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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    The problem with the offseason is that there are also more buyers. In particular, every team losing a free agent pitcher is looking for a replacement. Offseason acquisitions can be overly expensive, too. For example, when the Royals acquired Shields, or the Diamondbacks acquired Miller.
  2. markos
    Quintana is like the poster-child in any "Ace" or "Not Ace" discussion, right? He is undoubtedly very good, but in almost any playoff series he will be the underdog to the other team's #1 starter. He has been durable and effective, but don't have amazing stuff. I personally consider him an "Ace", but I have a big tent when it comes to defining who is or isn't an Ace. I respect those who disagree.
  3. markos
    This touches on the the biggest problem with the current Twins farm system. There are probably a half-dozen win-now or win-soon teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Braves, Indians, Rockies. maybe Dodgers and Cubs) that could meet or exceed the best Twins offer right now (especially with Lewis ineligible for trades). So there is really no way that they are able to win a bidding war for a guy like Archer. Their only alternative is overpay for a lesser guy. Maybe that guy is Quintana. He has been on the market for a while now, but teams like the Astros and Yankees have balked at paying the asking price. It is conceivable that a Gordon-Kiriloff-Gonsalves might be a winnable offer, even if it is arguably an overpay.
  4. markos
    Not to take anything away from your broader point about prospect rankings, but there are a lot of Nationals fans who wish they still had Giolito and Lopez to either put in their bullpen right now or trade for bullpen help.
  5. markos
    I'm skeptical the deadline premium is quite that significant. But I guess it only takes one desperate team to do something crazy.
  6. markos
    I think the Sox are going have to settle for less for Quintana than they got for Sale, and at least in my opinion both of those starting packages are equivalent to the Moancada-Kopech duo that headlined the Sale trade. I'm guessing he is traded for less, perhaps significantly less.
  7. markos
    Perhaps better examples were when the Cubs were able to trade Scott Feldman (Jake Arrieta) and Ryan Dempster (Kyle Hendricks). Even mid-rotation starters can acquire good players. Several current contenders are relying on young starters, many of whom have had durability issues in the past. It isn't crazy to think that teams like Colorado or Milwaulkee, maybe New York - teams where every win matters going forward - would want to bring in someone to solidify the middle of the rotation and provide space to allow them to manage the workload of their young starters. The Cubs might actually see Santana as an upgrade to Lackey. If the Twins can get a Gonsalves-esque prospect (fringe top-100 pitcher in AA or higher) for Santana, I think they will be better off pulling the trigger (assuming they are sub-.500 at the deadline). I think that Santana is replaceable via free agency next winter.
  8. markos
    I get the argument, I just think that it is an unnecessary risk to take with one of the few elite arms they have in the minors right now. I don't have a ton of confidence in Romero's durabilty to begin with, so having him switch to a situation where he can't do his normal warmup routine and is expected to throw as hard as he can for 20-30 pitches seems at the end of the longest season of his career makes me cringe a little bit. And if he is as good as advertised, there will be a lot of pressure to use him a lot if they are in the middle of a penant race. Obviously nothing is for sure when it comes to keeping pitchers healthy, and some limited bullpen work has worked out for other pitchers. But I just don't think the risk/reward is worth it.
  9. markos
    Isn't this a both-and situation? The bottom three in the rotation are so bad that there will be room for Gonsalves/Jorge/Romero even if they trade for a decent starter. So they can get big-league innings. But at the same time, I think it is completely crazy to rely on any of those three to be an effective contributor in late September or in playoffs, both from a performance and workload standpoint. Going out and getting a legitimate #2-3 starter does not preclude them from giving innings to the young guys. Personally, I think jerking Romero back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen is a bad idea.
  10. markos
    Does this matter one way or the other right now? Here is the list of top-15 drafted HS position players since 2012 that have started at their affiliate's lowest level: Brendan Rodgers Clint Frazier Austin meadows Carlos Correa Byron Buxton Albert Almora David Dahl Addison Russell Alex Jackson Cornelius Randolph Mickey Moniak Will Benson Kyle Tucker Josh Naylor Trent Clark Garrett Whitley Dominic Smith Reese McGuire Those that have not: Nick Gordon Alex Kirilloff Tyler Stephenson Gavin Cecchini Courtney Hawkins Edited because I missed some draftees.
  11. markos
    Advanced defensive stats like UZR and DRS both explicitly attempt to quantify that. They look at the average rates for various scenarios - runners successfully going first-to-third, tagging up, scoring from second, etc - on hits to a particular position, and then compare to how a specific fielder fared.
  12. markos
    This. It will be apparent one way or the other by July 31 - perhaps even by the All Star break. They have today off, but then they have 21 games in the following 20 days leading up to the break. That is brutal for any team - especially a team with zero pitching depth. Then after the break, they have 12 games against the Astros, Yankees, Tigers and Dodgers. If they wake up on July 27th in the wildcard, then they almost have to be buyers. They will have withstood a major test and proven to be a legitimately good team. The vast majority of trades happen after the All-Star break, so there is nothing wrong with laying the groundwork either way right now.
  13. markos
    I think Fort Myers is his ceiling for this season. For comparison, Benintendi, Schwarber, Bryant, and AJ Reed all were initially assign to their organizations' A- short-season affiliates, and none of them made it past A+ during their draft year.
  14. markos
    That's technically not true. He had an OPS over .800 in April, but by the end of May it was at .756 and hovered around .750 until the end of July. Also, Gordon's overall stat line is a little bit of a mirage right now. He has a .397 BABIP and a 22% strikeout rate. That was even more extreme in the AFL, where he had a .488 BABIP and a 25% K%. But don't get me wrong, I'm still a big Gordon fan. I was arguing a couple days ago that I thought Gordon, if he had gone to college and was did what he is doing now, would have been the #1 overall pick this year. And I think he is the no-doubt #1 prospect in the Twins system. And that he is probably a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. I'm a fan. I just don't want optimism to outpace reality.
  15. markos
    The way I read it, he seems to think (based on his own opinion and maybe that of others in the industry?) that the Twins will end up leaving bonus pool money unspent. Personally, I don't think that is surprising, as it kind of mirrored my own initial thoughts. At first glance, the combination of players that they drafted could lead people (myself included) to overestimate the amount of savings they will have to work with. For example, I am surprised to see reports that Lewis is going to sign for $6.7M - more than any other high school player has signed for and $600K more than what Moniak signed for last year as the 1-1. As someone who certainly was NOT the consensus #1 player and frequently not even in consideration as the #1 player by many analysts, that price point does seem a little strange. But it is what it is. Moving on, Rooker and Leach both fit a profile of an underslot signing as well (older college hitter; 3rd-4th round HS pitcher overdrafted). Aware of Enlow's $2M deal but not knowing anything else, it certainly seems like the Twins are potentially leaving $1M+ on the table (especially if you include the $700K extra they could spend without forfeiting a future draft pick). Anyway, I think the Twins draft seems like it is missing one more $2M+/top-30 player, but we will see once they have everyone signed.
  16. markos
    Me too. I wonder if this means that the Twins were hoping to make a run at both Enlow and Carlson with picks #76 and #106. Between Lewis and Leach, they should have way more than necessary to sign Enlow for $2M.
  17. markos
    Seattle just took their first college senior. Looks like they are serious about making a big overslot offer for Carlson.
  18. markos
    Some of the people that are upset about not picking Carlson (myself included) are upset because the Twins passed (twice!) on a player that analysts universally had ranked as one of the top-20 players in this draft. It has nothing to do with where he was from, and everything to do with skipping over a very talented player.
  19. markos
    Your mileage may vary, but I take "most scouts believe he can stick at short" to be damning faint praise for a prospect. If a kid doesn't get a firm, no-doubt endorsement that he can play SS in the big leagues, I don't have a lot of confidence. The path the majors is littered with prospects who "might stick at short". Eric Longenhagen: "Scouts are split on where that's going to be with most predicting Lewis will move off of his current shortstop and into center field." Keith Law: "he's a shortstop who is almost universally assumed to be moving off the position, with most people -- myself included -- assuming he's headed for center field." Baseball America: "Lewis said all of his role models have played shortstop and hopes to stay there, but there are scouts who see center field as his best future position." "He has the quick feet and plus arm strength required to play shortstop, though scouts aren’t certain that he’ll make the necessary adjustments as he continues to fill out and the speed of the game advances." John Sickels: "Optimists believe he can remain at shortstop due to his instincts, while pessimists think his arm will work better at second base. Everyone agrees he should show the range to handle center, but opinions vary on if his arm would be sufficient for right field if he slows down too much to handle center when he gets older."
  20. markos
    Very few draft and prospect analysts have expressed confidence that Lewis will stay at shortstop.
  21. markos
    I just don't get it...
  22. markos
    No player has ever signed for more than $6.8M. How much of the $7.7M does everyone think Lewis will sign for? I can't imagine more than $6.5M. Moniak signed for only $6.1M last year.
  23. markos
    The Indians managed to put together a good rotation without relying on their top picks to be pitchers.
  24. markos
    Yeah, there really is no such thing. Every pitcher has a non-zero chance that his elbow/shoulder will fall apart. Every single one. It comes with being a pitcher. I think teams are getting better at identifying and preventing injuries, but it certainly isn't perfect yet.
  25. markos
    Where do you think Gordon would get drafted today if he was a college junior and, let's say, the third best hitter in the SEC?
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