Thrylos

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- Today the Minnesota Twins unofficially had their first game of the Spring Training, which was an intrasquad contest. Here are some of my thoughts from what happened in this game: Pitchers seem to be well ahead of hitters: Phil Hughes pitched 2 scoreless innings throwing 21 out of 27 strikes, striking out 4 (including Buxton and Sano) and his FB was 91/92 mph Kevin Correia also pitched 2 run-free innings with 14/26 strikes, a K and a BB. Kyle Gibson hit 94 mph on the gun and also pitched 2 scoreless innings (18/25 strikes) [*]Phil Hughes said that he will not throw the slider (a pitch he primarily threw in 2013 and a lot, 21.3% of his pitches were sliders; but with not much success, resulting in -0.8 runs per 100 pitches) and will replace it with a slow curve (9% of his pitches last season with about average success) and a cutter, a pitch he did not throw consistently since 2011. The cutter was very good in 2009 and 2010 but not as good in 2011 and he abandoned it. A curve is a pitcher that he will throw primarily against LHBs and the cutter (and slider) against RHBs. [*]I am not convinced that Kevin Correia will be with the Twins for a long time. I can see Gibson pushing him to the trading block during Spring Training [*]Eduardo Escobar played 3B (replacing Sano) which is his worst fielding position, instead of Shortstop (his best fielding position; he won the Gold Glove for the Venezuela Winter League this off-season). I feel that Escobar can replace Florimon as the Twins' starting shortstop, if given a chance and it is frustrating to see Gardenhire playing him out of position. [*]The big boys did really well defensively Miquel Sano had several good plays at third base including several strong throws, which is good news for the shape of his elbow Kennys Vargas maybe made the defensive play of the game with a diving stop and throw to the pitcher (Worley) who was covering first. Both of these guys' defense is better than certain people might want you to believe [*]I hope that Byron Buxton's performance today (0-3, 3K, 1BB late in the game) will land on earth the fans who think he should be the Twins' starting Centerfielder in 2014. He has a great future, but patience is needed. [*]Josmil Pinto played today, which is good news meaning that his back is better, but Rob Antony said on the radio that the Twins think that he came to Spring Training "a bit heavy", which is bad news, because it sounds like the Twins' brass is preparing the ground for a demotion and going with Suzuki as the starter, a non-optimal situation. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8124/8607106528_5592ff77b8_z.jpg

I have lots of concerns about pitch framing as a metric as well: - it has to be normalized per umpire (it is not.) And we now that a 5'7" 300lbs umpire's strike zone is different than a 6'7" 200 lbs umpire's. - it has to be normalized per pitcher (it is not). I bet if Greg Maddux was throwing exclusively to Ryan Doumit, Doumit would have been the best pitch framing catcher in the game... Until they find a way to normalize their data in at least those 2 dimensions, I am not buying it...

Nothing new. This has been SOP for the Twins. I was hopeful that with the 2 good FA signings and the Pelfrey re-signing this practice would stop this season, but..

Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch ------- Multiple reports today, including a formal announcement by the Twins' twitter, indicate that the Twins selected LHP Brooks Raley off waivers from the Cubs' organization. Who is Brooks Raley? Brooks Raley was drafted by the Cubs in the 6th Round of the 2009 draft from Texas A&M, 8 picks after the Twins selected C Chris Herrmann from Miami, and there is a good possibility that the pair will form part of the Rochester Redwings battery in 2014. Raley has had September call ups to the majors both of the last seasons, starting 5 games with the Cubs in 2012 (1-2, 24.3 IP, 8.14 ERA, 6.88 FIP, 11 BB, 16 K, 1.81 WHIP) and relieving in 9 games in 2013 (14 IP, 5.14 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 8 BB, 14 K, 1.46 WHIP). His career minor league numbers are 107 G, 102 GS, 555.3 IP, 3.92 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.13 K/BB; which are not stellar. Raley has four pitches: A high 80s fastball, a high 70s slider, a high 70s change up (his best pitch) and a low 70s curveball. He is not a control artist but he flashes good command. At first place, the presence of lefties Kris Johnson, Sean Gilmartin, Pat Dean & Logan Darnell in the organization and potentially slated for a spot in the Rochester rotation, makes this acquisition somewhat of a head scratcher. A quick look at his MLB career splits shows that LHB hit a collective .194/.293/.306 off Raley, which indicates that there might be a future as a LHRP, for someone who makes every MLB lefty he faces look like Drew Butera at the plate. This makes this acquisition look like it might make sense in the big schema of things... After the Gilmartin acquisition, I indicated that Gilmartin would have probably been in the high 20s on my off-season top 40 prospect list, if he was a Twin when I made it. Raley would have not made the cut. As a 40-man roster member he will be in the big club Spring Training starting this weekend. http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7294/12489136195_dccec28b5c_z.jpg

I should probably add the Punta Gorda info (Allegiant flies there from my home airport too,) but it is so infrequent and Cedar Rapids or Des Moines are the closest airports to the Twin Cities for that route. Looks like they discontinued the Burlington flights too. Plattsburg, NY is the closest airport they flight to PGD now. The full list is here. Fort Myers traffic is not heavy, other than the jams right before and right after game time, which are expected. It compares favorably to most places, at least in my experience

That would have been at Tinker Field in Orlando. You just got to see that neighborhood these days...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ------ Less than a month for Pitchers and Catchers to report to Fort Myers so it is about time for you to make your arrangements to go to Fort Myers and it is about time for the third annual Fort Myers Guides, which will be updates from last years' guides. Also, as a retrospect after I return, I will do a "bargain guide to Spring Training in Fort Myers" to really try to give hints on how to get there, stay there, eat there and attend Twins' games and spend as much as possible. Will make this an annual feature as well. But there will be budget minded features in every one of the main guides. Last season there were three Spring Training Guides: Last year's logistics' guide is here, baseball guide here, and the food guide here. This season there will be three guides and will be different than last year's based on my experiences from the last season. This is the first guide: The Spring Training Logistics Guide, where the area is described and the best and least expensive ways of getting to the Twins' Spring Training home. Knowing what I know now last season, I could have saved at least a couple hundred dollars in airfare, at least that much in a hotel and about that much in a car rental, money better spent watching the Twins and buying Twins' (and Miracle) gear. As a bonus, I will list the official Twins' hotel, which is the place where a lot of Twins' people stay and a great place to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff. The second guide will be all about baseball. What is going on at the Training Complex, tips and tricks about watching the games at Hammond Stadium (based on my fresh experience from last year and the changes in the ballpark) and other ballparks you might want to visit. This with be the Spring Training Baseball Guide. The third guide will be a Food Guide to Fort Myers and will be a fusion of the last 2 years guides, with additions. These guides are mainly from the Twins' perspective but useful for Red Sox' (and soon Nationals') fans How to get to Fort Myers: Unless you want to have a non-rental car with you (a good choice if you are a player or will be there for a month or so, or you live close to Fort Myers) flying is probably the best choice. There is a local airport (Southeast Florida International, code: RSW) served by a variety of airlines, but there are a total of about 75 flights a day into and out from there. Alternative airports are the larger Tampa International (TPA) and Miami International (MIA), about 2 and 2.5 hrs drive respectively as is the Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) is slightly over an hour drive from Fort Myers and slightly larger airport than the Southwest Florida International at Fort Myers. Fort Lauderdale (FLL) is also an option, and a potentially fairly attractive one if your home airport has airlines like Frontier, Spirit and Allegient and you are willing to fly them, because they have inexpensive and relatively frequent flights there. Flying into Fort Myers is probably the most expensive option in the list but you do not have to drive far. Also, the TSA checkpoints in the return trip are a mess. Budget an extra hour to go through. My favorite option: Orlando. Orlando International (MCO) is about 3 hrs away from Fort Myers, but it offers the benefit of having the lowest airfare and lowest car rental prices in Florida, in combination to more that 60 mainstream carrier flights daily. Plus, as a bonus, if you have a family, you can spend a few days there with the kids, which will help them palate more 8+ hrs of baseball-related stuff that you would do once at Fort Myers. As far as airfare prices go and where to find the best ones, go to the ITA Matrix software portal, chose the "show a calendar of lowest fares" and play with it. This is the tool that travel agents are using. Once you find a flight, go online to the airline or an online travel agency and reserve it. My fares in and out of MCO have been in the $150-200 range from the North East, but fares change depending on departing city. Another Orlando alternative is Sanford International Airport (SFB) that is preferred by several low cost carriers, such as Allegiant. You might also want to look at neighboring airports to your home town within driving distance for potential lower fares. As far as rental cars go (and you do need one since the public transportation in Fort Myers is non-existent,) the best value in Florida is Dollar. And here is a trick: Go to the Dollar web site and register to be an express member for free. This way you will have the car waiting in a predetermined spot and you by-pass the counter. Next, make your reservation, by selecting view all car types and picking the least expensive option. Once you make your reservation, check it often and early and "modify" it to see if there are any lower prices posted. Dollar is notorious of dropping their car prices, especially close to the reservation dates. I usually rent cars at about $12-16 a day. But you have to check and change those prices a lot. Refuse the automatic toll machine ($8ish/day) and the GPS ($13ish a day) and deal with the insurance as you normally do (i.e. if you refuse because you are covered by your own car, refuse it.) If you want to drive down there, the fastest was to get there is via I-75 that goes through the town. From most points of the Midwest or Northwest, the best way is to catch I-75 around the Metro Atlanta area. From South and South West, I-10 hits I-75 in North Florida about an hour east of Jacksonville. From the East Coast, the best bet would be I-95 all the way to Daytona Beach, then I-4 through Orlando and catching I-75 at Tampa. If you live at the Twin Cities area, Minneapolis is about 1700 miles away from Fort Myers, which means about 3 days of 8 hours driving each, each way. Enjoy If you are planning to fly to Orlando and drive south, do not go through Tampa and take I-75. Take I-4 to I-17 south, through Winter Heaven (the abandoned now former Spring Training home of the Red Sox) to Arcadia, to Port Charlotte (Spring Training Home of the Rays). It is a great ride through orange orchards (and road side stands to purchase them) and small farming towns. Will give you a totally different perspective of Florida. This is a map of South & Central Florida, to let you see where Fort Myers is situated in Florida (all maps and satellite images used in this post are screen shots from Bing maps) : http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7210/6870615689_9c49c11ca4_z.jpg The Metro Area and the City: Fort Myers (and, btw, it is not Ft. Myers) is the smallest of 3 cities in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral Metropolitan area. It has about 62,000 people, whereas the Metro has about 650,000 people most of them living in Cape Coral, a city planned and started in the late 50s as a huge retirement community. Interestingly enough the planners wanted to make every property close to water, so they created and extensive system of Canals. Cape Coral has more miles of navigable waterways than any city in the world, including Venice (Italy, not FL) and Amsterdam. About 400 miles of canals. Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island and Pine Island are popular beach front communities with a lot of beach-related tourism. Here is a photo of the Cape Coral- Fort Myers metro: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7041/6870615619_08f2faa40c_z.jpg An important note, especially to people from northern climates: Average temperatures in March are 80 for high and 60 for low, so make sure that you pack sunscreen, hats, glasses, shorts, t-shirts and a swimsuit, if you are so inclined. And if you get sunburns, you will get a sunburn there, so please plan accordingly The city of Fort Myers itself is very easily navigated. Here is a map of the City with the Twins' Spring Training Headquarters noted with an orange Marker: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7188/6870615475_684c7baa2a_z.jpg You can click here for a larger picture in a new window. Really important note if you have not been in that part of the world before, and you like to do outdoor activities like running: Be diligent around bodies of water, like ponds, canals, lakes etc. Those floating things that look like branches are not branches, they are alligators. And there is a ton of them. Where to Stay: The Fort Myers Airport is about 6 miles due west from Hammonds Stadium and the Spring Training Complex. Daniels Parkway (that becomes Cypress Lake Dr in the City) will take you from the Airport to the town and the Twins' complex. If you are on a budget and looking for a hotel, the ones on Daniels Parkway and that area west of I-75 offer good bargains and are fairly close to the Twins' Spring Training Complex. Another area for reasonable accommodations is the S. Cleveland Avenue North of Page Field. Mostly everything can be found within a large triangle defined by S. Cleveland Ave to the West, Colonial Blvd to the North and the Ben C. Pratt Pkwy going Northeast to Southwest. The Twins' Spring training complex is on the South part of Ben C. Pratt Pkwy, just South of Daniels Pkwy. Traffic, other than when the games are over, is not an issue at Fort Myers. If you want to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff, the Twins' official/unofficial hotel in the Fort Myers' area is the Hilton Garden Inn Fort Myers (not the one by the airport, but the one "in town"). Alternatively you can stay at Naples (offers more things to do at night) or Port Charlotte (offers less expensive rooms and it is the Rays' Spring Training Home). Both are about half an hour easy drive away. The best bargains for Hotels (unless you are a frequent guest and can use points for free rooms) are either Hotwire or Hotels.com, but the establishments are sometimes name-less so it can be a gamble. On the other hand, if you stay pretty close to the ballpark and away from the downtown area, there are not any seedy places. Budget pick for a hotel: Knight's Inn Arcadia, at around $50 a night. About 45 minutes away from Hammond Stadium. In town, Crestwood Suites is around $70 a night (stay away from hotels cheaper than that price point at Fort Myers). The Twins' Spring Training Complex: Here is a satellite image of the Lee County Sports Complex: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7062/6870615187_617fab61b1_b.jpg More about the complex, how and when to get there and all the things about the Twins' Spring Training home in the next guide.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Today the Minnesota Twins have finalized their agreement with South Korea's Hanwha Eagles, selling LHP Andrew Albers' contract. It is a good move for Albers who will be compensated close to $1 million, while he would have had a hard time cracking the Twins' and potentially even the Red Wings' rotations, after the acquisitions of Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey at the major league level and Kris Johnson and Sean Gilmartin at the minor league level. Albers was the recipient of the 2013 Jim Rantz award as the Minnesota Twins' minor league pitcher of the year. Since its inception in 2003, only one pitcher who won the award (Kyle Gibson) is still with the Twins and, arguably, bad luck followed every single recipient and in most cases within one year from winning this award? Is there a curse of Jim Rantz? I am not sure, but here is a list of the recipients and their respective misfortunes. The players who had something happen within a year are listed in bold: 2013: Andrew Albers - Contract Sold to South Korean's Hanwha Eagles 2014 2012: BJ Hermsen - Removed off the 40 man roster 2013 2011: Liam Hendriks - Designated for Assignement 2013 2010: Kyle Gibson - Tommy John Surgery 2011 2009: David Bromberg - Released 2012 2008: Anthony Slama - released 2013 2007: Kevin Slowey - Traded 2011 2006: Matt Garza - Traded 2007 2005: Fransisco Liriano - Tommy John Surgery 2006 2004: Scott Baker - Tommy John Surgery 2012 2003: Jesse Crain - Shoulder Surgery 2007, 2013 Thus, aspiring not to win this award might be something that Twins' prospects should consider. http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3754/12106373166_58e172a901_o.jpg

- FIP and the relative are supposed to be ballpark neutral. xPE is normalized for BABIP, which, allegedly will be the one place that slap hits will show. - Not sure that the dome affects Ks and BBs - Those PE/xPE ranges are for modern era (2000+) pitchers. I have not yet adjusted it to the oldies. And, yes, Cy Young winners are not the best pitchers around. xPE/PE, like FIP/xFIP and SIERA, does not always translate to W-L and ERA, which are the things the voters are looking for. - fWAR (which is FIP and not ERA based) I bet is on Nolasco's favor, but WAR is good to look at cumulative performance and career comparisons (like in HOF situations). Rate measurements, like the above are better suited for performance evaluations/predictions.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Last month, I examined in depth the re-signing of Mike Pelfrey to a two year contact by the Minnesota Twins, suggesting that he, indeed, can be a steal for the Twins for many reasons. Today, I am looking at the biggest free agent spending from the Minnesota Twins ever, the signing of Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million contact with an option of a 5th year, just before Thanksgiving. In the near future, I will look at the signing of Phil Hughes, to complete the profiles of the 2 new, and one not so new, Twins' starting pitchers. Rickey Nolasco by far is the most experienced pitcher in the Twins rotation and the Twins have him under contract for his age 31 through 34 seasons with the option covering his age 35 season. How good is Ricky Nolasco? The general sentiment, both from the main press and blogs covering the Twins has been that Nolasco is a mid-rotation type of starter, who can eat innings, and it is fairly durable (in a Carl Pavano way) but by no means he is a top of the rotation starter. Let's dig a little deeper now that the dust has settled and the holiday period has passed. Nolasco has been a darling in this space since about 5 years before the Twins signed him, because in his early years of pitching for the Marlins (look at this post from 11/2008, for example) he has been among elite company in pitching rankings. His numbers have been up and down the past few seasons after the first seasons with the Marlins (which earn him 3 opening day starts for them,) thus it make sense to look a bit deeper. And the way I will be looking is utilizing PE, xPE, FIP, xFIP and SIERA (please read this writeup for a primer about these measurements, what they do and the reasoning for their use). I am also doing a couple more things. I compare him to a particular Twins' pitcher, and using color coding, I am examining how both of their annual performances fit in a good rotation, using this key: http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5495/10909709863_0950d3e269_o.jpg Here are the numbers: http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3705/11928318545_5bb82c903c_o.jpg Nolasco's are on top, and Brad Radke's are on the bottom. Because of the inability to calculate xFIP and SIERA in the early year's of Radke's career, I have added FIP as well. However, as I show here, xFIP (and SIERA) correlate better with xPE than FIP, so the xPE comparisons are close to xFIP and SIERA comparisons. Based on this, Nolasco has a season (age 26) where he performed like an Ace, 2 seasons (ages 25 and 27) where he performed as a number one or two, two seasons that he performed as number two or three (age 28 and age 30), two seasons that he performed as a number three or four (age 23 and 29) and one replacement level season (age 24.) Clearly, his performance overall has been better than Brad Radke's performance overall. A couple more comparison charts: Here is Nolasco's and Radke's FIP compared annually since season age 22 (just for Radke, Nolasco was not in the bigs then) : http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7307/11929174766_6ca53d3583_o.jpg For the same age, other than age 24, Nolasco has had a very similar, but lower FIP than Radke in every season. and in the ages 26 and 30 seasons (that was 2013 for Nolasco), Nolasco's FIP was significantly lower than Radke's. And here are their xPE comparisons (higher is better) over the same span: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7443/11929174916_5a3bd7aa75_o.jpg The xPE paints a bit of a more dramatic picture: other than the ages 24 and 28 (this is a difference with FIP) season, Nolasco's pitching was much better than Radke's at the same ages. However, there is a potential tale of caution, not obvious with the FIP chart: Looking at both xPE and FIP, Radke's peak was his age 28-32 seasons with age 31 being his absolute best, before the shoulder issues kicked. Nolasco's FIP is low enough in his age 30 season, but his xPE from his age 28 season one, has not quite reached his xPE peak of his career best (so far) at age 26. The jump in his age 30 season is encouraging and hopefully indicates that the best is still to come and Nolasco is indeed still in his peak years, but the drop is something to keep in mind. So what do the Twins have in Nolasco? A pitcher who has pitcher close to, but better overall, than Brad Radke in a year by year comparison and who has been top of the rotation pitcher. And based on the regard that the Twins' fanbase has for Brad Radke, anyone who follows the Twins should be thrilled with the Ricky Nolasco signing.

Couple of interesting facts against those 2 points: a. The Fans vote (the Deadspin vote) with the 75% cut off, would have gotten who the writers got in plus Biggio and Piazza. Not Mattingly, not Gagne. I'd argue that there are a lot of people who wonder why Biggio and Piazza were not elected today b. We all know the BBWAA. There is a little group called the BBA (Baseball Bloggers Alliance; full disclosure: I am part of it) of independent baseball bloggers who every year they vote for the HOF. Here is this year's vote (with a bit of info about previous votes.) Guess what? They voted in exactly who the writers voted in. That 75% cut-off is very powerful and it is a good check and balance...

League average does not make much sense for this. It is an individual metric. It measures how much better one does in high leverage situations compared to all situations. Zero means that someone does the same in high leverage situation as in all other situations. So zero is the "normal" baseline, i.e. the norm for comparison purposes.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- "Clutch" is a word that has been used to describe the players who go above and beyond the norm and perform highly in difficult situations in close games: The guy who comes into the game with 2 outs and the bases loaded, down three in the bottom of the ninth and hits a grand slam off a closer who never blew a save. The pitcher who comes in with bases loaded and no outs, up one on the bottom of the ninth and strikes out the side to save the game. Whether or not there are players out there who are "clutch" and consistently outperform themselves in those type of situations has been a vast subject of debate. Here is a good summary of a few historic studies and here is a list of lots of links on the subject, if you feel like reading more. About 5 years ago, David Appelman devised a measurement called, well, "Clutch" that tries to describe clutch hitting and pitching. Basically what it does, is it looks at the difference of someone's performance (based on Win Probability Added) in High Leverage situations only, versus his overall performance. Players with positive Clutch outperform their overall performance in those situations and players with negative Clutch underperform. This does not mean that a player with a higher Clutch is a "better" player than one with lower Clutch. If someone hits .220 with the bases loaded and .200 overall, is not a better player than someone who hits .320 with the bases loaded and .340 overall, despite the Clutch numbers. Fangraphs picked the stat now and I sorted the Twins hitters, relief pitchers and starting pitchers based on Clutch. This is an exercise just for fun. I don't think that it means that much (see example above), but it is interesting and it potentially be an additional tool for player evaluation, but not a stand alone tool. Situational and High Leverage performance definitely might tell something about relievers as a group, but we are not about to jump into any conclusions here. Just a demo Here are the 2013 Twins' hitters ranked by Clutch (60 PA min) : http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2866/11820134366_5e90eacd0e_o.jpg Here are the 2013 Twins' relief pitchers ranked by Clutch (10 IP min): http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5525/11819784464_a6e035295d_o.jpg Here are the 2013 Twins' starting pitchers ranked by Clutch (35 IP min): http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3713/11819635523_ff2a441b27_o.jpg Pitchers in both roles are listed on both tables for that role only. A couple of observations: The Twins definitely do not use or value the metric, since about half of the players with positive Clutch numbers are gone I am not surprised to see Dozier and Duensing lead the hitter and the reliever groups respectively. It is my recollection that they really excelled in pressure situations Worley leading the starter group may be a surprise, until someone considers that, in order to pitch in a high leverage situation, a starter needs to get himself into trouble to make that situation high leverage. Thus, Clutch, is not very useful at all for starters (other than looking at fun results like the above...)

---- Last season, after his World Baseball Classic performance, which ended with a [URL="http://m.startribune.com/sports/?id=199709321"]pulled groin[/URL] that led him to miss a chunk of spring training and the first 44 games of the season, and his consistent performance in June and July that had him enter August with a 7-4 record and a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts, many people in the Twins Cities called [B]Samuel Deduno[/B] an "ace". This included several well-respected mainstream media. (For sample of relative stories, look [URL="http://www.mprnews.org/story/2013/07/29/twins-pitcher-deduno-as-ace"]here[/URL], [URL="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/217259751.html"]here[/URL], [URL="http://www.tout.com/m/jp4mhd?ref=twjdvvqm"]here[/URL], [URL="http://fpbaseballoutsider.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-five-seasons-of-sam-deduno.html"]here [/URL]and [URL="http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/09/07/samuel-deduno-minnesota-twins-ace-has-great-potential/"]here[/URL].) Not sure whether calling Deduno an ace, which of course he never was, made him one. Being the only pitcher who gives a bad team a semi-consistent chance of staying close in a game, does not an "ace" make. Perhaps this mis-labeling caused a hubris-derived curse, but he was never the same afterward. He suffered injuries that led him to have double (labrum and rotator cuff) shoulder surgery this fall, making his trip north this spring with the Twins pretty unlikely. When (then interim) General Manager [B]Terry Ryan[/B] returned to that role with the Twins after the 2011 ninety nine loss season he identified several areas that needed to change in order for the team to improve. In addition of the firing of [B]Jerry White[/B] and [B]Rick Stelmaszek[/B], the retirement of [B]Steve Liddle,[/B] the "no scholarships" approach with certain players like[B] Tsuyosi Nishioka[/B] and the reassignment of the other remaining coaches, Ryan fired the Twins' head athletic trainer [B]Rick McWane[/B], establishing medical treatment of the players as one of the areas for improvement and implicitly part of the cause of the Twins demise in 2011. How well has that latter change worked in 2013? Let's look at a chronicle of Samuel Deduno's shoulder injury, diagnosis and treatment, beginning from last August, and let readers reach their own conclusions: [B]August 7:[/B] Deduno allows four runs in 5.7 innings in a loss to the Royals, giving up twelve hits. [B]August 13:[/B] He allows five runs in six innings in loss to Indians; five hits and three bases on balls. [B]August 18:[/B] Allows five runs and eight hits in five innings against the White Sox. After the game Deduno [URL="http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_23889736/minnesota-twins-pitcher-samuel-deduno-having-shoulder-problems"]speaks to the press[/URL] indicating he has shoulder problems. He said "It started behind the [B]shoulder [/B]a couple weeks ago [[I]August 7[/I]] , but I could handle that". "Now it's in the front. I felt it a few days ago [I][August 13[/I]]. Today, I didn't feel good. In the bullpen and during the game, I didn't feel strong." [[I]In other words, Deduno made three starts with shoulder issues. It is unclear whether he communicated those issues to the training staff[/I]] The Twins' trainers prescribe and Deduno undergoes [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_muscle_stimulation"]Electronic Stimulation Therapy[/URL] (a muscle therapy). [B]August 19:[/B] Consistent with the treatment prescribed, the Twins' training staff [URL="https://twitter.com/Brandon_Warne/status/369515859674288128"]diagnose the condition as [B]biceps tendinitis[/B][/URL]. [B]August 21[/B]: Deduno throws bullpen and [URL="https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/370275096075595777"]says he feels fine[/URL]. [B]August 22:[/B] Starts against Cleveland. Allows one run in six innings in a win at Cleveland. Three hits, four bases on balls. [B]August 29: [/B]Starts against the Royals. Allows three runs in three innings. Out with [URL="https://twitter.com/LaVelleNeal/status/373161735240183808"][B]shoulder [/B]soreness.[/URL] [[I]In other words, Deduno made two additional starts with apparently unresolved shoulder issues[/I]] [B]August 30:[/B] Deduno [URL="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9616368/minnesota-twins-place-samuel-deduno-wilkin-ramirez-dl"]placed on of the 15-day DL[/URL] [B]September 8[/B]: Deduno transferred to the 60-day DL [B]September 9: [/B]The Twins'[URL="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/222909141.html"] GM talks to the press about Deduno[/URL]. Saying that he might need [B]shoulder[/B] surgery but is "not as bad as it sounds" and could rehab instead. Terry Ryan indicates Deduno is "battling [B]inflammation[/B]" and says he is "sure that it is [B]scar-tissue [/B]related" [B]September 9 (later in the day)[/B]: The Twins [URL="http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24100800/minnesota-twins-samuel-deduno-confident-heading-into-surgery"]announce [/URL]that Deduno has "[B]issues [/B]in his [B]labrum [/B]and [B]rotator cuff[/B]" and might need "just a[B] clean up[/B]" [B]September 13[/B]: The Twins [URL="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Notebook_Whos_hot_whos_not_so_far_in_September091313"]indicate [/URL]that Deduno has "[B]fraying [/B]in the [B]shoulder[/B]", recovery timetable is set at two months and should be ready for the onset of spring training. [B]September 20:[/B] [URL="http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24143696/minnesota-twins-samuel-dedunos-shoulder-surgery-successful-agent"]Announcement [/URL]that Deduno has successful arthroscopic s[B]houlder s[/B]urgery (by his agent), reparing "slight [B]fraying[/B]" and "slight [B]tear[/B]". [B]December 9:[/B] [URL="https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/410189031121895424"]Twins indicate[/URL] that Deduno has started to playing catch and his rehab progresses (in Fort Myers) as planned and he is still on schedule for spring training. Meanwhile, Terry Ryan signed three free agent pitchers who, in addition to Correia, [URL="http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2013/12/by-numbers-body-count-of-twins-pitching.html"]are all penciled in ahead of Deduno for the 2014 rotation[/URL]. After the season Terry Ryan publicly said that "Deduno has pretty much earned a spot on the 2014 rotation", but his actions show he is not counting on Deduno. Whether he will be ready for spring training or not, it is now no clearer, since there has been pretty much silence on Deduno since September 20. It has to be noted Deduno has been very fragile. Here is his lost days and injury history in his professional career: Missed 30 days of 2013 with [B]Right Shoulder [/B]injury Missed part of 2013 (ST and 44 days) with [B]Groin [/B]injury Missed 45 days of 2012 with [B]Right Elbow[/B] injury Missed 18 days of 2011 with [B]Groin [/B]injury Missed 111 days of 2010 with[B] Right Elbow [/B]injury (inflammation) Missed 22 days of 2009 with [B]Hip Flexor [/B]injury Missed all of 2008 with [B]Tommy John Surgery[/B] recovery Missed 45 days of 2005 with [B]Right Shoulder [/B]injury The only healthy seasons in Deduno's career were 2006 and 2007. It looks like his right shoulder, groin, hip and right elbow (unfortunately even after Tommy John surgery) have been his problem areas. The elbow and shoulder issues are especially worrisome... I hope Deduno is healthy, because he pitches in an intriguing way and could help the Twins, but if his history is any guide of his future, he is not to be counted on to take the ball every fifth day. [I]Originally published at [URL="http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-chronicle-of-shoulder-injuries-of.html"]The Tenth Inning Stretch[/URL][/I] [CENTER] [URL="http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Samuel+Deduno+Cleveland+Indians+v+Minnesota+Xce3dNpDXAQl.jpg"][IMG]http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Samuel+Deduno+Cleveland+Indians+v+Minnesota+Xce3dNpDXAQl.jpg[/IMG][/URL] [/CENTER] View full article

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Last season, after his World Baseball Classic performance (which ended with a pulled groin that made him miss a chunk of Spring Training and 44 games with the Twins) and his consistent performance in June and July that had him enter August with a 7-4 record and a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts, made many people in the Twins Cities call Samuel Deduno an"Ace". This included several well-respected mainstream media. (For sample of relative stories, look here, here, here, here and here.) Not sure whether calling Deduno an "Ace" (which, of course, he never was; being the only pitcher who gives a bad team a semi-consistent change of staying close in a game, an "Ace" does not make) caused a hubris-derived curse, but he was never the same afterwards, because of an injury that caused him to have double (labrum and rotator cuff) shoulder surgery the Fall, making his trip up North breaking camp with the Twins pretty dubious. When (then interim) General Manager Terry Ryan, returned to that role with the Twins after the 2011 ninety nine loss season he identified several places that needed change in order for the team to improve. In addition of the firing of Jerry White and Rick Stelmaszek, the retirement of Steve Liddle and the "no scholarships" approach about certain players like Tsuyosi Nishioka, and the reassignment of the other remaining coaches, Ryan fired the Twins' head athletic trainer Rick McWane, establishing medical treatment of the players as one of the areas for improvement and part of the cause of the Twins demise in 2011. How well have those changes worked in 2013? Let's look at the chronicle of Samuel Deduno's shoulder injury, diagnosis and treatment, with stories from last August on as they happened, and let the readers reach their own conclusions: August 7: Deduno allows 4 runs in 5.7 innings in loss to Royals giving up 12 hits. August 13: He allows 5 runs in 6 innings in loss to Indians; 5 hits and 3 bases on balls. August 18: Allows 5 runs in 5 innings. Allows 8 hits. After the game Deduno speaks to the press indicating he has shoulder problems. He said that "It started behind the shoulder a couple weeks ago [August 7] , but I could handle that". "Now it's in the front. I felt it a few days ago [August 13]. Today, I didn't feel good. In the bullpen and during the game, I didn't feel strong." [In other words, Deduno makes 3 starts with shoulder issues. It is unclear whether he communicated those issues to the training staff] The Twins' trainers prescribe and Deduno undergoes Electronic Stimulation Therapy (a muscle therapy). August 19: Consistent with the treatment prescribed, the Twins' training staff diagnose the condition as bicep tendinitis August 21: Deduno throws bullpen and says he feels fine August 22: Starts against Cleveland. Allows one run in 6 innings in a win at Cleveland. 3 hits, 4 bases on balls August 29: Starts against the Royals. Allows 3 runs in 3 innings against the Royals. Out with shoulder soreness. [In other words, Deduno makes 2 additional starts with apparently unresolved shoulder issues] August 30: Deduno placed on of the 15-day DL September 8: Deduno transferred to the 60-day DL September 9: The Twins' GM talks to the press about Deduno. Saying that he might need shoulder surgery but is "not as bad as it sounds" and could rehab instead. Terry Ryan indicates that Deduno is "battling inflammation" and says that he is "sure that it is scar-tissue related" September 9 (later in the day): The Twins announce that Deduno has "issues in his labrum and rotator cuff" and might need "just a clean up" September 13: The Twins indicate that Deduno has "Fraying in the shoulder" recovery timetable is set to two months, should be ready on the onset of Spring Training September 20: Announcement that Deduno has successful arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery (by his agent) reparing "slight fraying" and "slight tear". December 9: Twins indicate that Deduno has started to playing catch and his rehab progresses (in Fort Myers) as planned and he is still on schedule for Spring Training. Meanwhile, Terry Ryan signs three free agent pitchers who, in addition to Correia, are all penciled in ahead of Deduno for the 2014 rotation. Terry Ryan after the season publicly said that "Deduno has pretty much earned a spot on the 2014 rotation", but his actions show that he does not count on Deduno. Whether he will be ready for Spring Training or not, it will be seen, since there has been pretty much silence on Deduno since September 20. It has to be noted that Deduno has been very fragile. Here is his injury and lost days history in his professional career: Missed 30 days of 2013 with Right Shoulder injury Missed part of 2013 (ST and 44 days) with Groin injury Missed 45 days of 2012 with Right Elbow injury Missed 18 days of 2011 with Groin injury Missed 111 days of 2010 with Right Elbow injury (inflammation) Missed 22 days of 2009 with Hip Flexor injury Missed all of 2008 with Tommy John Surgery recovery Missed 45 days of 2005 with Right Shoulder injury The only healthy seasons in Deduno's career were 2006 and 2007. It looks like his Right Shoulder, Groin and Hip, and Right Elbow (and unfortunately even after Tommy John Surgery) have been his problem areas. The elbow and shoulder issues are especially worrisome... I hope that Deduno is healthy, because he pitches in an intriguing way and could help the Twins, but if his history is any guide of the future, he is not to be counted on to have the ball every fifth day. http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Samuel+Deduno+Cleveland+Indians+v+Minnesota+Xce3dNpDXAQl.jpg

That all depends, really. I would argue that Tonkin is probably a better pitcher than Roenicke and Pressly who were one of the original squad. Heck, Tyler Robertson made the team out of ST... The pen has a way to balance out. September in non-competing teams might be a different story, but it just balances out.

Almost certainly, this will not be the 40-man roster of infielders come late March. According to multiple reports the Twins were in on Chavez before he signed with the Dbacks and are looking to upgrade the infield positions in the majors. I will be surprised if the Twins do not add another infielder and subtract Colabello from the list. Re: intermediate/long term SS. Polanco is much better player than Santana and he is close to be ready. Santana's ceiling is utility (he is worse than Casilla was a minor league at every aspect of the game) while Polanco is the real deal with excellent OBP skills even as a teenager. I will not be surprised if he gets up to AA this season and makes the Twins team in 2015.

Actually the correct measurement for that is IP/appearance because if a pen has used 10 different pitchers to pitch 400 innings would result to more tired pitchers than if used 15 different pitchers to pitch 420 innings, correct? As far as IP/Appearance goes, if you round down to one decimal (more decimals does not make sense), you will see that pretty much the whole league is at the same place: Astros 1.2 Pirates 1.2 Athletics 1.1 Blue Jays 1.1 Mariners 1.1 Marlins 1.1 Nationals 1.1 Padres 1.1 Rockies 1.1 Royals 1.1 Twins 1.1 Yankees 1.1 Angels 1.0 Braves 1.0 Brewers 1.0 Cardinals 1.0 Cubs 1.0 Diamondbacks 1.0 Dodgers 1.0 Giants 1.0 Indians 1.0 Mets 1.0 Philies 1.0 Rangers 1.0 Rays 1.0 Reds 1.0 Tigers 1.0 White Sox 1.0 I think that the difference of 0.2 innings in spread (less than a batter faced) is insignificant. There goes another myth about "tired pens..."

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- The major priority of the Minnesota Twins' General Manager, Terry Ryan, has been to re-build a rotation that has been at the bottom of the major leagues in pretty much every statistical category in 2014. There is a general agreement that the rotation was pretty much "a mess" in 2013 and needed fixing. There is also the general impression that the Twins' pen was one of the strengths of the team and it is better left alone. However, this impression is false because in 2013 the Twins' pen ranked: 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as ERA goes 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as FIP goes 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as SIERA goes 8th out of 30 MLB teams as far as WHIP goes 19th out of 30 MLB teams as far as K% goes In other words, the Twins' pen, which compared to the Twins' rotation seemed great, when compared to the rest of the major league pens is proven to be average at best. Busted myth number one: The Twins' pen was not great in 2013 and, while it might have been a bright point in 2013 compared to the rest of the team, it does not cut the mustard compared to the rest of league. There is a lot of room for improvement and I suspect that Terry Ryan will address before Spring Training, since that will go a long way for the Twins to be competitive in 2014. After the recent additions of new and returning starting pitchers there have been arguments that the Twins have too many starting pitchers and there is a logjam or pitchers on the Twins' roster. I thought that it might be a good time to take a breath and look at what the Twins have on their 40-man roster as far as pitching goes, and see whether this argument is true or not. Here is the Twins' 40 man roster (alphabetically) broken down in groups (players in bold are out of options): Group A: Starting pitchers with no options signed to sizeable contracts the last 2 seasons. Kevin Correia (RHSP) Phil Hughes (RHSP) Rick Nolasco (RHSP) Mike Pelfrey (RHSP) Group B: Relief pitchers with no options signed to sizeable contracts the last 2 seasons or offered arbitration. Jared Burton (RHRP) Brian Duensing (LHSP/RP) Glen Perkins (LHRP) Anthony Swarzak (RHSP/RP) Group C: Starting pitchers with no options with small contacts who played in the majors for more than 3 seasons. Sam Deduno (RHSP) Scott Diamond (LHSP) Vance Worley (RHSP) Group D: Starting and relief pitchers with options with small contacts who played in the majors for at least one season. Andrew Albers (LHSP) Casey Fien (RHRP) Kyle Gibson (RHSP) Kris Johnson (LHSP) Ryan Pressly (RHRP) Caleb Thielbar (LHRP) Michael Tonkin (RHRP) Group E: Starting and relief pitchers with options with small contacts who never played in the majors. Logan Darnell (LHSP) Edgar Ibarra (LHRP) Trevor May (RHSP) Broken down this way, the perceived logjam of Twins' staring pitchers becomes pretty clear: The Twins usually have a 12 man pitching staff. They currently have 4 starters and 4 relievers (groups A and who are pretty much guaranteed a job. This opens 4 more positions, one in the rotation and 3 in the pen. If you assume that the Twins value all pitchers in Group C who are out of options, they have the space to find them all a major league job, as well as allow another pitcher, likely from Group D or potentially outside the organization, to gain a rotation or bullpen position. The rest of the players will provide depth in AAA and be there in case of emergency or potentially be offered in trades to fill additional needs, like position players. Busted myth number two: There is no pitching logjam on the Twins' roster. In other words, the Twins do have a lot of pitching depth in their 40-man roster, but they are not in a logjam situation where they cannot accommodate all their pitchers without options on their 25-man roster. And this assumes that Samuel Deduno who is recuperating from double (labrum and rotation cuff) shoulder surgery is available to start the season, which is an extremely optimistic approach right now. While it is too early to name names to complete the rotation and the pen, because changes will likely happen before spring training, this early clearly the Twins are not in any sort of a pitching logjam and also have plenty of options. http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7058/6927661912_db27f32dcc_z.jpg

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- It has been reported that the Minnesota Twins have Signed 30 year old C Kurt Suzuki to an 1 year $2.75 million contract plus incentives. He will provide catching depth, allowing the Twins to pace the use of Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann at the catcher position in a way that it is most appropriate for them. He would also act as insurance, in case one or both of the rookies need additional work at AAA. The Twins would need to create a spot on the 40-man roster for Suzuki, which likely means that 28 year old Eric Fryer, who was slated for this role now filled by Suzuki, will be taken off the 40-man roster and designated for assignement. The 5'11", 200 lbs, Suzuki, who is from Hawaii, was drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 2nd round of the 2004 MLB June Amateur Draft from California State University Fullerton. He flew threw the Athletics system at a pace of a level a year starting as a 20 year old in short season A Vancouver and ended up starting 2007 in AAA Sacramento. Baseball America had him ranked as the 89th best prospect in Baseball before that season. Mid-season 2007 he made his debut with the Athletics where he stayed until the 2012 trading deadline when he was traded to the Washington Nationals. He returned to the Athletics, traded back by the Nationals this trading deadline, to support thens in their post-season run in 2013. His career slash line is .253/.309/.375 (.685 OPS, 86 OPS+). The right hand hitter seem to be consistently declining with the bat since his age 25, 2010 season when he hit .274/.313/.421 (.734 OPS, 93 OPS+) . Last season between the Nationals and the Athletics he hit .232/.290/.337 (.627 OPS, 73 OPS+) in 94 games (316 PAs), which is what the Twins should probably be expecting from him (in fewer PAs) in 2014 and his $2.75 million one year contract reflects this. He is a right hand hitter but hits both lefties and righties equally. Suzuki does not walk a lot, but he does not strike out a lot either (about 8% BB rate and 10% K rate). He makes contact, but does not have much power. He is a good bunter and can move runners on; also suited for hit and run plays. Suzuki's defense behind the plate, his ability to block balls in the dirt, to make hard plays and to stall runners has been praised. So has his clubhouse presence. So has his game calling by managers and his pitchers. He has been extremely healthy spending only 24 days in the 15-day DL in his career for an intercostal muscle strain in 2010. Even if he might not be able to contribute with the bat as a starter, he would be an invaluable mentor for both Pinto and Herrmann. All in all a great addition for the Twins. http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7425/11466426665_b7d3a26469_z.jpg

This is kinda of a slippery slope, because you are mixing ethnicity (e.g. Hispanic) with race (e.g. black/African American, white, Asian, native etc). African Americans/blacks can be Hispanic or not. Dominican republic is part of the Americas so people with Dominican origin are also considered Americans. That said, I suspect that you are asking why there are so few non-hispanic blacks in the Twins' system. I think that your count is off. I counted at least 6 who played with Cedar Rapids last season: Josh Burris Byron Buxton Niko Goodrum Tyler Jones Adam Walker J.D. Williams might even be more. Getting inner city kids in the US (African American or not) to play baseball has not been very successful, thus programs like RBI. And it is not the Twins, it is the whole league.