners of information (micro scouting reports) will be added about each player, after I complete all four installments. I know it is somewhat of a huge undertaking, but it is fun. Here are 129 College pitcher names everyone should know before the 2013 MLB Draft, alphabetically: Tyler Alexander, LHP Carroll Chris Anderson RHP Jacksonville Mark Appel RHP Stanford Barrett Astin RHP Arkansas Alex Balog RHP San Fransisco Carson Baranik RHP Miami-Dade CC Tyler Barnette, RHP Charlotte Cal Becker, RHP, Palm Beach State Kirby Bellow LHP Texas Aaron Blair, RHP Marshall Matt Boyd LHP Oregon State Justin Brantley, RHP, Siena Hunter Brothers, RHP, Lipscomb Aaron Brown, LHP Pepperdine Shane Carle, RHP, Long Beach State Dan Child, RHP Oregon State Harrison Cooney, RHP, Florida Gulf Coast Dace Kime RHP Louisville Jonathon Crawford RHP Florida Brady Corless, RHP Salt Lake Dylan Covey RHP San Diego Josh Dezse RHP/1B Ohio State Eric Dorsch, RHP, Kent State Calvin Drummond RHP Arizona Christian Ryan Eades RHP LSU Erick Eck, RHP Wofford Kent Emanuel LHP North Carolina Zane Evans, RHP/C Georgia Tech Buck Farmer, RHP, Georgia Tech Kyle Finnegan, RHP Texas State Nathan Foriest LHP Middle Tennessee State Scott Frazier RHP Pepperdine Dakota Freese, RHP Des Moines Area CC David Garner RHP Michigan State David Gates RHP Howard Daniel Gibson LHP Florida Zachary Godley P Marco Gonzales LHP Gonzaga Alex Gonzalez RHP Oral Roberts Nicholas Gonzalez P South Florida Trevor Gott, RHP Kentucky Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma Chad Green, RHP, Louisville Matt Grimes, RHP Georgia Tech Jerad Grundy, LHP, Kentucky Alex Haines, LHP Seton Hill Michael Howard LHP Baylor Jason Hursh RHP Oklahoma State CK Irby RHP Samford Ricky Jacquez, RHP Central Arizona Jake Johansen, RHP Dallas Baptist Chase Johnson RHP Cal Poly Christian Jones LHP Oregon Jon Keller RHP Tampa Tanner Kiest, RHP Riverside Dace Kime, RHP Louisville Keenan Kish RHP Florida Erich Knab, RHP, Spartanburg Methodist Corey Knebel RHP Texas Forrest Koumas, RHP North Carolina Austin Kubitza RHP Rice Alex Lakatos, RHP, Michigan Randy LeBlanc RHP Tulane Tyler Linehan LHP Fresno State Corey Littrell, LHP Kentucky Ben Lively, RHP, Central Florida Sean Manaea LHP Indiana State Johnny Magliozzi, RHP, Florida Trey Masek RHP Texas Tech Kenny Mathews, LHP Riverside Mike Mayers, RHP Ole Miss Jake McCasland RHP New Mexico Kurt McCune RHP LSU Andrew Mitchell RHP TCU Albert Minnis, LHP, Wichita State Sam Moll LHP Memphis Spencer Navin C Vanderbilt Case Nixon C Alabama Dillon Overton LHP Oklahoma Paul Paez, LHP Rio Hondo Jordan Patterson OF South Alabama TJ Pecoraro RHP Vanderbilt Nick Petree, RHP Missouri State Philip Pfeifer LHP Vanderbilt Adam Plutko RHP UCLA Kayden Porter, RHP Southern Nevada CC Cody Reed, LHP Northwest Mississippi Tony Rizzotti RHP Tulane Nic Pivetta, RHP New Mexico Drake Roberts 2B Navarro Angel Rosa SS Alcorn State Nick Rumbelow, RHP LSU Javier Salas RHP Miami Lukas Schiraldi, RHP Navarro CC Brad Schreiber, RHP Purdue (Twins' 2012 40th round pick) Jimmie Sherfy, RHP Oregon Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada John Simms RHP Rice Tyler Skulina, RHP Kent State Dan Slania RHP Notre Dame DeAndre Smelter, RHP Georgia Tech Myles Smith, RHP, Lee CC DJ Snelten, LHP Minnesota Ryne Stanek RHP Arkansas Teddy Stankiewicz RHP Seminole State JC Gandy Stubblefield RHP Texas A&M Colby Suggs RHP Arkansas Stephen Tarpley, LHP Scottsdale CC Trey Teakell, RHP, TCU Jeff Thompson, RHP, Louisville Andrew Thurman RHP UC Irvine Justin Topa RHP Long Island U Brooklyn Josh Uhen, RHP Wisconsin-Milwaukee Nick Vander Tuig RHP UCLA AJ Vanegas RHP Stanford Austin Voth, RHP Washington Konner Wade RHP Arizona Michael Wagner, RHP San Diego Bobby Wahl RHP Ole Miss Billy Waltrip LHP Oklahoma Zach Weiss, RHP, UCLA Ben Wetzler LHP Oregon State David Whitehead, RHP, Elon Karsten Whitson RHP Florida Trevor Williams RHP Arizona State Tom Windle LHP Minnesota Cole Wiper RHP Oregon Rob Zastryzny, LHP, Missouri Kevin Ziomek LHP Vanderbilt http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10292683/mlbdraft.0_standard_352.0.jpg

My pleasure. Looks like the number 3 pick is up for grabs as well, since the guys who are rotating for the Twins are also rotating for Colorado (they got pick number 3.)

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- The 2013 MLB Draft is less than a month away (it takes place from June 6th until June 8th.) The Minnesota Twins have the 4th pick this season, and there is a lot of disagreement (as is with every draft in every season in every sport) about who is the best pick for them and who they will select. And 'tis the season for mock drafts, so I am presenting the picks experts (and non-experts) think the Twins will make, and see whether there is a consensus. I am listing all of the mock drafts to date since late March. If a particular writer made multiple mock drafts, only the latest version is shown. If you know of any additional mock drafts, please let me know. The picks are presented by mock draft date, mock draft place & name of the writer (with links to their web pages) and the name, school and position of the Twins' likely draftee. Regardless whether the Twins will pick any of these players, all these players are "names to know" for the 2013 draft: May: 5/11/13: MLB Draft Site (ebowser18) : Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 5/10/13: Sports Illustrated (Dave Perkin) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 5/9/13: Baseball America (Jim Callis) : Kohl Steward, RHP, St. Pius X High (TX) 5/9/13: My MLB Draft : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) 5/9/13: 85% Sports (Eugene Tierney) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University 5/7/13: Scout.com (Kiley McDaniel) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 5/7/13: Bleacher Report (Tim Rapp) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) 5/7/13: MLB Unique: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 5/6/13: MLB Draft Insider (Chris Crawford) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) 5/6/13: Bleacher Report (Adam Wells) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University 5/6/13: Bleacher Report (Mike Rosenbaum) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego 5/2/13: Crawfish Boxes (Anthony Boyer) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego 5/2/13: MLB Draft Prospects (Matt Garrioch) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University 5/1/13: Boyd's Bets (Jim Boyd) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego April: 4/28/13: Through The Fence (Dan Kirby) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 4/18/13: Minor League Rundown : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) 4/18/13: Sports City: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 4/13/13: BH Picks: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 4/12/13: The Baseball Draft Report: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 4/11/13: Big League Futures (Kevin R) : Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 4/2/13 : Big League Futures (Matt Grabusky) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) March: 3/23/13: Minor League Ball (John Sickels) : Jonathan Denney, C, Yukon HS (OK) Based on this there are 5 names (alphabetically: Bryant, Frazier, Manaea, Meadows, Stanek) that rotate in most of the mock drafts as the Twins' pick. John Sickels and Jim Callis made different picks (HS C Denney and HS P Steward, respectively.) I do like Sickels' pick because Catcher is a position of need in the Twnis' organization at this point. Also, the conventional consensus wisdom is that RHPs Mark Appel (Stanford) and Johnathan Gray (Oklahoma) will be taken with the first 2 picks and will not be available for the Twins. I will probably update this at the end of the month as the draft nears. http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10292683/mlbdraft.0_standard_352.0.jpg

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- The 2013 MLB Draft is less than a month away (it takes place from June 6th until June 8th.) The Minnesota Twins have the 4th pick this season, and there is a lot of disagreement (as is with every draft in every season in every sport) about who is the best pick for them and who they will select. And 'tis the season for mock drafts, so I am presenting the picks experts (and non-experts) think the Twins will make, and see whether there is a consensus. I am listing all of the mock drafts to date since late March. If a particular writer made multiple mock drafts, only the latest version is shown. If you know of any additional mock drafts, please let me know. The picks are presented by mock draft date, mock draft place & name of the writer (with links to their web pages) and the name, school and position of the Twins' likely draftee. Regardless whether the Twins will pick any of these players, all these players are "names to know" for the 2013 draft: May: 5/11/13: MLB Draft Site (ebowser18) : Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 5/10/13: Sports Illustrated (Dave Perkin) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 5/9/13: Baseball America (Jim Callis) : Kohl Steward, RHP, St. Pius X High (TX) 5/9/13: My MLB Draft : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) 5/9/13: 85% Sports (Eugene Tierney) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University 5/7/13: Scout.com (Kiley McDaniel) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 5/7/13: Bleacher Report (Tim Rapp) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) 5/7/13: MLB Unique: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 5/6/13: MLB Draft Insider (Chris Crawford) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) 5/6/13: Bleacher Report (Adam Wells) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University 5/6/13: Bleacher Report (Mike Rosenbaum) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego 5/2/13: Crawfish Boxes (Anthony Boyer) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego 5/2/13: MLB Draft Prospects (Matt Garrioch) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University 5/1/13: Boyd's Bets (Jim Boyd) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego April: 4/28/13: Through The Fence (Dan Kirby) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 4/18/13: Minor League Rundown : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) 4/18/13: Sports City: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 4/13/13: BH Picks: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 4/12/13: The Baseball Draft Report: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA) 4/11/13: Big League Futures (Kevin R) : Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 4/2/13 : Big League Futures (Matt Grabusky) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA) March: 3/23/13: Minor League Ball (John Sickels) : Jonathan Denney, C, Yukon HS (OK) Based on this there are 5 names (alphabetically: Bryant, Frazier, Manaea, Meadows, Stanek) that rotate in most of the mock drafts as the Twins' pick. John Sickels and Jim Callis made different picks (HS C Denney and HS P Steward, respectively.) I do like Sickels' pick because Catcher is a position of need in the Twnis' organization at this point. Also, the conventional consensus wisdom is that RHPs Mark Appel (Stanford) and Johnathan Gray (Oklahoma) will be taken with the first 2 picks and will not be available for the Twins. I will probably update this at the end of the month as the draft nears. http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10292683/mlbdraft.0_standard_352.0.jpg

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- For a few years now, I have been doing a feature, pretty much on a monthly basis, which was called "Who is hot in the Twins' minors" (you can see last seasons' versions here.) This included a list of the best players in the Twins' system, based on cumulative performance year to date, broken down by position. I am giving it a new twist this year: I am listing the best team of 25 players in the Twins' organization, by position based on cumulative performance. This is listed as a 25-man roster squad with starters and bench and a rotation an a pen. No batting order. Ages, handedness and team are also listed along with the stats. This is the first one and I will be doing those every 3-4 weeks. This first version of the Twins' top 25 in the minors is dominated by players from the Fort Myers Miracle and Cedar Rapids Kernels teams that dominate their leagues, but there is a good representation from the Rochester Red Wings and New Britain Rock Cats squads. This is pretty small sample size and the results can be skewed, especially on the pitching side. And of course there are some surprises. The 2013 Twins minors' best 25 are: Starters: C - Josmil Pinto (RHB, 24, AA) : .294/.400/.544, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 80 PA 1B - Chris Colabello (RHB, 29 AAA) : .328/.377/.642, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 77 PA 2B - Eddie Rosario (SHB, 21, A+) : .338/.368/.500, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 87 PA 3B - Miguel Sano (RHB, 20, A+) : .384/.439/.740, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB, 82 PA SS - AJ Petersen (RHB, 24, A+) : .345/.418/.448, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, 68 PA OF - Byron Buxton (RHB, 19, A) : .404/.514/.614, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 7 SB, 70 PA OF - Clete Thomas (LHB, 29, AAA): .347/.448/.571, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, 58 PA OF - Danny Ortiz (LHB, 23, AA): .313/.356/.582, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 73 PA DH - Mike Gonzales (LHB, 25, A+) : .238/.338/.476, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 77 PA Bench: C - Kyle Knudson (RHB, 25, A+) : .432/.512/.649, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 43 PA IF - Nate Hanson (RHB, 26, AA/AAA) : .317/.405/.429, 2 HR, 11 RBI 1B - DJ Hicks (LHB, 23, A): .310/.385/.586, 3 HR, 12 RBI OF - JD Williams (SHB, 22, A): .270/.429/.514, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 6 SB, 49 PA UT - Matt Koch (RHB, 24, A+) : .405/.490/.548, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 49 PA Rotation: Tyler Duffey (RHP, 22, A) : 2-1, 2.29 ERA, 3 GS, 19.2 IP, 3 BB, 17 K, 0.661 WHIP (.184 BABIP), 7.78 K/9, 5.67 K/BB DJ Baxendale (RHP, 22, A+) : 2-0, 1.04 ERA, 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 3 BB, 15 K, 0.750 WHIP (.200 BABIP), 7.79 K/9, 5 K/BB Alex Meyer (RHP, 23, AA) : 1-0 , 1.69 ERA, 3 GS, 16 IP, 7 BB, 19 K, 1.250 WHIP (.317 BABIP), 10.69 K/9, 2.71 K/BB Kyle Gibson (RHP, 25, AAA) : 0-1, 4.43 ERA, 4 GS, 20.1 IP, 1.279 WHIP (.321 BABIP), 8.41 K/9, 2.71 K/BB Andew Albers (LHP, 27, AAA): 0-0, 3.09 ERA, 3 GS, 11.2 IP, 1.286 WHIP (.314 BABIP), 8.49 K/9, 2.75 K/BB Bullpen: Corey Williams (LHP, 22, A+) : 2.08 ERA, 7 G, 8.2 IP, 4 Sv, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.692 WHIP (.231 BABIP), 3.12 K/9 INF K/BB Adrian Salcedo (RHB, 22, A+): 4.82 ERA, 6 G, 9.1 IP, 0 BB, 11 K, 1.179 WHIP (.407 BABIP) 10.61 K/9, INF K/BB Caleb Thielbar (LHP, 26, AAA) : 3.68 ERA, 8 G, 14.2 IP, 2 BB, 18 K, 1.364 WHIP (.405 BABIP), 11.05 K/9, 9 K/BB Steven Gruver (LHP, 24, A) : 0.64 ERA, 4 G, 1 GS, 14 IP, 1 Sv, 2 BB, 16 K, 0.714 WHIP (.258 BABIP), 10.29 K/9, 8 K/BB Tyles Jones (RHB, 23, A) : 0.96 ERA, 5 G, 9.1 IP, 2 Sv, 2 BB, 11 K, 0.750 WHIP (.217 BABIP), 10.61 K/9, 5.50 K/BB Ryan O'Rourke (LHP, 25, A+) : 0.00 ERA, 5 G, 9 1P, 1 BB, 7 K, 0.333 WHIP (.100 BABIP), 7 K/9, 7 K/BB Zach Jones (RHB, 22, A+) : 1.00 ERA, 7 G, 9 IP, 5 Sv, 2 BB, 13 K, 0.667 WHIP (.176 BABIP), 12 K/9, 4 K/BB http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8241/8606001039_53154c362b_z.jpg

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- For a few years now, I have been doing a feature, pretty much on a monthly basis, which was called "Who is hot in the Twins' minors" (you can see last seasons' versions here.) This included a list of the best players in the Twins' system, based on cumulative performance year to date, broken down by position. I am giving it a new twist this year: I am listing the best team of 25 players in the Twins' organization, by position based on cumulative performance. This is listed as a 25-man roster squad with starters and bench and a rotation an a pen. No batting order. Ages, handedness and team are also listed along with the stats. This is the first one and I will be doing those every 3-4 weeks. This first version of the Twins' top 25 in the minors is dominated by players from the Fort Myers Miracle and Cedar Rapids Kernels teams that dominate their leagues, but there is a good representation from the Rochester Red Wings and New Britain Rock Cats squads. This is pretty small sample size and the results can be skewed, especially on the pitching side. And of course there are some surprises. The 2013 Twins minors' best 25 are: Starters: C - Josmil Pinto (RHB, 24, AA) : .294/.400/.544, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 80 PA 1B - Chris Colabello (RHB, 29 AAA) : .328/.377/.642, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 77 PA 2B - Eddie Rosario (SHB, 21, A+) : .338/.368/.500, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 87 PA 3B - Miguel Sano (RHB, 20, A+) : .384/.439/.740, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB, 82 PA SS - AJ Petersen (RHB, 24, A+) : .345/.418/.448, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, 68 PA OF - Byron Buxton (RHB, 19, A) : .404/.514/.614, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 7 SB, 70 PA OF - Clete Thomas (LHB, 29, AAA): .347/.448/.571, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, 58 PA OF - Danny Ortiz (LHB, 23, AA): .313/.356/.582, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 73 PA DH - Mike Gonzales (LHB, 25, A+) : .238/.338/.476, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 77 PA Bench: C - Kyle Knudson (RHB, 25, A+) : .432/.512/.649, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 43 PA IF - Nate Hanson (RHB, 26, AA/AAA) : .317/.405/.429, 2 HR, 11 RBI 1B - DJ Hicks (LHB, 23, A): .310/.385/.586, 3 HR, 12 RBI OF - JD Williams (SHB, 22, A): .270/.429/.514, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 6 SB, 49 PA UT - Matt Koch (RHB, 24, A+) : .405/.490/.548, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 49 PA Rotation: Tyler Duffey (RHP, 22, A) : 2-1, 2.29 ERA, 3 GS, 19.2 IP, 3 BB, 17 K, 0.661 WHIP (.184 BABIP), 7.78 K/9, 5.67 K/BB DJ Baxendale (RHP, 22, A+) : 2-0, 1.04 ERA, 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 3 BB, 15 K, 0.750 WHIP (.200 BABIP), 7.79 K/9, 5 K/BB Alex Meyer (RHP, 23, AA) : 1-0 , 1.69 ERA, 3 GS, 16 IP, 7 BB, 19 K, 1.250 WHIP (.317 BABIP), 10.69 K/9, 2.71 K/BB Kyle Gibson (RHP, 25, AAA) : 0-1, 4.43 ERA, 4 GS, 20.1 IP, 1.279 WHIP (.321 BABIP), 8.41 K/9, 2.71 K/BB Andew Albers (LHP, 27, AAA): 0-0, 3.09 ERA, 3 GS, 11.2 IP, 1.286 WHIP (.314 BABIP), 8.49 K/9, 2.75 K/BB Bullpen: Corey Williams (LHP, 22, A+) : 2.08 ERA, 7 G, 8.2 IP, 4 Sv, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.692 WHIP (.231 BABIP), 3.12 K/9 INF K/BB Adrian Salcedo (RHB, 22, A+): 4.82 ERA, 6 G, 9.1 IP, 0 BB, 11 K, 1.179 WHIP (.407 BABIP) 10.61 K/9, INF K/BB Caleb Thielbar (LHP, 26, AAA) : 3.68 ERA, 8 G, 14.2 IP, 2 BB, 18 K, 1.364 WHIP (.405 BABIP), 11.05 K/9, 9 K/BB Steven Gruver (LHP, 24, A) : 0.64 ERA, 4 G, 1 GS, 14 IP, 1 Sv, 2 BB, 16 K, 0.714 WHIP (.258 BABIP), 10.29 K/9, 8 K/BB Tyles Jones (RHB, 23, A) : 0.96 ERA, 5 G, 9.1 IP, 2 Sv, 2 BB, 11 K, 0.750 WHIP (.217 BABIP), 10.61 K/9, 5.50 K/BB Ryan O'Rourke (LHP, 25, A+) : 0.00 ERA, 5 G, 9 1P, 1 BB, 7 K, 0.333 WHIP (.100 BABIP), 7 K/9, 7 K/BB Zach Jones (RHB, 22, A+) : 1.00 ERA, 7 G, 9 IP, 5 Sv, 2 BB, 13 K, 0.667 WHIP (.176 BABIP), 12 K/9, 4 K/BB http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8241/8606001039_53154c362b_z.jpg

I am really happy about the Twins start. Really happy. And much better than 2012 (and 2011). BUT... I am not impressed. I'd be impressed if they were 12-3 or something (like Colorado and Atlanta) I think that it is promising (and I second all about the minor leaguers and the pipeline) but I am not about to applaud mediocrity... Sorry

Last season, I started a Random Twins Thoughts series that included a post a week every Tuesday. I was told that people actually liked those and missed them when I stopped, so I will continue them this season. I decided to change it up a bit this season and do it a bit more randomly. This first one is after the Twins competed their first series of their young 2013 season, hosting the Detroit Tigers who are the favorite to win (at least) the AL Central in the 2013 season. I will try to coincide these thought posts with the end of Twins' series. As previously, the content will be on the major league team, as well as the minor league team; I will also include additional factoid and links to Twins' stuff, like last season. Here is the first installment: After Wednesday's win, it was the first time the Twins were at .500 after the 2010 season. Good to see them winning the opening series 2-1 at home over the AL Central favorites. If the Twins win at home, play close to .500 ball on the road, and win over the other AL Central teams, great things will happen. I think that a lot of fans were surprised by the strong showings of Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. From what I saw and reported last week from Fort Myers, I was hopeful for both Correia and Pelfrey. This is in contrast to the 3 pitchers who opened the 2012 season in Baltimore: Carl Pavano allowed 4 runs (all earned) in 7 IP, Fransisco Liriano 6 (5 Earned) in 4 IP; Anthony Swarzak did a good job with 1 run in 5 IP. Great to see the comeback by the Twins' bottom of the order last night against the Tigers' committee of closers. Trevor Plouffe, Jamey Carroll, Wilkin Ramirez, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar were the participants and it is clear that this comeback might had not happened if the Twins gave Drew Butera a position on the 2013 25-man roster. Major kudos to Joe Vavra who aggressively (unlike his predecessors Steve Liddle and Scott Ullger) waved in Dozier for the winning run. It great (and about time) to see the Twins play aggressively and fight hard on the diamond. Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks have both been struggling at the plate (and they both got their first base hits of the season in the Twins' 8th inning), but the season is still young. The Twins do not have many other Centerfielder options, but I can see Ramirez taking some PAs from Parmelee, especially against LHPs The Twins sold only 19,000 season tickets for 2013, down 3,000 from 2012, which was down 2,000 from 2011. Not winning does not sell tickets, but the revenue loss due to loss of additional non-season ticket attendance is higher than that due to the loss of season tickets. Still the Twins have sold as many season tickets as the total average home attendance of three other MLB teams in 2012: The Astros (19,848), Indians (19,797) and the Rays (19,255). The latter are the poster boys of the exception of the aforementioned rule that winning sells tickets. A team prime for moving to a more baseball-friendly place. Today is the opening day for all full season Twins' minor league affiliates (International League, AAA, Rochester Red Wings, Eastern League, AA, New Britain Rock Cats, Florida State League, high A, Fort Myers Miracle and the newest affiliate, Midwest League, A, Cedar Rapids Kernels.) Speaking of the Kernels, if you are interested in following them, you should bookmark the Knuckleballs Blog, where Jim Crikket (a total Kernels' insider) will follow them from Cedar Rapids with great original content like this. And even if you don't care about the Twins' minor league affiliates (shame on you), you should bookmark them, because the guys and gals of Knuckleballs offer some of the greatest independent blogging coverage of the Twins (including some great game time chats as well as awesome weekly podcasts.) Since we are talking about independent Twins' blogs, make sure you follow The Twins' Fan from Afar, for New Britain Rock Cats coverage, k-bro's baseball blog for a kinder gentler side of Twins coverage and her trademark paper dolls, Peanuts from Heaven, for great lighter coverage of Twins and Twins Trivia, for an amazing historic perspective of the Twins. Interesting to see how few independent blogs are left in the Twins' blogosphere these days, but content consolidation and aggregation by the big paying sites (like ESPN and SI) and more open access to bloggers by teams (which cuts down on independent and open views) has becoming more and more mainstream. Will be interesting to see how this will end up. And this is totally reflected on my blogroll on the left side here. Interesting to see how few of those Twins blogs are now still standing alone. On the non-independent blog side, Harold Sinker has returned with vengeance over at Section 219, the new kid on the block, Mike Berardino (who is a delight to read, btw,) has totally revived the Twins Now blog on the St Paul paper, and as always the super-bloggers and the dozens of contributors at the Twins Daily provide tons of current and original Twins' content and stimulating discussion. RF Oswaldo Arcia (age 21) is the youngest player to start on opening day for the Rochester Red Wings in the Twins' era of the team. He celebrated the occasion with a long 2-run Home Run at dead Center Field in the top of 6th inning at Buffalo. This article on Miguel Sano by David Dorsey the veteran baseball writer of the Fort Myers News-Press, is an absolute must read for any Twins' fan. Food for thought: Tomorrow (4/5) is the 60th birthday of the man, Andy Macphail, who build the twice World Champion Twins teams more than 21 seasons ago. He was born in the same year as the current Twins General Manager, Terry Ryan who was promoted to the post in 1994. Former Twins' opening day starter, Carl Pavano, is facing further life-threatening complications due to his spleen injury. Wishing him the best and a quick recovery. The Twins' product of the week is the brand new this season MLB Minnesota Twins 2013 Batting Practice 59Fifty Baseball Cap, 734, White/Redhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=biowriters&l=as2&o=1&a=B00B7UJDK0. Arguably, it is much better looking than the other new this year Batting Practice Cap, in Red, White & Navyhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=biowriters&l=as2&o=1&a=B00B7UJEFE that reminds me of Montreal Expos, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8619893258_d0a3a0c5f9_z.jpg

Last season, I started a Random Twins Thoughts series that included a post a week every Tuesday. I was told that people actually liked those and missed them when I stopped, so I will continue them this season. I decided to change it up a bit this season and do it a bit more randomly. This first one is after the Twins competed their first series of their young 2013 season, hosting the Detroit Tigers who are the favorite to win (at least) the AL Central in the 2013 season. I will try to coincide these thought posts with the end of Twins' series. As previously, the content will be on the major league team, as well as the minor league team; I will also include additional factoid and links to Twins' stuff, like last season. Here is the first installment: After Wednesday's win, it was the first time the Twins were at .500 after the 2010 season. Good to see them winning the opening series 2-1 at home over the AL Central favorites. If the Twins win at home, play close to .500 ball on the road, and win over the other AL Central teams, great things will happen. I think that a lot of fans were surprised by the strong showings of Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. From what I saw and reported last week from Fort Myers, I was hopeful for both Correia and Pelfrey. This is in contrast to the 3 pitchers who opened the 2012 season in Baltimore: Carl Pavano allowed 4 runs (all earned) in 7 IP, Fransisco Liriano 6 (5 Earned) in 4 IP; Anthony Swarzak did a good job with 1 run in 5 IP. Great to see the comeback by the Twins' bottom of the order last night against the Tigers' committee of closers. Trevor Plouffe, Jamey Carroll, Wilkin Ramirez, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar were the participants and it is clear that this comeback might had not happened if the Twins gave Drew Butera a position on the 2013 25-man roster. Major kudos to Joe Vavra who aggressively (unlike his predecessors Steve Liddle and Scott Ullger) waved in Dozier for the winning run. It great (and about time) to see the Twins play aggressively and fight hard on the diamond. Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks have both been struggling at the plate (and they both got their first base hits of the season in the Twins' 8th inning), but the season is still young. The Twins do not have many other Centerfielder options, but I can see Ramirez taking some PAs from Parmelee, especially against LHPs The Twins sold only 19,000 season tickets for 2013, down 3,000 from 2012, which was down 2,000 from 2011. Not winning does not sell tickets, but the revenue loss due to loss of additional non-season ticket attendance is higher than that due to the loss of season tickets. Still the Twins have sold as many season tickets as the total average home attendance of three other MLB teams in 2012: The Astros (19,848), Indians (19,797) and the Rays (19,255). The latter are the poster boys of the exception of the aforementioned rule that winning sells tickets. A team prime for moving to a more baseball-friendly place. Today is the opening day for all full season Twins' minor league affiliates (International League, AAA, Rochester Red Wings, Eastern League, AA, New Britain Rock Cats, Florida State League, high A, Fort Myers Miracle and the newest affiliate, Midwest League, A, Cedar Rapids Kernels.) Speaking of the Kernels, if you are interested in following them, you should bookmark the Knuckleballs Blog, where Jim Crikket (a total Kernels' insider) will follow them from Cedar Rapids with great original content like this. And even if you don't care about the Twins' minor league affiliates (shame on you), you should bookmark them, because the guys and gals of Knuckleballs offer some of the greatest independent blogging coverage of the Twins (including some great game time chats as well as awesome weekly podcasts.) Since we are talking about independent Twins' blogs, make sure you follow The Twins' Fan from Afar, for New Britain Rock Cats coverage, k-bro's baseball blog for a kinder gentler side of Twins coverage and her trademark paper dolls, Peanuts from Heaven, for great lighter coverage of Twins and Twins Trivia, for an amazing historic perspective of the Twins. Interesting to see how few independent blogs are left in the Twins' blogosphere these days, but content consolidation and aggregation by the big paying sites (like ESPN and SI) and more open access to bloggers by teams (which cuts down on independent and open views) has becoming more and more mainstream. Will be interesting to see how this will end up. And this is totally reflected on my blogroll on the left side here. Interesting to see how few of those Twins blogs are now still standing alone. On the non-independent blog side, Harold Sinker has returned with vengeance over at Section 219, the new kid on the block, Mike Berardino (who is a delight to read, btw,) has totally revived the Twins Now blog on the St Paul paper, and as always the super-bloggers and the dozens of contributors at the Twins Daily provide tons of current and original Twins' content and stimulating discussion. RF Oswaldo Arcia (age 21) is the youngest player to start on opening day for the Rochester Red Wings in the Twins' era of the team. He celebrated the occasion with a long 2-run Home Run at dead Center Field in the top of 6th inning at Buffalo. This article on Miguel Sano by David Dorsey the veteran baseball writer of the Fort Myers News-Press, is an absolute must read for any Twins' fan. Food for thought: Tomorrow (4/5) is the 60th birthday of the man, Andy Macphail, who build the twice World Champion Twins teams more than 21 seasons ago. He was born in the same year as the current Twins General Manager, Terry Ryan who was promoted to the post in 1994. Former Twins' opening day starter, Carl Pavano, is facing further life-threatening complications due to his spleen injury. Wishing him the best and a quick recovery. The Twins' product of the week is the brand new this season MLB Minnesota Twins 2013 Batting Practice 59Fifty Baseball Cap, 734, White/Redhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=biowriters&l=as2&o=1&a=B00B7UJDK0. Arguably, it is much better looking than the other new this year Batting Practice Cap, in Red, White & Navyhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=biowriters&l=as2&o=1&a=B00B7UJEFE that reminds me of Montreal Expos, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8619893258_d0a3a0c5f9_z.jpg

Great stuff! Keep them coming

Originally published in full with 56 pictures at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- Like all good things that have an expiration date, the Twins' 2013 Spring Training had to end today. Tomorrow the games mean everything as the Twins are opening the season in a frigid Target Field against the Detroit Tigers. As in the last few years, I attended Spring Training (you can find all my 2013 Spring Training posts here) and took several pictures. This is pretty much my photo diary without comments (but in one picture). It is in chronological order. Feel free to ask any questions about these pictures here and I will answer them. Small (but important) print: All images are: Copyright 2013, The Tenth Inning Stretch. Feel free to use them, for non-profit situations, with a. appropriate attribution of the copyright as mentioned above and b. a link to this post. If you are a commercial entity, or want to use them for profit situations, feel free to drop me a line if you would like to use any of this. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8107/8605999059_c15bcc778d_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8401/8605998907_1f48426305_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8397/8607103482_6c0a089239_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8266/8605998721_c1a6f91196_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607103336_d44c2a4bd1_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8242/8607103244_c7e68c493d_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8100/8607103182_95cf98abd3_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8527/8607108388_df41999203_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607108312_32801af160_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8531/8606003221_445b32b78a_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8531/8607108100_90567f3ef0_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8255/8606003077_380a168cc3_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8117/8607107928_d8316e6409_z.jpg (13) http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8521/8607107838_9d06b32954_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8240/8606002825_bf60de1d3b_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8258/8607107670_9e98673311_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8117/8606002669_0f98c36378_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8241/8606002579_4af5ef0db8_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8527/8607107374_5455b5bdc7_z.jpg ----- For space and bandwidth considerations, only part of the photo diary is re-posted here. Feel free to continue at The Tenth Inning Stretch for the rest of the photos, including photos of the Twins' top prospects and Mauer's HR against Toronto. 56 photos in all.

Originally published in full with 56 pictures at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- Like all good things that have an expiration date, the Twins' 2013 Spring Training had to end today. Tomorrow the games mean everything as the Twins are opening the season in a frigid Target Field against the Detroit Tigers. As in the last few years, I attended Spring Training (you can find all my 2013 Spring Training posts here) and took several pictures. This is pretty much my photo diary without comments (but in one picture). It is in chronological order. Feel free to ask any questions about these pictures here and I will answer them. Small (but important) print: All images are: Copyright 2013, The Tenth Inning Stretch. Feel free to use them, for non-profit situations, with a. appropriate attribution of the copyright as mentioned above and b. a link to this post. If you are a commercial entity, or want to use them for profit situations, feel free to drop me a line if you would like to use any of this. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8107/8605999059_c15bcc778d_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8401/8605998907_1f48426305_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8397/8607103482_6c0a089239_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8266/8605998721_c1a6f91196_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607103336_d44c2a4bd1_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8242/8607103244_c7e68c493d_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8100/8607103182_95cf98abd3_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8527/8607108388_df41999203_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607108312_32801af160_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8531/8606003221_445b32b78a_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8531/8607108100_90567f3ef0_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8255/8606003077_380a168cc3_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8117/8607107928_d8316e6409_z.jpg (13) http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8521/8607107838_9d06b32954_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8240/8606002825_bf60de1d3b_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8258/8607107670_9e98673311_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8117/8606002669_0f98c36378_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8241/8606002579_4af5ef0db8_z.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8527/8607107374_5455b5bdc7_z.jpg ----- For space and bandwidth considerations, only part of the photo diary is re-posted here. Feel free to continue at The Tenth Inning Stretch for the rest of the photos, including photos of the Twins' top prospects and Mauer's HR against Toronto. 56 photos in all.

Good question. And I apologize because I wrote this whole mess up early this morning in an airport lounge down in FL waiting for my flight up North... I got the percentages (the ones in those bullets) and I did simple math: (percentage 2013 rotation in 2012 / percentage 2012 rotation in 2012) X 2012 rotation wins (i.e. 41). And then added to 66. There are a few assumptions that actually work the other way: This assumes that the 2013 rotation will pitch as few innings as those guys in 2012 rotation pitched and the rest will be pitched by Diamond/Hendriks/Deduno/Walters/De Vries/Duensing/Swarzak (as in 2012 - which will not happen) So I think that it is a pretty good approximation. Kid of a teaser for the next installment: If the Twins keep Duensing and Swarzak on the pen exclusively this season, they will gain about 4 pitcher WAR (big deal) and this was not reflected in this analysis...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I think that it is pretty safe to say that nobody expects the Minnesota Twins to be close to contending in 2013. As a matter of fact, a lot of fans and experts would find the new Accuscore predictions that were released today and show the 2013 Twins with a predicted record of 72-90, optimistic. I usually do not try to predict the way the Twins will finish with an analysis. The last time I did it was in the aftermath of the Santana trade and before the 2008 season, when the sky was supposedly falling (you can find that analysis in parts: Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.) My quite unorthodox calculations predicted the team to have an 89-73 record, while everyone was predicting a sub .500 record. That season, as in this season, the major breaking point is Starting Pitching. When I was asked before Spring Training by Cardinal70.com in their playing pepper series, my prediction (gut feeling) was that the Twins will compile an 86-76 record and will be competitive in 2013. Additionally, I recently noted the good energy that I saw this team have in Fort Myers, which makes me optimistic for 2013. Add to this, this excellent analysis by Phil Macky at ESPN 1500 based on individual projected performances that project the Twins to win 80 games in 2013, and it was about time to look at the possibilities formally. I looked at it in 2 different ways and this post is part one, looking at the possibilities of the new starting rotation. The second way will be a WAR- and RAR-based analysis that will be presented some time this weekend or so, otherwise this post will be a monster. This analysis is pretty unorthodox but pretty close to what I did before the 2008 season. I am looking at the differences of the Twins' rotation in 2013 vs the Twins' rotation in 2012 (Starting pitching is the driver of the Twins' performance folks... They led the AL Central in position player WAR by a lot, 25% ahead of the second team, in 2012.) I am looking at the following two measures for each starting pitcher in 2012: Bill James' Game Score (which is what I used to tabulate my Spring Training Dashboards, and use the same convensions for above average, below average and average as there; explanation is here) Earned runs a pitcher allowed in each game Then I tabulate the number games that each pitcher had game scores better than, worse than or average; and the number of games that each pitcher allowed 2 runs or less, 3 to 4 runs and 5 runs or more. (Note: The Twins scored about 4.3 runs a game, so =< 2 runs is high probability or win and 3-4 runs good probability for a win.) The 2012 Twins' starters used for the calculations are Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano and Marquis For the 2013 Twins' startes I used the 2012 numbers for Correia and Worley and the 2011 for Pelfrey and Harden I assume that the rest of the rotation in 2013 (Diamond, De Vries, Deduno etc) will perform as in 2012. Here are the results by pitcher: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8237/8598075986_d52167df36.jpg It is obvious that the 2013 rotation had many better games in 2012 and would have kept the Twins competitive in most of their games (4 runs or less) than the 2012 rotation. But how much? The 2013 rotation had above average game scores 48.3% of the time vs 23% for the 2012 rotation The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 42.7% of games vs 26% for the 2012 rotation The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 82.2% of games vs 61.2% for the 2012 rotation What does this mean in wins for the 2013 Twins? In 2012 the Twins starting pitchers won 41 and lost 72 games Extrapolating based on above average game scores the 2013 rotation will win an additional 23 games for a total of 89 wins based on less than 2 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 26 games for a total of 92 wins based on less than 4 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 15 games for a total of 81 wins These 3 average to 87 wins, giving the 2013 Twins a projected 87-79 record. So here you have it. These Twins can compete in 2013. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8233/8598008516_d1b239f737_c.jpg Next: WAR and RAR-based analysis

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I think that it is pretty safe to say that nobody expects the Minnesota Twins to be close to contending in 2013. As a matter of fact, a lot of fans and experts would find the new Accuscore predictions that were released today and show the 2013 Twins with a predicted record of 72-90, optimistic. I usually do not try to predict the way the Twins will finish with an analysis. The last time I did it was in the aftermath of the Santana trade and before the 2008 season, when the sky was supposedly falling (you can find that analysis in parts: Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.) My quite unorthodox calculations predicted the team to have an 89-73 record, while everyone was predicting a sub .500 record. That season, as in this season, the major breaking point is Starting Pitching. When I was asked before Spring Training by Cardinal70.com in their playing pepper series, my prediction (gut feeling) was that the Twins will compile an 86-76 record and will be competitive in 2013. Additionally, I recently noted the good energy that I saw this team have in Fort Myers, which makes me optimistic for 2013. Add to this, this excellent analysis by Phil Macky at ESPN 1500 based on individual projected performances that project the Twins to win 80 games in 2013, and it was about time to look at the possibilities formally. I looked at it in 2 different ways and this post is part one, looking at the possibilities of the new starting rotation. The second way will be a WAR- and RAR-based analysis that will be presented some time this weekend or so, otherwise this post will be a monster. This analysis is pretty unorthodox but pretty close to what I did before the 2008 season. I am looking at the differences of the Twins' rotation in 2013 vs the Twins' rotation in 2012 (Starting pitching is the driver of the Twins' performance folks... They led the AL Central in position player WAR by a lot, 25% ahead of the second team, in 2012.) I am looking at the following two measures for each starting pitcher in 2012: Bill James' Game Score (which is what I used to tabulate my Spring Training Dashboards, and use the same convensions for above average, below average and average as there; explanation is here) Earned runs a pitcher allowed in each game Then I tabulate the number games that each pitcher had game scores better than, worse than or average; and the number of games that each pitcher allowed 2 runs or less, 3 to 4 runs and 5 runs or more. (Note: The Twins scored about 4.3 runs a game, so =< 2 runs is high probability or win and 3-4 runs good probability for a win.) The 2012 Twins' starters used for the calculations are Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano and Marquis For the 2013 Twins' startes I used the 2012 numbers for Correia and Worley and the 2011 for Pelfrey and Harden I assume that the rest of the rotation in 2013 (Diamond, De Vries, Deduno etc) will perform as in 2012. Here are the results by pitcher: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8237/8598075986_d52167df36.jpg It is obvious that the 2013 rotation had many better games in 2012 and would have kept the Twins competitive in most of their games (4 runs or less) than the 2012 rotation. But how much? The 2013 rotation had above average game scores 48.3% of the time vs 23% for the 2012 rotation The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 42.7% of games vs 26% for the 2012 rotation The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 82.2% of games vs 61.2% for the 2012 rotation What does this mean in wins for the 2013 Twins? In 2012 the Twins starting pitchers won 41 and lost 72 games Extrapolating based on above average game scores the 2013 rotation will win an additional 23 games for a total of 89 wins based on less than 2 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 26 games for a total of 92 wins based on less than 4 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 15 games for a total of 81 wins These 3 average to 87 wins, giving the 2013 Twins a projected 87-79 record. So here you have it. These Twins can compete in 2013. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8233/8598008516_d1b239f737_c.jpg Next: WAR and RAR-based analysis

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I arrived North a tad too late from Fort Myers last night, so I did not quite had time to compile my last Spring Training report, so here it goes: Mainly a drills day over at the Minor League fields yesterday with no games or scrimmages schedules. Interesting to see Ray Olmedo, who was cut earlier in the morning participate in drills with the position players who will likely stay at Fort Myers for extended spring training and get assigned to the Rookie leagues. Most of them are young Latin American players and I suspect that Ray was helping with the translation. Back at Hammond Stadium Mike Pelfrey pitched a very good game (the only earned run should had been unearned because Morneau should have been charged with an error when misplayed what would have been the third out of the inning.) When I look at the return of someone from injury I look at 2 things: Velocity of fastball and command of the breaking ball. And Pelfrey had them both. His fastball hit 94 mph (at Hammond so subtract a couple) and he had excellent command of his high 70s curve. He changed speeds effectively, mixed and matched pitches well and provided a good glimpse of why he was considered a top of the rotation prospect for a long time. Good to see him back and I am certain that he will help the Twins this season. The only roster battle left is one for two pen spots among three relievers (who may all make it if Liam Hendriks' injured hand proves to be worse than it seems) who severely underperformed and underwhelmed this spring training and all have 40 man roster spots: Alex Burnett, Casey Fien and Trevor Robertson. Robertson (who admittedly has been unlucky this Spring because the ball seemed to bounce the wrong way every time he pitched) had a very sub-par outing yesterday. The main problems were that his fastball velocity was 85-88, with the fast Hammond Stadium radar, that made it flat and hittable and he could not command his breaking ball. As I mentioned above regarding Pelfrey, those 2 things are red flags for me as far as potential injury is concerned. On the other hand, Robertson yesterday said the he felt alright. We shall see. Regardless, with Anthony Swarzak and Tim Wood returning from injuries in a couple weeks, the two relievers who will make the squad will be under the microscope. Ecstatic to see Wilkin Ramirez making the club. He has been the most consistent Twins' player with the bat this Spring and his defense was occasionally impressive (including a diving catch today against Baltimore.) He will provide a RH bat with some pop off the bench and potentially a platoon partner for Chris Parmelee at RF. Ramirez is not on the 40-man roster so a transaction needs to take place to open a spot for him. This could be a trade involving Drew Butera, Jamey Carroll (who is practically unnecessary now with the emergence of Eduardo Escobar) or the removal from the 40-man roster of the reliever who loses the battle for the last pen spot or Caleb Thielbar or BJ Hermsen. One very hopeful observation for the coming season (and I actually asked others who agreed with me so it is not just me) : The overall energy of the team this Spring seems to be much better that it was last Spring. The mood seems to be much lighter. Players were pretty loose around the batting cages when waiting for others to bat or when were catching the ball at the OF during batting practice, or at the dugout. Even Gardenhire who last Spring was fairly grouchy was cracking jokes and was engaged in conversations with fans. This makes me very hopeful for this set of Twins as far as this season goes. Just a feeling I cannot describe, but it is pretty much there. Four games are left now, including the last 3 with the Red Sox in Fort Myers. Byron Buxton's guest star appearance will be the talk of the day tomorrow, while the next order of business will be the appointing of the opening day starter. As far as I am concerned I think that it will be either Vance Worley or Kevin Correia depending on their next appearance (or Worley's next appearance) so we will know the earliest tomorrow. Another Spring comes to the end and another season is coming to be. Let's hope it is better than the last one and the Twins sweep Detroit in the first series to make a strong statement as far as the division is concerned.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I arrived North a tad too late from Fort Myers last night, so I did not quite had time to compile my last Spring Training report, so here it goes: Mainly a drills day over at the Minor League fields yesterday with no games or scrimmages schedules. Interesting to see Ray Olmedo, who was cut earlier in the morning participate in drills with the position players who will likely stay at Fort Myers for extended spring training and get assigned to the Rookie leagues. Most of them are young Latin American players and I suspect that Ray was helping with the translation. Back at Hammond Stadium Mike Pelfrey pitched a very good game (the only earned run should had been unearned because Morneau should have been charged with an error when misplayed what would have been the third out of the inning.) When I look at the return of someone from injury I look at 2 things: Velocity of fastball and command of the breaking ball. And Pelfrey had them both. His fastball hit 94 mph (at Hammond so subtract a couple) and he had excellent command of his high 70s curve. He changed speeds effectively, mixed and matched pitches well and provided a good glimpse of why he was considered a top of the rotation prospect for a long time. Good to see him back and I am certain that he will help the Twins this season. The only roster battle left is one for two pen spots among three relievers (who may all make it if Liam Hendriks' injured hand proves to be worse than it seems) who severely underperformed and underwhelmed this spring training and all have 40 man roster spots: Alex Burnett, Casey Fien and Trevor Robertson. Robertson (who admittedly has been unlucky this Spring because the ball seemed to bounce the wrong way every time he pitched) had a very sub-par outing yesterday. The main problems were that his fastball velocity was 85-88, with the fast Hammond Stadium radar, that made it flat and hittable and he could not command his breaking ball. As I mentioned above regarding Pelfrey, those 2 things are red flags for me as far as potential injury is concerned. On the other hand, Robertson yesterday said the he felt alright. We shall see. Regardless, with Anthony Swarzak and Tim Wood returning from injuries in a couple weeks, the two relievers who will make the squad will be under the microscope. Ecstatic to see Wilkin Ramirez making the club. He has been the most consistent Twins' player with the bat this Spring and his defense was occasionally impressive (including a diving catch today against Baltimore.) He will provide a RH bat with some pop off the bench and potentially a platoon partner for Chris Parmelee at RF. Ramirez is not on the 40-man roster so a transaction needs to take place to open a spot for him. This could be a trade involving Drew Butera, Jamey Carroll (who is practically unnecessary now with the emergence of Eduardo Escobar) or the removal from the 40-man roster of the reliever who loses the battle for the last pen spot or Caleb Thielbar or BJ Hermsen. One very hopeful observation for the coming season (and I actually asked others who agreed with me so it is not just me) : The overall energy of the team this Spring seems to be much better that it was last Spring. The mood seems to be much lighter. Players were pretty loose around the batting cages when waiting for others to bat or when were catching the ball at the OF during batting practice, or at the dugout. Even Gardenhire who last Spring was fairly grouchy was cracking jokes and was engaged in conversations with fans. This makes me very hopeful for this set of Twins as far as this season goes. Just a feeling I cannot describe, but it is pretty much there. Four games are left now, including the last 3 with the Red Sox in Fort Myers. Byron Buxton's guest star appearance will be the talk of the day tomorrow, while the next order of business will be the appointing of the opening day starter. As far as I am concerned I think that it will be either Vance Worley or Kevin Correia depending on their next appearance (or Worley's next appearance) so we will know the earliest tomorrow. Another Spring comes to the end and another season is coming to be. Let's hope it is better than the last one and the Twins sweep Detroit in the first series to make a strong statement as far as the division is concerned.

yes /kinda and yes. He only had one ball in play and that resulted in a 3-1 (1B to P) ground out by Mejia (on a 0-2 count) Also he had only one called ball. Everything else was either a called strike, a swinging strike and that one ball in play. And most Ks were of the 3 pitch variety.

I left at about the sixth inning when A+ was leading 1-0. Double by Sano to deep center (lost in the wind by the centerfielder), a ground out and a single by Lance Ray I think. All those off Luke Bard. Then Andrew Ferreira came in for A, (Twins' 22nd round pick in 2012 from Hahvahd) and was effectively wild to shut down the bats. So not sure who won But they will score a bunch or runs

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- Today the Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays 14-5 at Hammond Stadium with about a week remaining at Spring Training; meanwhile there were AAA vs AA and A+ vs A scrimmages at fields number 2 and 3 on the minor league side. Here are my thoughts and observations of the day A lot of great performances today, including Joe Mauer's 6 RBI day that included a HR at dead center and Aaron Hick's 4 for 4 day, but the performance of the day happened at field number three and was witnessed by about 50 people, including Twins' General Manager Terry Ryan. During the high A vs. A matchup that included stars in the making like Miguel Sano, Byron Braxton, Travis Harrison, Jorge Polanco, Kennys Vargas etc, a little known 10th round draft pick stole the show. DJ Baxendale, who was the Twins' 10th round pick from the University of Arkansas last summer and has been stretched to be a starter this season retired all 9 A players he faced, striking out 8. Only second baseman Aderlin Mejia was retired by a 3-1 ground out. Not a small fit, because the Cedar Rapids' lineup started with Buxton, Polanco and Harrison. Baxendale's stuff was absolutely filthy and his control was perfect (he had only one called ball the whole game). Two sinker with a lot of motion, a sharp breaking ball and a change up that had a life of its own. I will be very surprised if he does not move fast in the organization. This was one of the single most dominating pitching performances I have ever seen at any level of play. It was as if a major leaguer was pitching against Rookie league kids. Definitely someone to follow this season in Fort Myers (even though I suspect that he might end the season in New Britain.) Speaking of, this Fort Myers squad will score some runs and will be a serious contender in the Florida State League. Sandwiched between Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas, at the clean up spot today was Mike Gonzales, the Twins' 9th Round pick in 2008. For the ones not familiar with Gonzales, he has had his up and downs (mostly downs) mainly resulting from lack of discipline and hard time controlling his weight. Last season he played with the Miracle and was mediocre. This would be his make or break season and looks like he will repeat the high A tour to start the season. The 25 year old is in probably the best shape of his career and actually is dwarfing Vargas, if that is possible. I expect a break through season from Gonzales this year. Alex Meyer pitched for the AA team against the AAA and the little I got to see him (the A vs high A matchup was the center piece of the day) he looked pretty good with a great fastball and impressive command. Luke Bard who pitched for the Cedar Rapids team also pitched pretty well, but he was eclipsed by Baxendale. At the Stadium it was an overcast and very windy day and lots of home runs resulted. PJ Walters got the node for the Twins and he just did not have it today. Plus he ran out of gas pretty quickly. I don't think that the threw anything harder than 80 mph in his last inning. His fastball was clocked at 88-91 in the first innings and this was about 2-3 mph less in actuality because of the Fort Myers radar. He is not ready to start the season in the majors at least as a starter. Just not there yet. Brian Duensing was solid other than the home runs and Jared Burton was impressive. I am not sure that Josh Roenicke will make the team; I feel that it is a battle of 2 spots between him, Tim Wood and Jim Pressly and the other two have been better, even though Roenicke had a good appearance today. Since he can pitch multiple innings, maybe will slide in the Swarzak role while he is on the DL. His fastball touched 94 mph and his breaking ball was effective today. I have the feeling that Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier are pretty much enshrined as the starting middle infielders and from now until the opening day it is a matter of them to get to know each other. Second day in a row that started in their respective positions. Chris Parmelee had another lackadaisical performance. I don't know if he feels that there is no way that he will not make the team, but the level of effort is just not what it should be at this point. Hasty plate appearances and swinging at bad pitches is not the way to make people feel that you deserve a position among the best 13 position players of the Twins. More cuts will be coming soon and I think that Ray Olmedo, Brandon Boggs, Jeff Clement, Dan Rohlfing, PJ Walters, Tyler Robertson and maybe one of Casey Fien and Alex Burnett will be it. One week until opening day and the slate should clear pretty quickly. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8528/8587802906_d2a7df64ed_b.jpg

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- Today the Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays 14-5 at Hammond Stadium with about a week remaining at Spring Training; meanwhile there were AAA vs AA and A+ vs A scrimmages at fields number 2 and 3 on the minor league side. Here are my thoughts and observations of the day A lot of great performances today, including Joe Mauer's 6 RBI day that included a HR at dead center and Aaron Hick's 4 for 4 day, but the performance of the day happened at field number three and was witnessed by about 50 people, including Twins' General Manager Terry Ryan. During the high A vs. A matchup that included stars in the making like Miguel Sano, Byron Braxton, Travis Harrison, Jorge Polanco, Kennys Vargas etc, a little known 10th round draft pick stole the show. DJ Baxendale, who was the Twins' 10th round pick from the University of Arkansas last summer and has been stretched to be a starter this season retired all 9 A players he faced, striking out 8. Only second baseman Aderlin Mejia was retired by a 3-1 ground out. Not a small fit, because the Cedar Rapids' lineup started with Buxton, Polanco and Harrison. Baxendale's stuff was absolutely filthy and his control was perfect (he had only one called ball the whole game). Two sinker with a lot of motion, a sharp breaking ball and a change up that had a life of its own. I will be very surprised if he does not move fast in the organization. This was one of the single most dominating pitching performances I have ever seen at any level of play. It was as if a major leaguer was pitching against Rookie league kids. Definitely someone to follow this season in Fort Myers (even though I suspect that he might end the season in New Britain.) Speaking of, this Fort Myers squad will score some runs and will be a serious contender in the Florida State League. Sandwiched between Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas, at the clean up spot today was Mike Gonzales, the Twins' 9th Round pick in 2008. For the ones not familiar with Gonzales, he has had his up and downs (mostly downs) mainly resulting from lack of discipline and hard time controlling his weight. Last season he played with the Miracle and was mediocre. This would be his make or break season and looks like he will repeat the high A tour to start the season. The 25 year old is in probably the best shape of his career and actually is dwarfing Vargas, if that is possible. I expect a break through season from Gonzales this year. Alex Meyer pitched for the AA team against the AAA and the little I got to see him (the A vs high A matchup was the center piece of the day) he looked pretty good with a great fastball and impressive command. Luke Bard who pitched for the Cedar Rapids team also pitched pretty well, but he was eclipsed by Baxendale. At the Stadium it was an overcast and very windy day and lots of home runs resulted. PJ Walters got the node for the Twins and he just did not have it today. Plus he ran out of gas pretty quickly. I don't think that the threw anything harder than 80 mph in his last inning. His fastball was clocked at 88-91 in the first innings and this was about 2-3 mph less in actuality because of the Fort Myers radar. He is not ready to start the season in the majors at least as a starter. Just not there yet. Brian Duensing was solid other than the home runs and Jared Burton was impressive. I am not sure that Josh Roenicke will make the team; I feel that it is a battle of 2 spots between him, Tim Wood and Jim Pressly and the other two have been better, even though Roenicke had a good appearance today. Since he can pitch multiple innings, maybe will slide in the Swarzak role while he is on the DL. His fastball touched 94 mph and his breaking ball was effective today. I have the feeling that Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier are pretty much enshrined as the starting middle infielders and from now until the opening day it is a matter of them to get to know each other. Second day in a row that started in their respective positions. Chris Parmelee had another lackadaisical performance. I don't know if he feels that there is no way that he will not make the team, but the level of effort is just not what it should be at this point. Hasty plate appearances and swinging at bad pitches is not the way to make people feel that you deserve a position among the best 13 position players of the Twins. More cuts will be coming soon and I think that Ray Olmedo, Brandon Boggs, Jeff Clement, Dan Rohlfing, PJ Walters, Tyler Robertson and maybe one of Casey Fien and Alex Burnett will be it. One week until opening day and the slate should clear pretty quickly. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8528/8587802906_d2a7df64ed_b.jpg