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Everything posted by chopper0080
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No. My arguement being that I have not seen Hughes consistently take over and dominate games by himself. That doesn't mean he can't be the best pitcher on a playoff team.
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It is always best for the long term to focus on what is working/wrong with the process rather than the result. Winning 4 games doesn't change the fact that we need to get our young players experience, need solid relief pitching and defense to keep us in close games where we have a chance. We are fourth worst in run differential, and we need to keep that in mind.
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Who cares if it is ridiculed by fans...your front office shouldn't be dictated by fans. If it doesn't work, or the time frame takes too long, then you should be fired. If it works, great. Plan B is a good enough team to compete...not much more but it isn't losing 90 games a season. We have decent if inconsistent hitting. Same goes with starting pitching. What we lack is the defense and bullpen to consistently keep games close. Plouffe is a solid fielding 3B. Santana should develop into a decent SS. Dozier and Mauer are average defensive players. Where we lack is an outfield that can limit extra bases and bloop hits. Hicks and Jennings have the athleticism to be assets in Target Field. Arcia is ok if you have speed to limit the area he needs to cover. You probably need to add more than one good arm in the bullpen, but I don't know if you want to give up the needed prospects or maybe our guys in AAA can provide quality innings. Next offseason you can add a better C or SS or SP/RP if you want/need, but you will at least have created an environment where our youth has to play themselves into starting spots, and are supported by talent around them. I still argue that trading Hughes for multiple, advanced, young arms or advanced position players might be the best scenario with how unpredictable pitching can be. His value will reach it's peak if he keeps pitching well this year, and it would be the opportune time to move him.
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Doumit...Suzuki Willingham...Arcia/FA Hughes...Berrios/FA Perkins...Soria or another FA (does it matter when you aren't winning games.) You can't state you are rebuilding, and then state you are competing. IMO, we are three years away if we commit now to just rebuilding through our farm system. In that regard...you trade Hughes knowing you have Santana and Nolasco under contract as well as Pelfrey, Gibson, and May. Trading Perkins now is dumb, so you probably hold on to him until he regains some value. I promote Hicks for his athleticism knowing Buxton is a year or two away and probably will struggle a bit. I keep Plouffe as a viable defensive 3B. If I like Polanco's progress, I might move Dozier in the offseason or next year (I understand the contract, and that isn't the Twins norm). If I want to win and compete next year, I trade prospects for a legitimate outfielder, Desmond Jennings comes to mind. I call up Hicks, and have an outfield of Arcia, Jennings, and Hicks which should be able to handle the outfield, and when Buxton is ready, he will push someone to a reserve role. I trade another prospect or two for a legitimate relief pitcher, Sergio Romo might be an option. Brian Matusz. Essentially, I do everything I can to acquire major league assets that improve my defense and relief pitching by dealing from my farm system. I understand Reed and Burdi and maybe Meyer will be in relief roles by the end of this year, or will have earned a spot next year. Once I can field and limit late game runs, I am confident that my bats and starting pitching can do enough to keep us from losing 90 games in 2016. Whichever way we go, we just need to commit to it.
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For Young Hitters The Struggle Is Real
chopper0080 replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It is tough to preach about the process or to fix things when a player is having success hitting. That is one reason it is important to identify when a player in the minors is getting by on physical ability, and needs to be challenged at a higher level. This is also the reason it would be stupid to send Arcia down to AAA. His issues need to be worked out at the major league level because he can just rely on talent in AAA. -
Legitimately, the only guys who probably SHOULD be called up in 2015 are Hicks, and some RPs. I don't really see any reason other than desperation that you would bring up Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Walker or any SPs unless someone forces their way up. There just isn't much upside in promoting these guys at this point. The roster isn't built to support them and their learning curve, and they are just going to be moving into a losing environment.
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- alex meyer
- trevor may
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The Twins determine their own ability to sign top of the market players. I'm not going to say that I don't believe a consistent winning franchise doesn't depend on a solid farm system. I do. But you can't rely on that alone because the prospect train is difficult to depend on. Signing free agents is a great way to build up movable assets in your franchise. Generally you want to target buy low players, and then an occasional high impact player. Willingham was a nice buy low option...but we never traded him. Suzuki was a nice buy low option, but we never traded him. Ryan Doumit. Hughes was a nice buy low option, and I believe you can make an argument that the Twins should trade him. Perkins should have been traded when his value was high. You say that the process is complex, and it is, but you can't acquire and hit on players and then not move them while rebuilding. The same thing applies with signing higher cost free agents. Why pay money for fringe players who are probably at peak value. Nolasco...peak value. Sanatana...peak value. Hunter...peak value. Pelfrey...I have no idea. None of these players were recently dominant players, none are young, and none are going to gain value over time. They are just plain bad signings as a whole. My point is that most GMs for teams who are losing have a tough job. The problem is that Terry Ryan has botched it up at almost every turn.
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See, I view Hicks as part of that whole siutation because I believe that filling roster spots is the main part of a roster rebuild. You can't create holes by trading assets and then not fill them...that makes the overall move bad. Trading Span and Revere were rebuild moves. Moving Hicks up quickly to fill the void was a rebuild move. Never addressing the CF position after Hicks initially failed is the problem because now our roster just has a big fat hole in it. I understand where you are coming from, but IMO, rebuilding is about filling the holes on your roster, especially those which you create by trading assets. Also, I'm leery about trading for starting pitchers who can't throw strikes. I have yet to see that move work out.
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The Twins are the only thing that limits it's resources. How do we go from a playoff contender to a 90 loss team and not have any movable assets? If you don't have assets, then you have to acquire them. You then take those and move them for more assets. You buy low on some players, and spend for some others. That is how a rebuild works. Ryan has failed on more moves than he has succeeded. And the highlighted part is way too much pressure to put on two guys at AA ball. That is a plan that fails more often than not, and we are witnessing it as we speak.
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If you are trading major league players who you do not have a replacement for in order to get power pitching prospects that fail to contribute at the MLB level, that is a dumb move and is not the move you want to make. You can trade Revere or Span, but you can't trade both if you don't have an option at CF. You will probably argue that we hda Hicks, but that is the prospect problem. Here is the breakdown Trade Revere for May = Good Trade Span for Meyer = Bad Hicks as CF = Bad. Not signing acquiring an MLB CF = Worse You just can't justify trading all of your depth, depending on unreliable prospects to succeed, and then fail to fill the hole once that prospect fails. That is poor management.
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I don't believe Ryan should get blame for Meyer's lack of development, but I do believe he is the only person who deserves blame for it being a bad trade, because if Meyer doesn't pan out, it was. I don't believe there is much more for Meyer to learn at AAA. He isn't a really young prospect, and he has had some success there. Bring him to the majors, put him in the pen, and get him some exposure to MLB hitters. If he tanks, he tanks. If he is ok, then he is ok. But a power RP is way better than wasting innings in AAA searching for control he may never develop.
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When Is It Time To Take Action?
chopper0080 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed. If there was a way I could put two athletes in the outfield with Arcia, I would play him every day and his defense would not look nearly as bad. There is nothing to do with Hunter IMO. He amplifies Arcia's lack of range on defense, is a 5 or 6 hitter, and will not be happy taking on a lesser role. If I believe Hicks is better defensively at CF than Shafer or Robinson, I call him up, and tell him I just want defense, don't care about offense. The bullpen is crap, and I rotate them out with some AAA players. If Burndi and Reed show well, they are fast tracked. I move Meyer to the MLB bullpen as well. So, in theory. Arcia-everyday Hicks-CF (defense, don't care about offense) Tonkin-RP Oliveras(sp?)-RP Meyer-RP/Long relief If either Rosario or Buxton get, I also bring them up even if it is for a little bit. I stay patient with Sano and Berrios unless I trade Plouffe or a spot start opens up and he is throwing well.- 113 replies
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- blaine boyer
- shane robinson
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I agree the expectations in 2011 were high at the start of the season, but once the writing was on the wall, the Twins needed to be self aware enough to start the process. They weren't, which has led to four consecutive 90 loss seasons. The front office was either ignorant of their situation or the moves they made to correct it were proof of their incompetence, your choice, but neither is an acceptable excuse for losing 383 games over the past four seasons.
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Twins Lose, Fans Boo, So Hope Remains
chopper0080 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Didn't they have 3 aribtration years availabel with Dozier though? Why not pay as you go while you can, and then make the deal with the progress of your farm system in mind? I agree that he earned a raise, but I just don't understand the business reasoning behind giving up so many arbitation years with a roster as bad as this is.- 136 replies
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- paul molitor
- casey fien
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Yeah, waiting on prospects is kind of like gambling your pay check every month. It can work out, but the odds of it doing so aren't great, and you can't really expect folks to understand if it doesn't. The entire front office responsible for the baseball product on the field deserves to be fired after this season, and anything short of that tells you how much the organization cares about winning. It doesn't matter what competitive progressdevelopment is made, if the team loses 90 games again, everyone deserves to go.
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Twins Lose, Fans Boo, So Hope Remains
chopper0080 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed, though I am worried about why our front office decided to extend Hughes when they had him signed to a pretty cheap, multi year, contract already. That is money that could have been spent elsewhere. Same question with Dozier. Two signs that point to an office trying to look like they are spending rather than making smart financial business decisions.- 136 replies
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- paul molitor
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When Is It Time To Take Action?
chopper0080 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I expect the Twins to execute a plan and stick to it. I expect them to be professional enough to not cave into public pressure when their crap roster of players plays like crap. I'm not excited about this team, and haven't been for years, but that is what happens when the team is ok being awful while they wait for prospects who may, or may not, develop. What I want...I want this team to try and win. I want this team to invest in solid baseball players that are worth watching. I want this team to adapt, adjust, evolve, and compete every year. I want this team to be embarrased to put an awful team on the baseball field. Essentially, I want them to operate like the St. Louis Cardinals. However, the Twins do not seem interested in doing so, and so I will see if they do what I expect of them rather than what I want.- 113 replies
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- blaine boyer
- shane robinson
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Ok, I will put on my tinfoil hat for this one. 1-Terry Ryan is a smart man and did not suddenly forget how to build a baseball team. He may be behind on some things, but not 90 losses for four seasons bad. 2-Target field got built, and the team gets significant money from corporate seats and local media contracts. 3-Twins ownership is still the same family it was. Terry Ryan is executing the plan that the owner and front office have agreed to. The money is secure, the media deal is in place, and now all we have to do is sell hope. So, the Twins are selling the prospect/farm system rebuild with one or two vet players added every year to appease though concerned about spending. They hold onto any fringe vet signing that shows success so they can show they are trying to contend, and give the fans another reason to come to the park. But, and I am certain of this, the Twins are willing to wait on their farm system, and are ok with whatever it produces. I do not believe ownership is concerned with consistently being competitive as much as they are concerned with only spending if their prospects pan out and they are close to a title. Regardless of what is said otherwise, I believe their actions reflect this plan/mindset the most accurately.
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When Is It Time To Take Action?
chopper0080 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What is funny is that for all of my critique of the Twins front office, and their roster construction, making a full flip just makes them look worse. Incompetence is just as bad ignorance. Either they were lying that the young players weren't ready, or they aren't, and this would just be another kneejerk reaction doomed for failure. If it is me, and it isn't, you just keep trotting out awful baseball until your young players force their way up. Yes, you are going to lose fans, but you made that choice in the offseason when you assembled this mess. If Hicks is better than what we have, move him up. If not, don't. If there are better RPs bring them up, but if not, don't. This is the sort of flip flopping that has caused us to make no progress in a rebuild process that is 4 years in. Make a plan. Stick with the plan. See how it plays out. If that means we aren't competitive until 2017 and Terry Ryan gets fired...oh well. That can happen when you back the prospect train.- 113 replies
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- blaine boyer
- shane robinson
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TRYING HARD to find that SILVER LINING
chopper0080 replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
1-Joe Mauer is relevent every time the Twins talk about payroll and payroll limitations. When they set a spending cap for themselves which limits their ability to sign depth and above average MLB players, Mauer's contract plays into that. That is a fact. 2-I agree, the team needed to rebuild, but why haven't they done it? Rebuilding doesn't mean 4 years in you are worse than when you started. I expect a rebuilding team to sign good players, which they haven't. If they are going the prospect route then I expect them to flip those players for more prospects. Also, if you are going the prospect route, those prospects better work out or you should be fired. You can't tank a franchise for four years, not get any results, and then be excused. Regardless of your approach, you have to recognize the uncertainty of prospects, and continue to add quality MLB players while those prospects develop. 3-You honestly believe that Twins haven't pushed Buxton and Sano as the future of this franchise? You don't believe we haven't added a legitimate MLB CF in two years because of Buxton? You don't believe the Twins have chosen to hold down their self appointed payroll budget in order to wait for their top prospects to be ready? If not, then you are essentially stating that the Twins are awful because they want to be awful rather than because they are waiting for the Sano/Buxton prospect train to roll in. 4-If Ryan isn't trying to fool fans than why did he claim this was a roster that could compete? He is either incompetent or putting forth a false narrative, you tell me which it is. Also, if we have better players available, why wouldn't they break camp with us? Why wait 6 weeks from now? What is that telling your fans? I'm never just blamed the pitching and defense. You just put those words in. I said that we are outmatched at almost every position on the field, every game we play. I said I blame this organization for not having one single thing they can count on. Their starting pitching is bad. Relief pitching is bad. defense is bad. Offense is bad. There is not one single aspect of baseball that this roster does well. -
Twins Lose, Fans Boo, So Hope Remains
chopper0080 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Somebody tell Terry Ryan that "can't hit, can't pitch, and can't field" is a poor roster building philosophy, and doesn't make you a contender.- 136 replies
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- paul molitor
- casey fien
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Twins Lose, Fans Boo, So Hope Remains
chopper0080 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed. We bought low and then gave an extension, rather than using those savings to build a better roster. The same applies to Dozier is some respects. Why are we extending players who he have under team control for multiple years? Who knows what the team is going to look like in two or three seasons, and if we are going to even want to pay Hughes and Dozier. One more example of how this rebuilding has been FUBAR'd.- 136 replies
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- paul molitor
- casey fien
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Twins Lose, Fans Boo, So Hope Remains
chopper0080 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If Hunter is your #4 hitter, you're building your roster wrong.- 136 replies
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- paul molitor
- casey fien
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Twins Lose, Fans Boo, So Hope Remains
chopper0080 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Terry Ryan is just secretly trying to recreate the movie Major League in 2016. Joe Mauer as Jake Taylor Alex Meyer as Wild Thing Rick Vaughn Bryan Buxton as Willie Mays Hayes Miguel Sano as Pedro Cerrano Brian Dozier as Roger Dorn Paul Molitor as Lou Brown- 136 replies
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- paul molitor
- casey fien
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Twins Lose, Fans Boo, So Hope Remains
chopper0080 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To be fair, Nolasco getting paid $11.5 million for his mediocrity isn't really his fault. He just took what was offered. I find it hard to believe he is trying to play this poorly.- 136 replies
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- paul molitor
- casey fien
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