108 Double Stitches

My guess its a message -- don't get too comfortable. And Dozier' level of production isn't enough in the long run. I was kind of comformtablely numb with Dozier's play. Low expectations and bigger problems elsewhere on the roster. Even if you can't expect much skill improvement in 2 weeks, maybe an attitude or wake up call can be made. A little reminder that come spring training, ss will at the very least be an open competition.0

Yes. First you get some return in the trade. And freeing the time of the staff of one underachieving (although very talented) pitcher may yield benefits to the other auditioning SP canidates. So possible some addition by subtractoin on that front.

I am not saying that it is nonsense. The model is really accurate when the assumptions are true (you can say that about most models). But if you want hope AND you want to believe in the cool standing model, look to whether the assumptions are still valid for the team (the Twins). Either case, <1% or 5%, the Twins chances are really, really poor. I don't see a debate on that issue. Just copied your post because I aggreed with you more or less. Anyway, when Las Vegas is willing to let you bet a percentage, its often best to pay attention. They tend to make money off of that.

Just to point out, the cool standings rely significantly on the run differential (and the conversion of run differntial into expected W-L). The KC royals are just a couple of wins above the twins, but it has them at 5%. And the Detroit Tigers have a higher chance to make it then the Cleveland Indians even though they are 3 games behind them in the standings. Whats holding the Twins % so low is that the -60 run differential is much worse than their current W-L record. So if you view the current run differential as somewhat of an aberation, then it follows the Twins are closer to KC royals 5% chance of making the playoffs. And there is a couple of reasons to buy into that, foremost is a couple of the culprits for the poor run differential are no longer on the Twins. Just saying, the Twins could win a series of 1-run games and the Cool Standings formula won't give them too much credit on their probability calculations.

1. Happy to hear a more positive response. Thanks for clearing the air and being the bigger man. I guess you are the Torii Hunter and I am the Justin Monreau in this clubhouse brawl (is that reference too obscure?) 2. There is plenty of blame to go to me too. My messages were sloppy and I poorly articulated my points, making them easy to misread. I found it really difficult to respond because I felt anything I would write would just amplify things. To be clear, I like Plouffe and his 15 HRs. But I hate it when hitters are hitting just solo HRs, and I do want to see Plouffe's next 15 HRs to have more of the 2-HR and 3-HR variety mixed in. And the rest of what I wrote was all half-baked expression. For the record, I hate being called a White Sox fan. But I have many friends who are White Sox fans. We just agree to hate each others teams. But I do appreciate you clowning around. I will include an old bit of clowning around I was a part of from years ago, that involved the White Sox, Jeff Manship and Seth Stohs. And I have proudly shared this link with many a White Sox fan. "Faustball" question to Sethspeaks and Seth included it in his Q and A with Jeff Manship. The archive is listed here (http://sethspeaks.net/070308.htm) The excerpt is listed below: The Devil is tired of Faustian deals (trade in souls) and wants to try a Faust-Ball deal. And he finds you. The devil wants this: when you retire you have to become a White Sox fan for life. In exchange, he offers, either: (A) You can make it the majors before the end of 2008 and remain in the majors for at least the next 10 years --OR-- ( You can make it to the majors before the end of 2009 and the devil guarantees you make at least 3 MLB all-star teams So my question: Is being a White Sox fan really all that bad? - Rick Jeff Manship: Ha ha with options like that I don’t think it would be too hard to be a White Sox fan. I would probably have to choose B, but A is a very compelling choice.

Appology accepted. Way too many assumptions in your post. I like Plouffe's progress. I like it a lot. But he is still really raw. His situational hitting is awful. He's got his postion because the previous guy couldn't hack it. The general manager had to call him out before his current run. And in prospect years, he is not young. But he has been really hot, and that when this streak is over, what will it be? I am really happy his average is not .130 anymore. I want to believe Plouffe is growing into a full time regular 3B, a solution at a real position of need. So cautious optimism. But what do I want for him? I want real development, not just a hot streak. If the guy just hits 20 solo HRs and he keeps leaving runners at 3rd base with 0 or 1 outs, his production is kind of wash, if that. Your never as good as hotest streak, never as bad as your worst slump. So I really don't want much different from him than what Terry Ryan wants to know -- what do the Twins have in him? His aggressive baserunning in the 2nd today was really nice to see. Keep it coming!

Interesting study. 68% seems like it would be difficult to maintain, but like a lot of good baseball studies, it gives numbers to ideas that we suspected anyway. One thought that came to me after reading this is that when speed is the primary tool of young players, they seem to get their opportunity a little earlier (and perhaps before they are as ready as the other prospects). Maybe just a secondary factor (maybe no factor at all), but iit appear to me that if speed is a big part of your game, the Twins are getting you your opportunity earlier that otherwise justified. Revere would fall into that category. Of the 3 fast trackers, he clearly doesn't feel like Mauer or Morneau, who were not only in the majors fast, but before too long picking up MVP support. Even though he doesn't figure into draft analysis, Carlos Gomez also seemed to be in the majors because his speed was there, but the rest of his game was behind the others early in their MLB careers. Speed is usually the first tool to depreciate, which would not only justify earlier first looks, but less concern over length of the contracts for this type of player. I maybe way off base on this, but just saying the study was provoking some other thoughts. The other extreme (not to beat this idea too far into the dirt) seems to apply to Morales and Plouffe. Speed is really of no significance to their career. So if the talent arrives later, its easiier to wait on them.