If you look at innings and runs rather than starts and ERA, it isn't unreasonable to foresee a 100 run improvement from the pitching staff next season. I did an analysis a few weeks ago, and was able to get a 113 run improvement: Pitching Improvement - Twinkie Town The short version: if you look at the 10 pitchers who (hopefully) won't be back next year (Liriano, Hendriks, Blackburn, Pavano, Gray, Marquis, Manship, Duensing as a starter, Walters, Maloney), there is a lot of room for improvement. Collectively, they averaged almost 7 runs per 9 innings over 580 innings. If those 580 innings are gobbled up by the new arms (Harden, Correia, Worley, Gibson, Pelfrey), the new arms average 5 runs per 9 innings (an okay rate, but not good or great), and everyone else on the staff matches last year's performance (yes, a lot of ifs), then the Twins would give up 113 less runs than last season. I think allowing 100 less runs next year is achievable.